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Poll: Who Will Be The Western Conference Champions?

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The Western Conference playoff field is set after the Wild and Blues took home wins last night in their final regular-season games. They both secure wild-card spots and lock in the following bracket:

C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC2 St. Louis Blues
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 Minnesota Wild
P2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers

That means it’s time to take out our crystal balls and look at who will represent the West in the Stanley Cup Final in a few months. For the wild-card clubs, it’s hard to imagine a more considerable disparity in upset difficulty than this year’s Western Conference. The Blues briefly jumped into the first wild-card spot following a 12-game win streak to get them into postseason position, but a 1-2-1 stretch to end the year had them fall back behind the Wild. That puts them in a Central Division bracket that includes the Presidents’ Trophy winners in Winnipeg and arguably the league’s two deepest offenses in Dallas and Colorado. All three teams finished in the top eight league-wide. There’s still upset potential there, given Jordan Binnington’s playoff history in the net and star center Robert Thomas playing the best hockey of his career (he’s fine after leaving last night’s game with a lower-body injury). Still, it’s a more challenging road on that side of the bracket. The last time Winnipeg and St. Louis met in the first round, though, the latter won the Stanley Cup.

The Jets enter postseason play as a wagon with a bandaged wheel. They got tough news yesterday with winger Nikolaj Ehlers aggravating a foot injury with a week-to-week designation, which almost certainly puts him out for the beginning of their series. While that’s a big blow to the league’s third-ranked offense, they’ll look to their top-ranked defense to hold up. While the skater core has done an exceptional job of limiting high-danger chances at even strength, most of the credit there remains with Vezina frontrunner and Hart candidate Connor Hellebuyck. After posting a .924 SV% and a 2.02 GAA in 62 appearances, can he replicate those numbers in postseason play? In the Hellebuyck era, the Jets have only won a playoff series when he records a save percentage above .920.

The Stars and Avs would likely end up being a second- or third-round matchup in a conference-based playoff format compared to the current divisional one. Perhaps no series has a more compelling storyline to open up the playoffs. Forget the Mikko Rantanen bowl – Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog is trending toward a Game 1 return after missing nearly three years with right knee issues. Dallas, of course, will have to stop the Avs’ retooled offense, now featuring Charlie Coyle, Martin Nečas, and Brock Nelson, without star defenseman Miro Heiskanen to start the series and potentially for the entire first round. That’s in contrast to a Colorado skater core trending toward being fully healthy to begin the postseason. There is a risk for both of these clubs meeting so early on in the playoffs, though – can they get through this series and have enough energy left to spend on three more in their pursuit of the Cup?

On the Pacific side, the Knights are coming off their fifth division title in eight years as they begin their chase for their second Stanley Cup. Unlike past years, there was no deadline spending spree. Reacquiring 2023 Stanley Cup champion and Original Misfit Reilly Smith was their only move, along with signing free agent Brandon Saad mid-season. Amid injuries to core players Mark Stone and Shea Theodore, and even after losing multiple key names on the UFA market last summer, Vegas has chugged along with the league’s sixth-ranked offense and fourth-ranked defense. They continue to control play at 5-on-5, have one of the league’s best power plays, and have gotten strong play out of starter Adin Hill. Will breakout goal-scoring efforts from players like Pavel Dorofeyev and Brett Howden hold up to give Vegas enough secondary scoring to make their third Stanley Cup Final appearance?

They’ll first have to unseat the Wild in the first round. Minnesota has been a shell of itself in the second half of the season and only went 9-8-3 after the trade deadline. Their key to playing spoiler is the return of forward cornerstones Joel Eriksson Ek and Kirill Kaprizov from injury. The former has been spectacular since returning last week, closing the year with five goals in four games, including the game-tying goal that secured a point for the Wild last night and clinched their playoff berth. Filip Gustavsson is having a spectacular season between the pipes. While the Wild have bled low-danger chances at 5-on-5 this year, they’re still one of the better teams in the league at limiting quality looks against. They’ll need to keep games low-scoring for a chance at a Cinderella run.

For the fourth year in a row, the Kings and Oilers meet in the first round. This time, the former holds home ice advantage over the defending conference champions. Los Angeles is hot at the right time as they kick off the postseason and attempt to finally unseat Edmonton after a trio of series losses. They’re 17-4-0 since the trade deadline while outscoring opponents 80-39 – yes, that’s a 3.81 goals per game clip for a team that struggled to score for most of the season. Led by dueling 35-goal campaigns from Kevin Fiala and Adrian Kempe while trade deadline pickup Andrei Kuzmenko has fit like a glove with 17 points in 21 games, they may not have the franchise offensive talent Edmonton boasts, but they enter the series with a more mobile defense core and the clear edge in goaltending with 2022 Stanley Cup champion Darcy Kuemper having a renaissance season.

The Oilers will attempt to begin their journey toward a repeat Final appearance without their top two-way defenseman, Mattias Ekholm. He’s ruled out for the first round with an undisclosed injury and could even be done for the season. That forces Brett Kulak to step back into a top-four role on the blue line alongside Evan Bouchard, Darnell Nurse, and crucial deadline pickup Jake Walman to begin the postseason. Will a continued MVP performance from Leon Draisaitl be enough for them to crack the Kings?

PHR readers, tell us who you think will sit atop the Western Conference when all is said and done and vote in the poll below:

If the poll doesn’t show up for you, click here to vote.

Photos courtesy of Matt Marton-Imagn Images and Sergei Belski-Imagn Images.

Nikolaj Ehlers Out Week-To-Week With Foot Injury

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Jets winger Nikolaj Ehlers is out week-to-week with the foot injury he aggravated in a collision with an official against the Blackhawks on Saturday, head coach Scott Arniel said today (via Ken Wiebe of the Winnipeg Free Press).

Ehlers’ status for the beginning of Winnipeg’s first-round series against the second wild card in the Western Conference is now highly doubtful. A week-to-week designation likely sidelines him for the first two games of the series at the very least, although that timeline this late in the regular season could keep him out for the entire first round – or even longer.

That’s a humongous blow to the President’s Trophy winners as they attempt to win their first playoff series since 2021. Ehlers, a perennial top-six producer despite receiving less-than-expected deployment, ranks third on the Jets in scoring with 24-39–63 in 69 games. He also missed a stretch of games earlier in the year with a lower-body injury. It’s the third time in four seasons Ehlers has missed at least 10 games due to injury.

Ehlers’ performance this season is the second-best of his career on a per-game basis, and it also comes in the final season of his seven-year, $42MM contract. Might the pending unrestricted free agent have played his final regular-season game in Winnipeg? He’ll look to at least get back to that production if the Jets can win enough playoff games without him to extend his season, building on what’s been an extremely underwhelming playoff reputation so far in his career. The 29-year-old has just four goals in 37 career postseason outings.

Luckily, the Jets may not be down a pair of top-six fixtures when their postseason begins. Arniel also said that top-line winger Gabriel Vilardi has been upgraded to day-to-day as he nears a return from the upper-body injury that’s kept him out since March 23. Like Ehlers, he’s a member of the 60-point club with a career-best 27-34–61 stat line in 71 showings. He spent the year stapled to Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele and will return to that role when he gets back in the lineup, whether that’s in their final regular-season game tomorrow against the Ducks, Game 1 of the playoffs, or later in their first-round series.

It’s still a big bite out of the league’s third-ranked offense and will mean one of Alex Iafallo or Nino Niederreiter remains elevated in a top-six role when the postseason begins, even if Vilardi is cleared to play. Ehlers also has the best possession impacts of any qualified Winnipeg forward, with a 53.3 CF% and +10.1 expected rating at even strength.

Toninato Recalled From Manitoba

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  • The Jets announced (Twitter link) that they’ve recalled center Dominic Toninato from AHL Manitoba. He’s taking the place of Nikolaj Ehlers on the roster after he exited Saturday’s game following a collision with a linesman.  Toninato has been held off the scoresheet in four games with Winnipeg while adding 18 goals and 18 assists in 60 appearances with the Moose.

Jets’ Prospect Chaz Lucius Announces Retirement

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In an unfortunate announcement from Newport Sports Management Inc., Winnipeg Jets’ prospect Chaz Lucius is retiring from hockey due to medical concerns.

The announcement shared a statement from Chaz, where he openly shared his recent Ehlers-Danlos Syndrome diagnosis. In the statement, Chaz wrote,

“It is with great disappointment that I am announcing my retirement from playing professional hockey. Recently, I was diagnosed with Ehlers-Danlos Syndrome (EDS) which is a hereditary disorder that affects the connective tissue that stabilizes and supports the joints and organs throughout the body. As I struggled with incurring and recovering from various joint injuries over the past several years, I had thought I was just unlucky. With this diagnosis of EDS, I now realize that my body impacted by EDS could not handle the physical nature of playing hockey. Given this condition, my injury history, and the physical nature of hockey, I have been medically advised not to continue to play.“

In response, the Jets put out an immediate press release saying,

“After much discussion and consultation with Chaz, his representatives, and medical professionals, the Winnipeg Jets Hockey Club fully supports his difficult decision to retire. Chaz’s condition and struggles with Ehlers-Danlos Syndrome (EDS) put him at risk of injury if he continues to play at the professional level, so we understand his choice. We wish Chaz all the best in his efforts to be an advocate for those dealing with EDS and hope for a bright future in front of him.“

Winnipeg selected Lucius with the 18th overall selection of the 2021 NHL Draft after an impressive few years with the United States National Team Development Program (USNTD). During his draft season, Lucius scored 13 goals and 18 points in 12 games playing for the USHL’s USNTD program and another 13 goals and 20 points in 13 games with the U.S. National U18 team.

He spent one year with the heralded University of Minnesota, scoring nine goals and 19 points in 24 contests with a +5 rating. Unfortunately, the Golden Gophers were eliminated in the Regional Finals of the National Tournament to in-state rival, Minnesota State University.

That was the end of Lucius’s time as a top prospect with Winnipeg. As he alluded to in his statement, Lucius has suffered a string of injuries over the last several years that have limited him to only 54 contests with the AHL’s Manitoba Moose since the 2022-23 season. Still, when healthy, Lucius was an effective secondary scorer, managing seven goals and 27 points.

There should understandably be some grace for Lucius when it comes to his inability to stay healthy during that stretch. Had he remained healthy throughout his professional career, the generic wear-and-tear that comes with professional ice hockey could have led to some long-standing physical issues when it comes to Ehlers-Danlos Syndrome.

Although it’s not the path he likely envisioned for himself, we at PHR send our congratulations to Lucius for being one of the rare few able to play even one game of professional hockey in North America and wish him the best for his next chapter.

Jets Notes: Ehlers, Vilardi, Pionk, Miller, Kupari

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Jets winger Nikolaj Ehlers will be a game-time decision against the Blues tonight, head coach Scott Arniel told Mitchell Clinton of the team’s official site. The 29-year-old is day-to-day with a foot injury and sat out Saturday’s 4-1 loss as a result. He left their previous game, a win over the Golden Knights on Thursday, after taking a shot to the foot in the first period – returning only to leave for a second time in the third period after a shot from teammate Cole Perfetti inadvertently hit him in the knee. Such a short-term absence is welcome news for a Winnipeg forward group already down Gabriel Vilardi and Rasmus Kupari (more on them later) as they try to stave off the Capitals for the President’s Trophy and the Stars for the Western Conference and Central Division titles.

Ehlers’ health will be a crucial factor in winning those races and, ideally, multiple playoff series. The Danish forward is having one of the better seasons of his 10-year career, placing third on the team in scoring with 24-39–63 through 67 games. That’s despite continued inexplicably limited deployment by Arniel – among players with 60 or more points this season, Ehlers’ 15:56 ATOI ranks last. He’s one of just four players to hit the mark while averaging under 17 minutes per game. This spring is also an important one for Ehlers to rebuild his damaged postseason reputation. While he’s produced 0.77 points per game over his regular-season career, he’s clicked at just a 0.38 points per game rate in the playoffs (4-10–14 in 37 GP).

As for Vilardi, Arniel said the first-line fixture has returned to the team and will return to practice soon. The 25-year-old hasn’t played since sustaining an upper-body injury on March 23, missing Winnipeg’s last six games. They’ve managed to go 4-2-0 without him in what marked their first games of the campaign without his services. He’s lined up with Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele in all 71 of his appearances this season and has shattered his previous career-high in points, logging a 27-34–61 scoring line in his second season in Manitoba. He’s also averaging a career-high 18:08 per game. It remains unclear if he’ll return for any of the Jets’ final five regular-season games, but the statement bodes well for his availability for Game 1 of an increasingly likely first-round date with the Wild.

The Jets aren’t just banged up on offense. They’ve also been without second-pair defenseman Neal Pionk since March 14 with a lower-body injury. He remains week-to-week but skated in practice today with the extras, per Clinton. That indicates his return is ahead of Vilardi’s, and he could very well get a couple of games of action before the playoffs to get back to game pace. The pending unrestricted free agent has 9-28–37 in 66 games from the Winnipeg blue line, the second-highest offensive production of his career. He boasts a career-best +21 rating while averaging over 22 minutes per contest, improving his possession play to reestablish himself as the Jets’ unquestionable No. 2 defenseman behind Josh Morrissey.

He won’t be returning against St. Louis, though, and they may be down an additional rearguard in veteran Colin Miller. He wasn’t at practice this morning and will be a game-time decision due to illness, Arniel said. With Pionk out, the depth piece has skated in 11 straight contests. He has 4-10–14 with a +11 rating in 59 appearances after re-signing with the Jets on a two-year, $3MM deal last offseason, missing time with a fractured larynx back in January.

Arniel also said Kupari skated before practice today as the 25-year-old pivot remains in concussion protocol. He’s played just three times since the beginning of last month, sustaining a concussion against the Isles on March 4. He exited protocols after three games but remained on the sidelines as a healthy scratch until March 25 against the Capitals. He had a setback in his post-concussion symptoms after that contest and will remain unavailable for a sixth straight contest tonight as a result. He’s posted 5-3–8 in 59 contests while winning 52.5% of his draws.

Jets Sign Kieron Walton To Entry-Level Contract

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The Jets have signed forward Kieron Walton to his entry-level contract, Murat Ates of The Athletic reported Sunday night. PuckPedia adds his three-year deal carries a cap hit of $858,333 and begins next season. His deal carries the minimum base salary of $775K throughout and includes a signing bonus and minors salary of $80K in 2025-26 before jumping to $85K each for the final two years of the contract.

Walton, 19 later this month, is coming off a major breakout season with the Sudbury Wolves of the Ontario Hockey League. The 6’6″, 212-lb playmaker more than doubled last year’s offensive production, leading the Wolves in scoring with 38-54–92 in 66 games. He added a goal and four assists in four playoff games as Sudbury was swept out of the first round of the OHL playoffs by the Kingston Frontenacs.

Selected in the sixth round (No. 187) of last year’s draft, Walton is undoubtedly one of the biggest risers year-over-year – not just in Winnipeg’s prospect pool but league-wide as well. A natural center who can shift to the left wing, the Toronto native finished ninth in the OHL in scoring this year, having better offensive showings than fellow 2024 draft class members like Oilers first-rounder Sam O’Reilly. Walton ranked as the No. 4 prospect in the Jets’ system in Scott Wheeler of The Athletic’s midseason rankings, notably ahead of plateauing first-rounders Chaz Lucius and Colby Barlow.

With names like Barlow (2023, No. 18 overall) and Lucius (2021, No. 18 overall) more uncertain than ever as impact contributors down the line, it’s important for Winnipeg’s scouting staff to hit on a few later-round picks to keep some youth infusion coming during their playoff contention window. Early returns suggest that’s what’s happened with Walton, who could make his professional debut by joining AHL Manitoba for the stretch run of the 2024-25 season. He’ll remain ineligible for a full-time AHL assignment next season but could see full-time duties with the Moose beginning in 2026-27.

As such, Walton’s contract is slide-eligible for 2025-26. If he plays fewer than 10 NHL games next season, the contract will begin in 2026-27 instead and run through the 2028-29 campaign. He’s still owed his $80K signing bonus for 2025-26 in that event, lowering the cap hit of the deal to $831,667 when it goes into effect. In either scenario, he’ll be a restricted free agent upon expiry and isn’t eligible for unrestricted free agency until the summer of 2033.

Ehlers Day-To-Day, Could Play Tonight

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  • It appears that Jets winger Nikolaj Ehlers has avoided serious injury after blocking two shots off his foot on Thursday as Paul Friesen of the Winnipeg Sun relays that Ehlers is listed as day-to-day and could play tonight against Utah. In the final year of his contract leading to UFA eligibility for the first time this summer, Ehlers is one point shy of his career-high in points and has 24 goals and 39 assists through 67 games this season.  With Winnipeg slipping a bit and Dallas on a run, they’ll need Ehlers back quickly to help them try to hold onto top spot in the division.

Luke Schenn A Game-Time Decision

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  • Winnipeg Jets’ analyst Mitchell Clinton reported earlier that defenseman Luke Schenn is a game-time decision against the Los Angeles Kings. Clinton didn’t allude to the specifics regarding Schenn, but he did mention that Schenn left early from the team’s morning skate. Should he miss tonight’s contest, the Jets will likely contextualize Schenn’s absence after the game.

    [SOURCE LINK]

Driedger And Anderson-Dolan Recalled From Manitoba

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  • The Jets announced (Twitter link) that they’ve recalled center Jaret Anderson-Dolan and goaltender Chris Driedger from AHL Manitoba. Anderson-Dolan is up after Rasmus Kupari suffered a setback in his recovery from a concussion, while Driedger will cover for Eric Comrie, whose wife went into labor over the weekend.  This is Anderson-Dolan’s second recall of the season but he didn’t play in the first one.  He has 19 points in 51 games with the Moose this season.  Meanwhile, Driedger was acquired from Florida near the trade deadline, combining to make 25 appearances between their farm team and Manitoba, playing to a 3.03 GAA and a .877 SV%.

Rasmus Kupari Suffers Concussion Setback

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  • Although he returned from concussion protocol a few days ago, Winnipeg Jets’ color analyst, Mitchell Clinton, reports forward Rasmus Kupari has suffered a setback and will miss the next few days. It’s been another difficult year for the former 20th overall pick of the 2018 NHL Draft, who’s registered five goals and three assists in 59 games for the Jets. Still, it’s an improvement over last year’s numbers, when Kupari tallied only one assist in 28 contests.

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