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Tampa Bay, Dallas Among Teams Facing Contract Limit Crunch

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The Tampa Bay Lightning are not only up against the NHL’s $81.5MM salary cap upper limit, but also the league’s 50-contract limit. They’re not alone either; in addition to the Bolts, the Dallas Stars, Los Angeles Kings, Ottawa Senators, and Anaheim Ducks each have 48 players already signed to contracts next season as well. Six other teams have 46 or 47 players signed. The closer a club gets to 50, the less roster flexibility they have during the season. When it comes to making trades, claiming players on waivers, or signing college or junior free agents, teams without room can be hamstrung and forced to either pass up on possibilities or make desperation moves to free up roster space. It’s not an ideal situation and could force more than a few teams to make a move or two as the summer wears on.

Tampa Bay is in the worst position of all, as not only do they have just two contract slots available, but they also have two NHL regulars who remain unsigned restricted free agents in need of contracts – Brayden Point and Adam Erne. It’s hard to imagine that the Lightning, who also need to open up considerable cap space, don’t move out a player or two to help clear things up in both regards. One other possible saving grace could be sending 2019 first-round pick Nolan Foote or fellow prospect forward Gabriel Fortier back to their respective junior teams. Even if under contract, 18- and 19-year-old junior players who are still slide-eligible do not count against the 50-contract limit once returned to the junior level. If Foote and/or Fortier don’t crack the Tampa lineup, they would additionally clear up some room. A surefire contender, who also could use some affordable support where they can get it, the Bolts will definitely be a player on the trade and waiver markets this upcoming season, assuming they have the means to do so.

Dallas is in a similarly difficult situation. With just two contract slots available, the Stars need to re-sign (or do something with) defenseman Julius Honka. If the team signs Honka or trades him for another signed player or prospect, they are down to just one open space. Fortunately, unsigned RFA Niklas Hansson is expected to spend the season in Sweden and will not need a contract to become Dallas’ 50th man. Junior forwards Ty Dellandrea and Riley Damiani would also no longer count against the contract limit if sent back to their respective teams, although many in Dallas would like to see Dellandrea push for a spot on the roster.

L.A. has just one unsigned RFA remaining, promising forward Adrian Kempe, so they aren’t in danger to hit 50 at this time. The Kings also have a number of young players under contract who will battle for roster spots, which could force Akil Thomas back to juniors for one more year, removing his contract from the mix. L.A. has been a highly active team on the college free agent market of late and will want some contract room later in the season for potential additions.

Similarly, Ottawa has just Colin White left to sign, so barring further additions are not at risk of hitting 50 contracts. However, the Senators are just narrowly over the league’s salary cap floor, which could prompt them to add another contract so that they don’t have to risk falling below the floor during the year due to a trade. Right now, only Jonathan Gruden is a candidate to go back to junior and remove his contract from limit calculations, so if Ottawa does make another addition, they’ll likely look to make a subtraction or two as well to remain flexible in-season.

The final team at 48 contracts is the Ducks. Fortunately for them, Anaheim has no one left to sign and by all accounts are not looking to make any other moves this off-season. They should be safe, but may look to move a contract just in case the opportunities present themselves to add on during the season.

One team who isn’t at all worried about the contract limit: the New Jersey Devils. New Jersey currently has just 39 players under contract, third least behind Carolina and Winnipeg, but also have just two unsigned RFA’s in need of contracts while the Hurricanes and Jets each have a handful. The Devils project to enter the season with the fewest players under contract, as well the smallest payroll other than Ottawa. That could change though, as the team continues to be included in rumors pertaining to many of the top unsigned UFA’s and top trade targets this summer.

Arbitration Breakdown: Evan Rodrigues

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Salary arbitration season is underway, as hearings were scheduled to begin on July 20th and extend through August 4th. While arbitration awards are very infrequent, with most cases settling beforehand, occasionally a binding decision is handed down by the arbitrator. What goes on behind closed doors before that point? The players, aided by their representation and the NHLPA, and their respective teams, aided by a select group of lawyers, each file at a certain salary over a one- or two-year term. The arbitrator may decide on any salary at or between those two points, based on the arguments in each sides’ written brief and oral presentation. While both sides will have themes to base their arguments on, rather than debate only the merits of the player, the bulk of the conversation in an arbitration hearing instead centers around comparable players. Each side will use a tailored group of statistical ranges, both career and platform year numbers, to show how the player compares to similar recent arbitration-eligible players. All statistics are available to use, but their persuasiveness is the key. The player side will look to show that the player is superior to a group of players at a salary lower than their filing number, while the team side will look to show that player is inferior to a group of players above their filing number. Whoever makes the most convincing argument will land the favorable decision.

Already, two players have gone to hearing and are awaiting an arbitrator’s decision: the Winnipeg Jets’ Andrew Copp and the Washington Capitals’ Christian Djoos. The next possibility is Buffalo Sabres forward Evan Rodrigues, whose hearing is scheduled for Tuesday morning. Rodrigues really only has a season and half of experience as a regular player, but after an outstanding second half on 2017-18, he has established himself as a bona fide NHL talent and has plenty of ammunition ready for an arbitration battle. Here is a closer look at his case:

The Case of Evan Rodrigues

Career Statistics: 154 games played, 21 goals, 41 assists, 62 points, -22 rating
Platform Statistics: 74 games played, 9 goals, 20 assists, 29 points, -7 rating

Filing Numbers: Rodrigues – One year, $2.65MM, Sabres – One year, $1.5MM (midpoint: $2.075MM)

Player Side

Themes:

  • Top-Six Forward: among top six Sabres forwards in points and assists per game and points and assists total in platform season; fourth among Sabres forwards in ATOI in platform season; fourth in total shots and shots per game in platform season (victim of abnormally low shooting percentage)
  • Dependable Player: regular role on power play and penalty kill in platform season; third in face-offs taken in platform season; 59% defensive zone starts in platform season

Potential Comparable Players:

Melker Karlsson (2017)
Career Statistics: 185 games played, 34 goals, 31 assists, 65 points, +9 rating
Platform Statistics: 67 games played, 11 goals, 11 assists, 22 points, +7 rating
Salary: $2MM

  • Player’s argument: Rodrigues has better career points per game; Rodrigues has better points per game in platform season; Rodrigues is a center – deserves a premium
  • Team’s counter: Karlsson is better career goal scorer; Karlsson did not have same opportunity in platform season – ATOI, power play ATOI, line mate talent; Karlsson is better defensive player – plus/minus, hits, blocked shots, shorthanded ATOI

Alex Iafallo (2019)
Career Statistics: 157 games played, 24 goals, 34 assists, 58 points, -7 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games played, 15 goals, 18 assists, 33 points, -17 rating
Salary: $2.425MM

  • Player’s argument: very similar offensive totals and per game numbers in platform season and career (over very similar NHL experience); Rodrigues with slightly better career points per game in less ATOI career; Rodrigues is a center – deserves a premium
  • Team’s counter: Iafallo has two full seasons of NHL experience and top-six minutes; Iafallo has better goal scoring numbers in platform season and career; Iafallo is more physical player

Team Side

Themes:

  • Not a Top-Six Forward: offensive numbers do not match up with top-six production league wide – role is product of thin Sabres roster last season; outside top six Sabres forwards in goal scoring, power plat ATOI
  • Limited Upside: regression in platform season – .52 points per game to .39 points per game; not a goal scorer – low career goal totals, shooting percentage; poor face-off numbers; limited experience at advanced age

Potential Comparable Players:

Bryan Rust (2018)
Career Statistics: 181 games, 33 goals, 46 assists, 79 points, +13 rating
Platform Statistics: 69 games, 13 goals, 25 assists, 38 points, +11 rating
Salary: $3.5MM

  • Team’s argument: Rust has better career offensive totals an per game numbers; Rust has far better offensive totals and per game numbers in platform season; Rust is better defensive player – plus/minus, hits, blocked shots, shorthanded ATOI; Rust has considerable postseason experience, production, and achievement
  • Player’s counter: Rust’s AAV is considerably higher than midpoint; Rodrigues’ career-high games played is higher than Rust’s – more dependable player; Rodrigues is a center – deserves a premium

J.T. Compher (2019)
Career Statistics:  156 games played, 32 goals, 28 assists, 60 points, -37 rating
Platform Statistics: 66 games played, 16 goals, 16 assists, 32 points, -7 rating
Salary: $3.5MM

  • Team’s argument: Compher had far better per game offensive numbers in platform season; Compher has better career goal-scoring numbers; Compher is better defensive player – hits, blocked shots, face-off success, shorthanded ATOI; Compher is considerably younger
  • Player’s counter: very similar career offensive totals and per game numbers

Prediction

This is not an exhaustive list of possible comparable players, but based on the player side and team side filing numbers and the resulting midpoint, Rodrigues has a pretty good chance in this case. Although Rodrigues’ numbers may very well be a product of a top-six role that he will no longer have moving forward, the Sabres can’t show that in a hearing and thus must deal with the fact that they needed him in that capacity over the last season and a half. There is a strong argument to be made that each of these comparable players is better than Rodrigues, but the fact that their cap numbers are at or above the midpoint, Rust and Compher substantially so, is a major benefit to the player side. Even if Buffalo can hammer home the point that Rust and Compher are much better players with far superior platform seasons, they will likely struggle to drive the price too far past Iafallo’s $2.425MM. He and Rodrigues are incredibly similar. Unless the Sabres get really creative with other comparable players, expect a potential decision to land in that range, between $2.3-2.5MM.

Mirco Mueller Avoids Arbitration

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The New Jersey Devils have avoided an arbitration hearing with Mirco Mueller, agreeing to terms on a one-year deal instead. The contract will carry a salary of $1.4MM, and render a hearing date of July 28th unnecessary.

Mueller, 24, will still be a restricted free agent at the end of the deal and could file for salary arbitration again in 2020. He may have an even better case then if he is given the kind of opportunity he finally received last season. After being pulled up and down for years between the AHL and NHL with the San Jose Sharks, Mueller finally found himself on the move to a new organization in the summer of 2017. That didn’t change his situation very much though, as he played just 28 games for the Devils in his first season with the club. That changed in 2018-19 however, as the Swiss defenseman set career highs in games played (53), assists (10) and points (11) while getting a good amount of ice time.

There isn’t a lot of offensive upside in the 2013 first round pick, but Mueller is a capable defender that can handle himself against good players and contribute short-handed. That’s a valuable player for a team that now has several offensive weapons on the blue line in the form of P.K. Subban, Damon Severson and Will Butcher. The question will be if Mueller can get himself into the lineup on a regular basis with the addition of Subban to the group pushing everyone down a peg. Butcher is actually still a restricted free agent and has an arbitration hearing of his own scheduled for August 2nd.

While this deal gives Mueller some security for next season, it will be interesting to see if he earns himself another qualifying offer in 2020. The Devils have top prospect Ty Smith who will likely be pushing for a roster spot at some point, plus cap concerns of their own coming down the pipe. Though the team has tons of room right now, extensions for Taylor Hall, Sami Vatanen, Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt—who are all scheduled for free agency next summer—could eat up quite a huge chunk of money. If he can establish himself as an everyday option on the third pairing there should be room for him on the team, but arbitration for a part-time player may be too pricey.

Ben Hutton Drawing “Strong Interest” As Offseason Continues

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The free agent period is now more than three weeks old and several interesting names remain unsigned. While Jake Gardiner is the top defenseman left on the open market, Ben Hutton is another option that would be much cheaper for a team closer to the cap. That might be why Luke Fox of Sportsnet reports that there is “strong interest from multiple teams” in Hutton, even at this later stage of free agency.

Hutton, 26, actually ranked 38th on our list of the Top 50 UFAs this year, thanks almost entirely to the huge role that he has played on the Vancouver Canucks the last several years. While he hasn’t shown very well in advanced statistics, the left-handed defenseman has averaged over 20 minutes a night through his four-year career including a whopping 22:21 per game in 2018-19. Hutton registered 20 points in 69 games last season with the Canucks and has 70 in his career, but is also a -75 as he and the rest of the team haven’t had much success during that time.

The Canucks decided not to qualify Hutton as a restricted free agent, an offer that would have been worth $2.8MM. That would have also allowed him to elect salary arbitration for an even bigger raise, something that Vancouver didn’t want to pay as they had their eyes set on bigger prizes. The team brought in Tyler Myers on one of the biggest deals in free agents at five-years, $30MM and also signed Jordie Benn and Oscar Fantenberg to round out their depth chart. Those three added to a group that is also bringing Quinn Hughes on for a full season didn’t have room for Hutton, especially at a relatively high salary.

But for another team, he may be the kind of player that can play a solid depth role or become perfect trade bait. A rebuilding club could continue to give him big minutes and hope his production improves even further, only to flip him down the road when teams are needy for playoff depth. Or, given his relative youth, if someone believes he can be a key player for them bring him in for a reasonable price now that the market frenzy has died down. Either way, the interest in Hutton isn’t surprising even if he has had to wait a few weeks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Minor Transactions: 07/22/19

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As July marches on and we get into arbitration hearings and contract holdouts, teams continue to fill our their organizational depth charts. Here are some minor moves from around the league. We’ll keep updating as more come in:

  • Erik Condra has signed with the Colorado Eagles, giving the team another veteran forward for what looks like a Calder Cup run. Condra has played 372 NHL games over a long career, and put up 54 points last season for the Texas Stars of the AHL. The 32-year old settled for an AHL contract, meaning he can’t be called up to the Avalanche without first clearing waivers and signing an NHL deal.

Snapshots: Gusev, Dotchin, Prospects

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The Vegas Golden Knights still haven’t come to an agreement with Nikita Gusev, but there is coming a time when they’ll need to make a final decision on the restricted free agent. Gusev’s Russian agent Yuriy Nikolayev spoke to Championat and explained (via Google translate) that there is a “certain deadline” when they will turn to negotiate with SKA St. Petersburg, who currently own his rights in the KHL.

Gusev signed his entry-level contract with the Golden Knights just a few months ago and burned through it without actually ever playing a game for the team. The team issued him a qualifying offer as an RFA, but haven’t yet been able to come to an agreement on a new contract. The only bit of leverage Gusev really has in this position is a possible return to the KHL, as he was not eligible for arbitration and cannot sign an offer sheet.

  • According to Joe Smith of The Athletic, the Tampa Bay Lightning have reached a settlement with Jake Dotchin on the grievance he filed after seeing his contract terminated last fall. Dotchin allegedly showed up to training camp out of shape, causing the Lightning to place him on unconditional waivers and cut ties with him. He eventually signed with the Anaheim Ducks and played 20 games in the NHL last season, but had filed a grievance through the NHLPA for his lost salary. Smith reports that the two sides settled without having to go to an arbitration, which potentially could have set a precedent for other cases in the future. The details have not been disclosed.
  • Scott Wheeler of The Athletic (subscription required) has released his top-50 drafted prospect list, and recent first overall selection Jack Hughes comes in on top. The list includes 11 others from the 2019 draft, but is also led by names like Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar who made their NHL debuts at the end of last season. Notably the Colorado Avalanche and New York Rangers each have two players in the top-10, giving them plenty of hope for the future—and the present, if Makar and Kaapo Kakko have anything to say about it.

Zach Aston-Reese Re-Signs With Pittsburgh Penguins

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The Pittsburgh Penguins won’t need to wait on an arbitrator’s decision with regards to Zach Aston-Reese. The young forward has re-signed with the team, inking a two-year contract that will carry an average annual value of $1MM. Aston-Reese was scheduled for an arbitration hearing today. GM Jim Rutherford released a short statement on the signing:

Zach is a responsible player who plays a solid two-way game. He has a heavy style of play that is especially effective on the forecheck and penalty kill.

The deal leaves the 24-year old Aston-Reese a restricted free agent again in 2021, as long as he participates in 21 more NHL games before then. That seems extremely likely, as the former Northeastern University standout has developed into a nice depth option for the team that can play in several different situations. Signing with the Penguins after a 63-point senior season at Northeastern, the undrafted Aston-Reese made a great impression on the organization by recording eight points in ten games with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins. He made his NHL debut the following season, and ended up playing 43 regular season games (and four playoff contests) with the team in 2018-19.

One thing that stood out in Aston-Reese’s senior season at Northeastern was his net-front ability, as he was routinely able to find loose pucks in tight and put them in the back of the net. That same nose around the net has actually led to 12 goals in 59 NHL games, a solid rate for a young player with varying levels of opportunity. He has averaged just over 13 minutes a night over those games, but played as much as 18:30 and as little as 8:00 depending on where he’s slotted into the lineup.

That kind of versatility—Aston-Reese has lined up beside everyone from Sidney Crosby to Matt Cullen at different times—makes him a nice piece for the Penguins as they try to find a little different roster construction heading into 2019-20. With Phil Kessel gone and several new faces on board, it’s not clear at all how the lines will shake out at this point. At the very worst, Aston-Reese is likely ticketed for a depth role on the NHL roster this season, given he would need to clear waivers to be sent to the AHL.

With Marcus Pettersson still to sign however, the Penguins now project to be just over the $81.5MM cap ceiling for next season. Though that could be dealt with by carrying fewer than 23 players at the start of the year, it seems much more likely that Rutherford will find another trade to clear some room over the next few months. If that deal sends a forward out of town, the opportunity for Aston-Reese should only increase.

Florida Panthers Agree To Terms With Ian McCoshen

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The Florida Panthers are getting their restricted free agent business done today, as after avoiding arbitration with MacKenzie Weegar the team has agreed to terms with Ian McCoshen. McCoshen will sign a one-year, two-way contract for 2019-20, though the exact financials have not been released yet.

McCoshen, 23, still hasn’t had quite the impact at the NHL level that the Panthers were hoping for when they made him the 31st overall pick in 2013. After three years at Boston College the 6’3″ defenseman was expected to take a very short amount of time in the minor leagues before being ready to step into an NHL role, but that hasn’t worked out quite as planned. Now three seasons into his pro career, McCoshen has only suited up 60 times with the Panthers and is by no means guaranteed a role at that level in 2019-20.

Never a huge offensive threat, McCoshen was instead heralded for his tight gaps on defense and ability to engage physically when necessary. In extremely limited ice time, he has just seven points in those 60 games and has posted very poor possession statistics. In order to receive any more opportunity this season he will have to battle against players like Weegar and Josh Brown in training camp and show there is another level to his performance.

Still, it’s not time yet to give up on the young defenseman nor is it time to pencil him into the Springfield Thunderbirds roster to start the year. No longer waiver-exempt, the team might have to keep him in the NHL for a while as another team could easily find him attractive enough to put in a claim if he were to be exposed at the end of training camp. While the Panthers are now looking to compete and will be trying to trim the fat from their roster, a rebuilding club could certainly give McCoshen a chance as a bottom-pairing option to see what he can develop into. With just nine forwards signed to one-way contracts, the Panthers will have some flexibility at the start of the year if they want to keep all eight defensemen on the roster.

Michal Neuvirth Expected To Attend Toronto Maple Leafs Camp

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According to a report from iSport in the Czech Republic, veteran goaltender Michal Neuvirth will sign a professional tryout with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Neuvirth is an unrestricted free agent after his contract with the Philadelphia Flyers expired, and would be battling with other goaltenders like Garret Sparks and Michael Hutchinson who are both already signed to one-way contracts.

Neuvirth, 31, has a long history in the NHL but not all of it has been successful. Originally selected 34th overall by the Washington Capitals—quite a high pick for a goaltender—he quickly made it to their NHL squad and played parts of six seasons. In Washington he had a .910 save percentage and even started nine games during their playoff run in 2011. Neuvirth has suited up for the New York Islanders and Buffalo Sabres in addition to Washington and Philadelphia, and has 257 games under his belt over an 11-year career.

That experience may not mean anything if he can’t show a substantial upgrade over Sparks and Hutchinson. The two backups will both require waivers to be sent down to the minor leagues, leaving Toronto in the same vulnerable situation they found themselves in last fall. Deciding to keep the younger Sparks, Toronto placed both Curtis McElhinney and Calvin Pickard on waivers and when both were claimed the team suddenly had no goaltending depth. They eventually traded for Hutchinson, while Sparks had an up-and-down season as Frederik Andersen’s primary backup. That situation could potentially happen again, though it is unclear at this point how many teams will be looking for goaltending at the end of camp.

Five Key Stories: 7/15/19 – 7/21/19

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Although the summer crawl is in full effect, there were still some notable headlines around the league over the past seven days.  Those are highlighted here in our top stories of the week.

Colorado Signings: The Avalanche locked up a pair of their restricted free agents.  Center J.T. Compher was rewarded for the best season of his young career as he signed a four-year, $14MM contract, effectively bypassing a bridge deal.  However, in doing so, he’s setting himself up to hit the open market four years from now at the age of 28.  Meanwhile, offseason acquisition Andre Burakovsky signed a one-year, $3.25MM deal, the amount of his qualifying offer.  Colorado certainly believes he has potential considering they dealt a pair of draft picks for him but they clearly want to see how he fits in with them before committing on a longer-term pact.  The winger will be a restricted free agent with arbitration rights again next summer.

Francis To Seattle: While Seattle won’t be entering their inaugural season for two more years, they have found the person that will lead them into the NHL as they have hired former Carolina GM Ron Francis as their first general manager in franchise history.  While expectations will certainly be high considering how Vegas fared in their first year, this decision suggests that the yet-to-be-named franchise will be taking a different approach.  Francis was known for his patience during his tenure with the Hurricanes and tried to build things up slowly.  It seems reasonable to believe that he’ll take a similar approach this time around.

Neal-Lucic Trade: Milan Lucic had been part of trade speculation for two years.  James Neal didn’t even get through his first year in Calgary before being suggested as trade fodder.  However, with both players having four years left on overpriced contracts, there wasn’t much of a viable trade market for them.  Accordingly, the Oilers and Flames decided to swap those bad deals with Edmonton retaining $750K per season of Lucic’s salary plus potentially giving up a conditional 2020 third-round pick if Neal scores at least 21 goals next season and scores at least ten more goals than Lucic.  By making the trade, the Flames add some grit up front with Lucic though it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to play a bigger role than he had with the Oilers.  Meanwhile, Neal figures to get a look in a more prominent spot than he had with Calgary.  Edmonton’s depth on the wing is somewhat shallow so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him deployed in a top-six role when the puck drops on the regular season in October.

Seven Years For Trouba: After being traded to the Rangers, the expectation was that defenseman Jacob Trouba would quickly sign a long-term deal, something he wasn’t willing to do with Winnipeg.  While it took a little longer than expected, a deal was eventually reached as he inked a seven-year, $56MM deal.  The contract contains a no-move clause in years two through five (he’s not eligible in the first season) and a partial no-trade clause in the final two seasons.  While Trouba didn’t spend much time on the top pairing with the Jets, he’ll get the opportunity to serve as New York’s top defender which should give him the chance to build on his career-best 50 points last season.

Senators-Blackhawks Swap: Artem Anisimov had been in trade speculation for the last couple of seasons and once his $2MM signing bonus was paid at the midway point of July, his value was expected to go up.  Not surprisingly, a trade was agreed on shortly after the bonus was paid as the Senators acquired the center in exchange for forward Zack Smith.  Ottawa adds an offensive upgrade for a relatively low cost on two fronts.  Smith cleared waivers earlier in the season and Anisimov is only owed $5MM in total money over the final two years of his deal despite a $4.55MM AAV.  Meanwhile, Smith adds some grit to Chicago’s bottom six, something GM Stan Bowman has clearly identified as a need this summer.  The move also frees up $1.3MM in cap space in each of the next two seasons.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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