Salary arbitration season is underway, as hearings were scheduled to begin on July 20th and extend through August 4th. While arbitration awards are very infrequent, with most cases settling beforehand, occasionally a binding decision is handed down by the arbitrator. What goes on behind closed doors before that point? The players, aided by their representation and the NHLPA, and their respective teams, aided by a select group of lawyers, each file at a certain salary over a one- or two-year term. The arbitrator may decide on any salary at or between those two points, based on the arguments in each sides’ written brief and oral presentation. While both sides will have themes to base their arguments on, rather than debate only the merits of the player, the bulk of the conversation in an arbitration hearing instead centers around comparable players. Each side will use a tailored group of statistical ranges, both career and platform year numbers, to show how the player compares to similar recent arbitration-eligible players. All statistics are available to use, but their persuasiveness is the key. The player side will look to show that the player is superior to a group of players at a salary lower than their filing number, while the team side will look to show that player is inferior to a group of players above their filing number. Whoever makes the most convincing argument will land the favorable decision.
Already, two players have gone to hearing and are awaiting an arbitrator’s decision: the Winnipeg Jets’ Andrew Copp and the Washington Capitals’ Christian Djoos. The next possibility is Buffalo Sabres forward Evan Rodrigues, whose hearing is scheduled for Tuesday morning. Rodrigues really only has a season and half of experience as a regular player, but after an outstanding second half on 2017-18, he has established himself as a bona fide NHL talent and has plenty of ammunition ready for an arbitration battle. Here is a closer look at his case:
The Case of Evan Rodrigues
Career Statistics: 154 games played, 21 goals, 41 assists, 62 points, -22 rating
Platform Statistics: 74 games played, 9 goals, 20 assists, 29 points, -7 rating
Filing Numbers: Rodrigues – One year, $2.65MM, Sabres – One year, $1.5MM (midpoint: $2.075MM)
Player Side
Themes:
- Top-Six Forward: among top six Sabres forwards in points and assists per game and points and assists total in platform season; fourth among Sabres forwards in ATOI in platform season; fourth in total shots and shots per game in platform season (victim of abnormally low shooting percentage)
- Dependable Player: regular role on power play and penalty kill in platform season; third in face-offs taken in platform season; 59% defensive zone starts in platform season
Potential Comparable Players:
Melker Karlsson (2017)
Career Statistics: 185 games played, 34 goals, 31 assists, 65 points, +9 rating
Platform Statistics: 67 games played, 11 goals, 11 assists, 22 points, +7 rating
Salary: $2MM
- Player’s argument: Rodrigues has better career points per game; Rodrigues has better points per game in platform season; Rodrigues is a center – deserves a premium
- Team’s counter: Karlsson is better career goal scorer; Karlsson did not have same opportunity in platform season – ATOI, power play ATOI, line mate talent; Karlsson is better defensive player – plus/minus, hits, blocked shots, shorthanded ATOI
Alex Iafallo (2019)
Career Statistics: 157 games played, 24 goals, 34 assists, 58 points, -7 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games played, 15 goals, 18 assists, 33 points, -17 rating
Salary: $2.425MM
- Player’s argument: very similar offensive totals and per game numbers in platform season and career (over very similar NHL experience); Rodrigues with slightly better career points per game in less ATOI career; Rodrigues is a center – deserves a premium
- Team’s counter: Iafallo has two full seasons of NHL experience and top-six minutes; Iafallo has better goal scoring numbers in platform season and career; Iafallo is more physical player
Team Side
Themes:
- Not a Top-Six Forward: offensive numbers do not match up with top-six production league wide – role is product of thin Sabres roster last season; outside top six Sabres forwards in goal scoring, power plat ATOI
- Limited Upside: regression in platform season – .52 points per game to .39 points per game; not a goal scorer – low career goal totals, shooting percentage; poor face-off numbers; limited experience at advanced age
Potential Comparable Players:
Bryan Rust (2018)
Career Statistics: 181 games, 33 goals, 46 assists, 79 points, +13 rating
Platform Statistics: 69 games, 13 goals, 25 assists, 38 points, +11 rating
Salary: $3.5MM
- Team’s argument: Rust has better career offensive totals an per game numbers; Rust has far better offensive totals and per game numbers in platform season; Rust is better defensive player – plus/minus, hits, blocked shots, shorthanded ATOI; Rust has considerable postseason experience, production, and achievement
- Player’s counter: Rust’s AAV is considerably higher than midpoint; Rodrigues’ career-high games played is higher than Rust’s – more dependable player; Rodrigues is a center – deserves a premium
J.T. Compher (2019)
Career Statistics: 156 games played, 32 goals, 28 assists, 60 points, -37 rating
Platform Statistics: 66 games played, 16 goals, 16 assists, 32 points, -7 rating
Salary: $3.5MM
- Team’s argument: Compher had far better per game offensive numbers in platform season; Compher has better career goal-scoring numbers; Compher is better defensive player – hits, blocked shots, face-off success, shorthanded ATOI; Compher is considerably younger
- Player’s counter: very similar career offensive totals and per game numbers
Prediction
This is not an exhaustive list of possible comparable players, but based on the player side and team side filing numbers and the resulting midpoint, Rodrigues has a pretty good chance in this case. Although Rodrigues’ numbers may very well be a product of a top-six role that he will no longer have moving forward, the Sabres can’t show that in a hearing and thus must deal with the fact that they needed him in that capacity over the last season and a half. There is a strong argument to be made that each of these comparable players is better than Rodrigues, but the fact that their cap numbers are at or above the midpoint, Rust and Compher substantially so, is a major benefit to the player side. Even if Buffalo can hammer home the point that Rust and Compher are much better players with far superior platform seasons, they will likely struggle to drive the price too far past Iafallo’s $2.425MM. He and Rodrigues are incredibly similar. Unless the Sabres get really creative with other comparable players, expect a potential decision to land in that range, between $2.3-2.5MM.