2016-17 Season Preview: Arizona Coyotes
With training camps opening around the league and the new season less than three weeks away, we continue our series of team previews with a look at the Arizona Coyotes.
Last Season: 35 – 39 – 8 (78 points), fourth place in the Pacific Division. Missed the playoffs.
Salary Cap Space Remaining: $2.347MM (per Cap Friendly). The Coyotes will be able to free up to an additional $10.5MM by placing Dave Bolland and Chris Pronger on LTIR.
Key Newcomers: Alex Goligoski (D) – trade with Dallas; Jamie McGinn (LW) – free agent from Anaheim; Luke Schenn (D) – free agent from L.A. Kings; Radim Vrbata (RW) – free agent from Vancouver; Lawson Crouse (LW) – trade with Florida.
Key Departures: Antoine Vermette (C) – contract buyout – signed with Anaheim as free agent; Alex Tanguay (LW) – free agent; Boyd Gordon (C) – signed with Philadelphia as a free agent.
Players to Watch: Mike Smith and Goligoski. The Coyotes allowed the third most goals in the entire league which was a function of substandard goaltending and a mediocre defense corps. GM John Chayka addressed the defense, dealing a fifth-round pick to Dallas in exchange for the negotiating rights to Goligoski and subsequently signed the veteran puck-mover to a five-year contract.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson is the Coyotes #1 blue liner but Goligoski adds a reliable veteran to the mix who can play in all situations and will strengthen the team’s top-four. Last season he tallied 37 points for the Stars and has averaged 40 points for every 82 games he has played during his career. Goligoski was a horse on the back end in 2015-16, averaging nearly 24 minutes a game for the Central Division champs.
Meanwhile, the team is hopeful Smith will be healthy and provide steady play between the pipes for the Coyotes. The team finished 23rd overall in goalie save percentage with Smith appearing in just 32 games. On a promising note, Smith led all NHL goalies with 15 or more games played in 2015-16 in High Danger Save % (HDsV%) with a mark of 87.4% and has stopped at least 84% of those high quality chances in three of the last four seasons.
Smith was superlative in 2011-12 – the last season the Coyotes qualified for the playoffs – winning 38 games and finishing with a Sv% of 93.0%. He has the ability to single-handedly keep the Coyotes in games and if Goligoski can help clean up the defensive end, the Coyotes will be a contender.
Storylines: The John Chayka experiment and the development of the kids. Chayka is not only the league’s youngest GM but he’s also the first to come from a more analytically-oriented background. Fair or not, how the Coyotes perform with the roster he has assembled will have a major impact on how analytics and advanced stats are perceived in the league. If he can build a winner in Arizona with a limited payroll, it might encourage more clubs to actively embrace the role of analytics in the game.
By all accounts Chayka is a bright guy and most of his offseason moves were met with positive reactions from hockey pundits. His actual reliance on analytics in roster construction may be overstated but there is no question old school managers and coaches will be watching with interest.
Although improved goaltending and more contributions from the club’s blue liners will be important, perhaps the key to this upcoming season is the continued development of its young talent. Max Domi and Anthony Duclair are already well on their way to becoming stars in this league but the team does lack an established #1 center. Fortunately, they do have Dylan Strome, the third overall pick in the 2015 entry draft and one of the game’s top prospects. Strome has been among the most explosive scorers in junior hockey, totaling 240 points in 124 games with Erie of the OHL, averaging nearly two points per contest. No one expects the young pivot to immediately fill the void at #1 but if he can establish himself as a legitimate NHL regular it will take some of the pressure of the team’s returning centers. Assuming Duclair, Domi and the team’s other young players take the next step in their development and Strome proves to be ready for the NHL, Arizona has a realistic shot at playoff contention.
Players Changing Positions Up Front In 2016-17
Often, players around the league will be thrust into new situations and responsibilities because of injury or ineffectiveness on the part of someone else. Sometimes they thrive in this new role, and sometimes they just can’t quite make it work. Here are a few players who will be changing roles this season:
Dylan Larkin – Moving to C – As Ansar Khan of Mlive writes in his latest column, the Red Wings are looking for an answer down the middle after the departure of Pavel Datsyuk to the KHL. Larkin, originally drafted as a centerman out of the US development program, will be moved back to the position for the upcoming year.
In his own words, he’s “going to have to work on faceoffs and little details that are going make me a better player all around and better in the defensive zone.” Indeed, if the Red Wings want to replace Datsyuk’s excellent two-way game, Larkin will need to concentrate on the defensive end a little bit more. He clearly has all the talent to make it work offensively.
William Nylander – Moving to W – In a case of the opposite transition, Nylander of the Maple Leafs is preparing to play much of this season on the wing of Auston Matthews, a pair that head coach Mike Babcock wants to keep together for a while to see if he can create some chemistry. While Babcock admits that Nylander may still take some draws on the right side, he won’t have to be as responsible for the defensive side of the centering a line – something that he struggled with last season.
Another possible Maple Leafs candidate for the transition is Mitch Marner, the uber-prospect who some think is too small to play center in the NHL. If he makes the squad, he’d be hard pressed to knock one of Matthews, Nazem Kadri or Tyler Bozak out of that role, leading to a potential pairing with one of them to start his young career.
Tomas Hertl – Moving to C – While this one actually happened midway through last season, it’s important to note that Hertl will be coming into this camp as a center, and will be pushed to develop and stay at the spot. He’s spent much of his career thus far on Joe Thornton‘s wing, but will now be a big piece of the Sharks down the middle. Even on the third line, Hertl can provide impact with his blazing speed and nifty offensive hands; if he’s to become a future first line centerman though, he’ll have to develop the defensive game just like Larkin.
Mikael Granlund – Moving to W – Another player who made the switch late last year, Granlund excelled on the wing and impressed GM Chuck Fletcher so much that he’ll be moved there again this year. The Wild’s signing of Eric Staal makes sure of that, as they now have a handful of centers that could suit up on the top two lines. Granlund will be allowed to focus on his offense, something that the Wild think will do him wonders. The 24-year old has provided strong play-making ability in his short career, racking up 101 assists in 240 games; from the wing, perhaps he’ll be able to build on his career-high goal total of 13 last season.
Frank Vatrano To Miss Three Months After Foot Surgery
The injuries keep piling up on Saturday, as now news has come down that Bruins’ youngster Frank Vatrano will miss three months following foot surgery on Monday.
Vatrano was suspiciously missing from the first day of training camp yesterday, and reports were vague on his status. Somehow, in his training up until now he has torn several ligaments in his left foot and will undergo surgery with Dr. George Theodore on Monday.
After lighting the AHL on fire with 36 goals in 36 games last season, Vatrano came up to the NHL club and posted a respectable 11 points in his first 39 games. While he couldn’t replicate the unbelievable pace he set in the minors, he did prove that he can play at the NHL level and contribute offensively in limited minutes.
Undrafted out of the US development program, Vatrano is a wonderful example of players working hard to continue their dream of playing professional hockey. After playing at UMass-Amherst for just a single season (plus one game), the Bruins signed the 5’10”, 215 lbs forward to little fanfare. In the 80 professional games since, he’s scored 45 goals and tallied 67 points.
Injury Notes: Eakin, Shore, Maguire
After news came down this morning that Matt Murray would miss 3-6 weeks after breaking his hand in the World Cup and Mark Stone had suffered a concussion and is out indefinitely, more injury news hit the wire.
In Dallas, Devin Shore left today’s scrimmage with an injury and will be out “some time”, according to Brandon Worley. Shore was competing for a job at the NHL level after being drafted in the second round in 2012 and making his debut last season after other injuries. More importantly, Lindy Ruff told Worley that Cody Eakin will be out for six weeks with a lower-body injury, meaning the centerman will be out until some time in November.
Eakin has been a solid contributor for the Stars throughout his career, putting up three straight seasons with at least 16 goals and 35 points. Only 25, the former third round pick put up 8 points in the Stars’ 13 playoff games, leading some to believe a breakout was in order for this season.
In Pittsburgh, Bill West of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports that the Pens lost a second goaltender today for a lengthy period. It was announced that prospect Sean Maguire will miss 4-6 weeks with a lingering concussion issue from his college days. Maguire was exceptional in his three seasons at Boston University, and made his professional debut this spring with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins of the AHL.
Pens’ GM Jim Rutherford also told reporters that Bryan Rust and Oskar Sundqvist skated on their own this morning and will be able to start practicing in the coming few days. Each player was dealing with minor injuries and are expected to be fine for the beginning of the season.
World Cup Notes: Forsberg, Datsyuk, Marchand
When the Washington Capitals traded away Filip Forsberg for Martin Erat in an attempt at the Stanley Cup a few years ago, they gave away one of the games most dynamic young players – one that has developed into a legitimate goal-scoring threat from anywhere on the ice. They also lost their chance at having Forsberg potentially skate alongside Nicklas Backstrom and Alexander Ovechkin. It would likely have been an unstoppable offensive trio, and Backstrom said as much today when speaking with Dan Rosen of NHL.com:
He reminds me of playing with Alex with his quick release. He loves shooting the puck. He loves to go to the net. He loves creating stuff. In that way he reminds me of Ovi.
Forsberg, who has already scored 60 goals in his brief NHL career, has a long way to go to catch one of the all-time great goal scoring wingers but even without 50-per-season he’ll be an elite player. Swedish defenders like Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Roman Josi and Mattias Ekholm, all excellent players in their own right, agree that Forsberg is one player you can’t give much space. Had he stayed in Washington, playing with Backstrom and Ovechkin would have afforded him that room.
- Pavel Datsyuk took the ice at team Russia’s morning skate prior to their evening matchup against Canada, but will still be a game-time decision. He didn’t take part in the entire practice, instead doing some skating at center ice by himself. He sat out the Russian’s final round-robin game against Finland with a “lower-body injury”, and hasn’t been the same dynamic force he used to be.
- Always known for a good soundbite, Drew Doughty told reporters “that’s a bonus, that’s for sure” in regards to missing the first part of Kings camp due to the World Cup. While the players remaining won’t get to practice with their squads for at least a few more days, the work they’ve put in with and against the best players in the world should be more than enough to get them ready for the season. The only worry is injuries, like the one suffered by Matt Murray which will now keep him out 3-6 weeks.
- In his latest column, AP’s Stephen Whyno speculates that Brad Marchand may be a top target for the Pittsburgh Penguins if he reaches free agency next summer, due to the growing chemistry between the Boston winger and his Team Canada center Sidney Crosby. The two have scored seven points in three games and look like they are a natural fit together on the ice. Fitting Marchand into their salary structure may prove difficult however, if Marchand can duplicate his outstanding 37-goal campaign from a year ago.
Blues Notes: Steen, Shattenkirk, Hutton
When David Backes left the St. Louis Blues this offseason, they saw one of their longest tenured player and leaders depart without much fanfare. Backes slipped into free agency and landed a big deal with the Boston Bruins to work down in their lineup and give them some secondary scoring and two-way play. With Backes gone, the Blues decided to lock up one of their other cornerstone forwards, giving Alex Steen a four-year extension on Friday.
As Matt Larkin of The Hockey News opines in his latest column, it was Backes’ departure that made it necessary to lock up Steen and not completely turn the keys over to the new wave of St. Louis stars (namely Vladimir Tarasenko and Jaden Schwartz). To do it, they may have overpaid slightly. Larkin emphasizes Steen’s checkered injury history when discussing the terms, and he’s right to do so. Steen hasn’t played in 80+ games since 2006-07 when he was with the Maple Leafs, and indeed has only suited up for more than 70 twice in his eight-year Blues career.
- Kevin Shattenkirk was going to be traded. There were no doubts in his mind that at the draft or during free agent frenzy he’d be on the move out of St. Louis. It just made too much sense to everyone involved. As Louie Korac of NHL.com writes however, Shattenkirk didn’t get dealt and is very excited about it. “The grass isn’t always as greener. It’s a cliché, but it kind of fits in this sense. Don’t just leave to leave, make sure that it’s a good fit for you. St. Louis has been a great fit ever since I stepped foot here, ” Shattenkirk says, when talking about the potential trade. He also notes that being given the alternate-captain role for this upcoming season (the Blues named Alex Pietrangelo their newest captain) was a huge moment for him, as he’d been dreading a phone call from GM Doug Armstrong during the trade rumors. Even though he wasn’t dealt this summer, don’t think the rumors will go away – an elite talent on an expiring contract is exactly the type of player that moves at the trade deadline.
- When the Blues signed Jake Allen to a huge extension, and dealt Brian Elliott to the Flames they needed a new full-time backup for the upcoming season. Carter Hutton, the man who eventually was given that job, says it was a no-brainer to come to St. Louis. After three years with Nashville, the 30-year old backup puts it simply: “It’s one of those things. If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em.” Hutton has faced the Blues six times in his career and is 0-2-3 with an .882 save percentage and 3.42 GAA.
Snapshots: Lazar, Panthers, Andersen
As the season quickly approaches, even a few days off could set a player back substantially in his training, and with it knock the first part of his season out of rhythm. Curtis Lazar, the Ottawa Senators’ youngster who was set to enter his third NHL season at just 21-years old, has come down with a bout of mononucleosis and will be out indefinitely, reports Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Citizen.
The former first-round pick was set to play on Ottawa’s third line and build on his solid two-way game. Last season saw Lazar contribute 20 points, and while he’s not expected to win any scoring titles, this is a player who put up 41 goals in his final season of junior and made the NHL as a 19-year old.
- The Panthers have signed three players to PTOs today, bringing in some depth to fill out the practice rosters at camp, according to George Richards of the Miami Herald. Stephen MacAulay, Ryan Horvat and Brady Vail will all be pulling on Panthers sweaters for at least the next little while. All three have extensive professional experience at various levels, but have yet to crack an NHL lineup.
- ‘On track’, says Lou Lamoriello, when talking about Maple Leafs goaltender Frederik Andersen. Kristen Shilton of TSN reports that the injured goaltender is progressing on the original 3-4 week timetable given for his upper body injury sustained on September 5th. Monday would mark three weeks, meaning that Andersen should be able to at least make it into a partial camp before the season begins.
Red Wings Notes: Nyquist, Tatar, Sproul, Kronwall
Detroit Red Wings wingers Gustav Nyquist and Tomas Tatar had down years compared to season’s past. But head coach Jeff Blashill believes both he and will rebound this season writes MLive’s Ansar Khan. Khan reports that Tatar and Nyquist scored a combined 18 goals less in Blashill’s first season and the second year coach responded by challenging his two wingers–and himself–to bring their production back to what it once was. Blashill had this to say in regards to their struggles:
“They both have been good players in this league. I’m going to challenge them like I’ve challenged a lot of our young guys to be an elite player, where you can put a team or a line on your back every night, but they also have to get the opportunity from me to be able to do that. I think they’re both ready for the challenge.”
Tatar and Nyquist were expected to do the heavy lifting as Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk (now retired from the NHL) were entering the twilight of their careers. Khan writes that both Nyquist and Tatar saw a decrease in their time on the ice, with Nyquist losing over a minute and half per game while Tatar experienced a decrease of nearly two minutes less on the ice per game as compared to 2014-15.
Nyquist and Tatar are the key to the Wings’ scoring, and Blashill realizes that. Further, Khan writes, Blashill knows it’s up to him to get his two scoring wings more opportunities on the ice.
In other Wings news:
- Defenseman Ryan Sproul has inked a two-year deal with Detroit, which means he’ll get another shot at becoming a regular defenseman with the team that drafted him. Khan reports that the first year of Sproul’s contract is a two-way deal while the second reverts to a one-way. Additionally, Sproul will earn $600K in his first season and $650K in the final year. Sproul has been a puzzling case for the Red Wings as he boasts the elusive right hand shot on the blue line that the Wings lacked until grabbing Mike Green and promoting Alexey Marchenko last season. Sproul packs a booming slap shot and the unwillingness by Detroit to give him a chance with the big club has not gone unnoticed by an anxious fan base. Khan reports that this may be Sproul’s last chance to make the team as he will have to pass through waivers should he be beaten out for a spot on the roster. Further, Khan wonders if Detroit will try and trade him for a draft pick. In Grand Rapids last season, Sproul had 35 points (12-25) and registered nine points in nine playoff games. Helene St. James also writes about Sproul and says its the defenseman’s liability on the back end that could cost him a chance in Detroit, but Sproul remains undaunted, citing his hero Green as the inspiration for his game. Should Sproul have a great camp, he could find himself sharing the bench–and possibly the ice–with his idol.
- The Windsor Star’s Bob Duff writes that Niklas Kronwall‘s knee poses a threat to the defenseman’s present and future. Kronwall admitted that his knee is fine–until he skates–and as Duff reports, therein lies the problem. Duff adds that surgical options presented to Kronwall would certainly end his hockey career, and Kronwall isn’t sure himself when he will play again. Playing in the World Cup would have been too risky, so Kronwall passed on the chance. Despite the rest, it seems that the 35-year-old defenseman will have some crucial decisions to make about his knee–and possibly his career–in the near future.
Snapshots: Canes, Hertl, Fleischmann, Gagne
The Carolina Hurricanes have not qualified for the playoffs since the 2008-09 season but hope to change that this year. As Chip Alexander of The News & Observer reports, the team’s chances of breaking their seven year playoff drought will rely heavily on a talented, albeit young, group of players. Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask, Teuvo Teravainen, Justin Faulk, Brett Pesce, Noah Hanifin and Ryan Murphy are set to see a lot of ice for the Canes and none are over the age of 24.
One of the squad’s few experienced players, Lee Stempniak, a veteran of 11 NHL seasons, says he has never been part of a team with so many youngsters expected to fill important roles:
“Not really, not with young guys playing this prominent of a role, especially the defensemen. It’s young. I think it’s a team with a lot of potential. I think a lot of the success for our team is going to be harnessing our potential. Guys need to take the next step individually and the new guys coming in need to fit in and complement the players who are here and find a role.”
If anyone would know, it would be Stempniak, who has suited up for 10 different clubs during his career, including four over the last two campaigns. He hopes his stay in Carolina is a bit longer after singing a two-year deal worth $5MM this summer.
Of course young teams are inherently inexperienced and some might feel that factor could derail Carolina’s chances of a successful campaign. Not so, says another of the team’s elders, defenseman Ron Hainsey, who at 35 will is 11 years the senior of the second oldest regular blue liner, Justin Faulk:
“This is a young man’s league. I don’t think it’s a danger. Speed, skill is the name of the game.”
Despite the talent and skill, Carolina’s path to a playoff berth will not be an easy one. The Metro Division fielded five postseason qualifiers in 2015-16 while the Hurricanes finished 10 points behind the eighth-seeded Philadelphia Flyers.
Another factor which may work against the Canes is their goaltending. Carolina ranked 29th among 30 teams in save percentage but did nothing this offseason to upgrade the position. In fact, the team elected to re-sign longtime netminder Cam Ward to a new, two-year contract; a deal many pundits thought was curious.
Elsewhere in the NHL:
- Positive news in San Jose where Tomas Hertl skated today at the Sharks first training camp workout and showed no lingering ill effects from the MCL injury he suffered during the Stanley Cup Finals, reports Curtis Pashelka of The Mercury News. Hertl finished fifth on the club in scoring with 46 points during the regular season and contributed another 11 in the postseason. According to Pashelka, Hertl is preparing to play either center or wing though today he skated as the pivot between Joel Ward and Nikolay Goldobin. Hertl skipped the World Cup, electing not to represent the Czech Republic in the tournament in order to further rehab his knee injury. It appears the extra rest may have helped as Hertl looks to be on track to open the season at 100%.
- Tomas Fleischmann, who was set to appear at camp with the Minnesota Wild, has apparently failed his physical, according to Mike Russo via Twitter. Russo is unsure if that would be the end of Fleischmann’s brief time with Minnesota or not. Fleischmann was again attempting to catch on with a club after being forced to accept a PTO offer rather than a guaranteed contract. Last year he earned a one-year deal with Montreal in training camp and would record 10 goals and 20 points in 57 games with the Canadiens. He was dealt to Chicago at the trade deadline with Dale Weise and would tally another four goals and five points for the Blackhawks.
- The Ottawa Senators announced via their team Twitter account that they have signed forward Gabriel Gagne to an ELC. Gagne was the Sens second-round pick in 2015, going 36th overall. He split last season between Victoria and Shawinigan of the QMJHL and combined to register 36 points in 42 regular season contests. Gagne was even better in the postseason, tallying 22 points in 21 games.
Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Wennberg, DeHaan, Zibanejad
Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated their respective negotiation processes.
Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency, unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we continue in the Metro.
Alexander Wennberg (Columbus) – Wennberg was the Blue Jackets first-round pick in 2013, selected 14th overall. He debuted in the NHL during the 2014-15 season and finished with 20 points in 68 contests. He bumped his production up significantly in year two, recording 40 points in 69 games and flashing top-six potential.
Wennberg is more playmaker than goal scorer as his career 4-to-1 assist-to-goal ratio suggests. Washington’s Marcus Johansson posted similar career numbers through the expiration of his ELC with 33 goals and 62 assists in 183 contests; good for a points-per-game rate of 0.52. Johansson would sign a two-year contract worth $4MM total following the 2012-13 campaign.
The career production numbers between the two pivots should look similar given Wennberg tallies 40-plus points in close to a full slate of games in 2016-17 and would therefore be looking at a bridge deal right around the $2MM mark annually. Given Johansson’s second contract will be four years old, inflation could take that figure closer to $2.5MM per year. A longer term would appear unlikely as the Jackets will still have several inflated contracts on the books, including those of Scott Hartnell, Nick Foligno, Jack Johnson and Brandon Dubinsky.
Calvin de Haan (New York Islanders) – Now 25, de Haan is now at the age many defensemen peak in terms of production. Originally the 12th overall selection in the 2009 draft, de Haan has already established himself as one of the Islanders best defenders and will once again fill a spot in the club’s top-four. If he can stay healthy for a full slate of games and perhaps contribute a touch more in the offensive end, de Haan could set himself up for a nice raise on the $1.97MM AAV his current contract calls for.
Teammate Travis Hamonic, drafted by the Islanders in the second-round in 2008, is a bit more prolific offensively but should help us gauge de Haan’s potential value as a top-four defender. Upon the expiration of his ELC, Hamonic signed a seven-year, $27MM deal with an AAV of $3.857MM. By that time, Hamonic was already averaging better than 22 minutes of ice time and 0.33 points-per-game. If the two parties explore a long-term arrangement, it’s likely de Haan can point to Hamonic’s deal as a comparable.
Mika Zibanejad (New York Rangers) – As part of their overall team commitment to get younger and quicker this summer, the Rangers acquired the 23-year-old pivot from Ottawa in exchange for fellow center, Derick Brassard. Zibanejad, the Senators first-round pick in 2011, sixth overall, has steadily improved his offensive production since debuting as a regular during the strike-shortened 2012-13 campaign. Last season was Zibanejad’s best, with the Swede compiling 21 goals and 51 points in 81 contests.
A player with a similar pedigree, former high first-round choice and relatively consistent point-producer, Nazem Kadri, inked a six-year extension worth $27MM in April and that deal should serve as a reasonable target for Zibanejad. Kadri has averaged 0.59 points-per-game over the three seasons prior to his extension – 134 points in 227 games. Zibanejad, meanwhile, has averaged 0.57 points-per-contest the last three years – 130 points in 230 games.
Zibanejad is entering the final season of the two-year bridge deal he signed with Ottawa, paying the five-year veteran $2.625MM per season. A repeat of his 2015-16 performance this upcoming season should give Zibanejad a good chance to match the level of Kadri’s extension. But, if Kadri takes the next step in his development and makes a push for the 60-point threshold, he could see his value escalate to $5MM and up per season.