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Roster Crunch: Central Division

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Previously, we looked at some of the battles for the last few spots among Pacific Division teams, happening to focus mostly on the third pairing on many teams.  With the Anaheim Ducks leading the way with their glut of young defenders, we’ll head to the Central Division next where there are a few teams who might be contenders to scoop up one of extra Ducks pieces.

Dallas Stars –  It’s not often you see a team lose three of it’s top-four defenders in one offseason, but that’s what happened to the Stars this summer after Alex Goligoski, Jason Demers and Kris Russell all became unrestricted free agents. While Russell has yet to sign, he was probably miscast as the 24-minute-a-night player the Stars used him as down the stretch. They brought in Dan Hamhuis to fill one of the spots, but it’ll be a battle between Jamie Oleksiak, Stephen Johns, Patrik Nemeth, Jordie Benn and Esa Lindell for playing time this year. Because Johns is the only right-handed member of that group, perhaps Julius Honka, a former first-round pick, will make his NHL debut this season as well.

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Restricted Free Agent Contract Projections: Kucherov, Gaudreau, Lindholm, Trouba

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Late in restricted free agency, there are still a number of highly skilled players who remain unsigned. These players generally lack leverage, because other teams behave cautiously given the compensation rules. Then consider that this late in the summer, most teams have their budgets set. If a restricted free agent is paid, it’s often to buy years of unrestricted free agency.

Even into August, there are still candidates to have those years controlled. Here’s a look at what kind of deals four of them may be pursuing.

  • Nikita Kucherov – Having just turned 23, Kucherov is coming off a 30 goal, 36 assist season, leading the Lightning with 66 points. In 2015, his season was nearly identical, with one fewer goal, and the same number of assists. Filip Forsberg is a year younger, but put up very similar offensive numbers for Nashville this year. Forsberg just signed a six year contract worth $6MM per year. Look for Kucherov to get a similar deal. Projection: 6 years, $36MM
  • Johnny Gaudreau – Just shy of 23, Gaudreau has 55 goals, 143 points, in 160 NHL games. This year, Gaudreau hit career highs of 30 goals and 48 points in 79 games. There has been talk of the Flames and Gaudreau pushing for a deal since February, with nothing to show for it. As Eric Francis notes in that link, the closest comparable is Vladimir Tarasenko, who is signed to an eight-year, $60MM contract. Still, there’s a case Gaudreau has actually shown more in the NHL than Tarasenko had before signing. The Flames are also more dependent on him, at least until someone like Sam Bennett breaks out. Projection: 8 years, $64MM
  • Hampus Lindholm – At 22, Lindholm led defensemen in Corsi Relative. That is, he increased his team’s share of the game’s shot attempts more than any defenseman to play 750 minutes. Lindholm’s problem is that NHL teams are often skeptical of these numbers. This leaves defensemen of similar ages and with similar scoring numbers as the most likely comparisons. Calgary’s Dougie Hamilton got $5.75MM per season last year, but he also plays the much scarcer right side, and Calgary traded assets for him. It would have been fairly embarrassing had he not been signed quickly. The Ducks will play hardball, but if they get Lindholm at under that price, it’ll be well worth it. Projection: 5 years, $25MM
  • Jacob Trouba – Trouba is 22 and well regarded around the league, but the reported debate over role will hurt him. As mentioned before, restricted free agents are paid usually when teams want to buy years of unrestricted free agency. If the Jets don’t believe that Trouba is ready for an increased role, it’s unlikely they’re in a rush to pay him for it. This has the looks of something bitter developing, but it’s most likely  he’ll get some sort of bridge deal. Projection: 2 years, $8MM

Salary Cap Report: Pacific Division

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As the hockey world takes its collective breath before the World Cup, training camps, and the regular season, most teams have checked off their boxes and marked their ledgers. Some teams are not finished building their rosters, with RFAs still to sign and trades to explore. Some teams have plenty of space to maneuver with; other teams will need to get creative to stay under the cap.

We’ll continue our Salary Cap Reports by taking a look at the Pacific Division. Of note:

By the numbers:

Also in the Salary Cap Report series: Metropolitan Division and Atlantic Division.

Roster Crunch: Pacific Division

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While the NHL season is still more than two months away, it seems as though most teams have finished their free agent shopping and are now focused internally on roster decisions they’ll have to make. We’ll take a look at some of the options teams will have this fall, starting with the Pacific Division.

Anaheim Ducks – 2015-16 division winners Anaheim were discussed at length last weekend, with seemingly way too many bodies than roster spots on their blueline. With between seven and ten players who deserve to be in the NHL next season (depending on how you feel about youngsters Shea Theodore and Andy Welinski), the team is still expected to make a move to shore up their forward group.

Los Angeles Kings – Like the Ducks, the Kings have quite a few options on their back-end after signing Tom Gilbert to a one-year contract.  With four spots locked up between Drew Doughty, Jake Muzzin, Alec Martinez and Brayden McNabb, the last two will be some combination of Gilbert, veteran Rob Scuderi and Matt Greene. That’s to say nothing of NCAA transplant Paul LaDue who will figure into the Kings’ plans before long.

San Jose Sharks – It’s said that depth down the middle is a key to success in the NHL, and the Sharks have that in spades.  It looks like they’ll go into next season with at least six forwards who are capable of playing center. Often last season the top line was made up of three of them, with Joe Thornton between Tomas Hertl and Joe Pavelski. If the team wants to move the young Hertl back to his natural position (as they did at points last season), they’ll have to find ice-time for him behind Thornton and Logan Couture.

Arizona Coyotes – The crunch has already started to affect Arizona, as the team bought out veteran Antoine Vermette recently to open up a spot for one of their young forwards. With Dylan Strome and Christian Dvorak both leaving junior after huge seasons, they’ll look to make the jump to the NHL this season. The Coyotes may ice one of the youngest lines in the league this year, if Strome ends up between Max Domi and Anthony Duclair like many have speculated. Another spot could open up if RFA Tobias Rieder ends up overseas next season, as has been rumored lately.

Calgary Flames – Will top pick Matthew Tkachuk break camp with the Flames, and where will he play? Many eyes will be focused on the second-generation NHLer this fall, as he tries to force his way onto the Flames roster. Otherwise, the Flames have some decisions to make on the blueline if Ladislav Smid declares himself healthy enough to start the season and Dennis Wideman remains on the roster. Jyrki Jokipakka hopes he did enough last season to deserve a spot, but if both veterans are around when October 12th roles around, he may find himself on the outside looking in.

Vancouver Canucks – The Canucks are one of the hardest teams to figure out in the league, as they seem caught somewhere between rebuilding and trying to contend. Outside of their top-four, it’ll be a battle for the defensemen in camp to lock up a spot.  Luca Sbisa has a contract that will probably guarantee him a spot, but his diminished play and injury history makes him a poor choice for the Canucks. If they decide to contend, icing him every night ahead of younger, more effective defensemen seems unwise.

Edmonton Oilers – It’s been long said that the Oilers don’t have any defensemen, and while it may still be figuratively true based on the overall skill, the team actually has too many bodies for their back end under contract. After trading for Adam Larsson, the team has eight defenders worthy of NHL time, including Jordan Oesterle who many believe proved his ability last season. One of them though, former captain Andrew Ference, may be on his own way out as he has stated more than once he’s heading to retirement if the Oilers’ buy him out.  They haven’t been able to yet because of Ference’s lingering injury, but the two sides should come to an agreement before camp.

Snapshots: Shinkaruk, Yamamoto

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Just prior to the trade deadline in February, the Calgary Flames and Vancouver Canucks executed an interesting, challenge-type trade. The Flames dealt C Markus Granlund, a player they originally selected in the 2nd round of the 2011 draft, to the Canucks for their 2013 1st round pick, Hunter Shinkaruk.

Granlund had failed to earn a regular role with the Flames and at the time of the deal didn’t seem to be considered much of a prospect anymore. As a more recent draft selection, Shinkaruk still had the look of a solid prospect, even if there may be more risk associated with his development.

Nevertheless, Shinkaruk now gets to suit up in his hometown playing for the team he grew up rooting for and is intent on earning a regular role on the wing in Calgary, according to this piece from the team’s website. Given the talented young pivots the Flames have – Sean Monahan and Sam Bennett specifically – Shinkaruk should have an excellent opportunity to not only make the club but to produce as well.

Calgary Depth Chart

Now, more from around the NHL, focusing particularly on prospects.

  • The Anaheim Ducks have signed their 2015 3rd round pick, RW Deven Sideroff to an ELC. According to General Fanager, Sideroff’s contract will max out at an AAV of $925,000 should he earn his performance bonuses. Sideroff was chosen 84th overall out of Kamploops in the WHL and finished his junior career with 39 goals and 109 points in 141 games. He also appeared in one contest with Anaheim’s AHL affiliate, the San Diego Gulls, and will likely spend much of the upcoming season there.
  • Ryan Kennedy of The Hockey News has an interesting piece on 2017 draft prospect Kailer Yamamoto, who some scouts “cautiously” compare to Johnny Gaudreau. Yamamoto, grew up in the Spokane, Washington area and was taught to skate by the mother of Tampa Bay Lightning forward Tyler Johnson. Yamamoto is close with Johnson and considers the Lighting sniper to be a “role model”. While it’s premature and probably unfair to compare Yamamoto to any established NHL player, much less one of Gaudreau’s caliber, it does seem quite possible we’ll hear his name called early on during the 2017 draft.

Late Free Agent Signings Who Made A Difference

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Most of the best free agents are gone in the first few days of July, but sometimes the best value signings occur later on in the summer. There are generally at least a couple of guys who sign late, or who fight for a contract in training camp, and end up providing value for years. Here’s a list of some guys who should give you hope that your team can still make a savvy signing.

  • Clarke MacArthur – At the 2010 trade deadline, the Buffalo Sabres shipped MacArthur to the Atlanta Thrashers for third and fourth round picks in 2010. Over the full season he put up 16 goals, 35 points in 81 games, including three goals, nine points in 21 games for the Thrashers. This led to a $2.4MM, one-year arbitration award, which Atlanta rejected. The Toronto Maple Leafs then signed MacArthur to a one-year, $1.1MM deal, and he broke out for 21 goals, 62 points in 82 games that season. After signing a two-year extension, he put up another 20 goal season in 2012. MacArthur struggled the next year, never quite fitting with new Leafs’ coach Randy Carlyle. He was scratched often, before injuries forced him into the lineup in the playoffs, where he scored two goals in five games. The Ottawa Senators signed him two a two-year deal, and after a 24 goal, 55 point season, gave him a new five-year deal, worth $4.65MM per year. MacArthur’s injuries have slowed him down, but it’s hard to argue he wasn’t a great value signing.
  • Anton Stralman – At 25-years old in 2011, Stralman failed to earn a roster spot after a professional tryout with the New Jersey Devils. He’d been traded or let go of by the Maple Leafs, Flames, and Blue Jackets over the last two years, and was just looking for a job. In November, a Rangers team with a depleted defensive group decided to take a chance on him. Stralman quickly proved himself to be of value, and played in the top-four of a Rangers’ team that went to the Stanley Cup Finals. Unfortunately for the Rangers, in a cap world, you don’t always get all the benefits of your own good work, so Stralman signed a five-year, $4.5MM per year deal with the Lightning in July of 2014.
  • Teemu Selanne – It might seem weird to have Selanne here, given he’s a lock for the Hall of Fame, but it was different in 2005. Everyone was a late signing, given that the lockout pushed the start of free agency until August 1st. Still, Selanne had to wait until the 21st to get a one-year deal for low money, which many thought was about getting one last NHL season in before retirement. He was 35, had declined in his time with the Sharks, and then failed to live up to expectations in Colorado. Instead of ending his career, Selanne scored 40 goals and 90 points. The next year, he led the Ducks in scoring, winning the 2007 Stanley Cup. Selanne’s run with Anaheim, who he had previously played for from 1996 to 2001, would last not one year, but nine.
  • Dan Cleary – The salary cap coming around in 2005 was a huge problem for the Detroit Red Wings. They ended up having to buy out the contracts of Derian Hatcher, Ray Whitney, and Darren McCarty, and since the end of 2004, had to move on from Dominik Hasek, Curtis Joseph, and Brett Hull. At the time, Cleary was a former top prospect who couldn’t stick with the Blackhawks, Oilers, and Coyotes, and was just looking for work. He came to Detroit’s training camp while they were desperate to fill out a roster, and signed the day before the season started. He had only three goals, 15 points for the Red Wings that year, but the team liked him well enough to keep him, and he went on to score 2o goals, 40 points in 2007. He’d hit the 20 goal mark two more times, and stay with the Red Wings until 2015, winning the Stanley Cup in 2008.
  • Matt Moulson – Moulson was a 25 year old veteran AHL scorer when the Islanders signed him in July 2009. It wasn’t a late signing, but it was definitely overlooked. 29 games into his NHL career, all with the Kings, he was never assumed to be a future impact player. He had been taken in the 9th round by Pittsburgh, and even the articles on his signing group him in with minor leaguers. Moulson responded by making the team out of camp, playing on the top line with John Tavares, and scoring a total of 97 goals over the next three seasons. The goals haven’t come quite as easily to Moulson since he joined the Buffalo Sabres, but at 33 he’s had a strong run in the NHL. If the only free agents a team signed were the flashy ones they gave five-year deals to, he may have never been able to prove himself.

Minor Signings

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Here’s the latest on minor free agent signings, and one player to accept a tryout:

  • James Mirtle reports that defenseman Stu Bickel, 29, has agreed to a tryout with the Anaheim Ducks. Bickel has no goals, but 10 assists in 76 career NHL games for the New York Rangers and Minnesota Wild. He last appeared in the NHL in 2015. Bickel was originally signed by the Ducks as an undrafted free agent in 2008.
  • General Fanager tweets that forward Danny Kristo has re-signed with the St. Louis Blues. It will be a one-year, two-way contract. Kristo’s salary will come in at $575K in the NHL, and $175K in the AHL. At 26, he’s never played a game in the NHL, despite being a secound round pick of the Montreal Canadiens in 2008. Kristo spent last year with the Blues’ AHL affiliates, the Chicago Wolves.
  • Gold Star Sports Management say their client Roman Dyukov has signed a one-year contract with the Calgary Flames. The 20 year old Belarussian defenseman scored eight points in 32 games for Yunior Minsk last year, and played at the IIHF World Championships.

 

Minor Transactions: 8/1/16

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Here is where we’ll keep track of today’s minor transactions:

  • Former NHL’er Sergei Kostitsyn, who was seeking an NHL deal this summer, has signed a contract with Dinamo Minsk of the KHL, the Russian team announced (link in Russian). This marks the fourth different KHL squad in as many years for the 29 year old Belarusian.  Kostitsyn spent time with both Nashville and Montreal from 2007-08 to 2012-13, picking up 67 goals and 109 assists in 353 games.
  • New Jersey UFA defenseman Marc-Andre Gragnani is also joining Dynamo Minsk on a one year deal, the team announced (link in Russian). Gragnani spent most of last year with the Devils’ AHL affiliate in Albany, collecting a goal and 30 assists in 57 games.  He also skated in four games with New Jersey, being held pointless while averaging 14:22 per game.  Gragnani has played in 78 career NHL contests with the Sabres, Canucks, Hurricanes, and Devils, scoring three goals and 15 assists.
  • Former NHL blueliner Andrej Meszaros has signed a one year deal with Bratislava of the KHL, the Slovak team announced (link in Slovak). Meszaros played last season with Sibir Novosibirsk of the KHL but before that, he spent parts of ten seasons in the NHL.  He has 238 points (63 goals and 175 assists) in 645 career NHL contests with Ottawa, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, Boston, and Buffalo.
  • Linus Omark, who last played in the NHL with Buffalo in 2014, has inked a two year extension with Salavat Yulaev of the KHL, the Russian team announced (link in Russian). Omark has long been thought of as one of the more talented players outside the NHL but has failed to produce in a couple of different NHL stints.  He finished fifth in KHL scoring last season with 57 points in 60 games.
  • Group 6 Free Agent Danny Kristo agreed to terms with the St. Louis Blues, inking a one year, two-way contrack worth $575K (NHL) / $175K (AHL). The American forward scored 25G and 23A in 75 games for the AHL Chicago Wolves.
  • Stu Bickel agreed to a Professional Tryout with the Anaheim Ducks, according to Globe and Mail’s James Mirtle. Bickel spent last season with Anaheim’s AHL Affiliate San Diego Gulls, scoring 1G and 6A in 59 games.
  • Arizona Coyotes’ first round draft pick Jakob Chychrun’s contract details were released today. The defenseman will receive the league maximum $925K a year for the length of his ELC, and up to $425K in Schedule A bonuses. The Coyotes moved up in the draft to select Chychrun with the 16th overall selection by taking on Pavel Datysuk’s contract from Detroit in exchange for the higher draft pick.

Anaheim Ducks’ Defense Crunch

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When the Anaheim Ducks were eliminated this spring by the Nashville Predators in seven games, many pointed fingers at the poor performance of some of the top offensive options. Corey Perry had not scored a single goal, registering a -7 rating in the series, completely erased by a stifling Predator defense group.  The Ducks’ defense, even in losing, were just as spectacular, keeping the Predators to only 14 goals in the series and moving the puck with relative ease from their end.

It’s this defense group though, that may be giving the Ducks’ front office the most headaches this summer, as there are furiously tough decisions to make in the coming months.  Currently, it has seven men deserving of NHL spots, to say nothing of up-and-comers Shea Theodore and Brandon Montour, and NCAA transplant Andy Welinski.

The group consists of Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler, Kevin Bieksa, Clayton Stoner, Josh Manson, Simon Despres and Hampus Lindholm all solid NHLers, with contracts to prove it.  The group, led by Vatanen, is set to earn $20.65MM next season, not even including Lindholm’s yet-to-be-signed deal that could push $6MM AAV.

While every team needs depth on the blueline, not many can afford to put millions of dollars in the press box every night, waiting for an injury to happen.  While Fowler’s name has been bandied about since the Ducks were eliminated, nothing concrete has come out about Anaheim’s true desire to move him. Indeed, it would be a tough decision to move any member of the group, as each comes with their own strengths.

With Lindholm and Rickard Rakell still to sign, and under $8.5MM to do it, the Ducks will be tight to the cap if they head into the season with all seven blueliners under contract. They also risk losing one of their prized defensemen next offseason, when the Las Vegas TBAs get to pluck unprotected players from unsuspecting clubs in the expansion draft. Bieksa has a no-movement clause, and will therefor be automatically protected, leaving just two more defense slots (or three, if the Ducks choose to go with the eight-skater option and leave a young forward unprotected).

Fowler still seems like the most likely candidate for trade, but there is little doubt that teams would be more interested in the extremely cheap Josh Manson who, while earning only $825K per season, rates well at both ends of the rink and could become a building block for a new team on the right side.

With the pipeline that Anaheim has created, they would do well to leverage it into some help up front. Their current group is getting older, headlined by Perry, Ryan Getzlaf and Ryan Kesler who will all turn 32 in the next calendar year and are already starting to see cracks form in their production. Rakell and Jakob Silfverberg form a dynamic young duo, but represent the only two threats at forward under 26 years of age for the Ducks going forward.

(Anaheim Ducks’ Depth Chart via Roster Resource)

The Latest On Rickard Rakell’s Contract Talks

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As we head towards August, the Anaheim Ducks still have two key restricted free agents to re-sign.  One of those is forward Rickard Rakell, who is coming off a career year.

Rakell’s agent, Peter Wallen spoke with Eric Stephens of the OC Register regarding negotiations and said that “We are talking and I think we will find common ground for a solid agreement as I feel both parties seem to want that to happen very much”.

Rakell is coming off his entry-level contract and did not have any arbitration rights this offseason.  He played in 72 games with the Ducks last season, collecting 20 goals and 23 assists, setting career highs in both categories.  He also saw a significant increase in ice time from 12:34 per game in 2014-15 to 16:04 last year.

Anaheim currently has just over $8.4MM in cap space according to Cap Friendly but also still have defenseman Hampus Lindholm to re-sign.  There may not enough space to sign both to long-term contracts so one of the two may be forced into taking a shorter-term bridge deal as a result.

If they opt for a long-term deal, Rakell is comparable to Hurricanes forward Victor Rask, who inked a six year, $24MM contract earlier this offseason.  A deal like that would buy out all of the remaining RFA years plus a pair of UFA-eligible seasons.  If they go the bridge route though, his stats the last couple of seasons are similar to San Jose’s Tomas Hertl, who signed a two year, $6MM pact late last month.  Going that route would likely allow them to be able to sign Lindholm on a long-term contract this summer but would likely result in Rakell receiving a higher AAV down the road.

The preseason is still nearly two months away so there’s no rush to get something done with Rakell or Lindholm but if GM Bob Murray wants to make any more moves this offseason, he’ll likely need to get contracts done with both players to see how much cap and budget space he has left to work with.

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