Arbitration Breakdown: Tomas Tatar
After not being able to reach terms on an agreement, the Red Wings and winger Tomas Tatar had their arbitration hearing today. Assuming they’re unable to reach a settlement before the arbitrator’s decision is rendered, what type of one year deal might Tatar be in for?
The Numbers
Tatar put up his third straight season with at least 20 goals and 45 points after collecting 25 goals and 21 assists in 81 games with Detroit in 2016-17. His 25 tallies marked the second highest single-season total of his career. He ranked third in team scoring in large part due to a strong finish to his year where he recorded 18 points (11-7-18) in March and April, spanning 21 contests.
The Red Wings gave Tatar a career high in ice time, as he logged 17:17 per night which was nearly three minutes a game more than 2015-16. Despite that boost in playing time, his point-per-game average was no different between the two campaigns at 0.56 which is something that the team likely brought up during the hearing.
Potential Comparables
Here are some comparable players and their contracts within the range of submissions from both sides ($4.1MM by the team, $5.3MM by Tatar).
Chris Kreider (NY Rangers) – Stylistically speaking, Kreider plays a different way than Tatar but at the time his current deal was signed (last offseason), he was coming off a similar season statistically with a point-per-game average of 0.54 while logging nearly 16 minutes a night. His cap hit checks in at $4.625MM but it’s worth noting that his deal bought out two RFA years.
Gustav Nyquist (Detroit) – Nyquist had a better platform season (54 points in 82 games) than Tatar did but their career numbers thus far are quite similar. The Wings were able to lock Nyquist up a couple of years ago for four years at an AAV of$4.75MM and the deal only contained one RFA-eligible season which is the situation Tatar is in.
Tyler Johnson (Tampa Bay) – His deal was just reached recently and could stand to impact Tatar’s contract. Johnson is coming off a couple of injury-plagued seasons (conversely, Tatar has been healthy the last three) but has either equalled or surpassed Tatar’s points-per-game averages over the past four seasons while also playing a bigger role. He checks in at $5MM and considering the impact he has, Detroit can make a compelling case that Tatar should check in at a lower cap charge, especially for just one year.
Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency.
Projection
Most of the comparable contracts check in between 6.3% and 7% of the salary cap which, in 2017-18, increases to $75MM. That provides a salary range of $4.725MM and $5.25MM. It’s hard to imagine that Tatar will get close to his one-year asking price; not many do when it comes to arbitration awards. The midpoint is $4.7MM which is close to the lower end of the range based on percentages and that’s the likelier outcome here as quite often deals will fall around the middle mark. Based on that, I’d project the award to come in at $4.75MM.
What will be interesting is if talks can rekindle on a long-term pact. Tatar has already turned down five years at $5MM which is pretty close to market value for a player who shifts between the first and second lines. If Detroit adds a little bit more to their offer, it might be enough to get something done as it’s hard to envision Tatar landing considerably more on the open market next summer unless he has a career season in 2017-18.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
48-Hour Window For Tatar Arbitration Decision Opens
Tomas Tatar‘s arbitration hearing took place this morning, at the conclusion of which the arbitrator was given 48 hours to reach a decision on his salary for next season. Tatar cannot be awarded a two-year contract through arbitration since he will reach unrestricted free agency next year, but as Craig Custance of The Athletic points out could still work out a long-term deal with the Red Wings before the decision come in. We saw a similar situation play out in 2014 with P.K. Subban, who had his hearing with the Montreal Canadiens before signing an eight-year contract a day later.
Last week it was reported the two sides were still quite a bit away in terms of an agreement, with Tatar turning down a five-year $25MM contract. While they may have worked closer to a deal, a one-year decision through arbitration would likely spell the forward’s end in Detroit. Tatar would immediately hit the trade block if he hadn’t already, with many teams likely after him as a rental piece as the season went on. If Ken Holland and the Red Wings didn’t think they could get a deal done, they would have to look long and hard at any proposals for Tatar that would improve the club long-term.
Detroit Red Wings Sign Martin Frk
The Detroit Red Wings have come to a one-year agreement with forward Martin Frk, signing the restricted free agent for the 2017-18 season. The deal is a two-way contract worth $650K in the NHL. Frk was not eligible for salary arbitration this summer.
Frk is coming off a Calder Cup victory with the Grand Rapids Griffins that saw him continue his excellent scoring performance throughout the playoffs. With a combined 65 points in 81 games, Frk was one of the most reliable options for the Griffins for most of the season. There was a period during the year when Frk was actually claimed by Carolina and suited up for two NHL games before making his way back to the Detroit organization.
Selected in the second round of the 2012 draft, Frk has come slowly through the Red Wings development system to become a genuine NHL option for next season. With back to back 27-goal seasons in the AHL, he’s shown a nose for the net and an ability to contribute on special teams. Detroit, looking for any help they can get up front could take a long look at Frk in training camp this season.
Detroit Red Wings, St. Louis Blues Exchange Arbitration Figures With RFAs
Arbitration is coming fast and furious later this week, with the hearings kicking off on Thursday with Colton Parayko and Tomas Tatar. Before that happens, teams and players need to exchange figures for the arbitrator to rule on. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet is reporting that the St. Louis Blues have submitted a two-year offer for $7MM (total), while Parayko wants a one-year deal worth $4.85MM. Friedman also reports that the Detroit Red Wings have offered Tatar $4.1MM, while the forward has asked for $5.3MM.
Unlike baseball, the arbitrator does not need to decide with one side or the other and can find a “middle-ground” salary for the player. Both of these teams would have walk-away rights from a potential decision, though it would be hard to see either of them allowing Parayko or Tatar to hit the open market. As always, a deal before the hearing is still likely between both sides as cases rarely actually reach arbitration.
Parayko, 24, is known as a budding superstar around the league but doesn’t have the experience or huge point totals to give him much leverage in the process. That said, there is leeway for an “intangibles” component which can use things like leadership and public appeal to sway the decision. Parayko is extremely popular in St. Louis as the team and fans see him as a building block for any future contender.
Tatar, 26, on the other hand has a much longer track record of success in the NHL after completing his fourth full season, but cannot be awarded a two-year deal because of his proximity to unrestricted free agent. It seems likely that the two sides will either take the one-year deal and part ways next summer, or somehow find a long-term deal that works. It was recently reported that Tatar turned down a five-year, $25MM deal and it’s clear that he values himself much higher than that.
Top Ten Remaining UFAs
Before NHL free agency opened up this summer, PHR published a list of the top-50 NHL UFAs. Two weeks into the offseason and the majority have signed deals—leaving 18 out of 50 still looking for a new NHL contract. Below are the top ten players still on the market:
[initial writeups credited to PHR’s Gavin Lee]
Tomas Tatar Rejects Five-Year, $25MM Contract Offer
According to Ansar Khan of MLive, Tomas Tatar and the Detroit Red Wings remain at an impasse in contract negotiations. The restricted free agent has turned down a five-year $25MM contract offer, instead wanting more term and an average salary closer to $6MM. Tatar’s arbitration hearing is on July 20th, an option that may have to be used should the two sides not agree in the next week. A one-year decision would send him to unrestricted free agency next season, something that would likely spark trade rumors immediately as Detroit would want something of value before he left town.
Tatar has a good case after scoring 25 goals and 46 points last season, showing he’s one of the most reliable offensive options on the Red Wings. While some question his all-around game, he is unquestionably a talented player who can drive possession and produce offensively. That kind of player, especially one that is just 26-years old is a much sought-after commodity on the open market and one that would drive a steep price should GM Ken Holland not be able to work out a long-term deal.
As Khan points out in his piece, Tyler Johnson, a player who was also scheduled to have an arbitration hearing on the 20th just agreed to a seven-year $35MM deal. While the two are comparable sizes, ages and have a similar level of experience Johnson has two major things going for him. He has already set a considerably higher peak of 72 points—Tatar’s career high is 56—and plays center full time, a more valued position. He got the term Tatar is after, but had to settle for a $5MM AAV.
Interestingly, Tatar comes with a recent resume of durability playing in 245 of a possible 246 games the last three seasons. If the team is truly interested in competing in the short term, they need Tatar on the wing providing offense, but it seems as though his biggest value may be on the market should he be given just a one year deal. Watching him walk away in a year for nothing would be foolish, but dedicating that kind of money to him when you have other salary cap issues all over the roster may be impossible. The Red Wings only have about $2.3MM in cap space before putting Johan Franzen on LTIR, and still another deal to finish with Andreas Athanasiou.
Detroit Red Wings Still Linked To Thomas Vanek
According to Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press, the Detroit Red Wings are still in contact with unrestricted free agent Thomas Vanek. Recently, Vanek came second in our poll of readers on who they considered the best free agent remaining, only coming in behind the legendary Jaromir Jagr who is getting some interesting offers of his own.
Vanek started last season with the Red Wings after being bought out by the Minnesota Wild, a move that was mostly because of the negative impact he had in his own end. Those same defensive questions remain this summer even after another season of good offensive performance. 48 points split between Detroit and the Florida Panthers—where he was dealt at the trade deadline—marked the 12th consecutive season (every single year of his career) that he’d recorded more than 40.
That type of offensive consistency isn’t easy to come by, and some team will be able to plug him into a sort of specialist role including lots of powerplay time and a regular turn in the shootout. It will be difficult for the Red Wings though, as St. James makes it clear that the team would need to move salary out before bringing in the 33-year old.
The interesting thing about Vanek is that he would once again be a trade candidate at the deadline should he sign with a bubble team, making Detroit a likely landing spot for just part of the season unless they drastically turn around their play from a year ago.
Tatar, Red Wings Still Far Apart On Contract
- There’s more interesting takes coming out of Detroit regarding Tomas Tatar. The curious case of his negotiations began with him saying if he only gets a year, he’s done in Detroit. General manager Ken Holland all but shrugged it off, which led many to wonder just how motivated the Red Wings were to getting a long term deal done. The Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James reports that the Red Wings are wary of giving Tatar a seven-year deal. This is somewhat understandable in the cap era with the exception of one point–Holland has been more than happy to offer long term deals to players who haven’t exactly produced to warrant them–with Justin Abdelkader being the best example. So with Tatar, it’s curious. The Detroit News’ Gregg Krupa goes a step further, writing that it’s essentially “cap malpractice” if Detroit isn’t paying him because they’re too bloated from other contracts. St. James adds that Tatar hasn’t produced like T.J. Oshie, or Tyler Johnson, but to be fair, Tatar hasn’t been surrounded with the talent the aforementioned have. Further, as Krupa points out, that if a deal isn’t worked out, it’s more evidence of roster mismanagement. Once the model franchise of the NHL, the Red Wings decision making continues to baffle. The team isn’t much improved from last season, they’re strapped financially, and they’re fighting with their leading scorer on a deal. It will be interesting to see how ownership reacts should the Red Wings struggle out of the gate, especially with Holland making it a priority to make the playoffs.
Red Wings Notes: Blashill, Rasmussen, Sadowy
Detroit Red Wings head coach Jeff Blashill has a message for fans regarding summer hockey: temper your excitement. Blashill tells MLive’s Brendan Savage that summer hockey “isn’t real hockey” and goes to acknowledge that while it’s exciting to see hockey in July, it isn’t what it appears. From Savage:
“I used to recruit lots (as a college coach) and we’d go to tryout camps and watch them and you always had to temper it because it’s not real hockey. Again, for me, it’s just a good first glance, gives me a little better feel come main camp for most of these guys.”
Meanwhile, ninth overall pick Michael Rasmussen sat out a scrimmage due to a wrist injury from February. Savage reports that it was precautionary, and that he hasn’t indicated any issues with the injury after two days.
- A number of Red Wings blogs are at development camp and have done detailed write ups on the prospects participating. Winging It In Motown writer SlapshotGoal featured Rasmussen, specifically writing about his skating ability that many scouts, analysts, and fans were quick to criticize. The article goes on to say that it’s “baffling” how so many critique his skating, and she goes on to write an in-depth piece (with video) that reveals a skating ability that may be very underrated. Drawing comparisons to speedsters Dylan Larkin, and Andreas Athanasiou, she writes that Rasmussen is able to make adjustments “on the fly” and noting that between his speed, effortless stride, and body control, it gives him a “fluid gracefulness.” This type of analysis should quiet some critics, and give Rasmussen the benefit of the doubt in being a top ten pick.
- With a roster that needs to younger, Detroit Free Press beat writer Helene St. James writes that prospect Dylan Sadowy has impressed Grand Rapids coach Todd Nelson, despite a season that seemed to show a step back for him as a goal scorer. Nelson cautions patience because Sadowy is so young and there is a jump from the OHL to the AHL. Sadowy was told by Detroit brass to work on his conditioning, believing it will go a long way in helping his game. Sadowy spent time with the Toledo Walleye of the ECHL in addition to the Griffins, registering 10 points (5-5) in 44 games between both squads.
Lightning Re-Sign Tyler Johnson To A 7-Year Deal
The Tampa Bay Lightning and forward Tyler Johnson have agreed to a seven-year/$35MM deal. The cap hit is $5MM. Johnson had 45 points last season, 19 of those points being goals. It’s a $1.7MM AAV increase from the $3.3MM he was previously making. Johnson saw his increase thanks to his scoring prowess and clutch playoff performance.
Johnson emerged as a scoring threat during the 2014-15 playoffs when he lit up the Detroit Red Wings for six goals in the first round while finishing with 24 points (13-11) in 26 playoff games. His Conn Smythe caliber numbers turned a number of heads and made Johnson a bonafide star in Tampa. The following season, Johnson again had a dominant performance, being a point-per-game contributor in 17 playoff games.
Regular season success was strong for the 26-year-old forward who had 50 points (24-26) in his first full season during the 2013-14 year. A season later, Johnson had his career high of 72 points (29-43) and continued his torrid performance into the playoffs. Injuries since have limited his performance, and he dipped to 38 points (14-24) in 2015-16.
With the signing, the Lightning have approximately $8.88MM remaining via CapFriendly. This allows general manager Steve Yzerman to turn his attention to Ondrej Palat, who according to the Tampa Bay Times’ Joe Smith, is hoping to lock him up prior to an arbitration hearing. Smith quoted Johnson as saying he was “super excited” about the contract extension.