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Detroit’s Uncertain Future

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The Detroit Red Wings missed the playoffs for the first time in 25 years in 2016-17. Not seeing the winged wheel on the ice is something deeply unfamiliar to many, and Detroit’s management is hoping that it won’t become a trend. However, there is definitely concern going forward as to what direction the team will head. While the team is technically going through a rebuild, effectively doing so can be quite difficult when you have so many aging players taking up spots and cap dollars. There are also questions as to whether any extended period of failure would be embraced by management, as fan-site Winging it in Motown wondered earlier this month. The strategy for GM Ken Holland is going to be complicated, as fans might need to grow accustomed to losing for a brief spell if the team is to strengthen its core.

Firstly, they will need to decide which players are part of the core and which are accessory pieces. There were good signs this off-season when Holland decided to sell assets, including Thomas Vanek, Tomas Jurco, Brendan Smith, and Steve Ott. This is a solid portent that there will be future moves, but there is room for doubt. For example, the 36 year-old Henrik Zetterberg has 4 years left on his contract at $6.083 MM, while the 33 year-old Frans Nielsen was just signed to his long-term deal, good for another 5 years at $5.25 MM. Justin Abdelkader and Darren Helm still have plenty left in the tank, but at $4.25 MM and $3.8 MM respectively, and years of term, is a full rebuild truly so feasible? Niklas Kronwall is another well-paid veteran at 36 years-old, and he has two more seasons under contract.

Then there is the goaltending situation. Detroit is paying over $9 million dollars in contracts to their two tenders, both of which have had their difficulties. Jimmy Howard had what could be considered a bounceback year, posting a .927 save percentage after the awful .906 dip the season before. The caveat – he only started 26 games. The other half of the duo, Petr Mrazek, received the bulk of the starts – 50 in all. Unfortunately, his stats took a nosedive to a .901 save percentage, as he struggled mightily behind his flightless team. To complicate matters, Howard has a modified No-Trade Clause, under which he can list the 10 teams he would accept a trade. The obvious decision seems to be that they will bank on Howard going forward and try to flip Mrazek to a team in need of help in the crease – he only has one year remaining at $4 MM before he needs his contract re-negotiated. If they are unable to do so, Mrazek would likely be snagged by Vegas in the expansion draft. But management obviously showed confidence in Mrazek’s abilities this season, sticking through him despite his impressively bad statistics. Perhaps Howard is the one on the way out of Motown. But if Mrazek flounders yet again, what does the pipeline hold?

The team as a whole has already allotted $67.09 MM to 18 players (two of whom are now on LTIR), and they need to sign RFAs Andreas Athanasiou, Xavier Ouellet, and Tomas Tatar. Only two players are coming off the books, the moderately paid forwards Joe Vitale and Drew Miller, either of whom could potentially re-sign. In terms of prospects, the talented winger Evgeny Svechnikov is the most promising potential addition. He posted 20 goals and 51 points in his rookie season with the Grand Rapids Griffins and impressed with his size. Anthony Mantha continues to be intriguing, and Athanasiou definitely has the talent to take another step forward. However, there isn’t a ton of help on the horizon in terms of defense. A top-flight prospect here would do wonders for the squad going forward. With 11 picks in this year’s draft, in what is Holland’s last contracted season as GM, decisions with incredible importance lie ahead. Will Hockeytown fully commit to a long-term rebuild, or will they make runs at competing in the relatively weak Atlantic division with a mix of aging and inexperienced players?

Snapshots: McCarron, Golden Knights, Zito

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The Montreal Canadiens have sent Michael McCarron back to the AHL to play in the IceCaps playoff run. The young forward had 19 points in 32 games in the AHL this season, but spent the better part of the year either on the Canadiens’ fourth line or in the press box. After being selected in the first round (25th overall) in 2013, McCarron has yet to make a real impact at the NHL level. His size and goal scoring ability has been on display at the lower levels, but will need to find more consistency to play a regular role in Montreal next year.

For now, he’ll join St. John’s for their playoff series with the Syracuse Crunch, currently tied at a game apiece. The two teams are back at it Wednesday night as they look for a first round victory and a step closer to the Calder Cup. McCarron should give the IceCaps a big boost up front, joining other young forwards like Charles Hudon and Nikita Scherbak.

  • Vegas Golden Knights’ head coach Gerard Gallant believes that his squad will be more talented than either of the Columbus Blue Jackets or Minnesota Wild when they entered the league, telling NHL.com that they will have a better chance at getting “a few more high-end players”. While it’s true that the Golden Knights don’t have to battle with another team in the upcoming expansion draft, the Wild were lucky enough to get Marian Gaborik third overall in their first entry draft, something that Vegas will need to emulate should they want to compete in their first few years. The Golden Knights will have the most important day to-date for their franchise on Saturday when the league holds the Draft Lottery. Vegas currently holds a 10.3% chance to select first overall, and will almost assuredly be drafting somewhere in the top-5.
  • John Vogl of The Buffalo News reports that Blue Jackets’ assistant General Manger Bill Zito should be considered a candidate for the vacant GM role in Buffalo. Vogl has compiled a list of names that should be considered with many likely interviewing for the job. It includes current assistants Zito, Tom Fitzgerald (Devils), Jason Botterill (Penguins), Chris Drury (Rangers) and Norm Maciver (Chicago). It will be interesting to see if Terry Pegula and the Buffalo organization do hire someone who hasn’t held a GM position before, as he stated in a recent press conference that experience was one of the things they would prioritize in the search.

Expansion Notes: Bieksa, Sutter

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The Anaheim Ducks have taken a 3-0 lead in the playoff series with the Calgary Flames, mostly due to the success of its defense (although perhaps not in the first 30 minutes of last night’s game. Los Angeles Times’ writer Helene Elliott praises the play of veteran defenseman Kevin Bieksa, who she says put in one of his best performances of the season.

However, while the 35-year-old blueliner has been playing well leading a young, talented defensive corps, there continue to be issues on how the Ducks will handle their offseason protection list in June.

Bieksa has a no movement clause, which will force the Ducks to use one of their four defensive spots on the veteran. The team already has a bunch of young blueliners who they must protect or potentially lose to the Las Vegas Golden Knights. Even with the team using  the 4-4-1 option in the draft (four forwards, four defensemen and a goalie), the team is likely to protect Hampus Lindholm, Sami Vatanen and Cam Fowler.

However, because of Bieksa’s no movement clause, they would be forced to expose several young defenders, including Josh Manson. The Ducks may be ready to move on from him next year, but that no movement clause, as well as his $5.0MM cap hit will definitely stand in their way, unless the team can convince him to waive that.

Will Anaheim be able to convince Bieksa to waive his no-trade clause? His recent playoff success might only complicate matters, but no one in Anaheim is complaining at the moment as the Ducks look towards a sweep of the Flames tomorrow in Game 4 in Calgary.

  • The Vancouver Canucks have a similar issue about what to do with center Brandon Sutter, their veteran center. Many feel that Sutter has been a disappointment after a season in which he scored just 17 goals and 17 assists after signing a five-year deal in the offseason. That $4.375MM cap hit over the next four seasons makes many in Vancouver believe that they need to expose the high-priced center in the expansion draft or possibly trade him if that doesn’t work. Fansided Alex Hoegler suggests that the team should consider holding on to him, despite his disappointing first season. Sutter may not be proving to be a top-line center, however, but at age 28, he should be able to provide many 15-20 goals over the next four seasons and provide depth to a young team.

Editor’s Note: This article originally listed Brandon Montour as eligible for expansion. This is incorrect, as his 14 games in the AHL in 2014-15 were played under an amateur tryout and thus do not count towards his professional experience.

Expansion Requirements Still Needing Attention

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For teams outside the playoffs, preparation for the summer months starts early. Free agency, coaching staffs, prospect profiles and this year, another interesting workload: the Expansion Draft. For many teams, much of the work to prepare for the expansion draft was already done during the season. We saw extensions for players like Michal Rozsival, trades for fringe forwards like Eric Fehr, and goaltenders given contracts without ever really making an NHL impact.

But still there remains much to be done in preparation for the draft, and contracts should come out over the next month to protect teams from an unexpected loss. Each team must expose at least two forwards and one defender who is both a) under contract for 2017-18 and b) played either 40 games in 2016-17 OR a total of 70 games in 2015-16 and 2016-17 combined. They must also expose one goaltender who is either under contract for 2017-18 or will be an RFA this summer. While much of this depends on who each team decides to protect, these are the situations that will likely see a move or extension handed out before the deadline.

Arizona Coyotes

The Coyotes currently have just three forwards who could fill this requirement: Jamie McGinn, Tobias Rieder and Brad Richardson. While Richardson is an easy choice, the other two don’t deserve to be exposed even if McGinn did have a disappointing year. The easy way to solve it would be extend Josh Jooris, who qualifies but doesn’t have a contract past this season currently. Peter Holland could also be sacrificed, though it’s unclear whether the front office believes in him as a piece going forward for this team.

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Colorado Notes: Butcher, Varlamov, Iginla

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The Colorado Avalanche are still hoping to sign Hobey Baker winner Will Butcher, but the star defenseman doesn’t want a contract offer just yet. Butcher told Mike Chambers of the Denver Post that he would rather sit with Avalanche GM Joe Sakic and discuss the matter with his parents before any offer was made. That’s a reasonable ask, but it won’t assuage any fears in Colorado about him following in the footsteps of Jimmy Vesey and hitting the open market this August.

Butcher was drafted in the fifth-round back in 2013, but is now just a few months away from becoming a free agent should he decide to wait that long. He could still obviously sign with the Avalanche after seeing what else is out there, but with his continued development into an NHL-ready defender, they’d be up against several other teams in pursuit of him. The 22-year old had 37 points in 43 games this year as captain of the NCAA Championship winning University of Denver.

  • Adrian Dater of BSN Denver has been told that the team plans on protecting Semyon Varlamov over Calvin Pickard in the upcoming expansion draft. The team must select just one of their goaltenders to expose, and it apparently will be the younger, cheaper Pickard. It seems like a very odd decision, given Varlamov’s injury status and expensive contract, both of which would likely be deterrents to the Golden Knights over some of the other available goaltenders. Pickard on the other hand would cost Vegas just $1MM next season and continue to be a controllable RFA after that. Perhaps this is just gamesmanship from the Colorado front office, but losing Pickard for nothing seems like a terrible mistake by a front office who should be looking at the future.
  • Jarome Iginla hasn’t yet decided if he’ll play another season, but he wants to. In a conference call with reporters today including Eric Francis of Sportsnet, Iginla said he’ll have to wait and see what kind of offers he receives this summer but that his time with the Los Angeles Kings down the stretch has revitalized him somewhat. He seemed it, as the legendary winger scored six goals and nine points in 19 games for the Kings and showed that he is still a physical force. Amazingly, four of the six goals were game winners as he tried to drag the under-performing Kings into the playoffs. As we detailed prior to the deadline, Iginla might still have something left to give and shouldn’t be wholly judged on the disappointing first half he had with the Colorado Avalanche—just as other talented players from that team should be.

Minnesota Wild Sign UMD Defenseman Carson Soucy

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The Minnesota Wild have wrapped up an immensely successful regular season and have turned their attention toward preparing for the postseason, but the front office is still working hard to prepare for the future. The Wild announced this evening that they have inked 2013 fifth-round pick Carson Soucy to a two-year entry-level contract that will begin in 2017-18. Soucy will join the AHL’s Iowa Wild for the remainder of the season.

Soucy is coming off a strong season playing for NCAA runner-up, the University of Minnesota-Duluth. The 6’4″ 22-year-old defenseman was a dominant force skating on the Bulldogs’ top pairing as they fought for the top spot in the nation all season long. Soucy, who wore the “A” in his senior season, was a model of defensive responsibility and physical play for four seasons in Duluth. Although he lack much offensive upside, with a career-high 15 points this season, he makes up for it in a solid stay at home game.

Although the Wild are known for having one of the deepest defensive units in hockey, their strength is also their weakness in the upcoming Expansion Draft. Able to protect only three or four defenseman, Minnesota faces a conundrum with five defenseman on the roster that would be very attractive to George McPhee and the Vegas Golden Knights. Ryan Suter must be protected, but it seems likely that only two of Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin, Marco Scandella, and Matt Dumba will join him. One of the other two is prime for the picking. With that in mind, the Wild have begun stockpiling young depth options like Gustav Olofsson, Mike Reilly, and now Soucy. Assuming Minnesota is out a defenseman this summer, Soucy has a chance to make his NHL debut next season if his defensive game translates to the next level.

Vladimir Sobotka Terminates KHL Contract

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After months of speculation, Vladimir Sobotka has agreed to a mutual termination of his contract with Omsk Avangard of the KHL ahead of the April 30th expiry date. He is now free to return to North America if he wishes to sign with the St. Louis Blues, and would be eligible for the playoffs this season. This is still not a likely scenario, as even playing a single game would burn the year he owes the Blues—Sobotka signed a one-year deal in July of 2014, before bolting for the KHL. Vladimir Sobotka

The 29-year old center showed off in the KHL playoffs this year, scoring 10 points in 12 games while continuing to play a physical style. Even though he only scored 30 points during the regular season, he still could likely play an effective role on a Blues team that has turned around their season since firing Ken Hitchcock partway through. Now firmly in the playoff picture, the Blues are just playing to determine who they’ll face in the first round with the most likely scenario being the Minnesota Wild.

Sobotka was traded to the Blues back in 2010 from the Boston Bruins, and played four years for the team before his KHL departure in 2014. Now that there is a chance he may return to the NHL, he’ll have to play at least one season for the Blues before becoming a restricted free agent. The length of that season is up to the two sides, as whenever he returns he will be reinstated off the suspended list and resume the $2.725MM deal he agreed to. He is also eligible for the expansion draft, regardless of whether he burns that year now or later.

Terminating his contract early does add some smoke to the fire of his early return, but Blues’ GM Doug Armstrong has made it very clear in the past that he wouldn’t talk about Sobotka until he was back on North American soil. Losing the asset after just a few games would be unfortunate, but with the Blues looking again like they could make some noise in the playoffs, perhaps his addition could put them over the top.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Canucks Extend Jayson Megna

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The Vancouver Canucks announced this evening that they have reached an agreement on a one-year, one-way deal with forward Jayson Megna. The extension carries a $675K cap hit for the 2017-18 season and provides some job security for the hard-working veteran forward.

In the team’s press release, GM Jim Benning describes Megna as a players whose “character and professionalism” are valued by the organization. As a bottom-six depth forward, it’s the intangibles that make a major difference for a player like Megna and the Canucks clearly have enjoyed having him around in his first season with the team. The Florida native had spent much of his early pro career with the Pittsburgh Penguins organization, playing mostly in the AHL, and again skated in mostly minor league games after signing with the New York Rangers last year. In Vancouver, Megna has apparently finally found a full-time NHL home. Megna has played in 53 games for the Canucks in 2016-17, versus just four with the AHL’s Utica Comets, and has recorded four goals and four assists in that span, one point shy of his career high. Megna also does the non-flashy things well, such as checking, blocking shots, and winning battles along the boards.

However, like many minor signings this season, the Canucks are likely just posturing that this signing is for need and fit and not just for the upcoming Expansion Draft. After trading Jannik Hansen to the San Jose Sharks at the Trade Deadline, Vancouver put themselves in a position where they needed to add another body that qualifies for exposure – having played 40 games this season or 70 games over the past two seasons and having term on his contract – or else risk losing a good, young forward. With an extension signed, Megna now qualifies for sacrifice to the Vegas Golden Knights. However, don’t expect the 27-year-old grinder to be the pick. Megna appears to have found a unique fit in Vancouver, but has previously been an AHL-caliber player for all intents and purposes. The Knights will inevitably end up with quite a few players of similar talent levels, but will likely choose to go younger than the likes of Megna.

 

Toby Enstrom And The Expansion Draft

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After the Winnipeg Jets announced yesterday that Toby Enstrom underwent knee surgery and would be out for the rest of the year, it ended what has been a very disappointing season. The former 50-point defenseman had just 14 this year, easily the lowest number of his career. Broken up by a concussion and personal issues, 2016-17 has been one to forget for the 32-year old.

Next season, he’ll head into the last year of his current five-year contract likely passed by Josh Morrissey among Jets’ defenders and perhaps even the newly signed Tucker Poolman as well. His $5.75MM cap hit is hard for the Jets to swallow if he can’t get back to his previous performance, but it’s something else that may cost Winnipeg even more.

Enstrom’s contract includes a no-movement clause, meaning he’ll require automatic protection in the upcoming expansion draft should he not agree to waive it. Dustin Byfuglien also has an NMC, and Jacob Trouba and Tyler Myers clearly need protection. That would force the Jets into the eight skater option, leaving several good players available for Vegas to choose.

Even if they decided to leave the rest of the defenders—losing one of Ben Chiarot, Julian Melchiori or Brenden Kichton wouldn’t cripple the team—that means they only have four slots for forwards. When you check off Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler and Bryan Little as obvious choices, you then are left with the group of Mathieu Perreault, Adam Lowry, Marko Dano, Joel Armia and Andrew Copp available with the power to protect just one. Losing any of them without a fight would be painful, given the potential or performance they’ve shown so far.

Getting Enstrom to waive that NMC is crucial, as it would give three more spots to the Jets to keep their young forward group in tact. If he isn’t willing, it won’t be just his declining play that will leave a bad taste in the mouths of the Winnipeg faithful. For a player who has spent his whole career with a single franchise after they took a chance on him in the eighth round, he needs to do just one more thing for them—even if it does put him at risk of having to play in Vegas for a year.

Snapshots: Hobey Baker, Smith, Enstrom

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The NCAA has narrowed it down to just three Hobey Baker finalists, and two of them went undrafted. Zach Aston-Reese of Northeastern University signed with the Penguins, and already has six points in four AHL games. Mike Vecchione from Union College had 63 points in 38 games and is expected to make his decision any day now on where he’ll spend his first few professional seasons. Will Butcher, the third finalist and only defenseman, is heading to the Frozen Four with the University of Denver but is expected to be offered a contract by Colorado after his season ends.

Butcher had 36 points in 41 games, and could wait until August to become a free agent. Like Jimmy Vesey last season, Butcher would have many suitors for his services as he’s shown the ability to play at both ends of the rink and could contribute right away to an NHL team. We’ll see if Colorado can get him locked up, but the longer Denver plays the closer he gets to free agency without them even able to offer a deal.

  • John Vogl of the Buffalo News reports that newly signed Sabres forward C.J. Smith will start his professional career with the team right away and will earn a prorated version of a maximum rookie contract of $925K for this season. He’ll earn the same next season, before becoming a restricted free agent in the summer of 2018. Smith scored 51 points in 41 games this season for UMass-Lowell, and decided to leave school a year early to jump right into the AHL. He was taking rushes alongside Zemgus Girgensons and Matt Moulson today in practice, wearing #49.
  • Toby Enstrom has undergone knee surgery and will be out for the remainder of the year. The 32-year old has had a tough season, scoring a career-low 14 points while dealing with personal issues and a concussion. He has one year remaining on his current contract at a cap-hit of $5.75MM and has a full no-movement clause. It will be interesting to see if the Jets approach Enstrom to try and get him to waive it for the expansion draft, as they currently have too many defensemen to protect.

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