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Capitals Have Not Made Contract Offer To Barry Trotz

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The Washington Capitals, defending Stanley Cup champions, would like to bring back the man who led them to the promised land, head coach Barry Trotz. Trotz was in the final year of his contract and will be a free agent along with the players when the new league year begins. It is common sense for Washington to want him back, but has nonetheless been reported by several sources as well. Yet, the Caps have a funny way of showing their loyalty to Trotz; Sportsnet’s John Shannon reports that the team has yet to extend a contract offer to their coach.

Trotz, 55, has long been expected to be a free agent this summer. Despite a immensely successful career by a wins standard, Trotz had often been criticized for not being able to get the job done in the postseason. That excuse is out the door now, after the Capitals secured their first Cup title in franchise history last week. As a result, rumors of Trotz’ free agency were also supposed to be thrown away. It seemed like a sure thing that GM Brian MacLellan and the Caps would want to retain his services. However, an offer has yet to be made and Shannon adds that the two sides do not have any meetings schedule to negotiate an extension.

This could simply be the pre-occupied champions dragging their feet or focusing all of their attention to catching up on draft and free agency preparations. Of course, it could be something else entirely. It’s possible that Trotz, now a championship coach, is intrigued with the possibility of other positions. Lou Lamoriello and the New York Islanders are known to be eyeing Trotz for their current vacancy, while it has also been rumored that at least one team with a head coach has considered hiring Trotz regardless if he was to become available. Trotz has reportedly had some preliminary contract talks with the Capitals already and it could be that the recent title and his improved free agent status has raised the price tag beyond what Washington is comfortable paying. This very real possibility is only supported further by the idea that the team had been grooming assistant Todd Reirden to take over. Anticipating the expiration of Trotz’ contract and, after years of letdowns, not expecting their miraculous Stanley Cup run, the Capitals were reportedly comfortable with handing the job off to Reirden. Of course, the situation has changed greatly, but if the price is too high to retain Trotz, Washington would not panic, but could simply stick with their original plan.

The odds still favor an extension for Trotz. He is fresh off of a title with the Capitals, knows and trusts his players and staff, and understands that his best chance at another Cup is likely to stay in Washington. However, Shannon’s report that – with days remaining on his contract – Trotz does not have an extension offer nor any scheduled meetings to discuss a new deal, raises questions. The lure of more money and a new challenge could be enticing Trotz and his asking price could be scaring off the Capitals. Only time will tell, but suddenly the idea of one of the winningest coaches in NHL history hitting the free agent market is back in the realm of possibility.

Bruins Re-Sign Matt Grzelcyk To Two-Year Deal

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The Boston Bruins have locked up one of their many impressive young players, announcing an extension for defenseman Matt Grzelcyk. The deal carries a $1.4MM AAV and will keep the Boston native with his hometown team for at least two more years.

While Grzelcyk may not be one of the most talked-about young players in the league or even in Boston, the small but capable blue liner was a pleasant surprise as a rookie in 2017-18. A 2012 third-round pick and a former pair-mate of fellow Bruin Charlie McAvoy’s at Boston University, the Bruins always had high expectations of Grzelcyk. However, few could have expected that his performance would thrust him into a starting role and leave veterans like Adam McQuaid and Paul Postma as afterthoughts for much of the season. Grzlecyk skated in 61 games for the Bruins, contributing 15 points along the way. He also posted a +21 rating, tied for third-best on the team with two-way star Patrice Bergeron. In the postseason, Grzelcyk played in all but one of Boston’s games as well and didn’t look out of place.

Perhaps the greatest attribute that Grzelcyk showed as a rookie – and one that caught the eye of those in tune with advanced analytics – was his possession ability. Grzelcyk finished the year with a top 25 Corsi For rating (among players with at least 300 minutes of ice time) of 55.67%, which was third best among rookies behind only McAvoy and Columbus’ Pierre-Luc Dubois. Grzelcyk even held the best relative shot differential among all defenseman in the NHL for a significant span of time mid-season. While not an overly physical player nor a player with huge offensive upside, Grzelcyk showed himself to be a safe puck-handler and a player that can be relied on to create offense and suppress the opposing offense.

Moving forward, Grzelcyk’s role may change. The Bruins continue to show a desire to add a top-four left-handed defenseman, likely to pair long-term with McAvoy at the top of the depth chart. This would likely shift Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug down, as McAvoy, Brandon Carlo, and Kevan Miller form a solid grouping on the right side. The result could be Grzelcyk becoming an extra man rather than a starter for the next year or two. Grzelcyk’s skill set and ceiling could make him an ideal seventh defender in his career, if that is the role he is asked to play. However, the value of this contract and the speed with which both sides agreed upon the terms indicates that the Bruins have plans for Grzelcyk, likely short-term or long-term. The young defenseman is just getting started with his NHL career and will get plenty more chances to show himself in Boston.

Western Notes: Flames, Bolland, Grant

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Don’t expect the Calgary Flames to make a selection in the first round of the NHL Entry Draft next Friday and probably don’t expect to see them make a pick too early on Saturday either. The Flames currently sit with just three picks in the 2018 Draft: a fourth-rounder, sixth-rounder, and seventh-rounder. The rest of their selections were used in deals to acquire Travis Hamonic, Mike Smith, and Michael Stone. Speaking with Calgary GM Brad Treliving, beat reporter Kristen Anderson makes it sound as if the team’s philosophy toward the value of draft picks versus prospects will very likely keep them from adding any significant picks this year. Treliving admitted that he has looked at scenarios that would allow his team to trade back in to the first round and has tried to make a deal with other teams, but doesn’t know if they’ll ever reach a point where a trade will actually happen. In fact, he called that possibility very unlikely. Understandably, Treliving is hesitant to trade away young players or promising prospects for picks that will be farther behind in their NHL development and who they only hope will one day reach or exceed the level of the player they move in return, calling it “backwards shuffling”. Treliving also lacks some firepower in terms of future picks with his 2019 second-, sixth-, and seventh-round selections already lost as well. Right now, the asking price for early picks is too high for the Flames to bite on anything just yet. However, don’t underestimate what the anxiety of waiting through three rounds could force them to do next weekend.

  • AZSports’ Craig Morgan recently spoke with Anton Thun, the agent for Dave Bolland, about the veteran Arizona Coyotes center’s future. Bolland, 32, has yet to play a game for the Coyotes despite being traded to the team in the off-season prior to the 2016-17 season. A lingering back injury and lower-body concerns forced the Florida Panthers to dump Bolland’s contract in Arizona – a move that also cost them prospect Lawson Crouse – and he has not been cleared to suit up at any time since. Thun reports that Bolland is doing better, but there is still no expectation that he will be able to play next season. Instead, Thun suggests to Morgan that Bolland is likely to be placed on long-term injured reserve yet again in the final year of his contract and will then formally announce his retirement after next season. If this proves true, it will be a disappointing end to the career of a well-respected player who built a career on his reliable defensive play.
  • One of the more talented offensive defensemen in the AHL is off to Finland for the next stage of his pro career. Alex Grant, 29, has signed with Jokerit of the KHL, the team reported today. The journeyman defender has made a career of being one of the top scoring blue liners in the minor leagues, jumping from one two-way contract to the next throughout the past nine years. However, in that time he has only been given seven NHL appearances and appears to have decided to make a name for himself at the highest level in Europe rather than continue to play in the AHL. After an impressive 49-point campaign with the Providence Bruins in 2016-17, Grant signed with the Minnesota Wild last summer and was expected to be one of their top depth options on the back end. Instead, he again was not given that chance and will now seize an opportunity with Jokerit. Offensive-minded defensemen who have struggled to find their place in the NHL have often found great success in the KHL. Grant could very well be the next in that line, which has featured the likes of Matt Gilroy, Philip Larsen, and Jakub Nakladal in recent years.

Toronto Marlies Win 2018 Calder Cup

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And just like that, hockey season is officially over. The Toronto Marlies, AHL affiliate of the Toronto Maple Leafs, finished off the last of the major North American hockey leagues with a Game Seven win over the Texas Stars, AHL affiliate of the Dallas Stars, to win the Calder Cup. The Marlies controlled the game and held a 3-0 lead late into the third before a flurry of action produced a 6-1 final.

This is the first Toronto hockey championship since 1967 and could be a positive sign of things to come for the Maple Leafs. It also marks a strong start to Kyle Dubas’ tenure as GM in Toronto, as the young executive has long had oversight over the Marlies.

Leading the top performers for Toronto was Playoff MVP Andreas Johnsson, who posted 24 points in 16 games and showed no fatigue after skating with the Maple Leafs in Round One. Goaltender Garret Sparks was also electric all spring, including several clutch saves in the deciding Game Seven. Not to be forgotten is captain Ben Smith, who now adds a Calder Cup title to his Stanley Cup win with the Chicago Blackhawks and NCAA Championship with Boston College.

A big win for the city of Toronto will surely be met with much excitement and the Marlies deserve every bit of the spotlight. However, the expectations are now higher than ever for the Maple Leafs to follow suit with a Stanley Cup in the coming years.

Coyotes And Sharks Strike Minor Trade

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Arizona Coyotes GM John Chayka is feeling lucky today. The Coyotes have announced their second trade of the evening, acquiring forward Adam Helewka from the division rival San Jose Sharks. In return, the Sharks land defenseman Kyle Wood from the ’Yotes. Arizona announced the deal with a team release.

While this is a minor trade, it is not inconsequential. Helewka, 22, was a fourth-round pick of the Sharks in 2015. Like Hudson Fasching, who the Coyotes acquired from the Buffalo Sabres earlier in the day, Helewka’s offensive totals as a younger player exceed what he has been able to produce so far as a pro. However, he too seems to be trending in the right direction with an AHL career-high 38 points this year and a strong albeit brief playoff showing. In one day, Chayka has added a lot of offensive upside to the Tuscon Roadrunners and may find that both of his acquisitions could be good depth pieces up front for the Coyotes.

As for the Sharks, they add impressive potential of their own in Wood. The 22-year-old blue liner was one of the top scoring defensemen and an All-Star in the AHL in 2016-17 with 43 points in 68 games. He was pegged as one of the favorites to fill the roster spot of Jakob Chychrun early this season while he was sidelined, but Wood too ran into injury issues which lost him an NHL chance and also cost him some games and production in the AHL. However, at full health he is a dangerous minor league asset. Although the Sharks are set for their seven starting defensemen going into next season, Wood is yet another strong young option for the San Jose Barracuda and it would be no surprise see him make his NHL debut next year. Wood is an impending restricted free agent though, and the Sharks GM Doug Wilson will first have to sign the young rearguard to a new deal.

Snapshots: Islanders, Gudlevskis, Lucic, Canadiens

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The New York Islanders have made a coaching move, but not the anticipated one. Still lacking a head coach for his team, Lou Lamoriello has nevertheless made another change to the coaching staff, firing assistant Greg Cronin. The Athletic’s Arthur Staple confirmed the move, but added that no other coaching decisions have been made yet at the NHL or AHL level. Staple also had nothing to say about any of the motivations behind Cronin’s departure. Ironically, if Lamoriello was to tab Boston Bruins’ assistant Jay Pandolfo as his head coach, the Boston native Cronin would be an easy fix to replace him.

  • The Islanders have struggled in net for too long and need to make a change at goalie. That all but rules out recycling any of their unrestricted free agent goaltenders. Jaroslav Halak, Christopher Gibson, and Kristers Gudlevskis are all set to hit the open market and of the three, Gudlevskis faces the lowest chances of finding employment again in the NHL. Once a highly-regarded prospect for the Tampa Bay Lightning, Gudlevskis play in the AHL simply never reached an elite level that would have warranted an extended look at the highest level. This past season, he performed poorly and was handily outplayed by Gibson. As such, he may not have many opportunities in North America next season. It is no surprise then that Latvian news outlet OlyBet reports that Gudlevksis has had preliminary talks with Dinamo Riga, the KHL team in his native country. Gudlevskis was brought up in the Riga junior ranks and even appeared in two games with the big league team before coming overseas. Gudlevskis has never returned to Europe since and his preference would likely be to stay in the NHL, but it would be a natural fit with Dinamo if the offers don’t come from NHL teams this summer.
  • In today’s edition of TSN’s “Insider Trading”, Pierre LeBrun and Darren Dreger have set the record straight about the trade market for Edmonton Oilers forward Milan Lucic. It was previously believed that the Oilers were shopping Lucic in hopes of ridding themselves of his contract, but in speaking with several team executives, LeBrun and Dreger feel that is not the case. Instead, they have heard that Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli is seeking hockey trades rather than cap dump trades for Lucic. This would indicate that it is Lucic who has requested the trade and Edmonton is simply trying to oblige him.
  • One team rumored to be in on Lucic is actually out, according to LeBrun. The Montreal Canadiens, who pursued the power forward and former Bruins enforcer vigorously when he initially hit free agency, were speculated to again be interested in acquiring Lucic. The Habs could use some size up front and Lucic shared a strong rapport with coach Claude Julien when the pair were in Boston. However, LeBrun states that they are definitively “out” on Lucic.

Bruins To Meet With Ilya Kovalchuk

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The Boston Bruins have already been linked to Russian free agent and former NHL superstar Ilya Kovalchuk this off-season, but GM Don Sweeney confirmed the interest today, telling NHL.com’s Amalie Benjamin that he will speak with Kovalchuk and his camp in the coming days. The Bruins are seeking to add a veteran scoring winger to their top six for next season and, if they don’t resign trade deadline acquisition Rick Nash, Kovalchuk could be a suitable replacement. Kovalchuk has already met with the Los Angeles Kings and San Jose Sharks, while the Detroit Red Wings, New York Rangers, and Dallas Stars are among others who would like to outbid the Bruins for the big-name import.

Kovalchuk, 35, has been one of if not the best player in the KHL since he bolted from the New Jersey Devils in 2013. Sweeney still believes that the veteran sniper has the ability to left to translate those numbers back to the NHL. A big, strong shooter, Kovalchuk would not only add more talent and some balance to the Bruins roster, but would also be a great stylistic role model for a player like Jake DeBrusk, who he would likely skate beside with center David Krejci. However, the Bruins also liked the chemistry that those two players shared with Nash prior to his concussion late in the regular season. Sweeney stated that they remain in communication with Nash and that financially a deal with one of Nash or Kovalchuk would all but rule out the signing of the other.

If the decision were left up to Ty Anderson of The Sports Hub, he would gladly take Kovalchuk. The Bruins beat writer believes that the Russian goal scorer is the exact kind of gamble that Boston should take this summer to add a difference-maker that can balance their top six. Anderson notes that the Kovalchuk played right wing alongside Zach Parise in New Jersey and found great success and could do the same in Boston. His scoring touch could be what it takes to bring together a Bruins’ second line that paled in comparison to the league’s best line – Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, and David Pastrnak– last year.

Both Sweeney and Anderson note that the financial flexibility may be needed to sign Kovalchuk – or Nash – to his desired contract. TSN’s Darren Dreger and Pierre LeBrun said the same on “Insider Trading”  today, adding that the Bruins would like to move David Backes this summer and may even consider trading Krejci in the right move to free up space. The duo also bring up an interesting twist that the Kovalchuk sweepstakes is having on the trade market. They feel that the suitors for Carolina Hurricanes winger Jeff Skinner are largely the same as those talking to Kovalchuk. They name the Bruins, alongside the Kings and Sharks, as the teams that could look at Skinner if they were to miss out on Kovalchuk. Nash, Kovalchuk, Skinner, and the off-season is just getting started in Boston. A big move could be on the horizon for the Bruins.

Coyotes, Sabres Swap Brandon Hickey For Hudson Fasching

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It looks like another team will take a shot at signing prospect Brandon Hickey. The collegiate defenseman has been dealt for the second off-season in a row, this time from the Arizona Coyotes to the Buffalo Sabres in exchange for minor league winger Hudson Fasching. Veteran forward and impending unrestricted free agent Mike Sislo will also head to Buffalo in the deal. Both teams have confirmed the trade and seem optimistic about re-signing their new prospects.

Hickey was originally acquired by the Coyotes last summer from the Calgary Flames as part of the Mike Smith trade. The Flames worried that they would not be able to sign the Alberta native, who they had drafted in the third round in 2014 but at the time had already played three seasons in the NCAA and was not yet looking to leave. A year later, the Boston University captain has graduated and apparently was not keen on signing in Arizona either/ He only has to wait until August to become a free agent, but the Sabres clearly hope to get him signed instead. A smart defensive blue liner with leadership qualities, Hickey would add experience and locker room presence to any pipeline and Buffalo could certainly use the blue line boost.

It’s likely that Buffalo was already given permission to have such contract talks with Hickey before this deal was made, otherwise it’s highly unlikely that they would have traded away a player like Fasching. Granted Fasching is an impending restricted free agent and, like Hickey, needs a new contract, the Sabres would have had more team control over Fasching than they do now with Hickey. Fasching also has pro experience, including 22 NHL games with the Sabres over the past three seasons. The 22-year-old American forward has not found the same offensive production in the pros that he exhibited with the University of Minnesota, but appeared to be back on track this season with a career-high 30 points in the AHL. Fasching brings a physical element that the Coyotes have often lacked and could be one of the top minor league options for the team moving forward.

As for Sislo, the 30-year-old forward put up good numbers in the AHL, but isn’t much of a threat to make a difference at the next level, whether he signs with the Sabres or another team. He may simply be a throw-in in this deal, given his impending free agency. This deal is primarily about two prospects getting a new opportunity to sign with a different team and filling specific, minor needs for each organization. It also continues a trend for each franchise: the BU-to-Buffalo pipeline for the Sabres and the Coyotes taking on high upside prospects that many others have written off.

Free Agent Focus: Philadelphia Flyers

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Free agency opens less than three weeks from today and teams are well on their way to evaluating both their own impending free agents and those likely to reach the open market. There are quite a few prominent players expected to be available as unrestricted free agents, while many key restricted free agents will be looking to sign new contracts with their current squads.  Here is a breakdown of the Philadelphia Flyers’ free agent situation.

Key Restricted Free Agents: G Petr Mrazek – As soon as the Flyers acquired Mrazek from the Detroit Red Wings at the NHL Trade Deadline, it was anticipated that there could be some confusion this off-season. The 26-year-old goalie needs a new contract, but the team holding his exclusive negotiating rights doesn’t have a place for him right now. Philadelphia still has their 2017-18 tandem of Brian Elliott and Michal Neuvirth under contract for another season and that won’t change unless they find a trade partner for one or the other. They also have to deal with the restricted free agency of Alex Lyon and Anthony Stolarz, both of whom are younger than Mrazek and have gotten more than a taste of the NHL level over the past two seasons. There is also Carter Hart to worry about. The CHL Goaltender of the Year and arguably the best goalie prospect in hockey is already under contract and seems to have proven he is beyond the major junior level already. Hart is likely to turn pro next season and needs starts. That’s five other goalies to consider already, so where does Mrazek fit in to the Flyers’ plans?

Not only does he seemingly not have a place in the organization right now, but Mrazek’s performance over the last two seasons also raises serious questions about his ceiling and long-term role in the NHL. After a hot start to his pro career that included two seasons of AHL domination and strong NHL spot starts, followed by two more seasons of impressive play sharing the net in Detroit with Jimmy Howard, things were looking up for Mrazek. He had essentially won the starting job heading into the 2016-17 despite being just 24 years old and seemed to be the Red Wings’ long-term answer in net. That idea fell apart quickly as Mrazek’s play became sporadic and the more consistent Howard took his job back. Mrazek has now posted two straight seasons of 3.00+ goals against averages and save percentages just narrowly in the .900’s. The 17 appearances that Mrazek made in Philadelphia after the trade were even worse than his games played in Detroit early last season, including one singular, disastrous playoff appearance, negating the thought that he needed a change of scenery.

So what to expect for negotiations with a young goalie, formerly considered a rising star, who has struggled for two years, even more so with his current team, and has no role carved out for him moving forward? In all likelihood, the answer is a trade. The Flyers gave away two conditional mid-round picks to get Mrazek when they were desperate for a goalie down the stretch. They would be lucky to get that back for his RFA rights in an off-season deal. Mrazek may also end up simply not receiving a qualifying offer. If, against the odds, Philadelphia decides they want to extend Mrazek, expect just a cheap, one-year deal- nowhere near his expired $4MM cap hit – and another move or two by the organization to make some space for yet another goalie.

D Robert Hagg – One of a number of young, up-and-coming Flyers defenseman, Hagg skated in 70 games and averaged over 18 minutes a night in his rookie season. While Hagg only registered nine points on the year, he showed good two-way ability and a solid checking game. He was one of only three Philadelphia defensemen with a positive rating and played a clean game despite leading the team in hits by a wide margin with 238. There is a lot to like about the young defender.

However, there is also a lot to take into account when quantifying his next contract. The Flyers already have overpaid bruisers Andrew MacDonald and Radko Gudas signed for two more years as well as Shayne Gostisbehere on a long-term deal. Ivan Provorov will surely land an expensive, long-term deal next summer and Travis Sanheim will need an extension as well. Additionally, the gifted but unproven Samuel Morin is an RFA alongside Hagg this summer. The Flyers need to be careful with how they handle this crowded blue line. As solid as Hagg looked in his rookie year, don’t be surprised to see him sign a shorter bridge deal for only a marginal pay increase while the team waits out some of its veteran contracts.

Other RFAs: F Taylor Leier, F Danick Martel, F Tyrell Goulbourne, D Samuel Morin, D Reece Willcox, G Alex Lyon, G Anthony Stolarz

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: F Valtteri Filppula – The 34-year-old Filppula is seeking a multi-year deal. There are many who doubt that the Flyers will be the team to give it to him. The veteran center has had a long and successful career as a complementary top-nine player, but the price tag for that support-level production on his last contract was $5MM. Since coming over from the Tampa Bay Lightning two years ago, Filppula’s offense has been in decline. He has still played an important role in Philadelphia, including that of a penalty kill specialist, but with 41 points in 101 regular season games in orange and black, Filppula hasn’t earned the right to command that kind of money again. If he is willing to give up salary in exchange for term, he could still play a key bottom-six role for the Flyers. However, the open market could pull him towards a team in greater need who would be willing to better compensate him.

D Brandon Manning – Like Mrazek, Philadelphia needs to first find a place for Manning before committing to re-signing him. A career Flyer, Manning hit career highs on offense in his sixth season with the team. He also bounced back from a down 2016-17 season mentally with a safer game and more well-thought out approach. Yet, Manning’s numbers on both sides of the puck are still very pedestrian. Although there could be concerns that letting Manning walk and replacing him internally would add more inexperience to a young blue line, there is no doubt that Manning’s minutes could be easily replicated. The 28-year-old only made $975K in each of the last two years, but if he looks for a substantial raise he will likely price himself out of Philadephia’s consideration. Manning will return on a short-term, low money deal or – more likely – he will sign a similar deal for only marginally more elsewhere.

Other UFAs: F Matt Read, F Colin McDonald, D Johnny Oduya, D Will O’Neill, G Dustin Tokarski, G John Muse 

Projected Cap Space: The Flyers are not in any cap trouble right now, but things can change quickly. Currently, they have over $17MM in cap space based on this year’s cap limit of $75MM. That is expected to increase to somewhere between $78-82MM, likely giving Philly somewhere closer to $22MM in space. First things first, they need to figure out their free agency situation this year, which includes new deals for many on the long list of pro-ready RFA’s above and perhaps another one or two of their own UFA’s. This is where GM Ron Hextall will need to be careful. He doesn’t want to use up too much of his space on luxuries like unnecessary extra goalies and defenseman or overpaying an aging forward. He also doesn’t need to give a player like Hagg an expensive extension right now, especially when he is the type of player with a limited ceiling who will likely command a similar amount after a few years on a bridge deal. Next, the team needs to keep in mind that next season they will have to hand pricey extensions to Wayne Simmonds and Provorov and could very likely be on the hunt again for a starting-caliber goalie to pair with Hart moving forward. None of those transactions will come cheap and the team can’t expect another major cap jump. Instead, they will have to account for those moves this off-season. At the end of the day, $22MM or so can only get you so far when you have a complete roster and many long-term contracts. Expect the Flyers to hit the free agent market with a pretty limited budget of no more than $7-8MM, likely in search of an upgrade to Filppula and/or Manning.

Avalanche Prepared To Pick Fourth If Senators Fold

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The first fireworks of the upcoming NHL Draft may show up at pick #4. When the Ottawa Senators acquired Matt Duchene from the Colorado Avalanche, part of the substantial package was a top-ten protected 2018 first-round pick. The terms of the deal afforded the Senators a choice between trading this year’s pick or next year’s pick to Colorado if the pick landed within the top ten spots. Finishing the season with the second-worst record in the league, Ottawa was obviously locked in to the top ten. Even after bad luck dropped them to fourth overall in the NHL Draft Lottery, GM Pierre Dorion confirmed that they would hold on to the pick this year and defer to the 2019 first-rounder.

However, that was back in April and things change. It seems more likely than ever that Erik Karlsson and/or Mike Hoffman will be traded away from Ottawa this off-season and that doesn’t bode well for a Duchene extension either. There also continue to be frustrations over the management of owner Eugene Melnyk and the fiscal future of the organization. Ottawa seems far from a free agent destination right now and no closer to turning around one of the worst records in the NHL. The initial Stanley Cup odds for next season reflect this, as the Senators at 100/1 odds are alone in last place. It’s understandable for public relations purposes that the Sens keep this year’s #4, both to add an exciting new prospect and to all but confirm to fans that the outlook for next season is better this season. It may not be the smart move though.

There is a trio of top prospects in the draft this year: defenseman Rasmus Dahlin and forwards Andrei Svechnikov and Filip Zadina. After that, there is no consensus on the next-best player. In fact, the fourth overall pick more or less marks the beginning of a lesser tier of prospects; not exactly a power position in 2018. Next year, the Senators are almost certainly going to miss the playoffs and will be a lottery team with a chance to land in the top three with a lucky draw. According to odds makers, they are also the favorite to finish 31st, which would give them the best odds at the first overall pick – highly-touted franchise center Jack Hughes – and would mean that they could fall no farther than fourth again. There is risk in giving up a pick as high as #4 this year, but there is also substantial risk in not giving it away, blowing up the roster, and simply hoping for a better finish next year. The pain that the organization and the fans would feel about losing #1 after another brutal season would be far worse than giving up a non-consensus top player at #4 this year. The mounting pressure of that very real possibility could force the Senators to give in and surrender the 2018 pick.

The Avalanche know this and are remaining vigilant. The Denver Post’s Mike Chambers caught up with Colorado Director of Scouting Alan Hepple, who says the team knows what direction they would go in if they wind up with #4 this year after all. Per Chambers, the Senators can wait all the way until they are on the clock to make the pick to instead complete the trade this year. Hepple doesn’t think that will be the case, but the Avs are prepared in case it is. They certainly wouldn’t mind the spot, as the team nabbed defensive phenom Cale Makar in that same draft slot last year and would be happy to make a repeat performance. With their own pick at #16, Hepple says that the team will simply take the best player available, regardless of position, but at #4 they have identified a more pressing organizational need, as they did with the UMass puck-mover Makar last year.

If the first three picks go as expected and Ottawa isn’t thrilled by the next-best name on their draft board, they could crumble under the pressure of the potential repercussions: losing a higher pick next year. It could pay off or it could be a mistake in hindsight; there is no way to tell with a lot riding on the decision. However, if they do, Colorado is ready to jump in. It’s not the most likely outcome, but it remains a possibility, and an intriguing one, as draft day approaches.

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