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RFAs Looking For Playoff Payouts

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Every post-season, players look to make their mark. Relative unknowns break onto the scene, rookies steal the show, and goaltenders go from backup to fan-embraced starter. Contracts are always in the back of management’s thinking, however, and a strong post-season showing for a player can cost a team in dollars. Here are some restricted free agents who could stand to earn a more lucrative deal depending on how far their teams go and how bright they shine individually.

 

Ryan Johansen – NSH

Johansen will look to get a slight raise from his current $4.0 MM cap hit. A large determinant for whether he will see a take-home pay ($6.0 MM) decrease or not will be his performance in these playoffs. Johansen’s past two seasons have been fruitful in terms of points, 60 in 15-16 and 61 in 16-17, but not quite the numbers of the marquee offensive star Nashville fans were hoping for. This is a player who scored 33 goals in the 13-14 season, and was projected to consistently flirt with 80 points. Johansen’s imposing frame and play-style is a challenge for opposing centers, and he has undeniably improved his defensive prowess. Johansen only potted 14 goals this year, but it is fair to say his game has become more well-rounded. His Corsi For % took a massive hop from last season, taking a solid 52.3% to a remarkable 55.9% this past outing. Considering his quality of competition and his ability to provide solid two-way play, Johansen will be looking to prove his worth this post-season with a deep post-season run with the Predators.

Evgeny Kuznetsov – WAS

Washington’s Kuznetsov should definitely be considered part of the team’s core. At 24 years old, the center has already tallied a 77 point season and had a 5-goal playoff run. His inconsistency in terms of production could hinder his payday, however, as he struggled to regain his footing in what was essentially his third full season. He returned to form on the backend of the season, totaling a respectable if unremarkable 59 points. The flashy forward already has 3 points through 5 games against Toronto,  and a strong playoff showing can only help his position. With Nicklas Backstrom taking first-line duties and the red-hot Justin Williams on his wing, Kuznetsov could easily find himself in the spotlight again. Whether his next contract is a bridge deal at a lower cost or a long-term lock-down, Kuznetsov is certain to see a raise from his measly $3 MM.

Leon Draisaitl – EDM

Anyone who has watched Edmonton this season in hopes of catching a glimpse of Connor McDavid has undoubtedly been shocked and/or awed by the dominance of his 21 year-old linemate Draisaitl. Draisaitl’s vision with the puck and dogged determination make him a beautiful sight to behold. He accumulated an absurd 77 points this season, 29 goals and 48 assists, in what was only his second full season. The forward is already flirting with a point per game, and has shown remarkable chemistry with the generational talent McDavid. His flexibility in being able to shift from center to wing only makes him that much more valuable to the franchise. The Oilers will obviously pay whatever price is needed to lock up Draisaitl long-term, but the deeper the team goes, the better his bargaining position. He’s obviously going to get a fair deal more than his current $3.4 MM, likely upwards of $6 MM.

Conor Sheary – PIT

Conor Sheary had an incredible breakout season that practically no one, even Penguins fans, expected. On Sidney Crosby’s wing, the short-statured winger made himself absolutely invaluable. The chemistry the two showed together hadn’t really been seen since the likes of Hossa in Pittsburgh’s Finals run of 2007-08. Sheary is in a bit of a bind, however, as Jake Guentzel has shown equal or even greater chemistry with the league’s marquee center since being placed on the top line. Sheary struggled to find his groove in the first round series, even being demoted to the third line in favor of Patric Hornqvist. Sheary is a good bet to string together solid showings in the next round, but if he does not, perhaps it impacts his case for a long-term contract. Regardless, Sheary will look to eat up a large portion of the money allocated this offseason in Pittsburgh, as his current $0.925 MM cap hit is one of the best bargains in the league. His 53 points in 61 games placed him at 23rd in the league in points per game, ahead of the likes of Phil Kessel and John Tavares.

Mika Zibanejad – NYR

The Rangers organization loves this player, and it is easy to see why. His point totals had steadily increased the past three seasons, and he was looking to do so again if he did not miss so many games to injury. Zibanejad is a strong center who takes pride in his two-way ability. He has a solid shot, although he might be criticized for under-utlizing it, and is often deployed against opposing team’s top players. Considering that New York gave up the solid veteran Derick Brassard to acquire his skillset, they are nearly certain to double down on Zibanejad’s continued improvement. His role will only expand as the leadership of the team ages and he will be expected to fill some of the leadership void left behind. Zibanejad is up for a new contract, and will look for a sizable raise over his current $2.625 MM. There is perhaps still untapped offensive potential left in Zibanejad’s game, but will he display it in these playoffs? He has already potted 4 points in 6 games in the team’s successful series against Montreal, including an overtime winner.

Conor Sheary, Free Agency And Leverage

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When Conor Sheary began the season he was entering the second and final year of his entry-level contract, and coming off a Stanley Cup victory and a strong playoff performance. He’d duplicated his regular season point total in the postseason with 10 points and looked like a solid depth player for a team looking to contend once again. Conor Sheary Sidney Crosby

He’d spent time with Sidney Crosby in the playoffs and had great results, so the Penguins decided to try it again. What has happened this year has been magic. Sheary has blossomed into an exceptional offensive player alongside Crosby, scoring 53 points in 60 games, a rate that betters even his strong numbers at the University of Massachusetts and the AHL.

Heading into the summer, Sheary is a restricted free agent for the first time in his career and arbitration eligible. He’ll be looking for a big raise after such a successful season, and the Penguins will have to decide if he’s a long-term piece. Many would point to Crosby’s presence and think that Sheary wouldn’t have much leverage, that the diminutive winger would have trouble replicating his numbers without one of the game’s premiere centers beside him. As usual, it’s not that simple.

While Sheary is obviously helped a tremendous amount by Crosby’s presence, it works both ways. Without delving too far into the analytics world, it’s clear that Sheary has an effect on the duo’s dominance. Since the beginning of 2015 without Sheary (via Corsica), Crosby has a 53 CF% a simple metric of shots attempted and allowed during a player’s time on the ice. Sheary, in a small sample without Crosby, has the same number. But together the pair skyrocket up to a 56 CF%, showing how well their games mesh with each other. Crosby has found success like that with other players throughout his career, but there have also been several excellent players who just “don’t mesh” with his style and can’t play alongside him.

So then, when the two sides enter the negotiating room this summer it is not just the Penguins acting from a position of leverage. His presence on Crosby’s wing makes their star player even better than he already was, and don’t think the Sheary camp doesn’t know it. Even with just a single season of success, and a checkered history when it comes to development and performance, Sheary should be able to use his chemistry with one of the league’s top players and turn it into a long-term deal. After all, there is no guarantee anyone else could have the same effect.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Injury Notes: Stamkos, Penguins, Andersen

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Steven Stamkos was present at practice in full today, taking line rushes and participating in powerplay drills. He’s now “day-to-day” according to Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times, and will continue to be evaluated daily. He won’t play tomorrow against Detroit, but could return soon for the chance to help Tampa Bay into the playoffs.

Stamkos has been out since November and has always put a return this season as a goal in his rehab. Despite trading away two centers at the deadline and three others dealing with various injuries, the team now finds themselves just three points out of a playoff spot with a game in hand over the Boston Bruins. Those two teams will meet on Tuesday in what could be the deciding game for both their playoff lives.

  • The Pittsburgh Penguins are finally getting healthier, with Conor Sheary and Chad Ruhwedel both game-time decisions for tonight according to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. While Jake Guentzel and Ron Hainsey won’t be available, both took the ice wearing normal jerseys today for the Penguins option skate. The Penguins have lost three games in a row and are falling out of President’s Trophy contention, and with it an “easier’ matchup in the first round. As things stand currently, they’d take on the Columbus Blue Jackets in the first round.
  • After missing just one game, Frederik Andersen may be back in the Toronto Maple Leafs net sooner than later. Kristen Shilton of TSN reports that the goaltender said he feels ready to go for the team tomorrow, but he and the medical staff will talk more after landing in Nashville for their game tomorrow night. Andersen was taken out with a possible concussion from Saturday’s game in Buffalo, but returned to the ice the next day without any symptoms.

Snapshots: Team USA, Patrick, Penguins

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After the US National Women’s team announced their boycott of the upcoming World Championships two weeks ago, there has been a war of words between the two sides and an outpouring of support from other professional leagues and players around the world. Now, with the tournament just a few days from starting—games are set to begin on Friday in Plymouth with Team USA facing off against Canada—there seems to be somewhat of an agreement in place.

Multiple reports including one from Frank Seravalli of TSN have the two sides very close to a deal being ratified today on equitable pay going forward. This would send the team to the tournament and bring closure to what has been a contentious period in women’s hockey. This comes on the heels of a report that the men’s team may also boycott if USA Hockey were to allow replacement players into the tournament in the women’s stead.

  • Nolan Patrick again won’t play for the Brandon Wheat Kings in their game three matchup against the Medicine Hat Tigers tonight. According to Mike Morreale of NHL.com, he remains day-to-day for the Wheat Kings with a lower-body injury. The Tigers are up 2-0 in the series, and if Patrick doesn’t return soon he might not get a chance to compete in the playoffs at all this year. That would be a disappointing end to what has been a terrible draft year for the projected number one pick. It would give Nico Hischier and the Halifax Mooseheads—who are tied 1-1 in their playoff series—even more chances to prove why he should be considered for the top selection in this summer’s draft.
  • The Pittsburgh Penguins had a fairly production practice this morning, as according to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette they had Jake Guentzel, Ron Hainsey and Conor Sheary all on the ice. While Guentzel and Hainsey were both in non-contact jerseys, it is still a step forward as they try to get healthy for the playoffs. Coach Mike Sullivan told Mackey that Evgeni Malkin skated on his own before practice, and is “hopeful” to get him back soon.

Snapshots: Penguins Injuries, Couture, Haley

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Penguins center Evgeni Malkin did not skate on Sunday as he continues to recover from a shoulder injury.  Head coach Mike Sullivan noted to Jonathan Bombulie of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that the off day was a scheduled one and not a setback in the recovery process.  Malkin has missed the last six games as a result of the injury and there remains no timetable for his return.

While Malkin (along with winger Carl Hagelin who has a lower body issue) didn’t skate, several other injured Pittsburgh players took to the ice.  Defensemen Trevor Daley (knee), Ron Hainsey, Kris Letang (both upper body injuries), and Olli Maatta along with winger Jake Guentzel (concussion) all took to the ice although they did so before the team took to the ice to prepare for tonight’s game against the Flyers.

Winger Scott Wilson returned to the lineup for the Penguins after missing Friday’s game with an undisclosed issue.  However, the team lost winger Conor Sheary midway through the first period after he blocked a shot with his hand and he did not return.  Following the game, Sullivan told reporters, including Dave Molinari of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link), that Sheary is day-to-day.

Other news from around the NHL:

  • Sharks winger Logan Couture was taken to hospital on Saturday after taking a puck to the mouth against the Predators. CSN Bay Area’s Kevin Kurz reports that Couture was able to travel home with the team.  However, a source tells Kurz that the injury is a bad one which suggests he’s likely to miss some time.  The injury comes at a tough time with the playoffs fast approaching and the team struggling considerably at the moment having lost six straight games.  On the season, Couture sits third in team scoring with 25 goals and 27 assists in 73 contests.  An update on his condition is expected on Monday.
  • Still with the Sharks, winger Micheal Haley will have a phone hearing on Monday regarding an incident against the Predators, the NHL’s Department of Player Safety announced (Twitter link). Haley was assessed a match penalty on the play, which occurred with just over seven minutes remaining in the third period.  Haley has played himself into a mostly regular role with the Sharks this season, picking up a career best 11 points and 110 penalty minutes (fifth league-wide) in 54 games.  San Jose next plays on Tuesday so a decision will have to be made whether or not to uphold or rescind the match penalty by then.

Metro Notes: Blue Jackets, Penguins, Rowney

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The Columbus Blue Jackets surprisingly strong season put them in the rare position of deadline buyer earlier this month as the team added forward Lauri Korpikoski and blue liner Kyle Quincey, shoring up the club’s depth down the stretch. This newfound depth, while a good thing, has nonetheless forced head coach John Tortorella into making some tough lineup decisions now that the Jackets are again healthy, writes Aaron Portzline of The Columbus Dispatch. Korpikoski, acquired from Dallas for young defenseman Dillon Heatherington, was a recent casualty of that depth, as he was made a healthy scratch for the team’s 2 – 1 win over Florida Thursday night.

“I’ll continue to make my call during the game as far as who’s going and who’s not,” Tortorella said. “That will determine ice time. And then from game to game we will make a determination as to who will play. I don’t know what else to say about it, except it’s a good problem to have when you starting getting your players back healthy.”

Given the situation, it might make sense for Tortorella to take the opportunity to rest some of his veterans down the stretch but according to Portzline, that isn’t something the veteran bench boss has “even considered.” Instead, Torts will let it ride with 14 healthy forwards and use individual player performances dictate who plays and who doesn’t.

Elsewhere in the Metro Division:

  • Five teams – Boston, Montreal, Florida, the New York Islanders and St. Louis – have made changes behind the bench at some point during the 2016-17 season and several Penguins players feel it’s in direct correlation to the success Pittsburgh experienced last year after replacing Mike Johnston with Mike Sullivan. But as Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes, in-season coaching changes are nothing new in the NHL. As Mackey adds, there have been 39 bench bosses replaced during the season since the 2006-07 campaign; a figure which is tops among the four major North American sports. While firing the head coach is not a recent trend in the league, it should be noted that four of the five clubs who have done so in 2016-17 are currently in contention for a playoff spot, suggesting the changes have in fact benefited the teams that made them.
  • In a separate piece for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Mackey writes about how the Penguins depth has helped the team survive a bevy of injuries to key regulars. At some point this season, Pittsburgh has been without the services of Kris Letang, Trevor Daley, Evgeni Malkin, Patric Hornqvist and Carl Hagelin, among others for significant stretches but the Penguins have kept right on rolling. But GM Jim Rutherford, never one to shy away from making a deal to help his club, added blue liners Ron Hainsey and Mark Streit to bolster the defense corps while the club has relied primarily on AHL call-ups to fortify the forward ranks. One veteran minor leaguer, 27-year-old Carter Rowney, has filled in admirably when called upon this season. He tallied his first NHL goal and multi-point game in Pittsburgh’s victory over New Jersey last night. Last season, the Penguins received strong efforts from Tom Kuhnhackl, Bryan Rust and Conor Sheary, all of whom began the year in the minors, on their way to a Stanley Cup championship. It’s questionable whether Rowney will have that same level of impact on Pittsburgh’s fortunes this postseason but in a short sample he has proven he can at least serve as much needed depth.

 

Pittsburgh Penguins Recall Josh Archibald From AHL

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The Pittsburgh Penguins may have another young winger ready to make an impact for them down the stretch. Today they called up Josh Archibald from the AHL prior to their game against the Calgary Flames tonight. The Penguins are on a five game winning streak and just a point behind the Metropolitan-leading Washington Capitals for first place in the entire NHL.

Archibald is a 24-year old winger who was selected in the sixth round of the 2011 draft. After completing—and dominating in—three seasons at the University of Nebraska-Omaha, Archibald has steadily climbed through the ranks of the Penguins’ minor league system. Earlier this year he played two games for Pittsburgh, scoring two goals in a February 11th overtime loss against Arizona. Amazingly, he has scored on each of the only two shots he’s taken during his three game NHL career.

As Pittsburgh has shown over the years with the emergence of Bryan Rust and Conor Sheary, the team isn’t afraid to put young players into key roles during a playoff stretch. After seasoning them at the AHL level, they can find ways to let them impact the game without exposing their inexperience. While Archibald isn’t guaranteed to play that role for the Penguins this season, his ability to penalty kill and play a solid defensive game may lend itself to some fourth-line minutes down the stretch and into the postseason.

Snapshots: Schultz, Fines, Zajac

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When Justin Schultz came out of the University of Wisconsin to sign with the Edmonton Oilers, it started out well. With 48 points in 34 AHL contests during the lockout, it did look like he had Norris-trophy potential, as then-GM Craig MacTavish said later. As Mark Spector of Sportsnet writes, it started to erode for Schultz soon after. The defenseman now sits among the leaders in points in the league from defensemen, and has been a perfect fit in Pittsburgh this season.

While Spector goes through the history of his demise in Edmonton, it will be interesting to follow his contract negotiation this summer. At just $1.4MM this season, Schultz is due for a huge raise as he becomes a restricted free agent on July 1st. At 26 years old, the Penguins will be buying out almost entirely UFA years if they extend him long-term, meaning the AAV will be substantial. Pittsburgh will have an interesting off season, with Schultz, Conor Sheary, Brian Dumoulin and Derrick Pouliot all RFAs, and several key players set to hit the open market. While Schultz will likely be priority #1, it will be a tough negotiation.

  • The NHL has handed down $2000 embellishment fines to both Jake Muzzin and Johnny Gaudreau for separate incidents. The league gives out a warning on the first instance, meaning that Muzzin and Gaudreau have been told already to stop diving. Muzzin in particular was given his warning after an October 14th game against Philadelphia, and this fine comes from an incident against Vancouver last weekend. Subsequent fines will increase to a maximum of $5000, but will also carry a financial penalty for the head coach should the player receive five citations.
  • Travis Zajac will miss the New Jersey Devils next game as he left the team today to return home. His wife is expecting their third child any day now. With the Devils out of a playoff race and stuck at the bottom of the standings, Zajac likely won’t be rushed back into the lineup. Their quest now for the best draft pick available is more important than winning games.

Snapshots: Guentzel, Bindulis, Rangers

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The Pittsburgh Penguins, like any other champion of the salary-cap era, have found worthwhile contributions from previously unheralded sources. Last year saw the playoff breakout of Bryan Rust and Conor Sheary, while this year Justin Schultz has turned into the defenseman that everyone had hoped for in Edmonton. As Dave Holcomb of FanRag Sports details, it may be Jake Guentzel that is the next breakout star for a team that has so many.

Guentzel has seen his ice time skyrocket since his latest call up, playing as much as 19:52 in a regulation loss on the 28th. He’s become a relied-upon member of the Penguins top-9 and will be needed past this year’s playoffs. With Sheary and Schultz up for new contracts as restricted free agents this summer and Nick Bonino hitting the open market, the team will have to make some tough decisions on the future construction of their lineup around the $25MM trio of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel. Having a cost-controlled option like Guentzel that can slot in with any of the three is a huge plus for the Penguins and their long-term future.

  • Mark Divver of the Providence Journal reports that Kristofers Bindulis is the latest college free agent to watch. Several teams are after the Lake Superior State defenseman after his solid debut in the WCHA. The Lakers are having a rough season, but Bindulis has turned heads with 12 points in 28 games. Rail-thin in his draft year, Bindulis is now listed at 6’3″, 180-lbs and likely still able to fill out into his large frame. Watch for Vegas to start their roster off with some college free agents, and perhaps Bindulis is on their minds.
  • The New York Rangers better hope they don’t finish fourth in the Metropolitan Division. After getting pummeled by the Montreal Canadiens 4-1 last night and causing Alain Vigneault to become more angry than he has all season (according to Brett Cyrgalis of the NY Post), the team is now just 5-4-1 in their last 10 and 0-3 against the Habs this season. With the first wildcard sport set to face the Atlantic Division winner, the Rangers would be up against the Canadiens right away and would need to turn that record around fast.

Conor Sheary To Miss Up To Six Weeks With Upper-Body Injury

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The Pittsburgh Penguins will be without Conor Sheary, one of their most productive forwards and Sidney Crosby’s wing man, from four-to-six weeks, according to Jonathan Bombulie of the Tribune-Review. Pittsburgh bench boss Mike Sullivan made the announcement following the team’s practice today. It’s unclear when exactly Sheary suffered the injury, but presumably it occurred during Pittsburgh’s 4 – 2 win over Nashville last night.

Sheary, who was originally signed by the Penguins as an undrafted free agent, has developed into a solid winger and currently ranks third on the team in goals with 17. In 42 games this season, the 24-year-old winger has totaled 35 points and posted a plus/minus rating of plus-18.

He made a name for himself after being called up to the team around mid-season last year, providing speed and key goals down the stretch and into the playoffs for Pittsburgh. In 44 appearances in 2015-16, Sheary potted seven goals and 10 points. He added another 10 points in 23 playoff contests, helping the Penguins to a Stanley Cup championship.

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