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Bob McKenzie

NHL Sets Salary Cap at $81.5MM for 2019-20

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The NHL and NHLPA have made it official, as TSN’s Bob McKenzie reports that the NHL salary cap for 2019-20 will be $81.5MM, as many had recently projected with the salary floor being set at $60.2MM.

That isn’t good news for teams that are at or near the cap as many teams had hoped that the cap might be closer to $83MM like it was projected several weeks ago. However, recently rumors had been rumbling that the number would be closer to $82MM and potentially as low as $81.5MM, which is what it ended up being, which is a worst-case scenario for teams hoping for that extra space to maneuver.

That could prompt more teams that need to open up cap space to make cost-cutting moves. The league has seen some of that already today with the Nashville Predators unloading the $9MM contract of defenseman P.K. Subban in order to free up space to extend defenseman Roman Josi and potentially sign a free-agent center such as Matt Duchene in the coming week. The Toronto Maple Leafs sent a future first-rounder to Carolina also today in order to unload the final year of Patrick Marleau and his $6.25MM contract. The Tampa Bay Lightning also unloaded J.T. Miller’s $5.25MM contract that still has four more years on it for a future first-rounder as well. Other teams that are in trouble and could be making similar cap-saving moves include the Vegas Golden Knights, San Jose Sharks, Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals.

The announcement, however, could be big news for teams with plenty of cap space to sell. The Devils acquired a top-four defenseman for a very little return, while Vancouver added a top-six forward in Miller. There are six teams underneath the ceiling of $60.2MM, including the Philadelphia Flyers, Winnipeg Jets, New Jersey Devils, Columbus Blue Jackets, Ottawa Senators and the Colorado Avalanche. Several of those team have significant free agents to sign, however, including Winnipeg, Philadelphia and Colorado, but there are many teams that could take advantage, now more than ever, of some of the teams who have already capped themselves out. In fact, Columbus general manager Jarmo Kekalainen was thrilled at the cap number.

“It doesn’t affect us. I like it,” Kekalainen said (via NHL.com’s Dan Rosen). “It’s going to squeeze some teams some more. … They’re going to have to solve their problems and maybe we can be a solution.”

Vancouver Canucks Acquire Tampa Bay’s J.T. Miller

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With salary dumps starting off the day after both Patrick Marleau and P.K. Subban were traded earlier, TSN’s Bob McKenzie reports that the Vancouver Canucks are closing in on a deal to acquire forward J.T. Miller and the four years remaining at $5.25MM from the Tampa Bay Lightning. Vancouver trades goaltender Marek Mazanec, a 2019 third-round pick (goaltender Hugo Alnefelt) and a conditional first-round pick in 2020, reports NHL.com’s Dan Rosen. If the Canucks do not make the playoffs, the 2020 first-rounder will be conveyed in 2021.

With plenty of salary cap issues, the Tampa Bay Lightning had to move out some salary, especially with restricted Brayden Point expected to get a big raise this summer. Miller seemed to make the most sense as the forward struggled last season in his first full year with the Lightning. After posting more than 20 goals for three straight years, Miller saw his goal-scoring numbers drop to just 13 last season. With a no-trade clause kicking in on July 1, the team had to make a move sooner rather than later.

For Vancouver, Miller should provide some much needed offense as Miller can play all three positions and still is just 26 years old and should find a role somewhere in the team’s top six. If he continues to struggle like he did last year, he could always take over the third-line center duties. The Canucks have the cap space to take in the deal, but Miller’s four year’s at $5.25MM is pretty reasonable had the team tried to land a player of Miller’s success on the free-agent market.

It wasn’t a long stay for Miller, who the team acquired as part of the Ryan McDonagh trade back at the trade deadline in 2018. He looked sharp for the team’s stretch run that year, tallying 10 goals and 18 points in 19 games. The team then signed him to a five-year, $26.25MM contract last offseason, but now decided to move on from him. The team got solid value for him as they expect to get either the team’s 2020 first-rounder (assuming the Canucks make the playoffs) or the team’s 2021 first-rounder. They also added a third-round pick in this year’s draft, while also getting Mazanec. While it looks like it would fill their hole in the net in Syracuse, the team only picked up Mazanec’s rights as he has already signed a contract in the Czech League for two years. The team already lost both of Syracuse’s goaltenders from last year as Eddie Pasquale has already signed with Barys Nur-Sultan in the KHL, while they traded Connor Ingram to Tampa Bay for a future seventh-round pick.

P.K. Subban’s Name “Floating Around” As Nashville Tries To Clear Salary

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The Nashville Predators have been linked to free agent Matt Duchene and need to sign an extension with captain Roman Josi, but they’ll have to clear some cap space to accomplish either one. That’s drawn plenty of speculation about who the team could move out this summer, with Kyle Turris’ name leading the way after a disappointing season. Bob McKenzie of TSN however tweets that’s not the only Predator out there, as he’s heard P.K. Subban’s name “floating around” as well. McKenzie makes sure to clarify that there is no guarantee of a Subban trade, and that makes sense given the complexity of any deal for the star defenseman.

Subban, 30, is one of the league’s highest paid defenseman and comes with a $9MM cap hit for the next three seasons. That includes $10MM in actual salary this year, a contract that many teams wouldn’t be able to afford given the cap struggles throughout the league. Still, Subban was traded once before while carrying that cap hit even when the ceiling was lower, and his offensive upside is still likely an attractive proposition for teams looking to contend. Though he played just 63 games for the Predators in 2018-19, the Norris-winning defenseman recorded 31 points and averaged close to 23 minutes a night. Subban has been criticized his whole career for playing dangerously, but still drives possession at an elite rate and can be a game-changing force on the right side.

It is important to note that though Subban once held a full no-movement clause, the Predators did not honor it after he waived it to come to Nashville in the first place. That means the veteran has zero trade protection in his contract at all and would have to accept a deal anywhere in the league. The Predators currently project to have around $6MM in cap space for this summer, but will need to open more room if they plan on being big spenders in free agency.

GM David Poile has never shied away from making big trades, but finalizing a deal including Subban does seem difficult given the league has not officially decided on the salary cap ceiling for next season. Though front offices around the league are generally aware of where it might land, it is not expected to be finalized until Saturday, during the second day of the draft. Acquiring a contract like Subban’s would require careful financial consideration for most teams, perhaps limiting the chance of something going down on day one.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Flyers Sign Kevin Hayes To Long-Term Contract

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June 19: The contract has been officially announced by the Flyers, matching the financial details originally reported. GM Chuck Fletcher released this statement:

We are very happy to sign Kevin to a long term contract. He plays a smart, two-way game and is just entering the prime of his career. Kevin will add size and skill to our line-up.

The deal will include a no-movement clause for the first three years and a 12-team no-trade clause the remaining four.

Per CapFriendly, the contract breaks down as follows:

2019-20: $4MM base salary, $5MM signing bonus
2020-21: $3.75MM base salary, $3.75MM signing bonus
2021-22: $9MM base salary
2022-23: $3.75MM base salary, $3.75MM signing bonus
2023-24: $6.5MM base salary
2024-25: $4MM base salary, $1.25MM signing bonus
2025-26: $4MM base salary, $1.25MM signing bonus

June 18: As soon as the Philadelphia Flyers acquired Kevin Hayes’ negotiating rights from the Winnipeg Jets, they became the favorites to sign the two-way center. However, talks had not been going as expected until a recent report that progress was finally being made toward a contract resolution. Now, TSN’s Bob McKenzie reports that a deal is imminent. He expects the contract to be worth $50MM over seven years.

Hayes’ reported $7.14MM AAV, a raise of more than $2MM over his latest contract, puts him in the top 20 among NHL centers and continues an off-season that appears to be a players’ market. For a player with just five seasons of pro experience who has averaged less than 20 goals and 50 points per year, this may seem like a high cap number. While centers are paid a premium and Hayes’ defensive effectiveness needs to be taken into account, it is likely that some will be skeptical of this deal. Nevertheless, the Flyers did what they needed to to lock up a top young free agent and fill a major need down the middle. Now the team must hope that Hayes can continue on his upward trajectory set by a career-high 55 points this past season.

Hayes joins Erik Karlsson and Jeff Skinner as top impending free agents that have now re-signed for more than many expected. In comparison, this contract makes the New York Islanders’ extensions of Brock Nelson and Jordan Eberle look very team-friendly, but may make extending Anders Lee more difficult. Besides Hayes, the major beneficiary of this contract is Matt Duchene, who is considered the top free agent center and has a strong argument to make substantially more than Hayes. Lee can also fairly make that case. Marcus Johansson and Gustav Nyquist additionally stand to benefit, as they have similar per-game numbers to Hayes, albeit are older and not natural centers.

Hayes now joins fellow new Flyers Justin Braun and Matt Niskanen on a re-tooled roster that has undoubtedly gained the imprint of new GM Chuck Fletcher. And it’s only June. Where else Philadelphia goes this summer remains to be seen, but the team will certainly have a different look when they take the ice next season.

Snapshots: Salary Cap, Clarkson, Vanek

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For quite some time the prevailing thought has been that the 2019-20 salary cap ceiling would climb to $83MM, giving teams a little more room to operate next season after the success of the Vegas Golden Knights and rising league revenues. That might not be the case however, as Bob McKenzie of TSN has spoken to several teams that believe it may come in under $82MM when the NHL and NHLPA come to an agreement later this week.

That’s a very small increase, but with CBA negotiations just around the corner may end up being all that is available to teams this time around. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet posits a theory that the league and union will keep the salary cap increases small for the next two years until the next television contract rolls in. The Vegas Golden Knights are one of the teams that will feel the squeeze most, as they already project to have more than $83MM committed to next season, without even signing William Karlsson or Nikita Gusev.

  • One way the Golden Knights could clear some room is by using long-term injured reserve on David Clarkson, who will not play again but still carries a $5.25MM cap hit. Even better would be to get rid of Clarkson’s contract entirely, and Jesse Granger of The Athletic notes that Clarkson’s camp actually submitted his 14-team no-trade list today. As Granger puts it, the submission is simply clerical as it doesn’t matter where Clarkson goes, but needed to be done if the team did want to move his contract at some point soon.
  • Thomas Vanek wants to play again in 2019-20 reports Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription required), and why not? The 35-year old winger recorded 36 points in 64 games for the Detroit Red Wings last season and is still a relatively effective powerplay option. Vanek is coming off a one-year $3MM deal with the Red Wings and now would be eligible for a bonus-laden contract if he can find a team interested. One of the most consistent offensive players of this generation, Vanek has 789 career points in 1,029 games and had recorded at least 41 points in every one of his 13 NHL seasons before 2018-19.

Snapshots: Flames, Draft Rankings, Penguins

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The Calgary Flames have renewed their affiliation with the Kansas City Mavericks through the 2019-20 season, keeping their ECHL franchise in place for a third season. The Mavericks reached the playoffs this season for just the second time in team history, recording a 36-30-6 record under head coach John-Scott Dickson. Flames AGM Brad Pascall released a statement on the agreement:

The Calgary Flames and the Stockton Heat are pleased to continue our affiliation agreement with the ECHL’s Kansas City Mavericks. Kansas City is a first class franchise with quality ownership and management and they share the same principles and objectives for player development as our organization.

The ECHL is turning into an important development league for every NHL organization and is no different for Calgary, who relied on the Mavericks to provide playing time for top goaltending prospects Mason McDonald and Nick Schneider this season. A continuing partnership can only help to build stability throughout the entire three-tiered development structure, and provide a place where raw or unheralded prospects can work on their game.

  • Speaking of prospects, Bob McKenzie of TSN has released his final draft ranking which is based on the opinion of ten active NHL scouts. The list has Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko at the top to no one’s surprise, but the pair of star forwards are followed by Bowen Byram, the top defender in the class. Diminutive sniper Cole Caufield and injured Peyton Krebs find themselves just sneaking into the top-10, while Spencer Knight is all the way up at No. 12. The ranking is by no means a mock draft, but can often give insight into the way teams around the NHL perceive certain players.
  • The Wilkes-Barre Scranton Penguins have signed Macoy Erkamps and Blake Siebenaler to AHL contracts for 2019-20. Both players were acquired by trade during the 2018-19 season and were scheduled to become restricted free agents this summer. Instead of issuing the pair of defensemen qualifying offers—or failing to do so and seeing them hit unrestricted free agency—the Penguins have found a sort of middle ground that keeps them in the organization while not taking up one of their NHL contract slots. 24-year old Erkamps had four points in 24 games for Wilkes-Barre/Scranton following the trade, while 23-year old Siebenaler saw more time with the Wheeling Nailers in the ECHL.

Erik Karlsson Re-Signs With San Jose Sharks

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UPDATE: The Sharks have now officially announced the Karlsson extension and it is worth even more than previously believed. Karlsson is set to make $11.5MM on average over an eight-year term for a total of $92MM, according to CapFriendly. That includes $53MM in signing bonuses, largely front loaded in the early years for potential lockout protection, as well as in the final two years to dissuade a buyout. The contract also includes a full No-Movement Clause. There is little doubt remaining that San Jose is all in on Karlsson given these terms, which make Karlsson the highest paid defenseman in NHL history and behind only Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews overall. The Sharks simply have to hope that he can get back to full health and remain that way as long as possible, while those teams that missed out on a chance to court him this summer have to hope that the somewhat underwhelming replacement options don’t drastically increase their asking price.

 

It’s been an ongoing narrative early this off-season that the San Jose Sharks were willing to do whatever it takes to re-sign Erik Karlsson, after the all-world defenseman played well – when healthy – in his first season with the team. Karlsson is considered not just the top defenseman on the free agent market, but arguably the biggest name overall, and that’s taking into account his injury concerns. Few defensemen in the NHL can do what a healthy Karlsson can offensively and the 29-year-old was set to cash in on the open market. Yet, it seems that GM Doug Wilson and the Sharks have convinced Karlsson that he doesn’t need to test the waters to find a considerable contract and a winning team. TSN insider Bob McKenzie reports that “all signs are pointing” to Karlsson returning to San Jose and colleague Pierre LeBrun follows it up by stating that “a deal is indeed done.”

McKenzie is hardly the first to report that extension talks were getting close between the two sides, but when the respected hockey mind makes a pronouncement like this, it generally carries significant weight. LeBrun thus checked in himself and found previous reports that the two sides were talking about a contract in the neighborhood of Drew Doughty’s eight-year, $88MM contract to be true. LeBrun believes that is will be an eight-year deal worth more than Doughty’s $11MM AAV. This would make Karlsson’s cap hit the third-largest in NHL history.

Unless his negotiating rights were to be traded prior to July 1st, the Sharks were always going to be the only team that could offer Karlsson that valuable eight year. However, it is likely their willingness to move into the double-digit AAV realm that pushed negotiations closer to a resolution. Especially in a season in which Karlsson missed 29 games due to injury, there was plenty of speculation that his value would take a hit on the free agent market, resulting in lesser term or at least a lower dollar value over a long-term deal. Instead, the Sharks seemingly plan to keep Karlsson in town by offering him the same contract he likely would have landed prior to this past season and hope that recent groin surgery solves the nagging soft tissue damage that cost the superstar blue liner so much time this season.

Assuming this extension becomes official shortly, it will have wide-ranging effects. San Jose cannot afford to re-sign Karlsson to this contract and also re-up restricted free agents Timo Meier and Kevin Labanc without making some sacrifices. Priority unrestricted free agents like Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton, Gustav Nyquist, and Joonas Donskoi cannot all return if any can. Signing even one of those players may force the Sharks to move out other salary from the roster. Additionally, per the terms of the original Karlsson trade, San Jose will also surrender a 2021 second-round pick to the Ottawa Senators in exchange for extending their acquisition. As for the rest of the free agent market, one of the top names is now off the board. The demand and thus the price for the next tier of defensemen – Jake Gardiner and Tyler Myers – just went up, as did the cost of bringing in a big name like Artemi Panarin or Matt Duchene after both Karlsson and Jeff Skinner received larger contracts than expected.

The greater story here though is that the Sharks’ Stanley Cup window, which some saw as closing if Karlsson, Pavelski, and Thornton were all to leave, has now been extended with the re-signing of one of the game’s best defensemen, so long as he can stay healthy. With Karlsson, Brent Burns, and Marc-Edouard Vlasic together on the blue line for at least six more years and core forwards like Logan Couture, Evander Kane, Tomas Hertl, and soon Meier locked up, the team has strength at both ends and will continue to be a top competitor year in and year out.

 

Jeff Skinner, Buffalo Sabres Agree To Long-Term Extension

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9:27 PM: It is official now and McKenzie was right on the mark with the terms. The Buffalo Sabres have announced an eight-year, $72MM extension with leading goal scorer Jeff Skinner. Skinner’s eight-year term is the NHL maximum and one only the Sabres could have awarded him. His new $9MM AAV is one that only 13 other forwards have topped, including teammate Jack Eichel. The Sabres hope that this investment can keep those two stars playing together on the team’s top line and dominating the competition en route to a return to the postseason.

8:46 PM: It was widely assumed that the Buffalo Sabres and star forward Jeff Skinner would eventually come to terms on a contract extension. After all, both sides benefited from the partnership in year one. Skinner enjoyed one of his best seasons to date, including potting a career-high 40 goals, while the Sabres landed a surefire top-line forward, who finished third on the team in scoring and found chemistry with young centerpieces Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart. Now, it appears that this speculation is about to pay off. TSN’s venerable insider, Bob McKenzie, reports that Buffalo is closing in on signing Skinner to an eight-year extension, thought to be in the realm of $9MM AAV.

If this $72MM deal comes together, Skinner could wind up in the upper echelon of NHL players when it comes to contract value. P.K. Subban, the only other player in the league with a $9MM cap hit, is currently ranked 16th in the league in AAV. The next players on the list are at $9.5MM, likely outside of the projected ranger for Skinner, but anything between a $9MM and $8.7MM AAV would put Skinner right there with Subban. Among those Subban would pass up include Sidney Crosby, Leon Draisaitl, Steven Stamkos, Claude Giroux, and Logan Couture. Obviously, the salary cap ceiling is increasing and Skinner’s cost is a function of that, but this is still a considerable leap for a player whose last contract was a six-year deal with a $5.75MM AAV with the Carolina Hurricanes.

Whether or not Skinner’s reported new value is a fair representation of his ability is up for debate. What’s not up for debate is that Buffalo can afford to offer this contract and possibly overpaying is better than the alternative. The Sabres are currently ranked 25th in committed salary cap entering the off-season with more than $29MM in space and Skinner is arguably their only priority free agent. Buffalo is a team that desperately want to improve, especially after a hot start was followed by an embarrassing second half and would up in yet another disappointing finish. Letting Skinner walk in free agency would be a nightmare for the team and GM Jason Botterill would rather gamble with his job down the line than almost surely lose it in the present if he failed to retain or somehow substantially replace Skinner. Will the 27-year-old be worth $9MM when he’s 35 years old? Almost certainly not, but that’s the trade-off of every long-term UFA contract. In the short-term this would be a great deal to hold on to a talented player who has been a great fit.

Snapshots: Draft Rankings, Skinner, Sustr

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It’s draft season, and the final rankings from several of the hockey world’s leading scouts are starting to come out. Today marked the release of Corey Pronman’s first 2019 mock draft for The Athletic (subscription required), and Craig Button’s top-31 prospects for TSN. Pronman’s mock details some of the rumblings he has heard at the draft combine and elsewhere, and interestingly notes there is still no consensus on who the Chicago Blackhawks will be taking at third overall.

While Pronman lists Alex Turcotte there hesitantly, Button has CHL defenseman Bowen Byram as the third best prospect available. More notable than that even is Button’s ranking of Cole Caufield, who has continued to fly up boards as we close in on the draft later this month. The diminutive forward climbs to fourth on the TSN list, with even more lauding of his ability to put the puck in the net.

  • Bob McKenzie of TSN will release his final draft rankings a little later in the month, but he did tweet out a note regarding Buffalo Sabres forward Jeff Skinner today. McKenzie notes that it is “crunch time” in the negotiations between Buffalo and Skinner, and expects either a deal will get done in the next few days or the sniper will wait until unrestricted free agency. The TSN insider expects an eight-year deal worth $72MM, or something thereabouts. Skinner, 27, is coming off a 40-goal season and has made it clear he does enjoy playing with the Sabres. Still, a $72MM price tag is awfully expensive for any team.
  • A report out of Russia has Andrej Sustr signing a one-year deal with Kunlun Red Star of the KHL, though there has been no formal confirmation at this point. The 28-year old defenseman is set to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1 after his current deal expires, and spent last season almost entirely in the minor leagues. Sustr was once a full-time member of the Tampa Bay Lightning blue line, but fell out of favor and never found his footing in the Anaheim Ducks organization.

Minnesota Wild Acquire, Sign Fedor Gordeev

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4:17pm: The Wild have indeed signed Gordeev to a three-year entry-level contract, meaning Toronto will now receive their 2020 seventh-round pick.

11:45am: The Minnesota Wild have acquired the rights to Fedor Gordeev from the Toronto Maple Leafs. Gordeev needs to be signed by June 1 or else his exclusive rights would expire and he would re-enter the draft. If he does sign, the Maple Leafs will receive a seventh round pick.

Gordeev, 20, was originally selected in the fifth round of the 2017 draft, but wasn’t going to sign with the Maple Leafs. The 6’7″ defenseman had a fine season in the OHL, starting out with the Flint Firebirds before joining the OHL Champion Guelph Storm at the deadline. Gordeev may not have had the offensive impact that he was hoping for in the OHL playoffs, but is still an interesting project for the Wild to try and develop. Obviously his size presents a big opportunity, given that he can also move the puck and skate well.

Minnesota must have liked Gordeev, given that they could have drafted him themselves in a few weeks had he re-entered the draft. For the Maple Leafs, getting anything for a player you were about to lose for nothing is obviously a positive, but it does represent another failed late-round pick. Outside of their early selections the Maple Leafs haven’t found much success in the last few drafts, with another 2017 pick Ryan McGregor also expected to go unsigned. With the impending cap crunch in Toronto, the team will need to start finding some organizational depth in the later rounds in order to keep their window open.

Bob McKenzie of TSN first reported the deal.

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