The Prettiest And Ugliest Contracts Of July 1
Although hindsight is usually the only way to be certain as to when a deal flops, it seems reasonable to make an immediate assessment as to what deals will backfire or pay dividends. Today was a far more reserved July 1st than the league has accustomed itself to, but there are still a few contracts that stick out – for better or for worse.
Pretty: Patrick Sharp – Chicago Blackhawks – $800,000, 1 year.
This doesn’t seem fair. Chicago has been trapped in cap jail, and suddenly, here arrives a productive asset at nearly no cost. Sharp, coming off an injury-filled season, is coming back to the Windy City at a dirt-cheap rate. If he can even find half of the production he had during his last outing, this is a monumental steal. There’s no risk here, and a ton of upside. He still has the hands and hockey IQ to contribute.
Ugly: Steve Mason – Winnipeg Jets – $4,1 MM per, 2 years
Winnipeg was seemingly the last team standing when the music stopped playing. With a goaltending market that inspired no one, the Jets decided today to place their faith in Steve Mason. Coming off a .908 save percentage year, it’s hard to see him doing much worse. But behind the Winnipeg defense, it’s hard to see him doing much better. The pricetag is what really seals this as poor value relative to play. Luckily, if things don’t pan out, it’s only for two seasons. Connor Hellebuyck better prepare himself just in case. Taken in tandem with the highly questionable Dmitry Kulikov contract, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff maybe should have taken the day off.
Pretty: Radim Vrbata – Florida Panthers – $2.5 MM per, 1 year
Vrbata is absolutely a top-six winger, and he was signed for bottom-six money. He can assist a powerplay, and slot up and down a lineup as needed. Florida desperately needed to re-coup some scoring on the cheap after letting so many of their top point-getters walk or be lost to Vegas. With bonuses added in, this becomes a good prove-it deal for Vrbata as well. Solid value was found here for both parties and for a 20 goal, 55 point player, Florida will happily run away from this one.
Ugly: Trevor Daley – Detroit – $3.18MM per, 3 years
Daley was bereft of ice time in these playoffs, and he was competing with some really underperforming defensemen. It’s not like he had a good regular season either – his Corsi For % fell off a proverbial cliff (53.7 to 46.1), and the eye test certainly agreed. He put up decent points, 5 goals and 14 assists through 56 contests, and he can still skate well enough. But long are the days where he can make a difference on special teams or drive an offense with confidence. His turnover rate and inconsistency are not what Detroit needed to stabilize the back-end, and Daley will be 36 at the conclusion of the deal. The last time Daley cut a lucrative free agent deal, Chicago had to offload him due to poor play.
Pretty: Kevin Shattenkirk – New York Rangers – $6.65MM per, 4 years
The money could end up being a slight overpayment, but at the moment it is solid value. Shattenkirk finished 4th in points among defensemen last season and St. Louis never looked the same after he left. He could instantly and single-handedly transform the Rangers’ defense from the jumbled mess they were last season. He will reliably feed the puck to the forward group, and be the quarterback of the Ranger powerplay. What makes this a beautiful deal, however, is the term. If Shattenkirk has a bad year or doesn’t fit the system, New York is not on the hook for eternity. One of the biggest pitfalls in free agency with the bigger names is offering far too many years on contracts. Time and time again, it burns teams who were looking to attract a big fish. GM Jeff Gorton deserves credit here for not going insane with the length, although he was helped by Shattenkirk’s strong desire to return home.
Ugly: Dan Girardi – Tampa Bay – $3 MM per, 2 years
Nothing about this deal makes sense. Girardi earned his buyout from New York through brutal play and horrible possession numbers. Of all the NHL defensemen who played more than 40 games, only Rasmus Ristolainen of Buffalo and Luke Schenn of Arizona had worse Corsi Against per 60 minutes – Girardi finished with 65.11 (versus a 51.67 CF60). By no metric other than shot blocks was he an effective player. He might be worth a flier in hopes of regaining form, but he’s not worth much more. This agreement is made even worse by the fact that Girardi will be stealing valuable playing time from a solid young defenseman like Slater Koekkoek or Jake Dotchin. Combined with the Chris Kunitz signing, this is a team that didn’t get any younger, or any better.
Biggest One-For-One Trades Of The Past 10 Years
For the first time since his shocking trade last June, Taylor Hall is facing off in Edmonton on Thursday night.
The Oilers-Devils trade was one of two major one-for-one trades that took place that day, the other being P.K. Subban for Shea Weber just 17 minutes later. Despite the evidence of June 29, one-for-one trades are exceedingly rare in today’s NHL.
In honor of Hall’s return to Edmonton, let’s take a look at some of the more notable one-for-one swaps of the past decade:
February 26, 2008 – Andrew Ladd for Tuomo Ruutu — The Chicago Blackhawks and Carolina Hurricanes swapped former top-ten picks at the 2007-08 trade deadline. Nearly nine years later, the trade can be classified as a win for the Blackhawks: Ruutu did score 216 points in 378 games with the Hurricanes but the team only made the playoffs once in his tenure there. Meanwhile, the Blackhawks were just two years away from winning the first Stanley Cup of their modern dynasty; with a Stanley Cup already under his belt, Ladd played a key role in helping the young Hawks learn how to win. Ladd scored 99 points 184 games in Chicago before being sacrificed to the Salary Cap Gods after their 2010 championship.
July 3, 2011 – Dany Heatley for Martin Havlat — Heatley and Havlat were both superstars of the early 21st-century, but neither player was at that level in 2011 when the Sharks and Wild made this trade. The Sharks were looking to improve their roster with hopes of getting to the Stanley Cup Finals after yet another playoff disappointment, but Havlat appeared in just eight playoff games over three years in San Jose. He never played more than 48 games in a season, or scored more than 27 points. Heatley had 82 and 64 points in his two years in San Jose, but was unable to consistently score in Minnesota, finishing his three-year stint with a 28-point season, his last full season in the NHL. Heatley also caused salary cap troubles, as he was unable to be bought-out after his second season due to injury, costing the Wild their last chance to use a compliance buyout on the declining Heatley.
June 23, 2012 – James Van Riemsdyk for Luke Schenn — Maple Leafs fans hoping for their team to trade Van Riemsdyk for a top defenseman may want to look at the trade that brought the power winger to Toronto. Then-GM Brian Burke traded Schenn, a right-handed third-pairing defenseman just four seasons removed from being the fifth-overall selection. Both players were coming off down seasons, as Schenn struggled in a third-pairing role while Van Riemsdyk scored 24 points in 43 games after a 40-point sophomore season. The trade was a clear win for Toronto, as Van Riemsdyk has 211 points in 289 games as a first-line winger while Schenn scored 42 points in 213 games in Philadelphia as a below-average possession player. Schenn was traded last season and signed a cheap show-me deal with Arizona as a UFA. The trade is yet another example of the trade values of average defensemen and scoring wingers.
January 6, 2016 – Seth Jones for Ryan Johansen — The major trade was the first big one-for-one trade in nearly four years, and was a sign of things yet to come in 2016. While it’s too early to declare a definitive winner, as both teams look like they got what they needed with the swap, the early results put Columbus slightly ahead. Jones has 38 points in 75 games so far with the surprising Blue Jackets, who currently sit in first place in NHL standings. The Predators haven’t been as successful as they would have hoped, though Johansen has 63 points in 83 games in Music City. He’s growing into a legitimate first-line center on a contending team, which is what the Predators hoped for when they made the swap. Nashville GM David Poile was initially criticized for trading his young defenseman as Shea Weber showed signs of regression, but that was addressed by on of the below trades.
June 29, 2016 – Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson — The decision to trade Hall was not popular at the time, and is still the most talked-about trade in Edmonton since Chris Pronger asked for a trade in 2006. The Oilers have finally turned the corner and currently sit in third in the Pacific Division. Larsson is a big part of the much-improved defense core, but has just seven points in 43 games. Hall is leading the Devils in scoring with 25 points in 32 games, but the Devils’ offense has not been able to outscore their defensive issues. It must be frustratingly familiar for Hall, who was in a similar situation in Edmonton for six seasons. While the Oilers gave up value, it could be argued that the Devils miss Larsson’s defensive ability more than Edmonton misses Hall’s offence.
June 29, 2016 — Shea Weber for P.K. Subban — After a tough 2015-16, changes were expected in Montreal. But few expected Subban to be the one to go. Like the Hall-Larsson trade made 17 minutes earlier, the Canadian team was panned initially. However, Weber is on pace for a career-high in points while the Canadiens have rebounded to lead the Atlantic Division at the half-way point. Unfortunately for Subban, he’s been injured for much of the season and may require surgery. The Canadiens are the winners of this trade six months in, but considering the four years Weber has on Subban, the verdict will slowly change over the next few years. If either one of these teams win a Stanley Cup in the next few years, that would likely be the deciding factor in naming a winner.
Roster Crunch: Arizona’s Defense Corps
With training camps well underway, there are plenty of interesting battles for roster spots throughout the league. One of the more intriguing ones is happening in Arizona as the Coyotes now find themselves with a plethora of defensemen battling for a spot on their back end. Here’s a closer look at their blueline battle.
Locks
Oliver Ekman-Larsson – He is undoubtedly their number one defenseman and will be used in all situations. He’s also on a cap friendly deal for a top rearguard coming in with an AAV of just $5.5MM for the next three years.
Alex Goligoski – New GM John Chayka wasted little time with the former Dallas Star. He acquired his negotiating rights and quickly inked him to a five year, $27.375MM contract to be another anchor for their back end.
Connor Murphy – The former first rounder has seen his ice time increase each season and he surpassed the 20 minute average last year. He also signed a long-term deal this offseason, getting an average of $3.85MM over the next six years.
Zbynek Michalek – After rejoining the Coyotes last offseason, Michalek spent most of the year in a third pairing role, one he’s likely to reprise this season. While he could potentially be deemed expendable, he carries a cap hit of $3.2MM which may be difficult to unload in the current market and it’s unlikely that they would bury his contract in the minors given their status as a low-budget team.
Luke Schenn – Chayka brought the 26 year old in on a two year deal this offseason with a decent value at $1.25MM per year. While he projects as a third pairing player, it’s unlikely he’s going to get pushed off the roster so quickly after signing with the team.
Michael Stone – Stone had a career year last season and spent a lot of time on Arizona’s top pairing. While he may not have as big of a role this year, he’s a sure fire bet to start in their top four.
That’s six blueliners that are pretty much locks to start the season with the Coyotes, leaving them one or two (at most) spots to fill from a group of six other defensemen who could conceivably make a run at one of those positions.
2016-17 Season Preview: Arizona Coyotes
With training camps opening around the league and the new season less than three weeks away, we continue our series of team previews with a look at the Arizona Coyotes.
Last Season: 35 – 39 – 8 (78 points), fourth place in the Pacific Division. Missed the playoffs.
Salary Cap Space Remaining: $2.347MM (per Cap Friendly). The Coyotes will be able to free up to an additional $10.5MM by placing Dave Bolland and Chris Pronger on LTIR.
Key Newcomers: Alex Goligoski (D) – trade with Dallas; Jamie McGinn (LW) – free agent from Anaheim; Luke Schenn (D) – free agent from L.A. Kings; Radim Vrbata (RW) – free agent from Vancouver; Lawson Crouse (LW) – trade with Florida.
Key Departures: Antoine Vermette (C) – contract buyout – signed with Anaheim as free agent; Alex Tanguay (LW) – free agent; Boyd Gordon (C) – signed with Philadelphia as a free agent.
Players to Watch: Mike Smith and Goligoski. The Coyotes allowed the third most goals in the entire league which was a function of substandard goaltending and a mediocre defense corps. GM John Chayka addressed the defense, dealing a fifth-round pick to Dallas in exchange for the negotiating rights to Goligoski and subsequently signed the veteran puck-mover to a five-year contract.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson is the Coyotes #1 blue liner but Goligoski adds a reliable veteran to the mix who can play in all situations and will strengthen the team’s top-four. Last season he tallied 37 points for the Stars and has averaged 40 points for every 82 games he has played during his career. Goligoski was a horse on the back end in 2015-16, averaging nearly 24 minutes a game for the Central Division champs.
Meanwhile, the team is hopeful Smith will be healthy and provide steady play between the pipes for the Coyotes. The team finished 23rd overall in goalie save percentage with Smith appearing in just 32 games. On a promising note, Smith led all NHL goalies with 15 or more games played in 2015-16 in High Danger Save % (HDsV%) with a mark of 87.4% and has stopped at least 84% of those high quality chances in three of the last four seasons.
Smith was superlative in 2011-12 – the last season the Coyotes qualified for the playoffs – winning 38 games and finishing with a Sv% of 93.0%. He has the ability to single-handedly keep the Coyotes in games and if Goligoski can help clean up the defensive end, the Coyotes will be a contender.
Storylines: The John Chayka experiment and the development of the kids. Chayka is not only the league’s youngest GM but he’s also the first to come from a more analytically-oriented background. Fair or not, how the Coyotes perform with the roster he has assembled will have a major impact on how analytics and advanced stats are perceived in the league. If he can build a winner in Arizona with a limited payroll, it might encourage more clubs to actively embrace the role of analytics in the game.
By all accounts Chayka is a bright guy and most of his offseason moves were met with positive reactions from hockey pundits. His actual reliance on analytics in roster construction may be overstated but there is no question old school managers and coaches will be watching with interest.
Although improved goaltending and more contributions from the club’s blue liners will be important, perhaps the key to this upcoming season is the continued development of its young talent. Max Domi and Anthony Duclair are already well on their way to becoming stars in this league but the team does lack an established #1 center. Fortunately, they do have Dylan Strome, the third overall pick in the 2015 entry draft and one of the game’s top prospects. Strome has been among the most explosive scorers in junior hockey, totaling 240 points in 124 games with Erie of the OHL, averaging nearly two points per contest. No one expects the young pivot to immediately fill the void at #1 but if he can establish himself as a legitimate NHL regular it will take some of the pressure of the team’s returning centers. Assuming Duclair, Domi and the team’s other young players take the next step in their development and Strome proves to be ready for the NHL, Arizona has a realistic shot at playoff contention.
Kris Russell In “Serious Discussions” With Eight Teams
After Darren Dreger mentioned on TSN 1050 Tuesday that unrestricted free agent Kris Russell could still possibly be a fit for the Maple Leafs this season, he took to Twitter to clarify his stance, and the news he has about Russell as the season approaches. Dreger reports that the defenseman is in serious discussions with eight teams, and is expected to sign before camp starts.
While Dreger gives no hints on who these teams are, one can guess at least the Maple Leafs are still among them if he would go out of his way to theorize about them. We originally ranked Russell 12th among our top-50 free agents, assuming that his analytical detractors weren’t so widespread among league front offices by this point. That doesn’t seem to be the case however, as he’s languished deep into the summer without a deal and will likely have to sign one much lower than our expectation.
We predicted he’d land with the Bruins, though that now seems a fantasy after the team brought back John-Michael Liles and Joe Morrow on one-year deals. An interesting possibility is the Arizona Coyotes, who while at the forefront of hockey analytics, may still see his reduced market as a net-win, like they did with Luke Schenn earlier in the summer.
Either way, Russell will likely sign a shorter term deal to try and rebuild his value, something many teams could be interested in as injuries start piling up in training camp. Russell still is a capable NHL defenseman, though probably best suited to a third pairing at this point in his career.
Columbus Extends Three Front Office Members
After a year that saw the Columbus Blue Jackets come 27th in the NHL with only 76 points, trade away one of their best young players (albeit for another excellent youngster), and shock the hockey world by picking Pierre-Luc Dubois at third overall instead of the consensus pick, Jesse Puljujarvi, the three highest ranking members of the front office have signed two-year extensions. President of Hockey Ops John Davidson along with GM Jarmo Kekalainen and AGM Bill Zito are now all under contract through the 2018-19 season, according to a report from the Columbus Dispatch.
Davidson, the former player and broadcaster, was brought over from St. Louis in 2012 (where he had held the same title) to run the hockey operations in Columbus. Under Davidson, the club has missed the playoffs in three of four seasons, while being knocked out in the first round during their lone appearance. While immensely respected in the hockey world, he had similar trouble in St. Louis, with that franchise experiencing arguably its worst era in team history.
Kekalainen was brought in by Davidson in 2013, after previously working with him in St. Louis. Thought of as an excellent scout and draft analyst, Kekalainen was part of the team that selected Alex Pietrangelo, T.J. Oshie, David Perron and David Backes among others. His biggest criticism now is that he passed on Puljujarvi, though his track record may suggest he knows something many do not. In 2008, many had Kelowna defenseman Luke Schenn or Russian forward Nikita Filatov ranked higher than Pietrangelo, but the scouting team made the right decision in the end, and picked their future captain.
Chayka Speaks About Lawson Crouse, Dawn Braid
Arizona Coyotes GM John Chayka joined Jeff Blair on Sportsnet 590 yesterday to talk about his coaching hires and the big trade from yesterday. The 27-year old hired three coaches including the NHL’s first full-time female coach, and dealt two draft picks for Dave Bolland and Lawson Crouse.
On why he decided to make the deal:
It’s about Lawson Crouse. It’s about a guy who we think is a rare asset. Usually when you acquire a power forward like this you’re giving up something in terms of speed or skill. We think that not only is he speedy and skilled, he’s going to enhance that for our group as well.
Usually these guys (power forwards) when they’re at the caliber Lawson is, they’re hard to find. Usually they don’t become available until they’re in their thirties. At that point you’re paying a premium for a guy who is not on the right side of his career, and we didn’t want to do that.
Coyotes Sign Jakob Chychrun To Entry Level Contract
Craig Morgan of AZSports tweeted that the Arizona Coyotes have inked the second of their two, 2016 first-round draft choices, defenseman Jakob Chychrun, to a three-year ELC. Chychrun, selected 16th overall in last month’s draft, likely has only an outside chance at cracking the Coyotes roster on opening night as the club already has eight blue liners with NHL experience under contract. It’s far more likely the team will elect to return him to his junior club for more seasoning.
Originally slated to select 20th overall, the Coyotes moved up four slots in a deal with Detroit that also saw Arizona absorb Pavel Datyuk‘s $7.5MM cap charge. The trade allowed the Wings to clear significant cap space from their books while moving back just a few positions in the draft. Detroit also picked up a second-round choice, 53rd overall, which the team used on defenseman Filip Hronek. Meanwhile, Arizona put themselves in position to take a player they liked tremendously and had even considered drafting with the seventh overall selection.
Chychrun played his junior hockey with the Sarnia Sting of the OHL. In 62 OHL contests, Chychrun tallied 49 points and boasted a +23 plus-minus rating. His father, Jeff, appeared in 262 NHL games, spending time with Philadelphia, Los Angeles, Edmonton and Pittsburgh in a career spanning parts of eight seasons.
First year GM John Chayka has been among the league’s busiest executives this summer. Chayka added D Alex Goligoski via trade and LW Jamie McGinn and D Luke Schenn as free agents to bolster a young but talented roster. He also re-signed team captain Shane Doan and restricted free agent defenders Michael Stone and Connor Murphy to new contracts. Whether these additions will help get the Coyotes back into the postseason or not remains to be seen but Chayka has shown he is unafraid to make impact moves so far.
Latest On Connor Murphy
While news has started trickling out about the Coyotes’ inability to sign RFA Tobias Rieder, Arizona may be closing in on one of their other remaining unsigned players. Craig Morgan of AZSports reports that Brian Bartlett, the agent for restricted free agent Connor Murphy expects to have a deal done by the end of the week.
Murphy, 23, saw his role with the Coyotes improve drastically last season especially following the trade of Keith Yandle. After the trade, he logged over 22:30 per night (up from 19:50 pre-trade) and held his own against tougher opponents. The bone-crushing hitter isn’t an offensive or possession dynamo, though he did contribute 17 points last season, and saw some limited powerplay action.
Even with the addition of Luke Schenn, Murphy will probably slot in beside another newcomer in Alex Goligoski on the second pairing next season, with fellow unsigned RFA Michael Stone skating alongside superstar Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Obviously, these pairings will be settled in camp, but Murphy will try to continue his strong development from first-round pick (20th overall in 2011) to top-four defenseman.
Western Notes: Chayka, Sydor, Eberle
When the Arizona Coyotes gave then 26-year old John Chayka their GM job, many in the hockey world cringed at the thought of the analytic community finally having a poster boy at the top of an NHL franchise. Chayka promised to bring with him the newer possession-based analysis of NHL players, and today summed it up quite nicely in an interview with Dan Rosen of NHL.com:
“The philosophy is fairly simple. It’s when we don’t have the puck, recover the puck as quickly as possible. There are all kinds of different forms where you can gain possession of the puck, some of them are physical and some of them are non-physical, so I think you need a blend to have both. Once you get the puck back it’s to transition the puck. Defense isn’t about defending, it’s about getting the puck in the forwards’ hands and getting the puck moving into the offensive zone. It’s about transitioning.”
The phrase “defense isn’t about defending” will stick out as a sort of mantra for the analytics push, as the league continues to move away from players who can impose themselves physically in their own end, but can’t move the puck when they end up with it. His team has added Alex Goligoski, a possession darling who moves the puck well, but has also signed Luke Schenn and Jamie McGinn, both players who aren’t so revered for their new-age skills. It’ll be interesting to watch what Chayka does in the future, and whether he breeds a level of success rarely seen in the desert of Arizona.
- The Chicago Wolves of the AHL have hired former NHLers Darryl Sydor and Daniel Tkaczuk as assistant coaches for 2016-17, adding to a group that is led by Craig Berube. The St. Louis Blues affiliate went 33-35-8 last season, and will look to improve on that record this year. Sydor, a 19-year NHL veteran played in over 1200 games in his career, and has been coaching as an assistant with the Minnesota Wild for the past five seasons. Tkaczuk, an AHL journeyman who made it into just 19 NHL games during his career, coached with the Kitchener Rangers of the OHL last season.
- Jordan Eberle has hired the “Shot Doc” to help him with his shooting ability for next season. Ron Johnson, a skills coach who has worked with Joe Pavelski and Ryan Kesler in the past has been known for improving things like grip mechanics and puck protection. If Eberle can improve on the 14.5% shooting percentage he put up last season, he could climb back above the 30-goal mark for the second time in his career. Eberle has 145 career goals in 425 games, and is a near-lock for 25 each season.