Expansion Primer: Chicago Blackhawks
Over the last few weeks, we have been breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.
The last time the Blackhawks had to face an expansion draft, the outcome ended up in the news long before the Golden Knights announced their pick. Trevor van Riemsdyk would be left unprotected, but Vegas would also agree to take on Marcus Kruger‘s remaining contract. Though it had to wait until after Chicago paid his signing bonus, Kruger would eventually end up with the Golden Knights in exchange for “future considerations.” Vegas would flip both Kruger and van Riemsdyk to Carolina, essentially getting second and fifth-round picks for just a tiny bit of salary retention. Those kinds of moves were part of the brilliant strategy devised by Vegas, but won’t be so easy to pull off this time around.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards:
Jonathan Toews (NMC), Patrick Kane (NMC), Alex DeBrincat, Brett Connolly, Dylan Strome, David Kampf, Ryan Carpenter, Adam Gaudette, Josh Dickinson, Brandon Hagel, Henrik Borgstrom
Defense:
Duncan Keith, Calvin de Haan, Connor Murphy, Nikita Zadorov, Riley Stillman
Goalies:
Collin Delia, Malcolm Subban, Kevin Lankinen
Notable Unrestricted Free Agents
Vinnie Hinostroza, Brandon Pirri, Anton Lindholm
Notable Exemptions
Dominik Kubalik, Pius Suter, Philipp Kurashev, Kirby Dach, Alexander Nylander, Ian Mitchell, Adam Boqvist, Wyatt Kalynuk, Nicolas Beaudin
Key Decisions
This time in Chicago, the decisions to make are actually relatively easy. One of the biggest questions a few months ago would have been whether Nylander deserved protection five years after being selected eighth overall by the Buffalo Sabres. That question now has an easy answer, as the 23-year-old winger is exempt because he missed this entire season following knee surgery. Because his first two years post-draft were spent mostly at the AHL level, they don’t count toward his eligibility and thus he has just two years of professional experience under his belt, at least according to the expansion rules. He’s exempt, and Chicago fans can argue over whether or not he deserves a roster spot next season.
Toews, Kane and DeBrincat are obvious choices for protection. Now that the captain is back skating, there’s no need to talk about waiving his no-movement clause for the Blackhawks in order for them to protect an extra player. Strome, even though he is coming off a terrible season, has too high a ceiling to be left exposed to Seattle. Hagel was about as big of a bright spot as they had in Chicago this season, adding 24 points while seemingly never running out of energy. The 22-year-old likely gets protected. Borgstrom already agreed to a two-year deal to return to North America, so Chicago isn’t going to let the first-round pick get selected.
That leaves two spots for the group of Connolly, Kampf, and Gaudette, with the odd man out potentially heading to Seattle. A $3.5MM cap hit seems like a ridiculous price for the Connolly that scored just three goals in 31 games last season, but what about the one that had 71 over his previous 286 (a 20-goal 82-game pace). Sure, if Seattle took him off Chicago’s hands it wouldn’t be the end of the world, but at just 29 there is real bounce-back potential there. Kampf has never shown an ability to score at that rate, with just 17 goals over his four seasons with the Blackhawks. That’s not to say he’s useless, but he’ll be an RFA this summer and scored just a single goal in 56 games this season.
Gaudette is the most interesting case here, after arriving midseason in a trade from the Vancouver Canucks. The 24-year-old looked like he was ready to breakout in 2019-20 when he scored 12 goals and 33 points in 59 games, but he completely fell apart in the playoffs and then couldn’t find his game at all this season. He’ll also be an RFA this summer, and it’s not really clear how the Blackhawks plan to use the 2018 Hobey Baker winner. There is at least an argument to be made for Kampf’s defensive consistency over Gaudette’s offensive potential, even if it would have seemed crazy a year ago.
On defense, things really just boil down to the Keith situation. It appears a trade is likely, with the Kraken one of the preferred destinations thanks to its proximity to his hometown. Whether a deal is officially made before the draft (other teams including the Edmonton Oilers are also involved in the discussions) or Keith simply agrees to waive his no-movement clause, it doesn’t appear as though he’ll be protected by the Blackhawks.
That leaves three spots for four defensemen, with Murphy obviously getting one of them. Zadorov and de Haan could easily be the other choices, though perhaps Stillman could also be a factor if the team believes they’ve locked up real value when he signed a three-year, $4.05MM deal in April. When it was signed, GM Stan Bowman noted that Stillman’s development was “something we look forward to seeing firsthand,” suggesting that perhaps they believe he can be a real core piece moving forward. If that’s the case, Zadorov or de Haan could be exposed simply to open up cap space and minutes for their other young defensemen.
In net, it really comes down to who the organization believes has the highest ceiling. All three netminders played this season, all three will be unrestricted free agents after next. Lankinen came back to earth after an outstanding first half, finishing with a .909 save percentage in 37 games. He’s the leading candidate for protection, but it seems unlikely that any of them would be in danger of selection anyway.
Projected Protection List
F Jonathan Toews
F Patrick Kane
F Alex DeBrincat
F Dylan Strome
F Adam Gaudette
F Brandon Hagel
F Henrik Borgstrom
D Connor Murphy
D Nikita Zadorov
D Riley Stillman
*Assuming that Keith is traded or waives his no-movement clause before the draft
Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist
When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined. Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined. In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.
Forwards (2): Brett Connolly, Ryan Carpenter
Defensemen (2): Duncan Keith, Calvin de Haan
Even if the team trades Keith ahead of the draft, leaving de Haan (or Stillman) exposed would fill their defensive requirements. The exposure requirements could also help the decision on Connolly, as he’s one of only a handful that currently meets the games played threshold and are signed through next season. Gaudette or Kampf, alternatively, would require new deals to fill that forward requirement.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag
The Stanley Cup could be awarded this evening and the offseason is already in full swing around the NHL. We’re just a few weeks away from the Seattle Kraken selecting their expansion roster and the 2021 draft class finding out which team will choose them. Free agency will soon follow and teams will start preparing for the 2021-22 season, which is just a few months away thanks to the altered sports calendar.
With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag. If you missed the last one, it was broken into two pieces. In the first part, Brian La Rose gave his thoughts on Philadelphia’s defense corps, the future of Jack Eichel and Rasmus Ristolainen in Buffalo, and whether or not the Maple Leafs made a mistake when they installed Kyle Dubas as general manager. In the second, he suggested some teams that may need to complete a side deal with the Kraken, examined some interesting free agent targets, and gave his thoughts on the Dougie Hamilton market.
You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below.
Seattle Kraken Announce Preseason Schedule
The Seattle Kraken will play their first game as part of the NHL against the Vancouver Canucks on September 26, 2021. The match will be a preseason contest held at Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena in Washington. The team has announced a full six-game preseason schedule that will give the world a few looks at the Kraken before they arrive at Climate Pledge Arena to open the regular season.
After that first game against the Canucks, the Kraken will hit the road to play in Edmonton and Calgary, before holding two other “home” games. October 1 will see the Oilers and Kraken play at Angel of the Winds Arena in Everett, Washington, while the Flames will battle the new club on October 2 at the accesso ShoWare Center in Kent. Those three arenas host the Spokane Chiefs, Everett Silvertips and Seattle Thunderbirds of the WHL, giving junior hockey fans in the pacific northwest a chance to see the new pro club up close.
Seattle’s home arena is still on track to be open for the first home game of the 2021-22 season, but that schedule has still not been officially released. Kraken CEO Tod Leiweke released a short statement showing his excitement for the preseason action:
The arena is on track to host our first regular-season home game in mid-October, but we have made the decision to play our three inaugural preseason games at three outstanding local arenas. This gives us an opportunity to partner with the WHL teams, celebrate hockey across our region and grow this beautiful game. We couldn’t be more excited for these games and then to open Climate Pledge Arena.
In less than two weeks’ time, the Kraken will select their inaugural roster during the July 21 expansion draft. They will also receive a short window just before the draft in which they are allowed to speak with pending unrestricted free agents. If they sign a player, it would count as their selection from his former team.
Joel Bouchard Hired By Anaheim Ducks
The Anaheim Ducks have announced a new AHL coach, hiring Joel Bouchard to lead the San Diego Gulls. Bouchard replaces the outgoing Kevin Dineen, who took over as Gulls head coach when Dallas Eakins was promoted to the NHL club. Ducks GM Bob Murray released a statement on the change:
We want to thank Kevin Dineen for all he contributed the last two seasons. He was key in maintaining a winning environment in San Diego, including a difficult season during the pandemic.
The opportunity to bring in Joel Bouchard as head coach of our American Hockey League club was something that we could not pass up. Joel has a strong track record coaching and developing players at the professional, junior and international level. This is the primary focus for us, and Joel fits the bill perfectly.
Bouchard’s path to the NHL was blocked in Montreal, where he had served as head coach of the Laval Rocket the last three years. Dominique Ducharme took over the Canadiens midseason and led them to the Stanley Cup Finals, while even assistants Luke Richardson and Alexandre Burrows look like potential future head coaches (in fact, Eric Engels of Sportsnet suggests that Burrows could even be the next head coach of the Rocket).
That path isn’t so crowded in the Ducks organization, given how little success Eakins has had so far. The Ducks are 46-63-18 under his watch, which could lead to a potential opportunity for a minor league coach like Bouchard at some point. The 47-year-old was the head coach of the Blainville-Boisbriand Armada of the QMJHL for four seasons before arriving in Laval, taking the junior squad to the league championship twice in a row (but losing both). A veteran of 364 NHL games as a player, Bouchard is still waiting for his first opportunity as a coach at that level.
Corey Perry Not Considering Retirement
After two straight Stanley Cup Finals appearances, Corey Perry isn’t ready to hang up his skates. The veteran forward explained at his end-of-year press availability that he has no intentions of retiring. He didn’t stop there though, explaining that he would love to return to the Montreal Canadiens if possible.
Yes I intend to play hockey next year. I think there is still a lot of good hockey left in me. I would love to come back here and experience Montreal for being Montreal. It was a weird year with family not being here and all that. But definitely, to people out there looking at Montreal as a spot to land and come play, it’s been everything that you could imagine. It’s a first class organization and everything they do here is done with a purpose. I really enjoyed my time.
Perry, 36, settled for close to a league-minimum contract with the Canadiens this season, earning just $750K with no performance bonuses. That was of course in addition to the $2MM he earned from an Anaheim Ducks buyout, something he’ll collect again next season and the year after that. While many wrote him off, Perry seemed rejuvenated by the young core in Montreal, scoring 21 points in 49 games during the regular season and becoming a force for the team in the playoffs.
If he wants to return to Montreal, it seems like an easy contract to work out for the Canadiens, who should still have a spot for him in the bottom-six. It’s not like he’ll be demanding a huge raise at this point in his career and given that Joel Armia, Phillip Danault, Eric Staal, and Tomas Tatar are all pending unrestricted free agents, there will be roster spots to fill.
Still, perhaps there will be other teams that come calling on Perry if he makes it to free agency next month. Those clubs that can’t seem to get over the playoff hump could potentially still see the 2007 Stanley Cup champion as a difference-maker in the postseason. Perry does have 167 career playoff games, where he has scored 108 points including ten game-winning goals.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
New Jersey Devils Sign Jonas Siegenthaler
The New Jersey Devils have signed Jonas Siegenthaler to a two-year contract extension that will carry an average annual value of $1.125MM. Siegenthaler will earn $1.05MM in 2021-22 and $1.2MM in 2022-23.
Siegenthaler, 24, not only gets a nice raise from the $800K he earned in 2020-21, but also gets some contract security in the form of a two-year deal. That’s important at this stage of his career when he is still just trying to establish himself as a full-time player at the NHL level.
Originally selected by the Washington Capitals in the second round of the 2015 draft, Siegenthaler came to New Jersey via trade earlier this year. He played just eight games for the Devils down the stretch but could be in line for a much bigger role next season.
New Jersey was always likely to protect Siegenthaler in the expansion draft, given the lack of real other candidates on defense, but with this two-year deal in hand, they will surely be using one of three defense spots on him. Moving forward, he’ll be expected to be more than just a part-time contributor, though the price is still reasonable enough for a bottom-pair option if that’s where he ends up. In 105 career games, Siegenthaler has recorded 13 points.
New York Rangers Agree To Terms With Brett Howden
The New York Rangers have agreed to terms with restricted free agent Brett Howden on a one-year contract. Howden was not eligible for salary arbitration. The one-way contract is worth $885K, according to Dan Rosen of NHL.com.
An extension for Howden at this point is less about what he can do for the Rangers lineup and more about what he means for the team’s expansion strategy. Getting him under contract means that the 23-year-old can serve as one of the exposure requirements for the upcoming draft, though that doesn’t guarantee that Seattle will be interested. The young forward was once an up-and-coming middle-six center with a bright future, but has played himself down and out of the Rangers lineup with an inconsistent approach. In 42 games this season he scored just a single goal, taking his total to 16 in 178 career games.
Sometimes, poor shooting luck is responsible for down years like the one Howden just experienced, and it is true that his 3% shooting percentage will likely be the lowest of his career. But he also posted dreadful possession metrics across the board, still couldn’t win a faceoff and generated just 54 shot attempts in 42 games. There’s a reason why his average ice time dropped to a career-low 12:34.
Despite all those struggles though, the fact that he comes with a first-round draft pedigree is still only 23 and did have a rather strong rookie season in 2018-19 does still make him an interesting bet for the Kraken or even another team. If there is even a chance that they can unlock the player that helped Team Canada to a World Junior gold medal in 2018, or the one who captained the Moose Jaw Warriors on a deep WHL playoff run, he could still be a valuable asset.
Tampa Bay Lightning Face Salary Cap Crunch
Much has been made over the Tampa Bay Lightning’s usage of LTIR loopholes this season, especially after winger Nikita Kucherov returned from injury to lead the team in scoring en route to a second-straight championship. But with Tampa Bay advantageously using the expiring contracts of both Marian Gaborik and Anders Nilsson to add to their LTIR relief, they won’t have the opportunity next season to do the same.
The Lightning currently sit $3.52MM over the $81.5MM Upper Limit, and that’s with an already depleted roster. There are multiple takeaways from this.
For one, it’s unlikely that any notable pending Lightning unrestricted free agent re-signs with the team. As their priority stands to clear salary, it’s becoming more and more apparent that the 2021-22 Tampa Bay Lightning squad won’t have the experienced depth of years past. While they did well to extend certain depth pieces like Patrick Maroon on cheap, multi-year deals into next season, others like Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow won’t be able to fit under the flat salary cap.
Conversely, it’s likely that the Lightning will rely even more on young, in-house depth to fill out the roster around their core pieces. They’ll need repeat performances from players like Ross Colton and steps forward from players like Mathieu Joseph and Alex Barre-Boulet in order to generate any level of depth scoring.
But what really sticks out is that aforementioned $3.52MM number. That’s only taking 16 skaters and one goaltender into account, meaning that the Bolts will need to clear multiple contracts in order to be cap-compliant and ice a full roster on opening night. It’s likely that two out of the trio of Yanni Gourde, Tyler Johnson, and Alex Killorn will have to be moved this offseason in order to fit salary constraints. Tampa probably prefers it to be the first two names on that list, as Killorn has been an indelible piece in their top-six in recent years.
There are options for the Bolts with the expansion draft looming. While moving any of those three players can be somewhat challenging due to their no-trade clauses, the Lightning can ship an additional asset to Seattle via trade to ensure that the Kraken will take a specific player at the draft. It might be a necessary solution, no matter how tough to swallow it is so soon after a Stanley Cup win.
All contract information is via CapFriendly.
Poll: Where Will Vladimir Tarasenko Be Traded?
While most of the hockey world was focusing on last night’s Game 5 and the ensuing Cup-clinching victory by the Tampa Bay Lightning, there was one large story brewing in St. Louis. The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford was reporting that Blues winger Vladimir Tarasenko had requested a trade from the club earlier in the offseason. While Tarasenko trade rumors were nothing new this offseason, the declaration of a trade request definitely put the writing on the wall for his tenure in Missouri.
With more clarity coming today on the Tarasenko situation, he’s reportedly frustrated on how the Blues organization has handled his shoulder surgeries and the corresponding recoveries. While Rutherford’s reporting claims that Tarasenko now comes with a clean bill of health, the uncertainty surrounding his post-injury ceiling has got to be a bit of a red flag for teams interested.
Speaking of teams interested, Rutherford notes that both the New York Rangers and New York Islanders, as well as the Edmonton Oilers are all teams who are potential suitors.
The Oilers seem like the most natural fit. After all, their struggles to find legitimate linemates for Connor McDavid in the past have been well-documented. With the Oilers getting some cap space to work with this offseason, they’ve been active in most trade rumors. Tarasenko’s no different. If the Oilers can swing a deal, it would likely consist of a defense prospect as well as a relatively high draft pick, as well as a roster player. Tarasenko would inevitably play on McDavid’s right wing, likely with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or potentially Jesse Puljujarvi on his off-wing flanking them on the left.
The Islanders also stand as a natural fit for the Russian winger, as the team has lacked scoring punch in recent seasons to push them over the top. However, salary is a concern for the cap-strapped Islanders, who also have Adam Pelech and Anthony Beauvillier to sign to contracts this offseason. The Rangers also are an interesting idea, considering Tarasenko would get the opportunity to play with countryman Artemi Panarin.
So, PHR readers, we ask you – where do you think Vladimir Tarasenko ends up after all of this? Vote below!
Where will Vladimir Tarasenko be traded to?
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Other (comment below!) 37% (1,004)
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New York Rangers 28% (765)
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Edmonton Oilers 18% (505)
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New York Islanders 17% (473)
Total votes: 2,747
Mobile users, click here to vote!
Free Agent Focus: Montreal Canadiens
Free agency is now just under a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up. There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. The Montreal Canadiens come bitterly into the offseason after a Stanley Cup Final loss, but a large amount of unrestricted free agents mean it’s a pivotal time for the franchise.
Key Restricted Free Agents
F Artturi Lehkonen – An up-and-down season ended strongly for the first Finnish Canadiens RFA. While in part due to the shortened season, Lehkonen had his worst offensive season to date, failing to post either 10 goals or 20 points for the first time in his five-year NHL career. He didn’t fare too well under either Claude Julien or Dominique Ducharme, at least in the regular season. It resulted in the lowest usage of his career, being played just 13:25 minutes per game. However, when the opportunity arose during their playoff run, Lehkonen rose to the challenge. Taking the left-wing spot with Phillip Danault and Brendan Gallagher, Lehkonen helped formed a line that shut down opponents’ top players for the majority of the playoffs. He added an overtime series winner to boot, as one of his three playoff goals sent Montreal to the Stanley Cup Final. Yet the reality stands that Lehkonen was inconsistent at best overall this season, and his next deal will likely reflect that. A shorter-term deal should be expected for a depth player like Lehkonen.
F Jesperi Kotkaniemi – It’s hard to know what to make of Montreal’s 2018 top draft pick at this stage in his career. Coming off of his entry-level deal, Kotkaniemi has broken expectations during each of his playoffs runs, totaling nine goals and 12 points in 29 games. Yet Kotkaniemi didn’t even score that amount in a full 56-game campaign this year, potting only five goals. While the young Finnish center has oozed potential during Montreal’s playoff appearances, he hasn’t been able to perform at the same level over the course of his regular seasons. With all that being said, it’s extremely unlikely that general manager Marc Bergevin commits to Kotkaniemi long-term this offseason. At just 21 years old, Kotkaniemi still has four more seasons of RFA eligibility. It’s impossible to imagine that Montreal would give him a deal longer than that, instead allowing Kotkaniemi to live up to his potential over the course of a lower-stakes bridge deal.
Other RFAs: F Joseph Blandisi, F Michael Pezzetta, F Ryan Poehling, F Jacob Lucchini, D Otto Leskinen, D Cale Fleury, G Michael McNiven
Key Unrestricted Free Agents
F Phillip Danault – Danault had largely been regarded as one of the more underrated defensive centers in the NHL over the past few seasons. That’s no longer the case. Danault’s shot-suppressing expertise was on full display throughout the regular season and playoffs. And while his offense took a backseat in the playoffs with just one goal and four points in 22 contests, he’s scored 124 points in 205 games over his past three seasons. The offense will come back next season if history is any indicator. It’s why Danault is expected to get a significant raise on his $3.083MM cap hit. With Danault possibly receiving offers over $5MM and even $6MM on the open market, Montreal will have to shell out the cash to retain their Quebec-born top-six center.
F Tomas Tatar – Montreal’s usage of Tatar this season, especially in the playoffs, was puzzling to many. It was just last year where Tatar had emerged to lead the Habs in scoring with 61 points in just 68 games. While Tatar was limited to just 30 points in 50 games this year, his line with Danault and Gallagher had performed extremely well from a possession standpoint. Even through the beginning of their first-round series against the Toronto Maple Leafs, Tatar’s line had succeeded at silencing Toronto’s top talent. Yet Tatar soon found himself scratched for the rest of the playoff run, with Lehkonen taking his role on that line. It’s hard to expect that Montreal will want to retain Tatar at this point, especially with outside teams knowing what they can get out of him. Expect Tatar to be in a top-six role again next season — just not with Montreal.
Other UFAs: F Corey Perry, F Joel Armia, F Eric Staal, F Michael Frolik, F Jordan Weal, F Alex Belzile, D Jonathon Merrill, D Erik Gustafsson, D Gustav Olofsson, G Charlie Lindgren
Projected Cap Space
While Montreal sits with a respectable $14.7MM in cap space, the team has a lot of expiring talent. Retaining the expected pieces and building on this roster’s weaknesses will likely bring Bergevin and Montreal into a tricky dance with the salary cap yet again next season. And while no drastic moves are expected from this year’s Stanley Cup finalist, it might be challenging for Montreal to navigate the free-agent waters after they’ve re-signed key pieces. However, Montreal’s camaraderie and team strength were on full display this season. It’s the type of performance that incentivizes players to take pay cuts to play for a winner, something that may very well be a reality for Montreal this offseason.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.