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Vezina Finalists Announced; Is The Evaluation Process Flawed?

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The NHL has announced the three finalists for the Vezina Award, given each year to the league’s best goaltender, as voted on by the league’s general managers. Vying for the trophy at the NHL Awards in Las Vegas this June will be the Winnipeg Jets’ Connor Hellebuyck, the Nashville Predators’ Pekka Rinne, and the Tampa Bay Lightning’s Andrei Vasilevskiy. This is the first nomination for Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy, while Rinne has previously been up for the award three times.

At first glance, the three nominees are not surprising. All three have had great seasons and are clearly among the top goaltenders in the league. However, hockey analytics guru Rob Vollman makes a pretty good case for why the evaluation process my be flawed. As Vollman points out, the only category in which the trio were tops in the league is wins, a statistic based entirely off of team performance, not individual performance. Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy led the league with 44 wins, while Rinne was right behind with 42.  Yet, only Rinne was top three in the league among goalies with 41+ starts in save percentage, quality starts percentage, and goals saved above average, Vollman’s stats of choice. By those standards of evaluation, Vasilevskiy should have been nowhere near Vezina contention. Instead, Vollman’s poster boy for proper evaluation is the Anaheim Ducks’ John Gibson, who was a top-four finisher in each of those three categories and a top-ten finisher in wins. Also garnering some more attentions should have been the Vegas Golden Knights’ Marc-Andre Fleury and the Arizona Coyotes’ Antti Raanta, both of whom were excellent statistically, but lacked the number of starts and wins that are apparently requisite for Vezina contention in today’s NHL.

It’s no surprise that the three contenders for best goaltender are who they are. However, that doesn’t mean it’s correct, especially in a season so many other obvious choices. General managers surely do not evaluate goalies based on wins alone when evaluating them for acquisition, so why does a clearly-flawed statistic hold so much weight in the Vezina race? It’s a question worth asking and Vollman’s reaction, as well as others’, may change the voting results come next season. In the meantime, look for Rinne to finally take home the hardware this year in his fourth try, a result that was likely even with proper evaluation.

Injury Notes: Hornqvist, Couturier, Jets

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The Pittsburgh Penguins will have Kris Letang in the lineup despite missing practice as a “maintenance day” but won’t be as lucky with Patric Hornqvist. The high-energy winger is out for Game 4 against the Philadelphia Flyers and has been listed as day-to-day with an upper-body injury.

Hornqvist has three points in the first three games for the Penguins, and is an integral part of their powerplay unit as the net front presence. The team certainly has enough firepower to get by without him, but any loss to their forward group will test the depth of the lower lines.

Winnipeg Jets Recall Sami Niku From AHL

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Fresh off being named the AHL’s most outstanding defenseman, Sami Niku could get his first taste of the NHL playoffs. The Winnipeg Jets have recalled the defenseman ahead of Game 4 tonight against the Minnesota Wild as they deal with an injury to Tyler Myers.

Niku, 21, has dominated in his first taste of North American professional hockey, registering 54 points in 76 AHL games and even scoring in his single NHL contest. The seventh-round pick is one of the best puck-moving defensemen in the minor leagues, and is set to make an impact in the NHL before long.

The Manitoba Moose start a playoff series on Saturday, which could be enough time for Myers to return so that Niku can go back down. The Jets are cautiously optimistic about their big defenseman, though there’s no clear return set. Even without Niku, the Moose are a powerhouse that could be capable of taking home the Calder Cup in the AHL, but will have to get through the defending champion Grand Rapids Griffins in the first round.

Injury Notes: Burakovsky, Myers, Komarov

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The Washington Capitals are down 2-0 in their first round series after two heartbreaking overtime losses on home ice, and now they have injury trouble to deal with as well. Andre Burakovsky will be out at least two games with an upper-body injury and is not travelling with the team to Columbus.

Burakovsky didn’t take the step forward that many had hoped for this season, registering just 25 points in 56 games while dealing with injury. The 23-year old first-round pick has now failed to crack 20 goals or 40 points in each of his first four seasons, while suiting up for just 252 games. Washington will have to try and climb out of the hole without him, a tough task as they head on the road to an arena that smells blood.

  • The Winnipeg Jets wouldn’t offer a real update on Tyler Myers’ status after leaving yesterday’s game with an apparently lower-body injury. Head coach Paul Maurice instead deferred to Ken Wiebe of the Winnipeg Sun for an update, who jokingly announced Myers to be day-to-day. Maurice disagrees with the decision that Marcus Foligno’s hit on Myers isn’t worth supplementary discipline, but wouldn’t go further on his thoughts regarding it. If Myers is forced from the lineup, Tucker Poolman could draw in for the Jets as they look to bounce back from a 6-2 loss.
  • The Toronto Maple Leafs will go without Leo Komarov in tonight’s matchup with the Boston Bruins, after the veteran forward suffered a lower-body injury in Game 2. That means, when combined with the absence of Nazem Kadri who is still serving his three-game suspension, that Tomas Plekanec will suddenly be promoted to the second line. Plekanec will center Patrick Marleau and Mitch Marner in an attempt to slow down the Boston offense, which has scored 12 goals in two games and dominated the Maple Leafs in scoring chances. Komarov could be back for Thursday’s tilt, but head coach Mike Babcock couldn’t confirm his status either way.

AHL Calder Cup Playoff Matchups

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Yesterday, the AHL season came to a close and 16 teams advanced to the Calder Cup Playoffs. Though it’s not exactly like a Stanley Cup pursuit, the AHL playoffs are a battleground created specifically to test the mettle of young players, while providing a chance for glory to veterans who may not get another opportunity in the NHL.

Below are the eight matchups, with some interesting storylines to watch in each one:

All times CST

Lehigh Valley Phantoms (Philadelphia) vs Providence Bruins (Boston)

Game 1 – Fri. Apr 20, 2018 – 7:05PM | LV @ PRO
Game 2 – Sat. Apr 21, 2018 – 7:05PM | LV @ PRO
Game 3 – Fri. Apr 27, 2018 – 7:05PM | PRO @ LV
Game 4 – Sat. Apr 28, 2018 – 7:05PM | PRO @ LV
Game 5 – Mon. Apr 30, 2018 – 7:05PM | PRO @ LV

While the Flyers and Bruins do battle in their respective NHL playoff series, their AHL affiliates will take each other on in the first round. Phil Varone, fresh off winning league MVP, will try to lead the Phantoms all the way to the Calder Cup finals. He’ll have to go through the previous MVP to do it, as Kenny Agostino heads a diverse Bruins attack.

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins (Pittsburgh) vs Charlotte Checkers (Carolina)

Game 1 – Fri. Apr 20, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  WBS  @  CHA
Game 2 – Sat. Apr 21, 2018 – 5:00PM  |  WBS  @  CHA
Game 3 – Thu. Apr 26, 2018 – 6:05PM  |  CHA  @  WBS
Game 4 – Sat. Apr 28, 2018 – 6:05PM  |  CHA  @  WBS
Game 5 – Sun. Apr 29, 2018 – 2:05PM  |  CHA  @  WBS

Daniel Sprong was the top scorer for the WBS Penguins this season, recording 65 points in 65 games. That kind of production is excellent from anyone, but Sprong is in just his first full season of professional hockey and looks poised to make the jump to the NHL before long. Charlotte has their own talented offensive piece though in Lucas Wallmark, who had 55 points in just 45 AHL contests between NHL call-ups.

Toronto Marlies (Toronto) vs Utica Comets (Vancouver)

Game 1 – Sat. Apr 21, 2018 – 3:00PM  |  UTI  @  TOR
Game 2 – Sun. Apr 22, 2018 – 3:00PM  |  UTI  @  TOR
Game 3 – Wed. Apr 25, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  TOR  @  UTI
Game 4 – Fri. Apr 27, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  TOR  @  UTI
Game 5 – Sun. Apr 29, 2018 – 3:00PM  |  UTI  @  TOR

Toronto had the best goaltending in the league en route to a historically dominant season, but if there was a team that could match them in net it would be Utica. Thatcher Demko put up a .922 save percentage as the absolute MVP of a relatively average Comets team, and could end up stealing a series if the Marlies aren’t careful.

Syracuse Crunch (Tampa Bay) vs Rochester Americans (Buffalo)

Game 1 – Fri. Apr 20, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  RCH  @  SYR
Game 2 – Sat. Apr 21, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  RCH  @  SYR
Game 3 – Wed. Apr 25, 2018 – 6:05PM  |  SYR  @  RCH
Game 4 – Fri. Apr 27, 2018 – 6:05PM  |  SYR  @  RCH
Game 5 – Sat. Apr 28, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  RCH  @  SYR

Though the Buffalo Sabres didn’t have much fun this season, but their affiliate is headed back to the playoffs for the first time in four years. If the Sabres want to build a different culture for their organization and expose their young players to the idea of winning, having Rochester go deep in the playoffs is the first start. They’ll have to topple one of the league’s best teams to do it, as Syracuse is still loaded with future NHL talent.

Chicago Wolves (Vegas) vs Rockford IceHogs (Chicago)

Game 1 – Sat. Apr 21, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  RFD  @  CHI
Game 2 – Sun. Apr 22, 2018 – 3:00PM  |  CHI  @  RFD
Game 3 – Thu. Apr 26, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  RFD  @  CHI
Game 4 – Sun. Apr 29, 2018 – 3:00PM  |  CHI  @  RFD
Game 5 – Mon. Apr 30, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  RFD  @  CHI

You could call this this All-Chicago series, as Blackhawks prospects will take on the Wolves in a series that spans only about 75 miles. Though technically the Vegas Golden Knights’ affiliate, the Wolves still house several players from the St. Louis Blues including Beau Bennett, who put up 57 points in 60 games this year.

Grand Rapids Griffins (Detroit) vs Manitoba Moose (Winnipeg)

Game 1 – Sat. Apr 21, 2018 – 1:00PM  |  GR  @  MB
Game 2 – Sun. Apr 22, 2018 – 1:00PM  |  GR  @  MB
Game 3 – Wed. Apr 25, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  MB  @  GR
Game 4 – Thu. Apr 26, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  MB  @  GR
Game 5 – Mon. Apr 30, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  MB  @  GR

If you think the Winnipeg Jets are good, just wait until the next wave of talent comes up from Manitoba. Sami Niku was named the league’s top defenseman, while Mason Appleton earned Rookie of the Year honors. Both will be on full display when they take on the reigning Calder Cup Champion Griffins.

Tucson Roadrunners (Arizona) vs San Jose Barracuda (San Jose)

Game 1 – Thu. Apr 19, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  TUC  @  SJ
Game 2 – Sat. Apr 21, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  TUC  @  SJ
Game 3 – Wed. Apr 25, 2018 – 6:05PM  |  SJ  @  TUC
Game 4 – Fri. Apr 27, 2018 – 6:05PM  |  SJ  @  TUC
Game 5 – Sat. Apr 28, 2018 – 6:05PM  |  SJ  @  TUC

Like the Americans, the Roadrunners will try to make up for their NHL parent team’s failures this season. The Coyotes minor league team got a huge boost when Dylan Strome was returned, perhaps for the last time in his professional career. Strome is expected to make the jump to the NHL next season, and could put a stamp on what has been a solid year with a long playoff run.

Texas Stars (Dallas) vs Ontario Reign (Los Angeles) 

Game 1 – Thu. Apr 19, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  ONT  @  TEX
Game 2 – Fri. Apr 20, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  ONT  @  TEX
Game 3 – Sun. Apr 22, 2018 – 2:00PM  |  TEX  @  ONT
Game 4 – Tue. Apr 24, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  TEX  @  ONT
Game 5 – Mon. Apr 30, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  ONT  @  TEX

If the Los Angeles Kings bow out quickly enough we could see the Reign get a boost for their playoff chances, as Michael Amadio, Paul Ladue, Jonny Brodzinski and Oscar Fantenberg are all eligible for the AHL playoffs. The Kings could be eliminated as soon as tomorrow night, meaning the Reign could welcome back several key names for Game 1.

Snapshots: Appleton, Goaltenders, Turgeon

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Mason Appleton has been named the AHL Rookie of the Year, joining teammate Sami Niku as a Winnipeg Jets prospect with an individual trophy. Appleton was also named to the All-Rookie and First All-Star Teams after a huge season with the Manitoba Moose. The sixth-round pick recorded 63 points in his first professional season, leading the Moose to one of the league’s best records.

Appleton is just another example of the fine draft and development work the Jets have accomplished over the last few years. Though there is no guarantee he will find success at the NHL level, getting any sixth round pick to perform this well in the AHL is an organizational accomplishment.

  • The Washington Capitals have recalled Pheonix Copley to serve as their third goaltender for tonight’s game. Philipp Grubauer is set to start, and Copley will only be called upon if someone gets injured in warm-up. Similarly, the San Jose Sharks have recalled Antoine Bibeau for the same reason. Teams almost always carry a third goaltender in the playoffs, to avoid a Scott Foster situation where an amateur is forced into the net.
  • Dominic Turgeon won’t be available for the Grand Rapids Griffins for some time, as the team announced that the Detroit Red Wings prospect has been diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome. It caused a blood clot in his arm, but after a procedure yesterday and another today he is expected to make a full recovery. Turgeon, the son of former player and Los Angeles Kings assistant coach Pierre Turgeon, made his NHL debut this season for the Red Wings.

Winnipeg Jets Recall Jamie Phillips From AHL

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In preparation for their first round playoff matchup against the Minnesota Wild, the Winnipeg Jets have recalled goaltender Jamie Phillips from the AHL. Teams often carry three goaltenders in the playoffs in order to avoid a Scott Foster situation, but it’s unlikely that Phillips ever sees the ice.

With Eric Comrie and Michael Hutchinson manning the crease for the Manitoba Moose as they head towards the playoffs, Phillips wasn’t going to see a ton of time even in the AHL. That’s not because he doesn’t deserve it though, as the 25-year old has played well in his limited opportunities this season.

Splitting between the ECHL and AHL, Phillips actually carries a .912 save percentage in the higher league. Though that’s not world-beating, it is an impressive performance for a seventh-round pick who is in just his second year of professional hockey. Phillips starred at Michigan Tech before that, and has been solid organizational depth for the Jets the past two seasons.

Poll: Who Will Be Western Conference Champions?

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The NHL Playoffs kick off tomorrow night with three first round matchups. The Minnesota Wild head to Winnipeg to take on the Jets, the Pittburgh Penguins welcome in their rival Philadelphia Flyers, and the Vegas Golden Knights host the first playoff game in franchise history when they take on the Los Angeles Kings. All three should be exceptional games, featuring superstars and underrated talents.

By Thursday evening, all eight series will have started and the first round will truly be underway.

So who do you think comes out of it all? This year more than ever the conferences seem wide open, with several teams built to be real contenders for the Stanley Cup. Even with weaker records, some of the lower seeds have the ability to catch fire for a few weeks, while injuries can always upset the favorites. Vote below on who you think will win the Western Conference, and explain why in the comment section. Will the Predators head back to the Finals for the second year in a row? Is it another long playoff run for Joe Thornton (when he returns) and the Sharks? Can the Anze Kopitar and the Kings score enough to shock the world again?

Who will be Western Conference Champions?
Nashville Predators 35.89% (375 votes)
Winnipeg Jets 18.09% (189 votes)
Vegas Golden Knights 11.39% (119 votes)
Los Angeles Kings 10.81% (113 votes)
San Jose Sharks 7.18% (75 votes)
Anaheim Ducks 6.89% (72 votes)
Minnesota Wild 6.32% (66 votes)
Colorado Avalanche 3.44% (36 votes)
Total Votes: 1,045

[Mobile users click here to vote!]

Minor League Notes: Niku, Elie, Oilers

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Sami Niku’s season is just getting better, as today the AHL announced that he has been named the league’s top defenseman for the 2017-18 season. Niku had already been named to the All-Rookie and First All-Star Team, after recording 53 points in 73 games. His first year of professional hockey in North America couldn’t have gone any better—unless of course the Manitoba Moose win the Calder Cup—as he even scored his first NHL goal in the one game he played for the Winnipeg Jets.

Niku was selected in the seventh round three years ago, and is now the youngest player to ever take home top defenseman honors in the AHL. After playing well at every level so far, you can pencil him into a roster spot with the Jets in the coming years. That’s another hit for their draft and development systems, that have started to churn out NHL talent at a ridiculous rate.

  • Remi Elie has been sent back to the AHL for the Texas Stars playoff run, after a successful rookie campaign with the Dallas Stars. Elie recorded 14 points in 72 games, and will now get a chance to show off in the minor leagues. Never an elite scoring talent, Elie will nevertheless be an offensive weapon for Texas, who are currently staring at a first round series with the Tucson Roadrunners. The second-round pick from 2013 won’t be waiver exempt again next season, meaning this might be his last chance to really contribute in the minor leagues for the Dallas organization.
  • Similarly, the Edmonton Oilers have sent both Ethan Bear and Keegan Lowe back to the AHL to help the Bakersfield Condors in their last few matchups. Bear got into 18 games with the Oilers down the stretch, and could be a potential option for the team next season when they are looking for puck-moving right-handed defensmen. For now, both will focus on improving their play in the last few games of the AHL season and putting in an offseason of training.

Minor Transactions: 4/8/18

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With the Eastern Conference still undecided until today’s final regular season game, the Western Conference has no questions as the Colorado Avalanche finished off the St. Louis Blues in a 5-2 victory Saturday as they clinched the final playoff spot. The Nashville Predators got the top spot and will face the Avalanche. In other first-round matchups, the Vegas Golden Knights will face the Los Angeles Kings, the Anaheim Ducks will face the San Jose Sharks and the Minnesota Wild will face the Winnipeg Jets. 

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