Archives for February 2018

Predators Pick Up AHL’s McNeill In Trade With Stars

February 3, 2018 at 3:10 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

The Nashville Predators keep finding themselves in the news. After announcing that former captain Mike Fisher was coming out of retirement and would sign in the coming weeks with the team, the Predators have now acquired another center via trade, albeit a minor one, as they have traded minor league defenseman Andrew O’Brien to the Dallas Stars in exchange for center Mark McNeill, according to the Dallas Stars.

Obviously added as a depth forward for the AHL’s Milwaukee Admirals, McNeill was once considered a top prospect of the Chicago Blackhawks after being drafted in the first round of the 2011 draft. Considered a strong possibility to make the proud franchise immediately after he was drafted, he didn’t make the team and found himself languishing in the AHL for years, never getting an opportunity to show what he could do in the NHL. He only played one game with Chicago before the Blackhawks moved him at the trade last year to Dallas in exchange for defenseman Johnny Oduya. He did make one appearance last year in Dallas, but spent most of the last year and all of this year with the Texas Stars. He is considered to have shooting ability, solid speed and good defensive skills, but has always struggled with consistency. He has played in 312 games in his AHL career so far. This year, the 24-year-old has played just 18 for the Texas Stars and has five goals and an assist.

As for O’Brien, the 24-year-old defenseman has also played many years in the AHL, never having been promoted to the NHL. The blueliner has played 188 career AHL games, but in just 21 games this season. He has put up three assists and 27 penalty minutes with the Milwaukee Admirals. He will report to the Texas Stars.

Super Bowl Preview: NHL Edition

February 3, 2018 at 2:17 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 1 Comment

In the biggest sporting event of the year tomorrow, the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles will square off in Super Bowl LII in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Patriots are five-time Super Bowl winners, including two of the past three, while the Eagles are looking for their first ever title in the Super Bowl era. The teams and their histories could not be more different. The same cannot be said for their NHL counterparts, the Boston Bruins and Philadelphia Flyers, who have been rivals from as far back as when they were called the Boston Patriots in the AFL. So, while everyone else debates the ins and outs of the big game tomorrow, let’s take a look at the likely winner through the lens of the Pats’ and Eagles’ hockey-playing neighbors:

Scoring Offense – Advantage: Boston

When it comes to scoring, the Bruins are as dangerous as the Patriots. Boston has 160 goals for on the year, 8th in the league, but in only 49 games, giving them the 5th-best 3.27 goals per game rate. Led by Brad Marchand, who’s scoring .55 goals per game on his own this season, and his line mates Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak, who make up the league’s most dangerous line, the Bruins have great offensive potential. The Flyers meanwhile are just 18th in the league in scoring, with 147 goals, and putting up only 2.88 goals per game. However, Jakub Voracek and Claude Giroux are the two highest scoring players in the match-up, so don’t underestimate Philadelphia’s offensive potential.

Scoring Defense – Advantage: Boston

There’s no better team in the league at preventing goals than the Bruins, who are number one in goals against (120) and goals against per game (2.45). With Tuukka Rask playing Vezina-level hockey and Marchand, Bergeron, and 40-year-old Zdeno Chara (channeling his inner Tom Brady) among the top ten in the league in plus/minus, the Bruins are a force to reckon with on defense. The Flyers have struggled on defense in 2017-18, allowing 150 goals, tied for 19th in goals against. While the defense has been leaky at times, much of the fault lies with the underwhelming goalie duo of Brian Elliott and Michal Neuvirth.

Passing Offense – Advantage: Boston

Passing will be a vital factor in the big game, and the Bruins hold a slight edge. The Bruins have 271 assists on the year compared to the Flyers’ 264. While Voracek is undoubtedly the best passer in the contest, with 50 assists already on the year, Boston’s overall puck movement game is superior, due in no small part to sleek passers on the blue line in Charlie McAvoy and Torey Krug, and several of the best possession players in the league, including the top Corsi player so far in 2017-18, rookie rearguard Matt Grzelcyk.

Turnovers – Advantage: Boston

Turnovers can make or break a game and while both teams are in the red in turnover margin, the totals are not even close. The Bruins have recorded 442 takeaways so far this season, among the best in the league. However, they do give up the puck a fair amount with 465 recorded giveaways, producing a turnover margin of -23. Fortunately for Boston, the Flyers have given up the puck 462 times themselves, but have had no luck at all in taking it back, with only 302 recorded takeaways. That produces an ugly turnover margin of -160 and another big advantage for Boston.

Special Teams – Advantage: Boston

The Bruins’ 7th-ranked power play (21.71%) and 5th-ranked penalty kill (83.33%) make them one of, if not the best special teams squad in the NHL. They capitalize on the opposition’s penalties, but don’t let their own penalties cost them. That will be especially helpful against Philadelphia, who takes fewer penalties per game than Boston and is just behind the B’s in power play efficiency; their 21.39% success rate is good enough for 8th. However, Philly has struggled greatly short-handed, with the league’s third-worst penalty kill (73.89%).

Super Bowl Prediction: New England in a landslide

It’s been a few years since the Bruins were playing at a level anywhere near the dynastic Patriots, but in 2017-18 they are right there. Compared to the Flyers in all the important (and possible to compare) football statistics, it’s not even close. If the Patriots channel the Bruins, they should roll over the Eagles like they’ve rolled over the NFL for close to 20 years. One final note: the Pats have struggled to score early and have had to come from behind in each of their last two Super Bowl wins and even their AFC Championship win two weeks ago – the Bruins have the second-best points percentage in the NHL this season when allowing the first goal. It all lines up.

The Odds Of Drafting A Superstar And The 2018 NHL Draft

February 3, 2018 at 12:34 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 2 Comments

Earlier this week, The Athletic’s Tyler Dellow went to work trying to figure out how the Ottawa Senators could maximize their trade return (subscription required) for Erik Karlsson, should the team decide to move the all-world defenseman prior to the NHL Trade Deadline on February 26th or at least before the 2018 NHL Entry Draft on June 22nd. Dellow surmised that in order to get anywhere near a fair return for Karlsson, Ottawa would need to acquire draft picks that could give them the best chance of finding a “franchise cornerstone” to replace him. The best-case-scenario for the Sens would obviously be to land the #1 overall pick in the lottery and the opportunity to draft the consensus top pick, Karlsson clone Rasmus Dahlin – a scenario that would not even require moving Karlsson. However, with the Arizona Coyotes and Buffalo Sabres likely having better lottery odds and another 12 teams having a chance at the top pick as well, its unlikely that the Senators choose first overall. Dahlin’s generational talent also means the lucky team that lands #1 isn’t moving it, even for Karlsson. So what then is the chance of finding a superstar in the draft? Dellow’s analysis produced these results:

First pick: 90 percent,
Second pick: 60 percent
Third or Fourth pick: 15 percent
Picks 5-20: 5 percent
Picks 21-30: 2 percent
Picks 31-60: 1 percent
Picks 61+: .07 percent

While there is a considerable drop-off from the first pick to the second and the second to the third, it’s clear that picks #2 and #3 still hold immense value. Dellow goes on to describe the infrequency with which those picks are moved, citing Alexei Yashin-for-Jason Spezza and the drafting of Henrik and Daniel Sedin are rare recent examples. Dellow’s thesis continues that the current Vancouver Canucks could be a rare team willing to part with a high pick, if it meant landing Karlsson.

However what if Karlsson isn’t traded by the Draft – a situation that is far more likely than the media would make it out to be – would the normally untouchable top three picks be back off the table? Obviously, the results of the draft lottery matter immensely and the #1 pick will surely not be moved this year. More likely than not, #2 is going nowhere as well. Yet, the status of the 2018 draft class leads to much intrigue over the #3 pick, which historically has a 15% chance of landing a superstar. Unlike past years, there is no consensus second-best player in 2018. In some order, Nico Hischier and Nolan Patrick were going 1-2 in 2017, as were Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine in 2016, and no one was going right behind Connor McDavid other than Jack Eichel in 2015. This year’s crop offers a situation unlike the last few seasons, wherein Dahlin is guaranteed to go first overall – and will be off the draft board of everyone but the lottery winner before the draft even begins – but the following picks are unpredictable. At #2, it could be Russian sniper Andrei Svechnikov, sleek Czech forward Filip Zadina, big, skilled Americans Brady Tkachuk or Oliver Wahlstrom, or a D-needy team with the second pick could even go off the board for a defenseman.

The decision on the second overall pick in 2018 will undeniably result in the top player on many teams’ board being selected, but the top player on many other teams’ board falling to #3. If that team at third overall was hoping to take the player selected at #2, now things could get interesting. According to Dellow’s results, the team at #3 has now lost a 45% chance of finding their next franchise player, but could trade out of the pick and still end up with one (or more) top 20 pick(s), each with a 5% chance of becoming a star, as well as possibly an established pick or player. If you put trust into a model like Dellow’s, a deal like this becomes much more about math and odds than simply taking the risk of trading back out of disappointment with the draft order.

Going back to the Karlsson-to-Vancouver hypothetical, imagine that the Canucks land the #3 overall pick while the Senators have a pick in the 5-20 range, either by the lottery or an additional pick from an upcoming trade. Vancouver hypothetically wanted Zadina, who went #2, while the top player on Ottawa’s board was Tkachuk (or maybe a defenseman like Adam Boqvist). Vancouver could, as Dellow proposes, offer the Sens the third pick – and a 15% chance at a star – and a prospect like Olli Juolevi, the fifth overall pick in 2016 – who holds a 5% chance of becoming a star himself – as part of a larger package for Karlsson and a first. Ottawa nets a 20% chance of adding a cornerstone player, including at least one potential replacement on the blue line, and Vancouver holds onto a 5% chance of finding a star of their own with the later first rounder. The 10% loss for Vancouver is more than made up by the gain of a bona fide star in Karlsson. Could a deal like this happen? For sure. Will it? Probably not, but Dellow’s analysis of draft pick values and a seemingly volatile draft board in 2018 helps to illuminate the possibilities of some fascinating, unprecedented deals early on at the 2018 Draft.

Snapshots: Flyers, Ryan, Davidson, Oshie

February 3, 2018 at 10:56 am CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

With the Metropolitan Division being as tight as it is (five points separate third place from last place), decisions on whether the teams in that bottleneck will buy or sell are still likely a couple of weeks away. Dave Isaac of the Courier-Post suggests that if the Flyers were to be buyers, they will be more likely going after depth players such as a bottom-six forward or a third pairing defender that can kill penalties instead of pursuing the more prominent players available.

That approach would make sense considering how patient Philly GM Ron Hextall has been about building the team slowly but steadily. They certainly have a surplus of young talent to deal from if they want to but since the Flyers aren’t really a single player or two away from becoming top-flight contenders, they’re arguably better off waiting a little longer before making that bigger splash.

Elsewhere around the league:

Bobby Ryan’s hand troubles have surfaced yet again. The Senators winger has been ruled out for the weekend with a hand injury and head coach Guy Boucher told reporters, including Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch, that he is doubtful to play next week as well. This is Ryan’s fourth different hand injury already this season and his eighth since 2014-15. When he has been healthy, the veteran has been relatively productive with 20 points (7-13-20) in 39 games so far this season.
Although he has played a sparing role since rejoining the Oilers, defenseman Brandon Davidson is worthy of keeping around beyond this season, argues David Staples of the Edmonton Journal. The 26-year-old is owed a qualifying offer of $1.55MM this offseason and with Edmonton expected to be a cap-spending team with center Connor McDavid’s new $12.5MM per year kicking in, that qualifying offer amount may be too much of a luxury for a role player.
The Department of Player Safety announced (Twitter link) that Capitals winger T.J. Oshie has been fined $5K for a cross-check against Penguins defenseman Kris Letang last night. The fine is the maximum allowable in the CBA.

West Notes: Reilly, Sharks, Sedins

February 3, 2018 at 8:37 am CDT | by Brian La Rose 3 Comments

The Wild have given defenseman Mike Reilly’s agent (Pat Brisson) permission to talk to other teams about a trade, reports Michael Russo of The Athletic (subscription required). He notes that this permission may have been granted as much as two months ago although GM Chuck Fletcher declined to comment. For his part, Reilly confirmed that he has not asked for a deal.

It has been a bit of a rough season for the 24-year-old. He was shuttled back and forth between the NHL and the AHL in the early going as Minnesota looked to free up a bit of salary cap space. He has since become waiver-eligible but even then, he has had difficulty cracking the top six on the Wild’s back end and his game last night was his first since January 10th. With just eight points (all assists) in 32 games this season, Reilly likely wouldn’t yield much of a return but he’s certainly someone who could benefit from a change of scenery.

Trade Candidate: Petr Mrazek

February 2, 2018 at 8:55 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 2 Comments

With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.

After a particularly rough 2016-17 season, the Red Wings were hoping that goaltender Petr Mrazek would bounce back to the level of play from the year before that, one that saw him become a quality NHL starter. That hasn’t happened and as a result, he has been involved in trade speculation nearly all season long and those talks should only intensify over the next three weeks leading up to deadline day.

Contract

Mrazek is in the final year of a two-year, $8MM deal. He is due a qualifying offer of $4.15MM (his current salary) in June.

2017-18

The start of the season saw the 25-year-old put up even worse numbers than he did last season, notching a GAA of 3.64 with a .892 SV% through the first three months of the year and as a result, he found himself squarely behind Jimmy Howard on the pecking order.

Things started to turn for him in January, however. Following a loss to the Lightning where he allowed five goals, Mrazek allowed just six goals total in his last six appearances (five starts) and has started to shoulder more of the workload.

Despite that, there is still a legitimate question about whether he will have done enough to warrant receiving a qualifying offer in the summer. As a result, there’s a case to be made that he will not only to be looking to reclaim the starting job down the stretch but that he will be also trying to showcase himself for prospective suitors if he is let go.

Season Stats

18 GP, 7-5-2 record, 2.74 GAA, .914 SV%, 3 SO

Potential Suitors

Unlike forwards or defensemen, the trade market for goaltenders is a lot more limited but there are still some potential fits. The Islanders have had their own share of goalie woes this season and are tumbling down the Metropolitan Division as a result. They could conceivably look at Mrazek’s hot streak and view him as a short-term upgrade on their current tandem. I also wouldn’t rule out Pittsburgh depending on what else the Penguins are (or aren’t) able to do as they may want to have some experienced insurance behind Matt Murray.

In the West, Mrazek could represent a fallback option if the Sharks decide to part with their potential top trade chip in netminder Aaron Dell to add help up front before the deadline. They have the cap room to take his contract on without any concern. Chicago has less of a need now that Corey Crawford appears likely to return but if the Red Wings are willing to retain on his contract, he could still represent an upgrade as their backup if the Blackhawks are looking to make a playoff push.

Likelihood Of A Trade

This will come down to how much GM Ken Holland is looking for in a return. If the asking price is around where it was believed to be earlier in the season (a mid-round draft pick) with them being willing to retain on his contract if necessary, there is a decent chance that he will move despite there being a pretty limited goalie market overall. However, if they look to leverage his current stretch of games into a higher return, that may be enough to turn teams looking for depth between the pipes in other directions.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

East Notes: Nyquist, Tatar, Blue Jackets, Jerabek

February 2, 2018 at 7:46 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

While Detroit’s rental players have garnered the most attention in trade speculation, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported in an appearance on 630 CHED (audio link) that wingers Tomas Tatar and Gustav Nyquist are players that the Red Wings have tried to move at times for a couple of years now and that they may be looking at trying to deal them once again. Both players have underachieved considerably this season but have each put up at least 43 points in the past three years and that track record might be of interest to some teams. Both are signed for beyond this season with Nyquist having one more year left at $4.75MM while Tatar has three more years at $5.3MM which will make him considerably tougher to deal. While Detroit is believed to be willing to retain salary on some of their expiring contracts, they likely won’t be as willing to do so in a move for either of these veterans.

Elsewhere in the East:

While the Blue Jackets are believed to be looking for scoring help, they’re not willing to part with a first-round pick for a rental player, notes George Richards of the Columbus Dispatch. That would seemingly take them out of the hunt for Buffalo winger Evander Kane. Columbus didn’t have their top draft choice back in June after moving it to Vegas as part of an Expansion Draft trade so it’s certainly understandable that GM Jarmo Kekalainen would like to keep it this time around. However, if they want to pursue one of the other top forwards on the market that are signed beyond this season, they may have to be more willing to use that as a chip to get a deal done.
Although Canadiens defenseman Jakub Jerabek is slated to become an unrestricted free agent in July, Montreal is hoping to re-sign him instead of moving him by the trade deadline, reports Arpon Basu of The Athletic (subscription required). The 26-year-old started the season at the minor league level but has since worked himself into a mostly regular role with the Canadiens. In 25 games this season, he has a goal and three assists while averaging 17:21 per game so a new deal shouldn’t cost considerably more than the $925K he’s earning on his entry-level deal this season.

Central Injury Updates: Niederreiter, Sanford, Stars, Mason

February 2, 2018 at 6:37 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Minnesota is set to get a key player back in their lineup as winger Nino Niederreiter is expected to return tonight after missing the last eight games with an ankle injury, notes Dane Mizutani of the Pioneer Press. The issue has been a lingering one for Niederreiter who sustained it early in the season and has been battling it since then. Despite that, he has still been one of the more productive scorers for the Wild with 13 goals in 31 games this season; his goals-per-game average ranks tops on the team. As the team didn’t place him on injured reserve, they don’t need to make a corresponding roster move to get him back on the active roster.

More injury notes from the Central:

Although Blues winger Zachary Sanford is with the team for their road trip, Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the youngster is still a long way away from returning. Sanford stated that he’s unsure if he will be able to get back into the lineup at some point this month but it appears that he will be ready to play down the stretch. The 23-year-old has yet to play this season after undergoing shoulder surgery in September and could make a push for a third line spot when he does return.
Although he did not suffer a concussion after being hit on the side of the face with the puck on Thursday, Stars goaltender Ben Bishop has been ruled out of Saturday’s contest against Minnesota, notes Mark Stepneski on the Stars’ team website. They are expected to recall a goalie to serve as the backup tomorrow. Meanwhile, center Martin Hanzal (muscle pull) and defenseman Marc Methot (knee) skated with the team as they continue to work their way back from their respective injuries but head coach Ken Hitchcock does not have a timeframe for when the veterans may get the green light to play.
Jets goaltender Steve Mason skated on his own on Thursday for the first time since being diagnosed with his second concussion of the season, notes Postmedia’s Ken Wiebe. As a result, he is still a while away from returning which could very well take Michael Hutchinson out of the equation as a possible trade option as they may prefer to keep him around as insurance if Mason’s recovery goes slower than expected.

Deadline Primer: Buffalo Sabres

February 2, 2018 at 5:30 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

With the trade deadline fast approaching, we will be taking a closer look at the situation for each team. Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs? First up is a look at the Buffalo Sabres.

With a new coach and a new general manager at the helm, optimism heading into the season was higher with the hope that Buffalo could turn their fortunes around. That hasn’t happened. Instead, they find themselves with a lower points percentage than last year and as a result, they are squarely at the bottom of the Eastern Conference. Accordingly, the approach for this upcoming trade deadline closely resembles the one they’ve had in recent years.

Record

14-28-9, 8th in Atlantic Division

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$25.7MM – full-season cap hit, 0/3 retained salary transactions, 46/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Draft Picks

2018: BUF 1st, BUF 2nd, BUF 4th, MIN 4th, BUF 5th, BUF 6th, BUF 7th
2019: BUF 1st, BUF 2nd, BUF 3rd, BUF 4th, BUF 5th, BUF 6th, BUF 7th

Trade Chips

Let’s get the obvious out of the way first. Winger Evander Kane sits as the most prominent rental player available and with his acknowledgement that there have yet to be any discussions regarding a new contract, an extension certainly doesn’t appear to be on the horizon. The asking price as of two weeks ago involved four pieces – a first-round draft pick, a prospect, a conditional selection, and a roster player. So far, no one has been willing to meet that ask but GM Jason Botterill likely won’t be budging much off of that for the next few weeks. This could be a case that drags out until very close to the trade deadline.

Beyond that, the Sabres will likely be dangling several of their other pending UFAs. However, those players will be more of the depth variety and won’t bring back more than mid-round draft picks. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them look to move one of their goalies to open up a spot for Linus Ullmark to get some more action with Buffalo before the season comes to an end. Zemgus Girgensons has underachieved in recent years and could be viewed as a change of scenery candidate as well though with one more season left on his deal (with RFA eligibility after that), he isn’t a rental player.

Five Players To Watch For: LW/C Zemgus Girgensons, D Josh Gorges, G Chad Johnson, LW Evander Kane, LW Benoit Pouliot

Team Needs

1) Draft Picks: For a team that has basically been in perpetual rebuilding mode in recent years, the Sabres don’t have many draft picks of note on the horizon or even many extra late ones to work with. Kane’s eventual trade should yield at least one of those plus a quality prospect even if Botterill can’t get his complete asking price. Moving players like Johnson and Pouliot should give them some extra picks towards the back half of the draft as well.

2) Defensive Upgrades: Buffalo overhauled their defense corps last summer and it’s safe to say that it hasn’t worked out as planned. They lack a true shutdown defender and while they are a more mobile unit now, for the most part, it hasn’t translated to much in the way of offensive production. Zach Bogosian missing nearly the entire year hasn’t helped either. It will be difficult for the Sabres to address this too much at this time unless they do so in the Kane trade by getting a blueliner as the prospect involved in the deal. Otherwise, this is an area that they will likely look to address in the offseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Johan Larsson Suspended Two Games For Cross-Checking

February 2, 2018 at 3:47 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

The NHL’s Department of Player Safety has announced another ruling, this time suspending Buffalo Sabres forward Johan Larsson for two games following his cross-check last night on Vincent Trocheck. As the accompanying video explains:

Players are responsible for their stick at all times. When a player attempts to intentionally use his stick to deliver a blow to an opponent, he cannot necessarily be excused of all responsibility when the blow lands in an unintentional place.

Larsson clearly attempted to cross-check Trocheck in the shoulder, but will now serve an extra two games and sacrifice some salary for the mistake. It also will put a first strike on his record that had otherwise been free of any supplementary discipline.

The Sabres will now have to go without one of their centers for the next few games, in which they take on tough matchups against the St. Louis Blues and Anaheim Ducks. Larsson is eligible to return on February 8th.

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