Snapshots: Trade Bait, Three Stars, Dobson
The NHL trade season is upon us with only seven weeks until the deadline and teams falling out of the playoff race. With that, Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) broke down his list of 20 players who could be on the move before February 25th. At the top of the list is Artemi Panarin, who is still without a contract extension as we head into the second half of the season. The Columbus Blue Jackets are trying to make a deep Stanley Cup run and have perhaps the toughest decisions in the league with Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky set to hit unrestricted free agency.
Deeper down the list though Custance provides some details on asking prices, explaining that a deal to acquire Jake Muzzin from the Los Angeles Kings would need to start with a first-round pick while Alec Martinez might cost just a second-round pick and a good prospect. The Kings still sit at the bottom of the Pacific Division and are the only NHL team to have scored fewer than 100 goals this season. There are changes coming for Los Angeles, but in a “strong buyers market” it will be interesting to see how much they really get back for some of their trade assets.
- Last week’s Three Stars have been revealed by the NHL, with Johnny Gaudreau taking home the top honors. Gaudreau recorded 11 points in four games and has led the Calgary Flames all season. Brent Burns takes home the second star, but most interesting might be Robin Lehner in the third position. Lehner looked to be on the brink of losing his NHL career when he went unqualified by the Buffalo Sabres, but has turned things around dramatically this season with the New York Islanders. With a .927 save percentage there is good reason to believe that Lehner could be one of the top goaltending options on the market this summer after his one-year deal expires, unless the Islanders can lock him up over the next few months.
- Noah Dobson might be best known to many hockey fans for his stick exploding in overtime for Canada in the recent World Junior Championship, but he’s also a dominant defenseman and leader in the QMJHL. The Islanders prospect is on the move thanks to a junior deadline deal that will send him to the Rouyn-Noranda Huskies for the remainder of the season. The Huskies sent three first-round picks and a second-round pick for the right to acquire Dobson, who will give them another huge weapon on their quest for a Memorial Cup berth. The trade deadline for the OHL and WHL meanwhile passes on Thursday, meaning many more top prospects will be on the move.
San Jose Sharks Sign Lukas Radil To One-Year Extension
With eight forwards heading for either restricted or unrestricted free agency, the San Jose Sharks have cut that number down as they announced they have signed forward Lukas Radil to one-year extension for the 2019-20 season. CapFriendly reports that the extension will be for $700K, a small decrease from his current AAV of $750K but this new contract will be a one-way pact.
“He has seized the opportunity that he has been given and earned his place on our team,” said general manager Doug Wilson. “His love for the game is apparent as is his character and maturity to how he plays the game. We feel that his game will continue to grow.”
The 28-year-old has played overseas until this season, his last three in the KHL, where he tallied 41 goals over three seasons for Moscow Spartak. San Jose signed the forward to a one-year, $750K deal in April of 2018. He played 11 games with the Barracuda in the AHL earlier this season where he put up six points, but has been even more impressive after getting promoted to the Sharks where he has scored six goals and nine points in 18 games this year and holds a +10 rating, which is third on the team in plus/minus.
Wilson has quite a bit of work to do this offseason as the team has a number of players hitting unrestricted free agency, including Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton, Joonas Donskoi and Marcus Sorensen. That doesn’t include their biggest free agency concern in defenseman Erik Karlsson. The team also has to work on new contracts for restricted free agents Timo Meier, Kevin Labanc, Rourke Chartier and Joakim Ryan. So locking up Radil to another one-year extension helps add some depth for next year and keeps Radil from leaving to another team or returning to Europe.
The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz was the first to report the extension.
Extension Talks Cooling Between Ottawa Senators, Matt Duchene
After colleague Elliotte Friedman wrote about the Ottawa Senators and their upcoming extension candidates just earlier today, Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston added some more information during the Headlines segment in the first intermission of the Vancouver Canucks-Toronto Maple Leafs game. Johnston reported that extension talks between the Senators and top center Matt Duchene have cooled off of late, and that he may become more of a trade candidate in the coming weeks:
The clock ticks towards February 25th and the NHL trade deadline, and as it does so it’s quite interesting that the talks between the Ottawa Senators and Matt Duchene—their pending unrestricted free agent—appear to have cooled off. There doesn’t seem to have been anything of substance here in recent times, no talks are immediately scheduled in the weeks ahead. Why this is interesting is because Ottawa has struggled, having lost seven straight. Pierre Dorion, the General Manager obviously doesn’t want to place any sort of a deadline on when he needs an answer on Matt Duchene’s intentions [and] whether he will sign an extension. Clearly as this slides along we are looking at him as a potential target in that trade deadline period and someone that the Senators are going to have to make a decision on. I don’t get the sense from Duchene’s side that there’s any rush for them to make that kind of decision.
Duchene is not the only player on the Senators in this sort of situation, as both Mark Stone and Ryan Dzingel are also unrestricted free agents at the end of the year and would be very appealing to teams at the deadline, but he may be the most important. Dorion went out on a limb last year by trading a huge amount of assets in order to bring Duchene to Ottawa, knowing that he was scheduled for free agency not even two seasons later. The most infamous asset in that package is the first-round pick that Ottawa owes Colorado, which must be given this year even if it is the first overall selection. Watching Duchene walk out the door for nothing in free agency just a few days after that draft would be an absolute disaster for the Senators.
So, it seems as though whether Dorion wants to put a deadline on extension talks or not there will come a day when the Senators need an answer. Allowing the trade deadline to pass without a deal signed and delivered would be extremely dangerous, even if substantial progress has been made. That means the team has just over seven weeks to work something out or they very well could be forced to take the best offer from around the league.
Those offers though should be quite enticing on their own. Duchene is in the midst of the best offensive season of his career with 41 points in 36 games, and has routinely been one of the best players on the ice despite the Senators overall record. The fact that 32 of those points are at even-strength and the 27-year old center has been his usual dominant self in the faceoff circle will only improve the interest from around the league, and there very well could be a bidding war for him as the best center on the market. Duchene’s $6MM cap hit certainly isn’t small, but the Senators could potentially retain salary to make him fit into basically every contender’s financial structure in order to maximize a return.
Still, there’s no reason to assume that things are headed towards a trade for at least another few weeks. Dorion could easily pick up the phone and start up talks again, or reach out with an long-term offer to Duchene’s camp. Until that happens though speculation will run wild around the Senators and their pending free agents, especially after this recent skid has sent them plummeting to the bottom of the NHL standings.
Trade Rumors: Senators, Ferland, Goldobin
In his latest “31 Thoughts” article, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman poses the question on the mind of many fans and general managers alike: how long will the Ottawa Senators wait to make a decision on the futures of their impending free agent stars? The team made it a point to say early in the season that they had talked about a new contract with Matt Duchene and just recently it was reported that Mark Stone is prepared to talk to the team as well, now that he is eligible for an extension in the new year. Friedman adds that the Ottawa has already approached Ryan Dzingel about a new deal as well. The Senators clearly have plans to discuss contract extensions with the trio, but with the NHL Trade Deadline less than two months away, at what point will they begin talking to other teams instead? On one hand, the Senators owe the bulk of their meager offense to these three impending free agents and seemingly must do their best to bring back as many as they can. Stone leads the team with 45 points, while Duchene has missed six games but nevertheless is second with 40 points, and Dzingel is fourth – third among forwards – with 29 points. The idea that the team could lose all three and somehow improve next season seems like a long shot to say the least. The team has to do their best to resign the group. Yet, if the trio were to depart, it would be much nicer if they did so with a parting gift. Even if GM Pierre Dorion holds on to each player through the deadline in hopes of resigning them, there is no guarantee that they will stay in Ottawa. Rather than lose them for nothing, the Senators would benefit far more from trading them for hefty returns this season. Odds are that the team negotiates with each one of Stone, Duchene, and Dzingel right up until deadline before making a move, but if the market is stronger beforehand, Dorion and company will have some difficult decisions to make.
- The Carolina Hurricanes are in a similar position with off-season acquisition Micheal Ferland. Ferland, an overlooked part of the Dougie Hamilton trade between the ‘Canes and Calgary Flames, has enjoyed a breakout season in Carolina. Ferland is fourth on the team in scoring with 19 points and is currently on pace to set a new career high in scoring despite missing seven games due to injury. Friedman’s opinion on this situation is somewhat more definitive than Ottawa’s. Friedman claims that the two teams are talking extension, but if one is not in place by the trade deadline, Ferland will certainly be moved. The two-way left wing would be a highly valued asset on the rental market and Carolina would not hesitate to get what they can in a trade. Ferland, who has found a fit with Carolina, may not even rule out returning to the team in free agency, even if they can’t come to terms on a new contract this year. The only question remaining is how soon the Hurricanes would be willing to move Ferland if a deal is not coming together.
- One surprise player who Friedman notes could be available is Vancouver Canucks forward Nikolay Goldobin. Friedman states that the team is merely looking into the potential return for the young winger right now, but even testing the market on Goldobin is unexpected. The 23-year-old winger is fourth on the team in scoring with 23 points in 41 games and at times has looked like a key piece of the young core for the Canucks. Yet, he has also moved around the lineup frequently and has even been a healthy scratch. It could be that Vancouver is fearful of upcoming negotiations with the impending restricted free agent, as GM Jim Benning and head coach Travis Green are not yet sold that he is worthy of a long-term contract, nor does the team want to be saddled with an arbitration decision. Regardless, a young player with the offensive upside of Goldobin is a rare entry into the trade market (although he has already been traded once in his career) and if the Canucks truly make him available, they will surely find takers.
Ottawa, Mark Stone To Start Contract Negotiations In Two Weeks
With a team in a critical state, it would benefit the Ottawa Senators if they could re-sign one or both of their top free agents this summer. The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch reports that Mark Stone said that he expects contract negotiations to start in the next two weeks and makes it clear that he wants to stay in Ottawa.
Today marks the first day that Stone can sign an extension with the Senators. The 26-year-old went to arbitration with Ottawa this summer, eventually winning a one-year, $7.35MM deal as the two parties failed to agree to a long-term deal. Now the Senators must deal with Stone, who will hit unrestricted free agency this summer. The fact that both sides seem agreeable to working out a deal could be considered a good sign. However, that doesn’t mean that Stone is guaranteed to return. If the team fails to agree to an extension with Stone before the trade deadline in February, don’t be surprised if the Senators trade the talented forward rather than let him walk away for nothing.
Stone has been impressive on the ice this season and has been a leader both on and off the ice for a young Senators’ squad. TSN reports that Stone led a team meeting today, to discuss with the players the team’s recent struggles. He already has 18 goals and 43 points through 40 games and could be heading for a career year if he can keep those number up as his previous career high was back in the 2014-15 season when he tallied 26 goals and 64 points. A big season will only increase Stone’s asking price, but Ottawa really needs to make sure they can either keep Stone or Matt Duchene, who has also said that he’d like to stay in Ottawa, but many feel he may opt to leave Ottawa. Another concern is the team’s lack of willingness to offer big contracts out due to the team’s financial situation.
Atlantic Notes: Point, Andersen, McAvoy, Helm
With more and more rumors surfacing that many teams may consider handing out offer sheets this summer when a number of intriguing game-changing restricted free agents will be out there, one team that might have to worry more than anyone will be the salary-strapped Tampa Bay Lightning. The team will have quite a few cap issues this offseason, including a number of unrestricted defensive free agents in Anton Stralman, Braydon Coburn and Dan Girardi as well as multiple restricted free agents, including star center Brayden Point.
The fear is that a team might take advantage of Tampa Bay’s situation and make Point an offer that the Lightning would have trouble matching as they will be forced to make significant adjustments for the next several years with all the big-name players they have. However, The Athletic’s Joe Smith (subscription required) interviewed general manager Julien BriseBois about many topics, but the GM believes that offer sheets aren’t being utilized amongst NHL teams for a reason.
“I’m really not concerned at all about offer sheets,” BriseBois said. “I don’t see it happening. The way it’s set up, there’s no point in making an offer sheet unless you think you’re going to get the player. And teams match. You’re not going to let go of the good young players that are going to be good for your team for many years to come. So I don’t see it.”
BriseBois also pointed out that negotiations with Point will not begin until after the season and even if a team was able to get Point to sign an offer sheet, he believes that the team would have the time needed to move around pieces to retain Point.
- Mark Zwolinski of The Star writes that Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Mike Babcock said that there is no rush when it comes to getting back goaltender Frederik Andersen, who is out with a groin injury. Andersen, who has played more minutes than any goaltender in the league so far in the past two years, is expected to work out with goaltending coach Steve Briere on Tuesday and could be cleared for practice on Wednesday, but whether he plays on Thursday afternoon or Saturday isn’t important to the coach. “Let’s make it clear, there’s no plan,” Babcock said.
- Joe Haggerty of NBC Sports writes that Boston Bruins defenseman Charlie McAvoy seems unlikely to play in Tuesday’s Winter Classic after not practicing Monday. If McAvoy misses Tuesday’s game, that will be the 23rd game that he has missed this season, which is starting to look like a pattern as he also missed 19 games in his rookie campaign last season. Haggerty suggests that if he continues to show an inability to stay on the ice, that could affect the big contract that many people expect McAvoy will get this offseason when he hits restricted free agency. He’s been compared to Drew Doughty, but Doughty has never missed more than six games in a season and has played a full 82-game schedule five times in his career.
- MLive’s Ansar Khan writes that the Detroit Red Wings are close to getting back veteran Darren Helm and he could be back as early as Wednesday. The forward has been out since Nov. 17 with a shoulder injury. The 31-year-old has just one goal this season in 20 games after a 13-goal season a year ago.
Brian Elliott To Avoid Surgery, Return In A Few Weeks
Though the Philadelphia Flyers are sitting in last place in the Metropolitan Division, they haven’t yet thrown in the towel. Several injured goaltenders are still working to try and get back to the team, and today GM Chuck Fletcher told reporters including Sam Carchidi of the Philadelphia Inquirer that Brian Elliott will not require surgery. Elliott should be back in three weeks, which makes him an interesting trade candidate at the deadline if the Flyers haven’t climbed back into the playoff picture.
Elliott, 33, is on the final year of his current contract and carries a $2.75MM cap hit. He could very well be heading for unrestricted free agency in the summer given the emergence of Carter Hart as the likely starting option next season, meaning he could be a short-term rental for a playoff team looking for some veteran depth. Sometimes it’s easy to forget that at one point Elliott was considered a premiere starter in the league, twice leading the league in save percentage as a member of the St. Louis Blues and even earning some Hart Trophy votes in 2011-12.
Now years removed from that performance, Elliott still wasn’t the biggest problem in Philadelphia before his injury. Posting a .911 save percentage in 14 appearances, he looked more than capable to carry at least a partial starter load or perform as the reliable backup. That’s something that playoff teams may be interested in, especially if they’ve dealt with injury concerns to their number one options already. The Toronto Maple Leafs, for instance, just went out and spent a draft pick to acquire Michael Hutchinson to give them some more experience at the position, knowing that they were a few injuries away from having Kasimir Kaskisuo suit up for a first round playoff game.
There is also the opportunity for Elliott to show that he can be a useful backup and mentor to Hart going forward, and perhaps sign an extension with the Flyers. It’s not clear how the goaltending situation will shake out exactly given the pending UFA status of both Elliott and Michal Neuvirth, meaning the stretch run could be a showcase for both of them to prove they can still help the team going forward.
Several KHL Stars Eyeing Return To NHL
The Kontinental Hockey League is well past the midway point of their season and players are beginning to look ahead to next year. The NHL off-season is still a ways away, but many KHLers are already hoping to get a chance at the highest level next year. While few European pros who would like to play in the NHL actually possess the name value or ability to do so, those with experience in the league stand a far better chance. In his latest “31 Thoughts” article, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman identified three former NHLers currently excelling overseas who have the interest and the talent to end up back in the league next season: Mikhail Grigorenko, Nikita Nesterov, and Victor Antipin.
Of the trio, Grigorenko stands out as truly shining this season in the KHL. The CSKA Moscow star has 34 points through 35 games, leading the team in scoring and in the top ten league-wide in per-game production. Grigorenko looks far better in his second season in the KHL than he did last year and could be catching the eye of NHL teams. The 2012 No. 12 overall pick possesses immense skill, as well as good size and physical ability. However, in stints with the Buffalo Sabres and Colorado Avalanche over five seasons, he could never quite put it all together. Grigorenko was traded away by Buffalo as part of the Ryan O’Reilly trade in 2015 and improved substantially during two seasons in Denver, but nevertheless bolted for his native Russia after he was not qualified by the team and became a free agent two years ago. CSKA is thankful that he did, as Grigorenko’s play has fueled the team to the top spot in the standings as of now. Grigorenko has likely matured as a player and leader since his NHL days and could be an intriguing option this summer.
Nesterov also has his fair share of NHL experience, skating as the sixth or seventh defenseman for the Tampa Bay Lightning for parts of three seasons before being dealt to the Montreal Canadiens ahead of the 2017 NHL Trade Deadline. Nesterov showed good two-way ability in his limited roles with the Bolts and Habs, but was also prone to poor stretches and bad mistakes. He signed with CSKA the same off-season as Grigorenko, but was able to make an immediate impact in his first season, posting 19 points in 42 games while often playing top-pair minutes. Yet, Nesterov is already about to surpass that mark this season, with 18 points through 35 games. Nesterov is within the top ten defensemen in the KHL in scoring this season and his play is also part of the reason that CSKA has allowed far fewer goals than nearly every other team in the league.
One of few blue liners with more points than Nesterov this season is Antipin, who unlike the other two is just one year removed from the NHL. However, he also has just the one season in the league to his credit and it was far from impressive. Antipin made his NHL debut last year after signing with the Buffalo Sabres. He skated in 47 games with the team, but failed to score a goal and only added ten assists. It was far from a surprise that he left Buffalo to return home this summer. A failed first NHL season won’t stop the hype over the swift skating defenseman though; Friedman reports that the speculation of an Antipin return is fueled more so by interest from NHL teams than the player’s own desire to play in the league. Antipin has 21 points in 40 games this year for Metallurg Magnitogorsk, fourth-best on the team. A balanced two-way game, especially in the offense-heavy KHL, is often a good way to impress NHL scouts and Antipin may get his second chance far sooner than he might have expected.
Re-Signing Matthew Tkachuk Is “Priority One” For Calgary Flames
Despite their recent two-game losing streak, the Calgary Flames woke up today still comfortably in first place in the Pacific Division, four points ahead of both the San Jose Sharks and Anaheim Ducks. The team is also tied with the Winnipeg Jets for the best goal differential in the entire Western Conference, and have bought themselves some time to slowly assess their roster heading into 2019. When looking at their contract situation though, one name sticks out as a pending free agent. Matthew Tkachuk will reach restricted free agency for the first time at the end of this season, and Flames GM Brad Treliving made it quite clear to TSN’s Jermain Franklin that a re-signing the young forward is a focus:
Matthew is a terrific player. He’s on the last year of his contract. We’ve said all along, our goal is to get him signed obviously before the start of next season. Nothing’s changed in that regard, we’re going to continue to see if we can’t get something done. Both Matthew and us know the most important thing right now is the play on the ice of the team, and Matthew’s play. We’re trying to limit any distractions so that the sole focus can stay on the games ahead of us, but certainly it’s priority one for us to get him signed to a new contract, and we will.
Tkachuk, 21, is one of a number of talented players coming up on restricted free agency at the end of the year, and could very well wait to see what his contemporaries sign for before putting ink to paper. The entire league just watched a long negotiation between the Toronto Maple Leafs and William Nylander result in a hefty long-term contract, and most will want to avoid that type of situation. While Tkachuk’s first two seasons didn’t have the same sort of offensive totals that Nylander did, he’s off to an outstanding start in the first half of 2018-19 and could very well set his asking price extremely high.
The physical, talented winger was selected sixth overall in 2016 and had an immediate impact for the Flames, recording 13 goals and 48 points as a rookie. His total increased by just a single point in his sophomore season due to playing just 68 games, but this year Tkachuk already has 41 points in his first 36 games. That kind of output could very well put him in another category of contract, one that the Flames will have to carefully plan over the coming months.
While he may call it a priority, it’s also important to note that Treliving and the Flames have never rushed before in their contract negotiations. Johnny Gaudreau inked his second contract on October 10th, 2016, just two days before the season began and Sam Bennett waited until September 2017 to sign his two-year bridge deal. Perhaps the team will want to avoid that delay with Tkachuk, but won’t put themselves in a place to get pushed around given that they don’t have unlimited cap space going forward. The team already has over $67MM in commitments for next season, which doesn’t include a new deal for Bennett or an extension for one of their current goaltenders.
Toronto Maple Leafs Hope To Sign Matthews, Marner Before July
The Toronto Maple Leafs went through a long and tough negotiation with William Nylander over the last six months, which cost the young forward the first two months of the season. Though the team obviously did fine without him, Nylander is still working his way into game shape even as the holiday season arrives. That’s not a situation GM Kyle Dubas wants to deal with again, and today he explained that the team will try to avoid it with both Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. The dynamic duo are scheduled for restricted free agency for the first time this summer, but are able to sign long-term extensions at any time. Dave McCarthy writes for NHL.com that Dubas hopes to have deals done long before July 1st:
We do want to avoid the situation we were just in (with William Nylander). It would be our intention well before July 1st that we have an agreement and both players are here long term. One way or another, we’ll get to that point.
Getting deals done with Matthews and Marner over the next few months would certainly give the team some cost certainty as they head into the next phase of their competitive window. Toronto currently has a large amount of available cap space thanks to the entry-level performances from Matthews, Marner and others like Kasperi Kapanen, Travis Dermott and Andreas Johnsson, but that won’t last very long. Four of those five players will be restricted free agents this summer—Dermott is the lone one under contract through 2019-20—though still have strong negotiating leverage with most of them. Only Johnsson is arbitration eligible, meaning that once the offseason began the two sides would have plenty of time to work through the process.
One of the reasons for getting it done before the offseason begins though would be the threat of an offer sheet, something that has come up repeatedly over the years despite the almost complete lack of them actually being put into practice. Dubas addressed that issue too, saying that he spends “zero percent” of his day worrying about the threat of an offer sheet and explaining that the Maple Leafs salary system is well set up to defend against one. An offer sheet for Matthews or Marner would almost certainly require a team to risk four first-round picks, but Toronto would also still have the ability to match any signed contract.
Interestingly though, getting deals done with Matthews and Marner before the end of February could be an appealing plan for the Maple Leafs. The team has recently been rumored to be interested in adding some help on defense, but it’s hard to know exactly how much cap room they will have going forward. That may limit the team to acquiring short-term or rental options instead of investing in a more permanent solution, unless they can find one at a very reasonable cap hit. The same applies to “own-rental” Jake Gardiner, who is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent but plays a huge role on the Maple Leafs currently. The team has been open for some time about their interest in re-signing Gardiner, but he may want to test the open market given that he would almost certainly be able to secure more money away from Toronto.
With Nylander done, the Maple Leafs have been busy over the last few weeks tying up some loose ends. Trading Josh Leivo, Adam Cracknell and Jeff Glass, while signing Calle Rosen to an extension and getting Ian Scott to sign his entry-level contract. Those are all relatively unimportant moves compared to the big ones left to come, and it’s obvious that the team would like to get long-term deals done as soon as possible.
Notably, Jonas Siegel of The Athletic also released a profile of Marner today (subscription required) which contains several interesting quotes from his family. That has already made waves with a fan base that is still a bit tender from the long Nylander negotiation, and hoping their other two stars will be locked up without a fight. We’ll have to wait and see if that’s possible for Dubas and the Maple Leafs’ front office, or if they will have to head into the summer months with some huge tasks still in front of them.
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