Sabres Sign Rasmus Dahlin To Eight-Year Deal
The Buffalo Sabres kicked off the week by announcing a highly anticipated eight-year extension with star defenseman Rasmus Dahlin. The long-term deal will begin in the 2024-25 season and will carry run until 2032. The Sabres have now locked up a core piece of their back end through the bulk of his prime as Dahlin will be 32 years old when this extension expires. Early indications are that the deal will carry an $11MM AAV.
The $88MM extension will be tied for the second-highest cap hit among defensemen with Los Angeles Kings defender Drew Doughty. Their salary cap hits trail only Erik Karlsson and his $11.5MM price tag. It’s a big price to pay for the Sabres as it puts Dahlin into another salary stratosphere alongside two defensemen who have arguably failed to live up to their large salaries. The key difference between Doughty/Karlsson and Dahlin is that the Sabres are locking up the 23-year-old through his entire prime. While Doughty and Karlsson are still terrific players, they were paid largely for past performances.
Dahlin had a career year last season posting 15 goals and 58 assists in 78 games all while logging 25:48 of ice time a night. He finished fifth among NHL defensemen with 73 points, one of the highest scoring rankings ever by a Sabres defenseman. On the defensive side of things, the 2018 first-overall pick finished second on the Sabres in hits and led the team in blocked shots, a testament to his improved defensive capabilities that finally seem to be catching up to his elite offensive ability.
Many skeptics will point to the $11MM AAV and call the deal an overpay for the Sabres, and at first glance, it does seem steep. The closest comparable to Dahlin’s deal would be Charlie McAvoy’s eight-year deal with a $9.5MM cap hit that was signed in October 2021, or the eight-year deal that Mikhail Sergachev signed in July 2022 that carries an $8.5MM cap number. Those deals, while both massive bargains today, were signed at a time when the offensive upside of both players was more of an unknown. Prior to signing his eight-year deal, Sergachev had topped 40 points only once in his career, while McAvoy had never topped 32 points when he signed his long-term extension. Dahlin is in a different category as he has averaged well over 40 points a season and is now rounding into form defensively.
Critics might also point to Jake Sanderson’s recent extension for $8MM per year with the Ottawa Senators, but again the context is important to understand Dahlin’s deal. Sanderson has one season of NHL experience, while Dahlin has five. Sanderson posted 32 points last season, while Dahlin has routinely posted over 40 points a season. Dahlin’s contract is also buying out more unrestricted free-agent seasons, which typically cost more than restricted free-agent seasons.
With Dahlin’s long-rumored extension finally complete, Dahlin now joins Dylan Cozens, Tage Thompson, and fellow defenseman Mattias Samuelsson – all of whom signed long-term extensions since the start of last season. The Sabres are expected to compete for a playoff spot this season as they finally emerge from a long rebuild.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Speculation Swirling Around Logan Couture
Lyle Richardson of The Hockey News wrote an article speculating on the future of San Jose Sharks captain Logan Couture. In the article, Richardson wonders if the Sharks will look to move the Guelph, Ontario native once he is back in the lineup. The Sharks have made moves in recent years to shed their high-priced veterans, and at 34 years of age, Couture would fit that description. He is entering the fifth year of an eight-year $64MM contract that carries an annual cap hit of $8MM.
Richardson is not the first pundit to suggest that the Sharks will move on from the center. Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff said earlier this week that he believed that Couture was a prime trade candidate, and even added that he could see the Sharks using their final retained salary slot to facilitate a move. It would make sense for the Sharks to move on as they are unlikely to be contenders in the remaining years of Couture’s contract. The team has moved on from Brent Burns, Timo Meier, and Erik Karlsson and has little reason to keep Couture other than to be a mentor for some of their younger players.
Couture is coming off a very productive season in which he scored 27 goals and 40 assists in 82 games. His 67 points last year weren’t far off his career high of 70 points that he registered in 2018-19. While he was part of a power play that was led by Norris Trophy winner Karlsson, he only recorded 20 points with the man advantage, a number that isn’t above his average production. And while San Jose has little urgency to trade him, Couture’s trade value is probably the highest it will be for the remainder of his contract.
For Couture’s part, he has talked about his predicament before. On an August episode of the San Jose Hockey Now podcast, Couture said that he would love to end his career in San Jose, but he wanted to play more meaningful games. Something that isn’t likely to happen in San Jose for at least a few seasons. While some might view Couture’s statement as neutral, his words do show that he has a desire to play for a winning team.
Examining The Pittsburgh Penguins Bottom Six Options
The Pittsburgh Penguins saw more turnover this offseason than any other organization in the NHL. From the hiring of President of Hockey Operations and General Manager Kyle Dubas to the signing of a multitude of fourth liners, the Pittsburgh Penguins look wildly different than they did six months ago. It’s certainly a welcome change in the Steel City after the Penguins missed the playoffs for the first time since 2006.
In a recent season preview that was completed by Sean Gentille, Shayna Goldman, and Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic, the trio pointed out that one of the biggest issues with the Penguins last season was the lack of support from the bottom six forward group. The group was so bad that nearly half of it was put on waivers before the trade deadline. Kasperi Kapanen was claimed, Brock McGinn was traded, and many others departed in free agency or were traded away.
Kyle Dubas completely overhauled the bottom six almost exclusively through free agency. In the early days of free agency, the Penguins signed Noel Acciari, Lars Eller, Vinnie Hinostroza, Andreas Johnsson, Joona Koppanen, Matt Nieto, and Radim Zohorna. Dubas also traded for Rem Pitlick who was a throw-in as part of the Erik Karlsson trade. These eight players now find themselves competing with the remaining Penguins’ bottom six options Jeff Carter, Alexander Nylander and Drew O’Connor, as well as Colin White who is in camp on a PTO. The group of 12 will be competing for six or seven NHL spots in the Penguins forward group.
Competition is almost always a good thing in the NHL and the Penguins training camp has seen a lot of it. Very little is set in their bottom six, except that it will likely be again void of offence. While the group doesn’t have a ton of offensive firepower, they clearly have an identity, which is something that didn’t exist in previous seasons in Pittsburgh. Dubas has targeted players who are capable defensively, can skate with pace, and won’t hand the game away by giving up backbreaking goals. The same can’t be said for the Penguins’ bottom six last season.
With all this, one must wonder which players will have the inside track to start opening night on the Penguins’ third and fourth line. Let’s look at the way Head Coach Mike Sullivan and the Penguins might utilize their options.
In a perfect world, Eller would be a perfect fourth-line center, but in Pittsburgh, he will likely see duty as a third-line pivot. At 34 years old, Eller’s best days are behind him, but he is still a very capable penalty killer and is defensively sound. Eller doesn’t offer the offensive pop he did in his last 20s, but he is just a year removed from a 31-point season.
Flanking Eller on the left side will likely be O’Connor, the Penguins love his size and speed and are hoping he can piece it all together. It goes to show how top-heavy the Penguins are when they are counting on a player who has eight goals and nine assists in 78 career games to be a key component of their third line.
When healthy, it seems very possible that the Penguins will deploy Nylander. The former eighth-overall pick has the pedigree to be a scorer in the NHL, but he has never been able to produce enough offense to stick with an NHL club. Nylander will start the season on the Penguins second line in the absence of Jake Guentzel, and depending on his production he could find himself flanking the right side of the third line, or exposed to waivers.
The Penguins’ fourth line is where it gets interesting. Nieto and Acciari were targeted by Dubas on July 1st and fit the identity that Dubas and Sullivan are building for that group. Nieto is a terrific penalty killer and will be utilized in that role a lot, while Acciari adds a physical element and is good defensively. Both players can add a bit of offense as well, Nieto is coming off a season in which he posted 12 goals and 12 assists in 81 games, while Acciari had 14 goals and 9 assists last season in 77 games.
Finally, last season’s lightning rod Carter remains under contract for one more season and is still a favorite of Coach Sullivan. Carter was never removed from the Penguins lineup last year, despite having the worst season of his professional career. Carter looked run down at times and was consistently a step behind when it came to both offense and defense. However, he was utilized in a third-line center role and probably shouldn’t have been. Carter could perform better when being deployed less often and in a more sheltered role. Given Sullivan’s affinity for Carter, it would take a lot to remove the 38-year-old from Pittsburgh’s lineup.
How the Penguins bottom six will look on opening night remains a mystery. But it should be one of the more exciting roster battles to see in the final week of training camp. The Penguins will have to expose a lot of players to waivers to trim down their roster and could lose some bodies to other teams depending on how things shake out.
Sharks Best Positioned To Win First Overall Pick
Harman Dayal of The Athletic writes that the San Jose Sharks are the team that is best positioned to win the draft lottery in 2024 and ultimately the first overall pick. Dayal ranked the top five teams with the best chance to do so, and in his estimation, he believes that the Chicago Blackhawks will have the second-best odds, the Philadelphia Flyers third, Anaheim Ducks fourth, and the Montreal Canadiens rounding out the top 5.
Given the offseason that the Sharks have had, the rankings are hardly a surprise. The Sharks dealt the reigning Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson to the Pittsburgh Penguins for a lot of bad roster players and several draft picks. The move to embrace a full rebuild was the correct one given where the Sharks are in their roster construction, but it is going to lead to a lot of lean years and in Dayal’s view this one could be the toughest.
After subtracting Karlsson, the Sharks added Mikael Granlund, Mike Hoffman, Jan Rutta, Filip Zadina, and Anthony Duclair. While several of those players still have something to offer a team, none of them appear likely to be with the Sharks long-term and most of the players will be asked to play this season in a roster spot that doesn’t match their current skillset. Take Rutta for example, he was a terrific sixth defenseman on the Stanley Cup winning Tampa Bay Lightning squads but struggled last season in Pittsburgh when he was asked to play in the top-4 in the absence of Kris Letang and Jeff Petry. Rutta was exposed as a liability on most nights in that role, and this year will be asked to play on San Jose’s top defensive pairing. It’s going to be a tough year for the Sharks’ defense as they likely don’t have a single defenseman on their roster that could play in the top-4 of a playoff team.
Zadina is also going to be asked to play a role that doesn’t match his skillset as he is currently pencilled in to play in the Sharks top line. He had trouble finding minutes in Detroit and was a healthy scratch at times. Now he will be asked to dress against opponents’ top units, which might make for a tough year for the 23-year-old who is trying to rebuild his stock after struggling with the Red Wings.
Outside of Duclair, every player the Sharks acquired this offseason was a lightning rod for criticism with their former clubs. Granlund in Pittsburgh was the move that probably got Ron Hextall fired as he didn’t mix with the Penguins, Hoffman wore out his welcome in Montreal and didn’t provide much besides a shot. Dayal is predicting that all these ingredients will be a recipe for disaster in San Jose, but it could also be the shot in the arm that their rebuild needs if they are in fact able to win the draft lottery and secure the first overall pick in 2024.
Pittsburgh Penguins Hire Doug Wilson
The Pittsburgh Penguins announced this morning that have hired former San Jose Sharks general manager Doug Wilson as a Senior Advisor of Hockey Operations. According to the Penguins press release, Wilson’s role will see him provide his opinion and counsel to Penguins president and general manager Kyle Dubas, as well as offer his expertise relating to all hockey matters, including personnel decisions.
Wilson brings over four decades of NHL experience to the Penguins management group having spent over 25 years in management with the San Jose Sharks on top of his 16-year Hall-of-Fame playing career. Wilson oversaw a Sharks team that was consistently in contention without ever undergoing a true rebuild. Something the Penguins are likely staring down when the Sidney Crosby–Evgeni Malkin–Kris Letang era of hockey comes to an end.
Wilson was inducted into the Hockey Hall-of-Fame as a player in 2020 after dressing in 1024 career NHL games split between the Sharks and Chicago Blackhawks. The Ottawa, Ontario native recorded 237 goals in his career and 827 points and was the Norris Trophy winner in 1982.
He spent 19 years as the general manager of the Sharks, guiding them to 14 playoff appearances as well as a Presidents’ Trophy in 2009, to go along with six division titles. The Sharks never did win a cup under Wilson’s tutelage, coming close in 2016 when they lost in the Stanley Cup final to the Penguins.
Since arriving in Pittsburgh, Dubas has rebuilt the Penguins both off and on the ice, having overhauled their defense, their forward group, and now the hockey operations department. It should make for an interesting season in Pittsburgh as there is renewed optimism after the Penguins missed the playoffs for the first time since 2006. The Penguins have felt stale since 2018 and with the addition of Dubas, along with the Erik Karlsson trade, it seems the Penguins are trending in a positive direction as they enter what is likely to be the final run with this core.
Can The Pittsburgh Penguins Actually Sign Tomas Tatar?
There aren’t many impact unsigned free agents remaining at this point in the offseason, but one name of note is forward Tomas Tatar. Tatar has been linked to several teams, including the Buffalo Sabres as an inexpensive replacement for the injured Jack Quinn. One team that popped up in the rumor mill last week was the Pittsburgh Penguins. Rob Rossi of The Athletic wrote that the Penguins were keenly interested but it all came down to whether Tatar would get a guaranteed contract offer elsewhere as the Penguins appeared to be offering a PTO for training camp in Pittsburgh with the expectation of a contract after. But can the Penguins realistically fit in another contract for a player coming off a season in which he scored 20 goals and 28 assists in 82 games?
In most off-seasons, the answer to that question would be an emphatic no. But the summer of 2023 has been unlike any other offseason. Players like Blake Wheeler have signed for less than $1MM annually. Matt Duchene took a one-year contract for $3MM despite being a year removed from topping 80 points, and Tatar remains unsigned despite providing consistent secondary scoring.
But all of this doesn’t necessarily mean the answer is a resounding yes, the Penguins would need to do some cap gymnastics to fit Tatar into the sliver of room they have under the salary cap ceiling. Currently, the Penguins have just north of $220K, which is obviously well below the NHL minimum.
Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas has said previously that he would use waivers as a means of becoming cap compliant, and the Penguins have plenty of players who could be placed on waivers to open up room for Tatar. Alexander Nylander and Rem Pitlick are two players that could be exposed and sent to the AHL to open up the room, but would that be enough to sign Tatar? The answer is a giant unknown at this time, but as we inch closer to training camp it becomes more and more possible.
Dan Kingerski of Pittsburgh Hockey Now explored another idea in an article as he wondered if a potential Jeff Carter trade would be possible. The 38-year-old London, Ontario native is in the final year of his contract with a cap hit of $3.125MM and is coming off a season in which he scored just 13 goals and 16 assists in 79 games and looked lost at times both offensively and defensively. Kingerski provides options in the article, the most interesting of which would have the Penguins retain 50% of Carter’s contract and staple a second-round pick to him to facilitate a move. While this scenario seems possible, the biggest caveat to a potential deal would be Carter’s full no-movement clause. Given all these moving parts, it seems unlikely any contending team would have room to take on even half of Carter’s cap hit and even less likely that Carter would waive his no-move to make it happen. Kyle Dubas has worked one miracle this summer in moving out Jeff Petry and Mikael Granlund for Erik Karlsson, but can he make another one happen?
Much like the Karlsson situation it feels like the longer this drags out the likelier it becomes the player ends up with the Penguins. But to make it happen Tatar is going to have to take a massive pay cut and perhaps accept just a one-year contract. A far cry from the $3.3MM annually that Daily Faceoff projected he would get on a three-year deal when free agency opened.
Trade Market Quiet For Noah Hanifin
It appears that the holdup for a potential Noah Hanifin trade has been due to an underwhelming trade market. This comes from Sportsnet 960’s Pat Steinberg who also reported a few days ago that the trade market had been soft this summer for one of the Calgary Flames’ other trade chips Mikael Backlund.
Both Backlund and Hanifin will be free agents next summer, and while Backlund expressed an interest in seeing the season play out before signing an extension, Hanifin has said he doesn’t plan to sign a deal to extend his stay in Calgary.
Under normal circumstances, a 26-year-old first-pairing defenseman would be highly coveted, but as Steinberg reports, the Flames just haven’t received any strong offers. The Pittsburgh Penguins reportedly had interest earlier in the summer, but nothing ever materialized on the trade front, and given their pursuit of Erik Karlsson one must wonder if Penguins general manager used Calgary as leverage to get a better deal for Pittsburgh.
Lyle Richardson of The Hockey News wrote today that when the deal for Karlsson happened there was an expectation that there would be movement on the Hanifin front, but it has yet to materialize. He also speculates that perhaps the Flames will keep the rearguard until the March trade deadline when more teams will have accrued cap space due to injuries.
On the ice, Hanifin has been everything Calgary could have hoped for when they acquired him from the Carolina Hurricanes in a 2018 trade. He has averaged over 21 minutes a night during his time in Calgary and has put up 31 goals and 125 assists in 359 games with the Flames. Any potential team that acquires the Boston native would be getting a player capable of playing first-pairing minutes or being an exceptional second-pairing defenseman. Hanifin is an excellent skater and can generally be counted on for 35-40 points per season. He is in the final year of a contract that carries a $4.95MM cap hit and reportedly has an 8-team modified no-trade clause, meaning that Calgary has quite a few options to facilitate a potential move.
At the beginning of the summer, it looked as though the Flames would be busy in the trade market with several players approaching free agency. But, thus far general manager Craig Conroy has been quiet and may just start the season with several prominent free agents. It will make for interesting theatre as Flames fans don’t have to look back far to remember the exodus of top-end talent in the summer of 2022 that saw Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk take their talents south of the border. Calgary can ill afford to lose more high-end players for nothing and will likely be looking to make a flurry of moves in-season unless something materializes in the upcoming weeks.
Snapshots: Letang/Karlsson, Lundell, Top 50 Prospects
One potential aspect of concern for Pittsburgh Penguins fans regarding the acquisition of Erik Karlsson is the rather rocky history of his playing with another high-powered right-shot defenseman. While there were no off-ice issues between him and similarly offensively elite teammate Brent Burns with the San Jose Sharks, they didn’t seem to exactly benefit each other on the ice, and Karlsson’s performance diminished when he wasn’t the sole go-to offensive defenseman for his team (although injuries also became a factor). With Kris Letang heading things up for the Penguins, it was natural to wonder whether similar issues may arise this time around.
Letang himself says he’s not worried, telling the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Matt Vensel that Karlsson’s fit in Pittsburgh is “unbelievable.” The veteran Penguins defender alluded to the fact that Pittsburgh still has Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin on separate lines and that having two elite puck-moving defenders to play with each at even strength will still allow both Letang and Karlsson to play to their strengths. Regarding his role on Pittsburgh’s power play, Letang said, “If they ask me to play in the pocket, if they ask me to play [in the left circle], on top, net front, it doesn’t matter.”
Elsewhere from around the NHL this evening:
- The Florida Panthers are going to need contributions from everywhere in the lineup to keep their momentum rolling next season after last year’s breakthrough playoff performance, and The Hockey News’ David Dwork believes center Anton Lundell is primed for a breakout campaign in 2023-24. Dwork expects Lundell to see some more power play time next season after taking a small step back in the point production department last year, although he did have a strong postseason with ten points in 21 games. The 2020 12th-overall pick remains on track to become one of the better two-way talents in the game, following closely in the footsteps of teammate and fellow Finn Aleksander Barkov. Lundell will look to build on his rookie season form from 2021-22 when he recorded 44 points in 65 games to match a similarly stellar +33 rating and 56% Corsi For at even strength. He’s been relied upon to play solid penalty-killing minutes throughout both of his NHL seasons so far, too, an area where he did noticeably improve last season.
- NHL Network released their yearly list of the league’s Top 50 Prospects, with 2023-drafted players taking the first four spots on the list. To no one’s surprise, Chicago Blackhawks projected first-line center Connor Bedard tops the list as a projected generational talent, but a fair amount would argue recency bias was quite strong in this year’s list. New Jersey Devils 2021 draft pick Luke Hughes was ranked as the top defenseman at number five on their list, while Minnesota Wild netminder Jesper Wallstedt was ranked as the top netminder at #21.
Poll: Who Won The Erik Karlsson Trade?
For the first time in quite some time, the hockey world saw a blockbuster in early August, watching the San Jose Sharks trade defenseman Erik Karlsson to the Pittsburgh Penguins in a three-team deal. In recent trades over the last several years, teams have typically weaponized cap space as a third-team, retaining salary and usually getting mid to late-round picks in return. A unique aspect of this trade, however, is that the third team, the Montreal Canadiens, were able to take care of some business they had been hoping to accomplish for a while, namely removing forward Mike Hoffman‘s salary off their books.
Running up to the Karlsson trade, speculation had arisen about how much the Sharks would eventually retain on Karlsson’s contract, and for the most part, it was much lower than many experts had theorized. San Jose only retained $1.5MM (13%) of Karlsson’s $11.5MM salary, effectively clearing $10MM from their cap table over the next four years. Nevertheless, the Sharks did take back salary in exchange with Hoffman ($4.5MM), Mikael Granlund ($5MM), and Jan Rutta ($2.75MM), but all three of these deals will be off their books after the 2024-25 NHL season.
Lastly, at face value, the Penguins appear to be the undeniable winner in this deal. Even though he has not played a game for Pittsburgh, acquiring the best player in the deal always looks good. Surprisingly though, and maybe even more importantly long-term than acquiring Karlsson, the Penguins were able to move some poor contracts out from the Ron Hextall era, including Granlund, Rutta, Casey DeSmith ($1.8MM), and Jeff Petry ($4.69MM – 25% retained). New General Manager Kyle Dubas was able to add a $10MM player in Karlsson, while also creating $3MM of cap space in the same deal, a feat that has been largely difficult for most teams in the salary cap era.
Now that the complete trade is public and final, and knowing the perspectives of all three teams, who do you think ultimately won the Karlsson trade?
Who Won The Erik Karlsson Trade?
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Pittsburgh Penguins 60% (1,642)
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Montreal Canadiens 28% (769)
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San Jose Sharks 12% (337)
Total votes: 2,748
Karlsson Notes: Defense Market, Money Retention, Interested Teams
A short time after the news broke of Erik Karlsson officially joining the Pittsburgh Penguins, news surfaced that defenseman Mathew Dumba and the Arizona Coyotes were expected to reach a one-year agreement. Cory Lavalette of the North State Journal thinks that with the Karlsson trade drama wrapped up, this might have unfrozen the slow-moving defenseman market this summer (Tweet Link). Lavalette surmised that the Carolina Hurricanes may now have a better market to move out one of their defensemen.
This view should be taken with a grain of salt, as Lavalette’s initial thought was in response to Elliotte Friedman announcing that the Coyotes and Dumba had come to an agreement. It may very well be true that the trade for Karlsson will lead to more defensemen being traded in the next couple of weeks, but given the vast differences in playstyle, and the unlikelihood that the Coyotes were one of the teams trying to acquire Karlsson, it would be difficult to draw any sort of correlation between these two moves.
However, in defense of Lavalette’s view, the Hurricanes do have a plethora of right-handed shooting defensemen, and with rumors earlier in the offseason indicating the team might be interested in moving on from defenseman Brett Pesce, the other team’s interested in Karlsson could consider Pesce a solid consolation prize. Even though their play styles are not similar, Pesce would largely be an improvement to any team’s right-hand side of their defensive core.
Other notes:
- One of the more surprising aspects of the Karlsson trade this morning was the money retained by the San Jose Sharks in the deal. Most recent reporting indicated that the Sharks and a potential third team would have to retain at least $3.5MM (30.4%) of Karlsson’s contract in total to make the deal financially work for the Penguins. Instead, even though the Montreal Canadiens were involved in the deal as well, the only retention came from the Sharks at $1.5MM (13%) of Karlsson’s $11.5MM salary. A Sharks beat writer, Curtis Pashelka reported that a lot of retention scenarios were on the table, and Mike Grier made a point to get it as low as possible. This reasonably impacted the return for San Jose, but it was a solid part of the deal for the Sharks, nonetheless.
- Also speaking to Grier about the Karlsson trade, Greg Wyshynski of ESPN reports there were actually two other teams down to the wire in the trade negotiations. For weeks now, all signs had pointed to Pittsburgh as the eventual landing spot for Karlsson, with the Hurricanes, Seattle Kraken, and Toronto Maple Leafs having noted interest as well. Grier would not indicate which teams specifically, but it is an interesting factoid at the very least.