Offseason Keys: Nashville Predators
The offseason is now in full swing with the draft now complete and free agency on the horizon. What storylines lie ahead around the league in the weeks to come? Our Offseason Keys series continues with a look at the Nashville Predators.
After making it to the Stanley Cup Final back in 2017, the Predators were hoping to take that final step and take home the title in 2017-18. However, despite some midseason additions including center Kyle Turris, Nashville instead went down in the second round at the hands of Winnipeg. With most of the team already signed for next season, Nashville’s offseason keys revolve decisions regarding their own players.
Ellis Extension
The Preds have reaped the benefits of some of their top defensemen playing for below-market value. Among those players is Ryan Ellis who is set to enter the final year of his deal that pays $3.5MM in cash with just a $2.5MM cap hit. Suffice it to say, his next contract is going to cost a whole lot more.
While he missed 38 games due to injury this past season, the 27-year-old still managed to put up an impressive 32 points, tying the second-most of his career. He also has logged more than 23 minutes a night in each of the last two seasons, averages that blueliners on the top pairing often receive. Accordingly, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Ellis seek a new deal that’s commensurate with that of a top pairing defender even though he ranked fourth on the team in ice time in 2017-18.
With the jump in his role in recent years and the expected increase in the salary cap, Ellis could push for a deal in the $7MM per season range. Fortunately for Nashville, both Roman Josi ($4MM) and Mattias Ekholm ($3.75MM) are still on below-market deals so they should be able to fit that into their payroll structure without too much difficulty. GM David Poile called this extension Nashville’s biggest priority for the offseason so expect them to try to get something done as soon as possible; no deal can be officially announced until July 1st.
Decisions In Goal
Pekka Rinne is coming off a solid regular season but an ugly showing in the playoffs. Between that and his age (35), some are wondering how much longer he’s going to be the starter in Nashville. He is entering the final year of his contract in 2018-19 with a $7MM cap hit and salary. They’ll have to decide whether or not to look into an extension or whether to ride out 2018-19 with him as the starter and then reassess the situation next offseason.
Then there’s backup Jusse Saros. He is coming off of his entry-level contract and posted a career-best .925 SV% in 26 games while faring well in relief action during the postseason. He has the potential to be a starter but at just 5’11, he’s undersized for the position which could call into question his long-term viability to play that role.
From there, he could sign a couple of different contracts. It would make sense for Nashville to push for a bridge deal (two or three years) that would give them some stability at the position with Rinne’s uncertain future. However, from Saros’ perspective, a one-year pact may make more sense as that would line up his next trip in restricted free agency with Rinne becoming a UFA while he’d also have arbitration rights at that time. If they plan to make the 23-year-old the starter beginning in 2019-20, he’d have more leverage for a bigger deal at that time. Second contracts for backup goalies usually aren’t a big deal but this is an interesting case to keep tabs on.
Re-Sign Hartman
One of Nashville’s in-season additions was winger Ryan Hartman, who the Preds dealt their first-round pick in the draft (27th overall). The move didn’t exactly pan out as well as they may have hoped for. While he played a regular role down the stretch, his playing time diminished in the postseason to less than 12 minutes per night while being a healthy scratch four times as well.
The 23-year-old has completed his entry-level deal and while things didn’t go overly well with Nashville, he is still coming off of his second straight 31-point season (with most of his 2017-18 points coming with Chicago). That should have him in line for a raise on the $833K he earned in each of the past two seasons.
Considering how he fared with his new team, a long-term deal is out of the question and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the two sides work towards a one-year pact, especially since Hartman’s availability to start next season is in question following shoulder surgery last month. Given what they gave up for him, it’s clear that Nashville sees him as part of their long-term future but a ‘prove it’ contract makes the most sense for them this summer.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Scott Hartnell Intends To Play An 18th Season
While the Nashville Predators told Scott Hartnell nearly three weeks ago that they will not bring him back, that didn’t mean the 17-year veteran’s career is over. While he admitted at the time that he would be OK if his career ended, TSN’s Frank Seravalli reports that Hartnell has indicated that he’s all in and plans to play an 18th season in the NHL next year. The unrestricted free agent just needs to find a new team now.
The veteran forward signed a one-year, $1MM deal to return to Nashville last season after being bought out by the Columbus Blue Jackets. Hartnell had a solid campaign acting as a bottom-six forward for the team who can incite energy and hustle in his play. No longer a constant 20-goal scorer, he posted 13 goals for a second year in a row to go with 24 points in 62 games this season.
Due to Nashville’s depth at forward and the youth they are bringing in, Hartnell was no longer a logical option there, but there should be other teams on the lookout for a veteran bottom-six forward. Even though he only played in four games for the Predators in the playoffs, he showed his value against the Winnipeg Jets. In three games, he produced eight hits and was instrumental in helping the Predators to a Game 4 victory. Regardless, he shouldn’t have too much trouble finding another year of work.
2018 Draft Results By Team
The 2018 NHL Entry Draft is now complete. Check out how each team did with accruing talent and filling needs with each of their selections this weekend:
Anaheim Ducks
1-23. F Isac Lundestrom, Lulea (SHL)
2-54. F Benoit-Olivier Groulx, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL)
3-79. F Blake McLaughlin, Chicago Steel (USHL)
3-84. G Lukas Dostal, HC Kometa Brno (Czech Republic-Jr.)
4-116. F Jack Perbix, Elk River HS (USHS)
5-147. G Roman Durny, Des Moines Buccaneers (USHL)
6-178. D Hunter Drew, Charlottetown Islanders (QMJHL)
Arizona Coyotes
1-5. F Barrett Hayton, Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds (OHL)
2-55. D Kevin Bahl, Ottawa 67’s (OHL)
3-65. F Jan Jenik, HC Benatky nad Jizerou (Czech Republic-2)
3-73. D Ty Emberson, U.S. National Development Program (USHL)
4-114. G Ivan Prosvetov, Youngstown Phantoms (USHL)
5-142. D Mitchell Callahan, Central Illinois Flying Aces (USHL)
5-145. D Dennis Busby, Flint Firebirds (OHL)
6-158. G David Tendeck, Vancouver Giants (WHL)
7-189. F Liam Kirk, Sheffield Steelers (England)
Boston Bruins
2-57. D Axel Andersson, Djurgardens IF (SuperElit)
3-77. F Jakub Lauko, Pirati Chomutov (Czech Republic)
4-119. F Curtis Hall, Youngstown Phantoms (USHL)
6-181. D Dustyn McFaul, Pickering Panthers (OJHL)
7-212. F Pavel Shen, Mamonty Yugry (MHL)
Buffalo Sabres
1-1. D Rasmus Dahlin, Frolunda HC (SHL)
2-32. D Mattias Samuelsson, U.S. National Development Program (USHL)
4-94. F Matej Pekar, Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL)
4-117. D Linus Lindstrand Kronholm, Malmo Redhawks (SuperElit)
5-125. D Miska Kuukonen, Ilves (Jr.-Liiga)
7-187. D William Worge Kreu, Linkoping (SuperElit)
Calgary Flames
3-105. F Martin Pospisil, Sioux City Musketeers (USHL)
3-108. F Demetrios Koumontzis, Edina HS (USHS)
4-122. F Milos Roman, Vancouver Giants (WHL)
6-167. F Mathias Emilio Pettersen, Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL)
7-198. F Dmitri Zavgorodny, Rimouski Oceanic (QMJHL)
Carolina Hurricanes
1-2. F Andrei Svechnikov, Barrie Colts (OHL)
2-42. F Jack Drury, Waterloo Blackhawks (USHL)
4-96. F Luke Henman, Blainville-Boisbriand Armada (QMJHL)
4-104. F Lenni Killinen, Espoo Blues (Jr.-Liiga)
6-166. D Jesper Sellgren, MODO (Allsveskan)
7-197. G Jake Kucharski, Des Moines Buccaneers (USHL)
Chicago Blackhawks
1-8. D Adam Boqvist, Brynas IF Gavle (SHL)
1-27. D Nicolas Beaudin, Drummondville Voltigeurs (QMJHL)
3-69. F Jake Wise, U.S. National Development Program (USHL)
3-74. F Niklas Nordgren, HIFK Helsinki (Jr.-Liiga)
4-120. F Philipp Kurashev, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL)
5-139. F Mikael Hakkarainen, Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL)
6-162. G Alexis Gravel, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL)
7-193. F Josiah Slavin, Lincoln Stars (USHL)
Colorado Avalanche
1-16. F Martin Kaut, Dynamo Pardubice (Czech Republic)
3-64. G Justus Annunen, Karpat (Jr.-Liiga)
3-78. F Sampo Ranta, Sioux City Musketeers (USHL)
4-109. F Tyler Weiss, U.S. National Development Program (USHL)
5-140. F Brandon Saigeon, Hamilton Bulldogs (OHL)
5-146. D Danila Zhuravlyov, Irbis Kazan (MHL)
6-171. F Nikolai Kovalenko, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl (MHL)
7-202. G Shamil Shmakov, Sibirskie Snaipery Novosibirsk (MHL)Read more
Morning Notes: Trotz, Predators, Saints
The future is still cloudy for reigning Stanley Cup Champion head coach Barry Trotz, as no one has a clear read on where he will go next. Trotz resigned from the Washington Capitals after the two sides couldn’t agree on a salary increase, and now there is rampant speculation that he will join the New York Islanders under Lou Lamoriello. Nothing under Lamoriello though is ever certain until a press release is given out—and even those can be misleading at times—which is why Arthur Staple of The Athletic (subscription required) can’t say for sure what’s about to happen.
Staple writes that some of his sources around the league believe Trotz has already agreed to come on board with the Islanders for what would likely be a five-year deal worth around $25MM, but knows Lamoriello well enough to not report any guarantees. Staple writes that there was “stony silence” on Wednesday from everyone involved. The Islanders fired head coach Doug Weight quickly after Lamoriello took control of the hockey operations, and are one of only two (including Washington) vacancies around the league.
*Moments after posting this, both Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet and Darren Dreger of TSN reported that the Islanders and Trotz were closing in on a deal.
- The Nashville Predators have shuffled around some people in the organization, promoting Tom Nolan to Chief Amateur Scout in the wake of Jeff Kealty being bumped up from that position to Assistant General Manager. The team has also moved Stan Drulia from the coaching side of the Milwaukee Admirals to the scouting division within the Predators front office. All of these moves were caused by long-time AGM Paul Fenton accepting a role in Minnesota, allowing an opportunity to move everyone up a step on the executive ladder. Nolan has been credited with finding a ton of the Predators top players, with the team release naming Ryan Ellis, Kevin Fiala, Colton Sissons, Eeli Tolvanen, Viktor Arvidsson and Juuse Saros as players drafted as a direct result of his work. He’ll try again tomorrow night when the Predators will have to wait until the third round to make a selection.
- The Dubuque Fighting Saints of the USHL have been purchased by a group of former and current NHL players and coaches. Names like Johnny Gaudreau, Zemgus Girgensons, Dan Bylsma and Peter Luukko have surfaced from the sale, a move that several other former players have done in various junior leagues around the world. Gaudreau played one season for the Saints in 2010-11, scoring 72 points in 60 games and winning the league championship before heading to Boston College.
Nashville Predators Will Not Trade P.K. Subban
Somehow P.K. Subban is always the subject of trade rumors. Despite another good season for the Nashville Predators that has him as a finalist for the Norris Trophy, there has still been speculation about whether the team would move on from their superstar defenseman, mostly to ensure enough cap room to lock up Ryan Ellis before he becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2019. GM David Poile spoke with The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun (subscription required), and explained how silly any Subban rumors are:
You see tweets from different places, but, that’s not happening.
Nobody has even called me about him. P.K. played terrific this year. He played really well. He’s a really good player. He’s one of the three candidates for the Norris Trophy. I really don’t know where this comes from.
If you’re feeling like you’ve heard this before, that’s because Montreal Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin made similar comments before shipping Subban out to Nashville in exchange for Shea Weber in the summer of 2016. Even with that history though it doesn’t seem like the 29-year old defenseman is on the way out. Subban is a huge part of the Predators success, logging big minutes and providing a huge offensive boost from the blue line. Even with Ellis needing a new contract and Roman Josi up for an extension after that, there’s little doubt Subban will begin the 2018-19 season in Nashville.
In fact, it seems likely that Subban will play out the rest of his contract with the Predators. Signed for just four more years, the Norris-caliber defenseman will be just 32 when his current mega-deal expires and should still be an effective player. Unless his performance takes a sharp downward turn, or some off-ice incident prompts a move, his $9MM cap hit doesn’t seem impossible for Nashville to hold on to. Poile has done an excellent job locking up his homegrown talent to reasonable contracts, with players like Viktor Arvidsson and Mattias Ekholm still set to earn way less than market value for the next several years. The team will have close to $13MM in cap space this summer depending on where the upper limit lands, and plenty of room to extend Ellis and Josi when the time comes.
Western Notes: Niederreiter, Dumba, Golden Knights, Gusev
The Minnesota Wild were expected to shake things up after another disappointing playoff run and made that clear when they replaced general manager Chuck Fletcher with Paul Fenton. One forgets that Fenton as the assistant to David Poile in Nashville for the past 20 years, has been involved in many blockbuster trades in that time. So, don’t be surprised to see the team make several big moves this offseason.
The Athletic’s Mike Russo (subscription required) delves into several potential trade candidates and what the chances are that Fenton might move them. At the top of the list is winger Nino Niederreiter, who might be the perfect trade candidate. After three 20-goal seasons, Niederreiter came up two goals short this year, but also missed 19 games this year with a high ankle sprain and a broken fibula. Unfortunately, Niederreiter also has struggled in the playoffs recently combining for just one assist in 10 playoff games over the past two seasons. However, the fact that he’s 25 years old and is locked in for another four years at $5.25MM AAV could make him the team’s biggest trade chip. Throw in the fact that Jason Zucker and Zach Parise are listed as the top two left wings on the team, he is expendable.
While he analyzes a number of trade candidates in the article, Russo suggests that despite going well out of their way to protect Mathew Dumba at the expansion draft last season (that cost them Erik Haula and Alex Tuch), Dumba rewarded the team with a career highs in goals and assists with 14 goals and 36 assists. Now a restricted free agent, the team must decide whether Dumba is worth a long-term deal and if not, the Wild might want to move him while his value is high.
- With the team’s success this year, Vegas Golden Knights general manager George McPhee refers to their 2017 first-round picks, Cody Glass, Nick Suzuki and Erik Brannstrom as “long shots” to making the team next season, according to SinBinVegas. If one of those picks were to make the Golden Knights roster out of training camp, they would have to be “really, really good.” McPhee also said he doesn’t believe teenagers belong in the NHL and the team must take more responsibility to develop their prospects properly. “Smartest thing we can do is take our time and develop them,” McPhee said.
- Sticking with the Vegas Golden Knights, David Schoen of the Las Vegas Review-Journal reports that McPhee said the team continues to pursue Russian winger Nikita Gusev, who the team acquired in an expansion-day deal with the Tampa Bay Lightning last year. The 25-year-old has scored 46 goals and tallied 133 points over the past two seasons in the KHL. He still has one more year remaining on a two-year deal he signed last summer, so the Golden Knights have to wait a while longer. “He’s got another year on his deal and then we’ll see what we can do. He’s a talented guy and we’ll do what we can to get him here. We’ve talked to him, and we’ll continue to talk to him,” McPhee said.
Snapshots: Draft Rankings, Hartnell, Matthews
The 2018 NHL Entry Draft is less than three weeks away, and teams and pundits around the league are finalizing their rankings. Today, TSN Director of Scouting Craig Button released his final list of the top-100 prospects eligible for the draft, and Rasmus Dahlin remains on top. That’s not unexpected, neither is Andrei Svechnikov or Filip Zadina at the number two and three spots respectively.
Where Button’s list may vary from others is where he lists his top two center prospects, Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Barrett Hayton. The two young pivots are fifth and seventh respectively, ahead of top defensive prospects like Noah Dobson, Evan Bouchard and Adam Boqvist. Button is also high on towering power forward Serron Noel (#13) and shifty winger Akil Thomas (#17). Joe Veleno, once expected to be selected at the very top of the first round, is way down at #28.
- Scott Hartnell has begun training for the 2018-19 season, but as Adam Vingan of the Tennessean writes in his recent profile on the Nashville Predators free agent, if the 36-year old forward doesn’t find a contract he’s okay with that too. After registering 24 points in 62 games this season there is still reason to believe that Hartnell can be an effective bottom-six player, but it was just a year ago that he was bought out by the Blue Jackets and had to settle for a $1MM contract. If it is the end of his career, he’ll go out with 707 points in 1,249 games—a great career to say the least.
- Toronto Maple Leafs fans were up in arms last night questioning what it could mean when James Mirtle of The Athletic reported that Auston Matthews had changed agencies. Matthews has followed his agent from CAA to the Orr Hockey Group, with many pointing to the fact that they also represent Connor McDavid and negotiated his league-leading eight-year $100MM extension. Matthews can sign an extension on July 1st, and could be the league’s next highly-paid young star. While it may not match the $12.5MM/year that McDavid will start earning next season, Jack Eichel‘s eight-year $80MM deal is certainly within reach.
Poll: Superstar Defensemen On The Move
Much has been made recently about the futures of five All-Star defenseman who are slated for free agency in 2019. Drew Doughty is working toward an extension with the Los Angeles Kings. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is sitting on an offer from the Arizona Coyotes. The Nashville Predators have made re-signing Ryan Ellis their priority this off-season. Ryan McDonagh was unable to bring home a Stanley Cup for the favorite Tampa Bay Lightning after a deadline blockbuster. And all of this has somehow overshadowed the potential availability of the Ottawa Senators’ Erik Karlsson.
All five of these superstar defenders could sign extensions on July 1st. Of course, they could all be dealt away even sooner. Doughty seems closest on a deal, but has strict salary demands that could end up souring one side or the other. Ekman-Larsson has always seemed loyal to the Coyotes, but is understandably concerned about the future of the team given their struggles throughout his career. Ellis too has been a loyal soldier for the Predators and an extremely underpaid one at that. He could make far more and play a far greater role elsewhere. McDonagh was acquired for the Bolts to make a title run this year and next, but beyond that point the team may not be able to afford him. Finally, Karlsson is the ultimate prize. He has expressed a desire to get fair market value on his next deal and polarizing Ottawa owner Eugene Melnyk seems unlikely to match.
So, as the off-season gets underway and these five know that their futures will be determined in the next twelve months, the question is how many re-sign and how many move on, either via trade or free agency? Which of these stars will don the same jersey in 2019-20 as they did in 2017-18?
Snapshots: Josi, Condors, Kempny
Roman Josi couldn’t drag the Nashville Predators or Switzerland to victory this year, but it wasn’t for a lack of effort. As reported in swisshockeynews.ch today, Josi broke his hand in the IIHF World Championship semi-final game against Canada, but still suited up in the final for nearly 30 minutes of ice time. Apparently the Swiss team needed to get permission from the Predators to have him continue to play, likely meaning it’s not a serious injury for the Nashville captain.
Josi will be expected to log big minutes once again for the Predators next season as he continues to close in on the end of his current contract. The 28-year old defenseman is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2020, meaning an extension from GM David Poile and the team just over a year from now seems like almost a sure thing. Josi will carry a cap hit of just $4MM this season and next, another one of the Predators’ mind-boggling bargains on the back end. He, Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis combine for just a $10.25MM cap hit and are among the best at their position—broken hand and all.
- The Bakersfield Condors have hired Dave Manson as an assistant coach for next season, joining the Edmonton Oilers’ AHL affiliate and head coach Jay Woodcroft. Manson, former NHL player and father of Anaheim Ducks’ defenseman Josh Manson, had been coaching with the Prince Albert Raiders since his retirement in 2002. The Condors will try to get back to the playoffs next season, after finishing just 31-27-10 in 2017-18.
- Michal Kempny has been a huge part of the Washington Capitals success since coming over from the Chicago Blackhawks during the season, but even he wasn’t expecting to have such an impact. In fact, according to Frank Seravalli of TSN, Kempny was considering returning to Europe at some point as he doubted his future in the NHL. The 27-year old shouldn’t have to worry about that any longer, as he’s done enough to earn a contract offer from the Capitals at very least, and likely many more suitors on the open market should he decide to test unrestricted free agency this summer.
Snapshots: Carlson, Ellis, Kovalchuk, Nash
If John Tavares re-signs with the New York Islanders, Washington Capitals defenseman John Carlson would become the undisputed top free agent on the market this summer. However, Carlson’s priority is also to re-sign with his current team and the Capitals’ current Stanley Cup run may only sell him on staying even more. Plus, the estimated cap increase could make it easier for Washington to retain their blue line leader. Yet, Carlson is unlikely to ignore what the open market might offer in a world with no Tavares and a higher cap ceiling. The 28-year-old defenseman could command much more from another team than he’ll likely be able to get from the Caps. The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun believes that one of the top suitors will be none other than Carlson’s current opposition, the Vegas Golden Knights. Despite their unforeseeable success this season, the Knights’ defensive corps is far from an elite unit and is in need of a leader. Although they have been connected to Erik Karlsson in the past, LeBrun opines that the easier route for Vegas may be to simply sign Carlson. The need, the cap space, and the connection to GM George McPhee may be enough to entice Carlson to make the cross-country trek. If the Knights are able to win the Stanley Cup, it would add insult to injury to steal both a title and a top player from the Capitals.
- LeBrun also had the inside scoop on another defenseman, the Nashville Predators’ Ryan Ellis. Although Ellis is not a free agent until 2019, LeBrun learned from Nashville GM David Poile that signing Ellis to an extension will be the Predators’ top priority this summer. Citing the loss of Ryan Suter years ago, LeBrun says that Poile is no longer willing to wait on re-signing his key players. However, the negotiations with Ellis may prove to be more difficult than anticipated. Ellis has been one of the best values in hockey over the last five years at a cap hit of just $2.5MM. No one will blame the offensive defenseman for seeking top dollar in his next deal and he is more likely to find that on the open market.
- One player who may not be as concerned about money is Ilya Kovalchuk. TSN’s Darren Dreger reports that Kovalchuk’s main priority in returning to the NHL is to win the Stanley Cup. Kovalchuk is allegedly focused on finding a multi-year deal with a good fit. One possible suitor could be the New York Islanders, as Kovalchuk expressed to Dreger that he appreciated how then-GM Lou Lamoriello handled his sudden departure from New Jersey and shared that the two have maintained a positive relationship. Now that Lamoriello is in New York with more than enough cap space to sign Tavares and quite a few more, Kovalchuk could be a target. The KHL’s reigning leading scorer may sign with any team on July 1st.
- One player who could be locked up before July 1st is Rick Nash. Boston Bruins GM Don Sweeney has expressed a desire to bring back several of his impending free agents, but has noted the reality that there is not enough space for all of them. The Bruins appear to have prioritized a new deal with their blockbuster trade deadline acquisition, as The Sports Hub’s Ty Anderson reports that Sweeney and Nash will continue negotiations next week. On the topic, Sweeney said “Rick indicated when he came to Boston that he was excited about the opportunity. He wants to win. He wants an opportunity to win. He felt badly, and certainly he’s not responsible for this, because he got injured.” What Nash feels badly about is likely both the drop-off in his play during the playoffs and the premature end to the Bruins season at the hands of the Tampa Bay Lightning in the second round. Nash suffered a concussion late in the regular season and never seemed to get back to 100%, but prior to his injury looked unstoppable on the Bruins’ second line with David Krejci and Jake DeBrusk. At the right price, it’s understandable why Sweeney and company would like to give Nash another chance to re-create that chemistry and help bring a Cup to Boston.