After not being able to reach terms on an agreement, the Red Wings and winger Tomas Tatar had their arbitration hearing today. Assuming they’re unable to reach a settlement before the arbitrator’s decision is rendered, what type of one year deal might Tatar be in for?
The Numbers
Tatar put up his third straight season with at least 20 goals and 45 points after collecting 25 goals and 21 assists in 81 games with Detroit in 2016-17. His 25 tallies marked the second highest single-season total of his career. He ranked third in team scoring in large part due to a strong finish to his year where he recorded 18 points (11-7-18) in March and April, spanning 21 contests.
The Red Wings gave Tatar a career high in ice time, as he logged 17:17 per night which was nearly three minutes a game more than 2015-16. Despite that boost in playing time, his point-per-game average was no different between the two campaigns at 0.56 which is something that the team likely brought up during the hearing.
Potential Comparables
Here are some comparable players and their contracts within the range of submissions from both sides ($4.1MM by the team, $5.3MM by Tatar).
Chris Kreider (NY Rangers) – Stylistically speaking, Kreider plays a different way than Tatar but at the time his current deal was signed (last offseason), he was coming off a similar season statistically with a point-per-game average of 0.54 while logging nearly 16 minutes a night. His cap hit checks in at $4.625MM but it’s worth noting that his deal bought out two RFA years.
Gustav Nyquist (Detroit) – Nyquist had a better platform season (54 points in 82 games) than Tatar did but their career numbers thus far are quite similar. The Wings were able to lock Nyquist up a couple of years ago for four years at an AAV of$4.75MM and the deal only contained one RFA-eligible season which is the situation Tatar is in.
Tyler Johnson (Tampa Bay) – His deal was just reached recently and could stand to impact Tatar’s contract. Johnson is coming off a couple of injury-plagued seasons (conversely, Tatar has been healthy the last three) but has either equalled or surpassed Tatar’s points-per-game averages over the past four seasons while also playing a bigger role. He checks in at $5MM and considering the impact he has, Detroit can make a compelling case that Tatar should check in at a lower cap charge, especially for just one year.
Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency.
Projection
Most of the comparable contracts check in between 6.3% and 7% of the salary cap which, in 2017-18, increases to $75MM. That provides a salary range of $4.725MM and $5.25MM. It’s hard to imagine that Tatar will get close to his one-year asking price; not many do when it comes to arbitration awards. The midpoint is $4.7MM which is close to the lower end of the range based on percentages and that’s the likelier outcome here as quite often deals will fall around the middle mark. Based on that, I’d project the award to come in at $4.75MM.
What will be interesting is if talks can rekindle on a long-term pact. Tatar has already turned down five years at $5MM which is pretty close to market value for a player who shifts between the first and second lines. If Detroit adds a little bit more to their offer, it might be enough to get something done as it’s hard to envision Tatar landing considerably more on the open market next summer unless he has a career season in 2017-18.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.