Snapshots: Oilers, World Cup, Hudler
Mark Spector of Sportsnet wrote today about the Oilers’ player evaluation failures, identifying it as the main cause of their ten-year playoff drought. Spector notes the decisions to let go of former Vice President of player personnel Scott Howson and analytics guru Tyler Dellow, and naming Keith Gretzky assistant general manager. Spector argues that Keith Gretzky has had a successful run as part of the amateur scouting staff for the Phoenix Coyotes and Boston Bruins. Bruins’ beat writer Joe Haggerty tweeted today pointing out that while his tenure with the Bruins was relatively short, Gretzky’s first pick was scoring forward David Pastrnak.
The article also defends General Manager Peter Chiarelli from the suggestion that Dellow’s release is a rejection of analytics. Saying that it was a “deliveryman issue,” Spector says that there will still be Oilers’ staff working in analytics. Those who remember Dellow’s writing before joining the Oilers will likely remember the trades of Jeff Petry, Martin Marincin, and Taylor Hall, and wonder how much input he’s had.
Here are more links from around hockey:
- Insuring players for international tournaments is a critical issue for league participation. Gary Lawless tweets today that should unsigned players like Johnny Gaudreau, Jacob Trouba, or Sean Monahan still be without a contract, they will be insured at the league and players association’s expense. Several players sat out the 2004 World Cup because the coming lockout delayed contracts, and complicated the insurance issue.
- TSN analytics writer Travis Yost makes the case today for a team to sign free agent forward Jiri Hudler. Hudler, 32, had 16 goals, and 46 points in 72 games with the Flames and Panthers last season, but had just one assist in six playoff games for the Panthers. Yost’s case, somewhat unconventional for an analytics writer, is based heavily on Hudler’s ability to improve his team’s shooting percentage.
Oilers Shuffle Front Office
The Edmonton Oilers officially announced a handful of changes to their front office on Tuesday. Headlining the announcement was the hiring of Keith Gretzky as Assistant General Manager. Gretzky had previously been a part of the Boston Bruins scouting staff, and most recently held the title of Director of Amateur Scouting. While many have criticized his uneven draft record, he was responsible for several solid picks like David Pastrnak. He will also have Bob Green, the Oilers Director of Player Personnel, to help manage the draft; Green has helped the Oilers with some great picks outside the first round, like Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, and Ziyat Paigin.
Gretzky replaces Bill Scott as AGM, while Scott moves to the role of Cap Manager. This was part of his previous job description, so he’ll have a smaller role than before.
Former pro scout Duane Sutter was promoted to Vice President of Player Personnel. Sutter was part of the team that advised Chiarelli on additions like Cam Talbot, Patrick Maroon, and Zack Kassian. Kelly Buchberger, the former Oilers captain, assistant coach, and manager of player personnel was also promoted to VP of Player Development.
The team also brought a handful of new scouts on board, including Frank Jay, who worked with Chiarelli in Ottawa and drafted Jason Spezza among other notables; and P.J. Fenton, who is new to the scouting world. The 30-year-old was a 5th round pick of the Sharks in 2005 and played in Europe from 2009-16.
Meanwhile, Scott Howson, the former Senior Vice President of Player Personnel, has “moved on to explore other opportunities”. Howson served as the Oilers AGM from 2001-07 before leaving to manage Columbus. He returned to the organization in 2013 and spent his first two seasons as the Oilers’ Vice President of Hockey Operations; he was shuffled down the hierarchy when Peter Chiarelli was hired after the team won the 2015 NHL Draft Lottery.
The Oilers also confirmed they will not renew the contract of analytics guru Tyler Dellow. We previously reported about Dellow’s release in July, when it was confirmed by Sportsnet’s Mark Spector.
Snap Shots: Vermette, Havlat, Oilers, Vegas
Yesterday, Arizona Coyotes GM John Chayka made the somewhat surprising decision to place veteran center Antoine Vermette on waivers for the purpose of buying out the final year of his contract. By all accounts Vermette didn’t have his best season in 2015-16 but still netted 38 points, including 16 on the power play, in 76 games. But in the club’s release announcing the move, Chayka cited the desire to give opportunities to some of the organization’s young players, including perhaps top prospects Christian Dvorak and Dylan Strome.
Regardless of why he’s now available, a player with Vermette’s track record is likely going to draw a fair amount of interest from other clubs. However, the Boston Bruins should not be among those teams, at least that’s the opinion of Joe Haggerty writing for CSNNE.com.
Haggerty argues that signing the 34-year-old Vermette doesn’t mesh with the Bruins’ desire to get younger. I’d argue there isn’t much of a fit in Bean Town since the Bruins already boast Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci at the center position. The team also added David Backes as a free agent and he comes with plenty of experience in the middle. Even if they decided to play Backes on the wing, Boston lists 24-year-old Ryan Spooner as a center and he is coming off a career high 49-point season. There just doesn’t seem to be room for Vermette on this roster.
Now, more from around the league.
- The list of available free agents may increase by one as Allan Walsh, the agent for former NHLer Martin Havlat, has indicated via tweet his client is currently training with HC Kometa Brno in the Czech League with the intent of returning to the NHL next season. Havlat appeared in just two contests for the St. Louis Blues in 2015-16 before leaving the club for “personal reasons.” He had earned a job with the team after signing a PTO in October. Prior to his abbreviated stint with St. Louis, Havlat had skated in 788 NHL games, spending time with Ottawa, Chicago, Minnesota, San Jose and New Jersey. At one point Havlat was one of the league’s top young offensive players, tallying 31 goals and 37 assists for the Senators in 2003-04, playing most of the season as a 22-year-old. Those prolific scoring days are long gone and in recent seasons Havlat has produced roughly 0.5 Pts/Game. That doesn’t mean a team won’t take a flier on the talented Czech in hopes he can produce even at that level and hold down a regular spot in their top-nine on the cheap.
- The expansion Las Vegas franchise continues to assemble its front office staff with the club announcing the hiring of Kelly McCrimmon as assistant general manager. McCrimmon, has been the majority owner, GM and head coach of the Brandon Wheat Kings of the WHL. He has won the WHL’s Executive of the Year award three times since 1995. It was reported earlier this summer that Las Vegas had requested permission from Washington to interview their assistant GM, Ross Mahoney, for the same role. Of course GM George McPhee knows Mahoney well from their days together in the Capitals front office so the potential fit was obvious. It’s not known whether Washington refused permission for Vegas to speak with Mahoney or if the club just elected to go in a different direction.
- In other management news, the Edmonton Oilers are expected to name Keith Gretzky as an assistant GM, a recent rumor all but confirmed via tweet from Bob McKenzie of TSN. Gretzky is of course the brother of Wayne and has served as the director of amateur scouting for the Boston Bruins, where he worked under current Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli. Obviously Gretzky made a good impression on Chiarelli during their time together in Boston.
Debunking Klefbom’s Comments On Hall
As reported earlier today, Edmonton Oilers defenseman Oscar Klefbom had some interesting (and somewhat unfounded) remarks about former teammate Taylor Hall when asked about the blockbuster trade earlier this summer that sent Hall to the New Jersey Devils for a potential new defensive pair mate for Klefbom, Adam Larsson. As translated from Kelfbom’s native Swedish, he stated that “Taylor has been our best player in recent years, but it’s also hard to tell what he has contributed. He never played his best games against the tougher teams, when we really needed it. However, he was fantastic when we met the little inferior teams.” That is a lot to take in, as Klefbom both praised and criticized the 2010 first overall pick, who had been met with mostly praise and little criticism during his time in Edmonton. While it’s easy to take a teammate’s word when it comes to the analysis of a player, that’s not always fair. Instead, we have numbers. Take a look at each of Klefbom’s arguments from a statistical point of view:
“Taylor has been our best player in recent years” is hardly up for debate. Hall was taken #1 in the 2010 NHL Entry draft and stepped right into a top six role as the new face of the Oilers. In his rookie year, he led Edmonton in goals with 22 and was tied for second in points with 42, just one notch behind Jordan Eberle. In 2011-12, Hall again finished behind only Eberle, recording 53 points in 61 games. The lockout-shortened 2012-13 season proved to be the breakout campaign that Hall needed to assert himself as the best player on the Oilers and an elite NHL power forward. In 45 games, Hall scored better than a point per game, leading the team with 50 points, 12 points more than Sam Gagner in second and 13 more than Eberle in third. Hall continued to produce at more than a point per game clip in 2013-14, with 80 points in 75 games, good enough for sixth in the NHL in scoring. Meanwhile in Edmonton, only Eberle was able to finish within 20 points of Hall. Hall suffered his first career setback in 2014-15, as injuries limited him to just 53 games and 38 points. Astoundingly, 38 points was all he needed to finish third on the team in points, behind Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. He got back on track last season, leading the team in points with 65, and greatly improving his defensive game and physicality with career highs in hits, blocked shots, and penalty minutes. Six straight seasons of finishing in at least the top three in scoring in Edmonton and even finishing in the top ten in scoring in the NHL twice means that there is no question that Taylor Hall has been the Oilers’ best player in recent years.
“It’s hard to tell what he has contributed” and “he was fantastic (against) inferior teams” are two statements that can only be taken with a grain of salt. The numbers clearly show what Hall has contributed to the Oilers in his first six seasons, but Klefbom is not incorrect in implying that those contributions have not been enough to change the success of the team. The highest that Edmonton has finished in the NHL league standings since drafting Hall is 24th, and that was the lockout-shortened season. It was also Hall’s best per-game season to date, so there may actually be some correlation there that proves Klefbom wrong. Other than that though, the Oilers finished last in Hall’s rookie year in 2010-11, have two second-to-last (29th) finishes, and have two third-to-last (28th) finishes. The fact is that as good as Hall has been, it has not been enough to single-handedly right the ship in Edmonton. Did anyone expect him to do so? Hall was the first of four first overall draft picks that the Oilers have had in the past seven years, and only now does one of those players, Connor McDavid, actually have the pieces around him to maybe turn the franchise around. Hall entered a situation where even as a rookie, he was hands down the best player on the team, and no talent was ever brought in that could rival his. Had the Oilers taken Tyler Seguin (selected #2 in 2010) instead of Hall, the results likely would have been the same in Edmonton, and Hall would likely be a valued piece of the Boston Bruins’ core. Questioning what Hall has contributed because his strong numbers have not made the Oilers a playoff team is more of a commentary on the ineptitude of team ownership and management than anything.
As for “inferior teams” during Hall’s tenure in Edmonton: there are none. Oscar Klefbom entered the league in 2013-14 and since then could have only seen Hall and the Oilers play against four “inferior teams”: the Buffalo Sabres in 2013-14 and 2014-15, the Florida Panthers in 2013-14, the Arizona Coyotes in 2014-15, and Toronto Maple Leafs in 2015-16. However, if you total the points of all 30 NHL teams in the six years that Hall has been playing, no organization has been “inferior” to the Edmonton Oilers. Edmonton has only 380 points during that time span, 40 less than the next-worst, the Sabres. In fact, only nine teams have been less than 100 points better than the Oilers since the start of the 2010-11 season. So in reality, nearly any team that Klefbom claims Taylor Hall has played “fantastic” against has been a superior team to his own.
Finally, there is the allegation that Hall “never played his best games against the tougher teams, when we really needed it.” Unfortunately for Klefbom and the Oilers, every team has been “tougher” for years now and they haven’t “needed” a win in the traditional sense of a playoff contender in a long time. However, if Klefbom’s belief that Hall does not play to the same level against playoff-caliber teams as he does against others holds weight, than that is a legitimate concern about Hall and a fair assessment by Klefbom, rather than just an insult hurled by a scorned ex-teammate. But that is simply not the case. Pittsburgh, Chicago, St. Louis, Boston, Anaheim, the New York Rangers, Washington, San Jose, Los Angeles, Detroit, Vancouver, and Tampa Bay make up the top dozen NHL teams in total points since Hall’s playing days began in 2010. Against those twelve teams, Hall has 135 career points in 175 career games, better than .75 points per game. If you take away a lack of success against some unfamiliar Eastern conference foes in the Bruins and Capitals, that rate jumps up to over .8 points per game. Counter to Klefbom’s assumptions, Hall has actually been dominant against some of the league’s best teams like the Blackhawks (22 points in 18 games), Sharks (20 points in 22 games), and the division rival Canucks (26 points in 29 games). While he has also been wildly successful against lesser teams like the Colorado Avalanche and Calgary Flames, there seems to be no noticeable drop-off in production over the course of Hall’s career between “good” teams and “bad” teams.
Klefbom has never been known to be outspoken or a locker room problem, and his comments may have been lost in translation or simply just misguided by emotion. Regardless, the positive remarks about Hall being the best player in Edmonton ring true, while the accusations that he plays poorly against stronger competition and better against weaker competition seem to be unfounded based on his scoring numbers. Sorry Oilers fans, Taylor Hall is still an amazing player, and will likely continue to excel in his new home with the New Jersey Devils.
West Notes: Klefbom, Henderson, Benn
In a translated interview with Ola Winther of Hockey Sverige (Sweden), Oilers’ defenseman Oscar Klefbom was quoted talking about Taylor Hall and the impact he made last season: “He (Hall) never played his best games against the tougher teams, which we really needed it. However, he was fantastic when we met the little inferior teams.”
While this quote obviously might have been slightly lost in translation, the overall sentiment of it has been shared many times over recently by fans and media alike surrounding Hall’s exit from Edmonton. As seems to be the building tradition when a star player is traded or leaves in free agency, Hall’s weaknesses have drawn more focus than his strengths, despite his obvious offensive talent. New Jersey won’t be focusing on the weaknesses however, as they’ve created a solid young group of forwards that will be capable of putting up vast amounts of points next season.
For a team who ranked dead last in goals for last season, the Devils will take some defensive lapses to get Hall’s elite scoring ability. For the record, Hall scored 23 points in 28 games (0.82 PPG) against teams who finished in the top-10 of the league last season. He had 42 in the remaining 54 (0.78 PPG).
- In saddening news related to last season’s Dennis Wideman incident, there is now some doubt that NHL linesman Don Henderson will be able to continue his career on the ice. According to Kevin Paul Dupont of the Boston Globe, friends close to the situation have told him that Henderson underwent surgery to repair two ruptured disks in his neck, and is unsure whether he’ll officiate another NHL game. The friend is quoted as saying “He attacked him from behind, the puck was nowhere near the two of them, and now Henderson’s career may be finished. I don’t see much difference between what he did and Wayne Maki cracking his stick over Teddy Green’s head.’’ Wideman is still involved in a dispute over the suspension that was shortened by an arbitrator last season.
- Many teams hoped that Jamie Benn was headed for free agency after next season, but after the Dallas Stars’ captain re-signed for another eight years, he’s sure to be in green for a while. Benn told Mike Heika of The Dallas News that he “didn’t have even one thought of leaving this place. I fell in love with Dallas, Texas ever since I got down here.” Benn ranked second in scoring last season, and has three straight 30-goal seasons. He’s under contract now through 2024-25, and should go down as one of the best Stars of all-time, should he continue his current path.
Jaedon Descheneau: David Desharnais 2.0?
The Bakersfield Condors, the AHL affiliate of the Edmonton Oilers, announced today that they have signed free agent forward Jaedon Descheneau. While he may not be a household name just yet, Descheneau is certainly a player for hockey fans to keep an eye on and could soon turn his AHL contract into an NHL gig in Edmonton.
Descheneau was originally a fifth round pick of the St. Louis Blues in 2014, selected after his second season for the Kootenay Ice of the WHL in which he scored a career-best 44 goals and had 98 points in just 77 games. The following season he had 81 points to bring his three-year total to 257 points in 209 games. However, he missed all but two games of the 2015-16 campaign after suffering a shoulder injury that required season-ending surgery. At just 5’9″, Desheneau has received a lot of criticism and doubt due to his stature. Adding into the mix a serious injury, the Blues made the decision not to extend the young scorer an entry-level contract, making him a free agent.
The Condors have now capitalized on his unexpected availability and have added a proven sniper to their roster. In his junior days, Descheneau showed a consistent scoring punch, finishing second only to super-prospect Sam Reinhardt in team scoring in 2013-14 and finished sixth in the entire WHL in scoring in 2014-15. He has also shown that he is capable of a two-way game, always finishing on the plus side in his three full seasons in Kootenay and not letting his size hinder his play in the physical WHL.
If Descheneau can get healthy and add some size and strength to a short, slim frame, the Condors (and by association the Oilers) may have found a diamond in the rough in a young player with offensive instincts and scoring talent. An undersized prospect getting his start with an AHL contract and then developing into a reliable NHL contributor is not unheard of; just ask David Desharnais. A dynamic player in the QMJHL, Desharnais was ultimately still written off because of his 5’7″ stature and went undrafted. After proving himself with the Canadiens’ AHL affiliate, he joined the big league club and the rest is history. That scenario does not seem far off for Descheneau and the Oilers. Don’t let his humble beginnings fool you; Jaedon Descheneau has all of the makings of a dark horse NHL star.
Snapshots: Kane, Elliott, Mrazek, Hrivik, Gormley
Evander Kane‘s most recent legal woes has led to speculation Buffalo could look to move the talented yet troubled forward. One potential suitor might be the Vancouver Canucks, who are thought to be interested in adding a scoring line winger. Kane of course is a B.C. native and played his junior hockey as a member of the Vancouver Giants of the WHL. Along those lines, Ben Kuzma of the Vancouver Sun makes the case the Canucks need a player of Kane’s ilk and should pursue a trade. Meanwhile, Jason Botchford, writing for The Province, takes the opposite position and lists five reasons the club should avoid Kane.
It’s hard to imagine Buffalo being able to find a trade partner at this point, at least until Kane’s legal issues are resolved. For one, the NHL is monitoring the situation and while they say they aren’t considering punishment for Kane, the possibility of such can’t be dismissed pending the results of the criminal proceedings. Second, at this point in the summer most clubs are capped out, making a move to acquire Kane and his $5.25MM cap charge difficult to complete.
More notes emanating around the NHL…..
- After finishing dead last in the league in both save percentage and goals against average, the Calgary Flames completely turned over their goaltending position, dealing for Brian Elliott at the Entry Draft and signing Chad Johnson as a free agent. The duo replaces the combination of Karri Ramo, Joni Ortio, Niklas Backstrom and Jonas Hiller between the pipes for the Flames. Elliott, the presumptive starter, was introduced to the Calgary media Wednesday and wasted little time endearing himself to the followers of his new team.
- The recent signing of RFA Petr Mrazek has pushed the Red Wings to a figure almost $5MM over the 2016-17 salary cap ceiling. As my colleague, Nate Brown, wrote earlier this morning, the concern is that GM Ken Holland has invested too much of his resources in role players and/or rewarding his own to exorbitant contract extensions. While the concern may be warranted, the Red Wings immediate issue is becoming cap compliant ahead of the start of the upcoming campaign. But as MLive’s Brendan Savage writes, the Wings will likely place veteran forwards Johan Franzen ($3.95MM cap hit) and Joe Vitale ($1.12MM cap charge) on LTIR, thus freeing up just more than $5MM in space and bringing the Red Wings into compliance.
- The New York Rangers have come to terms with their lone remaining RFA, agreeing to a new contract with F Marek Hrivik, per the club’s website. According to Larry Brooks of the New York Post, Hrivik received a two-way deal which will pay him $600K at the NHL level. Hrivik will go to camp and have an opportunity to compete for one of the final forward spots for the Rangers, though it’s likely he will again spend most of the year in the minors. Last season Hrivik saw action in five NHL games, picking up his first career point. In 68 AHL contests with Hartford, Hrivik netted a career-high 41 points and 29 assists.
- Former first-round pick Brandon Gormley has agreed to join the New Jersey Devils on a one-year contract worth $650K at the NHL level. Gormley, selected 13th overall in 2010 by Arizona, spent last season as a member of the Colorado Avalanche organization following a September trade. In 26 NHL games this past season, Gormley notched a single assist and recorded eight PIMs. Gormley looked to have a bright professional future after an accomplished junior career. He played for a QMJHL championship club with Moncton in 2010 and won a Memorial Cup as a member of Shawinigan in 2012. He has yet to translate his amateur success into a regular role in the NHL and looks to be earmarked for depth duty in the Devils organization.
Snapshots: Predators Defense, Elliott, Yakimov
The Nashville Predators bolstered their already-impressive defense on Wednesday with the Matt Carle signing. While Carle is no longer the top-four defenseman he once was, he remains a decent bottom-pairing option. His time in Tampa Bay came to an end after he was passed by younger and cheaper players. Carle said he’s excited by the chance to play under coach Peter Laviolette, with whom Carle enjoyed his best seasons in Philadelphia. He’ll play with younger pros like Petter Granberg on the third pairing of what very well could be the best defense in hockey:
Roman Josi – P.K. Subban
Mattias Ekholm – Ryan Ellis
Carle – Petter Granberg/ Yannick Weber
The top pairing consists of a Norris Trophy-winner and Josi, who has been as good or better than former partner Shea Weber for the last couple seasons. Dynamic offensive defenseman Ellis and the two-way Ekholm form a dependable and competent second pairing, and now the veteran Carle will anchor a third pairing.
In other news from around pro hockey:
- The Calgary Flames introduced new starting goalie Brian Elliott today. Elliott said he’s looking forward to getting settled and playing in front of a young and skilled Flames team on the rise. He went 23-8-2 in 41 appearances with St. Louis last season, posting a 0.930 save percentage and a 2.07 GAA. Elliott will wear number one in Calgary.
- The Edmonton Oilers have loaned prospect Bogdan Yakimov to HC Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk of the KHL. The monster center (6’5, 203 lbs) appeared in one NHL game (October 2014 versus Los Angeles) in two pro seasons in North America. He posted 43 points in 93 AHL games in that time, which included an 11-game stint in with Nizhnekamsk last season before returning to the AHL. Yakimov has one year remaining on his entry-level contract. It’s not yet known what the Oilers will do with Yakimov; in the past they retained the rights to KHL-bound Roman Horak and Philip Larsen, but terminated Toni Rajala‘s contract for wanting to play in Europe.
Oilers Notes: Captain Candidates, Larsson
Who will be the Oilers new captain? Chris Wescott writes that the Oilers have a multitude of players who could sew the C on the sweater. Last season, Andrew Ference, Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins all served as alternate captains by committee and definitely deserve a look. But what about Connor McDavid?
While Wescott confirmed that head coach Todd McLellan would indeed name a captain this season instead of having a plethora of alternate captains, Jared Clinton of the Hockey News penned an article back in April anointing McDavid as the most logical choice for captain. Clinton writes that McLellan extolls the winning and leadership virtues that McDavid displays and goes onto report that the 19-year-old center didn’t crumble under the expectations of a success-starved city weighing on his shoulders.
Clinton speculates that had McDavid played a full season (he broke his clavicle in November which sidelined him for close to three months), his projected performance could have been around 80 points. Though McDavid appeared in 45 games, he was slightly over a point-per-game player as he notched 48 (16-32). Aside from performance, both his head coach and general manager have vouched for his leadership qualities, making him the favorite. Naming a young captain wouldn’t be an oddity as Clinton points out that Jonathan Toews, Sidney Crosby, and Gabriel Landeskog all wore the C very early in their respective careers.
In other Oilers news:
- Wescott also reports that McLellan expects newly acquired defenseman Adam Larsson to play against top competition come October. McLellan doesn’t expect Larsson to be a force on the score sheet, but instead, expects that he will “grow his game” along with the rest of the younger Oiler players. McLellan also urged patience with the young Swedish defenseman who many forget is only 23. The Oilers bench boss is more interested in making sure Edmonton’s new acquisition is comfortable in his new surroundings, and isn’t measured simply by who the Oilers traded to get him. Instead, Wescott writes, McLellan will only add pressure as Larsson’s comfort level increases.
Current Trade Candidates (Part Two)
Now almost a month into free agency, the NHL off-season is nearing a point where the flow of transactions, once a raging river of signings during the first few days of July, will slow down to only a trickle. A few notable unrestricted free agents remain unsigned, a handful of young restricted free agents are set to still be extended, and arbitration cases continue to be settled prior to their hearings, though perhaps one of two will come to fruition. However, the days of big signings are over; all remaining deals handed out will either be expected, in the case of RFA’s, or underwhelming, for the UFA’s lucky enough to even find a new home. So what off-season excitement is left for hockey fans to follow? The trade market. August often brings a change of mindset for many NHL front office executives, from adding free agents before someone else scoops them up, to instead subtracting from the current roster as the season nears and cap space, depth, and even character concerns become more clear and focused as opening night approaches. We’ve already touched on the talented and troubled Evander Kane, the inevitable move of Marc-Andre Fleury, and the cap-strapped Red Wings. The following players are a few more who have had their names floated around the trade market all summer, and the next few weeks could bring a change of scenery to one or more:
Valterri Filppula, Tampa Bay Lightning
Given the salary cap crunch of the Lightning, as well as their talent and depth up front, and in particular down the middle, Filppula seems like a very “tradeable” player. With nearly $8.5MM in cap space still available, it seems like the Bolts shouldn’t be too panicked about their situation, right? Wrong. Still to be signed by Tampa are young forwards Nikita Kucherov and Vladislav Namestnikov, as well as arbitration-bound defenseman Nikita Nesterov. One side effect of having a great young core of players is the struggle to re-sign them, and this off-season, sacrifices must be made. Kucherov alone should command between $5-$6MM or more per season (depending on the length of the deal) and Namestnikov and Nesterov easily combine to go way over the remaining few million in cap space. Unless the Lightning make the bold choice to move one of these restricted free agents, a veteran will have to be moved off the team, and it will be someone that carries a decent cap hit. Enter Filppula, who at 32 can still produce and plays a solid two-way game. A contender with ample space or a young team in need of some veteran leadership and defensive stability up front could both use his services, unless the $5MM price tag is too much for them. He presents the Lightning’s best chance at relieving their cap troubles without significantly effecting the team, but they must first convince someone that the price for Filppula is worth it, as trading him and holding on to contract dollars makes no sense. Filppula will continue to hear his name batted around the rumor mill, and if a team falls in love with him like Tampa Bay did, he could be on his way elsewhere for 2016-17.
Braydon Coburn, Tampa Bay Lightning
If the Lightning are unable to move Filppula and unwilling to move any other forwards, they would turn next to the defense, where Coburn is the prime trade candidate. Although Jason Garrison represents the least value for production on defense, with only 11 points last season despite being pegged as an offensive defenseman, other teams can see that as well. Garrison and his $4.6MM cap hit are essentially untradeable. Coburn on the other hand, is a reliable stay-at-home defenseman, who may not be a perfect fit in Tampa but has great value on the market. The Bolts would risk losing arguably their strongest defensive player if they choose to move Coburn, but they would also get plenty in return and his departure would allow younger defenseman like Nesterov, Andrej Sustr, and Slater Koekkoek to have guaranteed playing time all season long. The goal for any team that is up against the cap is to gain the space and flexibilty necessary while reducing the negative impact on the team. While Filpulla and Garrison would hurt the Lightning less, Tampa Bay may be forced to move Coburn and suffer the consequences because he is easier to trade than the other two and would give the team $3.7MM in space that they desperately need.
Ben Bishop, Tampa Bay Lightning
Bishop, of course, is the crown jewel of Tampa’s trade candidates. As one of, if not the best goalie in the NHL, it would be hard to find a team that wouldn’t be at least somewhat interested in acquiring him. He will be an unrestricted free agent after this season, but could be appealing as both a relatively cheap one-year rental at $5.9MM or a steal for a team willing and able to give him a long-term extension worth somewhere in the arena of eight years and $64M before they have to battle it out in free agency. Either scenario will likely draw interest from the Dallas Stars, who we’ve already connected to both Jimmy Howard and Marc-Andre Fleury, but who have shown special interest in Bishop. While the Lightning don’t necessarily have to get rid of the likes of Filppula or Coburn, they do have to eventually say goodbye to Bishop, as they can’t keep both he and the recently-extended Andrei Vasilevskiy through next summer’s expansion draft. The only question that remains is whether Tampa Bay wants to hold on to Bishop for one last run at the Cup with him in net and then let him walk in free agency, or trade him away and get a very impressive haul in exchange from Dallas or another interested team. The Bishop trade winds will not be dying down any time soon.
Nail Yakupov, Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers have already traded one past first overall pick this off-season, but don’t be shocked if another moves on. Yakupov has not come anywhere close to reaching the playing level of former teammate Taylor Hall, but still holds some trade value despite his “bust” label. Still just 22 years old, the former Sarnia Sting star who was taken #1 in 2012 has seemingly gotten worse and worse every year since his rookie season. That year he had 31 points in 48 games, not to shabby for a rookie, but has since followed it with two mid-twenties point totals in sixty-odd game seasons in 2013-14 and 2015-16, sandwiched around only 33 points and a -35 rating in 81 games in 2014-15. A change of scenery seems imperative for Yakupov at this point, as he has not found a fit in Edmonton, and the Oilers would be smart to trade him while he still has any value left and not fall victim to a sunk cost. Yakupov trade rumors have been non-stop for years, but expect this season to finally be the one where the former Russian prodigy moves on to hopefully greener pastures.
Tyson Barrie, Colorado Avalanche
D-needy teams across the NHL are waiting for this trade rumor to become a reality. Barrie, who has developed into an elite puck-moving defenseman with great offensive ability, has been a bargain for the Avs over the past two seasons at just $2.6MM. Now that it has become time to pay the man, he has instead been met with incessant trade chatter. There are questions as to whether coach Patrick Roy sees him as a top-pairing caliber defenseman worth the $5-$5.5MM per year that he is worth on the open market, not to mention that Colorado has only about $7MM dollars in cap space and a deal of that size would leave their cap flexibility greatly restricted. However, the Avalanche are also not very deep on defense, having already traded away solid contributor Nick Holden, and especially on the right side have no one other than Barrie and Erik Johnson who can play major NHL minutes. Of every trade rumor listed today, Colorado would likely be the most ill-advised to trade the rumored player. $5MM is the going rate for a defenseman like Barrie right now, and the Avs would be smart to just lock him up. If they instead choose to trade him, it will make another team very happy and the impact of the loss will be felt in Denver.