NHL, Stakeholders Discuss Possible Change To Draft Age
Could the NHL change the draft age from 18 to 19?
TSN’s Bob McKenzie spoke about the possibility on Tuesday night’s edition of Insider Trading. Former third-overall-pick Pat LaFontaine is leading a group of stakeholders that includes the NHL, NHLPA, CHL, USHL, Hockey Canada, USA Hockey, and NCAA to discuss a “whole new development model.”
According to McKenzie, the model would go from age five to age 20, and would include changing the NHL Draft-eligible age to 19, with “some obvious exceptions for exceptional players.”
The system would likely feature an expanded version of the CHL’s Exceptional Player Status. Normally, players aren’t eligible to play in the WHL, OHL, or QMJHL (the CHL’s three leagues) until they’re 16. However, there is a process (outlined extensively by McKenzie here) where players deemed exceptional can begin to play Major Junior at age 15. Players and their families apply to the CHL and Hockey Canada, and the player is examined on and off the ice to determine if he truly is exceptional. So far, only six players have ever applied, with John Tavares, Aaron Ekblad, Connor McDavid, Sean Day, and 2018-eligible Joseph Veleno being successful candidates. The first thee on that list went first overall in their OHL and NHL draft years, while Day went fourth in the OHL draft was a third-round pick of the New York Rangers in 2016. While it’s still early in his career, McKenzie noted that “some were questioning whether he was as blatantly exceptional as Tavares, Ekblad or McDavid.”
Changing the NHL Draft age would drastically change the way the draft is conducted. Looking back over the past two drafts, top selections like McDavid, Jack Eichel, Auston Matthews, and Patrik Laine would likely have been able to still be drafted at age 18. All four of them have been successful in their rookie seasons, and were clearly NHL-ready at age 18/19. While McDavid was a CHL exceptional-status player, the other three played NCAA, Swiss National League, and Liiga in their draft years. The NHL and other stakeholders would need to find a way to coordinate with all leagues to determine which players are truly exceptional and deserve to be drafted at age 18.
While the above mentioned players would still have been drafted at 18, elite prospects like Dylan Strome, Mitch Marner, Noah Hanifin, Jesse Puljujärvi, and Pierre-Luc Dubois may have been forced to wait an extra year, depending on the rules set out. As it stands now, several teams have issues with how the NHL-CHL agreement is laid out, as it forces 19-year-old draft+1 players to either play in the NHL or CHL when the AHL may be the best for their development. Strome is a current example: he’s posted 129 and 111 points in his last two years in the OHL and has nothing to gain from returning to junior, where he will dominate and potentially learn bad habits because of how dominant he is at that level. Strome has just one assist in six NHL games this year, and would be well-served by 40 games in the AHL to learn the pro game. That’s currently prevented by the NHL-CHL agreement. On one hand, it’s easy to see that CHL teams don’t want to lose their brightest stars before they absolutely have to, but at the same time it may not be in the player’s best interests to go back to junior. Changing the draft age to 19 could alleviate this issue, with drafted players only playing one more year of junior, at most, before turning pro.
LaFontaine and the stakeholders will meet again on Wednesday. On Insider Trading, McKenzie said they’ll “need to get some traction soon if it’s going to happen.”
The NHLPA would also need to agree to the change in collective bargaining when the current CBA expires in 2022 (both sides can opt out two years early). Convincing the Players Association that players will have to wait an extra year before making an NHL salary could be a tough argument, but it will be interesting to see how the discussion goes over the next little while.
Connor McDavid’s Next Contract
He may be eight months away from being able to sign it, and 20 months before it takes effect, but Connor McDavid‘s second contract is already a topic of conversation in the hockey world.
Despite being only 19-years-old and 55 games into his NHL career, McDavid is already a top-five player in the NHL. Of course, he’s scored 60 points in those 55 games, and is currently sitting tied for second in NHL scoring. He’s also the youngest captain in NHL history and the unquestioned face of the Oilers franchise.
McDavid is currently in the second year of his three-year entry-level contract. Including bonuses, McDavid can make $3.775MM per season. He’s eligible to negotiate and sign a contract extension on July 1, 2017. The longest term possible is eight years, something that’s a given for the Oilers but perhaps a point of worry for the McDavid camp. On Tuesday night’s Insider Trading, TSN and ESPN insider Pierre Lebrun floated the idea that the potential lockout in 2020 or 2022 could affect the player agent’s willingness to sign through that. He followed that up on Wednesday morning on TSN radio in Vancouver, pointing to the past CBA’s effects on player contracts. In 2005, there was a 24% salary rollback to all players; in 2013 they added cap recapture penalties to so-called “cheat deals” like Shea Weber‘s. While Lebrun isn’t saying McDavid doesn’t want to sign an eight-year extension in Edmonton, he does point out the possibility of a four-year deal because “there’s some concern that when the CBA ends, maybe they need to protect themselves because the rules may change on existing contracts.”
Numbers-wise, McDavid is a very likely candidate to become the highest-paid player in the NHL. Chris Johnston discussed McDavid on Tuesday night’s Sportsnet Hockey Central, opining that he “doesn’t see any” situation where McDavid doesn’t become the highest-paid player in the NHL. Currently, Blackhawks forwards Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane‘s $10.5MM cap hits are the highest in the NHL. Kings captain Anze Kopitar is the only other player making $10MM or more.
Of course, the Oilers could luck out if McDavid is as superstitious as the previous “next one” Sidney Crosby. Following his standard entry-level contract, Crosby has signed two separate contracts with an AAV of $8.7MM, which of course is the same as his number. Getting McDavid signed at under $10MM per season would be a major win for the Oilers and allow them to build a stronger team around him. Both sides can look no further than the Blackhawks struggles to keep their team together with Toews and Kane accounting for a combined $21MM against the cap.
Including LTIR-relief from former captain Andrew Ference (career-ending hip surgery), the Oilers are around $5MM below the cap. Things will change in the summer, when Leon Draisaitl is an RFA. Look for depth defenseman Mark Fayne to bought out or traded with salary retained to clear most of his $3.625MM cap hit, and perhaps a trade involving a bigger salaried player. McDavid and Darnell Nurse finish their entry-level contracts in 2018, and then Jesse Puljujärvi in 2019 (presuming he stays in the NHL this year and doesn’t slide.
While negotiations cannot begin until July, Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli and his management team are already having internal discussions about the contract, and so are McDavid’s agents, Jeff Jackson and Bobby Orr. Expect a similar timeline to fellow exceptional status recipient and first-overall pick Aaron Ekblad signing his extension with Florida; the two sides agreed in principle to a new deal early in the morning of July 1st.
Johnston was dead-on when he called extending McDavid the “biggest decision the Oilers are going to have for the next decade.”
Nick Bjugstad Out Four Weeks With Broken Hand
According to George Richards of the Miami Herald, Florida Panthers centerman Nick Bjugstad has broken his hand and will be out at least four weeks. With the season beginning in less than a week, the young Panther will miss at least a few games with the injury.
Bjugstad, 24, is one of the core of young forwards the Panthers have locked up over the past two years, joining Aleksander Barkov, Vincent Trocheck, Jonathan Huberdeau and Reilly Smith in signing at least through the 2020-21 season. These five, when joined by the likes of Aaron Ekblad, Keith Yandle and Jason Demers on the back end, will be the foundation on which the Panthers operate for the future.
After three solid seasons with Florida, Bjugstad is looking to take the next step and move from the 30-40 point two-way center to a legitimate offensive force capable of scoring 25 goals and 50 points each year. While this injury is a setback, he’ll likely only miss around 10 games and should be able to contribute after that.
The Panthers made a few cuts this morning and are now down to 26 (not including Bjugstad) in camp. The team can only take 23 with them when the season begins, meaning there are still a few tough decisions to be made.
Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Gostisbehere, Dumoulin
Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated their respective negotiation processes.
Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency, unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we continue in the Metro.
Shayne Gostisbehere (Philadelphia): Gostisbehere exploded upon the scene in 2015-16, netting 17 goals and 46 points – in just 64 games – to lead all rookies in those categories. The former Union College defenseman quickly became one of the league’s most exciting blue liners and earned a spot on the Team North America entry in the World Cup.
The agents for this year’s top remaining unsigned RFA defenders – Hampus Lindholm and Rasmus Ristolainen – are pointing to the recently-signed and massive extension signed by Aaron Ekblad as the target. Ekblad of course inked an eight-year, $60MM deal with Florida and while Lindholm and Ristolainen are probably not at the level the Panthers blue liner is, they will still likely pocket something in the vicinity of $6MM annually when they finally sign.
Chances are Gostisbehere is also going to use the Ekblad deal as a comparable. Ekblad hasn’t produced offense at the same rate as Gostisbehere (0.72 PPG for “The Ghost” versus 0.47 PPG for Ekblad) but is a former #1 overall pick and projects as a perennial Norris Trophy candidate.
It’s likely the Lindholm and Ristolainen deals will actually serve as a better framework for a new contract for Gostisbehere. Assuming they each get something close to $6MM per, it’s fair to guess the Flyers young blue liner will also land in the same neighborhood.
Brian Dumoulin (Pittsburgh): Dumoulin tallied just 16 points in 79 contests and failed to net a single goal in 2015-16. Ordinarily those numbers wouldn’t be reflective of a guy who is going to cash in but Dumoulin showed in the postseason he has more to offer the Penguins. In 24 playoff games, Dumoulin scored two goals and eight points while averaging 21:31 of ice time per game. If he can carry over that level of play into the 2016-17 regular season, Dumoulin will surely be rewarded handsomely on his next contract.
A similar comparable could be Dmitry Orlov, who eventually signed a one-year deal with Washington worth $2.57MM. Orlov has clearly been a superior offensive producer, averaging 0.30 PPG during his career while Dumoulin has averaged just 0.19. But at 25, Dumoulin is just entering his prime and as we saw in the playoffs, he is capable of producing more offense in the right role. Currently he is listed opposite Kris Letang on the Penguins top blue line pair which could result in a higher point total for Dumoulin.
Even if Dumoulin doesn’t produce much offensively, there is still plenty of value in a steady and reliable performer on the back end. If both team and player elect for a one or two-year bridge deal, an AAV close to $2.5MM would seem fair. A long-term deal buying out free agent years could take the price up north of $3MM annually.
Injury Notes: Janmark, Ekblad, Schwartz, Fabbri, Nosek
Dallas center Mattias Janmark was spotted leaving the arena today on crutches, Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News was among those to report. No update has been provided on his condition although one is expected later today.
The Stars have been bit hard by the injury bug early on with center Cody Eakin (knee), right winger Ales Hemsky (groin), and center Tyler Seguin (heel) all down already.
Janmark had a solid rookie campaign last season, scoring 15 goals and 14 assists in 73 regular season games while averaging 14:10 per game. He had a slightly bigger role in the postseason, recording two goals and three helpers in 12 contests while logging 14:41 per night in ice time.
Dallas has one of the strongest and deepest forward groups in the league but it is getting put to the test early on.
Other injury news and notes:
- Florida defenseman Aaron Ekblad was dealing with whiplash and not a concussion from a hit sustained as the World Cup of Hockey, writes George Richards of the Miami Herald. The symptoms from the neck issue mimicked those of a concussion, causing the early confusion. Ekblad was given the green light to return to practice on Wednesday.
- Blues left winger Jaden Schwartz suffered a minor upper body injury (believed to be a hand/wrist issue) in practice today, report Tom Timmermann and Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Schwartz will be held out through the weekend for precautionary reasons. From the same report, Robby Fabbri (upper body) missed his fourth straight day of practice but is believed to be close to being able to return.
- Detroit center Tomas Nosek has started skating as he continues to recover from a knee injury, notes Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press. Nosek got into six games with the Red Wings last season and will likely see time as an injury recall during the year if he doesn’t earn a spot in training camp. He sustained the injury in a collision with teammate Steve Ott in a scrimmage game.
Injury Notes: Ekblad, Backlund, Meier
After sustaining a head and neck injury during the World Cup, Aaron Ekblad has been skating in Florida for a few days now, and has officially been cleared by doctors to return to full activity. Panthers fans everywhere can now release a huge sigh of relief as arguably their best player won’t miss the start of the season.
Ekblad, still just 20-years old, signed a huge eight year, $60MM extension this summer that will kick in after the 2016-17 season. The number one pick from 2014 has already made a huge impact at the NHL level, stepping in as an 18-year old and becoming the Panthers top defender. Now joined by all-star Keith Yandle and steady-as-she-goes Jason Demers, the Florida blueline looks impressive going into the season.
If there is any downside to the World Cup and seeing the best on best right before the season, it’s this. Ekblad could have easily suffered a concussion and put his season if not his career at risk for the tournament. When coupled with the news that Matt Murray and Marian Gaborik will both miss extensive amounts of time, owners around the league may be slightly more wary of sending their players during the next World Cup.
- For the Flames, it’s been two straight days of good news, as after Sean Monahan took the ice yesterday before practice, Mikael Backlund was back at it today according to Ryan Leslie of NHL.com. While he didn’t work with the team, he will re-join practice tomorrow wearing a non-contact jersey. The Swedish forward is working his way back from a concussion suffered during the World Cup (one of a list of injured players at the tournament) that apparently wasn’t as severe as originally thought. A return before the season opens would be huge for Backlund, who played in all 82 games last season for the first time in his career. 47 points was also a career high, something that Backlund will try and build off of this year.
- Timo Meier, the ninth overall pick in last year’s draft, is still ill and will miss Friday’s game against Arizona according to Curtis Pashelka of Mercury News. While he hasn’t been ruled out of the Sunday contest in Vancouver, the team will take it slow as he nurses himself back to health. Meier had a tremendous year in junior last season, scoring 87 points in 52 games despite being traded mid season. The Swiss forward has dominated the QMJHL since he came over, including some amazing playoff performances.
Ekblad Practicing With Panthers
Evidently the upper-body injury which prevented Aaron Ekblad from playing in either of Team North America’s final two games at the World Cup of Hockey is healing just fine. According to Alain Poupart, writing for the Panthers team site on NHL.com, Ekblad is back in Florida and was on the ice today doing some individual work.
Ekblad absorbed a hit from Team Finland’s Leo Komarov during North America’s first game of the round-robin portion of the tournament and was thought to have suffered a concussion as a result. However, it was later reported by Mark Spector of Sportsnet that was not the case and in fact was simply a neck injury.
The first overall selection in the 2014 draft, Ekblad is already one of the league’s best young defensemen and is a vital cog for Florida. He had a sensational debut campaign, scoring 12 goals and 39 points in 81 games and winning the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie for the 2014-15 season. Ekblad followed that up with an equally impressive sophomore year, potting 15 goals and assisting on 21 more.
The 20-year-old blue liner has been solid in his own end too with a plus-minus rating of +30 combined over his first two NHL seasons. Although plus-minus can be unreliable in gauging the quality of defensive play, Ekblad has performed well in the puck possession department, posting a career Corsi For % of 52.9% reinforcing the notion of Ekblad’s steady play in his own zone.
Snapshots: Panthers, Girardi, Tlusty
Fresh off a team record 103-point season and just the franchise’s fifth playoff appearance, the Florida Panthers were not content to rest on their laurels. After a surprising front office shakeup highlighted by the promotions of Dale Tallon and Tom Rowe, to president of hockey operations and general manager respectively, the Panthers hit the ground running in the offseason. Looking to add puck-moving and skill to the team’s blue line, Florida dealt veteran stay-at-home defenseman Erik Gudbranson to Vancouver while acquiring Keith Yandle and Mark Pysyk in separate trades. They topped off the summer shopping spree by signing Jason Demers as a free agent.
With Jaromir Jagr, Reilly Smith, Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau and Aaron Ekblad all returning plus the club’s new additions, expectations have never been higher in the South Florida hockey market, as George Richards of the Miami Herald writes. The Panthers organization, from ownership on down is embracing those expectations.
“We all expect to win, have a winning mentality that has been introduced the past couple of years. Us younger guys have learned it’s not acceptable to miss the playoffs. That has been instilled by our veteran guys, our coaches, our organization. We’re all buying in. Everyone wants to win here, not just the players.”
“We had our best season ever, so the guys are confident and aware. They feel good about themselves and know they can get to the next level.”
- Prior to the 2015-16 campaign, New York Rangers defenseman Dan Girardi was known to be a reliable and steady defense-first blue liner on a team noted for being among the stingiest defensive clubs. The Blueshirts finished in the top five in goals allowed in each season from 2010-11 through 2014-15. Last season the club ranked 15th overall and the decline in play from Girardi and fellow defenseman Marc Staal attracted much of the blame for the drop-off. The question the Rangers had to ask themselves was whether Girardi’s regression was injury-related – he played much of the season with a cracked knee cap – or the result of years of wear-and-tear finally catching up. The team is banking on the former and Girardi himself is confident he will play at a much higher level in 2016-17, according to Steve Zipay of Newsday. The Rangers will need the 10-year vet to be much better this season if they plan to contend for a Stanley Cup.
- Avalanche head coach Jared Bednar (via the team’s Twitter account) broke the news that Jiri Tlusty, recently inked to a PTO to attend camp with the club, had failed his physical. It’s unclear at this point what caused the veteran forward to flunk the physical but it could be related to the wrist surgery he underwent in January. Obviously this is a setback for Tlusty, who coming off a disappointing season in New Jersey was likely facing an uphill battle to make Colorado’s roster. It’s feasible the two parties could look to renew the relationship once Tlusty is healthy or he could look to latch on somewhere else if the opportunity with the Avalanche closes.
Snapshots: Islanders, Las Vegas, Ekblad
News and notes around the NHL tonight:
- The New York Islanders hired former player Claude Loiselle as Hockey Operations Consultant today. Loiselle held the same position with the Arizona Coyotes last year. As a player, Loiselle netted 92G and 117A in 616 games for the Detroit Red Wings, New Jersey Devils, Toronto Maple Leafs, Quebec Nordiques, and New York Islanders. He has also held numerous management positions around the NHL after retiring, including Assistant GM positions with the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Toronto Maple Leafs. Loiselle faced criticism during his Toronto stint, however, stemming from claims of cap mismanagement and responsibility for the much-maligned David Clarkson contract.
- The Las Vegas NHL Expansion Team hired Vince Williams as a professional scout today. Normally scout hirings are not news, but the new Las Vegas team will have the almost-Herculean task of assembling a farm system from scratch. Williams previously coached the ECHL Orlando Bears before being let go in 2015.
- Team North America GM Peter Chiarelli confirmed this evening that Aaron Ekblad suffered a concussion against Finland and will not play for the remainder of the tournament. Ekblad was pulled hours before Team North America’s games last night against Team Russia with an undisclosed upper body injury. It is believed that the young defenseman suffered the concussion after being hit by Leo Komarov.
East Notes: Kessel, Daley, Pulkkinen, Mueller, Ekblad
Penguins right winger Phil Kessel and defenseman Trevor Daley are both on track in their recovery from injuries sustained in the postseason, writes Bill West of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Kessel had hand surgery back in July and isn’t expected to participate in much (if any) preseason action but anticipates he’ll be ready when the puck drops to start the season:
“I’ll obviously be out there skating in camp. I’ll progress as it goes. But I’ll be ready to start the first game of the year. … (The hand) feels a lot better now than it did last year.”
As for Daley, who broke his ankle in the Eastern Conference Finals, he has been training hard on the ankle for the last three or four weeks. He’s set to begin his first full season with Pittsburgh after being acquired from Chicago last December.
More from the Eastern Conference:
- Red Wings right winger Teemu Pulkkinen has been cleared for contact following shoulder surgery back in June, notes MLive’s Ansar Khan. Pulkkinen struggled in his first full NHL campaign last season, spending a lot of time as a healthy scratch. He got into just 36 games, recording six goals and six assists, a disappointment considering he had scored just over a point per game in the AHL. The 24 year old is hoping to be able to get into a couple of games towards the end of the preseason with the hoping of being available for Detroit’s season opener. His recovery appears to be well ahead of schedule as he was originally expected to miss 4-6 months.
- Forward Peter Mueller, who is attending training camp on a PTO, is open to signing an AHL contract, reports WEEI’s DJ Bean. The willingness to play in the minors hasn’t always been there as two years ago Mueller requested his release after training camp with St. Louis, who had planned to send him to their AHL affiliate. Last season, Mueller played with Malmo of the SHL, picking up 13 goals and 12 assists in 43 games. His positional versatility could come in handy for the Bruins as Mueller has spent time at all three forward positions in recent years.
- The Panthers have decided to bring Aaron Ekblad back to Florida, which all but confirms that he will miss the remainder of the World Cup of Hockey, tweets Harvey Fialkov of the Sun Sentinel. Ekblad, who was on Team North America, missed Monday’s game due to an upper body injury. Still with North America’s back end, Columbus defenseman Ryan Murray missed practice today but is expected to play tomorrow vs Sweden, reports ESPN’s Craig Custance.