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PHR Originals: 01/30/2017 – 02/05/2017

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As we get closer to the NHL trade deadline, PHR has been pumping out the original pieces. Here is a look at the past week:

Expansion Draft Issues At The Trade Deadline: Defense and Goaltending

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This trade season is one like never before. The addition of the Vegas Golden Knights in 2017-18 and the Expansion Draft that goes along with it add a whole other layer to trade-making this year. With each and every transaction, the expansion draft protection formula can change. Even in 2000, when the Minnesota Wild and Columbus Blue Jackets were welcomed into the league, the expansion rules were not a strict and general managers did not have to be as paranoid about their moves. This time around, everything is different. What does it all mean? For fans, there is a real possibility that this could be the quietest Trade Deadline in recent memory. Buyers interested in impending free agent rentals may not have to worry about the draft implications, but the sellers potentially taking back roster players with term certainly do. Trading is hard enough, especially in a season with very few teams significantly out of the playoff race, and expansion will only increase those barriers. Luckily, there are several teams that need to make moves prior to the deadline or they could risk being in very sticky situations when the Knights get ready to make their selections. With teams like the Minnesota Wild, Pittsburgh Penguins, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Anaheim Ducks, who have so much talented, veteran depth at multiple positions, there is really not much that they can do; they’re going to lose a good player. For others, a sensible contract extension can solve all of their problems. However, for these teams, making a trade before it’s too late may be exactly what they need:

Calgary Flames – Defensemen

As currently constituted, the Flames would be forced to expose a great defenseman in the Expansion Draft. Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie, and Dougie Hamilton are clearly the three blue liners that Calgary wants to protect from exposure. However, they are also the only three that meet the “40/70” mandate of having a player with term on their contact who has played 40 games this season or 70 games combined over the last two seasons. Each team is required to expose one defenseman that meets these qualifications, but the Flames don’t have one outside of their core three. Both Dennis Wideman and Deryk Engelland meet the game totals, but are unrestricted free agents. Jyrki Jokipakka is an unrestricted free agent. No other defenseman in the entire organization who has played more than two pro seasons is signed beyond 2017. The Flames only option right now, assuming they have no interest in bringing Wideman or Engelland back, is to extend Jokipakka for the purpose of making him available by the June 21st draft date. However, if they want to take their time negotiating a new deal with the centerpiece of their return for Kris Russell, or if they’re worried that he is more likely to be selected with a new deal than as a free agent, the Flames must look to strike a deal for a qualifying defenseman. They will need blue line help this off-season anyway, so look for Calgary to be major players in quality veteran defenseman with term, should any hit the market.

Carolina Hurricanes – Defensemen

Carolina is in a similar position to Calgary, but don’t even have a choice of three defensemen to choose from if they don’t make a change; the Hurricanes would have to expose (and would surely lose) All-Star Justin Faulk. That, of course, won’t happen, but the ’Canes must make a move to avoid it. Carolina’s highly-touted young defense is actually what creates this problem. Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, and Noah Hanifin are all amazingly still in their second pro seasons and exempt from selection. Ron Hainsey is an unrestricted free agent and a prime trade candidate. That leaves three others who could possibly fit the bill for GM Ron Francis. 23-year-old Ryan Murphy has a year left on his contract, but remains 24 games shy of reaching the 40/70 benchmark. Would the Hurricanes play Murphy, who has all but been cast aside in Carolina, for the remainder of the season just to expose him? The other option is to extend an impending free agent like Klas Dahlbeck, who otherwise qualifies, or Matt Tennyson, who needs just ten more games to reach the mark. Neither is likely to be selected by Vegas, but would at least cover the requirement for the ’Canes. The question then becomes whether the team is willing to extend either one when they are so loaded with young talent on the blue line that they would rather not have blocked by mediocre players. Acquiring a qualifying defenseman who presents an upgrade over the pair, but not a surefire expansion pick may make more sense.

Philadelphia Flyers – Goalies

As has been touched on before, teams with goalie qualification problems have been easy to spot this season. Goaltenders don’t have a games-played mandate for exposure, but must have term on their contracts. Going into this season, the Montreal Canadiens had no protection for Carey Price, but fixed that by giving backup Al Montoya an extension, and the Anaheim Ducks had plenty of goalies, but none that qualified other than John Gibson until they extended AHL keeper Dustin Tokarski. The Minnesota Wild decided to follow in the Ducks’ footsteps recently, protecting Devan Dubnyk by extending Alex Stalock rather than backup Darcy Kuemper. That leaves just one team, the Flyers, with goalie problems (what else is new). Their situation is unique though, as Philadelphia is not looking to protect a starter by re-signing or acquiring a backup. Instead, they need to protect prospect Anthony Stolarz. With Steve Mason and Michal Neuvirth set to become unrestricted free agents, Stolarz is the only keeper in the system who qualifies for exposure, and Vegas would surely jump on the promising young goaltender. However, neither Mason nor Neuvirth have played nearly well enough this season to warrant an extension of starter-level money, especially when both would be unlikely to be selected in the draft. The Flyers have few options though, as they don’t want to spend substantial trade capital on a new starter for the future, only to watch him be selected by the Knights. The Flyers are likely scouring the NHL for backup-caliber goalies with term on their contracts and on teams who have the flexibility to move them. It’s a narrow search, and if no deal can be made, Philadelphia will have little choice but to overpay to bring back one of their underwhelming NHL keepers.

Stay tuned next week for Part II: Forwards, featuring six more troubled teams

Blues Notes: Ribeiro, Hitchcock, Johnson, Armstrong

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The Blues may be one of the more interesting teams leading up to the trade deadline. The team has talent, but has underachieved this year and is battling just to make the postseason as a wild card. St. Louis took the surprising step of firing highly-respected head coach Ken Hitchcock, who had already announced he was retiring following the 2016-17 season, but more changes could be on the way.

Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch hosted his weekly chat with Blues fans today and tackled several queries regarding what steps the team might take next. It goes without saying but the whole post is well worth your time. Regardless, here’s a compilation of a few of the highlights:

  • Rutherford has long suggested the Blues need help at the center position and with Mike Ribeiro hitting the waiver wire today, one reader wondered whether St. Louis would take a chance on the talented pivot. While Ribeiro has a solid track record of offensive production, Rutherford just doesn’t see the soon-to-be-37-year-old as a fit for the Blues, citing the fact he has been a healthy scratch in Nashville on several occasions this season. Ribeiro does have 25 points in 46 games this season but only four goals. It’s likely the Predators sought potential trade partners prior to waiving Ribeiro and it would seem there wasn’t much interest. It’s possible someone besides St. Louis in need of center help will take a chance given the pivot is in the final season of his contract and wouldn’t come with much risk as a result. He did register a 50-point campaign in 2015-16 and tallied 62 the season before, suggesting he might still be able to help a team offensively.
  • The scribe also addressed whether Hitchcock’s name might come up in connection with the Las Vegas head coaching job. Rutherford is of the impression the veteran bench boss wouldn’t be “keen” on the idea and while he doesn’t specify as to why, it’s possible that the 65-year-old is simply at a point in his career where he wouldn’t want to take on the challenge of building an expansion franchise from the ground up. However, despite the fact he was set to retire after the 2016-17 season, many in the industry have said they wouldn’t be surprised to see Hitch back in the league at some point.
  • The Blues and Lightning have been linked as potential trading partners, given St. Louis’ issues in goal and the possible availability of pending free agent netminder Ben Bishop. However, Rutherford has heard that the Blues have interest in another Tampa Bay player: center Tyler Johnson. Johnson would make a ton of sense for the Blues. The team likely still fancies themselves as Stanley Cup contenders – if not necessarily this year – and a hypothetical deal for Johnson not only addresses a weakness now but would add a talented player who can be controlled as a RFA beyond the current campaign. Rutherford doesn’t specify what Tampa Bay would want in return but it’s safe to say a top-four defenseman would have to be part of the discussion.
  • Lastly, Rutherford’s colleague with the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Jesus Ortiz, argues that the Blues “fired the wrong guy” when they dismissed Hitchcock. Ortiz is of the belief the team should instead have given GM Doug Armstrong his walking papers. He points to the hiring of Mike Yeo as “head-coach-in-waiting” as potentially undermining the authority of the veteran bench boss. In the press conference following the firing, Armstrong made a reference to “independent contractors,” when describing some of the players on the team and it’s fair to wonder if that condition is related to the team’s overall approach to the handling of the coaching situation. Ortiz also suggests that allowing Troy Brouwer and David Backes to depart as free agents hurt the team both on the ice and from a leadership perspective. Additionally, the team’s decision to trade goalie Brian Elliott and install Jake Allen as the undisputed #1 seems to have backfired. Hitchcock has long been able to coax above-average play between the pipes due in large part to his strong defensive structure. That hasn’t been the case this season as each of the team’s goalies, Allen and Carter Hutton, has a S% below 0.900. However, it should be noted that Elliott is also struggling in Calgary, and there is no guarantee he would have duplicated his success from last season had he remained with the Blues.

Hartford Trying To Lure Isles to Connecticut

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In an interesting twist involving the future of the New York Islanders, the city of Hartford, formerly the home of the NHL’s Whalers, has offered the team the use of the XL Center as an “interim” home, according to local news station WFSB. Hartford has been without the NHL since 1997 when the Whalers left town and became the Carolina Hurricanes.

Connecticut Governor Dannel Malloy and Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin sent a letter to Jonathan Ledecky, Scott Malkin and Charles Wang, the Islanders ownership group, and made a compelling pitch to lure the Isles to the state. As part of their argument, Malloy and Bronin mention in the letter that Connecticut is home to more Fortune 500 companies than several existing NHL markets, including: Columbus, Raleigh, Buffalo and Nashville. Additionally, Malloy and Bronin discuss the ongoing renovations to the XL Center, including the installation of a new ice surface and dasher boards. A copy of the letter can be found here.

It’s believed the Islanders are already exploring their options as it appears the team may exercise an opt-out in their Barclay’s Center lease following the 2017-18 campaign. Even if the Islanders choose to remain, the Barclay’s Center is expected to exercise their end of the opt-out after the 2018-19 season.

While Connecticut is amenable to providing a short-term home for the Islanders, the letter also states a willingness to work with the team to become a long-term option.

Ultimately, the Islanders are unlikely to take Connecticut up on their offer. The team’s owners have indicated their desire to remain in the New York market and a move to Hartford would probably not get the backing of Gary Bettman and the league’s other owners. But, with renovations to XL Center underway, Hartford could join Quebec City as a potential expansion or relocation candidate in the future.

PHR Mailbag: Blashill, Trade Deadline, Savard

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Over the last few days, we’ve taken your mailbag questions on Twitter using the hashtag #PHRMailbag and on the site via the comments feature. Here are the inquiries for this edition of the mailbag:

@JimRouleau39: When will the Red Wings make a move on Jeff Blashill? The team seems to have no energy! And continue to beat themselves.

This season has been nothing short of a disaster so far for Detroit.  They sit dead last in the Eastern Conference and their quarter-century playoff streak is in serious jeopardy.  Despite that, I don’t suspect Blashill’s job is in jeopardy any time soon.

GM Ken Holland is quite patient and Blashill was long heralded as Mike Babcock’s successor even while he was still behind the bench for the Red Wings.  At that time, they were hesitant to grant interviews for Blashill to interview for other NHL head coaching jobs, something that doesn’t typically happen.  Blashill has been Holland’s guy for a long time now and it’s hard to see one season, as bad as it has been, cause him to change his mind.

Detroit has been hit hard by injuries this year while goalie Petr Mrazek hasn’t played anywhere near the level that he is capable of.  These are also factors that suggest that Blashill will get another opportunity next season with what may be a bit of a different looking roster.

Jay: In general would you expect less trades this deadline because of the expansion draft or will that not really have a huge impact.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see a quieter deadline this year because of the dearth of sellers and a lot of teams being capped out.  I don’t expect the expansion draft to be at the forefront at the deadline though except for the sellers who can try to plan ahead a little bit.  For the teams that are looking to contend, their focus is going to be adding the right piece(s) to help them win now and worry about sorting out their protected list later.  Most of the deadline deals are likely to be rental players anyways and it’s unlikely that those pending unrestricted free agents will be considered for protection.

For teams like Arizona, Colorado, and whoever else becomes a sure fire seller over the next month, they can determine what their list is likely to look like in June and who is most likely to be selected by the Golden Knights.  From there, they could see if a buyer would have interest in making a move for that player but beyond that, I suspect the bulk of the expansion-related deals will come after the trade deadline.

@Grade5Woolgar: Where and how is Marc Savard? Post concussion and no news since. Is he ok?

Savard is living in Peterborough, ON and is staying involved in hockey as, like many retired players, he is coaching his son at the minor hockey level.  He also has taken up golf and has qualified for a couple of tournaments on a lower professional golf circuit although his physical limitations have made it difficult for him to play a full four rounds.  He’s also dealing with some memory loss as well given all of the concussions he has dealt with, the last one coming back in 2010-11 when he last played.

This is the final year that Savard will be on the books of an NHL team as the Devils acquired him from Florida as a salary cap dump last offseason.  Once his contract expires, he will likely officially file his retirement papers.

Wild Sign Alex Stalock To Two Year Extension

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The Minnesota Wild announced that they have signed goaltender Alex Stalock to a two year contract extension.  The deal will pay him $650K on a one-way contract in 2017-18 and $650K in the NHL or $300K in the AHL in 2018-19.

Stalock is in his first season in the Wild organization after signing a one year, two-way deal with the team back in July to serve as depth behind Devan Dubnyk and Darcy Kuemper.  He has spent the season with their AHL affiliate in Iowa, posting a 14-10-0 record with a 2.56 GAA and a .916 SV%.

The 29 year old has played in 62 career NHL games spanning parts of five seasons, all with the Sharks.  He has a career 24-19-7 record at the top level with a 2.37 GAA, a .911 SV%, and four shutouts.

This contract carries greater implications beyond simply ensuring that the Wild have another veteran goalie in their system for a couple of years.  By signing Stalock now, Minnesota can leave him unprotected in the Vegas expansion draft in June, allowing them to protect Dubnyk (Kuemper is a pending unrestricted agent and ineligible to be left exposed).

AHL Announces Realignment For 2017-18

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The AHL is set to make some changes to its league structure yet again. The AHL’s president and CEO, Dave Andrews, made the annual AHL All-Star League Address this morning, and NHL.com’s Patrick Williams was on hand to relay the news. While Andrews commented on many issues across the minor league, the main announcement was that of divisional realignment coming before next season, to accommodate the movement of existing teams. The two new teams, of course, are re-located Canadian squads. The Montreal Canadiens’ affiliate, the St. John’s Ice Caps, are moving to Laval, Quebec to become the Laval Rocket. The Ottawa Senators are moving their affiliate, the Binghamton Senators of upstate New York, across the border to Belleville, Ontario.

The realignment plans come as somewhat of a surprise to many. The AHL has gone through massive alignment in recent years, with the move of many franchises to the west coast, including the rookie franchise Tuscon Roadrunners, but appeared to have found a good balance. The league is currently structured as the inverse of the NHL, with eight teams in each Western Conference division and seven teams in each Eastern Conference division, and neither of next year’s moves appears to be in conflict with that formula. While the Laval Rocket will no longer be as far east as St. John’s, Newfoundland, they will still be the most northeastern team in the league and were expected to remain in the North Division with fellow Canadian team, the Toronto Maple Leafs’ Marlies franchise. Similarly, the move from Binghamton to Belleville is not exactly a geographic jump, and the AHL Senators were also expected to remain in the North Division. The AHL has not announced the specifics of the 2017-18 realignment just yet, but if it is prompted by these two moves, it is difficult at this point to pinpoint what changes may be made.

The AHL also has to consider future changes when realigning for next season.  With the Ottawa Senators moving their team out of Binghamton to fill the void left by the OHL’s Belleville Bulls, the New Jersey Devils have jumped at a similar opportunity, announcing that the Albany Devils will replace the Senators in Binghamton, beginning in 2018-19. There is also the possibility that a 31st AHL franchise will be added as soon as next year to serve as the Vegas Golden Knight’s affiliate, and will certainly be added at some point in the next few years. Andrews briefly touched on the topic of new AHL locations, stating that the AHL will not be going to Kansas City, Missouri next year, nor have they had any talks with the abandoned Nassau Coliseum about putting a team in the Islanders’ old home. Andrews did confirm that talks of new locations are exclusive only to a new franchise right now, as there have been no discussions about moving the Vancouver Canucks’ affiliate, the Utica Comets, from New York to the west coast and the Carolina Hurricanes’ Charlotte Checkers franchise will not be moving either, but will potentially transfer to the Eastern Conference as part of realignment to better accommodate their coastal location. With many questions still yet to be answered regarding the structure of the AHL for next year and beyond, expect more news to continue coming out over the course of the next few months.

Lightning Notes: Koekkoek, Callahan, Bishop

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After trading Nikita Nesterov the other day to the Montreal Canadiens for a relatively small return, some thought that it would open the door for Slater Koekkoek’s return to the team. Don’t count on it, as Steve Yzerman told Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times yesterday.

He’s an important part of our future, and I see a very bright future for him still. So if we need a left shot or we feel Slater will come up and play a lot, then I’ll bring him back up.

That’s a good point when it comes to the former 10th-overall pick. If he’s not going to play big minutes with the club, it may be better for his development to stay in the AHL. With Victor Hedman, Jason Garrison and Braydon Coburn locked into the left-side, it doesn’t seem like there would be a lot of time for him.

  • The team is looking to pull off more moves in the near future, but one player that hasn’t been approached yet is Ryan Callahan. The injured alternate captain has just four points this season and holds a full no-movement clause in his contract. That means he’ll force protection in the upcoming expansion draft, a spot that the Lightning could really use for a different player. Players can opt to waive their NMC in order to be exposed at the draft, but since they’ve earned the right to have it in their contracts it’s hard to ask them.
  • Smith says that the team does want to move Ben Bishop if possible before losing him for nothing this summer. The upcoming free agent has had a season troubled by injuries and inconsistency but still represents a potential upgrade in net for many contenders. A two-time finalist for the Vezina trophy, Bishop holds a career .919 save percentage.
  • One of the reasons for the Nesterov trade apparently was Luke Witkowski, who the team didn’t want to lose on waivers. Instead they dealt Nesterov, who would have been a restricted free agent this summer for a team that will have a real cap crunch. Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat and Jonathan Drouin will all need new deals this summer.

Snapshots: Olympics, Waivers, Hurricanes Sale

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In what proved to be a short meeting, the NHL Board of Governors met today to discuss the 2018 Olympics and whether the league will be participating. Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly reported to Frank Seravalli of TSN that the meeting lasted just ten seconds, and said there was nothing new to report.

It’s looking more and more like the league will not be headed to the Pyeong Chang games, though some players have expressed that they will go regardless of the league’s decision. It’s hard to imagine players like Alex Ovechkin leaving their team in the middle of the season, but it may come to that. For his part, Capitals owner Ted Leonsis has said he would support his superstar winger if he did decide to go against the NHL’s wishes.

  • Erik Erlendsson of Lightning Insider reports that Michael Bournival and Gabriel Dumont have both cleared waivers today, though both are currently still with the NHL team. The two player transaction represents the latest in what will be a busy few weeks for GM Steve Yzerman. Starting on Thursday, what some believe may become a fire-sale kicked off with the dealing of Nikita Nesterov to the Montreal Canadiens. The team has a lot more work to do as it works to protect itself from the expansion draft.
  • Tampa has also re-assigned Jake Dotchin back to the AHL according to Bryan Burns of NHL.com, oddly enough without any mention of Bournival or Dumont. Perhaps something is brewing with the recently waived forwards. Dotchin has played three games for the Lightning this year and was held scoreless.
  • The Carolina Hurricanes owner Peter Karmanos told Pierre LeBrun of ESPN that he’s now willing to sell the entire franchise, not just a part of it as previously reported. Karmanos has been looking for a buyer for a while now, but has previously been quoted as saying he would guarantee it stays in North Carolina. Obviously, if he were to sell the entire thing he wouldn’t be able to make that guarantee, though he could refuse to make a deal with anyone planning on a relocation. With the Canes floundering at the bottom of the Eastern Conference and still unable to draw a decent crowd each night, perhaps relocation does fall in their future. For now, we’ll keep an eye on any potential buyers the team may be in contact with.

Snapshots: Duchene, Fleury, Philadelphia, Wisniewski

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After Matt Duchene set the hockey hot-stove on fire this morning when he reportedly told media he was open to the idea of a trade, Darren Dreger confirmed as much on TSN’s Insider Trading. Dreger reports that though Duchene is open to a deal, he hasn’t formally asked for one and GM Joe Sakic may wait until the summer to move the talented forward. Though he would likely command a hefty sum right now, the team might be able to pry an even greater package away in the summer when teams have a little more cap flexibility.

While it’s not guaranteed that this season will be Duchene’s last in Colorado, it is certainly seeming more likely. The former third-overall pick has had an up-and-down career in the NHL but certainly has the offensive talent to be a contributor for any team.

  • In the same TSN segment, Bob McKenzie spoke about the growing frustration for Marc-Andre Fleury in Pittsburgh. The former first-overall pick hasn’t played in the last seven games for the Penguins and is starting to be considered the back up. With a no-movement clause in his contract, Fleury currently has control of his future. If he doesn’t waive it, the Penguins would be forced to protect him instead of Matt Murray in the expansion draft. If Murray was available, Las Vegas would surely select him (unless a deal was made behind the scenes) making Fleury the starter again. But since the team clearly doesn’t want him as the full-time starter any more, perhaps he’ll agree to a trade in-season or before the draft to move somewhere else around the league.
  • McKenzie also reported on the Philadelphia goaltender situation, which is currently unresolved long-term. While the team has Anthony Stolarz looking closer and closer to providing NHL netminding, they have had talks about extending one of Steve Mason or Michal Neuvirth at some point before the expansion draft. The team is likely to wait until they have to though, with neither netminder really showing they deserve a long-term deal. If the Penguins weren’t bitter rivals of the Flyers, one might suggest that the two could be trading partners for the frustrated Fleury. The summer looks like it will have a handful of starting goaltender candidates available however, with Ben Bishop leading the way as an unrestricted free agent. If Philadelphia wants to move on from the Mason-Neuvirth combo, they could wait to see what is available after the season.
  • Dreger added in a separate tweet that James Wisniewski has signed a 25-game tryout with the Chicago Wolves of the AHL. “The Wiz” was playing in the KHL after not being able to secure and NHL deal this summer. The former Blackhaws, Ducks, Canadiens, Islanders, Blue Jackets and Hurricanes defenseman was once a premiere right-handed puck mover in the NHL but injuries have limited his thirties to less than a full season of games. Chicago is the AHL squad of the St. Louis Blues, who may lose a right-handed defensemen in the next month in Kevin Shattenkirk. While Wisniewski is by no means a replacement for Shattenkirk, he does add some depth on the right side should he be able to find even a sliver of his former NHL talent.

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