Snapshots: Vesey Projections, David Jones, Dallas Goalies
NHL.com’s Rob Vollman looked at previous players in Jimmy Vesey‘s position and made some predictions as to how his rookie season and NHL career will play out. The results were somewhat underwhelming, and Rangers fans may want to temper their expectations. Based on the fact that Vesey played in the Eastern Collegiate Athletic Conference (ECAC) while at Harvard, rather than in a more talented conference such as Hockey East, Vollman warns that the numbers will likely not translate as well and there should be early struggles against much stronger competition. For this reason, he believes that 30 points is a reasonable estimation for Vesey in 2016-17. As for his career path, Volmann believes that Vesey has a ceiling of past ECAC scoring forwards like Harvard’s Alex Killorn and Dartmouth’s David Jones. While neither player garnered as much attention as Vesey, and both spent time in the AHL in their first pro season, as opposed to Vesey’s guaranteed NHL play time, Vollman still believes that the college numbers and playing styles make Killorn and Jones accurate comparisons. For those (Rangers fans) who disagree with those comparisons, they could be much worse. Even the most prolific ECAC scorers don’t generally end up as NHL regulars. Killorn has 138 points in 272 NHL games thus far in his four-year career, and Jones had 126 points in 272 games with the Colorado Avalanche in his first six seasons. Both had multiple seasons of around 40 points at their peak. However, Jones peak has since passed and Killorn’s is yet to be determined, but at 23 already and with a lot of tread on the tires, it doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility that Vesey could be done with his 40 point seasons and on his way down the other side of the production peak in just five or six short years.
- Speaking of David Jones… no one is really speaking of David Jones. It’s been all quiet on the free agency front for the 32-year-old winger this summer. After being linked to the New York Islanders early on in July, there has since been little news. 2015-16 was a forgettable season for the power forward, as he put up only 18 points while splitting the season between the Calgary Flames and Minnesota Wild. Vesey may project to have a similar career arc to him, but Jones is not the player he was just a few years ago. However, just one year before had scored 30 points for the Flames, and at his best with the Colorado Avalanche was a force in the crease and a consistent 20-goal scorer. Jones seems likely to be a PTO candidate or perhaps even get a late one-year deal for the upcoming season, as his size and strength still remain, but he has simply lost his scoring touch and needs to get back on track. If the NHL free agent market heats up, Jones name may resurface.
- Don’t expect any free agent fireworks from the Dallas Stars. The Stars are happy with their depth and talent at all positions, except for goalie, and NBC Sports’ Jason Brough writes that the goalie tandem is not about to change. Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi struggled last season, and never was that more apparent than in the postseason, when the duo almost single-handedly eliminated Dallas from the playoffs. At a combined cap hit of $10.4MM and a league-low .904 save percentage, many thought that something had to change for the Star’s net-minding situation this off-season. However, neither goalie was bought out or to this point traded. It looks as if the tandem will both be donning their green sweaters to start the season after all. Brough says that this close to the season, GM Jim Nill has little that he can do. There is no market for a goalie upgrade and no one is out looking to acquire either of the goalies he already has either. It appears as if Lehtonen and Niemi will be given a second chance in 2016-17, at least until they force Nill’s hand into making a move.
Central Notes: Shattenkirk, Blackhawks, Spezza
The day so far has belonged to Jimmy Vesey, as we wait for his final decision on where to start his NHL career. The Blackhawks and Rangers are said to be the front-runners, and some reporters are getting a little anxious about the timing. It’s unlikely that, despite tons of tweets today, anyone leaving their phone or computer will hurry Vesey’s signing. With that in mind, take some time to find out what’s being talked about in the Central Division, besides Chicago’s free agent pursuit.
- James O’Brien at ProHockeyTalk writes about Kevin Shattenkirk today. O’Brien believes that trading Shattenkirk would be a mistake for the Blues, and that the team would be better off trying to re-sign him. His analytically based argument suggests that Shattenkirk should really be one of the untouchables on the Blues, and certainly prioritized over the older Alex Steen. The article is interesting, though may ignore what we don’t know for sure. This assumes Shattenkirk is willing to re-sign in St. Louis, and there have been reports to the contrary.
- Scott Powers over at The Athletic has a rundown of the Chicago Blackhawks defensive depth. You can never have too many defensemen, and Chicago’s group is certainly impressive. Earlier, he discussed the players who are more certain to get regular playing time. A team will always feel comfortable being led by Duncan Keith, and they’ve done well enough with their current group to win three Stanley Cups this decade. Adding Brian Campbell to go along with their NHL and minor league defensive depth should go a long way.
- Mike Heika has a profile of Stars forward Jason Spezza, and expects big things from him this year. Spezza may be getting older, but many don’t appreciate just how great he’s been. He’s currently ninth among active players in points per game. He’s also older than several of the players immediately ahead of him, giving him more decline years to weigh down his averages. Heika notes that Spezza’s game being based on hockey IQ may extend his usefulness. Players do decline, and Spezza has to some extent, but he’s a future Hall of Famer, and they don’t fall off the map as fast as other players.
West Notes: Rakell, Rattie, Gaudreau
With the World Cup of Hockey fast approaching, another unsigned restricted free agent is headed to Toronto. According to Stephen Whyno of the Associated Press (who we interviewed just yesterday on PHR) Rickard Rakell will join the Swedish club replacing the injured Alexander Steen. Steen had surgery in June on his shoulder, and is still trying to be ready for the opening of the regular season.
Rakell will be rewarded for last season’s breakout that saw him score 20 goals and 43 points in his second full season. Rakell remains one of the Ducks priorities this summer, along with fellow unsigned RFA Hampus Lindholm. The team, with only $6.6MM in cap space at the moment, may not have enough to sign both to long-term deals and may have to settle for the player-friendly bridge deal.
- Among the news at Pro Hockey Talk’s St. Louis Blues day is that Ty Rattie will be given a real chance to stick with the big club this season. Adam Gretz writes that with the team losing veteran forwards like David Backes, Steve Ott and Troy Brouwer to free agency, there is plenty of opportunities for young players like Rattie. This is in line with a similar article on NHL.com today, that quoted GM Doug Armstrong: “I think the game is getting faster, and youth is being served. I think we were going to transfer to this (youth movement) regardless.” Rattie has suited up for just 26 NHL games, but has proven his scoring ability at the AHL level with three straight 40+ point seasons.
- After signing Sean Monahan earlier today to a seven-year deal, the Calgary Flames will now turn their attention to Johnny Gaudreau. Craig Custance of ESPN thinks that his deal will come in very close to Monahan’s, as the team views the situation as similar to Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane in Chicago. The Blackhawk stars signed identical $84MM deals in July of 2014, despite Kane having more career points (493 vs. 440). Monahan also has a full season more of NHL duty under his belt than Gaudreau, despite being more than a year younger than him. If the Flames can get both on long-term deals under $7MM, they’ll be set up nicely for the future with two underpaid superstars.
Dallas Stars Notes: Niemi, Lehtonen, Nichushkin
The Dallas Stars surprised many by taking the Central Division crown and finishing with the most points in the Western Conference in 2016-17, just one season removed from missing the postseason entirely. Their success was driven primarily by the most prolific offense in the league as Jamie Benn (41), Tyler Seguin (33) and Jason Spezza (33) led the way with hugely productive seasons. However, while the team had no problem putting the puck in the opposition’s net, they did have plenty of issues keeping it out of their own. Along those lines, Jason Brough of Pro Hockey Talk writes that the club’s “biggest question mark” entering the new season remains between the pipes in Big D.
Antti Niemi and Kari Lehtonen combined to stop just 90.6% of the shots they faced during the regular season a year ago. Lehtonen (90.6%) ranked 38th and Niemi (90.5%) 40th overall among qualified net minders in that category. They were even worse come playoff time with neither goalie able to stop 90% of the shots against.
The Stars were thought to be considering the possibility of acquiring another goalie, with Ben Bishop named as one possibility but it’s not clear whether any substantive talks with the Lightning or any other club ever took place. Nevertheless, Jim Nill seems confident his goaltending tandem will rebound enough to give the club at least capable play between the pipes. Each has had success in the recent past and it wasn’t that long ago that Niemi backstopped the Chicago Blackhawks to a Stanley Cup so there is some reason for Nill’s optimism.
For more on the Stars…..
- In a separate piece for Pro Hockey Talk, Brough identifies Stars winger Valeri Nichushkin as being “under pressure.” Despite playing on the most prolific offensive team in the league, the 21-year-old Nichushkin struggled, netting just nine goals in 79 regular season contests. He followed that up with a lone point, an assist, in 10 playoff games. Nichushkin, the 10th overall selection in the 2013 entry draft, has a ton of ability and as veteran scorers Patrick Sharp and Ales Hemsky each enter the final years of their respective contracts, the club may well need the young Russian to step into one of those spots sooner rather than later.
- Revisiting the goaltending situation in Dallas, Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News addressed a reader’s question on the subject as part of a recent chat. Specifically, Heika was asked how much salary the Stars would need to retain in order to facilitate a trade of one of Niemi or Lehtonen. Heika speculated that any team that would look to acquire either goalie would want Dallas to keep 50% of the player’s salary on their books. On the other hand, Heika says that GM Jim Nill doesn’t seem too keen on the idea and would rather hang on to the duo in the hope that one or both can rebuild value with solid 2016-17 performances. At this point it seems most likely that the Stars will at least open the season with Niemi and Lehtonen manning the net. But should they again scuffle and with plenty of teams perhaps willing to move a goalie prior to the 2017 expansion draft, Dallas could look to upgrade the position ahead of the trade deadline.
Snapshots: Roy, Vesey, Oilers
When Patrick Roy suddenly resigned as head coach of the Colorado Avalanche last week the hockey world, along with GM Joe Sakic, was stunned to say the least. While Sakic said all the right things, and refused to throw his former teammate under the bus, Terry Frei from the Denver Post writes that it was how their relationship had developed that caused Roy to exit so abruptly.
In the piece, Frei writes that though Roy had a big impact on personnel and development decisions in his first three years, as someone holding a vice-president of hockey operations should, he’d been slowly edged out as Sakic gained more confidence and experience on the job. To quote Frei: “Did he quit on the Avs? Sure, he did. As coach. Because he thought he had been fired as a VP.”
The Avalanche are still looking for someone to fill the head coaching role, and as Frei reports, Sakic has indicated that none of the current assistant coaches are being considered. We profiled five candidates here who may find their phones ringing at some point, though many are already under contract with another team, if in a lesser role.
- The Jimmy Vesey sweepstakes continued today, with the final team meetings taking place. Multiple reports have current players attending the meetings in order to sway his decision, with John Tavares being one of the biggest names confirmed (via James Mirtle). Though the Islanders may still be seen as outsiders, a promised role next to Tavares is definitely something any player would have to consider, and with P.A. Parenteau currently penciled in, it wouldn’t take much to offer it. Other teams are obviously offering similar things, with Jonathan Toews (link) and Auston Matthews (link) both in Boston to meet the Harvard grad.
- In his latest column, David Staples of the Edmonton Journal posits that the Oilers will never be successful while they keep trotting out a few weak-links, despite the obvious top-end talent on the roster. In analyzing the roster, Staples references Chris Anderson and David Salley’s book “The Numbers Game: Why Everything You Know About Soccer Is Wrong“, and applies their “O-ring player” idea to some recent Oilers like Anton Lander, Mark Fayne and Mark Letestu. While a team can’t have NHL stars in every roster spot, it’s these weak-links that are holding the team back from ever capitalizing on their young stars’ success.
Off-Season To Date: Central Division
The NHL has entered its seasonal lull where teams are done signing free agents and will wait until training camp to make roster moves. Each team’s additions and subtractions will most likely remain static until the season starts, so compiling moves runs little risk of changing in the coming days. We have already documented the off-season moves of teams in the Atlantic Division and Metropolitan Division, and now we take a quick look cross-conference at the Central Division.
Chicago Blackhawks
Key Additions: Jordin Tootoo, Brian Campbell
Key Departures: Andrew Ladd, Teuvo Teravainen, Bryan Bickell, Dale Weise, Tomas Fleischmann, Christian Ehrhoff, David Rundblad, Andrew Shaw
Unsigned RFAs: None
Cap Space: $2,490,705
Projected Roster Size: 22
Notes: Another year, another cap-constrained selloff for the Chicago Blackhawks. This summer they managed to find a taker for Bryan Bickell, but it cost them young prospect Teuvo Teravainen. They also signed Brian Campbell to a one-year deal worth $1.5MM—a steal assuming Campbell doesn’t significantly decline this season. The ‘hawks are particularly tight on cap space this year because Artemi Panarin achieved most of his bonuses last year, and the resulting cap hit gets applied to the upcoming season
Colorado Avalanche
Key Additions: Joe Colborne, Fedor Tyutin, Patrick Wiercioch
Key Departures: Mikkel Boedker, Shawn Matthias, Nate Guenin, Nick Holden, Reto Berra
Unsigned RFAs: None
Cap Space: $1,534,405
Projected Roster Size: 22
Notes: The Avalanche have had a tumultuous offseason. They waged a prolonged standoff with RFA Tyson Barrie before re-signing him to a four-year, $22MM deal, but then lost head coach Patrick Roy as he stepped down due to not having enough control. The Avs did not address their suboptimal possession metrics, nor did they boost their roster traditionally to compete in the historically tough Central Division.
Dallas Stars
Key Additions: Dan Hamhuis
Key Departures: Vernon Fiddler, Alex Goligoski, Kris Russell, Jason Demers, Colton Sceviour
Unsigned RFAs: Valeri Nichushkin
Cap Space: $7,984, 167
Projected Roster Size: 21
Notes: The Stars parted with significant defensive pieces and failed to upgrade its goaltending, but they still remain poised to challenge for first in the Central. They did sign Captain Jamie Benn to an eight-year, $76MM extension, a steep price but one most pundits found reasonable. The Stars still have ample cap room to sign another defenseman—even more if they decide to trade either goalie for a cheaper backup option.
Minnesota Wild
Key Additions: Eric Staal, Chris Stewart
Key Departures: Thomas Vanek, David Jones
Unsigned RFAs: None
Cap Space: $2,168,909
Projected Roster Size: 21
Notes: Minnesota remained relatively static this offseason, letting Vanek walk but signing Eric Staal to a three-year, $10.5MM contract. The Wild are hoping that having Zach Parise healthy for the playoffs this year will be enough to challenge for the Central Division crown.
Nashville Predators
Key Additions: P.K. Subban, Yannick Weber
Key Departures: Shea Weber, Jimmy Vesey, Carter Hutton, Cody Hodgson, Paul Gaustad, Barret Jackman, Eric Nystrom
Unsigned RFAs: Stefan Elliot
Cap Space: $5,414,166
Projected Roster Size: 23
Notes: The Predators rocked the boat this offseason by shipping Weber off to Montreal for fellow Canadian defenseman P.K. Subban. With the move, the Preds hope to have a stalwart offensive-minded defensemen for the foreseeable future, but give up elite rock solid dependency in return. Overall the move should boost Nashville’s offense and help them take the next step in the Central.
St. Louis Blues
Key Additions: David Perron, Landon Ferraro, Carter Hutton
Key Departures: Brian Elliot, David Backes, Troy Brouwer, Steve Ott, Anders Nilsson
Unsigned RFAs: None
Cap Space: $3,957,083
Projected Roster Size: 22
Notes: The Blues lost talent this offseason after Troy Brouwer and captain David Backes signed elsewhere in free agency. They also traded away goaltender Brian Elliot for draft picks, placing their trust in young Jake Allen. With the Blues’ young guns stepping up last year, the organization must have felt that they could afford to let Backes and Brouwer go. Finally, it was rumored this summer that the Blues would trade Kevin Shattenkirk—in the final contract year—but nothing has materialized to date.
Winnipeg Jets
Key Additions: Shawn Matthias
Key Departures: Grant Clitsome
Unsigned RFAs: Jacob Trouba, J.C. Lipon
Cap Space: $10,018,333
Projected Roster Size: 23
Notes: Winnipeg stayed relatively pat this summer, signing only Matthias to beef up the team’s bottom six. The focus is on what they haven’t done—namely, sign RFA Jacob Trouba to a new deal. Trouba will anchor Team North America’s defense this summer at the World Cup of Hockey, and a good performance could loosen Winnipeg’s pocketbook.
Snapshots: Saunders, Schedule, Spaling
The hockey world mourns today as it was reported earlier that broadcasting titan John Saunders passed away at the age of 61. Saunders had worked for ESPN for nearly 30 years, and was one the biggest influences on hockey broadcasting in the United States. An all-star defenseman growing up in Montreal, Saunders went on to play at Western Michigan University from 1974-76. Saunders was a founding board member of the Jimmy V Foundation, a charity that has raised over $90MM for cancer research.
Many fans in the United States and across the world would not have understood, or appreciated hockey without John Saunders, and here at PHR we would like to extend our deepest condolences to his family.
- The NHL released its preseason schedule today, and among the notable games are two that will be held at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, the home of the upcoming expansion franchise. The Los Angeles Kings will play back-to-back nights against the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche on October 7-8th to give the fans there a taste of what is to come. Also opening its doors for the first time will be the Edmonton Oilers’ new home, as the team will play the Calgary Flames at Rogers Place on September 26th.
- Nick Spaling‘s deal with Geneve-Servette was announced today, making him the latest in the line of players heading to Switzerland. The deal is different than any given in the NHL, reports Stephen Whyno as the two sides have agreed to a one-year pact with an option for 2017-18, much like an MLB deal. This adds a new wrinkle to players looking for contracts outside the NHL, as European leagues are getting more creative in their contract structure. Spaling will be reunited with former line-mate and veteran NHLer Mike Santorelli, who signed a deal last month with the club.
Roster Crunch: Central Division
Previously, we looked at some of the battles for the last few spots among Pacific Division teams, happening to focus mostly on the third pairing on many teams. With the Anaheim Ducks leading the way with their glut of young defenders, we’ll head to the Central Division next where there are a few teams who might be contenders to scoop up one of extra Ducks pieces.
Dallas Stars – It’s not often you see a team lose three of it’s top-four defenders in one offseason, but that’s what happened to the Stars this summer after Alex Goligoski, Jason Demers and Kris Russell all became unrestricted free agents. While Russell has yet to sign, he was probably miscast as the 24-minute-a-night player the Stars used him as down the stretch. They brought in Dan Hamhuis to fill one of the spots, but it’ll be a battle between Jamie Oleksiak, Stephen Johns, Patrik Nemeth, Jordie Benn and Esa Lindell for playing time this year. Because Johns is the only right-handed member of that group, perhaps Julius Honka, a former first-round pick, will make his NHL debut this season as well.
Stars Notes: Oleksiak, Seguin, Nichushkin
Athletic ability really is a family matter. Stars’ defenseman Jamie Oleksiak may be the highest paid member of his family after he inked a new deal that will pay him almost $1MM next season, but he’ll have to take a supporting role in the family newsletter this month. Oleksiak’s 16-year old sister Penny won two Olympic medals over the weekend, capturing silver in the 100m butterfly and anchoring a team that was awarded bronze for their time in the 4x100m freestyle.
When Jamie was asked about his state of mind while watching Penny swim for their native Canada, sibling rivalry didn’t come into the equation: “It’s just surreal. I feel like the biggest super fan right now watching her and I’m screaming and losing my voice. She’s done such a great job and we’re all so proud of her. We’re all so proud to watch her represent Canada.”
Oleksiak will try to get his hockey career back on track this season after playing in only 19 games last year. His waiver eligibility and the acquisition of Kris Russell mid-season played the biggest parts in his time in the press box, and the former first-round pick will have to prove he’s deserved of more playing time in 2016-17.
- In a Q&A with media on Saturday afternoon, Tyler Seguin (via The Dallas News) answered questions about his injured Achilles tendon, but also shared some feelings on the Stars’ chances this season. “Our window really just opened and I think every team’s got kind of that window that opens where you can win a championship, and I think our time definitely has now, so that part’s exciting. Getting a veteran guy like Hamhuis, it makes you even more excited for the season to start here.” Seguin is referring to Dan Hamhuis, who signed a two-year, $7.5MM deal on July 1st.
- While the team quickly came to an agreement with Oleksiak for next season, Valeri Nichushkin remains unsigned. It was almost a month ago that GM Jim Nill reported that Nichushkin was training in North America and isn’t considering an exit to the KHL, but there has been no other news on the contract negotiations. Nichushkin is coming off a promising season that saw him contribute 29 points in limited minutes. Still just 21, the former 10th-overall pick will have to show some more goal scoring ability if he’s to cement his spot next to Jason Spezza on the second line.
Snapshots: Blues, Hall, Seguin
The St. Louis Blues will have a vastly different look this season after a summer of big changes. In an online chat on the St. Louis Post-Dispatch website, Jeremy Rutherford chatted about some of the differences Blues fans can expect this coming season.
Regarding the Brian Elliott trade, Rutherford believed Blues GM Doug Armstrong made the trade to avoid losing him for nothing next summer when Elliott is a UFA. While the trade could go wrong if Jake Allen struggles or gets hurt, the trade makes sense, asset-management wise.
Former captain David Backes left town for a bigger contract in Boston; while Backes claimed Bruins forwards Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand convinced him to sign in Boston, Rutherford shut down that idea saying players will sign wherever is best for them and that if the Blues had offered Backes a fifth year, then it wouldn’t have mattered what Bergeron and Marchand said. As far as replacing Backes as captain, Rutherford felt it was safe to assume one of the remaining assistant captains (Alex Pietrangelo and Alex Steen) would be the new captain. The new assistant would likely be one of Paul Stastny, Jaden Schwartz, and Vladimir Tarasenko – who Rutherford believed was “pretty disappointed to not get an A last year”.
Here are some other notes from around the hockey world:
- It’s New Jersey Devils day on Pro Hockey Talk, and they have named Taylor Hall as their player under pressure this season. Adam Gretz justified the choice by saying while he knows Hall will produce, he’ll be under scrutiny because of the perception that he’s at fault for the Oilers misfortunes over the last six years and the high price that the Devils parted with to acquire him. Oscar Klefbom‘s comments about Hall and Ben Scrivens subsequent agreement will also be weighing on Hall as he looks to prove his former team and teammates wrong.
- Speaking of top picks from the 2010 NHL Draft that Peter Chiarelli has traded, Dallas Stars center Tyler Seguin says he’s ready to go for the upcoming World Cup in September. Seguin missed all but one of the Stars playoff games with Achilles and calf injuries. Seguin told Steve Hunt of NHL.com it’s been “a bit of a different summer as far as training-wise just coming off an injury, but feeling great and looking forward to the World Cup”.