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Snapshots: Red Wings, Hainsey, Goodrow

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The Detroit Red Wings’ upcoming cap troubles have been examined at length here at PHR, but they’ll worry about the most immediate one in training camp. That’s according to Ansar Khan of MLive, who talked to GM Ken Holland about the fact that the Red Wings are projected to be over the cap when opening day rolls around. From the GM himself:

If everybody is healthy when we get to opening day, we’ll probably have to make a move. I’m anticipating we’ll be over by a little bit.

That little bit is because of Andreas Athanasiou’s still unsettled contract situation. The ultra-fast forward will require a raise after scoring 18 goals last season, which will push the Red Wings even further over the cap than they already are. Johan Franzen will hit long-term injured reserve but a decision will likely come from the defense, where they have nine players including Luke Witkowski, who may end up playing more forward this year anyway.

  • The Maple Leafs brought in Ron Hainsey to work with their young defense group this season, and according to Dave McCarthy of NHL.com Mike Babcock expects to play him alongside Morgan Rielly to start the season. Babcock is usually strict about playing defensemen on their strong side (meaning left-handed players play the left and visa versa) but one of Rielly or Hainsey will have to flip. Both have plenty of experience on the right side, with Hainsey most recently playing there for the Pittsburgh Penguins in the playoffs. Rielly spent much of 2014-15 on the right side under former coaches Randy Carlyle and Peter Horacek. Regardless of who moves over, it’s a big ask for the 36-year old Hainsey as Rielly was used in a very defensive deployment by Babcock last year, skating against the opponent’s top line almost every night.
  • The San Jose Sharks have signed Barclay Goodrow to a two-year contract, inking the restricted free agent after another outstanding AHL season. Signed as a CHL free agent in 2014, Goodrow actually broke into the league immediately and played 60 games for the Sharks. Since then he’s spent most of his time in the AHL, registering back-to-back 20+ goal seasons. This year he put up 25 goals and 45 points, but got into just three games with the Sharks at the highest level. The team expects him to battle for a full-time NHL role at training camp next month.

Robbie Russo Close To Signing With Detroit Red Wings

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According to Ansar Khan of MLive, the Detroit Red Wings are close to coming to an agreement with defenseman Robbie Russo. The restricted free agent was eligible for salary arbitration but decided not to file, usually a sign that the two sides have already had productive conversations during the year. He’s coming off his entry-level contract, but will likely sign a two-way deal with the Red Wings.

Russo, 24, made his NHL debut last season and spent 19 games with the Red Wings down the stretch. Drafted by the New York Islanders in 2011, he became a free agent in 2015 after four years at the University of Notre Dame and signed with the Red Wings immediately. After finding plenty of offensive success in the AHL in his first season and up to his call-up in March, he amazingly was held pointless in the NHL. That’s despite playing over 16 minutes a game with the Red Wings and generally being a positive possession player.

The Red Wings have a pretty full blueline after signing Trevor Daley and Luke Witkowski this summer—though the team has said the latter may play forward at times—and it’s unclear exactly where Russo fits in. Though both Niklas Kronwall and Jonathan Ericsson have dealt with injuries they’re expected to be ready for the start of the season, while according to Khan it’s not as clear for Ryan Sproul who is working through a knee injury. Either way, Russo will have to win a job in training camp to be included on the roster come the start of the season.

Two-Way Contracts Not Allowed To Participate In Olympics

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Confirming what had been expected for weeks now, the NHL made clear to Stephen Whyno of the Associated Press that players signed to NHL contracts will not be allowed to play in the upcoming Winter Olympics even if they are currently in the minors. Players can go if signed to AHL-only contracts (or AHL/ECHL two-way contracts), but any deal with an NHL portion will not be allowed.

This drastically reduces the Olympic drawing pool, but it was already expected with Team Canada going with a squad almost entirely made up of European league players and USA Hockey admitting that they’d look mostly to the NCAA ranks for their team. Whyno adds another interesting detail that players under contract but loaned to European teams are eligible, since they wouldn’t be able to play in the NHL this season anyway. It would be tough to see players like Lias Andersson or Miro Heiskanen make the Olympic team, but this would make them eligible even though they’ve already signed entry-level contracts with their respective teams. Both are expected (for now) to return to their native countries for development this season.

That exemption also extends to players in the Canadian junior leagues according to Whyno, meaning other first-round talents who are headed back to the CHL after signing ELCs could be of interest to their various countries. Though Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier are expected to break camp with the Flyers and Devils, other young players could be included in Pyeongchang.

It will be interesting to see how many players under AHL-only contracts are considered, with someone like Darren Raddysh coming to mind as a potential option. Raddysh signed an AHL contract after a huge season in the OHL, and could be among those considered for the Olympic team. While many believed the 21-year old defenseman would find an entry-level contract somewhere after putting up 81 points in his final year for the Erie Otters, he instead settled for a minor league deal with the Chicago Blackhawks. Perhaps maintaining Olympic eligibility was a factor, as he would have to be seriously considered, especially if he gets off to a hot start with the Rockford team.

Cap Haven: Vegas Golden Knights’ Ability To Eat Bad Contracts

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The Vegas Golden Knights are in a better situation now than any of the last few NHL expansion franchises. Sure, some would look at their roster and see a team that could easily finish last in the entire league, devoid of high-end talent or superstar potential; but as we’ve already discussed they had a heck of a first entry draft and are set to improve themselves again at the deadline this year. It could be a quick build for the league’s 31st franchise. David Clarkson

Following Nate Schmidt’s arbitration decision this weekend, in which the Golden Knights locked up another trade deadline asset for a reasonable price, the team currently projects to have around $5.6MM in cap space for the upcoming season. That number may not look very large, but it is actually quite deceiving. The Golden Knights have two players—David Clarkson and Mikhail Grabovski—who will never suit up for another NHL game and are destined for long-term injured reserve should the team need it. Their combined cap hit of $10.25MM would be available to the Knights if they acquired more salary, and there is where the team will really bring in the most value.

Clarkson and Grabovski are already examples of how eating a bad contract can be beneficial for a team. The Columbus Blue Jackets and New York Islanders both sent a first-round pick this year and a second-round selection in 2019 to move the contracts off the books (and decide which player would be selected in the expansion draft), leading to Vegas’ huge draft haul. Those deals are just the tip of the iceberg for what Vegas could pull off in the next few years. In July, Vegas owner Bill Foley made it clear that there was “no budget” for the club, and that they’d use financial muscle to vault them into the NHL spotlight right away.

Vegas also has eleven defensemen at the moment, and whether or not that is reduced by trade prior to the year or burying certain contracts in the minors, there is more space coming off the salary cap for the NHL team. Even a conservative estimate of an additional $3MM in created room puts the team at around $19MM in in-season cap space, a huge number they could use to their advantage. Recently we’ve looked at some of the worst contracts in the league, both in a per-point capacity and looking forward on long-term deals. Vegas is a clear landing spot for any of these under-performers.

Cody GlassThe question then, becomes whether the team believes it can truly compete in the next five years. Acquiring bad contracts is fine if you’re committed to a long rebuild, one that will be starting to turn into a competitive window as the contracts expire. But if Vegas GM George McPhee believes that the trio of Cody Glass, Nick Suzuki and Erik Brannstrom will jump start the process enough to really compete before say, Dustin Brown’s five remaining years expire then they have to be hesitant to acquire such a bad deal.

Vegas has just $11.6MM committed to active players for the 2019-20 season. Whatever you say about their decisions in the expansion draft, they’ve put themselves in a position to act as a sort of cap haven for teams around the league and stockpile young assets because of it. They already have fourteen picks in rounds 1-3 of the next three drafts, including a whopping seven selections in 2019. They’ll easily have even more than that at the end of the year, and more still the summer after that. Draft picks are like lottery tickets, but if you’re the only one playing you stand quite a good chance of winning.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Harrison Browne Returns To NWHL

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Last year, Harrison Browne became the first transgender player in North American team sports when he contacted the league and transitioned from being a woman. Browne was a player for the Buffalo Beauts at the time, and had the full support of the NWHL and its commissioner Dani Rylan. In his announcement, he said that he would retire after the season to begin his physical transition and have his name legally changed from Hailey but it seems that retirement won’t stick.

Today, Browne signed a contract with the New York Riveters for the 2017-18 season and will return to the NWHL to try and continue his on-ice success. Last year Browne and the Beauts took home the Isobel Cup as league champions, a feat the Riveters will try to match. Their head coach Chad Wiseman was the one who recruited Browne back into the league, and had this to say on the subject:

Harrison is a veteran NWHL player with an Isobel Cup championship on his resume and a tenacious style and relentless work ethic that makes him a great fit for the Riveters organization. I had the privilege to work with Harrison this summer back home in Canada. He has a great attitude and, in my view, underrated skill level. I believe this could be a breakout year for him on offense.

The NHL announced their “You Can Play” ambassadors this season to reach out to the LGBTQ community and continue their commitment to the idea that “Hockey Is For Everyone.” Browne’s return does nothing but strengthen that stance for the NWHL, and his impact on the community was part of the decision to return. On the subject:

The impact I was able to make as an active pro athlete in the LGBTQ community meant a lot to me. At this time – when rights seem to be getting taken away instead of gained – the platform is something I’m not ready to give up. I want to remain as visible as I can for any LGBTQ youth who may view me as a positive role model. I’m going to continue to share my story.

The NWHL will be lacking in some star talent this year due to the Olympic circuit stealing some of the top names, but there will be several new talents enter with the draft on August 17th. The season will begin in October.

Morning Notes: Wrenn, Crosby, Sochi

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Just being a second-round pick doesn’t necessarily guarantee you a shot at the NHL, and that’s what William Wrenn has had to come to grips with this offseason. After bouncing around the minor leagues for several years, the former San Jose Sharks’ pick will head to the KHL for a new chapter in his career.

Wrenn played last season with the Toronto Marlies, his fifth straight in the minor leagues since coming out of the WHL’s Portland Winterhawks. Before that it was the University of Denver where he played just two seasons, beginning an interesting journey after being selected 43rd-overall. With Dinamo Riga next year, the 26-year old defenseman will try to prove that there’s more to his game.

  • Sidney Crosby turned 30 years old today, finishing the first part of his career with 1,027 regular season points and three Stanley Cups. Crosby has eight years remaining on his current contract meaning it may be his last one, and interestingly the Penguins will get quite the discount in a few years. Crosby is due just $9MM total in the last three seasons, making him affordable even if his play does decline rapidly in his mid-thirties.
  • After prevailing on Sunday in their first game at the Sochi Open, players for Team Canada will continue their audition for the Olympic roster with a game against Russia today. Former Toronto Maple Leafs prospect Jesse Blacker scored the winner yesterday, and Justin Peters earned the shutout. The full roster for the Canadian squad can be found here.

Snapshots: Backes, Ikonen, Luongo

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Although he was listed among the worst contracts for 2017-18 earlier this evening, David Backes is hoping for a bounceback year in Boston. Per an article penned by NBC Sports’ Adam Gretz, Backes realizes that he has underperformed thus far during his Massachusetts tenure. In an interview, Backes highlighted that he will focus this off-season on improving his agility and acceleration, which were severely lacking last year. As Gretz mentioned, however, he is 33 years old and cannot be expected to transform overnight. Adjusting to the increased speed of the NHL game could prove a challenge for Backes, but Boston has little choice but to hope that he can become the asset that he was in St. Louis as their long-time captain. The contract is relatively unmovable unless salary is retained and there are four years left on the deal. If nothing else, Backes could learn to fit into a more sheltered third-line shutdown role, as his defensive ability is absolutely still present.

  • Center Joni Ikonen is a cause for optimism in Montreal, or so says Grant McCagg of Recrutes. Ikonen’s performance in the recent Summer Showcase was truly head-turning, as the flash he displays on a regular basis is highly intriguing. He also produced enough for fourth-best in the tournament, while looking defensively capable all the while. He finished the tournament with an impressive hat trick in a loss to Sweden. Ryan Poehling, another prospect at the showcase, also played well enough to attract praise. Poehling is less dynamic that Ikonen, but he already has an NHL-ready body and two-way mindset. He, like Ikonen, netted 5 points in 5 games in the brief tournament. The comparisons to Ryan Kesler may be relatively premature, but he seems a solid bet to make an impact. If either, or both, players make the Canadiens roster in the next few seasons, it would go a long way towards alleviating the massive center-ice issues the team has struggled with for at least a decade. Alex Galchenyuk will still likely have to take the reigns for this year, however.
  • The Panthers are hoping to run with the Roberto Luongo / James Reimer goalie tandem for the near future, and are seemingly OK with that. Cat Silverman wrote a piece for FanRag Sports that details how the combination might work out this season to propel the team into the post-season yet again. The duo performed admirably last year through a long down spell and a coaching change, with Reimer claiming 42 of the starts. Luongo’s save percentage was a respectable .915, just behind Reimer’s .920. Luongo will have every opportunity to return to his “starter” status, but competition isn’t always a bad thing. Luongo’s contract, with 5 years remaining at 38, looks really formidable though, so the organization has to hope he can maintain his form well enough to grind out at least 3 more seasons. Craig Anderson is still going strong at 36, and Tim Thomas had his best years after the age of 34. Lightening Luongo’s yearly load will go a long way towards keeping him fresh. Ultimately, GM Dale Tallon had a solid, if unremarkable off-season, and is staying patient with the progress of his young core. As long as neither goalie’s performance totally implodes, they should at least challenge for a playoff spot.

Inactive Blues Hoping For Different Results

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The St. Louis Blues were one of the most inactive teams this summer, right alongside the Edmonton Oilers and San Jose Sharks. With their relative success in a difficult Central division, it’s easy to understand why they didn’t make too many seismic transactions. Still, they had a moderate backslide in points last season despite making it to the second round. With only 99 points, they easily could have found themselves on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. The team’s only major move this off-season was trading Jori Lehtera for Brayden Schenn, by most accounts a trade they came out on top. Still, did the Blues need to be more aggressive?

The team has one of the most consistently underrated defensemen in Alex Pietrangelo, and Colton Parayko behind him is no slouch. After that, however, the pickings on defense are rather uninspiring. Jay Bouwmeester still logs substantial time on ice, with a 22:24 average, but there are signs his play is starting to slip. His last four seasons have been negative possession seasons (relative Corsi), and his offensive game has completely dried up. He only scored one goal to accompany his 14 assists last season. Furthermore, age is starting to catch up to him in terms of footspeed. He’ll be 35 this season, and that issue isn’t going to get any better in the years to come. Carl Gunnarsson only saw sheltered time last year, with just over 13 minutes a night against weaker competition. Robert Bortuzzo is a 6th defenseman at best and Joel Edmundson has work to round out his game if he wants to solidify himself as a top-four defender. Ultimately, the team needs defensive help, especially when the team will be up against the likes of the Blackhawks and Stars on a regular basis.

The offense is deep but undeniably overly reliant on Vladimir Tarasenko. Paul Stastny is looking nowhere near worth his contract, and Alex Steen has to slow down at some point in the near future. Jaden Schwartz is primed to have another solid 50+ point season, but if the bodies around him again struggle with consistency it could be an uphill endeavor. Robby Fabbri is another player to watch, as the former first-rounder looks to put together a solid, healthy campaign. The aforementioned addition of Schenn is valuable, but the team could arguably have done more to bring fresh blood in. The team is really banking on Vladimir Sobotka to prove his worth, but there is still the risk of him not producing. He’s never topped 10 goals in an NHL season, after all. Ivan Barbashev looks very promising, but he’s still somewhat of an unknown entity at this point. Ultimately, the team lacks a proven, go-to offensive threat behind Tarasenko Whereas other teams in the division have exceptional one-two punches, the Blues are still hoping to develop theirs fully.

There were available names this offseason to be had if GM Doug Armstrong was willing to make the moves. An Alexander Radulov, for example, would have done wonders to ease some of the pressure from Tarasenko. There are still names available, though, such as Thomas Vanek and Jaromir Jagr up front. On defense, not much remains at this late date. A trade would really be the only sensible option. The team is still relatively undersized up front and overtaxes the top defenders. Cap space was undoubtedly an issue, as at $72.57 MM currently there was little room to maneuver. Still, moving out a larger contract like Stastny’s or Bouwmeester’s might have cleared room to add an important piece or two. The Blues lost Kevin Shattenkirk at the deadline, and it remains to be seen how his absence will affect the team over the course of a full year. The coaching staff behind Mike Yeo did phenomenal work to bring the team back into contention, but stagnation can often cost teams who are on the bubble. It will be interesting to see if Armstrong remains quiet this off-season, or opts for an additional move before the season’s start.

Which 2017 Draft Picks Will Make Their Teams?

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This year’s draft was notoriously thin in terms of elite talent, but that doesn’t mean that some of the top choices won’t make an impact. Of course, a lot will depend on training camp and whether players will return to Juniors, College, or overseas. Nico Hischier has already signed his entry-level contract with New Jersey, as has Nolan Patrick with Philadelphia. Both look primed to make their teams out of camp, even though Patrick will be recovering from an injury. It’s common for top picks to make their teams, and it would be shocking to see either fall short. Beyond these two, however, many of the top players till need seasoning.

The third pick, Miro Heiskanen, very well could return to the Finish Elite League for IFK, or theoretically be taken in the CHL import draft. Dallas doesn’t look like they’ll try to rush it with him, but anything is possible with this talented a player. Fourth overall was defenseman Cale Makar for Colorado, who is committed to play with the University of Massachussetts. Still, Colorado is hurting badly for skill and could benefit mightily from his dynamic presence on the blueline. Fifth overall was Elias Pettersson for Vancouver, who should return to Vaxjo of the SHL. He hasn’t signed an ELC and won’t attend training camp. Sixth overall Cody Glass looks primed to make a push for a spot in Vegas if he can show he belongs. The offense acquired via the expansion draft is very lean, and if Glass can round out his frame, the team may opt to toss him into the fire. He comes from a solid program with the Portland Winterhawks, and already surprised many with his ascension to first-round status in 2016-17.

Seventh overall was 5’11 center Lias Anderssson, who will fight for a position on the New York Rangers. In May, he signed a two-year contract with SHL’s Frolunda, so he might be one of the least likely of the group to see playing time in the near future. Casey Mittelstadt went eighth overall to Buffalo, and his phenomenal performance in the 2016 U-18 World Juniors played a large role in that. He only has USHL experience under his belt, however, and is committed to the Minnesota Gophers for the 2017-18 season. Michael Rasmussen is a towering, 6’6 center from Tri City of the WHL, and his overall physical package propelled him into that 9th selection by Detroit. Detroit is in need of cheap roster players on ELCs, but rushing a player of his caliber, especially coming off an injury-marred 2016-17 season, seems unlikely. GM Ken Holland is known for his patience when it comes to prospects. Rounding out the list, we have one of the few wingers selected in the first round – Owen Tippett of the OHL’s Mississauga Steelheads. His 44 goals in 60 games caught the attention of Florida’s scouts, and he could make things interesting with a solid camp showing.

In the final evaluation, there are really only two sure-fire picks to make their teams in the 2017-18 season. Of course, there are players later in the order who could surprise and get a look as well. Gabriel Vilardi (11) would inject some much needed offense to a floundering Los Angeles squad, and already possesses NHL size. Nick Suzuki (13) could transcend Glass in Vegas as his flashy speed and exceptional passing are already pro-level. Future teammate Erik Brannstrom (15) proved again that he belongs in the conversation in the recent Summer Showcase. Timothy Liljegren (17) is already making Toronto fans salivate at his potential, and there is always someone unexpected who completely blows away the competition in camp. We shouldn’t see more than one or two surprises, but anything is possible once the players retake the ice in August for some internal competition.

In your mind, which 2017 draft picks make the NHL starting roster for their teams, excluding the obvious Hischier and Patrick? Will any of these names compete for a Calder, or will there only be one or two immediately successful rookies from this class? (For comparison’s sake, 4 players played regularly last season of all the players selected in 2016).

Please vote in our poll below!

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Bad Value: The Worst Contracts League-Wide

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It’s always interesting to see where teams are spending their money unwisely, especially to the armchair GMs of every fanbase. In a fine article by Satchel Price of SB Nation, he breaks down what he believes is each team’s worst contract currently on the books. After the slew of buyouts that happened early in the off-season, many teams were able to cut ties with some of the worst offenders. Still, some of the worst cap criminals are primed to haunt their teams yet again in 2017-18. Discounting the injured Nathan Horton, David Clarkson, and Dave Bolland, these were some of the names that stuck out on the list.

David Backes – Boston Bruins – 4 yrs x $6 MM

When Backes signed this contract, many were wondering what the Boston management were thinking. Backes already was showing signs of decline his last two seasons in St. Louis, and his tough style of play was always going to take away from his longevity. He still flirts with 40+ points and adds solid two-way ability. But in 2 seasons, if Backes continues to slow and falter possession-wise, this contract may become a brutal obstacle to beefing up the offense.

Brent Seabrook – Chicago Blackhawks – 7 yrs x $6.785 MM

Seabrook was a player who really piggy-backed off the success of the Hawks cup teams. He was a solid player, but by no means a core player. GM Stan Bowman thought differently, and handed out a massive, maximum-term contract, complete with a no-movement clause. Chicago has really struggled to fill their depth forward and bottom defensive positions out with cheap players, largely because of overpayments like this. Seabrook did accumulate a ton of assists last year, but his goal scoring has all but disappeared. Perhaps the worst negative to Seabrook? He’s never been a positive possession player in Corsi relative, in any single season he’s played. For a franchise that pays Jonathan Toews over $10 MM AAV, this contract is absolutely crippling.

Dustin Brown – L.A. Kings – 5 yrs x $5.875 MM

Brown benefited from the same intangibles-related inflation that Toews did. Leading a team to multiple Cups is generally a recipe to have your value balloon immensely. Winners are winners, after all. Brown, though, was never really integral to the team’s on-ice success in 2012 or 2014, and his undisputed leadership abilities didn’t help the team in the past few years when they have struggled to put pucks in the nett. His two-way ability is solid, but not elite, and he hasn’t broken 20 goals since 2011-12. Perhaps Brown can be revitalized under the system of coach John Stevens, but his body has to have taken a toll with the way he’s played the game. One need only look to former King Mike Richards to see what gritty, shot-blocking forwards have in the way of staying power.

Marc Staal – New York Rangers – 4 yrs x $5.75 MM

In all likelihood, the primary reason Staal has not already been bought out is because he had one more year on his contract than the much-maligned Dan Girardi. Staal has been a noticeably bad defender in terms of possession stats for the last three seasons, and showed few (if any) signs of improvement this season. He still logs over 19 minutes of ice a night, so he’s not stapled to the bench. But he’s not a top-four defender at this point, and considering how he’s never been a two-way threat, his one-dimensional game may only deteriorate further.

Andrew MacDonald – Philadelphia Flyers – 3 ys x $5 MM

This is a prime example of an error that most teams have learned to avoid – handing out multi-year deals to wildly inconsistent players. MacDonald had his offensive totals inflated by playing for a very lean New York Islanders team, and Philadelphia pounced on acquiring this player in the midst of a -9.0% Corsi Relative season. MacDonald has since dried up offensively, and while he has cleaned up his possession numbers against weaker competition, he still needs massive sheltering. He also has had a heck of a time staying healthy – he’s missed 93 contests over the last 3 campaigns. MacDonald is now taking valuable playing time from a young defensive core and hindering the team’s ability to acquire top free agents.

 

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