Snapshots: Copp, Seabrook, Mikheyev
The Winnipeg Jets have announced that Andrew Copp is out on a week-to-week basis with an upper-body injury, ruling him out until after Christmas at the earliest. The 25-year old Copp left last night’s game against the Carolina Hurricanes after a collision with Jordan Staal. Jets head coach Paul Maurice told reporters today including Ken Wiebe of The Athletic that the injury is not a concussion, but that more tests needed to be completed to understand the severity.
Copp has 14 points in 34 games this season and once again has been an integral part of the Jets’ penalty killing efforts, averaging more short-handed ice time than any forward other than Adam Lowry. Winnipeg has been struck by the injury bug several times this season, but right now are stretching their depth up front very thin.
- Good news for Chicago Blackhawks fans is bad news for Brent Seabrook. Duncan Keith will return tonight for the Blackhawks, meaning someone else had to come out of the lineup. That’s going to be Seabrook, who will be healthy scratched for the third time this season. The 34-year old Seabrook still has four more years on his current contract with the Blackhawks after 2019-20 and carries a $6.875MM cap hit.
- Ilya Mikheyev has scored in consecutive games for the Toronto Maple Leafs and now has six goals and 19 points through 35 games. That’s more than anyone could have expected from him in his first year in North America, but the Maple Leafs weren’t the only team that saw a future for the speedy winger when he was playing in the KHL. In fact, Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic tweets that about 20 teams showed interest in Mikheyev before he chose Toronto, suggesting that Chicago and the Vegas Golden Knights were among those who pursued him the hardest. Mikheyev is on just a one-year entry-level contract with Toronto and will be a restricted free agent at the end of the season.
Central Notes: Spurgeon, Koivu, Thomas, Avalanche, Copp
The Minnesota Wild announced earlier today they signed Jared Spurgeon to a seven-year, $53MM extension that will kick in during the 2020-21 season. The Athletic’s Michael Russo reports that Spurgeon’s deal has a no movement clause this year as well as the first four years of the first contract. After that, Spurgeon has a 10-team modified no-trade clause for the final three years, which will kick in during the 2024-25 season.
- Sticking with the Wild, Minnesota got some good news about injured forward Mikko Koivu, who had surgery to repair a torn ACL back in February. The 36-year-old, who was expected to be eased back into practices and scrimmages in training camp, told coach Bruce Boudreau that he’s ready and is expected to participate in scrimmages on Monday, according to StarTribune’s Sarah McLellan. Koivu was cleared for practice on Thursday, but now looks like he’s ready for full play. He scored eight goals and 29 points in 47 games last season before going down with the knee injury.
- NHL.com’s Lou Korac reports that the St. Louis Blues have been without forward Robert Thomas for a second straight day as he recovers from offseason surgery to repair a tendon in his left wrist. He and Jordan Kyrou, out with a knee injury, are expected to be brought back slowly from their injuries. “We’ve got them in that third group right now,” Blues head coach Craig Berube said. “We’ve got to be a little cautious with them right now.”
- BSN Denver’s A.J. Haefele writes that Colorado Avalanche head coach Jared Bednar had quite a few positive to point out after Day 2 of training camp. Bednar pointed out quite a bit of improvement in the play of winger Andre Burakovsky and the standout play of A.J. Greer and the impressive leaderships skills of Pierre-Edouard Bellemare. He also said that he believes that the next step for defenseman Samuel Girard is his offensive game. The 21-year-old scored four goals and 27 points last season. While both were career highs, Bednar would like to see those numbers rise this season.
- The Athletic’s Ken Wiebe reports that the Winnipeg Jets are without a few player at the moment. The team has been without forward Andrew Copp due to a minor groin injury, while Kristian Vesalainen and Sami Niku were stiff Saturday after being in a fender-bender on Friday. They should return soon.
Central Notes: Colorado’s Defense, Little, Kiviranta
After impressive performances on the ice at their rookie tournament over the past two days, the Colorado Avalanche dream of a dominant group of franchise defensemen are much closer than they had initially imagined. The team already has two established cornerstones on defense in Samuel Girard and Cale Makar, but the play of 2019 first-round pick Bowen Byram and 2017 second-rounder Conor Timmins suggest they might be closer to join the other two sooner rather than later, according to Mike Chambers of the Denver Post.
Both will be with the team on Friday when training camp begins. Byram will have to prove that he’s ready for the challenges of the NHL already as a recently-turned 18-year-old. He broke out in a big way in the WHL with the Vancouver Giants, scoring 26 goals and 71 points, but he either must make the Avalanche or be returned to Vancouver. Timmins is a different story. The 20-year-old missed the entire 2018-19 season last year after dealing with concussion-like symptoms and likely will begin the season in the AHL until he gets some game experience, but could be recalled at any time if Colorado needs him.
- One story that has been an issue for years in Winnipeg has been the Jets’ need to establish a No. 2 center. The team has gone with veteran Bryan Little over the years only to acquire a second-line center at the trade deadline the previous two years in Paul Stastny back in 2018 and Kevin Hayes in 2019. Unfortunately, due to cap issues, the Jets were unable to retain either player and are once again on the lookout for someone internally to step up into that role. For Little, the job remains his to lose. The 31-year-old’s numbers continue to decline little by little, scoring 15 goals and 41 points (his least productive season since 2009-10), but he remains the top option, according to Winnipeg Free Press’ Mike McIntyre. The only other options look to be Andrew Copp and Jack Roslovic, both of which seem like longshots to claim that role.
- The Dallas Stars have a number of young prospects who might have a chance to make their opening day roster, including prospects Ty Dellandrea, Jason Robertson, Denis Gurianov and Riley Tufte amongst many. However, the Stars might have another player who could step up after Joel Kiviranta scored a hat trick against the New York Rangers squad Saturday, suggesting that the recently signed forward out of Finland could make an immediate impact for Dallas, according to NHL.com’s Mike Heika. The 23-year-old Kiviranta is still adjusting to the smaller North American ice, but has a lot of experience playing amongst men in Finland after five years there. He has tallied 35 goals over the past two years there.
2019 Arbitration Figures And Results
August 6th: All arbitration cases have now been completed. In total, six cases were decided by an arbitrator’s award this year. That number, though seemingly not many, actually presents a 50% increase over last summer and more than the past two off-seasons combined. Of those six decisions, the teams and players received the favorable decision an even three times apiece, and each award landed within $150K of the midpoint. All things considered, there were few surprises in arbitration, even though there were more awards than expected. Now the question is where the relationships between those teams and players go from here.
Originally published on July 19th: Friday marked the start of the arbitration season in the NHL, with Brock McGinn first scheduled for his hearing with the Carolina Hurricanes. The appointments will come fast and furious after that, with 23 cases left on the books. When we asked our readers how many would actually get to the hearing stage more than 36% of voters thought 3-4 was reasonable, the same number that reached last year.
We know now that at least one will, as Andrew Copp‘s agent Kurt Overhardt told Ken Wiebe of the Winnipeg Free Press that their camp will “look forward to” the hearing scheduled for Sunday. Copp and the Jets exchanged figures earlier today. It is important to remember that the two sides can actually work out a deal in the short period after the hearing and before the actual decision is submitted by the arbitrator. For every case except Ville Husso, who the St. Louis Blues took to arbitration, the team involved will be allowed to choose the duration of the contract awarded. They can choose either one or two years, unless the player is only one year away from unrestricted free agency, at which point only a one-year deal is available.
Here we’ll keep track of all the hearings still on the books and the figures submitted. This page will be updated as the numbers come in:
July 20:
Brock McGinn, Carolina Hurricanes – Team: $1.75MM AAV, Player: $2.7MM AAV
Settled: Two years, $2.1MM AAV
July 21:
Andrew Copp, Winnipeg Jets – Team: $1.5MM AAV, Player: $2.9MM AAV
Awarded: Two years, $2.28MM AAV
July 22:
MacKenzie Weegar, Florida Panthers
Settled: One year, $1.6MM AAV
Zach Aston-Reese, Pittsburgh Penguins
Settled: Two years, $1.0MM AAV
Ville Husso, St. Louis Blues (team-elected)
Settled: One year, two-way, $700K AAV
Christian Djoos, Washington Capitals – Team: $800K, Player: $1.9MM
Awarded: One year, $1.25MM AAV
July 23:
Evan Rodrigues, Buffalo Sabres – Team: $1.5MM, Player: $2.65MM
Awarded: One year, $2.0MM AAV
July 24:
Oskar Sundqvist, St. Louis Blues
Settled: Four years, $2.75MM AAV
Neal Pionk, Winnipeg Jets
Settled: Two years, $3.0MM AAV
July 26:
Colton Sissons, Nashville Predators
Settled: Seven years, $2.86MM AAV
July 27:
Sam Bennett, Calgary Flames
Settled: Two years, $2.55MM AAV
July 28:
Mirco Mueller, New Jersey Devils
Settled: One year, $1.4MM AAV
July 29:
David Rittich, Calgary Flames
Settled: Two years, $2.75MM AAV
Pavel Buchnevich, New York Rangers
Settled: Two years, $3.25MM AAV
August 1:
Remi Elie, Buffalo Sabres
Settled: One year, two-way $700K AAV
Chandler Stephenson, Washington Capitals
Settled: One year, $1.05MM
August 2:
Linus Ullmark, Buffalo Sabres – Team: $800K, Player: $2.65MM
Settled: One year, $1.33MM
Will Butcher, New Jersey Devils
Settled: Three years, $3.73MM AAV
August 4:
Jake McCabe, Buffalo Sabres – Team: 1.95MM, Player: $4.3MM
Settled: Two years, $2.85MM AAV
Anton Forsberg, Carolina Hurricanes – Team: $700K/$70K, Player: $833K
Awarded: One year, $775K AAV
Sheldon Dries, Colorado Avalanche
Settled: One year, two-way $735K AAV
Rocco Grimaldi, Nashville Predators – Team: $700K/$70K, Player $1.275MM
Awarded: One year, $1MM
Joel Edmundson, St. Louis Blues – Team: $2.3MM, Player $4.2MM
Awarded: One year, $3.1MM
Snapshots: Jets, Kings, Badgers
A lot has been made about the rumored discourse in the Winnipeg Jets’ locker room. The team suffered another early exit from the postseason this year and some reactions from players, coaches, and media members alike indicated that chemistry concerns may have played a role. This off-season hasn’t helped the narrative either, with mainstays Tyler Myers, Ben Chiarot, and Brandon Tanev all electing to walk away as free agents, while Jacob Trouba was traded and Marko Dano and Joe Morrow were not qualified. Andrew Copp was re-signed, but only after a salary arbitration award, and Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor remain unsigned. It’s not good look for a group of players who some feel don’t get along.
Well, star player Mark Scheifele wants to put a stop to these whispers. Speaking with NHL.com’s Mike Zeisberger, the Jets’ No. 1 center said that he is confident in his team’s chemistry. “People can claim whatever, but I know we have a tight-knit team,” Scheifele said, “We have great guys in our room. And there’s no question in my mind about the character we have in our room, the unity that we have.” He summed up the ongoing drama by stating that “you know what’s going on in your room. Anything extra is a bunch of baloney.” Scheifele admitted that it was difficult to see the likes of Trouba, Myers, Chiarot, and Tanev leave and hopes that there are resolutions shortly with Laine and Connor, but did not hint that internal issues were the cause of any of their negotiations. Of course, Scheifele would never come out and say otherwise, but it should provide Winnipeg fans with a bit of comfort that he was willing to speak openly about the locker room and tried to shut down the rumors that personalities have or could continue to affect the team’s performance.
- The World Junior Summer Showcase is underway and fans of the Los Angeles Kings should pay close attention. NHL.com’s Adam Kimelman writes that the Kings lead the way with seven prospects participating in the tournament, headlined by recent No. 5 overall pick Alex Turcotte of Team USA. In fact, each of L.A.’s top four selections in June are in attendance; Turcotte is joined by fellow first-round pick Tobias Bjornfot, fellow American forward Arthur Kaliyev, and forward Samuel Fagemo, who joins Bjornfot on Team Sweden. Fourth-round pick Kim Nousiainen will also suit up for Team Finland. 2018 picks Akil Thomas and Aidan Dudas will both line up at forward for Team Canada. It’s an impressive collection of young talent for the Kings and one that should inspire hope for the future for a team that finished last in the Western Conference this past season with just 71 points. This group likely won’t be making an impact in the NHL in 2019-20, but L.A. is grooming a talented young core to take over down the road.
- As for next season, Turcotte definitely won’t be in L.A., as he’s committed to playing at the University of Wisconsin. The Badgers’ incoming recruiting class has been very highly regarded, as it features Turcotte and fellow U.S. National Team Development Program products Cole Caufield (MTL) and Owen Lindmark (FLA), as well as another 2019 draft selection in Ryder Donovan (VGK) and potential 2020 top-ten pick in Dylan Holloway. With so many talented freshmen incoming, the question has been how head coach Tony Granato would use his rejuvenated roster. That question has been partially answered for the arguably the team’s new two best forwards. Talking to The Athletic’s Corey Pronman at the Summer Showcase, Caufield stated that he and Turcotte will play on the same line for Wisconsin, at least to begin the year. The duo have some familiarity, although Caufield – the No. 15 pick this year – largely played on Jack Hughes‘ wing last season. However, they both possess immense offensive talent, while Turcotte has the two-way intelligence to compensate for Caufield’s lack of size and defensive focus if need be. Having played on the international stage already, the adjustment to the college level should not be too difficult and Turcotte and Caufield could put up huge numbers in their first (and likely only) collegiate season.
Arbitration Notes: Departures, Capitals, Sabres
It’s no secret that salary arbitration is not a friendly process. If a player does make it all the way through the hearing, that means that they’ve sat through a presentation by their own team about just how bad they are compared to other similar players. While teams and players often use the threat of the unknown of an arbitrator’s decision to move contract talks along, the potential unpleasantness of a hearing is also plenty of motivation to come to terms. Case in point: Colorado’s Sheldon Dries, who today settled on a one-year, two-way contract worth $735K. Dries’ contract comes in just $35K above the absolute worst possible outcome in an arbitration hearing, yet he opted not to argue his case in hopes of a better outcome. Why? Likely to avoid the breakdown in a relationship between he and the Avalanche if the hearing got ugly. It’s more common than it may seem – The Athletic’s Craig Custance crunched the numbers and found that the vast majority of players who go through an arbitration hearing end up leaving that team, one way or another.
Over the past ten years, 27 players have gone into a hearing. Not all of those players required an arbitrator’s award, but any resulting settlements still came after the unfortunate back-and-forth. Of those 27 players, Custance found that 14 were on new teams within a year and 21 were on new teams within three years. All of last summer’s cases – Winnipeg’s Jacob Trouba, Ottawa’s Cody Ceci, Calgary’s Brett Kulak, and Dallas’ Gemel Smith – are on new teams now. In fact, of the 27 players who have reached a hearing since 2009, no player before 2015 remains on the team that the faced off with and only four players since still remain on good terms with their club: Nashville’s Craig Smith and Viktor Arvidsson, Washington’s Braden Holtby, and Vegas’ Nate Schmidt. This all goes to show that arbitration can be a dangerous method of negotiating for teams, even if the goal is to settle before an arbitrator’s decision. The numbers convincingly imply that an arbitration hearing is the death knell for a player’s relationship with his team. As far as this off-season goes, this analysis doesn’t bode well for Andrew Copp and the Jets, Christian Djoos and the Capitals, and Evan Rodrigues and the Sabres, all of whom not only went to hearings already this summer, but whose awards all favored the team more so than the player. With ten potential cases still to go, there could be even more players who one day look back at this off-season as the beginning of the end.
- The Capitals may very well end up back in front of an arbitrator before long, with a case against forward Chandler Stephenson scheduled for August 1st. Although the decision in the Djoos case – a $1.25MM award against a $1.35MM midpoint – favored the team, it still puts them in a difficult situation regarding the salary cap and eliminates some hope that a resolution with Stephenson could come prior to a hearing. Washington is currently more than $300K over the salary cap ceiling after signing Djoos. While young defenseman Jonas Siegenthaler can be returned to the AHL without the threat of waivers for a $714K drop to get under the cap, it would leave the Capitals with just six defensemen. All of Washington’s 14 NHL forwards, including Stephenson, would be subject to waivers, although the team would likely want to carry that many forwards anyway. It’s a difficult conundrum not made any easier by the unknown of Stephenson’s contract either. The 25-year-old forward recorded 18 points in 67 games in 2017-18 and another 11 points in 62 games this past season. He will likely seek a salary of $1MM or more, a number that Washington simply cannot palate. Asked who the team would choose if faced with a choice between trading away Djoos or Stephenson to open up cap space and roster flexibility, NBC Sports’ J.J. Regan did not hesitate to say that Stephenson would be the one dealt. Defense is in short supply for the Capitals and Djoos is a proven starter. Stephenson on the other hand would be an expendable piece in a deep forward corps. It may not matter though, as moving Stephenson alone is unlikely to be a sufficient answer to Washington’s cap troubles.
- If you think the Capitals having two cases is bad, wait until you hear about the Sabres. Like Washington, Buffalo has already been through one hearing this summer with forward Evan Rodrigues, landing a $2MM award against a $2.075MM midpoint. It was somewhat of a surprising decision and may have given GM Jason Botterill and company some confidence moving forward. That could wind up being a problem for all parties involved, as three of the remaining ten scheduled cases are also Sabres players: forward Remi Elie, goalie Linus Ullmark, and defenseman Jake McCabe. If Buffalo goes to hearing with even one more of these players, never mind all three, it could be a bad look for the organization and could cause a breakdown in numerous player relationships. However, if the team continues to win their arbitration battles, it would be a major help this season, as the team has just over $3MM in cap space left to sign the trio. It’s a long-term risk for a short-term gain for the Sabres.
Arbitration Awards Andrew Copp Two-Year Deal
Andrew Copp is the first player to earn an arbitration ruling this year, following his hearing on Sunday. The arbitrator has awarded a two-year contract carrying an average annual value of $2.28MM. The Winnipeg Jets decided on the length and were looking for a $1.5MM AAV, while Copp filed for $2.9MM. Read our breakdown of the case right here. Copp will still be a restricted free agent at the end of the deal.
While the deal is a reasonable amount for the 25-year old Copp, it takes just another chunk out of a Winnipeg payroll that has to find a way to fit in new contracts for Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor. They’re now sitting at just under $17.6MM in cap space for a roster of 17 players, which means long-term deals may not be possible depending on the asking price of their star RFAs. That cap crunch limited their ability to spend in free agency, meaning Jacob Trouba, Tyler Myers and Ben Chiarot have all departed their blue line without many replacements coming in. Neal Pionk, Sami Niku and others will have to fill those roles.
This decision is also the final arbitration case that the Jets had, meaning a short buyout window will open in three days. The team could potentially buyout a player that has a cap hit of more than $3.45MM and was on their reserve list at the most recent trade deadline. There aren’t any names that stand out as candidates, though the team may obviously have different plans. Other names like Mathieu Perreault have been bandied about in trade speculation, though Kevin Cheveldayoff is one of the league’s most infrequent traders, completing just 36 in the near eight years he has been on the job.
Arbitration Breakdown: Andrew Copp
Salary arbitration season is underway, as hearings were scheduled to begin on July 20th and extend through August 4th. While arbitration awards are very infrequent, with most cases settling beforehand, occasionally a binding decision is handed down by the arbitrator. What goes on behind closed doors before that point? The players, aided by their representation and the NHLPA, and their respective teams, aided by a select group of lawyers, each file at a certain salary over a one- or two-year term. The arbitrator may decide on any salary at or between those two points, based on the arguments in each sides’ written brief and oral presentation. While both sides will have themes to base their arguments on, rather than debate only the merits of the player, the bulk of the conversation in an arbitration hearing instead centers around comparable players. Each side will use a tailored group of statistical ranges, both career and platform year numbers, to show how the player compares to similar recent arbitration-eligible players. All statistics are available to use, but their persuasiveness is the key. The player side will look to show that the player is superior to a group of players at a salary lower than their filing number, while the team side will look to show that player is inferior to a group of players above their filing number. Whoever makes the most convincing argument will land the favorable decision.
After the Carolina Hurricanes and Brock McGinn settled this morning, just before their scheduled hearing, the Winnipeg Jets’ Andrew Copp became next in line. Ironically, he and McGinn are very similar players with very similar filing number midpoints in their cases. The Jets and Copp are farther apart than were the ‘Canes and McGinn, and Copp’s agent has been open about intending to settle that dispute through arbitration, so a hearing is more likely than not. A Copp hearing would be very similar to what a McGinn hearing would have been, including many shared comparable players, now including McGinn. Here is a closer look at his case:
The Case of Andrew Copp
Career Statistics: 293 games played, 36 goals, 48 assists, 84 points, +55 rating
Platform Statistics: 69 games played, 11 goals, 14 assists, 25 points, +20 rating
Filing Numbers: Copp – One year, $2.9MM, Jets – Two years, $1.5MM (midpoint: $2.2MM)
Player Side
Themes:
- Top-Nine Forward: among top nine Jets forwards in goals per game, assists per game, points per game, and total points in platform season; consistent improvement in scoring numbers every season
- Key Defensive Player: led Jets forwards in plus/minus by wide margin; regular shorthanded role; strong face-off numbers
Potential Comparable Players:
Brock McGinn (2019)
Career Statistics: 240 games played, 36 goals, 40 assists, 76 points, -27 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games played, 10 goals, 16 assists, 26 points, +10 rating
Salary: $2.1MM
- Player’s argument: very similar career offensive totals; Copp had better per game offensive numbers in the platform season; Copp has more experience; Copp has far superior career plus/minus; Copp is a center, valued more than winger
- Team’s counter: McGinn has better career per-game scoring; McGinn has better defensive numbers – hits, blocked shots, takeaways, shorthanded ATOI
Johan Larsson (2019)
Career Statistics: 331 games played, 32 goals, 47 assists, 79 points, -49 rating
Platform Statistics: 73 games played, 6 goals, 8 assists, 14 points, -8 rating
Salary: $1.55MM
- Player’s argument: Copp has far better offensive totals and per game numbers in platform season; Copp has better career offensive totals and per game numbers; Copp has far better career and platform plus/minus
- Team’s counter: Larsson’s salary is considerably below midpoint; Larsson has more experience; Larsson has better defensive numbers – hits, blocked shots, takeaways, shorthanded ATOI
Team Side
Themes:
- Not a Reliable Player: two seasons out of four with less than 70 games played due to injury; drop-off in ATOI in platform season; no role on power play, second penalty kill unit; scores in bunches, suffers droughts
- Not a Key Defensive Player: outside top five Jets forwards in hits, blocked shots, and takeaways; fourth in total face-offs taken; one of seven Jets forwards with at least one minute of shorthanded ATOI; prone to turnovers
Potential Comparable Players:
Joel Armia (2019)
Career Statistics: 237 games, 39 goals, 42 assists, 81 points, -3 rating
Platform Statistics: 57 games, 13 goals, 10 assists, 23 points, even rating
Salary: $2.6MM
- Team’s argument: Armia has far better career per game offensive numbers; Armia had far better per game offensive numbers in platform; similar defensive numbers; Armia creates turnovers, Copp prone to turning puck over
- Player’s counter: Copp has more experience and more consistent games played; Copp is a center, valued more than a winger
Scott Laughton (2019)
Career Statistics: 272 games played, 31 goals, 48 assists, 79 points, -24 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games played, 12 goals, 20 assists, 32 points, -11 rating
Salary: $2.3MM
- Team’s argument: Laughton had better platform season; Laughton is better defensive player – more face-offs, hits, blocked shots, shorthanded ATOI ; Laughton has been more consistent contributor
- Player’s counter: very similar career offensive totals and per game numbers; Copp is superior goal scorer; Copp has far superior plus/minus; very similar age and size; same position and shot side
Prediction
This is not an exhaustive list of possible comparable players, but based on the player side and team side filing numbers and the resulting midpoint, this case is dead even. As similar as Copp is to McGinn, his side should be able to make a solid case that he is the better offensive player. In fact, Copp and Laughton are extremely similar offensive players and both sides could wind up using Laughton as a comparable player. That situation would greatly benefit Copp, as Laughton’s $2.3MM salary is on his side of the midpoint and there’s a fair case to be made that Copp is better goal-scorer than Laughton. Where Copp’s side could fall short is in emphasizing his defensive prowess, as he falls short against most comparable and several teammates. It’s hard to see Copp far surpassing Laughton or falling well below McGinn, so expect him to land a deal in the $2-2.35MM range.
Andrew Copp, Winnipeg Jets Exchange Arbitration Figures
Second on the list of arbitration hearings scheduled for this summer is Andrew Copp of the Winnipeg Jets. The two sides exchanged figures prior to their hearing on Sunday, and according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet the player filed for a one-year deal at $2.9MM while the team is looking for a two-year contract at $1.5MM. In this case the team gets to choose the length of the award because Copp was the one who filed for arbitration. It is important to remember that not only can the two sides still negotiate a different deal in the time remaining (and even for a short period after the hearing), the arbitration decision also does not need to be one salary or the other. The award can (and usually does) fall somewhere in the middle of the submitted figures.
Copp only just turned 25 a few days ago, meaning he will be a restricted free agent at the end of even a two-year contract. The fourth-round pick has developed into a valuable depth piece for the Jets even if his offense still hasn’t progressed very far. Scoring 11 goals and 25 points in 69 games last season was the best rate of his NHL career, but his real worth lies on the penalty kill and in the corners where he is a strong possession player.
The question will be how the Jets can afford to keep him as a fourth-line player if he receives a decision anywhere near the $2.9MM he filed for. Though they still have nearly $23MM in cap room, Winnipeg has contracts still to sign with Kyle Connor and Patrik Laine which should likely total more than $15MM combined. That $23MM disappears fast given it is only based on a 15-player roster at the moment, and Neal Pionk is also due for an arbitration hearing next week. The Jets find themselves in real trouble after losing three key players from their blue line and will need a youngster like Jack Roslovic or Kristian Vesalainen to give them some real value on an entry-level deal.
Poll: How Many Unresolved Arbitration Cases Will Require An Award?
In the NHL, the salary arbitration process is more often used as a negotiating tool – an incentive to get a deal done before the uncomfortable setting of a hearing and the unknown of an arbitrator’s decision – than it is for its actual purpose. A vast majority of players who file for arbitration end up settling before their hearing or even at the last moment before an award is handed down. Last year, 44 players filed for arbitration and 40 settled prior to their hearing. The year before, all 30 cases were resolved before an arbitration award could be made.
So what about this year? There were initially 40 cases of player-elected arbitration and one case of team-elected arbitration (the St. Louis Blues and goalie Ville Husso), but that number is now down to 25 open cases. That’s a substantial drop-off, but time is running out for some RFA’s and their teams to come to terms, as the first scheduled hearing is set to take place on Saturday, July 20th. Listed below are all of the remaining cases:
July 20: Brock McGinn, Carolina Hurricanes
July 21: Andrew Copp, Winnipeg Jets
July 22: MacKenzie Weegar, Florida Panthers; Zach Aston-Reese, Pittsburgh Penguins; Ville Husso, St. Louis Blues; Christian Djoos, Washington Capitals
July 23: Evan Rodrigues, Buffalo Sabres
July 24: Oskar Sundqvist, St. Louis Blues; Neal Pionk, Winnipeg Jets
July 25: Jacob Trouba, New York Rangers
July 26: Colton Sissons, Nashville Predators
July 27: Sam Bennett, Calgary Flames
July 28: Mirco Mueller, New Jersey Devils
July 29: David Rittich, Calgary Flames; Pavel Buchnevich, New York Rangers
August 1: Remi Elie, Buffalo Sabres; Chandler Stephenson, Washington Capitals
August 2: Linus Ullmark, Buffalo Sabres; Charles Hudon, Montreal Canadiens; Will Butcher, New Jersey Devils
August 4: Jake McCabe, Buffalo Sabres; Anton Forsberg, Carolina Hurricanes; Sheldon Dries, Colorado Avalanche; Rocco Grimaldi, Nashville Predators; Joel Edmundson, St. Louis Blues
Given the time constraints and the complexity of each of these cases, how many will feel forced to go to hearing? Will Trouba be one of that select group, as he was last year? Will the Sabres struggle to settle four cases before their scheduled hearing dates? Will the Blues see through their team-elected case with Husso? Will other goalies prove to be difficult negotiations? And will polarizing players like Bennett and Buchnevich fail to find common ground with their teams? Or will it be under-the-radar players like Gemel Smith and Brett Kulak last year who go through the full process?
There are many questions left about this group of restricted free agents and time is running out before we know the answers. So the choice is yours: will we see an unprecedented class of arbitration awards or will all or most cases reach a resolution in the coming weeks?
How Many Unresolved Arbitration Cases Will Require An Award?
-
3-4 36% (200)
-
5-6 25% (139)
-
1-2 17% (95)
-
9+ 10% (57)
-
7-8 8% (44)
-
None 4% (20)
Total votes: 555
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