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Edmonton Parts Ways With Analytics Guru Tyler Dellow

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Mark Spector of Sportsnet has confirmed the Edmonton Oilers will not renew the contract of statistical consultant Tyler Dellow. He becomes the second such consultant removed from his position in the last week, joining Matt Pfeffer, who was dismissed by Montreal. Ironically, both Edmonton and Montreal executed trades this summer that have been widely panned by statistical analyst types in the media.

Some may view this as a movement away from the use of advanced stats in the sport after seeing several clubs hire analysts in recent years. But I don’t see that as the case. It’s more likely that Dellow’s departure has as much to do with Peter Chiarelli not being the GM who hired him than an abandonment of advanced stats.

Pfeffer’s dismissal gained particular notoriety after a THN interview in which the former consultant seemed to suggest his vocal argument against the Weber-for-Subban deal might have led to his ouster. He also appeared to describe Weber as an “average” defenseman, a comment he would later explain via twitter was actually a description of Weber’s recent play based on one limited statistic.

Dellow was hired two summers ago, primarily at the behest of then head coach Dallas Eakins and assistant general manager Scott Howson. With Eakins long gone and Chiarelli now running the hockey operations in Edmonton, it’s probably not a surprise the club chose not to renew Dellow’s contract.

2016 Draftees Who May Play Immediately

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It’s incredibly hard for a teenager to play in the NHL, and never more than a handful of them do. That said, the 2016 entry draft has several candidates to do so this year. Here we’ll take a look at the chances that a few of the league’s top prospects make their debuts sooner, rather than later.

  • Auston Matthews – Matthews may be in the middle of a dispute with Leafs’ management over rookie bonuses, but a long-term holdout, which is rare for recently drafted players, is just about the only way he isn’t playing in the NHL next year. Matthews has the size to play in the league already, and has a year of playing with grown men in Switzerland under his belt. He also will be 19 when the season starts, rather than 18, because he was born right after the age cutoff. The last player to be selected first overall and not play in the NHL the next season was Erik Johnson, selected by the Blues in 2006. As a defenseman, Johnson was assumed to need longer to develop, and had already committed to playing college hockey.
  • Patrick Laine – Laine is expected to be one of the better goal scorers in the NHL pretty quickly, and given that, similarly to Matthews, he played in a men’s pro league last year, and succeeded at the IIHF World Championships for Finland, it would be hard to say he isn’t ready. Laine should fit in well with a strong offensive group in Winnipeg that’s getting younger and better at the same time.
  • Pierre-Luc Dubois – Dubois has a few advantages going for him. While his numbers don’t scream the type of player who hits the big leagues immediately, he’s already 6’3″ and over 200 lbs. He was also drafted by a Blue Jackets team that’s weak enough all over to provide very little competition, by a GM in Jarmo Kekalainen, who risked a lot of his reputation to select him over Jesse Puljujarvi and Matthew Tkachuk. Considering the speed with which he was signed, it’s easy to imagine him suiting up immediately.
  • Jesse Puljujarvi – Puljujarvi was one of the big three going into the draft, and the fact that he fell to the Oilers at four made some wonder if they’d just won the lottery again. Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli told reporters that, if he can play, Puljujarvi gives them “more flexibility” in their search for a defenseman. Considering another winger, Taylor Hall, was traded for defenseman Adam Larsson three days later, it’s likely Chiarelli thinks he can play.
  • Olli Juolevi – Generally, defensemen are given less opportunity to play in the NHL right away, or at least significant minutes. There’s good reason for this, since we have examples of highly drafted defensemen like Luke Schenn playing immediately, and being too overwhelmed too early to learn any more as a player. Juolevi’s opportunity mostly stems from the weakness on the Canucks back end. Since they are one of a number of teams to openly pursue balance between the left and right sides though, that means he’ll have to compete with Ben Hutton, coming off a solid rookie year, 2014 draft pick Nikita Tryamkin, and Luca Sbisa, whose contract may just be too big to put in the press box.
  • Matthew Tkachuk – Another player that will be determined by circumstances. The Flames don’t have a lot of depth up front, but they also don’t have an absolutely glaring hole. They’ve got two players who are pretty much sure things, in Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan, and then Sam Bennett looks to be on the brink. After that, there are some plugs, and there’s some guess work. Tkachuk is big enough to play right away, but he’ll likely only get a shot if he can force himself into a top six role.
  • Mikhail Sergachev – Another defenseman whose team will certainly treat cautiously. Sergachev mostly makes the list because some have called him NHL ready, and he shares that same physical maturity with the other players list here. That said, he turned 18 the day after the draft, and he’d be fighting for the last defense spot with Mark Barberio and Greg Pateryn, meaning he won’t waltz onto the team. Sergachev had some short term misfortune being drafted highly by a team that was probably too good to be doing so, but long term, this is probably better for his development.

Free Agent Profile: Dan Boyle

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Free agent defenseman Dan Boyle, who spent last year with the New York Rangers, is still searching for a contract. Boyle, 40, was ranked #42 on our list of the top 50 NHL unrestricted free agents this year. It seems unlikely he’ll return to the New York Rangers next year, despite the cap space they’ve cleared, given that they already have eight defensemen under contract, and four of them are right hand shots.

Still, Boyle has been a useful contributor his entire career, and remains so, despite going undrafted. Last year he put up 10 goal, and added 14 assists. His possession numbers were strong relative to a brutal possession team. Boyle won an Olympic gold medal playing for Canada in 2o10, and a Stanley Cup with the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2004. He’s on the smaller side, especially for defensemen, at 5’11”, but he’s always moved the puck well.

Potential Suitors

The Edmonton Oilers have been searching for help on the right side of their defense all summer, with just Mark Fayne and Adam Larsson there currently. The Toronto Maple Leafs bid for his services when he was last a free agent in 2014, and also look to need depth on defense, but the return of Roman Polak on the right side probably rules then out. His hometown Ottawa Senators could use right-side depth after Erik Karlsson, but it’s worth noting that they’ll likely give Cody Ceci every opportunity to fill the second pairing role. None of these teams seem especially appealing to Boyle, given their recent struggles. At his age, he’s likely to want to play for a serious contender.

That said, the Dallas Stars, winners of the Central division title, only have John Klingberg among right handed defensemen with significant NHL experience, though Stephen Johns, with 14 games played in the NHL, is under contract. The Philadelphia Flyers, who’ve been carrying many puck moving defensemen of late, may have a use for him. They have seven defensemen under contract, with Brandon Manning still to sign, but none outside of Radko Gudas play right handed, and several don’t appear to be locks for playing time.

Projected Contract

Boyle should be looking at a one-year contract at around $2MM, given that he’s still productive, but comes with a certain amount of risk as a 40 year-old defenseman. Still, he’s got enough rare qualities, his ability to carry the puck, his ability from the right hand side, that teams looking to balance their defense should seriously consider picking him up a a stop-gap option.

Vancouver Canucks Sign Pedan, Grenier

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According to a team release, the Vancouver Canucks have re-signed restricted free agents Andrey Pedan and Alexandre Grenier to one-year, two-way contracts. Neither player was eligible for arbitration this summer. Grenier will receive $575K ($125K in AHL) plus a $25K signing bonus, per Renaud Lavoie. Pedan will receive $700K ($100K in AHL).

Pedan, 23, made his NHL debut this season, suiting up 13 times for Vancouver.  His physical style has never lent itself to much offensive production, and it proved true in the NHL as the blueliner was held pointless in his first taste of the big leagues.

A former third-round pick by the Islanders in 2011, Pedan will be battling for a bottom-pairing spot on the Canucks this season, using his size to effectively remove attackers from the puck in his own end.

For Grenier, 2015-16 also represented his first shot in the NHL as he was called up on two different occasions during the season. He got into six total games, and didn’t contribute a point in just over eleven minutes a night.

Grenier was another third-round pick in 2011, this time by the Canucks themselves.  He faired well in the minors and tallied 130 points in 208 career AHL games. Last season, he led the Utica Comets in points with 48, and contributed 16 goals. Still probably a year away from getting a real shot with the Canucks, he’ll look to lead the Comets to another successful season.

With the contracts, the Canucks have signed all of their restricted free agents, and will now turn to any tweaks they might have for the roster going forward. With under $3MM left in cap-space, they can’t take on much more as of this moment.

(Current Canucks’ Depth Chart via Roster Resource)

Oilers Sign Jesse Puljujarvi To Entry Level Deal

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The Edmonton Oilers have signed their 2016 fourth overall pick Jesse Puljujarvi to an entry level deal reports David Staples. It is a three-year deal.

Staples wrote a glowing piece that highlights why Puljujarvi will be a significant boon to the Oilers forward lines. He does caution patience, however, as rushing a prospect who could become another cornerstone could do more damage than good. Staples suggests time with AHL affiliate Bakersfield, but fully expects him in Edmonton by the beginning of 2017.

Puljujarvi was projected to be a top three pick but fell to the Oil.  He will eventually be one of many young players counted on to power an offense without Taylor Hall, who was dealt to New Jersey for Adam Larsson. Though the Oilers needed help at the blue line (which they eventually received in the Hall-Larsson trade),  TSN reported that general manager Peter Chiarelli couldn’t pass up the chance to get the top scoring winger. Puljujarvi dazzled at the World Junior Championships last December, and had 28 points (13-15) in the Finnish Elite League.

Cap Friendly reports that Puljujarvi will receive the maximum base salary of $925,000 (which includes a 10% signing bonus) each season as well the maximum potential ’A’ bonuses of $850,000 per year.  He also will be eligible for $1.65MM in Schedule ’B’ bonuses in each of the three seasons.

Snapshots: Trades, Cullen, Hall, Callahan

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USA Today’s Kevin Allen writes today on eight teams he expects to be active in the trade market going forward, the Anaheim Ducks, Boston Bruins, Colorado Avalanche, Detroit Red Wings, Edmonton Oilers, Minnesota Wild, New York Rangers, and St. Louis Blues. While there are still several useful players left on the unrestricted free agent market, Allen suggests several teams are looking to either move out salary, or upgrade their teams via trade.

Allen suggests the Blues and Ducks would both like to add forwards, and could dangle defensemen to get it done. The Ducks have long been rumored to be willing to move Cam Fowler in exchange for forward help, and the Blues may be willing to move Kevin Shattenkirk, who is eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2017. All of the Oilers, Bruins, and Red Wings are said to be seeking defensemen, and the Oilers in particular have excess forwards who could be moved. Allen also suggessts defensemen Tyson Barrie of the Avalanche, Matt Dumba of the Wild, and Kevin Klein and Marc Staal of the Rangers may be shopped this summer. In the case of Klein and Staal, it would likely be in an effort to clear cap space, and it’s also possible the Rangers move forward Rick Nash, but his $7.8MM cap hit may make that difficult.

Elsewhere around the league:

  • Recently acquired Devils forward Taylor Hall will switch from wearing the number four to the number nine, reports Scott Lewis at Sportsnet.ca. Hall had previously worn four for his entire NHL career, but it’s retired in New Jersey for former Devils’ captain Scott Stevens. There had been a previous controversy when Hall was given the number four in Edmonton, which had been retired for former defenseman and then Oilers’ President of Hockey Operations Kevin Lowe.
  • Puck Daddy’s Josh Cooper reports today on deliberations over who will replace injured Lightning forward Ryan Callahan on the American team for the World Cup of Hockey. Cooper lists Tampa Bay’s Tyler Johnson, Buffalo’s Kyle Okposo, Pittsburgh’s Phil Kessel, and New Jersey’s Kyle Palmieri as potential replacements.
  • Penguins’ GM Jim Rutherford was quoted on Twitter by the Pittsburgh Tribune’s Bill West, saying they do have an offer out on center Matt Cullen, but suggests the money is less than his play last year would justify. Cullen, who turns 40 in November, had 16 goals and 16 assists in 82 games last year, helping the Penguins win the Stanley Cup.

Penguins Re-Sign Justin Schultz To 1-Year, $1.4MM Deal

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The Pittsburgh Penguins announced via Twitter and their website the re-signing unrestricted free agent defenseman Justin Schultz to a 1-year contract worth $1.4MM. Schultz, who was acquired from the Edmonton Oilers at the trade deadline in exchange for a third round pick in 2016, became an unrestricted free agent when the Penguins declined to give him a qualifying offer, which would have been around $3.9MM.

Schultz played 18 regular season games for the Penguins, scoring one goal, and adding seven assists. In his first shot at playoff action, he played 15 games, picking up four assists, and was a scratch for nine of the team’s first twelve playoff games. Before joining the Penguins, Schultz played 248 games for Edmonton, scoring 28 goals, and adding 73 assists, averaging 22 minutes a game.

Originally drafted by the Anaheim Ducks, Schultz starred at the University of Wisconsin, playing alongside fellow Ducks prospect Jake Gardiner. In a situation similar to that of Jimmy Vesey, Schultz went unsigned by Anaheim, and become an unrestricted free agent in 2012. He met with several teams, who saw him as an elite prospect, and chose the Oilers after a meeting with former Oilers star Wayne Gretzky.

Free Agent Profile: Luke Schenn

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Free agent defenseman Luke Schenn came into the NHL with plenty of expectations, having been drafted with the fifth overall pick in 2008 by the Maple Leafs, winning a gold medal at the World Junior championship, and cracking Toronto’s lineup at 18 years old. Since then, Schenn’s value has diminished, and he’s quickly becoming a veteran journeyman, rather than a budding star.

Initially viewed as a young bright spot on a bad Leafs team, Schenn played 70 games at over 21 minutes a night. The longer Schenn played in Toronto, the more he seemed to be questioned. He was still seen to have the potential to become a high-end NHL defenceman in 2011, when he was signed to a five year, $18MM contract. After signing, Schenn continued to struggle, and was subject of trade rumors all season, until he was dealt to the Philadelphia Flyers at the draft for left winger James van Riemsdyk.

There have been flashes along the way, and Schenn has had success playing with more skilled defense partners, such as Kimmo Timonen, or Michael Del Zotto. Like in Toronto with his draft position, Schenn faced expectations in Philadelphia based on his salary and what was given up to acquire him, and never fully lived up to them. In January, he was dealt to the Los Angeles Kings along with Vincent Lecavalier for Jordan Weal and a third round pick.

Potential Suitors

While he’s unlikely to be called a top-four defenseman, Schenn has value. He’s an experienced and capable player, and plays the right-handed. Teams looking to balance their defense pairings will take a long look at him. The Boston Bruins, for one, only have two right-handed defensemen signed to NHL contracts, and have the sort of puck-skilled left-hand shots that Schenn has seen success with, including former teammate John-Michael Liles. The Edmonton Oilers have also been speculated to be looking for a right-hand shot.

Expected Contract

Placing Schenn 30th on our NHL free agent rankings, we had projected he would receive a three-year, $8.25MM contract. Given how much of the cap space throughout the league has already been spent, it’s hard to imagine him signing for much more than $1MM for one year in an effort to rebuild his value, or provide depth to a contending team. Teams looking for size and balance may be willing to pay more, but one would have to think that if they were, it would be done by now.

Western Conference Notes: Schmaltz, Subban, Larsson

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Evidently the new Las Vegas expansion team is wasting little time getting up and running. As we mentioned yesterday, the newest entry in the Western Conference was closing in on naming the first GM in franchise history. Today we learned a press conference has indeed been scheduled for tomorrow at 1 pm PST where club owner Bill Foley is expected to announce his choice. Speculation, and that’s all it is at this point, is that George McPhee, formerly the longtime GM of the Washington Capitals and currently serving as an adviser with the Islanders under Garth Snow, will be named Las Vegas’ inaugural GM.

More from the wild, wild West:

  • Chicago GM Stan Bowman deserves a lot of credit for maintaining the Hawks presence as a Stanley Cup contender despite annual salary dumps, including this summer’s trades of Teuvo Teravainen and Andrew Shaw. His ability to constantly juggle his roster while remaining cap compliant is due to the constant infusion of affordable young talent the organization continues to find and develop. Mark Lazarus of the Chicago Sun Times profiles several youngsters who aim to make the Hawks roster for the 2016-17 season.
  • Addressing questions from the reader mailbag, Adam Vingan of the Tennessean speculates how the Predators will employ shiny new toy, P.K. Subban. Like many, I thought the Predators got the better end of the Subban-for-Shea Weber trade. Subban is an electrifying talent still in his prime at 27 while Weber would seem to be on the downside as he approaches his 31st birthday. Plus with another decade remaining on Weber’s contract with a cap hit in excess of $7.8MM per, the Canadiens took on a healthy amount of risk on the back end of his deal.
  • From the same mailbag, Vingan also deals with the same tough choices every NHL GM will have to face between now and the expansion draft; namely which quality NHL player or players will they leave exposed. The league certainly went out of its way to ensure Las Vegas will be able to add legitimate talent and a lot of teams will be in the unenviable position of allowing a good player to leave for nothing.
  • The Subban deal wasn’t the only blockbuster trade completed this summer and it may not even by the one most panned by critics. Nearly every pundit thought the Devils pilfered LW Taylor Hall from Edmonton with Adam Larsson the return going to the Oilers. But it may not be as bad as it seems. Bottom line is GM Peter Chiarelli absolutely needed to upgrade his defense corps and likely didn’t have a lot of palatable options with which to do so. Plenty of young, RFA defensemen have been rumored to possibly be available via trade but exactly none have been moved to date despite the abundant need for quality blueliners around the league. Plus, unlike those RFA’s who would need new contracts with salaries inflating, Larsson comes at the beginning of a freshly inked deal that pays him a shade over $4.1MM on average for the next five seasons. That cost control has value. Fact is, Chiarelli might have made the best deal possible at the time, even if it ends up being a net negative in the long run.

Free Agent Profile: Brandon Pirri

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Now that Shane Doan is officially off the market – although no one really expected the veteran winger to leave the desert – there are few options remaining for teams looking to add offense to their lineups. Yesterday we profiled five of the top forwards remaining in free agency that could conceivably fit the bill. One of those players, Brandon Pirri, noticably stuck out on that list due to his relative youth compared to his unemployed peers.

It’s not usually surprising that aging veterans whose best seasons are clearly in the rear view mirror might linger on the market well into the summer. In fact, many will either be forced to accept training camp invites or face the prospect of retirement. However, it’s exceedingly rare for one of the league’s most prolific goal scorers – based on rate stats – and who is still just 25-years-old, to be waiting for his next contract into the middle of July.

Pirri tallied 14 goals and 29 points last year in 61 games, splitting the season between Florida and Anaheim. The Ducks had acquired the 6-foot, 183-pound forward from the Panthers at the trade deadline in exchange for a sixth-round draft choice. The year prior, Pirri netted 22 goals in 61 contests, albeit with an amazingly low 2 assists, for the Panthers.

Over the last three seasons, Pirri has averaged 0.95 goals for every 60 minutes of ice time he sees at five-on-five play. That rate places him 30th in the NHL among all forwards who have suited up for a minimum of 120 games during that span. In terms of even-strength goal scoring prowess, Pirri is certainly among the best in the game.

Based on overall point-production, however, Pirri ranks just 203rd over the past three seasons in points-per-hour, due in large part to his 2014-15 tally of just two helpers. That ranking would seem to place him outside of a top-six role when it comes to offensive contributions.

Goal scoring is typically sought after and usually rewarded in free agency. Pirri’s continued presence on the open market is a bit of a mystery. It’s possible teams are scared off due to his low assists total from two seasons ago. Though it should be noted, if we remove that outlier from his career numbers, Pirri actually has two more assists than goals scored in his career and typically teams don’t pay as much attention to extreme statistical outliers.

Whatever the reason, it seems clear teams are hesitant about employing Pirri. He’s suited up for three NHL clubs over the last three campaigns and despite quality offensive numbers at the time of the trade, the Ducks obtained him from Florida for the lowly cost of a sixth-round draft pick. After the season, Anaheim elected not to qualify Pirri, a move that may have struck some as a bit surprising. He was eligible for arbitration and goals tend to be given extra weight when arbitrators decide on a player’s salary. It’s possible the Ducks wanted to avoid that process altogether. Nonetheless Pirri is free to sign with any team willing to give him a chance to show off his goal scoring acumen.

Potential Fits

New Jersey – The Devils finished last in the NHL in scoring this past season but have already added top-line LW Taylor Hall to the mix and expect their best returning offensive player, Mike Cammalleri, to be healthy at the outset of the upcoming campaign. A look at the club’s depth chart, courtesy of our partner site, Roster Resource, indicates the Devils have plenty of forward options so their interest in Pirri would likely be tepid at best.

Edmonton – Even though the Oilers have filled the hole they created when shipping the aforementioned Hall to Jersey by signing Milan Lucic, they could still use an upgrade over Mark Letestu at the third-line pivot position. Edmonton finished 25th in scoring and didn’t necessarily improve in that department by swapping out Hall for Lucic.

Columbus – If the Blue Jackets are ever able to offload winger Scott Hartnell they could be in the market for another goal scorer. But it’s possible the team would rather reinvest any savings from a Hartnell move into their defense as they have a number of quality forward prospects ready to make the jump to Columbus.

Los Angeles – Currently the Kings list Dwight King, Kyle Clifford and Dustin Brown as top-nine wingers. King’s career best in the goal socring department is 15 while Clifford has never tallied more than seven in any single season. Meanwhile, Brown’s days as a productive player capable of adequately manning a top-nine role may well be over. On a cheap contract the Kings could make sense for Pirri.

Expected Contract

Considering Anaheim passed on qualifying Pirri at just more than $1MM annually and given how late in the free agent season it is now, it’s not likely Pirri is going to find a deal representing much of a raise over the $925K he earned this past season. As such, a team like the Kings might be a terrific fit for Pirri on a one-year, make good deal at right around $1MM.

 

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