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Erik Karlsson

Snapshots: Karlsson, Voynov, Blidh, Varady

July 2, 2018 at 6:55 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 3 Comments

Although the Senators have offered defenseman Erik Karlsson a contract extension as they promised they would, it doesn’t appear like it was well-received.  Larry Brooks of the New York Post reports (Twitter link) that Ottawa has given teams interested in acquiring him permission to discuss a contract extension with the 28-year-old.

Brooks adds that Karlsson is seeking the same contract that Kings blueliner Drew Doughty received at eight years and $88MM.  That appears to be too rich for the Senators and accordingly, it appears that the odds of him playing elsewhere next season have gone up.

More from around the league:

  • Slava Voynov’s path back to the NHL took a step forward today as he was granted an expungement of his domestic abuse conviction, reports Curtis Zupke of the LA Times. This paves the way for him to seek a hearing with Commissioner Gary Bettman about being reinstated into the league.  The Kings still hold Voynov’s rights as he sits on the voluntary retired list following his original contract being terminated.  While all signs point to Los Angeles not wanting to bring him back, they would be allowed to trade his rights if and when he is reinstated.
  • The Bruins have re-signed winger Anton Blidh to a one-year, two-way contract, reports TVA Sports’ Renaud Lavoie (Twitter link). The deal is worth the league minimum $650K at the NHL level.  The 23-year-old suited up once with Boston last season but spent the majority of the year in the minors where he collected 11 goals and 15 assists in 71 games.
  • The Coyotes have filled their head coaching vacancy at the AHL level. The team announced that they have appointed Jay Varady as the new bench boss of the Tucson Roadrunners.  He spent last season as the head coach of OHL Kingston while he had previously filled that same role with Sioux City of the USHL.  Varady takes the place of Mike Van Ryn, who was named an assistant coach with St. Louis back in May.

Boston Bruins| Ottawa Senators| Snapshots| Utah Mammoth Erik Karlsson| Slava Voynov

3 comments

Ottawa Offers Erik Karlsson Contract Extension

July 2, 2018 at 4:59 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 10 Comments

The Ottawa Senators kept to their word Sunday as the team offered superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson a contract extension, according to NHL.com’s David Satriano. Terms of the extension offer were not disclosed. Despite the rumors of unhappiness with the ownership and his not willing to accept a “hometown” discount that has led to quite a bit of trade speculation over the past six months, general manager Pierre Dorion said the team had to make one final effort to keep Karlsson in the fold.

“We don’t really want to talk about roster players, contract negotiations, trades, all these things, but I think we owe it to our fans and we made a promise at the town hall that we would make a contract offer to Erik Karlsson and we’ve done so,” Dorion said Sunday.

Karlsson is in the last year of a seven-year, $45.5MM deal that he signed in 2012, which looks like a bargain as his AAV sits at just $6.5MM. However, with the sudden increase in salaries for star defenseman having increased, it’s likely that a new Karlsson deal will break the bank. Several defenseman have cashed in over the past few days, including Drew Doughty (eight years, $88MM, $11MM AAV), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (eight years, $66MM, $8.25MM AAV) and John Carlson (eight years, $64MM, $8MM AAV).

With increased trade rumors over the past week, there still hasn’t been a trade yet. The team has made it clear to teams that they are asking for a big return for their superstar center and have made it even more challenging for teams as they want the team also to take on the contract of Bobby Ryan, which still has four year left at $7.25MM. The Vegas Golden Knights have been the most talked about team since the trade deadline to get a deal done and they still could, but nothing has materialized yet. The Senators still have hope that Karlsson will sign an extension.

“I think Erik wants to be a Senator for life,” Dorion said then. “I don’t want to speak for him, I’ll let him speak for himself. We’ll see what the next few months bring, but if Erik Karlsson is here on July 1, we will be making him a contract offer.”

Ottawa Senators| Pierre Dorion| Vegas Golden Knights Bobby Ryan| Drew Doughty| Erik Karlsson| John Carlson| Oliver Ekman-Larsson| Trade Rumors

10 comments

Kings To Sign Drew Doughty To Eight-Year Extension

July 1, 2018 at 1:25 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 7 Comments

July 1: The Kings have officially announced the contract, signing Doughty to an eight-year, $88MM contract extension. The deal will kick in for the 2018-19 season, and make Doughty the highest-paid defenseman in the league, barring an even bigger extension being signed before then.

June 29: A major impending free agent is about to be off the market, but it’s not a member of the 2018 class, but the 2019 class. When July 1st arrives and players with expiring contracts after next season are first eligible to sign extensions, Los Angeles defenseman Drew Doughty is expected to re-sign with the Kings. TSN Insider Pierre LeBrun reports that the two sides put the finishing touches on a max eight-year extension today that will be officially signed on Sunday. No financial terms have been disclosed.

The Kings are undoubtedly one of the teams that benefited the most from the massive salary cap spike this off-season. That added flexibility allowed L.A. to add much-needed scoring in the form of Ilya Kovalchuk without losing the breathing room needed to retain Doughty. For a time, many speculated that Doughty would test free agency next summer, but over the past few months the Norris Trophy-winner has made it clear that he would prefer to stay with the Kings. The team’s acquisition of Kovalchuk and continued search for talent this off-season was likely the very last boost of confidence that Doughty needed to re-up in L.A.

Doughty now joins fellow defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson of the Arizona Coyotes and center Logan Couture of the San Jose Sharks as potential superstar free agents who will instead sign on with their current teams as soon as possible. Doughty is the biggest name so far and, if previous reports prove true, will soon be the highest paid defenseman in hockey. Doughty has gone on the record as saying that he would like to be paid more than Nashville Predators blue liner P.K. Subban, who is currently the highest-paid defenseman in the league at $9MM AAV. LeBrun’s TSN colleague Darren Dreger is among many speculating that deal will land in the realm of $11MM per year over the eight years, which would make him the new top dog among defenders and the second-highest paid player in the league – at least until Erik Karlsson signs his next contract.

Free Agency| Los Angeles Kings| Nashville Predators| Newsstand| San Jose Sharks| Utah Mammoth Drew Doughty| Erik Karlsson| Ilya Kovalchuk| Logan Couture| Oliver Ekman-Larsson| P.K. Subban| Salary Cap

7 comments

Eastern Notes: Tavares, O’Reilly, Ryan, Pickard

June 30, 2018 at 6:42 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 5 Comments

With the John Tavares watch about to hit the 11th hour before free agency hits, The Athletic’s Arthur Staple reminds people that the superstar center doesn’t have to make a decision today. He can wait to make a decision later. However, the longer he waits, the more telling his decision will be.

If he opts not to agree to a contract tonight, then the New York Islanders are almost guaranteed to be out of the running for Tavares as even the Islanders can’t offer an eighth year after tonight. If all New York can offer is seven years, then it’s highly unlikely he’ll return to New York.

The other implication to not choosing a team today is that many teams are waiting for Tavares to make a decision as well as players. The dominos will begin to fall after Tavares signs, so the longer Tavares waits, the more the market will be held up. For example, Toronto, who has dubbed center Derek Ryan as their consolation prize if the can’t sign Tavares, according to The Athletic’s James Mirtle (subscription required), must force the highly-coveted Ryan to wait. That’s also the case with trade candidates such as Jeff Skinner and likely Ryan O’Reilly as their value is likely to shoot up once Tavares is off the board.

  • It looks the O’Reilly sweepstakes are even more muddled than ever as many felt that if the Buffalo Sabres were to trade away their star center, it would be before the Sabres would have to fork over his $7.5MM signing bonus which is due at midnight tonight. If no deal is made within the next few hours, then the situation can go two different ways, according to Mike Harrington of The Buffalo News. The most likely scenario would suggest that if they pay him the $7.5MM themselves, the plan would be to keep O’Reilly and hope that he wants to stay with the team. However, Harrington also adds that perhaps Buffalo is willing to eat the $7.5MM to get a greater package in return from a team with the possibility that a trade has already been worked out and they are both waiting for July 1. The scribe adds that the two teams who have most coveted O’Reilly are the Montreal Canadiens and the St. Louis Blues. However, the Blues are not offering their top prospect, Robert Thomas, as part of any trade.
  • While many teams believe that the holdup of a potential Erik Karlsson trade is being held up because of the $2MM bonus due to forward Bobby Ryan on July 1, that is not correct, according to Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch. The scribe writes that Ryan and the four years and $29MM remaining on his contract, which are expected to be included in any Karlsson deal, already received his $2MM bonus on May 15, which means he will only cost a team $5.5MM next season.
  • Sean Shapiro of The Athletic writes that many teams are looking for cheap backup goalie options and suggests that Toronto Maple Leafs’ Calvin Pickard could quickly find himself in high demand. Pickard, who was a solid backup for the Colorado Avalanche during the 2016-17 season, found himself in an odd position after being taken in last year’s expansion draft by the Vegas Golden Knights and then traded off to Toronto to share AHL goaltending duties with Garret Sparks. Together they helped clinch the Calder Cup Trophy as he finished with a 2.31 GAA and a .918 save percentage. Backing up Sparks during the AHL playoffs, Pickard got into three games, putting up a 1.00 GAA and a .956 save percentage.

AHL| Buffalo Sabres| Free Agency| Montreal Canadiens| New York Islanders| St. Louis Blues| Toronto Maple Leafs Bobby Ryan| Calvin Pickard| Derek Ryan| Erik Karlsson| Garret Sparks| Jeff Skinner| John Tavares

5 comments

Snapshots: Karlsson, Thornton, Talbot, Brodziak

June 24, 2018 at 5:55 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

While the free agent market is slimming more and more after John Carlson opted to re-sign with the Washington Capitals, the trade market has barely gotten active as teams wait to see how the free agent market shakes out. Regardless that could change in the next few days. While there were a few trades this weekend during the draft, one name that stayed put is Ottawa Senators’ defenseman Erik Karlsson.

According to Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun, general manager Pierre Dorion was fielding phone calls all the way up to the Senators picked at No. 4, but still hasn’t found the right deal as he’s looking for a big haul of players and picks considering that Karlsson is a franchise player.

As expected, Garrioch writes that the Vegas Golden Knights were at the forefront in trying to make a deal and Vegas was prepared to take the contract of Bobby Ryan, who still has four years at $7.25MM AAV remaining on his contract, but other teams are also trying to get into the Karlsson sweepstakes, including the Carolina Hurricanes, Tampa Bay Lightning, San Jose Sharks and the Washington Capitals. No word on whether the other teams are willing to take on Ryan’s contract. While the Capitals are likely out of the running now that they’ve signed Carlson, the Carlson signing may force other teams to press harder to acquire Karlsson.

  • David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period reports that there is mutual interest between Joe Thornton and the San Jose Sharks to return to the team, regardless of whether the team signs John Tavares or not. Thornton, who suffered a season-ending torn MCL in January, would have to come back at a lower salary than the $8MM he made last year, but at 38 years old, he can still be a productive player even if he is forced to play on a lower line. Thornton put up 13 goals and 23 assists in 47 games, but “Jumbo Joe” is well past the days of putting up 82 points in 2015-16.
  • Pagnotta also commented on Edmonton Oilers goaltender Cam Talbot as he says both the Oilers and Talbot have agreed to hold off on extension talks until the start of the new season. The 30-year-old Talbot had been a major piece to the team’s success up until this past year. After posting 2.39 GAA and a .919 save percentage two years ago, he struggled this season, posting a 3.02 GAA and a .908 save percentage. The team likely wants to ensure that Talbot bounces back to form before offering him an extension.
  • Jeremy Rutherford of The Athletic writes that the St. Louis Blues and center Kyle Brodziak both have interest in an extension. The 34-year-old center put up his best season since 2011-12 as a fourth-line center. He tallied 10 goals and 33 points last season. While the Blues have bigger concerns at the moment, Rutherford points out that neither party is in a big rush.

Carolina Hurricanes| Edmonton Oilers| Ottawa Senators| San Jose Sharks| Snapshots| St. Louis Blues| Tampa Bay Lightning| Vegas Golden Knights| Washington Capitals Bobby Ryan| Cam Talbot| Erik Karlsson| Joe Thornton| John Carlson| John Tavares| Kyle Brodziak

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Vegas Golden Knights Revisiting Talks On Erik Karlsson

June 19, 2018 at 11:04 am CDT | by Gavin Lee 8 Comments

The Ottawa Senators made waves this morning when they traded Mike Hoffman to the San Jose Sharks, but may not be done stealing the headlines this week. Frank Seravalli of TSN reports that all eyes are now on captain Erik Karlsson, and that talks have started up again with the Vegas Golden Knights who came close to acquiring the superstar defenseman at the trade deadline:

There are lots of teams around the NHL that have perked up and believe that Erik Karlsson could be on the move at some point this week as the NHL Awards wrap up in Vegas on Wednesday night and teams head to Dallas for the NHL Draft. The team to watch continues to be the Vegas Golden Knights, the team that went down to the wire with the Ottawa Senators at 2:45pm before the 3pm trade deadline back in February, nearly pulling off a blockbuster deal to bring the two-time Norris trophy winner to the Stanley Cup finalist Golden Knights. It seems like those two teams have revisited those talks, they’ve heated up. To be sure Pierre Dorion’s phone is ringing.

The Golden Knights apparently came as close as anyone during the trade deadline, with a deal falling apart because the team refused to include top prospect Cody Glass. Glass, selected sixth overall last summer, had 102 points in the WHL this season and looks like a future top-two center for the Knights and potential star. While Karlsson is obviously worthy of a huge package, the team likely wasn’t thrilled with the idea of trading for him only to see him hit free agency in the summer of 2019. Now, as July 1st approaches the Senators can potentially get Karlsson to agree to a long-term extension with the acquiring team, increasing his price tag even further.

It’s not just Vegas that will be after the 28-year old defenseman if he’s truly on the block. Karlsson is the type of talent that could turn a playoff bubble team into a contender, even despite his relatively down 2017-18 season. After offseason ankle surgery Karlsson started the year playing at a level not indicative of his talent, but turned it around and ended up with 62 points by season’s end. That came with just nine goals though, a relatively low total for Karlsson who has five times scored at least 16 in a season.

There will be plenty of interest from around the league, and the Senators could potentially land a huge package of picks and prospects before Friday’s draft. That said, the team is still in the troublesome situation of having to give Colorado either their pick this year—the fourth-overall selection and a potential shot at Filip Zadina—or next year, which could end up near the very top of the draft given their exodus of talent.

Ottawa Senators| Vegas Golden Knights Erik Karlsson

8 comments

Mike Hoffman Traded To San Jose Sharks

June 19, 2018 at 7:58 am CDT | by Gavin Lee 22 Comments

9:20am: The Sharks have flipped Hoffman to the Florida Panthers. For more information check the latest story.

7:55am: The Ottawa Senators have traded Mike Hoffman, Cody Donaghy and a 2020 fifth-round pick to the San Jose Sharks in exchange for Mikkel Boedker, Julius Bergman and a 2020 sixth-round selection. This comes after weeks of trade speculation surrounding Hoffman, following an incident between his fiancee, and team captain Erik Karlsson and his wife. Senators GM Pierre Dorion released a statement regarding the trade, that seems to point towards a rift in the locker room:

Today’s trade showcases our determination to strengthen the future of the team by improving chemistry, leadership and character in the locker room and on the ice. We are confident it is a step in the right direction for the long-term success of this organization. 

Hoffman, 28, is about as consistent a goal scorer as you can find in the league right now. After four straight seasons with at least 22 goals, Hoffman will look to establish even better numbers in San Jose playing with what has quickly become an impressive forward group. After trading for and re-signing Evander Kane, and now adding Hoffman to the mix, the Sharks have used poor off-ice reputations to acquire top end talent on the cheap. With Joe Thornton expected to re-sign for a relatively low price to remain in San Jose, the team has three legitimate scoring lines that can do damage at even strength.

While Hoffman brings an upgrade in goal scoring, Boedker may fit into Ottawa’s system with ease. The two-way speedster can help the team utilize Guy Boucher’s defensive style, bringing an added level of responsibility to the forward group. Still, it’s not clear where the goals will come from in Ottawa, especially given the team is still considering a trade of Karlsson. Just this morning, Darren Dreger of TSN tweeted that the team is listening on both Karlsson and Zack Smith as they attempt a full rebuild. If they do pull a full overhaul on the roster, there may be another trade coming for Boedker, who is owed $3MM in each of the next two years (with a $4MM cap hit).

Even with Boedker’s $4MM cap hit, the Senators will save some money the next two years. Hoffman is signed for two seasons with a cap hit just under $5.2MM, a number that the Sharks can easily afford. San Jose headed into this offseason with a huge amount of cap space, and even with the Kane extension should be able to bring back all of their restricted free agents and Thornton.

For Ottawa, the simple fact is that they needed to move Hoffman before the season began. The off-ice problems had become too much, and they did well to at least acquire an asset in Boedker and a prospect in Bergman. The latter may be the key to the deal, as a puck-moving defenseman who will add another lottery ticket to the pile for the Senators. Make no mistake, Bergman isn’t an elite prospect ready to make a huge impact at the NHL level, but should play for the Senators at some point at least in a limited role. The second-round pick recorded 20 points in 65 games for the San Jose Barracuda this season, his third in the minor leagues since being drafted in 2014. Bergman has one year remaining on his entry-level contract, meaning he’ll be a restricted free agent in 2019.

It’s tough to think that the Senators will be better after this deal, and should they blow up the entire program and try to rebuild it could get even worse. The tough part about any scorched earth rebuild though is the fact that the Colorado Avalanche own their first-round pick from either this year (fourth overall) or next. The idea of giving up a real shot at first overall and Jack Hughes next season is a frightening one for a team trying to turn itself around, though it may be the only rational decision. Giving up the fourth pick this season is still an extremely difficult decision, especially if they believe Filip Zadina will still be available.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Newsstand| Ottawa Senators| Pierre Dorion| San Jose Sharks| Transactions Erik Karlsson| Mike Hoffman| Mikkel Boedker

22 comments

Snapshots: Buffalo’s Other Picks, Faulk, Draisaitl, Honka

June 17, 2018 at 5:55 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 1 Comment

While their first-round pick in next week’s NHL Entry Draft is a no-brainer, there is still a lot of decision-making in Buffalo. One key change that Buffalo Sabres general manager Jason Botterill has said he needs to make is the improvement of their drafting, most particularly, the drafting of players later in the draft, especially from the third-round and on, according to the Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington.

The main reason for that is the team’s inability to get players drafted in the third round or later to contribute to the Sabres’ team. Since 2010, the Sabres have had seven goals from any player drafted in the third round or later — all from 2013 third-round pick Nicholas Baptiste.

“Those later picks show the importance of having a strong organization across the board,” Botterill said. “When you’re dealing with mid-round picks and later-round picks, it’s making sure your amateur staff brings in the right people and then having a strong developmental model.”

The team has already seen some success in Botterill’s first draft last season when he selected Casey Mittlestadt in the first round, which looks to be a solid pick. However, it’s some of their other picks that already seem to be working out as second-rounder Marcus Davidsson and third-round pick Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen are getting solid reviews after their first season since being drafted.

  • While Carolina Hurricanes’ defenseman Justin Faulk has been linked to the Edmonton Oilers many times since the NHL season ended, the Edmonton Journal’s David Staples writes that his value shouldn’t be as high as many project Faulk to hold.  The scribe writes that while the Oilers would be interested in acquiring the 26-year-old blueliner, his minus-26 rating and 12 even-strength points don’t suggest that the Oilers should be giving up a top talent or a high draft pick for him.
  • Sticking with the Oilers, rumors suggesting that the Oilers are considering trading center Leon Draisaitl are erroneous, according to Edmonton Journal’s Jim Matheson. The scribe writes there is no way Edmonton would trade Draisaitl, who the team signed to an eight-year, $68MM contract a year ago, not even for Ottawa’s Erik Karlsson. The 21-year-old has scored 54 goals and 147 points in the past two seasons.
  • In a separate tweet, Matheson writes that the Oilers could be interested in acquiring Dallas Stars defenseman Julius Honka, who could find himself without a spot in Dallas’ crowded defense. However, the scribe writes that Honka isn’t worth the No. 10 pick in next week’s draft. He suggests the team offer their second-round pick in hopes of acquiring the 22-year-old right-shot defenseman. Despite looking early in training camp last season as a key youngster to make the team, Honka found himself on the outside looking in as he had trouble breaking in to the team’s lineup. In 42 games last season with the Stars, the 2014 first-rounder played 13:01 of ATOI and posted just four points in limited action.

Buffalo Sabres| Carolina Hurricanes| Dallas Stars| Edmonton Oilers| Snapshots Erik Karlsson| Julius Honka| Justin Faulk| Leon Draisaitl| NHL Entry Draft

1 comment

Latest On The Ottawa Senators & Mike Hoffman

June 15, 2018 at 2:39 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 8 Comments

As a general policy, PHR does not comment or report on a player’s off-ice situations unless they have a significant impact on their status with a team or around the league. This site is meant to wade through the unfounded accusations or hearsay and bring you only the most accurate transaction-related information and reporting from around the NHL and professional hockey. In this case, we decided not to cover a story on Mike Hoffman and Erik Karlsson of the Ottawa Senators because any effect it may have had on their status with the team was unclear. Now, as reports start coming from respected hockey sources on how the market has changed for an impending trade, we feel the need to release something on the situation. The original report came from Shaamini Yogaretnam the Ottawa Citizen, and subsequent response from Hoffman and his fiancée has just been published by Bruce Garrioch of the same publication.

Mike Hoffman has been rumored to be on the trade block for months, and the latest situation surrounding him, his fiancée and Erik Karlsson has only raised expectations of his movement. At one point, many believed that Hoffman was guaranteed to be traded before the upcoming NHL Entry Draft, something which is now not so clear. There’s no doubt that he will likely be moved still, but the situation has increased the difficulty of any deal.

In an updated version of the first report, the Ottawa Citizen spoke with Hoffman’s agent Robert Hooper. In his comments, he made it very clear that he believed there was no place in Ottawa for Hoffman any longer as long as Karlsson remained with the team.

What we’ve indicated to Pierre [Dorion, team GM] is that, and let’s call a spade a spade, it would be very difficult for both parties — both Erik and Mike as well as the wives and the fiancées — to co-exist in the same wives’ room and the same dressing room. 

In my 22 years in this business I don’t believe that I’ve ever come across a situation like this. This is an exceptionally unique situation and one that’s very unfortunate. Hopefully it can get resolved as quickly as possible.

This isn’t something we talked about with Pierre just today. We’ve been aware of this situation since the end of the season,

Insiders all around the league are speculating that Hoffman’s value has plummeted though, and could make it a much tougher sell for the Senators. Frank Seravalli of TSN reports that at least two GMs wouldn’t be willing to tough the situation until it is resolved, and Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet believes it’s now a situation that could hurt Pierre Dorion’s reputation around the league. Friedman believes that the team dropped their asking price for Hoffman before the story broke, and that some other teams may see that as “dirty poker.”

If you make this deal without knowing [about the situation]—and I think there might be some teams mad at the agents too, but the agents are trying to protect their clients and Dorion is trying to protect his investment—whatever the case is I think there were some teams just mad at the overall situation: ’Oh, you tried to pull a fast one on us eh? So what else about some of your guys are you not telling us?’ It’s a brutal situation.

In a video attached to Hoffman’s latest response, Garrioch claims that he believed the team was originally looking for a 2019 first-round pick and an established NHL roster player. Now, he believes that the team will have to settle for a prospect and first-round pick instead, and lists the Dallas Stars, Vancouver Canucks, St. Louis Blues, Minnesota Wild and Buffalo Sabres as potential candidates for a trade. Whether that comes to be in the next few days is still unclear.

The situation obviously also has an effect on Karlsson’s future, though the team has known about the situation since well before the original report. Even Hoffman admits that he spoke to his captain about it before the season was over, but that things weren’t resolved. Karlsson has always maintained that he loves the city of Ottawa and the team, though rumblings of a potential trade persist. If the team can’t get their superstar defenseman signed this summer to a long-term extension, the belief is they will look to move him and start a true rebuild.

Hoffman, 28, is under contract for two more seasons at a reasonable cap hit of just under $5.2MM. His production has been excellent through his four full seasons in the NHL, and he’s coming off a 22-goal, 56-point campaign. It’s obvious that many teams would enjoy adding the player to their lineup, but it seems clear that as long as this situation hangs over his head there will be a smaller market for Dorion to work with.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Ottawa Senators| Pierre Dorion Elliotte Friedman| Erik Karlsson| Mike Hoffman

8 comments

Avalanche Prepared To Pick Fourth If Senators Fold

June 13, 2018 at 7:27 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 11 Comments

The first fireworks of the upcoming NHL Draft may show up at pick #4. When the Ottawa Senators acquired Matt Duchene from the Colorado Avalanche, part of the substantial package was a top-ten protected 2018 first-round pick. The terms of the deal afforded the Senators a choice between trading this year’s pick or next year’s pick to Colorado if the pick landed within the top ten spots. Finishing the season with the second-worst record in the league, Ottawa was obviously locked in to the top ten. Even after bad luck dropped them to fourth overall in the NHL Draft Lottery, GM Pierre Dorion confirmed that they would hold on to the pick this year and defer to the 2019 first-rounder.

However, that was back in April and things change. It seems more likely than ever that Erik Karlsson and/or Mike Hoffman will be traded away from Ottawa this off-season and that doesn’t bode well for a Duchene extension either. There also continue to be frustrations over the management of owner Eugene Melnyk and the fiscal future of the organization. Ottawa seems far from a free agent destination right now and no closer to turning around one of the worst records in the NHL. The initial Stanley Cup odds for next season reflect this, as the Senators at 100/1 odds are alone in last place. It’s understandable for public relations purposes that the Sens keep this year’s #4, both to add an exciting new prospect and to all but confirm to fans that the outlook for next season is better this season. It may not be the smart move though.

There is a trio of top prospects in the draft this year: defenseman Rasmus Dahlin and forwards Andrei Svechnikov and Filip Zadina. After that, there is no consensus on the next-best player. In fact, the fourth overall pick more or less marks the beginning of a lesser tier of prospects; not exactly a power position in 2018. Next year, the Senators are almost certainly going to miss the playoffs and will be a lottery team with a chance to land in the top three with a lucky draw. According to odds makers, they are also the favorite to finish 31st, which would give them the best odds at the first overall pick – highly-touted franchise center Jack Hughes – and would mean that they could fall no farther than fourth again. There is risk in giving up a pick as high as #4 this year, but there is also substantial risk in not giving it away, blowing up the roster, and simply hoping for a better finish next year. The pain that the organization and the fans would feel about losing #1 after another brutal season would be far worse than giving up a non-consensus top player at #4 this year. The mounting pressure of that very real possibility could force the Senators to give in and surrender the 2018 pick.

The Avalanche know this and are remaining vigilant. The Denver Post’s Mike Chambers caught up with Colorado Director of Scouting Alan Hepple, who says the team knows what direction they would go in if they wind up with #4 this year after all. Per Chambers, the Senators can wait all the way until they are on the clock to make the pick to instead complete the trade this year. Hepple doesn’t think that will be the case, but the Avs are prepared in case it is. They certainly wouldn’t mind the spot, as the team nabbed defensive phenom Cale Makar in that same draft slot last year and would be happy to make a repeat performance. With their own pick at #16, Hepple says that the team will simply take the best player available, regardless of position, but at #4 they have identified a more pressing organizational need, as they did with the UMass puck-mover Makar last year.

If the first three picks go as expected and Ottawa isn’t thrilled by the next-best name on their draft board, they could crumble under the pressure of the potential repercussions: losing a higher pick next year. It could pay off or it could be a mistake in hindsight; there is no way to tell with a lot riding on the decision. However, if they do, Colorado is ready to jump in. It’s not the most likely outcome, but it remains a possibility, and an intriguing one, as draft day approaches.

Colorado Avalanche| Joe Sakic| Ottawa Senators| Pierre Dorion| Prospects Andrei Svechnikov| Cale Makar| Erik Karlsson| Filip Zadina| Matt Duchene| Mike Hoffman| NHL Entry Draft| Rasmus Dahlin

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