Poll: Who Will Be The Centerpiece Of The Next Big Trade?
Given the players remaining on the free agent market, any further fireworks this summer will likely come via a blockbuster trade. It certainly seems possible too, with more than a few major names being floated around. Who will be the first to go?
The biggest fish available for a lucky team to catch is obviously all-world defenseman Erik Karlsson. With one year remaining on his contract and on a sinking ship in Ottawa, the Senators have little choice but to trade the Norris Trophy winner. However, finding the right deal to get a fair return on a player of Karlsson’s caliber is proving difficult and talks between Ottawa GM Pierre Dorion and both the Tampa Bay Lightning and Dallas Stars have reportedly broken down. The noise surrounding a potential Karlsson trade has died down significantly over the past few days.
Another trade target whose apparent availability is being downplayed in Edmonton Oilers winger Milan Lucic. Early in the off-season, there was rampant speculation that a Lucic trade was inevitable. Some said that the team wanted to move on from the remaining five years and $30MM of the underachieving forward’s contract, while others said that it was Lucic who was unhappy in Edmonton and was seeking a trade. Both sides have denied claims that they are seeking a separation, but as most trade rumors go – where there’s smoke, there’s fire.
There’s also Max Pacioretty, who was close to being traded during draft weekend but ended up remaining with the Montreal Canadiens. The Habs captain is coming off of a down year and is in the final year of his contract, making his trade value the lowest that it has been in years. Yet, it has continually been reported that the Canadiens are listening on offers. Those reports have grown quiet over the last week or so and it could be that Montreal has simply opted to retain one of the faces of their franchise, but don’t rule out the possibility of a deal just yet.
As potential Karlsson, Lucic, and Pacioretty deals have lost some steam, Columbus Blue Jackets’ star Artemi Panarin has emerged as a popular trade target. Panarin, to his credit, was honest with the organization that he remains unsure if he will be willing to sign a long-term extension to stay in Columbus before his contract expires after next season. As a result, GM Jarmo Kekalainen and company have begun to explore any possible trade scenarios should they choose to mitigate the risk of losing Panarin for nothing as a free agent by dealing him away. However, Panarin is still a young and highly productive player who hasn’t flat out said he won’t resign with the Blue Jackets and the team may be understandably cautious in making a decision on what to do with him.
Another situation playing out between a team who would rather hold on to their asset is the Minnesota Wild and winger Jason Zucker. Zucker filed for salary arbitration this off-season and, after a career season, is due a major bump on his previous $2MM salary. However, the Wild have a surplus of NHL-caliber forwards and a likely shortage of cap space needed to sign both Zucker and young defenseman Matt Dumba. Dumba and the blue line are the priority, potentially making Zucker expendable. Minnesota will do what they can to keep him, but may not have a choice but to get what they can for the 26-year-old scorer.
Finally, there are the Carolina Hurricanes. Last month, there was not hotter name on the rumor mill than forward Jeff Skinner. Approaching the NHL Draft, several insider went so far as to guarantee that he would be traded in the coming days. More than two weeks later, Skinner remains a Hurricane. There is surely a market for Skinner, but the team and new GM Don Waddell have stated that they simply haven’t received an offer yet that they were comfortable with. Carolina clearly values what Skinner brings offensive and the Hurricanes need to be better at scoring next season. Where they have strength and depth is the blue line, yet they have managed to add both Dougie Hamilton and Calvin de Haan this off-season. The team is now overloaded with talented defensemen, especially on the right side, and there is an expectation that veteran leader Justin Faulk is likely going to be odd man out and interest is high in the All-Star.
There are many trade possibilities available, including deals that include more than one of these players, but assuming otherwise: Who is most likely to be the next big name traded this off-season?
Poll: Who Will Be The Centerpiece Of The Next Big Trade?
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Erik Karlsson 41% (871)
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Artemi Panarin 16% (340)
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Max Pacioretty 15% (307)
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Justin Faulk 14% (291)
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Jeff Skinner 8% (171)
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Jason Zucker 4% (79)
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Milan Lucic 2% (50)
Total votes: 2,109
Mobile users, click here to vote.
Metropolitan Notes: Johnson, Myers, Rangers
While defensemen have been receiving big deals in the last week or two, one deal that caught many by surprise was the five-year, $16.25MM deal that Jack Johnson signed with the Pittsburgh Penguins signed on July 1. While Johnson was a highly-touted prospect at one time and developed into a solid NHL veteran, the five-year term seemed like a lot considering that the 31-year-old had lost his job at the end of the season with the Columbus Blue Jackets and instead took up a role as a healthy scratch for the remainder of the season and the playoffs. Johnson finished the year posting
Regardless, Penguins general manager Jim Rutherford had coaches’ Mike Sullivan and Sergei Gonchar look into the three games leading up to Johnson’s benching and they walked away with a positive impression and the team signed the veteran.
The Athletic’s Jesse Marshall (subscription required) took a look at the three games before Johnson was benched and analyzes and breaks down the veteran’s play, citing that his performance was solid, but underwhelming and while the defenseman did have some bad luck at times, what stood out the most was his lack of involvement in the team’s offense as he seems to only have been focusing on his defensive game, which might be exactly what Rutherford and the Penguins want out of Johnson.
- Charlie O’Connor of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that the Philadelphia Flyers’ signing of Christian Folin almost guarantees that defensive prospect Philippe Myers will begin the season with the AHL Lehigh Valley Phantoms. The 21-year-old undrafted free agent had a solid rookie season with the Phantoms last season and was expected to get a “long look” in Flyers training camp in September. However, with six quality NHL established defenseman already on the roster (not counting the injured Samuel Morin), Myers would have to beat one of them out to make the team. General manager Ron Hextall wouldn’t allow Myers to make the team as the team’s seventh defenseman when he could return to Lehigh Valley and get valuable playing experience. So, while many were upset that the team went out and signed Folin, it’s likely that Folin will man that extra defenseman role instead.
- The New York Rangers have been talked about as a potential third-team in any deal involving Erik Karlsson. The team has $23.7MM in cap room to work with and with the team in a quick rebuild, this would be the perfect time to add more picks or prospects to that effort. While the team might be open to acquiring Ryan Callahan from Tampa Bay, The Athletic’s Rick Carpiniello (subscription required) writes that the team will not take on the contract of veteran Bobby Ryan, who still has four years at $7.25MM remaining on his deal. He writes that the Rangers don’t believe they will still be rebuilding in three or four years and being burdened by that deal down the road wouldn’t make any sense.
Atlantic Notes: Bruins, Barkov, Canadiens
While the Boston Bruins added a couple of small, but important pieces to their team this offseason in goaltender Jaroslav Halak and defenseman John Moore, their two biggest Atlantic Division rivals seem to be working at a much bigger scale. The Toronto Maple Leafs have already successfully signed superstar center John Tavares to a long-term deal, while the Tampa Bay Lightning are trying hard to acquire superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson.
Those two moves (although nothing is definite about Karlsson going to Tampa) suggest that maybe Boston isn’t doing enough to improve their own team. The team looks like they lost veteran Rick Nash who is still trying to decide if he intends to return to the NHL and hasn’t added much to their forward core this season. No doubt Boston general manager Don Sweeney is trying to work the trade market in hopes of picking up a Jeff Skinner or Artemi Panarin. However, NBC Sports Joe Haggerty writes that there is nothing wrong if the team can acquire such a player, but the team needs to stay the course and not overreact to the whatever the Maple Leafs or Lightning do.
Haggerty writes the team had a plan at the end of the season and they need to stick to it, which means the team must hold onto their talented young players and not consider moving them for big-name players. The team already had a plan in place in hopes to upgrade its team, using prospects and pieces such as Torey Krug and Anders Bjork. However, the team also needs to keep their elite young players like Charlie McAvoy and Jake Debrusk, because they will need them to stay with the organization for the next decade. The team shouldn’t panic and attempt to grab a big-name player if it will cost them their long-term future.
- The Florida Panthers could be making major shakeups in their lineups next season, according to Matthew DeFranks of the SunSentinel. With the addition of more talent this season, including Mike Hoffman and a host of young talent, coach Bob Boughner has a lot of option for loading up his top line which features star Aleksander Barkov. The talented center has spent much of the last three years playing alongside Jonathan Huberdeau and Evgeni Dadonov, who arrived last season. However, with Hoffman and how well forward Nick Bjugstad played on the top line at times last season, it’s likely Barkov could get all new linemates next season, giving the team more depth on both their second and third lines.
- Brendan Kelly of the Montreal Gazette writes that the Montreal Canadiens have done nothing to get better this offseason. The scribe writes that when you finished the season as the 28th worst team in the league, you need to make big changes. Instead, the team’s biggest trade of Alex Galchenyuk for Max Domi didn’t make the team better, especially since most experts believe that Arizona won the deal, but at best it’s a wash. Then the team’s biggest free agent signing was bringing back Tomas Plekanec, who isn’t the same player he once was and since he spent the majority of the season with Montreal last season, also can’t be anything more than a wash as well. The scribe also points out that if the team was rebuilding then they wouldn’t have tried so hard to go after Tavares or Paul Stastny this offseason. It just looks like another down year in Montreal.
Islanders Must Focus On Moving Forward After Tavares
When the New York Islanders lost John Tavares, the franchise found itself in a worse situation than it had hoped. The team that struggled a year ago on defense and in goal now lost their top scorer and seem to lack identity (except in the front office). The team will likely make Calder Trophy winner Mathew Barzal the new face of the franchise, but without Tavares, there remains a significant hole in their lineup.
While it seems likely Barzal will replace Tavares as the team’s top center, the real question is who will take over as the team’s No. 2 center? One positive note for New York is that the team has almost $20MM in available cap space after Tavares opted to go to Toronto and that’s after the signings of Valtteri Filppula, Leo Komarov, Robin Lehner and Tom Kuhnhackl as well as trading for Matt Martin. Regardless, none of those players are candidates to fill that No. 2 center position. The team does have restricted free agent Brock Nelson as a candidate to fill that role, but his status is up in the air.
The Athletic’s Shayna Goldman (subscription required) suggests if the Islanders want to make some type of impact move to suggest to their fan base that they are ready to move on (because bringing in Filppula, Komorov, Kuhnhackl, Lehner and Martin didn’t accomplish that), they must look to the trade market where there are a number of interesting names that the team could look to acquire, especially at the center position to show they are moving forward.
The top name is interesting enough as Goldman suggests that New York looks at the Ottawa Senators who are looking to cast off players left and right. Already having moved on from Mike Hoffman and in current trade talks with Erik Karlsson, the scribe writes the Islanders could attempt to make an offer to pry centers Matt Duchene or Jean-Gabriel Pageau away.
While Duchene would probably cost the Islanders quite a bit, he could potentially be a reasonable replacement for Tavares. Even though Ottawa gave up a lot to acquire Duchene less than a year ago, they may be ready to move on from him as he will be a free agent after this season and he might not want to return after having to endure the many problems that Ottawa has dealt with in the past year. However in New York, the team could match him with players like Anders Lee, Jordan Eberle or Josh Bailey and get solid production from him and the team would have the cap room to lock him up. The only downside to acquiring Duchene (despite the likely high cost) would be the team would have to sign him as well as Lee and Eberle next season as all three would be unrestricted free agents for the 2019-20 season. Pageau would be a much cheaper option, but lacks much upside if they want to use him as a second-line center.
One other option would be to pry Tyler Johnson away from the Tampa Bay Lightning, especially with the team attempting to clear out cap space to accommodate Karlsson. Johnson would provide significant value as a second-line center as well, but is locked up for six years at $5MM AAV, so they would be able to hold onto him for a long time.
While finding a replacement for Tavares, the team must also attempt to fix their other issues as they’ve done little to address their defense or goaltending. Adding Robin Lehner helps a little, but after the 26-year-old suffered through a disastrous season (3.01 GAA and a .908 save percentage), a Lehner-Thomas Greiss combination doesn’t sound particularly thrilling. The defense also needs help. The team lost Calvin de Haan to Carolina, although they did bring back Thomas Hickey. Although the team has high hopes that Ryan Pulock is ready to move into a top-four role immediately, his defense has always been suspect, so he isn’t likely to improve the Islanders defensive deficiencies. Andrew Gross of Newsday writes that the team should consider looking into acquiring Justin Faulk from the Carolina Hurricanes as he would provide that stability and would look good as the No. 1 piece along with Hickey, Pulock, Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy.
Regardless, with few quality options available to them on the free agent market, the team likely has little choice to make a deal.
Erik Karlsson Trade Talks Have Stalled
Over the past few days, it seemed like a trade for all-world defenseman Erik Karlsson was imminent. Originally, the Dallas Stars were confirmed to be the leader in the race and deep in talks with the Ottawa Senators on a deal for Karlsson. Not long after, it was the Tampa Bay Lightning who had reportedly pulled ahead and had a deal in place with Ottawa that simply required a third team to take on salary. Some even stated that a deal was done pending a trade call, a rumor that obviously lacked reliability. Karlsson remains a Senator and it now seems like a trade is not coming as quickly as expected.
The Athletic’s Joe Smith, who has had his finger on the pulse of the Lightning’s trade talks, is no longer optimistic about a deal getting done. Smith writes that a deal for Karlsson should not be expected any time soon and that nothing is “imminent or close”. Smith admits that a trade could still work out between Ottawa and Tampa, but it’s no longer the foregone conclusion that some had perceived. Meanwhile the Stars are rumored to have fallen out of favor when they refused to include star blue line prospect Miro Heiskanen in a deal for Karlsson. Sportsnet’s John Shannon believes that the Stars still have a chance to land Karlsson, but it seems that Dallas’ chances depend on whether or not they can be flexible with their offer.
The Senators now have a feel for the market and should be able to work out a fair value for Karlsson soon. However, what isn’t so easy is accommodating their insistence on also sending away Bobby Ryan and his $7.25MM cap hit over four years remaining on his contract. Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston reports today that this is the exact reason that finding a trade partner and working out the details of a deal could prove difficult. A three-team deal, like the one contemplated by Ottawa and Tampa Bay, is the most likely outcome for a Karlsson trade, but such deals don’t develop overnight. A trade could still be a ways away – The Athletic’s Chris Stevenson says that the Lightning, Stars, and Vegas Golden Knights all remain in the running – but Stevenson also says that nothing is close as the Senators have “retrenched” and the suitors are playing hardball. It seems that whichever team is able to up the ante on their offer and also be creative in managing several major contracts will be the team to land Karlsson and change the face of their franchise.
Tampa Bay, Ottawa Seeking Third Team To Facilitate Erik Karlsson Trade
6:03 PM: TSN’s Darren Dreger reports (Twitter link) that the Rangers are a team that could potentially be involved as the cap facilitator. Meanwhile, Joe Smith of The Athletic adds (via Twitter) that winger Ryan Callahan is in play for this move. He has a 16-team trade list.
3:28 PM: The rumor mill has been working overtime this morning on a potential Ottawa Senators-Tampa Bay Lightning trade revolving around superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson, and now Travis Yost of TSN tweets that the teams are in the process of trying to find a third party to facilitate the deal, as balancing salaries is a key part of any transaction of this magnitude. Karlsson is expected to only be traded to a team if a contract extension can be worked out, while the Lightning are not expected to be one of the teams willing to eat Bobby Ryan‘s contract. That contract could be exactly why the third team needs to be involved, though Tampa Bay themselves would likely need to move out contracts to fit in a Karlsson extension.
Remember that nothing is final at this point, and since the stakes in any potential blockbuster Karlsson trade are so high things can change at any moment. Just two days ago the Dallas Stars were considered the clear front runners, though now everything seems to be pointing towards the Lightning.
Karlsson is reportedly looking for a contract extension similar to the eight-year, $88MM deal that Drew Doughty recently signed, which would put any team in a financial bind. The Lightning, who know their way around superstar contracts, could potentially fit him in since they’ve inked their other top players to reasonable extensions the last few years. Steven Stamkos ($8.5MM AAV), Victor Hedman ($7.875MM) and Ryan McDonagh ($6.75MM) have all signed relatively team-friendly deals instead of going to free agency, and though the team still needs to sign Nikita Kucherov to a mega-deal, they even have some cap space remaining for the upcoming season.
There are obvious candidates for the Lightning to move to clear more room. Ryan Callahan ($5.8MM), Tyler Johnson ($5.0MM), Alex Killorn ($4.45MM) are all expendable long-term contracts given the emergence of several young players, while Anton Stralman ($4.5MM), Braydon Coburn ($3.7MM) and Dan Girardi ($3.0MM) are defensemen on expiring contracts who could be moved out given Karlsson’s impact on the blue line. The superstar defenseman only costs $6.5MM this season, meaning jettisoning just one of the above players would give the team enough cap space to acquire him.
Remember that teams during the offseason can go up to 10%, or $7.95MM, over the salary cap ceiling but must be compliant again by the beginning of the season. Even if Tampa Bay doesn’t find a taker for one of their contracts, they could still potentially acquire Karlsson only to find a way to get under the cap ceiling by the beginning of the year.
Poll: Where Will Erik Karlsson Play In 2018-19?
Since John Tavares decided on the Toronto Maple Leafs as his destination of choice in free agency, all eyes have turned to another Ontario-based superstar who might be changing locales in short order. Erik Karlsson has been given the opportunity to negotiate extensions with potential acquiring teams, and seems destined to be moved at some point in the next few days or weeks. The Ottawa Senators captain has one year left on his current contract, and was reportedly offered an eight-year, $80MM extension by the team. That number comes in slightly below the contract given to Drew Doughty (eight years, $88MM) which is seen by many as the measuring stick for Karlsson’s next deal.
Recently it was reported that the Dallas Stars had the inside track on any Karlsson trade, and as recently as a few hours ago Chris Stevenson of The Athletic tweeted that talks are ongoing between the two teams. The Stars have plenty of young talent, including Finnish defensemen Julis Honka and Miro Heiskanen, and are looking to compete while Jamie Benn, John Klingberg and Tyler Seguin are still in their prime. A Karlsson deal would make them immediate contenders, though it would obviously cost a ton in assets and salary.
The Tampa Bay Lightning, Vegas Golden Knights, New York Islanders and even Columbus Blue Jackets have been mentioned among other teams as potential destinations, and it is not clear at this point who will win out and land the two-time Norris Trophy winner. It’s not even guaranteed that Karlsson will move on from Ottawa, which he’s called his home for many years and could potentially still increase their offer to retain him should the offered packages not live up to their expectations.
Where do you think Karlsson will start the 2018-19 season? Vote below and make sure to leave your thoughts in the comment section.
Which team will Erik Karlsson play for at the start of the 2018-19 season?
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Vegas Golden Knights 27% (773)
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Dallas Stars 23% (644)
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Other (leave in comments) 19% (549)
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Ottawa Senators 10% (289)
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New York Islanders 10% (286)
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Tampa Bay Lightning 10% (279)
Total votes: 2,820
[Mobile users click here to vote!]
Dallas Stars Leading Chase For Erik Karlsson
After the Ottawa Senators offered superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson a contract that was not well-received, the team gave interested competitors the permission to speak to him about contract terms. NBC Sports’ Kathryn Tappen reported that the Senators’ offer was for eight years at $10MM per season, an amazing amount of money to a layperson but truthfully an insult to Karlsson in light of recent contracts signed by Drew Doughty and John Tavares. As such, Tappen and others have added that other teams are now in hot pursuit and serious trade talks are underway.
As of this evening, the leader in those talks are the Dallas Stars. The Athletic’s Chris Stevenson has heard from a source in the NHL that the Stars have emerged as a front runner for Karlsson and that Dallas and Ottawa are deep in talks about a trade that would include the Norris Trophy winner but not overpaid forward Bobby Ryan, a major hindrance in many teams’ acquisition plans. Stevenson is based in Ottawa and is allegedly close to the Senators and his The Athletic colleague in Dallas, Sean Shapiro, says that he has also heard that the Stars are legitimately interested and that a hypothetical deal is a real possibility.
Immediately, the question is what the potential return for the Senators could be that would both pry Karlsson out of Ottawa but also keep Ryan there. Shapiro believes that any deal for Karlsson would have to include young defenseman Julius Honka, while Ottawa may actually prefer a more established name like Esa Lindell. It would also make sense for the Sens to target the Stars top blue line prospect, 2017 third overall pick Miro Heiskanen. Others who could be part of the package include young two-way centers Radek Faksa or Devin Shore, recently re-acquired winger Valeri Nichushkin, and project forward Riley Tufte. While only time will tell if a trade is completed and what the pieces will be, this is the first time that any specific team has been confirmed to be in real trade talks for Karlsson and it now seems like only a matter of time before the all-word defender is traded, to Dallas or elsewhere.
Snapshots: Karlsson, Voynov, Blidh, Varady
Although the Senators have offered defenseman Erik Karlsson a contract extension as they promised they would, it doesn’t appear like it was well-received. Larry Brooks of the New York Post reports (Twitter link) that Ottawa has given teams interested in acquiring him permission to discuss a contract extension with the 28-year-old.
Brooks adds that Karlsson is seeking the same contract that Kings blueliner Drew Doughty received at eight years and $88MM. That appears to be too rich for the Senators and accordingly, it appears that the odds of him playing elsewhere next season have gone up.
More from around the league:
- Slava Voynov’s path back to the NHL took a step forward today as he was granted an expungement of his domestic abuse conviction, reports Curtis Zupke of the LA Times. This paves the way for him to seek a hearing with Commissioner Gary Bettman about being reinstated into the league. The Kings still hold Voynov’s rights as he sits on the voluntary retired list following his original contract being terminated. While all signs point to Los Angeles not wanting to bring him back, they would be allowed to trade his rights if and when he is reinstated.
- The Bruins have re-signed winger Anton Blidh to a one-year, two-way contract, reports TVA Sports’ Renaud Lavoie (Twitter link). The deal is worth the league minimum $650K at the NHL level. The 23-year-old suited up once with Boston last season but spent the majority of the year in the minors where he collected 11 goals and 15 assists in 71 games.
- The Coyotes have filled their head coaching vacancy at the AHL level. The team announced that they have appointed Jay Varady as the new bench boss of the Tucson Roadrunners. He spent last season as the head coach of OHL Kingston while he had previously filled that same role with Sioux City of the USHL. Varady takes the place of Mike Van Ryn, who was named an assistant coach with St. Louis back in May.
Ottawa Offers Erik Karlsson Contract Extension
The Ottawa Senators kept to their word Sunday as the team offered superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson a contract extension, according to NHL.com’s David Satriano. Terms of the extension offer were not disclosed. Despite the rumors of unhappiness with the ownership and his not willing to accept a “hometown” discount that has led to quite a bit of trade speculation over the past six months, general manager Pierre Dorion said the team had to make one final effort to keep Karlsson in the fold.
“We don’t really want to talk about roster players, contract negotiations, trades, all these things, but I think we owe it to our fans and we made a promise at the town hall that we would make a contract offer to Erik Karlsson and we’ve done so,” Dorion said Sunday.
Karlsson is in the last year of a seven-year, $45.5MM deal that he signed in 2012, which looks like a bargain as his AAV sits at just $6.5MM. However, with the sudden increase in salaries for star defenseman having increased, it’s likely that a new Karlsson deal will break the bank. Several defenseman have cashed in over the past few days, including Drew Doughty (eight years, $88MM, $11MM AAV), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (eight years, $66MM, $8.25MM AAV) and John Carlson (eight years, $64MM, $8MM AAV).
With increased trade rumors over the past week, there still hasn’t been a trade yet. The team has made it clear to teams that they are asking for a big return for their superstar center and have made it even more challenging for teams as they want the team also to take on the contract of Bobby Ryan, which still has four year left at $7.25MM. The Vegas Golden Knights have been the most talked about team since the trade deadline to get a deal done and they still could, but nothing has materialized yet. The Senators still have hope that Karlsson will sign an extension.
“I think Erik wants to be a Senator for life,” Dorion said then. “I don’t want to speak for him, I’ll let him speak for himself. We’ll see what the next few months bring, but if Erik Karlsson is here on July 1, we will be making him a contract offer.”