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Cost Per Point: The Best Value Deals In The NHL

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When working with a salary cap, especially one that has not been increasing as expected in recent year, it is vital for general managers to get the most production out of their players. Teams with players who meet the expected level of production implied by their contracts and teams that lack wasted dollars in bad, expensive deals are often the same teams that thrive in today’s NHL. Forget market size or free agent appeal, the key to a winning franchise nowadays is getting the best bang for your buck on every player on the roster. While no player can be fully quantified by their scoring, cost per point is an easy way to look at which players are producing at the most team-friendly rate and which have been more of a cap space killer than a positive member of the team. Thanks to CapFriendly, that information is readily available to fans and NHL executives alike.

The benchmark for this metric is about $100K/point, as GM’s expect those big-time forwards and offensive defenseman who they award with $6MM, $7MM, and $8MM per year contracts to be putting up 60, 70, or 80 points respectively. For the second year in a row, St. Louis Blues superstar Vladimir Tarasenko was the poster boy for this standard, coming in at exactly $100K/point with 75 points on a $7.5MM deal. Winnipeg’s Bryan Little and New Jersey’s Adam Henrique are two other notable names that hit the mark exactly, while phenoms like Sidney Crosby and Duncan Keith landing close to the $100K/point mark show that it is an accurate expectation.

However, the exception to the rule is obviously entry-level contracts. It is no secret that drafting and developing well is the best way to improve you team, beginning with affordable scoring from players on their rookie deals. Nowhere is that more apparent than in cost per point, where nine of the top ten and 17 of the top 20 best contracts were rookie deals. To no one surprise, 20-year-old MVP Connor McDavid and his 100 points on a $925K entry-level contract was far and away the best bargain in hockey. McDavid cost the Oilers only $9,250 per point in 2016-17. That will all change soon, as McDavid is set to begin an eight-year, $100MM contract in 2018-19, after which a 100-point campaign will cost Edmonton $125,000/point, closer to the expectations of a standard contract. For now, the Oilers can enjoy one more year of McDavid likely being the best deal in the NHL, as well as the best player. Entry-level deals joining McDavid in the top ten last year (in order) were Viktor Arvidsson, Artemi Panarin, teammate Leon Draisaitl, Conor Sheary, David Pastrnak, Auston Matthews, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Patrik Laine. Not all entry-level deals are created equal, so while Draisaitl and Pastrnak were second and fourth respectively in entry-level scoring, they were also on the ELC maximum deal of $925K and of slightly lesser value to their teams than the likes of Arvidsson ($632K) and Sheary ($667.5K). Panarin had the best contract in the league in 2015-16 and fell only to third with $10,980/point for the Chicago Blackhawks. Now in Columbus and on a two-year, $12MM deal, the Blue Jackets have to hope that they can continue to get 70+ point seasons out of him to maximize the value of that deal.

So, entry-level contracts aside, who was the best contract in hockey last season? Another easy answer, former Blue Jacket gamble Sam Gagner. After a horrendous 2015-16 campaign with the Philadelphia Flyers, Gagner struggled to find a new team last summer, eventually settling on a $650K “show me” deal with Columbus. Right away people tagged that contract, for a six-time 40+ point scorer, as an absolute bargain, even if Gagner simply bounced back to normal production. He did one better, posting a career-high 50 points for the Jackets and coming in at $13K/point, good enough for sixth in the NHL. Gagner has since moved on to the Vancouver Canucks, signing a three-year, $9.45MM contract on July 1st. However, if he is able to continue to produce at 40-50 point levels over that deal, his $3.15MM cap hit will remain a great bargain deal. Behind Gagner, another player on the move this summer, former Florida Panther and current Vegas Golden Knight Jonathan Marchessault had the 13th-ranked cost per point last year at $14,706/point. Marchessault had a breakout year, netting 51 points in the first season of a two-year, $1.5MM deal. Rather than take advantage of one more $750K season for a 30-goal scorer, the Panthers allowed Marchessault to be selected in the Expansion Draft and Vegas surely hopes he continues to be one of the best values in hockey in 2017-18. The final contract in the top 20 not belonging to an entry-level player, and the only 35+ veteran contract in the top 50, belongs to Marchessault’s replacement in Florida, Radim Vrbata. Vrbata returned home to Arizona last season after a down year in Vancouver the season prior, and the swift 36-year old proceeded to score 55 points, more than double his previous year’s total. On a one-year deal with a $1MM base salary, that only cost the Coyotes $18,182/point last season. Now at a base salary of $2.5MM in Florida, the Panthers hope that Vrbata isn’t starting to slow down just yet. Other impressive value contracts included Patrick Eaves, whose breakout season in Dallas led to a trade and subsequent extension with the Anaheim Ducks, Derek Ryan, who shocked the hockey world with 29 points for the Carolina Hurricanes in his first full NHL season at age 30, and a quartet of recently re-signed RFAs in Richard Panik, Ryan Dzingel, Ryan Spooner, and Jordan Martinook.

With the good comes the bad, and there were certainly some poor value contracts in the NHL last year. Many of the worst belong to players who were injured or AHL depth players that saw only limited time. With zero points in 13 games with a $1.25MM cap hit, Tampa Bay Lightning winger Erik Condra’s value was not even quantifiable it was so bad, and at the highest salary of any player who went pointless last season. Limited to just 18 games with only four points, another Bolts forward, Ryan Callahan, was one of the worst values due to injury with $1.45MM per point on his $5.8MM cap hit. However, the truly worst contract in the NHL has to belong to a player that player a majority of the season. Sadly for a Detroit fan base that is already feeling pretty down-and-out, that designation belongs to Red Wings defenseman Danny DeKeyser, who began a six-year, $30MM extension by scoring about a third less points for the third season in a row. With 12 points in 82 games at $5MM, DeKeyser’s $416.7K/point is pretty ugly. The Buffalo Sabres struck out twice on the blue line, with both Dmitry Kulikov (five points in 47 games at $4.33MM) and Josh Gorges (six points in 66 games at $3.9MM) coming in at $866.7K/point and $650K/point respectively, though neither is known as a major point producer. The worst forward contract? Andrew Desjardins may not have been relied upon as a full-time player with much ice time last season with the Chicago Blackhawks, but with only one point in 46 games, $800K/point, it’s not difficult to see why he remains an unsigned free agent.

While statistics and analytics in hockey are normally geared toward displaying on-ice production, it is always interesting to look at the game from a business perspective. It is important for teams and fans alike to understand not just the absolute of how a player is producing, but the relative value of that production based on how much money that player is being paid. In a salary cap league, there is nothing more important that production value, and as the game grows the focus will only further tighten on scoring as a function of dollars and the cost per point metric.

Overpriced: The Worst Contracts Of 2016-17

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Recently we took a look at some of the best contracts in the league based on cost-per-point, and which off-season contract would hold that title this year. Patrick Sharp easily won the poll, and could provide great value on his $800K contract ($1MM with performance bonus). Among players still signed, excluding entry-level deals, Jon Marchessault has a good chance to repeat if he’s given the opportunity in Vegas. He was one of the brightest spots for Florida last year, after agreeing to a two-year deal that pays him just $750K per season. Patrick Sharp

So what about the other side of the spectrum? Who are the most expensive players relative to their performance in the NHL? Luckily CapFriendly has a helpful tool that not only lists the per-point cost, but can standardize it to what it would have cost had the player spent 82 games in the NHL. That way a player like Milan Michalek who scored just one point won’t be penalized for the fact that he was buried in the minors all year.

As one would expect, this list is led by a glut of defensive defensemen who are paid more for what they do in their own end than their offense. Still, you can see how teams can get in trouble with players like Josh Gorges and Marc Staal costing more than $500K per point this season. The two combined for 16 on the year.

Interestingly another Buffalo defender is high on the list, as Dmitry Kulikov recorded just five points all season. Despite that $497K cost-per-point rate, he still locked down a deal that will continue to pay him $4.33MM for the next several years. He’s a bounce-back candidate for sure, but it was surprising to see his terrible year not affect his price tag.

If you eliminate defensemen, the picture becomes even uglier. Regardless of role, forwards are still expected to contribute at least somewhat on offense, especially those who earn hefty contracts. Andrew Desjardins leads the pack among players who spent the majority of the season in the NHL, scoring just a single point in his 46 games. He only cost the team $800K though, which means Carl Soderberg takes the cake as the worst contract in the league*.

Carl SoderbergSoderberg was paid $4.75MM last season and recorded just 14 points. He’s not expected to be a huge offensive producer, but the fact that Colorado had to pay more than $330K per point this season was ridiculous. His fall off was immediate and precipitous, as he’s just a year removed from a 51-point year, but if he can’t climb back up the three remaining years on his contract look about as bad as they come. His no-trade clause has dropped to just a list of 10 teams he can’t be traded to, but if his production continues he’s more likely a buyout candidate than anything else.

Interestingly, not too far down the list is Bobby Ryan who at $7.8MM is one of the highest-paid players in the league. His 25-point season is completely unacceptable, though many will forget it due to his postseason performance. Ryan recorded 15 points in 19 playoff contests, but is now entering his thirties with five more years on his deal. Perhaps he was playing with an injury, or it’s just an aberration, but Ryan is expected to post nearly double his regular season performance. While he’s clearly not a 30-goal scorer any longer, 13 is just not acceptable.

So who will lead the list this year? Well, early favorites may be Tomas Plekanec in Montreal, who still has a cap-hit of $6MM this season and will play the year at age-35, and Marian Gaborik coming off an injury and turning 36 during the year. Even the new signing of Patrick Marleau to a $6.25MM cap hit could easily backfire for the Maple Leafs, and end up being the most expensive per-point forward in the league.

*Bryan Bickell’s $4MM deal could have been listed as the worst contract, though he was omitted due to his diagnosis of multiple sclerosis. Had Bickell been healthy enough to play he likely still could have ended up at the top, but that is far from certain.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Sabres Notes: Mueller, Coaching, Expansion

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Mirco Mueller was dealt from the San Jose Sharks to the New Jersey Devils just before the expansion protection lists were submitted, but they weren’t the only team interested in him. Pierre LeBrun of TSN reports that the Buffalo Sabres were also in talks with the Sharks before they made the move for Nathan Beaulieu instead. It’s clear that the Sabres are looking for every opportunity to improve their defense after finding little consistency from the back end a year ago.

So far, the Sabres project to have some combination of Beaulieu, Rasmus Ristolainen, Zach Bogosian, Josh Gorges, Jake McCabe and Viktor Antipin in their regular group, with Justin Falk, Brendan Guhle and others fighting for the last few spots. That’s a group that could seriously use another upgrade, as various levels of inexperience and inconsistency flow throughout. With Vegas announcing that they’d have defensemen for sale after the expansion draft, it wouldn’t be surprising to hear Buffalo had picked up the phone to try and acquire one.

  • That is of course if Buffalo doesn’t lose a defenseman of their own in the draft. Though we expect the Golden Knights to go after Linus Ullmark (with William Carrier a close second), there is always the chance that Bogosian could be selected. After all, even though he’s been disappointing for the Sabres since coming from Winnipeg in the Tyler Myers trade, he is still just 26 and has the pedigree of a third-overall pick. His contract still has three years left at a $5.14MM cap hit (and actually costs more from a salary perspective) but if Vegas believes he can put his injury woes behind him and become the top-pairing two-way defender he was drafted as they could potentially take him off Buffalo’s hands.
  • John Vogl of the Buffalo News passes on a report that Phil Housley will hire an all-new assistant coaching staff for next season, with Terry Murray, Bob Woods and Tom Ward all not expected to be retained. New GM Jason Botterill is attempting to change the entire culture in the Buffalo organization, and that likely means wiping the coaching slate clean. Interestingly, Murray is the uncle of former Buffalo GM Tim Murray and is a career NHL coach who has held the head position in Florida, Philadelphia, Washington and Los Angeles.

Atlantic Division Offers Scoring, Depth Players

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The Atlantic Division was arguably the weakest in the league, but Vegas should be happy to know that they can claim two previous 30-goal scorers from the group. Some teams offer very little, such as Buffalo, because of their lack of depth, and Toronto, because of good planning. But others, such as Montreal and Detroit, will provide interesting options at multiple positions.

The Boston Bruins have one of the weakest lists of the lot, but there are still a few names which could help the Golden Knights organization. Vegas could opt for the overpaid but serviceable Matt Beleskey in hopes of his return to form as a solid 3rd-line piece. They might instead select a defenseman, either the puck possession defender in Colin Miller or physical presence in Adam McQuaid – but there may be better defenseman available elsewhere. A very probable scenario is that they opt for a project player in defenseman Joe Morrow or goalie Malcolm Subban. The Toronto Maple Leafs probably released one of the best lists today. Veteran Brooks Laich is an option, but McPhee may opt for 25 year-old Martin Marincin in hopes that he can build upon his last two seasons. Neither loss would impact the team’s ascendance in the slightest. Something to keep an eye out for is the perennially injured Joffrey Lupul – it’s certainly possible GM Lou Lamoriello will use Vegas to take his contract off the books. It wouldn’t take much of a sweetener.

The Montreal Canadiens left veteran defenseman Alexei Emelin exposed, which some predicted – but it could still set their defense back in the short-term. GM Marc Bergevin did well to utilize that final forward protection spot, trading for Jonathan Drouin and locking him up long-term. A potential player to watch is Alexander Radulov and whether Vegas will pursue the unrestricted free agent in the next few days. They do have a head-start, and he would be a potent addition. The Detroit Red Wings made what I consider to be a very surprising move in exposing goalie Petr Mrazek over Jimmy Howard. It could pay dividends if Vegas opts to go in a different goaltending direction, but it seems quite likely they will go the best player available route. Xavier Ouellet is also left exposed, which could decimate their defensive hopes. Unfortunately for Wings fans, Ken Holland very well will pay extortion-level prices for not being more aggressive in the trade market when he had the opportunity.

The Ottawa Senators will contribute one of the top three players to Vegas, regardless of his very hefty $7 MM contract. Bobby Ryan is bound for Nevada unless something unforeseen happens – he’s a former 30 goal scorer, is coming off a hot playoff, and an overpaid contract won’t break this team off the start. They could opt to speak with Mike Condon or go the less expensive route and take the veteran Marc Methot, but neither seems likely. Losing Ryan might hurt the Senators’ depth in the short term but is a solid cap-centric decision. The Buffalo Sabres will not lose much at all. Vegas could take a chance on the surprisingly available young forward William Carrier, or claim an average defenseman in Josh Gorges or Zach Bogosian. Vegas fans who were banking on a Tyler Ennis jersey will have to re-think their potential first purchase.

The Florida teams took completely different approaches to their expansion lists, and its clear that Tampa took the wiser route. Although they lost Jonathan Drouin, they re-couped a solid defenseman and made certain they didn’t lose an asset for nothing. Instead of losing Vladislav Namestnikov, they will instead look to probably surrender one of Cedric Paquette or J.T. Brown. There are a lot of mid-tier options available for Vegas, and I wouldn’t count out Cory Conacher as a darkhorse UFA signing considering his dominant performance in the Calder Cup playoffs. The Florida Panthers produced an inexcusably bad list. They will almost certainly lose their top scorer by not protecting the undersized Jonathan Marchessault. He had a breakout season with 30 goals in 75 games and his loss up front could really sting next season. Also of note is the decision to leave Roberto Luongo unprotected, although nothing likely will come of it.

Ultimately, the Atlantic division has a few players that will provide offensive punch to the Golden Knights, and a couple interesting decisions. McPhee could opt for safer veteran options, or take some gambles – only time will tell.

 

The original article had mistakenly replaced Collin Miller’s name on the protection list with Kevan Miller.

Sabres Extend Justin Falk

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The Buffalo Sabres announced this morning that they have signed defenseman Justin Falk to a one-year extension. Falk had been set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer, after signing a one-year, one-way deal with Buffalo on July 1st last year. The extension is identical to Falk’s current contract, carrying a $650K cap hit for next season and no additional bonuses or clauses.

Falk has had a much greater role in Buffalo this season than many expected. Heading into the 2016-17 season, the Sabres had a solid six-man defensive lineup featuring the newly-acquired Dmitry Kulikov alongside Zach Bogosian, Rasmus Ristolainen, Josh Gorges, Cody Franson, and Jake McCabe. Additionally, highly-touted college free agent Casey Nelson was expected to be the next man up. Arguably one of the deepest defensive units in the NHL did not hold up for very long. Injuries set in early in the season, resulting in Kulikov, Bogosian, and Gorges missing a combined 63 man-games (so far). Ristolainen is the only Sabres defenseman to have played in all 51 of the team’s games to date, while Franson and McCabe have been missed very few contests, but Buffalo has faced difficulties making up for the damage to their blue line. Nelson struggled when called upon, and stepping in to take a somewhat permanent spot on the team’s bottom pair was Falk. The 28-year-old, who has bounced back-and-forth between the NHL and AHL for seven years, was added this off-season for veteran depth in the minors, but has surprised with his pro-caliber confidence. Just 12 games away from matching his career high, Falk has played in 35 contests this season and has saved the Sabres with his ability to fit in well as the stay-at-home defenseman of the group. Although he has just four assists and averages just 13:11 in ice time, Falk has been defensively sound and is playing perhaps the most physical, shut-down style of his career. In appreciation of his efforts, Buffalo has rewarded the blue liner with a new contract.

Like nearly all in-season extensions this year, the deal also carries some Expansion Draft significance. Teams have been very wary of the their player eligibility for the upcoming draft this June, and the Sabres are no different. Buffalo had four players that met the exposure requirement of one defenseman with term remaining on his contract that has played 40 games this season or 70 games over the past two seasons: Bogosian, Ristolainen, McCabe, and Gorges. The Sabres will protect three of those players and leave one available to the Vegas Golden Knights. The youngters Ristolainen and McCabe will surely be protected and, unless he is traded, so will Bogosian. However, the extension for Falk gives the team even more flexibility approaching the Trade Deadline. Assuming Falk plays in five more games this season, his extension now adds him to the list of exposure qualifiers. The Sabres have been playing better of late, but a playoff berth still seems like a long shot. If they decide to make a big move and trade Bogosian, or better yet, can find a take for Gorges final year, they no longer have to hesitate on pulling the trigger. Falk is a harmless selection for exposure; both highly unlikely to be picked and not much of a loss if he is.

Sabres Notes: Gorges, McCabe, Playoff Push

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After weeks of nursing his injured hip for the past dozen games, Josh Gorges returned to the Buffalo Sabres last night in triumphant fashion reports Bill Hoppe of Buffalo Hockey Beat. The team beat the Ottawa Senators in all facets and took them down 4-0 in an impressive win. The 32-year old defenseman played just over 16 minutes, but chipped in an assist and was a +2 rating. While his possession numbers are still terrible this season, Gorges adds some grit to a blueline that has sorely missed it this year. With injuries to almost every member at times, the team has had inconsistency and unfamiliarity problems all season.

  • That perhaps is going to go away, now that Gorges and Jake McCabe have returned from their respective injuries. McCabe was sidelined for five games following a shoulder injury and Zach Bogosian, who was injured on Thursday evening against the New York Rangers, is only considered day-to-day. For a team that was expected to take a step forward this season, injuries have come hard and often this year.
  • But it’s the fact that those injuries are starting to heal that has Buffalo fans inspired for the next 30 games. The club has struggled this season to be sure, but with a strong start to 2017 (the team is 8-5-2 in the new year) and a very weak Atlantic Division, there is a chance they could go on a late drive for the playoffs. The team sits at 52 points after their win last night, and though that is tied for last place in the Eastern Conference, they’re only 6 points behind Boston for third place in the division and have played four fewer games. The incredible parity in the Eastern Conference has everyone still believing they’re “in it” at this point in the season, and with Buffalo’s injury excuse, perhaps they really are. When healthy (looking at you Jack Eichel), the team can boast enough goal scoring to keep up with any team, and the duo of Robin Lehner and Anders Nilsson has actually provided excellent goaltending (a team .923 save percentage has them third in the league). A healthy top four that includes Rasmus Ristolainen, Bogosian, McCabe and Dmitry Kulikov isn’t perfect, but may be enough to keep them relevant down the stretch.

Johan Larsson, Josh Gorges Injured

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Lost in the shuffle since it occurred in the same period as David Backes’ more noticeable head injury on Thursday, Johan Larsson also suffered a serious injury when the Buffalo Sabres faced the Boston Bruins two nights ago. Following the Sabres 3-1 loss to the Bruins today, Sabres coach Dan Bylsma revealed that Larsson will be out “weeks” with a dislocated wrist. Larsson took a hard hit from Adam McQuaid in the first period and did not return, due to the injury.

The 24-year-old Larsson has worked his way up through the Sabres’ system and has taken on the greatest role of his young career this season in Buffalo. Larsson was on pace to shatter his career highs, and is still likely to do so. The young forward has six goals and five assists for 11 points in 35 games so far this season. In his first full NHL season in 2015-16, Larsson had just 17 points in 74 games. Even if he misses a few weeks, Larsson will still likely beat 17 points this season if he returns to his top six role upon his return.

Bylsma also added that early indications following the game are that Josh Gorges, who left the game, suffered a hip pointer injury. There has been no official word on the extent of Gorges injury, but the veteran blue liner has already missed time this season with injury. Buffalo continue to struggle to string together wins, and that task will only prove to be more difficult with Larsson and potentially Gorges out of the lineup long term.

Injury Updates: Gorges, Kulikov, Hudler, Wild

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Despite being pegged to miss several weeks due to a non-displaced fracture in his foot on Sunday, Sabres defenseman Josh Gorges will suit up for Buffalo tonight, reports Amy Moritz of the Buffalo News.  As a result, the 32 year old will only have missed three games as a result of the fracture.  The stay-at-home blueliner has one assist through 23 games so far this season while averaging 19:27 of ice time per game, his lowest since 2007-08 when he played in Montreal.

That wasn’t the only good news the Sabres received on the injury front as Dmitry Kulikov, who has missed the last 14 games with a back injury, will also return to the lineup.  The 26 year old was one of Buffalo’s key offseason acquisitions after being acquired from Florida at the draft.  Although he was off to a slow start (pointless in 12 games), he’ll instantly give their top four a big boost as someone that can log heavy minutes.

As a result of these two being activated, Moritz notes that Brendan Guhle will return to his junior team (Prince George of the WHL) after being summoned as an emergency recall.  The 19 year old played in three games and certainly held his own, logging over 16 minutes of ice time per night while drawing praise from head coach Dan Bylsma:

“I think there’s significant evidence he showed he could play at this level. At the same time he’s 19-year-old kid. You know there’s going to be some ups and downs in his game over the course of his NHL career but he did a pretty remarkable job stepping into a tough situation, a tough spot and showed he could play and contribute.”

[Related: Sabres Depth Chart]

Other injury notes from around the league:

  • The Stars announced that they have activated right winger Jiri Hudler off IR. He has missed all but four games this season as a result of a lingering illness.  To make room for him on the roster, the team has assigned centre Jason Dickinson to their AHL affiliate in Texas.  Mark Stepneski of Stars Inside Edge also adds via Twitter that defenseman Julius Honka has been placed on IR retroactive to December 6th with an upper body injury.
  • Minnesota defenseman Christian Folin has been cleared to play by team doctors, Michael Russo of the Minnesota Star Tribune notes. He’s expected to take the warmup for tonight’s game against Edmonton; a decision on his playing status will be made at that time.  Folin has played in 19 games for the Wild this season, largely on the third pairing.
  • From that same column, Russo also reports that Zac Dalpe is also skating with the team. He underwent arthroscopic knee surgery in early November and has played in just nine games so far this season, recording three points.  There remains no timetable for his return to the lineup but this is certainly a step in the right direction for Dalpe.

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