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Curtis Lazar Assigned To Stockton Heat

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It’s been a tough career so far for Curtis Lazar, who today was assigned to the minor leagues and will report to the Stockton Heat of the AHL. The Calgary Flames forward has admitted this offseason that he’s willing to go down and rebuild his game, and he’ll get the chance to play a lot in the minor leagues as he tries to find something to send him back in the right direction. The 2013 17th-overall pick wore out his welcome with the Ottawa Senators in 2016-17 and was traded to the Flames for a second round pick, but still failed to produce much offense last season and finished with just two goals in 65 games. Lazar cleared waivers on Monday, and now faces the tough task of rebuilding his stock before being forgotten as a washed up top prospect.

There is so obviously plenty of talent in Lazar, but the 23-year old has never been able to establish himself at the NHL level. Caught somewhere between a checker and a scoring threat, his role led to fewer than 10 minutes a night last season for Calgary. In Stockton he should be given every chance to perform at a high level, likely including some time on the powerplay and a regular shift among the team’s best forwards. If that can spark something in him and get him back on the right track the Flames might still have an NHL player on their hands, but with a $950K one-way cap hit he’ll have to really prove it before being recalled for any length of time.

The toughest hurdle for Lazar may be that the Flames have several other young players who’ve already made a bigger impact in their short careers. Mark Jankowski staked a claim to a full-time role last season and now Dillon Dube looks to be doing the same in the early going. Lazar, who was a big time offensive weapon for the Edmonton Oil Kings in junior, is at risk of being left behind and going unqualified next summer. As an arbitration eligible forward coming off a $1.05MM salary, the Flames may decide to just move on from him if there isn’t a quick turnaround.

 

Snapshots: Canucks, Watson, Olson

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The Vancouver Canucks will not have free agent addition Antoine Roussel in the lineup when the regular season begins. Roussel has been sidelined since the start of training camp due to a concussion, but the hope was that without preseason action, he would have the time and rest to be ready for the real thing. However, in speaking to head coach Travis Green, Ben Kuzma of the Province has confirmed that Roussel will not be ready for the start of the season. Green gave no timeline for his return, only stating that a comeback in time for opening night had been ruled out. Green did add that young goaltender Thatcher Demko has also been dealing with concussion symptoms. He has entered the league’s concussion protocol and there is no word on when he will be ready to play or whether he will begin the season on the injured reserve or in the AHL. Kuzma writes that Demko collided with the Calgary Flames’ Mikael Backlund during last Saturday’s preseason match, but his condition deteriorated to the point of being diagnosed ahead of the Canucks’ next game on Monday night. Considering bottom-six forward Roussel and current third-string goalie Demko have been the only training camp casualties in Vancouver, the team has had relatively good luck. They hope it stays that was as the team needs a healthy and positive start to the season given their struggles over the past few years.

  • Another player missing to star the 2018-19 season in Nashville Predators forward Austin Watson. Watson was suspended for the first 27 games of the campaign for his role in a domestic abuse incident this off-season. Watson pled no contest to the assault charges an the NHL felt that a third of the season was fitting supplemental punishment. However, Watson did appeal his suspension and that hearing with a neutral arbitrator took place yesterday, according to TSN’s Pierre LeBrun.  LeBrun suggests that, unlike in salary arbitration, this decision could take up to a couple weeks. If Watson is successful in his appeal, an unlikely outcome, the arbitrator will choose a new, shortened length that he sees fit. If not, Watson will be eligible to return to the Predators on December 3rd.
  • Quinn Olson, the younger brother of Anaheim Ducks prospect Kyle Olson, has made a decision on where he wants to start his next season. The younger Olson will pass up the major junior route that his brother, a forward for the WHL’s Tri-City Americans, took and will instead opt to go the college route. Olson has committed to the University of Minnesota-Duluth, the NCAA’s reigning champion, reports College Hockey Inc. The undersized but effective 17-year-old forward is playing this season for the Okotoks Oilers of the junior-A Alberta Junior Hockey League and could possibly play one more season with the team, but if he continues to score at a point-per-game pace, as he has for much of the last season plus, the Bulldogs will probably try to bring him in next year instead. Olson is a draft-eligible prospect for the upcoming 2019 NHL Draft and is likely to join his brother in an NHL pipeline shortly.

Jake Dotchin Situation Could Set A Dangerous Precedent

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The situation this past week with former Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Jake Dotchin is unique unto itself. Rarely, if ever, has a player been released due to conditioning issues. Yet, that is what happened to the 24-year-old Dotchin when he showed up to camp and was deemed so out of shape by the team that they considered it to be a material breach of contract worthy of placing the young blue liner on unconditional waivers and terminating his contract.

However, conditioning is not a defined term in the NHL standard player contract. There are no clauses that dictate a certain body mass index or that demand a player meet certain levels of fitness testing. Instead, the contract only says that players must maintain good health and proper conditioning as determined by the team. The contract does state that a contract may be terminated if the player does “fail, refuse, or neglect to obey the Club’s rules governing training”.

Yet, according to Alex Killorn, the NHLPA representative for the Lightning, who spoke with The Athletic’s Joe Smith, the Lightning do not have any hard line rules governing conditioning and fitness. Killorn cites fitness tests that all players must pass on the Columbus Blue Jackets and Vancouver Canucks and states that some teams do test BMI, but that each team has different benchmarks and procedures. If a clear conditioning mandate is in place, then that is a simple determination of fault in case like Dotchin’s. However, the lack of such rules and a subjective ruling by the team is a slippery slope. What is stopping any team from issuing vague fitness rules or changing their benchmarks for the purpose of deciding that a player they no longer wish to roster is in breach of contract?

To no surprise, this scenario has caught the eye of the players’ association and Dotchin and his agent are likely to file a grievance against the Lightning that would take the case to an independent arbitrator. While, like salary arbitration, going to an independent – and unpredictable – arbitrator can be risky, Dotchin has a strong case. He would only gain more leverage if he was to sign elsewhere before the hearing. Dotchin played in 48 games for Tampa Bay last year and was on the NHL roster all season. Add that to immediately landing with another team and it may be tough for Tampa to argue that he was “materially” out of shape. The Lighting and new GM Julien Brisebois are far too smart to have made this move without thinking it through, but before an arbitrator would they have enough evidence to support a claim that this was an objective, fair decision?

The most likely outcome is a resolution between the two sides that would help to keep this sticky situation from getting more publicity and a decision that is likely to outrage one side or the other. As it stands though, the NHLPA may put the idea of clear, league-wide conditioning rules on the bargaining table for the next Collective Bargaining Agreement. Dotchin’s situation has alerted players around the league to the possibility that a team can simply decide that a player is not fit to play and terminate his contract, if they can twist the rules to do so. That simply won’t stand. This is just the beginning of a new dilemma that will need to be sorted out between the players and teams.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Rangers

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New York Rangers

Current Cap Hit: $73,823,569 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Pavel Buchnevich (one year remaining, $925K)
D Neal Pionk (one year remaining, $925K)
F Lias Andersson (three years remaining, $894K)
F Filip Chytil (three years remaining, $894K)
D Anthony DeAngelo (one year remaining, $863K)
G Alexandar Georgiev (two years remaining, $793K)

Potential Bonuses

Pionk: $850K
Andersson: $850K
Deangelo: $400K
Chytil: $350K

Total: $2.45MM

With the team in quick rebuild mode, there are some entry-level deals already and if the team continues to trend in that direction, they will have quite a bit more. The team’s most prominent player at the NHL level to date would be Buchnevich, who improved on his rookie campaign with a 14-goal, 43-point season last year. He saw more ice time as well, improving from 13:16 ATOI to 15:01 as well as saw significant time on the team’s power play, potting five goals and 11 assists with the man advantage and has earned himself a solid spot in the team’s top-six. Another improved season could see him being an expensive restricted free agent.

The team has high expectations for their two 2017 first-rounders in Andersson and Chytil. Both have shown excellent skills and have received some time playing for the NHL with Andersson seeing seven games, while saw nine games. Both are expected to earn time with the Rangers out of training camp, but both may find themselves on bottom-six lines unless they can prove that they can center the second or third lines in training camp.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Kevin Hayes ($5.18MM, UFA)
F Mats Zuccarello ($4.5MM, UFA)
D Rob O’Gara ($874K, RFA)
F Cody McLeod ($750K, UFA)
D Fredrik Claesson ($863K, RFA)
F Peter Holland ($675K, UFA)
D Steven Kampfer ($650K, UFA)
G Marek Mazanec ($650K, UFA)

The team agreed to a one-year deal with Hayes, avoiding arbitration, but now face the possibility that Hayes could walk away at the end of the season as he will be unrestricted, which will force the team into two possible directions, including attempting to work out a long-term deal with the team after Jan. 1, 2019, or trading him, possibly at the trading deadline if the two sides can’t agree on anything. Hayes, who has been a jack of all trades playing multiple positions, seems to have developed into a solid center as he produced his best season ever, which included 25 goals, eight more than any previous year. The question is, do the Rangers view him as a fixture in their lineup as they continue to rebuild?

At age 30, Zuccarrello still puts up solid numbers, but despite the high-end minutes that the veteran gets, he falls into a similar category to that of Hayes where you have to ask whether he is in the team’s long-term plans. The winger is penciled in to play on the team’s top line once again, but has only put up 31 goals over the past two seasons. He does produce quite a few assists (81 over the past two years), but what the Rangers need more than anything is goals. Zuccarello will also turn 32 before he begins his next contract and at that age, how long are the Rangers willing to commit to him?

Two Years Remaining

F Chris Kreider ($4.63MM, UFA)
F Ryan Spooner ($4MM, UFA)
F Vladislav Namestnikov ($4MM, UFA)
F Jimmy Vesey ($2.28MM, UFA)
F Matt Beleskey ($1.9MM, UFA)
F Jesper Fast ($1.85MM, UFA)

Kreider is coming off a tough year in which he had to deal with blood clots and had surgery to relieve the pressure and missed almost two months of time. The 27-year-old didn’t have as solid of a season as he tallied just 16 goals in 58 games, which is a far cry from the 28 goals he scored in 2016-17 although a lot of that is due to the fact that his playing time dipped as the team didn’t want to play him too many minutes due to the blood clot issue. Regardless with a full offseason to rest and recuperate, Kreider should be able to bounce back as one of the team’s top scorers.

The team also have high expectations from two other forwards that the team acquired through at the trade deadline a year ago in Namestnikov and Spooner. Namestnikov was the biggest name to arrive in New York in the Ryan McDonagh trade with Tampa Bay. He was a key player for the Lightning, posting 20 goals and 44 points with them, but he actually lost playing time once he arrived in New York and put up just two goals and four points in 19 games. The team hopes that a new coach and proper training camp with his new team will make quite a difference. Spooner came over in the Rick Nash trade with Boston and has posted solid numbers with the Bruins over the past few seasons and could turn out to be a top-six wing or third-line center in New York. Between the two teams, Spooner combined for 13 goals and 28 assists.

The team also expect big things from Vesey, who signed as a undrafted collegiate free agent a couple of years ago and if finally starting to show that he belongs in the NHL. The 25-year-old winger has put up solid numbers for two years, but could find himself getting more opportunities in the team’s rebuild. In two years, he’s combined for 33 goals and 55 points.

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Gemel Smith Awarded $720K In Arbitration

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Soon after it was announced that Cody Ceci had been awarded $4.3MM in arbitration, Gemel Smith was given his new contract. The Dallas Stars forward has been awarded a one-year one-way $720K contract. Smith had filed for $900K, while the team had responded with a two-way contract offer while also placing him on waivers a few days before the hearing. Because the deal is under the walk-away threshold, the Stars had no choice but to sign Smith to the contract—something they’re likely just fine with given Smith’s value to the club as a depth forward.

The 24-year old played in 46 games last season, and though he recorded just 11 points he’s a useful player to keep around at such a low cost. Given that he has already cleared waivers, the team may decide to try and sneak him through again just before the season and keep him in the minor leagues, but there’s no guarantee a team wouldn’t jump at the opportunity in September. Had anyone claimed Smith they would have inherited his arbitration hearing without a possibility to reschedule, something teams don’t like to do without time to prepare.

Still, Smith may find himself behind other young forwards like Remi Elie, Jason Dickinson and Roope Hintz this year. He’ll have to battle for any playing time with the NHL club, but should be able to at least be an injury replacement. Though he is scheduled to still be a restricted free agent after this season, he actually could become a Group VI UFA should he fail to play in 17 games at the NHL level. The Stars will likely want to keep his rights, meaning he’ll get at least that many.

Cody Ceci Awarded $4.3MM Contract In Arbitration

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The arbitrator has made a decision and awarded Cody Ceci a one-year $4.3MM contract. Ceci had filed for $6.0MM, while the team had countered with $3.35MM. He will still be a restricted free agent at the end of the deal, but is now prohibited from signing an extension until January.

That is of course if Ceci and the Senators sign the deal at all, given that it is above the walk-away threshold of $4,222,941. The Senators could decide to allow Ceci to go to unrestricted free agency instead of taking the award, though that seems extremely unlikely in their current position. The team relies on Ceci heavily as the anchor of their defensive pairing, and if Erik Karlsson is indeed traded in the next few weeks Ceci would become the de facto #1 defenseman in Ottawa. The 24-year old already logged more than 23 minutes a night for the past two seasons, though that has come with very mixed results.

As the analytical community will point out, Ceci has never put up good possession numbers through his NHL career. That assessment comes in opposition of how the Senators obviously view him, and how his skills present themselves on the ice. A good skater with a quick pass and active stick, Ceci looks like he should be a solid two-way contributor for Ottawa. With just 19 points last season—and only 14 of those at even-strength—the offensive side of his game has still never really materialized, and he’s been given more and more difficult defensive matchups. With partner Dion Phaneuf now gone, Ceci will likely be paired with either Mark Borowiecki or Ben Harpur on the second pairing (assuming Karlsson is still around) to allow young Thomas Chabot more offensive freedom.

Next summer, Ceci will be eligible for arbitration again and would only be eligible for a one-year award. Similar to the situation Mark Stone found himself in this summer, Ceci would have to decide whether he wanted to explore a long-term deal or take his chances on the unrestricted free agent market in 2020. It’s not clear if the rest of the NHL holds him as high as Ottawa does, but there’s no doubt that he would have several suitors interesting in bringing him aboard. The Senators will obviously try to re-sign the young defenseman, but as with almost everyone on their roster they’ll have to consider a trade at some point.

We examined the Senators situation yesterday, and noted that they have almost no one on the books past the 2019-20 season. That allows them to pick and choose how to rebuild their franchise after falling so far in the last year, and Ceci will be a key decision. Since an arbitration award next summer will likely be even higher than the $4.3MM, they’ll have to decide whether he’s a core piece going forward or just more trade fodder to cash in for future assets.

Mark Stone, Ottawa Senators Avoid Arbitration

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With neither side really wanting to go through the arbitration process today in Toronto, Mark Stone and the Ottawa Senators have settled on a one-year contract. The deal will pay Stone $7.35MM this season, and carry him through to unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2019. The two sides cannot sign an extension until January. Our Brian La Rose projected this exact contract yesterday when he broke down the Stone arbitration case.

The 26-year old played just 58 games for the Senators last season, but was easily the team’s best forward registering 20 goals and 62 points. That point-per-game pace pushed Stone from a very good player to one of the league’s best, especially when combined with his trademark takeaway ability and solid defensive presence. Even with the limited number of games, he still earned Selke votes for the fourth consecutive year and led all Senators in takeaways.

For all the positive things Stone brings, a one-year contract will lead to immediate speculation about his future in Ottawa. The team is heading for a rebuild, and now all three of their best players are scheduled to become unrestricted free agents next summer. Stone, Erik Karlsson and Matt Duchene all have just one year remaining on their deals, making them prime trade candidates over the next few months. Even if things go better than expected during the first half of the 2018-19 season, the team still has to consider moving these big assets for whatever they can get, depending on whether they’re willing to sign a long-term extension. Though it’s unclear if Stone would even re-enter negotiations, the fact that the two sides couldn’t come to an agreement this summer only puts creates more pressure down the road.

The Senators will have a two-month window to sign Stone at the beginning of 2019 before facing the trade deadline. If he remains unsigned, you can bet there will be dozens of teams clamoring to get a piece of him as a playoff rental with a chance to re-sign him to a long-term deal. Evander Kane, Paul Stastny and others set the market this season, but Stone is a more effective offensive piece than either of them and could bring back a bigger package should his contributions on the ice continue this season. As one of only a few top-end options in Ottawa, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him receive more than 20 minutes a night once again.

Those first line minutes shouldn’t come as a surprise now that Stone carries such a huge salary. His new contract makes him the 24th-highest paid forward in the league for 2018-19, putting pressure on him to perform as the best player up front for Ottawa. It also means that a long-term extension would be incredibly pricey, something that the Senators may just not have the money for. Remember this was a restricted free agent year still, which usually comes in at a lower price than the player would be demanding on the UFA market. If Stone wanted an even bigger cap hit for seven or eight years, Ottawa might have to back out of negotiations purely from a financial standpoint.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Arbitration Breakdown: Mark Stone

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While the Senators have already gone through one arbitration hearing this week with defenseman Cody Ceci, they’re on the verge of needing to do so with winger Mark Stone as well as his hearing is set for Friday morning.  The pre-hearing filings were exchanged on Wednesday with Ottawa offering $5MM and Stone asking for $9MM.  This has the potential to be a record-setting award so let’s take a closer look at this case.

The Numbers

Over the past four seasons, the 26-year-old has been pretty consistent offensively.  He has scored at least 20 times in each of those years and has had between 54-64 points in those seasons as well.  That type of production lines up with a high-end second liner or quality top liner.

However, 2017-18’s numbers have to be looked at a little closer.  Stone posted 62 points (20-42-62) last year but did so in only 58 games.  In other words, he played at an 88-point pace which ranked 14th league-wide among qualifying players.  That would put him in the high-end front liner range which likely has played a big role in his asking price.

The Senators haven’t hesitated to use Stone in all situations.  He led the team in ice time by a forward by a sizable margin (while ranking 11th league-wide) and averaged more than three minutes per night on the power play with a couple of shorthanded shifts as well.

With that in mind, it’s going to be difficult for Ottawa to argue that Stone deserves to be paid like a second-line player when their own usage of him is considerably different not to mention his big jump in points per game last season.

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency. For this exercise, I’ve taken it a step further and restricted this list to deals inked with arbitration eligibility which takes post-ELC deals like Nathan MacKinnon, Mark Scheifele, and Vladimir Tarasenko off the table.

Jonathan Huberdeau (Florida) – Huberdeau signed his current deal that carries a $5.9MM cap hit (4.45 cap hit percentage) after a 59-point season and was viewed as the time as someone that could be a top line player but would be even better on the second line.  That seems to be what Ottawa is going for here so it wouldn’t be surprising if they’re citing this deal as a comparable although it seems fair to say that this comparable is going to be on the low end.

Ryan Johansen (Nashville) – Johansen inked an eight-year, $64MM deal (10.67 cap hit percentage) coming off a three-year bridge contract which is the same situation as Stone is currently in.  At that time, he had four seasons of 60 or more points under his belt so Ottawa could try to argue that Johansen’s track record offensively is better.  However, Johansen hasn’t gotten particularly close to the point-per-game mark that Stone passed last season either.

Ryan O’Reilly (St. Louis) – While Stone isn’t elite at the faceoff dot like O’Reilly ($7.5MM AAV, 10.5 cap hit percentage) is, the similarities are fairly strong otherwise.  At the time the deal was signed, O’Reilly was coming off seasons of 64 and 55 points and his production since then has ranged between 55-61 points which is right in Stone’s range as well.  On top of that, they’re both well-regarded as two-way forwards.

Blake Wheeler (Winnipeg) – While Wheeler’s contract ($5.6MM AAV, 8.71 cap hit percentage) is now viewed as a bargain, the fact he’s significantly outperformed the contract since he signed it back in 2013 doesn’t really matter much.  At the time of the deal, Wheeler only had one 60-point year under his belt (although he played at that pace in the lockout-shortened year as well).  His cap hit is close to Ottawa’s submission but once you factor in the increase in the salary cap since then, the value in today’s dollars is just shy of $7MM.

Projection

The awards thus far have been right down the middle of the filings and there’s a decent chance that will be the case here as well.  It may be a bit tough for Stone to get the 10% or higher that Johansen and O’Reilly got as he doesn’t play the premium position they do either.  It will also be difficult for the arbitrator to really assess the season Stone just had – is that a sign of things to come or the statistical outlier?  Given that he has been closer to a 0.8 point-per-game average for the better part of his career, I think the arbitrator may skew a little more conservatively here.

Could this award (if it gets that far) set the record for the biggest one ever, surpassing Shea Weber’s $7.5MM?  It could, but I don’t think it will.  The cap percentage for that deal was 11.66 which is higher than what Stone’s probably going to get.

That said, Stone has a shot at setting a new award record for a forward ($7MM for John LeClair in 2000).  It wouldn’t be surprising to see the award come in between the filings midpoint of $7MM and Weber’s record award.  I think if Stone had put up a second season of close to point-per-game production, an award closer to $8MM would have been a legitimate possibility.  Instead, a one-year, $7.35MM contract (9.25 cap hit percentage) feels like a reasonable projection, one that lines him up for unrestricted free agency next summer and a whole lot of trade speculation between now and then.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Troy Brouwer Placed On Unconditional Waivers, Will Be Bought Out

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The Calgary Flames earned a second buyout window after wrapping up their arbitration cases, and are going to take advantage of it. The team has placed Troy Brouwer on unconditional waivers for the purpose of a buyout, something that we suggested might happen when Garnet Hathaway settled on Monday. Brouwer has two years remaining on his current deal, and carries a $4.5MM cap hit.

Because Brouwer’s contract has no signing bonuses remaining and was not front-loaded, the Flames will save a considerable amount over the next two years. They will now carry just a $1.5MM cap hit for the next four seasons, giving them plenty of flexibility for 2018-19. Not only will the team now have around $7.5MM in cap space with only Noah Hanifin and Hunter Shinkaruk left to sign, but they also will gain a roster spot for some of their younger forwards. Hathaway, Curtis Lazar, Dillon Dube and Spencer Foo will all be battling for playing time in training camp, as the Flames try to get quicker and more skilled on their fourth line.

That lack of skill and speed was the downfall of Brouwer, who plays a physical, bruising game. While he put up consistent offensive numbers throughout a good portion of his career, those numbers dropped off dramatically since signing a four-year $18MM contract with Calgary in 2016. It was a scary contract right from the outset given Brouwer was already 31 when he played his first game in a Flames uniform, and those fears came true almost immediately. In 2016-17 he recorded just 13 goals, his lowest total since his rookie season and followed it with just six last year in a diminished role.

A diminished role is exactly what he might find elsewhere this season, as there will surely be teams lined up to sign him for a lower salary. Teams looking for leadership, physicality and plenty of experience on their fourth line will be interested in a cheap Brouwer, who can sign as soon as the Flames officially buy him out.

William Karlsson, Vegas Golden Knights Exchange Arbitration Figures

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The very last arbitration hearing on the books, scheduled for Saturday, is with William Karlsson of the Vegas Golden Knights. Almost an impossible to predict contract given his absolute offensive explosion last season, Karlsson and the Golden Knights have exchanged figures today. Chris Johnston of Sportsnet reports that Karlsson filed for a $6.5MM salary, while the team has offered $3.5MM.

Karlsson, 25, was originally drafted by the Anaheim Ducks in 2011, but was eventually sent to Columbus as part of a package for James Wisniewski. Despite his obvious potential as a defensive center, there wasn’t a ton of opportunity for him to show what he could do on the offensive side of the puck for the Blue Jackets. In 165 games for Columbus he scored just 47 points. Well, after heading to the Golden Knights in the expansion draft he nearly matched that total in just goals, scoring 43 on the season and registering 78 points. He would take home a Lady Byng trophy, and finish in the top-10 for both the Hart and Selke trophies, while also helping the team to a Stanley Cup Finals appearance.

It’s that lack of offensive history that could hurt Karlsson in arbitration, as the team will argue it was an outlier and he poses a real risk of regression next season. Karlsson did shoot an incredibly high 23.4% in 2017-18, a number that is almost certain to go down in the future. If that number dropped to something like 15%, which is still well above league average, Karlsson would have scored fewer than 30 goals had his shot creation stayed the same. Obviously no one knows what will happen down the line for him, but after earning just $1MM last season it’s tough to justify a $5.5MM raise.

There is obviously also the chance that the two sides will come together on a long-term deal that could buy out some of Karlsson’s unrestricted free agent years, but as of yesterday nothing was imminent. Since he is two years away from UFA status, you can bet the Golden Knights will choose for a one-year arbitration award should it get that far. That way he’ll still be a restricted free agent next summer, giving the team more time to negotiate with him.

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