Snapshots: Lucic, Possible Retirees, Gretzky
Milan Lucic may have only been a member of the Los Angeles Kings for one season, but at least one teammate is sad to see him go. Right-winger Tyler Toffoli lamented the loss of “a great player, a great guy to have in the room”. Toffoli scored a career-best 58 points last season on a line with Lucic and center Jeff Carter, who posted 62 points to tie his third best career output, and best since 2011.
Lucic, of course, signed a seven-year contract worth $42MM with the Edmonton Oilers on July 1, citing a team on the rise and some rookie named Connor McDavid as his main reasons for heading north. OilersNation’s Jonathan Willis broke down how Oilers fans can expect Lucic to age over the course of his contract, and ultimately concluded Lucic will be very effective in his first three seasons, has a two-thirds chance at being effective in the next two seasons, and has a 50-70 per cent chance at posting below 30 points in his final two seasons. However, Lucic told Steve Ewen of The Province that he plans “on playing them out to the best of my ability and, hopefully, I can add another year or two once this contract is done”.
Here are some other news and notes from around the NHL:
- Speaking of players who could retire, Jared Clinton of The Hockey News explored a few big names who could be entering their final season in the NHL. We could be seeing the last of several former superstars, including Jarome Iginla, Shane Doan, Andrei Markov, and Mark Streit. Iginla has seen his point totals fall by 13 over the last three seasons. Doan has an understanding with GM John Chayka which allows him to take his time on deciding about returning or retiring, and its clear he has no interest in chasing Stanley as a rental. The KHL is a possibility for Markov, who will no longer have the speedy P.K. Subban to cover for his aging speed. Similarly, Streit has previously played in his native Switzerland, and could return next summer. Clinton also mentions the legendary Jaromir Jagr, but seeing as Jagr insists on playing until he’s 60, it’s hard to think he’ll willingly retire unless his production drops off or he suffers a serious injury.
- Finally, today marks 28 years since “The Trade”. On August 9, 1988, the Edmonton Oilers traded Wayne Gretzky, Mike Krushelnyski, and Marty McSorley to Los Angeles for Jimmy Carson, Martin Gelinas, three first round picks over six years, and most notable (or infamously) $15 million cash. Edmonton fans reacted as expected, burning the team’s owner in effigy and threatening to cancel season tickets; a Member of Parliament even suggested the federal government block the trade. The blockbuster popularized and legitimized hockey in non-traditional markets and lead to a popular comment around the trade deadline “well, if Wayne Gretzky can be traded…”
Oilers Notes: Lucic, Larsson, Talbot, McDavid, Lagesson
The Edmonton Oilers are next up on Pro Hockey Talk’s daily team series and Jason Brough identifies summer signing Milan Lucic as the Oiler under pressure for 2016-17. Considering the large contract given to Lucic and the expectation he will assume the first-line left wing spot vacated following the trade of former #1 overall pick Taylor Hall, there is certainly plenty of pressure on the menacing forward.
One could argue that Adam Larsson, the defenseman the Oilers dealt Hall for and who is expected to be a viable top pair blue liner for a team desperate to improve on the back end, is under even more pressure than Lucic. Lucic is already a finished product for all intents and purposes, and with four 20-goal seasons on his resume already, Lucic needs only perform at the level he has been over the last several seasons.
On the other hand, Larsson has yet to fulfill his potential completely, and needs to take the next step in his development in order to meet expectations. If the Oilers are going to push for a playoff spot this season they need Larsson to become the player they believe he can be.
More on the Oilers…..
- In another piece on Pro Hockey Talk, Brough talks about the up-and-down season Cam Talbot had in his first year as a starter in the league. As Brough notes, Talbot got off to a slow start through November but rebounded in December and January posting save percentages of 93.4% and 93.2% respectively during those months. Given the somewhat inconsistent nature of Talbot’s performance and his relative lack of starting experience, Brough feels the goaltending situation is still uncertain in Edmonton. It appears Edmonton will go into the season with journeyman backstop Jonas Gustavsson as Talbot’s backup between the pipes (all team depth charts can be found at Roster Resource). Given that likelihood, Edmonton will need Talbot to play at the level he did in the latter part of last season if they want to compete for a playoff spot.
- Bruce McCurdy, writing for the Edmonton Journal, discusses the progress of Edmonton defense prospect William Lagesson. Lagesson, the Oilers 4th round pick in 2014, played last season as a freshman for a U-Mass program that struggled to a 8-24-4 mark and was outscored by 62 goals. The Swedish rearguard led the teams defense corps recording a -6 plus-minus rating. Edmonton obviously needs all the good defense prospects they can accumulate and it appears Lagesson is developing into one.
- Meanwhile, David Staples, also covering the Oilers for the Edmonton Journal, penned a piece on how one publication, hockey prognosticator The Hockey Forecaster, is projecting Connor McDavid to have a Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin-like impact on his team’s offensive output. In their rookie campaigns, Crosby and Ovechkin helped their teams score 53 and 44 more goals respectively than they potted the previous season. The Oilers are predicted to tally a total of 237 goals, which would be an increase of 38 markers over their 2015-16 season total. The Hockey Forecaster also predicts career seasons from Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl and Oscar Klefbom, among others. Staples writes that those projections might be a stretch but recognizes that an elite talent such as McDavid, Crosby and Ovechkin can have that type of impact for a team. Assuming the predictions even come close to fruition then Edmonton might be able to outscore their way to postseason contention.
2015 Free Agent Signings That Didn’t Pan Out
A few of last year’s free agent signings defied the odds and actually turned into either steals for their team or at least, proved to be a solid value. A lesson taught in physics is that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. The same can possibly be said for free agent signings, evidently, as for every signing that worked out there was one that didn’t. Here’s a quick rundown on a few of 2015’s free agent busts.
- Andrej Sekera – Edmonton (six years, $5.5MM AAV) – Sekera was pursued and ultimately signed by the Oilers, a team with plenty of offensive firepower but one in desperate need of defensive help. The hope was Sekera could fill a role on the club’s top pair while providing experience and stability to a defense corps short on both. While Sekera wasn’t terrible – he did net 30 points for the Oilers – he had no positive effect on the team’s possession numbers and while they did cut their GAA from 3.45 in 2014-15 to 3.0 this past season, Edmonton still ranked just 27th in goals allowed overall. It might be unfair to pin the blame on Sekera alone but his cap hit is tied for 24th highest among defensemen, suggesting he is compensated at the level of a #1 blue liner. The Oilers are paying for a top-pair defender but Sekera performed more at the level of a #4.
- Zbynek Michalek – Arizona (two years, $3.2MM AAV) – Michalek had several good seasons over two stints in the desert and after hitting free agency following a 2015 deadline deal from the Coyotes to St. Louis, Arizona elected to bring the veteran back for another tour of duty. Like Sekera, Michalek was expected to add experience and leadership to a blue line that was populated primarily by younger players. Unlike Sekera, however, Michalek wasn’t expected to be a top pair defender. Unfortunately, Michalek had a down year, one not good enough even for a bottom pair defender. He placed among the absolute worst defensemen in the NHL in CF% (Corsi For %). His 43.9% CF% was 3.7% lower than the team average, indicating he was a significant drag on his teammates while he was on the ice. Even if a $3.2MM AAV isn’t a cap killer, it isn’t good business for a budget team like the Coyotes to pay that price for poor production.
- Antoine Vermette – Arizona (two years, $3.75MM AAV) – Not singling the Coyotes out but it’s signings like this one and the Michalek contract that likely played a role in Arizona’s offseason organizational changes. At first, re-signing Vermette after a brief stint with Chicago where the veteran pivot won the Stanley Cup, made a lot of sense. He’d had a couple of productive seasons in the desert prior to the trade and on a two-year deal, the consistent 40-point production seemed well worth the investment. However, Vermette’s play nosedived last season resulting in the team buying out the final year of his contract. On the surface, Vermette’s 38 points in 76 games falls in line with his past level of production. However, his even strength scoring rate dropped to a career low 1.04 Pts/60; a figure that ranked 315th in the NHL among forwards. Vermette also struggled in the puck possession department finishing with a CF% of just 46.3%. Vermette still can be a useful NHL player but it made sense for the Coyotes to move on from that expensive contract.
- Alexander Semin – Montreal (one year, $1.1MM) – Semin has always been a divisive figure between the traditional hockey folks and the analytically minded. Traditionalists saw Semin as a supremely talented but unmotivated player who rarely played to his potential while stat guys based his value on the terrific possession and scoring rates. Regardless, after Carolina bought him out of that ill-advised, five-year, $35MM deal last summer, nearly everyone agreed Montreal’s signing of Semin to a cheap, one-year contract was a smart move. At the least the Canadiens would get middling production for low cost. At best Semin would play up to his 40-goal ability and the Canadiens would have the steal of the summer. Semin would only make it two months into the season, scoring one goal and four points in 15 games, before Montreal decided they’d seen enough. On December 10th, both sides agreed to mutually terminate the agreement and Semin returned to Russia to finish out the year. Granted, the actual financial investment was limited, but the Canadiens desperately needed a quality scorer on the wing and counted on Semin to provide that. In hindsight, Montreal would have been better off looking elsewhere for offense.
Snapshots: KHL Brawl, Jets, Weber
The hockey world saw one of the most egregious on-ice attacks today, when noted goon Damir Ryspayev of Barys Astana attacked almost the entire Kunlun Red Star squad. After sucker-punching Tomas Marcinko from behind and knocking the Red Star forward out, Ryspayev proceeded to attack any red jersey in sight, even going after players on the bench. The game was suspended after just three minutes, and Marcinko was taken to the hospital for further evaluation.
Ryspayev is a 21-year old who has three points in his professional hockey career (stretching back to 2011-12). During that time, he’s racked up more than 500 PIM, and was suspended just a few months ago for five games following a similar incident. According to Aivis Kalnins, he has been suspended for the remainder of the pre-season, and the KHL will hold a disciplinary hearing to determine if anything further will be handed down.
- The Winnipeg Jets have hired Todd Woodcroft as an assistant coach today, joining Paul Maurice’s staff for the 2016-17 season. A former video coach of both the Washington Capitals and Team Canada, Woodcroft has spent the past three seasons with the Calgary Flames as their scouting director. Woodcroft will likely not be behind the bench, as Ken Wiebe of the Winnipeg Sun reports he’ll be the eye-in-the-sky during games. His brother, Jay, is an assistant coach with the Edmonton Oilers, meaning that the sibling rivalry will live on even after his cross-prairie move to the Jets.
- Jason Brough of NBC Sports writes about the need to keep Sergei Bobrovsky healthy for this season, stating that it’s been a focus of GM Jarmo Kekalainen this summer. The Blue Jackets have hired on Nelson Ayotte to “bridge the gap between the medical staff and the staff of strength and conditioning coach Kevin Collins“. One of Ayotte’s biggest tasks will be keeping the Jackets’ prized goaltender on the ice, as Bobrovsky is owed $21.2MM over the next three years.
- While the Montreal Canadiens have been derided for their recent move of P.K. Subban for Shea Weber, one current player is excited about his new teammate. In a recent article in the Montreal Gazette by Steve Ewen, Brendan Gallagher compares the media’s opinion with those of other NHL players: “You get two different perspectives. You get the perspective of people who don’t have to play against Shea Weber and what they understand, and you get the perspective of players from the Western Conference who tell you how happy they are to see Shea Weber leave the conference.” It’s true, those criticizing the Canadiens have no idea what it’s like to go into the corner against Weber, or try to block one of his booming slapshots, but he’ll have to prove that his declining possession numbers are an aberration and not a trend, as he’s under contract for a very long time in Montreal.
Snapshots: Keith Gretzky, Quebec Expansion, Couture
In an article appearing on Today’s Slapshot – a division of The FanRag Sports Network – Craig Morgan, who also covers Arizona for AZSports.com, discusses several topics that relate in some way to the Coyotes. Interestingly, Morgan writes about Keith Gretzky, who was recently hired as an assistant GM in Edmonton and who was the director of amateur scouting for the Coyotes from 2007 – 2011 and oversaw the team’s drafts during that time. Gretzky was hired by the Oilers in part due to his scouting experience and success running the drafts for Arizona and more recently Boston. But Morgan says Gretzky’s successes at the draft may be overstated.
Despite success in the first round, where the Coyotes selected the likes of Kyle Turris, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Mikkel Boedker and Connor Murphy, the team has struggled to find NHL talent in the lower rounds. According to Morgan, new Coyotes GM John Chayka has said a team’s ability to draft is measured in the later rounds. Clubs need to be able to identify and develop prospects outside of the draft’s first round in order to sustain on-ice success.
During his tenure with the Coyotes, the team selected 29 players in rounds two through seven, according to the article. Of that group, only four have made it to the NHL and just two are still in the Coyotes organization.
Teams typically need to draft and develop two or three NHL contributors every year in order to keep the pipeline of affordable young talent flowing. Even if your first-round pick pans out, clubs need at least one more of their selections to hit for the draft to be considered fruitful. If you aren’t hitting on your draft choices then it’s likely the team will have to go the free agent route to flesh out its roster and consequently put themselves in a salary cap bind. Teams like the Coyotes simply can’t afford to do that.
Now Morgan does go on to say Gretzky’s track record with Arizona does not necessarily have anything to do with the job he did in Boston. Nor is it an indicator of how he’ll perform as the assistant GM in Edmonton.
For more from Morgan and elsewhere in the NHL:
- Even though they were not awarded an expansion franchise for 2017-18, the group behind the Quebec bid is not giving up on bringing an NHL franchise to Quebec City. Quebec likely will eventually get a franchise, though it may not be via expansion. I believe the league wants to also place a team in Seattle and that would probably be through expansion. Quebec would then be in a position to take in a club looking to relocate. Most of the teams that have been recently linked to relocation currently reside in the East. In order to gain balance between the two conferences, expanding from 15 – 16 clubs in the West is the simplest solution, while keeping Quebec as a fallback in the event of relocation.
- In a piece for The Players Tribune, San Jose forward Logan Couture lists the six defensive players he considers the toughest to match-up against. Not surprisingly, all of his choices reside with him in the Western Conference, including one who also suits up for the Sharks. It’s hard to argue with any of his choices and it’s easy to understand the apparent western bias since he sees the guys in his own conference at least two times more often during the regular season, to say nothing of the playoffs. Brent Burns and Duncan Keith are elite players who impact the game in all three zones. Roman Josi is rapidly developing into one of the top blue liners in the NHL. Mark Giordano – Couture has a funny story about the Flames standout – might be a late-bloomer but he is undoubtedly a quality player. Finally, Anze Kopitar and Jonathan Toews may well be the best two-way pivots in the game today.
Snapshots: Blues, Hall, Seguin
The St. Louis Blues will have a vastly different look this season after a summer of big changes. In an online chat on the St. Louis Post-Dispatch website, Jeremy Rutherford chatted about some of the differences Blues fans can expect this coming season.
Regarding the Brian Elliott trade, Rutherford believed Blues GM Doug Armstrong made the trade to avoid losing him for nothing next summer when Elliott is a UFA. While the trade could go wrong if Jake Allen struggles or gets hurt, the trade makes sense, asset-management wise.
Former captain David Backes left town for a bigger contract in Boston; while Backes claimed Bruins forwards Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand convinced him to sign in Boston, Rutherford shut down that idea saying players will sign wherever is best for them and that if the Blues had offered Backes a fifth year, then it wouldn’t have mattered what Bergeron and Marchand said. As far as replacing Backes as captain, Rutherford felt it was safe to assume one of the remaining assistant captains (Alex Pietrangelo and Alex Steen) would be the new captain. The new assistant would likely be one of Paul Stastny, Jaden Schwartz, and Vladimir Tarasenko – who Rutherford believed was “pretty disappointed to not get an A last year”.
Here are some other notes from around the hockey world:
- It’s New Jersey Devils day on Pro Hockey Talk, and they have named Taylor Hall as their player under pressure this season. Adam Gretz justified the choice by saying while he knows Hall will produce, he’ll be under scrutiny because of the perception that he’s at fault for the Oilers misfortunes over the last six years and the high price that the Devils parted with to acquire him. Oscar Klefbom‘s comments about Hall and Ben Scrivens subsequent agreement will also be weighing on Hall as he looks to prove his former team and teammates wrong.
- Speaking of top picks from the 2010 NHL Draft that Peter Chiarelli has traded, Dallas Stars center Tyler Seguin says he’s ready to go for the upcoming World Cup in September. Seguin missed all but one of the Stars playoff games with Achilles and calf injuries. Seguin told Steve Hunt of NHL.com it’s been “a bit of a different summer as far as training-wise just coming off an injury, but feeling great and looking forward to the World Cup”.
Snapshots: Kunlun Red Star, Las Vegas, Scrivens On Hall
The KHL’s Chinese expansion team, Kunlun Red Star, won their first game on Saturday. Kunlun had previously played and lost their first three games against Traktor, Spartak, and Amur by a combined score of 9-3. They didn’t score until the final pre-season game.
Now, they have moved from playing in mostly empty arenas in Finland to Kazakhstan for the President of Kazakhstan’s Cup. Kunlun opened the pre-tournament action against KHL team Barys Astana in Astana. The game was reportedly very intense, as China and Kazakhstan are rivals in other sports. This game was no different; the teams combined for 196 PIM in a 3-1 Kunlun victory. The two teams meet again on Monday.
More notes from around the hockey world:
- According to a report in the Las Vegas Review-Journal, the NHL’s expansion team has narrowed it down to four potential team nicknames. However, the new franchise is having trademark issues: the OHL’s London Knights own the trademark for the name in Canada. Owner Bill Foley told the Review-Journal that acquiring the name Knights is “not economically feasible”. Foley hopes to have the name and merchandise ready for late September or early October.
- Finally, former Oilers goalie Ben Scrivens chimed in on Oscar Klefbom‘s negative comments about former teammate Taylor Hall in late July. In a yet-to-be-posted interview with Russian hockey writer Igor Eronko, Scrivens said Klefbom “would know pretty well, he played with him for a while, and I can’t say he’s wrong”. Scrivens and Hall were teammates in Edmonton for a season and a half, during which the Oilers had a record of 38-59-18.
Salary Cap Report: Pacific Division
As the hockey world takes its collective breath before the World Cup, training camps, and the regular season, most teams have checked off their boxes and marked their ledgers. Some teams are not finished building their rosters, with RFAs still to sign and trades to explore. Some teams have plenty of space to maneuver with; other teams will need to get creative to stay under the cap.
We’ll continue our Salary Cap Reports by taking a look at the Pacific Division. Of note:
- The Flames have the most cap space in their division, and second-most in the league behind the Hurricanes. However they still have to sign Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan, which will likely take up most of the $14.96MM of space they currently have.
- Anze Kopitar‘s new extension will make him the highest paid player in the NHL this season. He’ll make $14MM in real dollars this season; his $10MM cap hit is second to only Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane. Kopitar will likely only enjoy the status of highest paid in the division until Connor McDavid‘s entry-level contract expires in 2018.
- The Pacific features the four highest-paid pending-UFAs in Pavel Datsyuk ($7.5MM), Joe Thornton ($6.75MM), Patrick Marleau ($6.66MM), and Ryan Miller ($6MM). However, Datsyuk has left the NHL and will not be paid by Arizona, despite counting against the cap.
By the numbers:
- Anaheim Ducks
Cap Space Remaining: $8,407,500
Greatest Cap Hit: Corey Perry: $8.625MM - Arizona Coyotes
Cap Space Remaining: $8,847,875
Greatest Cap Hit: Pavel Datsyuk: $7.5MM (inactive)/ Mike Smith: $5.666MM (active) - Calgary Flames
Cap Space Remaining: $14,969,600
Greatest Cap Hit: Mark Giordano: $6.75MM - Edmonton Oilers
Cap Space Remaining: $9,238,833
Greatest Cap Hit: Jordan Eberle/ Milan Lucic/ Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: $6MM - Los Angeles Kings
Cap Space Remaining: $1,154,773
Greatest Cap Hit: Anze Kopitar: $10MM - San Jose Sharks
Cap Space Remaining: $995,832
Greatest Cap Hit: Joe Thornton: $6.75MM - Vancouver Canucks
Cap Space Remaining: $2,771,250
Greatest Cap Hit: Henrik Sedin/ Daniel Sedin: $7MM
Also in the Salary Cap Report series: Metropolitan Division and Atlantic Division.
NHL Announces Heritage Classic Schedule, Legends Roster
Outdoor games are becoming more and more prevelant in today’s NHL, and the league announced today the schedule for the first of such games in the 2016-17 season. The Heritage Classic will be held in Winnipeg this season, and will see the Jets face off against Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers – who were part of the very first Heritage Classic – on October 23rd, just a few weeks into the season.
Two legends teams will play on the Saturday (Oct 22), with Kevin Lowe and Dale Hawerchuk (both of whom will play in the game) announcing the rosters today. The spectacular Oilers legends squad will feature:
Dave Semenko
Wayne Gretzky (Captain)*
Mark Messier*
Glenn Anderson*
Paul Coffey*
Roster Crunch: Pacific Division
While the NHL season is still more than two months away, it seems as though most teams have finished their free agent shopping and are now focused internally on roster decisions they’ll have to make. We’ll take a look at some of the options teams will have this fall, starting with the Pacific Division.
Anaheim Ducks – 2015-16 division winners Anaheim were discussed at length last weekend, with seemingly way too many bodies than roster spots on their blueline. With between seven and ten players who deserve to be in the NHL next season (depending on how you feel about youngsters Shea Theodore and Andy Welinski), the team is still expected to make a move to shore up their forward group.
Los Angeles Kings – Like the Ducks, the Kings have quite a few options on their back-end after signing Tom Gilbert to a one-year contract. With four spots locked up between Drew Doughty, Jake Muzzin, Alec Martinez and Brayden McNabb, the last two will be some combination of Gilbert, veteran Rob Scuderi and Matt Greene. That’s to say nothing of NCAA transplant Paul LaDue who will figure into the Kings’ plans before long.
San Jose Sharks – It’s said that depth down the middle is a key to success in the NHL, and the Sharks have that in spades. It looks like they’ll go into next season with at least six forwards who are capable of playing center. Often last season the top line was made up of three of them, with Joe Thornton between Tomas Hertl and Joe Pavelski. If the team wants to move the young Hertl back to his natural position (as they did at points last season), they’ll have to find ice-time for him behind Thornton and Logan Couture.
Arizona Coyotes – The crunch has already started to affect Arizona, as the team bought out veteran Antoine Vermette recently to open up a spot for one of their young forwards. With Dylan Strome and Christian Dvorak both leaving junior after huge seasons, they’ll look to make the jump to the NHL this season. The Coyotes may ice one of the youngest lines in the league this year, if Strome ends up between Max Domi and Anthony Duclair like many have speculated. Another spot could open up if RFA Tobias Rieder ends up overseas next season, as has been rumored lately.
Calgary Flames – Will top pick Matthew Tkachuk break camp with the Flames, and where will he play? Many eyes will be focused on the second-generation NHLer this fall, as he tries to force his way onto the Flames roster. Otherwise, the Flames have some decisions to make on the blueline if Ladislav Smid declares himself healthy enough to start the season and Dennis Wideman remains on the roster. Jyrki Jokipakka hopes he did enough last season to deserve a spot, but if both veterans are around when October 12th roles around, he may find himself on the outside looking in.
Vancouver Canucks – The Canucks are one of the hardest teams to figure out in the league, as they seem caught somewhere between rebuilding and trying to contend. Outside of their top-four, it’ll be a battle for the defensemen in camp to lock up a spot. Luca Sbisa has a contract that will probably guarantee him a spot, but his diminished play and injury history makes him a poor choice for the Canucks. If they decide to contend, icing him every night ahead of younger, more effective defensemen seems unwise.
Edmonton Oilers – It’s been long said that the Oilers don’t have any defensemen, and while it may still be figuratively true based on the overall skill, the team actually has too many bodies for their back end under contract. After trading for Adam Larsson, the team has eight defenders worthy of NHL time, including Jordan Oesterle who many believe proved his ability last season. One of them though, former captain Andrew Ference, may be on his own way out as he has stated more than once he’s heading to retirement if the Oilers’ buy him out. They haven’t been able to yet because of Ference’s lingering injury, but the two sides should come to an agreement before camp.