Cost Per Point: The Best Value Deals In The NHL
When working with a salary cap, especially one that has not been increasing as expected in recent year, it is vital for general managers to get the most production out of their players. Teams with players who meet the expected level of production implied by their contracts and teams that lack wasted dollars in bad, expensive deals are often the same teams that thrive in today’s NHL. Forget market size or free agent appeal, the key to a winning franchise nowadays is getting the best bang for your buck on every player on the roster. While no player can be fully quantified by their scoring, cost per point is an easy way to look at which players are producing at the most team-friendly rate and which have been more of a cap space killer than a positive member of the team. Thanks to CapFriendly, that information is readily available to fans and NHL executives alike.
The benchmark for this metric is about $100K/point, as GM’s expect those big-time forwards and offensive defenseman who they award with $6MM, $7MM, and $8MM per year contracts to be putting up 60, 70, or 80 points respectively. For the second year in a row, St. Louis Blues superstar Vladimir Tarasenko was the poster boy for this standard, coming in at exactly $100K/point with 75 points on a $7.5MM deal. Winnipeg’s Bryan Little and New Jersey’s Adam Henrique are two other notable names that hit the mark exactly, while phenoms like Sidney Crosby and Duncan Keith landing close to the $100K/point mark show that it is an accurate expectation.
However, the exception to the rule is obviously entry-level contracts. It is no secret that drafting and developing well is the best way to improve you team, beginning with affordable scoring from players on their rookie deals. Nowhere is that more apparent than in cost per point, where nine of the top ten and 17 of the top 20 best contracts were rookie deals. To no one surprise, 20-year-old MVP Connor McDavid and his 100 points on a $925K entry-level contract was far and away the best bargain in hockey. McDavid cost the Oilers only $9,250 per point in 2016-17. That will all change soon, as McDavid is set to begin an eight-year, $100MM contract in 2018-19, after which a 100-point campaign will cost Edmonton $125,000/point, closer to the expectations of a standard contract. For now, the Oilers can enjoy one more year of McDavid likely being the best deal in the NHL, as well as the best player. Entry-level deals joining McDavid in the top ten last year (in order) were Viktor Arvidsson, Artemi Panarin, teammate Leon Draisaitl, Conor Sheary, David Pastrnak, Auston Matthews, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Patrik Laine. Not all entry-level deals are created equal, so while Draisaitl and Pastrnak were second and fourth respectively in entry-level scoring, they were also on the ELC maximum deal of $925K and of slightly lesser value to their teams than the likes of Arvidsson ($632K) and Sheary ($667.5K). Panarin had the best contract in the league in 2015-16 and fell only to third with $10,980/point for the Chicago Blackhawks. Now in Columbus and on a two-year, $12MM deal, the Blue Jackets have to hope that they can continue to get 70+ point seasons out of him to maximize the value of that deal.
So, entry-level contracts aside, who was the best contract in hockey last season? Another easy answer, former Blue Jacket gamble Sam Gagner. After a horrendous 2015-16 campaign with the Philadelphia Flyers, Gagner struggled to find a new team last summer, eventually settling on a $650K “show me” deal with Columbus. Right away people tagged that contract, for a six-time 40+ point scorer, as an absolute bargain, even if Gagner simply bounced back to normal production. He did one better, posting a career-high 50 points for the Jackets and coming in at $13K/point, good enough for sixth in the NHL. Gagner has since moved on to the Vancouver Canucks, signing a three-year, $9.45MM contract on July 1st. However, if he is able to continue to produce at 40-50 point levels over that deal, his $3.15MM cap hit will remain a great bargain deal. Behind Gagner, another player on the move this summer, former Florida Panther and current Vegas Golden Knight Jonathan Marchessault had the 13th-ranked cost per point last year at $14,706/point. Marchessault had a breakout year, netting 51 points in the first season of a two-year, $1.5MM deal. Rather than take advantage of one more $750K season for a 30-goal scorer, the Panthers allowed Marchessault to be selected in the Expansion Draft and Vegas surely hopes he continues to be one of the best values in hockey in 2017-18. The final contract in the top 20 not belonging to an entry-level player, and the only 35+ veteran contract in the top 50, belongs to Marchessault’s replacement in Florida, Radim Vrbata. Vrbata returned home to Arizona last season after a down year in Vancouver the season prior, and the swift 36-year old proceeded to score 55 points, more than double his previous year’s total. On a one-year deal with a $1MM base salary, that only cost the Coyotes $18,182/point last season. Now at a base salary of $2.5MM in Florida, the Panthers hope that Vrbata isn’t starting to slow down just yet. Other impressive value contracts included Patrick Eaves, whose breakout season in Dallas led to a trade and subsequent extension with the Anaheim Ducks, Derek Ryan, who shocked the hockey world with 29 points for the Carolina Hurricanes in his first full NHL season at age 30, and a quartet of recently re-signed RFAs in Richard Panik, Ryan Dzingel, Ryan Spooner, and Jordan Martinook.
With the good comes the bad, and there were certainly some poor value contracts in the NHL last year. Many of the worst belong to players who were injured or AHL depth players that saw only limited time. With zero points in 13 games with a $1.25MM cap hit, Tampa Bay Lightning winger Erik Condra‘s value was not even quantifiable it was so bad, and at the highest salary of any player who went pointless last season. Limited to just 18 games with only four points, another Bolts forward, Ryan Callahan, was one of the worst values due to injury with $1.45MM per point on his $5.8MM cap hit. However, the truly worst contract in the NHL has to belong to a player that player a majority of the season. Sadly for a Detroit fan base that is already feeling pretty down-and-out, that designation belongs to Red Wings defenseman Danny DeKeyser, who began a six-year, $30MM extension by scoring about a third less points for the third season in a row. With 12 points in 82 games at $5MM, DeKeyser’s $416.7K/point is pretty ugly. The Buffalo Sabres struck out twice on the blue line, with both Dmitry Kulikov (five points in 47 games at $4.33MM) and Josh Gorges (six points in 66 games at $3.9MM) coming in at $866.7K/point and $650K/point respectively, though neither is known as a major point producer. The worst forward contract? Andrew Desjardins may not have been relied upon as a full-time player with much ice time last season with the Chicago Blackhawks, but with only one point in 46 games, $800K/point, it’s not difficult to see why he remains an unsigned free agent.
While statistics and analytics in hockey are normally geared toward displaying on-ice production, it is always interesting to look at the game from a business perspective. It is important for teams and fans alike to understand not just the absolute of how a player is producing, but the relative value of that production based on how much money that player is being paid. In a salary cap league, there is nothing more important that production value, and as the game grows the focus will only further tighten on scoring as a function of dollars and the cost per point metric.
Pressure On The Strome Brothers In 2017-18
If Philadelphia Flyers prospect Matthew Strome somehow makes the roster out of camp this fall, it will come as a pleasant surprise to the team and the fans. Strome fell to the fourth round, 106th overall, in the NHL Draft this past June after many believed he would be a first or second-round prospect. Yet, Strome does possess great size and compete level for his age and has the vision and finishing ability to have an outside shot at a bottom-six winger slot for Philly. However, if Strome is simply returned to the OHL’s Hamilton Bulldogs for another year, maybe two, no one will be upset. There are no expectations for the youngest Strome at this point in time.
The same cannot be said for his older brothers. New Edmonton Oiler Ryan Strome and Arizona Coyotes prospect Dylan Strome face some serious stakes in 2017-18. Both are still young at 24 and 20 respectively, but neither has lived up to expectations thus far. With each facing the daunting task of playing a key offensive role for their teams this season, the time is now to show that they have what it takes.
In many ways, the Oilers’ recent trade of Jordan Eberle to the New York Islanders for Ryan Strome was a salary cap dump. Eberle was set to make $6MM this year and next, while Strome will be paid just $2.5MM this season. Eberle is also twice the player that Strome is, both subjectively in the minds of most hockey pundits and objectively given the pairs scoring stats in each of the past two seasons. The fact of the matter is that the Oilers were facing a cap crunch with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in need of super-expensive long-term extensions and with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Milan Lucic, and their top-four defenseman all already signed to big-money deals. Someone had to go and the choice was Eberle. However, Edmonton has now lost the only player that has been a consistent scorer for them through many dark years and a crucial member of the top six. Strome may not hold up in comparison, but it is no secret that he is expected to contribute this season and vastly improve from his numbers with the Islanders. After a 50-point campaign and +23 rating in his first full pro season in 2014-15, many thought Strome was on his way to stardom. Two years later, he’s scored just 58 points over two seasons and is a -17 in that span. Strome hit a wall in New York and looked lost in the Isles’ lineup. Edmonton presents a brand new opportunity for him to show that his 5th overall pick status in 2011 and early NHL returns were no fluke. While Strome is a natural center, the Oilers are sorely lacking a right-shot offensive threat in the top six with Eberle gone. Rather than bury Strome on the third line, it seems very likely that he could instead move from center to right wing, where he spent some time in New York, and skate alongside the likes of McDavid, Draisaitl, or Nugent-Hopkins next season. With that role will come the pressure to produce alongside such high-quality players. Strome must improve on his 30 points from 2016-17 and has to become a better even strength player. If he doesn’t, the Oilers may regret this deal as they struggle to find secondary scoring and Strome’s future may be in doubt this time next year as he faces restricted free agency.
Dylan Strome has always been property of the Arizona Coyotes, but playing with the team this season may feel like new scenario. The former Erie Otters superstar has played in just seven NHL games since being drafted third overall in 2015 and has just one assist to show for it. Once considered the Coyotes #1 center of the future, Strome will enter the mix this year as somewhat of an afterthought. The team went out and acquired Derek Stepan from the New York Rangers, who should be the team’s top center and offensive leader for the time being. There is also Calder speculation surrounding young center Clayton Keller who, despite being drafted a year after and four spots later than Strome, has seemingly passed him up on the organizational depth chart. With promising young players like Max Domi, Anthony Duclair Brendan Perlini, Christian Fischer, Christian Dvorak, Lawson Crouse, and Nick Merkley also in the mix, not to mention solid veterans like Jordan Martinook, Tobias Rieder, and Jamie McGinn, it may be hard for Strome to find a top-nine role, nevertheless be a featured forward. Yet, the rebuild in Arizona cannot last forever and “promise” will only hold up for so long on a Coyotes team that should be taking the next step soon. If the ‘Yotes don’t improve in 2017-18 and Strome’s rookie season is underwhelming, many may point to his lack of development as the reason why the rebuild has shown few results. While it is asking a lot to compare Strome to the two picks ahead of him in 2015 – Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel – the early success of those after him, like Mitch Marner, Mikko Rantanen, Pavel Zacha, Travis Konecny, Anthony Beauvillier, Sebastian Aho, and more, is likely already frustrating both Arizona fans and executives. Another season without results could be disastrous for his tenure in the desert. The pressure is officially on.
If Ryan and Dylan Strome live up to their draft hype and ample ability this year, the Strome family could be the talk of the hockey town in 2017-18. However, if neither can take advantage of their opportunities this year, there could be some serious doubt cast upon the career prospects of both. Then again, at least there’s always Matthew to watch for.
Oilers Re-Sign Dillon Simpson
Defenseman Dillon Simpson and the Edmonton Oilers agreed to a one-year, two-way deal today per a tweet from TVA Sports’ Renaud Lavoie. CapFriendly has the deal at $675K.
Last season, Simpson skated for the Oilers in three games. He spent the majority of the season with the Bakersfield Condors, playing 53 games and registering 11 points (3-8). Simpson is a native of Edmonton and surely hopes to see more time with the Oilers in 2017-18.
With the signing, the Oilers only have one free agent signing left: Leon Draisaitl
Free Agent Focus: Edmonton Oilers
The free agent period is now less than one week away from opening up and there are several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. Here is a breakdown of the Edmonton Oilers’ free agent situation.
Key Restricted Free Agents: F Leon Draisaitl. At 21 years old and coming off a 29-goal season (along with 77 total points), Draisaitl would likely be the most important restricted free agent in the entire NHL. The Oilers have already come out and stated they will match any offer, no matter how high to retain one of the franchise’s cornerstone pieces on their team and it will prove costly. The third overall pick in the 2014 draft has been unstoppable in just three short years and he’s nowhere close to his prime. Extending the young German forward is critical for the team and a big reason the team just traded Jordan Eberle to the Islanders to free as much cap space as it can to lock up Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, who they hope to extend this year as well.
Other RFA’s: F Zack Kassian, D Joey Laleggia, D David Musil, F Zachary Pochiro, F Henrik Samuelsson, D Dillon Simpson.
Key Unrestricted Free Agents: F Tyler Pitlick. A few days ago, veteran defender Kris Russell would have been in this spot, but the defender signed a four-year, $4MM per year deal to stay with the Oilers. That leaves very little to worry about on the unrestricted free agent front. However, if you really look, Pitlick still has a lot of potential. The only problem is the 25-year-old center is quite injury prone. In the last three years, he has not played in more than 37 games a season due to various injuries with the most recent being a torn ACL back in December. Although, he was having a strong season before that, scoring eight goals in those first 31 games. However, considering the Oilers may be looking for cheap players with potential, they might consider giving Pitlick one more chance.
Other UFA’s: F David Desharnais, F Justin Fontaine, D Mark Fraser, F Matt Hendricks, D Eric Gryba, D Jordan Oesterle.
Projected Cap Space: With the Eberle contract now off the books and Russell signed long-term, that allows Edmonton almost $20MM in cap space to work with and they will likely need a lot of that to give extensions to Draisaitl and McDavid. While McDavid is not a restricted free agent until next year, the team can lock him up starting this summer and would be smart to do so. With what’s left, the team may look to add a few veterans to fill out the lineup and help guide this young team even further next year.
Offseason Keys: Edmonton Oilers
While expansion was the early headline in what will be a busy NHL offseason, there are still several other storylines for each team in the months to come. Here is a closer look at what lies ahead for the Edmonton Oilers.
After years of continued struggles, everything came together rather nicely for the Oilers in 2016-17. Connor McDavid built on a strong rookie season with a Hart Trophy campaign while Cam Talbot provided the strong goaltending they had been seeking for a while. As a result, they made it to the second round, providing plenty of reason for optimism in Edmonton.
GM Peter Chiarelli has been busy already this offseason with the recent trade of winger Jordan Eberle to the Islanders for center Ryan Strome plus the re-signing of Kris Russell. Even with those off the board, there is still work to be done. Here are three remaining offseason keys for the Oilers.
McDavid Extension
There has been talk of McDavid’s second contract since the time he signed his first one. He has more than delivered in his first two seasons with Edmonton and Chiarelli has already indicated that this will be his top priority this summer.
There are two questions in play here – how much will it cost and how long will the contract be? Regardless of the term, it’s going to be among the highest cap hits in the league and I don’t think anyone on either side would expect otherwise.
The term presents the more intriguing question. He’s eligible to sign for as many as eight years and he sits four years away from unrestricted free agency eligibility. While many have expected he’ll take the eight years, it was suggested last month that a five year term would be more preferable to McDavid. While that would result in a lower pay day now, it would allow him to sign his next contract with all years being UFA ones and likely a higher salary cap at that time. Whichever way they go, there’s little reason to think this won’t get done around July 1st, the first day he’s eligible to sign.
New Deal For Draisaitl
Edmonton has the highest scoring restricted free agent this summer in center Leon Draisaitl. The German forward is coming off a breakout season where he tallied 29 goals and 48 assists and has shown himself to be a number one center.
Offer sheets are extremely rare now but given the massive contract McDavid will get on his next deal, some have wondered if Draisaitl could be targeted. Chiarelli has already stated he’ll match any offer but that might not stop a team from trying. If an opposing squad wanted to make life difficult for Edmonton cap-wise, they could offer as much $9.8MM for five years with the offer sheet compensation being two first rounders, a second, and a third.
The expectation is that the two sides should be able to work out a deal shortly after the McDavid one is finalized (and it’s that contract that will likely lay the foundation for this one) but if that isn’t the case, there may be a team that decides to try to roll the dice on an offer sheet (assuming Draisaitl is willing to sign it, of course). Assuming there is no offer sheet, a new deal for the 21 year old should come in around the $7MM per season range.
Add Defensive Depth
The Oilers will be without blueliner Andrej Sekera for a notable period to start next season. He suffered a torn ACL against the Ducks in the second round and will be out anywhere from six to nine months. On the shorter end, he’d miss roughly the first six weeks of the season but at the longer end of the scale, that could be half the season.
The team is in much better shape defensively than they were a couple of years ago with both Darnell Nurse and Matt Benning faring well as youngsters but behind them, there isn’t much that’s ready right away. Griffin Reinhart would have helped in that regard but he was picked by the Golden Knights in expansion.
Veteran Eric Gryba is set to become an unrestricted free agent and while bringing him back would help in terms of depth, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them set their heights a little higher in free agency. It’s not likely that they will go after the big names – especially with their big two forwards set to receive huge raises – but finding someone capable of playing a fourth or fifth defender role would help ease the pain of missing Sekera early on while giving them strong third pairing options when everyone is healthy.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Edmonton Oilers Will Match Any Offer Sheet For Leon Draisaitl
Though it may not have needed to be said, Edmonton Oilers GM today clarified his position in regards to a potential offer sheet targeting Leon Draisaitl. As Chris Johnston of Sportsnet reports, Chiarelli and the Oilers will match “any offer.” Whether it is a bluff or not, it’s hard to see anyone actually signing Draisaitl to an offer sheet. They are so rare these days that they almost never happen, and Chiarelli can honestly say he’ll match after moving out salary in today’s earlier Jordan Eberle deal.
If anyone were to try it, the penalties were outlined by Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet some time ago. They’re as follows:
| $1,295,571 or less | No compensation |
| $1,295,571 to $1,962,968 | Third-round pick |
| $1,962,968 to $3,925,975 | Second-round pick |
| $3,925,975 to $5,888,960 | First and third-round picks |
| $5,888,960 to $7,851,948 | First, second and third-round picks |
| $7,851,948 to $9,814,935 | Two firsts, a second and third-round picks |
| Over $9,814,935 | Four first-round picks |
You can see why Chiarelli would be comfortable saying it. Unless a team is willing to sign Draisaitl for almost $10MM a year—which is still unlikely regardless of his unbelievable potential and performance this season—the compensation would be nowhere near the value he’ll bring to the franchise for the next several years. There’s no guarantee that Draisaitl stays with the Oilers long term (or even to his 26th birthday given how young he broke into the league) but two firsts a second and third pale in comparison to what he’s worth.
Interestingly, Oilers fans will remember the time they signed Thomas Vanek, then a young sniper for the Buffalo Sabres to an offer sheet, only to have it matched. Had the Sabres let Vanek go, they would have been owed four first-round picks, which ended up as the 12th, 10th, 1st and 1st overall selections in their respective drafts. Vanek was coming off a better season (albeit in a higher scoring environment) than Draisaitl’s 2016-17, giving just a tiny bit of pause to the idea that the Oilers should actually match any offer.
Latest From Insider Trading: Duchene, Barrie, Oilers
In the latest edition of Insider Trading from TSN (video link), Bob McKenzie reports that Avalanche forward Matt Duchene is the “player most likely” to be traded this summer. Duchene has long been linked to the rumor mill throughout this past season but GM Joe Sakic’s asking price was too high to get an in-season deal done.
The 26 year old is coming off a down year with Colorado, recording 18 goals and 23 assists in 77 games, his lowest full-season output since 2011-12. He has two years remaining on his current contract with a cap hit of $6MM before being eligible for unrestricted free agency. The current free agent crop is lacking in impact top six forwards so despite a high price, there should be several teams interested in his services.
While McKenzie wouldn’t guarantee a deal gets done during the offseason, he classifies the situation as one where both the Avalanche and Duchene are hoping for a fresh start.
Other notes to pass along from the segment (although the full video is worth a watch):
- The belief is that Sakic is still coveting a top blueliner in order to let Duchene go. Darren Dreger notes that part of the reason for that is to potentially allow Colorado to then move defenseman Tyson Barrie. The 25 year old is a strong producer from the back end although his play in his own end has been a concern for them for a while now. Barrie has three years left on his deal at a $5.5MM cap charge and Dreger believes it will take a top draft pick or a combination of picks and prospects to get a deal done.
- While some expected that Edmonton’s Connor McDavid would see his extension for 2018-19 done before the team tries to deal with pending RFA Leon Draisaitl but Dreger reports that the Oilers would like to get both done at the same time. These two contracts will be the top priority in Edmonton this summer and considering the dollars it will take to get both done, they would undoubtedly like to get those contracts done sooner than later so they have a better sense of their salary cap situation before getting too deep into free agency or the trade market.
- On that note, Dreger suggests that Oilers winger Jordan Eberle will “definitely get traded” this summer. Clearing his $6MM cap hit for two more years would ensure that Edmonton has plenty of money to get McDavid and Draisaitl’s new contracts done. Earlier this week, GM Peter Chiarelli stated that he doesn’t think that they necessarily have to make a cap-clearing move this offseason but that they will have to at some point in the next couple of seasons. Like Duchene, Eberle is a top six forward in a market that doesn’t have many of them available so the timing may be right for Chiarelli to do a deal now.
Pacific Notes: McDavid, Simek, Rakell, Eaves
Extension talks have yet to begin between the Oilers and Connor McDavid’s camp but there are already plenty of theories as to what it may take to sign him. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman suggests (video link) that one potential avenue that McDavid may consider is to not sign the maximum eight year deal but rather something around five seasons, similar to what other top players such as Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos, and Patrick Kane (among others) have done in the past.
Doing so would then allow McDavid to be eligible for unrestricted free agency sooner and would allow him to potentially cash in on a max-term, bigger money deal at that time. From the standpoint of the Oilers, this route would allow them to save a bit on his AAV as he still has four years of team control remaining once his contract expires in 2018. With Leon Draisaitl needing a new contract as well, that extra money could come in handy. In the same video, Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos notes that the expectation is that the AAV for both young stars will be pretty close on their second deals, potentially within $500K.
Elsewhere in the Pacific:
- The Sharks have agreed to terms with Czech defenseman Radim Simek, according to an iSport report in the Czech Republic (link in Czech). Simek’s European agent, Petr Hemsky, confirmed to them that Simek has signed a one year deal worth $830K if he’s with San Jose for the entire season. There is likely a signing bonus not included in that amount as Simek will receive an entry-level contract. The article states that the Rangers were also interested while it was reported last week that Vancouver was also interested in Simek’s services.
- The Ducks won’t be getting any help from the infirmary when it comes to their elimination game against the Predators on Monday night. The team announced (Twitter link) that both Patrick Eaves and Rickard Rakell did not travel with the team to Nashville and will not play in Game Six. Both players are currently dealing with lower body injuries and were the only 30 goal scorers on Anaheim’s roster this season.
Takeaways From Peter Chiarelli’s Year-End Press Conference
The fact that the Oilers will be without top-four defenseman Andrej Sekera for a decent chunk of next season wasn’t the only notable bit of news that came from GM Peter Chiarelli‘s year-end press conference on Tuesday.
He also discussed his summer plans for the team, and no, he doesn’t see another Taylor Hall-for-Adam Larsson type blockbuster. Chiarelli did say that he was open to the idea of trading down in the upcoming Entry Draft; the team has the 22nd overall pick, no second, and two third-round picks in the first 93 picks. Because this draft is seen as weaker than previous years, Chiarelli said acquiring a second-round pick isn’t a necessity but that if a trade came up, he’d consider moving down from #22 to acquire more picks.
Also on the trade front, Chiarelli called the widespread criticism of Jordan Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins‘s playoffs unfair. Trade speculation has run wild around those two, especially Eberle, but Chiarelli pumped the breaks on the suggestion that they need to be dumped at any cost. He praised Eberle’s improvement along the boards, and talked about the lack of confidence that the sniper suffered from. Eberle took 208 shots, which is the most he’s taken so far in his seven-year career, but shot at just a nine per cent rate, considerably down from his previous career-average of 14 per cent. Had he shot at that rate, he’d have scored 29 goals instead of 20. Chiarelli stressed that the team will be “careful about how [they] evaluate him.”
As far as Nugent-Hopkins, the general manager stressed the team-wide need of improving in the face-off circle. Chiarelli said that he gave Nugent-Hopkins “homework” for the summer. While Chiarelli kept a positive tone publicly, with both men on the trading block it would have been a poor decision to criticize them. With questions remaining about what position Leon Draisaitl will ultimately play and the acquisition of David Desharnais not being overly successful, Chiarelli will likely be looking to give Todd McLellan some more options in the face-off circle.
The main priority for Edmonton is signing their two best forwards to new contracts. Draisaitl is an RFA this summer, and Connor McDavid will be eligible to extend his deal on July 1. Chiarelli called McDavid priority one and Draisaitl priority two of this summer. All other free agents, like rugged winger and playoff cult hero Zack Kassian and controversial defenseman Kris Russell will have to wait until Chiarelli knows what sort of numbers he’s dealing with. The two men combined for about $6.4MM in cap space this past season (entry-level contracts plus bonuses), but will account for as much as $20MM by next season.
As far as the potential of a rival team offer sheeting Draisaitl, Chiarelli isn’t worried about that. Last week, I wrote about why offer sheets are so rare, and Chiarelli mentioned one of the stated reasons. The Oilers have the cap space to match any offer sheet to Draisaitl, so the only reason another team would submit an offer is to jack up the price. It’s highly unlikely that a team would go out of their way to try hurt another team’s cap situation because of the negative affect it would have on that GM’s reputation.
Had Sekera not been injured, the Oilers defense might not have had any changes on opening night. Oscar Klefbom is developing into a good top-pairing defenseman, Larsson had a strong first season, Darnell Nurse and Matt Benning have made strides together, and Chiarelli expressed interest in re-signing Russell and Eric Gryba. Chiarelli admitted the team doesn’t have a championship defense (yet). He pointed to Nashville and Anaheim, saying that “it would be nice to have a D at that level.”
Russell is loved by old-school hockey people, and considered highly overrated by people with a mind for advanced stats. While Russell blocks a ton of shots (213 in 68 games), he bleeds possession and hasn’t had a positive CF% Rel. (scoring chances when he’s on the ice compared to off the ice) since 2012 when he was in Columbus. He also scored just one goal this season despite playing the third-most minutes of all skaters. However, the injury to Sekera could motivate the Oilers to sign Russell to help fill the void. As mentioned above, Chiarelli will wait until he knows what McDavid and Draisaitl will cost before making any considerable signing, even if it means waiting until after July 1.
Chiarelli said the team blew his expectations out of the water, finishing with 103 points and getting to Game 7 of the second round. This summer will be about locking up key pieces and letting the young roster develop next season.
Oilers Notes: Free Agents, Draisaitl, Eberle, Pouliot
The Edmonton Oilers were eliminated by the Anaheim Ducks in Game 7 on Wednesday night; now comes the post-season autopsies and plans for the coming summer.
The face of the franchise and perhaps the league, Connor McDavid is eligible to sign an extension on July 1. Pending-RFA Leon Draisaitl lead the Oilers in playoff scoring after finishing eighth in the NHL during the regular season. Those two players will go from entry-level contracts to somewhere between $16-20MM by next summer.
The upcoming McDavid contract has already been the subject of much digital ink. Now, Draisaitl’s breakout season has lead to questions about what he’s worth. At the beginning of the year, the debate was bridge-deal or long-term. After a 77-point campaign, it’s clear that the Oilers will be looking long-term with their young star. Over at Sportsnet, Jonathan Willis explored previous contracts for comparable stars. Based on contracts signed by players like Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Anze Kopitar, and Johnny Gaudreau, Willis writes that Draisaitl’s new contract ought to be in the $6 to $6.5MM range. However, because of Draisaitl’s 37-game rookie season and the influence of McDavid, Willis notes that both sides have leverage.
Other free agents include Kris Russell, Zack Kassian, and Matt Hendricks. Hendricks will certainly be off the books, clearing close to $2MM. Russell will be interesting, as he’s the only member of the regular top-six who’s not under contract next season. If the Oilers want to improve their blue line, then Russell’s spot is the clear choice to upgrade.
- On Thursday morning, the Oilers announced that Draisaitl will join Germany at the IIHF World Championships in Paris, France, and Cologne, Germany. The native of Cologne ought to help Germany’s chances, as the team has just one regulation win in four games so far. It’s been a busy season for Draisaitl, who has played 104 games since mid-August beginning with the Olympic Qualifiers, the World Cup of Hockey, all 82 NHL regular season games, and then 13 NHL playoff games.
- Eberle’s poor regular season and playoffs may mean he’s on the way out. He didn’t score a single goal during the playoffs, and was even outscored by Nashville goaltender Pekka Rinne by a score of three assists to two. As Sportsnet’s Luke Fox puts it, “You’re selling low on Jordan Eberle, but you’re still selling, right?” Provided the Oilers can find more scoring depth on the right wing, then expect Eberle to be on his way out. Fox suggests Carolina, New Jersey, and Vegas as possible trade partners.
- Left-winger Benoit Pouliot also struggled mightily this season, with just 14 points in the regular season and none in the playoffs. He also comes at a $4MM price tag, which makes any trade unlikely. He’ll be exposed to Vegas, with perhaps a prospect or pick offered as a sweetner. Failing that, a buyout could be the next option. It was a bad year, but Pouliot has previously scored a solid rate while being an aggressive forechecker and good penalty-killer. His penchant for bad penalties got him in coach Todd McLellan‘s doghouse and he couldn’t play his way out.