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2018 Midseason UFA Power Rankings: 1-10

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With the halfway point of the season now behind us and the trade deadline fast approaching, it’s time to take a preliminary look at the UFA Class of 2018.  Here is the first half of our top-20 rankings, based on votes from writers Gavin Lee, Brian La Rose, Nate Brown, Zach Leach and Holger Stolzenberg. We ran numbers 11-20 yesterday, and will release an honorable mention group tomorrow.

1. John Tavares, C, New York Islanders — There was never any doubt that Tavares would hold the top spot on this list, and he was ranked #1 on all five ballots. The superstar Islanders center will only be 27 on July 1st, and could challenge Connor McDavid for the largest cap hit in the league if a bidding war starts over his services. Even with all of his career success, Tavares may have not experienced a season quite like this one, as he is currently tied for second in league scoring with 54 points in 46 games. There is very little negative that can be said about him, and teams could legitimately change their franchise direction by landing the biggest fish on the market.

2. John Carlson, D, Washington Capitals — Though it’s a steep drop off after Tavares, Carlson is an elite free agent in his own right. It’s rare that a defender of his caliber hits the open market, and the fact that he only just turned 28 makes him a target for 31 teams in the NHL. Logging more than 26 minutes a night this season on a depleted Washington blueline, Carlson trails only John Klingberg in terms of scoring from defensemen with 35 points through 45 games. Though it’ll be a tough case to make at the end of the season, Carlson should get some Norris consideration and could land a huge long-term contract.

3. Evander Kane, F, Buffalo Sabres — Everyone’s favorite trade rumor is headed to free agency after the season, as the Sabres haven’t even approached him to discuss an extension. Unless he’s so enamored with his next team and signs a contract right away, he should be able to pick a landing spot from a dozen or more suitors in the offseason. How many years teams will offer him has been disputed at times, but at just 26 he’s one of the youngest free agents to hit the market and should provide several years of prime performance.

4. James van Riemsdyk, F, Toronto Maple Leafs — van Riemsdyk doesn’t carry the puck a ton, and doesn’t often score from far out, but might be the most dangerous scorer in the league within five feet of the net. He’s well on his way to another 30 goal season this year, even while playing the fewest average minutes since he was 21. Expected to ask for something around $36MM over six years, there will be no shortage of teams looking to add him to their powerplay.

5. James Neal, F, Vegas Golden Knights — Before this season, free agency or even the expansion draft, we looked at Neal’s incomparable consistency and how he was headed for a big contract on the open market. He’s never recorded fewer than 21 goals in a season, and already has 18 this year. Obviously a huge part of what the Vegas Golden Knights have done to start their franchise history, they’ll try to retain him on a reasonable deal. If they can’t, he might just end up scoring 20 for his fifth organization in 2018-19.

6. Josh Bailey, F, New York Islanders — It’s not just Tavares that the Islanders have to worry about leaving this summer, but Bailey (and de Haan below) too. He and Anders Lee have formed the perfect wing pair for Tavares this season, and Bailey is going to blow his career-high in points—set only last season—out of the water just at the right time. He’s 28, has 50 points in 42 games and is a lethal powerplay setup man. Who doesn’t want to add that on the open market?

7. Mikael Backlund, C, Calgary Flames — Maybe underrated because of his personality and lack of flash on the ice, Backlund is nevertheless one of the most valuable assets available this summer. Soon to be 29, he’s coming off back-to-back 20-goal seasons and is a legitimate long-term center option. Centers with 50-point upside and responsible defensive ability don’t hit the market that often, and Backlund should be able to cash in because of it.

8. Paul Stastny, C, St. Louis Blues — Speaking of centers, Stastny is in good position to cash in on one last multi-year contract. The 32-year old is still logging big minutes for the St. Louis Blues, and though he may not be the 70-point man of his youth is still an effective weapon at both ends of the rink. A decline is coming, but with 33 points through 47 games this season including 20 even-strength assists, he will still be able to command an audience on the first day of free agency.

9. Calvin de Haan, D, New York Islanders — That’s right, the third Islanders player in the top 10 is de Haan, who has steadily developed into an excellent all-around defenseman. While he doesn’t have the offensive upside of Carlson, his youth—he’ll turn 27 in May—and ability to plug into a top-4 will still have teams knocking down his door. Our writers had him placed everywhere from #7 to #16, but no one disagrees he’ll have plenty of options on the open market.

10. Mike Green, D, Detroit Red Wings — There was a time, nearly a decade ago, when Green was the shining example of an offensive defenseman. Two years in a row, starting in 2009, he finished second in Norris voting behind a more well-rounded player—first to Duncan Keith, then Zdeno Chara—despite point totals in the seventies. In 2008-09 he even recorded 31 goals, the highest total from a defenseman since Kevin Hatcher in 1992-93, and unmatched in the years since. At 32 years old he won’t be putting up 70 point seasons anymore, but is still an excellent puck mover and can quarterback a powerplay. He’ll likely be one of the stars of the trade deadline and free agent day.

Trade Rumors Swirl Around Toronto

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It wasn’t long ago that the Toronto Maple Leafs were one of the worst franchises in the NHL, making the playoffs once in just eleven seasons and suffering an epic collapse in that one postseason appearance. Therefore, it was fittingly a surprising and exciting story line when the young 2016-17 Maple Leafs made the playoffs and even gave the President’s Trophy-winning Washington Capitals a run for their money in the conference quarterfinals. Toronto had finally turned it around.

This season however, expectations have changed. In an especially weak Atlantic Division, the Leafs have, for all intents and purposes, already locked up the third Atlantic playoff spot and are simply looking to strengthen their roster for what seems to be a collision course with the Boston Bruins in the first round, a rematch of their 2013 blunder. While much of that preparation will simply be maintaining a healthy roster and polishing their play through the rest of the regular season, there is also much anticipation that further additions to the team are in order to give the team a shot at the Stanley Cup this spring.

Trade speculation is natural for contenders, but it isn’t always rational. There has already been a notion among many sources that impending unrestricted free agents James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak, and Leo Komarov will be used as the team’s own “rentals” and that the Leafs could be unlikely to add a forward. There’s also the fact that Toronto has next to no cap space to make a typical picks/prospects-for-player rental deal. Yet, fans are still eager to grasp at any rumors of the Leafs adding a big-time defenseman or another depth piece up front.

Case in point: Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston reported earlier today that rookie defenseman Travis Dermott’s number was suddenly changed from #3 to #23 without his approval. The reaction from Toronto fans was overwhelmingly that the team was set to acquire a veteran player with the #3. Even SB Nation’s Maple Leafs blog Pension Plan Puppets was quick to post a somewhat laughable list of potential former Leafs whose #3 could be saved for retirement alongside a more serious list of current #3’s throughout the league who could be future Leafs. The vast majority of that list are defenseman, which lends some credence to the theory, but many – Seth Jones, John Klingberg, Brayden McNabb, Tucker Poolman – are likely untouchable and others – Kevin Bieksa, Chris Bigras, Nick Jensen – are likely of no interest to Toronto. Could the Pittsburgh Penguins really be ready to move on from Olli Maatta? Would the Leafs really be willing to take on the Keith Yandle contract or the risk of uber-physical Radko Gudas? Or was the number change simply due to some other decision that carries far less weight than Toronto fans would like it to?

Only time will tell what moves the Maple Leafs make prior to the Trade Deadline, but the expectations are not going away any time soon. Toronto’s Stanley Cup window has only just opened, but the hockey-crazed city is ready for their first title since 1967 and fans will be eager to see the club add additional pieces to strengthen the roster. The Leafs will continue to be a team to watch through the next month and a half, but that doesn’t mean every little piece of information on the rumor mill is worth taking seriously.

Snapshots: van Riemsdyk, Hutchinson, Dal Colle

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Expect James van Riemsdyk to stay with the Toronto Maple Leafs all season. That’s what TSN’s Darren Dreger writes in his latest column, positing that he and fellow pending unrestricted free agents Tyler Bozak and Leo Komarov, are best used as “own rentals” for the playoff push.

While there are some big numbers floating around for any potential van Riemsdyk extension, he’s continued to play an important role on the Maple Leafs, tying Auston Matthews for first on the team in goals with 19.

  • The Winnipeg Jets have recalled Michael Hutchinson from the AHL for tonight’s game, explaining that Steve Mason has fallen ill and can’t back up Connor Hellebuyck. To make room, the team has placed Adam Lowry on injured reserve. Hutchinson is an extremely interesting goaltender to keep an eye on this year, as he’s headed for unrestricted free agency in the summer. Though he’s stuck in the minor leagues this season due to Mason’s signing, the 27-year old has dominated the AHL with a .942 save percentage and could land an NHL job in the summer. In 99 career NHL games he does hold a .910 save percentage, and could be an excellent backup option.
  • New York Islanders head coach Doug Weight has confirmed that Michael Dal Colle will make his NHL debut tomorrow, the second-last player to do so from the first round of the 2014 draft. Only Connor Bleackley, who never signed with the Colorado Avalanche and re-entered the draft in 2016 (going in the fifth round), is left. Dal Colle was selected fifth overall, and still has some real upside to his game, but will have to quickly prove that he’s ready to take the next step.

James Van Riemsdyk Looking For $36MM Extension

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After James van Riemsdyk scored once again for the Toronto Maple Leafs last night, several members of the media speculated on his upcoming free agent value. van Riemsdyk is set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer, and is having another solid season in terms of goal scoring. Bob McKenzie relayed during the broadcast on TSN that he believed a five-year deal worth $6MM per season was possible, while Darren Dreger was on TSN radio this morning suggesting a six-year, $36MM deal is more accurate.

The money is right. I think that van Riemsdyk would take $6MM. $6MM frankly on the open market could be considered a hometown discount based on the goals he provides to the Toronto Maple Leafs. In a perfect world, I think JVR would prefer a 6×6 scenario to stay in Toronto.

Dreger suggests that van Riemsdyk does want to stay in Toronto if possible, but that his camp would believe that $6MM number is actually leaving money on the table. That’s the number suggested back in September as well, but the 28-year old winger could be earning himself even more every day.

With 18 goals already, van Riemsdyk is on pace for what would be a career-high 34 goals on the year and a potential spot among the absolute top of the free agent charts. Since Toronto has several other contracts to worry about in the next couple of seasons—most notably, Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner—anything more than $6MM per season (and perhaps even that) could be out of the question.

Snapshots: Penguins, Boeser, Maple Leafs

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The Pittsburgh Penguins made two trades today ahead of the holiday roster freeze, but might not be done this season. Josh Yohe of The Athletic spoke with Penguins’ GM Jim Rutherford earlier, who told him that the presence of Jamie Oleksiak—a player Pittsburgh has been looking at for two years—could mean more trades down the line due to added depth on defense.

That’s the same idea that Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette had when he suggested Oleksiak could potentially be “insurance against a future Ian Cole trade.” Cole has been rumored to be available since ending up a healthy scratch earlier this season, and has reportedly clashed with head coach Mike Sullivan multiple times. You’d expect Oleksiak would need to prove his worth for a while before they sent any defenseman out of town.

No Extension Talks Expected Between Toronto And James Van Riemsdyk

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There has been little discussion between the Maple Leafs and pending unrestricted free agent winger James van Riemsdyk, reports Frank Seravalli of TSN.  He adds that despite a mutual desire for van Riemsdyk to stay in Toronto, there aren’t likely to be talks any time soon.

Jan 31, 2017; Dallas, TX, USA; Toronto Maple Leafs left wing James van Riemsdyk (25) skates against the Dallas Stars during the game at the American Airlines Center. The Stars defeat the Maple Leafs 6-3. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY SportsThe 28-year-old has been one of the more consistent goal scorers in recent years and is off to a strong start in 2017-18 as well, tallying 15 times in 31 games.  Not only does that lead the team, his goal total places him for a tie for ninth in the entire league despite averaging his lowest ice time per game since 2010-11, his sophomore season.  As a result, he’s positioning himself to be one of the most sought-after free agents next July and will be poised to land a big raise on his $5MM salary and $4.25MM cap charge.

Meanwhile, Toronto is looking at a situation where they will have to hand out significant second contracts to top young forwards Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander within the next two years with a price tag that could approach $25MM between the three of them.  With that in mind, the sense is that the team may not want to commit to another big-ticket deal at this time knowing that these contracts are on the horizon.  It certainly seems like van Riemsdyk is well aware of this, saying that “At this point, I’m just playing it out”.

Seravalli adds that there is an understanding that van Riemsdyk isn’t expected to be dealt by the February 26th trade deadline.  Instead, with Toronto believing that they can contend for a Stanley Cup this season, they’ll use him as an internal rental which is something they’ll likely do with center Tyler Bozak as well.  In doing so, they’ll run the risk of potentially losing him for nothing but if the trade-off is a long playoff run, it’s certainly an understandable call to make.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Philadelphia Flyers Must Look To Future

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The Philadelphia Flyers dropped their 10th straight game today against the Boston Bruins and while that losing streak is hard to take, Philly.com’s Sam Carchidi writes that there are positives despite all the negatives the team has been enduring this year. The team is playing well at even strength, struggling mainly on special teams and the team should be getting defenseman Radko Gudas back from a 10-game suspension on Dec. 12, so there is hope for this season.

Regardless, the scribe writes fans may have to look towards the future rather then at this year’s production. While fans are angry about the offseason trade in which the Flyers traded away center Brayden Schenn, who is currently putting up good numbers in St. Louis with 10 goals and 20 assists, there are long-term assets to consider. The team took on Jori Lehtera’s contract in exchange, and the veteran is making that deal more challenging to analyze as he hasn’t scored a goal for Philadelphia this year. However, the team also got back two first round picks in that deal. The team drafted center Morgan Frost this past year, who is playing well in the OHL with 13 goals and 27 assists in 26 games. The team is also getting another first-rounder in the bountiful 2018 draft as well.

Carchidi writes the team should have ample cap room next year when the contracts of Valtteri Filppula ($5MM AAV) and Matt Read ($3.63 AAV) expire. If the team chooses to buyout the final year of Lehtera’s deal, the team should have ample space to sign a free agent this offseason when players such as John Tavares, Evander Kane and James van Riemsdyk are available.

However, the team also has quite a few prospects starting with 19-year-old goaltender Carter Hart, a 2016 second-round pick, who looks like the team’s goaltender of the future. After recovering from a bout of mononucleosis, he has put up huge numbers in the WHL, including a 1.58 GAA and a .953 save percentage in 13 games. He is expected to be Canada’s starting goaltender in the upcoming World Juniors and some believe he could be ready to be the Flyers starter in the 2019-20 season after a year in the AHL.

If you include that with the large amount of young players under the age of 25 on the Flyers current roster such as Sean Couturier, Nolan Patrick, Travis Konecny, Shayne Gostisbehere, Ivan Provorov, Travis Sanheim, Robert Hagg and a bunch of other youngsters who still must prove themselves, the core is already there. Along with the success of a lot of their young players in the minors, this team has a lot to look forward to in the future.

 

Snapshots: Raanta, Golden Knights, Maple Leafs

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Antti Raanta has been activated off injured reserve and is expected to start tonight against the Buffalo Sabres according to Craig Morgan of AZ Sports. Raanta hasn’t played in three weeks with a lower-body injury after being acquired this summer to be the Coyotes starting goaltender. He’ll head to the crease with a new backup in Scott Wedgewood, a tandem that could prove capable for Arizona as they try to climb out of the bottom of the standings.

The team unfortunately will not have Niklas Hjalmarsson on the ice however, meaning Dakota Mermis will make his NHL debut on the blueline. The Coyotes are currently last in the league with just one win in their first 13 games, and right now look like the odds-on favorite for the first-overall pick next June.

  • The Vegas Golden Knights will not trade for another goaltender, according to general manager George McPhee. The front office boss told Steve Carp of the Las Vegas Review-Journal that the Golden Knights will “ride it out with who we have.” Currently who they have is Maxime Lagace and 19-year old Dylan Ferguson, the last two goaltenders in the entire organization on NHL contracts. The team has given up six goals in back to back games, and still have four games remaining on their current road trip. Riding it out is likely the best move long-term for the organization, but it won’t feel good for Vegas fans who were on cloud nine after the team’s early season success. That excellent record could evaporate if they can’t find some stability in net soon.
  • The Toronto Maple Leafs are clearly not settled with the fringes of their lineup, as even after a win last night in Anaheim head coach Mike Babcock intends on shaking things up. Chris Johnston of Sportsnet reports that Kasperi Kapanen and Roman Polak will draw back into the lineup in place of Josh Leivo and Connor Carrick for tonight’s matchup with Los Angeles. That uncertainty will be an interesting one to follow as the Maple Leafs’ season continues. For a team that is expected to compete not only for a playoff spot, but for a considerable seeding in the postseason, they have several unresolved issues with their lineup. James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak and Leo Komarov are all unrestricted free agents, and remain possible mid-season trade candidates. If they are moved, the rotating bottom-pairing on the Toronto blueline is likely the target of upgrade.

Morning Notes: Nash, Maple Leafs, Lightning

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Even if John Tavares does re-sign with the New York Islanders, next summer’s free agent crop looks to be much more exciting than this year’s. While in-their-prime forwards like Evander Kane and James van Riemsdyk will likely be the focal point of many rumors, the mid-thirties group will also have some very interesting names. One of those, Rick Nash, was profiled by The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun, who believes the 33-year old New York Rangers forward can still be among the league’s best.

A two-way game has increased Nash’s value, and though he’ll be 34 by the time July 1st, 2018 rolls around there could be plenty of suitors lined up to add him to the mix. With 416 career goals coming into this season, the 2002 first-overall pick is an interesting name to watch this year.

  • The Maple Leafs are apparently working with a straight rotation for at least a couple of positions, as Kristen Shilton of TSN reports that Connor Carrick and Dominic Moore find themselves as the odd men out at the team’s morning skate. Andreas Borgman and Calle Rosen will likely be the team’s third pair, while Eric Fehr will draw back in as the fourth-line center. Still left out in the cold is Josh Leivo, who can’t seem to earn himself a full-time role with the Maple Leafs despite scoring 10 points in 13 games last season.
  • Among teams carrying eight defenseman early in the season are the Tampa Bay Lightning who, according to Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times, could dress seven for tonight’s matchup with the Washington Capitals. With Tampa’s decision to keep Mikhail Sergachev on the roster, they put themselves in somewhat of a roster crunch. Sergachev is the only defenseman on the roster who is waiver-exempt, and the team would not risk Jake Dotchin or Slater Koekkoek by sending them down to the minor leagues.

Eastern Notes: Bozak Line, Bergeron, Anderson

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The Toronto Maple Leafs have scored 15 goals in just two games so far this season. It can be assumed that offense will not be an issue for this team with so much talent on the offensive end. And while that’s an incredible accomplishment and should not be overlooked, there are other things the team should worry about if they want to be a Stanley Cup favorite this year. The Athletic’s James Mirtle writes (subscription required) that what looks worrisome is how the team’s defense allowed the New York Rangers to come back from a 5-1 deficit and tie the game up in the second period, turning the game, albeit briefly, into a close game.

The scribe writes that the culprit seems to fall upon the Maple Leafs’ line of Mitch Marner, Tyler Bozak and James van Riemsdyk. The line, while a solid offensive force, struggles defending and is not a great two-way line. They were on the ice for all three second-period goals that allowed the Rangers to come back. In fact, what’s surprising is that line gets quite a bit of even-strength ice time, according to Mirtle as Bozak received more even-strength minutes than Nazem Kadri, who plays on a more balanced line.

The problem is that the Marner, Bozak and van Riemsdyk line needs a better defensive presence, but considering how well the offense is running, there are very few players who would make a better fit into that line besides, maybe Connor Brown and moving the young and talented Marner to the fourth line doesn’t make any sense either. Therefore, Mirtle suggests the team cut the even strength minutes to that line and emphasize them more during special teams play. We’ll see if that situation improves over the next few games.

  • Joe Haggerty of NBC Sports writes that Patrice Bergeron is not likely to be ready for Monday’s game against the Colorado Avalanche. The 32-year-old center wore a non-contact practice jersey at practice on Sunday and didn’t finish practice either. “He didn’t finish practice. He started it and took some line rushes, so he’s progressing,” said head coach Bruce Cassidy. “How far he’s progressed is something we’ll determine in the morning. We’ll make a decision then as well. We’ve got three of [the game-time decisions], but Torey Krug and Austin Czarnik look a little closer [to playing] than Bergeron. But I wouldn’t rule any of them in or out until [Monday].”
  • The Columbus Blue Jackets announced they have recalled Josh Anderson from his conditioning loan from the Cleveland Monsters where he played one game with no points. The 23-year-old wing just signed a three-year, $5.5MM extension with Columbus last week and was just getting back into shape. He will join the team for their game against the Carolina Hurricanes on Tuesday. Anderson scored 17 goals in a breakout season a year ago.

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