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Arbitration Awards Andrew Copp Two-Year Deal

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Andrew Copp is the first player to earn an arbitration ruling this year, following his hearing on Sunday. The arbitrator has awarded a two-year contract carrying an average annual value of $2.28MM. The Winnipeg Jets decided on the length and were looking for a $1.5MM AAV, while Copp filed for $2.9MM. Read our breakdown of the case right here. Copp will still be a restricted free agent at the end of the deal.

While the deal is a reasonable amount for the 25-year old Copp, it takes just another chunk out of a Winnipeg payroll that has to find a way to fit in new contracts for Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor. They’re now sitting at just under $17.6MM in cap space for a roster of 17 players, which means long-term deals may not be possible depending on the asking price of their star RFAs. That cap crunch limited their ability to spend in free agency, meaning Jacob Trouba, Tyler Myers and Ben Chiarot have all departed their blue line without many replacements coming in. Neal Pionk, Sami Niku and others will have to fill those roles.

This decision is also the final arbitration case that the Jets had, meaning a short buyout window will open in three days. The team could potentially buyout a player that has a cap hit of more than $3.45MM and was on their reserve list at the most recent trade deadline. There aren’t any names that stand out as candidates, though the team may obviously have different plans. Other names like Mathieu Perreault have been bandied about in trade speculation, though Kevin Cheveldayoff is one of the league’s most infrequent traders, completing just 36 in the near eight years he has been on the job.

Jets Sign Neal Pionk To A Two-Year Contract

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Winnipeg has agreed to terms with one of their remaining restricted free agents, announcing the re-signing of defenseman Neal Pionk to a two-year contract.  The deal will carry an AAV of $3MM.  Pionk was scheduled to go to arbitration on Wednesday but that hearing won’t be needed now.

Pionk was acquired from the Rangers last month (along with a first-round pick that was used on blueline prospect Ville Heinola) in exchange for defenseman Jacob Trouba.

The 23-year-old is coming off of his first full NHL season where he established himself as a capable top-four defender.  He posted six goals and 20 assists in 73 games while logging over 21 minutes of ice time per night.  He also ranked fourth on the Rangers in both blocks (98) and hits (138).

Pionk will likely be asked to play a similar role with Winnipeg although he’ll be playing behind Dustin Byfuglien on the right side of their back end.  The contract should serve as a reasonable bridge deal to see how he’ll fare with his new team and he will still be eligible for restricted free agency at its conclusion in 2021.  At that time, a long-term deal could be on the table if all goes well.

GM Kevin Cheveldayoff still has plenty of work to do this offseason though.  While he’ll find out the verdict on what center Andrew Copp’s new deal will be after going through his arbitration hearing, the Jets still need to re-sign wingers Kyle Connor and Patrik Laine who are among the group of high-quality talent in this year’s RFA class.  (Third-string goalie Eric Comrie is also in need of a new deal.)  Busy days are still ahead in Winnipeg.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Arbitration Breakdown: Andrew Copp

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Salary arbitration season is underway, as hearings were scheduled to begin on July 20th and extend through August 4th. While arbitration awards are very infrequent, with most cases settling beforehand, occasionally a binding decision is handed down by the arbitrator. What goes on behind closed doors before that point? The players, aided by their representation and the NHLPA, and their respective teams, aided by a select group of lawyers, each file at a certain salary over a one- or two-year term. The arbitrator may decide on any salary at or between those two points, based on the arguments in each sides’ written brief and oral presentation. While both sides will have themes to base their arguments on, rather than debate only the merits of the player, the bulk of the conversation in an arbitration hearing instead centers around comparable players. Each side will use a tailored group of statistical ranges, both career and platform year numbers, to show how the player compares to similar recent arbitration-eligible players. All statistics are available to use, but their persuasiveness is the key. The player side will look to show that the player is superior to a group of players at a salary lower than their filing number, while the team side will look to show that player is inferior to a group of players above their filing number. Whoever makes the most convincing argument will land the favorable decision.

After the Carolina Hurricanes and Brock McGinn settled this morning, just before their scheduled hearing, the Winnipeg Jets’ Andrew Copp became next in line. Ironically, he and McGinn are very similar players with very similar filing number midpoints in their cases. The Jets and Copp are farther apart than were the ’Canes and McGinn, and Copp’s agent has been open about intending to settle that dispute through arbitration, so a hearing is more likely than not. A Copp hearing would be very similar to what a McGinn hearing would have been, including many shared comparable players, now including McGinn. Here is a closer look at his case:

The Case of Andrew Copp

Career Statistics: 293 games played, 36 goals, 48 assists, 84 points, +55 rating
Platform Statistics: 69 games played, 11 goals, 14 assists, 25 points, +20 rating

Filing Numbers: Copp – One year, $2.9MM, Jets – Two years, $1.5MM (midpoint: $2.2MM)

Player Side

Themes:

  • Top-Nine Forward: among top nine Jets forwards in goals per game, assists per game, points per game, and total points in platform season; consistent improvement in scoring numbers every season
  • Key Defensive Player: led Jets forwards in plus/minus by wide margin; regular shorthanded role; strong face-off numbers

Potential Comparable Players:

Brock McGinn (2019)
Career Statistics: 240 games played, 36 goals, 40 assists, 76 points, -27 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games played, 10 goals, 16 assists, 26 points, +10 rating
Salary: $2.1MM

  • Player’s argument: very similar career offensive totals; Copp had better per game offensive numbers in the platform season; Copp has more experience; Copp has far superior career plus/minus; Copp is a center, valued more than winger
  • Team’s counter: McGinn has better career per-game scoring; McGinn has better defensive numbers – hits, blocked shots, takeaways, shorthanded ATOI

Johan Larsson (2019)
Career Statistics: 331 games played, 32 goals, 47 assists, 79 points, -49 rating
Platform Statistics: 73 games played, 6 goals, 8 assists, 14 points, -8 rating
Salary: $1.55MM

  • Player’s argument: Copp has far better offensive totals and per game numbers in platform season; Copp has better career offensive totals and per game numbers; Copp has far better career and platform plus/minus
  • Team’s counter: Larsson’s salary is considerably below midpoint; Larsson has more experience; Larsson has better defensive numbers – hits, blocked shots, takeaways, shorthanded ATOI

Team Side

Themes:

  • Not a Reliable Player: two seasons out of four with less than 70 games played due to injury; drop-off in ATOI in platform season; no role on power play, second penalty kill unit; scores in bunches, suffers droughts
  • Not a Key Defensive Player: outside top five Jets forwards in hits, blocked shots, and takeaways; fourth in total face-offs taken; one of seven Jets forwards with at least one minute of shorthanded ATOI; prone to turnovers

Potential Comparable Players:

Joel Armia (2019)
Career Statistics: 237 games, 39 goals, 42 assists, 81 points, -3 rating
Platform Statistics: 57 games, 13 goals, 10 assists, 23 points, even rating
Salary: $2.6MM

  • Team’s argument: Armia has far better career per game offensive numbers; Armia had far better per game offensive numbers in platform; similar defensive numbers; Armia creates turnovers, Copp prone to turning puck over
  • Player’s counter: Copp has more experience and more consistent games played; Copp is a center, valued more than a winger

Scott Laughton (2019)
Career Statistics: 272 games played, 31 goals, 48 assists, 79 points, -24 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games played, 12 goals, 20 assists, 32 points, -11 rating
Salary: $2.3MM

  • Team’s argument: Laughton had better platform season; Laughton is better defensive player – more face-offs, hits, blocked shots, shorthanded ATOI ; Laughton has been more consistent contributor
  • Player’s counter: very similar career offensive totals and per game numbers; Copp is superior goal scorer; Copp has far superior plus/minus; very similar age and size; same position and shot side

Prediction

This is not an exhaustive list of possible comparable players, but based on the player side and team side filing numbers and the resulting midpoint, this case is dead even. As similar as Copp is to McGinn, his side should be able to make a solid case that he is the better offensive player. In fact, Copp and Laughton are extremely similar offensive players and both sides could wind up using Laughton as a comparable player. That situation would greatly benefit Copp, as Laughton’s $2.3MM salary is on his side of the midpoint and there’s a fair case to be made that Copp is better goal-scorer than Laughton. Where Copp’s side could fall short is in emphasizing his defensive prowess, as he falls short against most comparable and several teammates. It’s hard to see Copp far surpassing Laughton or falling well below McGinn, so expect him to land a deal in the $2-2.35MM range.

Andrew Copp, Winnipeg Jets Exchange Arbitration Figures

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Second on the list of arbitration hearings scheduled for this summer is Andrew Copp of the Winnipeg Jets. The two sides exchanged figures prior to their hearing on Sunday, and according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet the player filed for a one-year deal at $2.9MM while the team is looking for a two-year contract at $1.5MM. In this case the team gets to choose the length of the award because Copp was the one who filed for arbitration. It is important to remember that not only can the two sides still negotiate a different deal in the time remaining (and even for a short period after the hearing), the arbitration decision also does not need to be one salary or the other. The award can (and usually does) fall somewhere in the middle of the submitted figures.

Copp only just turned 25 a few days ago, meaning he will be a restricted free agent at the end of even a two-year contract. The fourth-round pick has developed into a valuable depth piece for the Jets even if his offense still hasn’t progressed very far. Scoring 11 goals and 25 points in 69 games last season was the best rate of his NHL career, but his real worth lies on the penalty kill and in the corners where he is a strong possession player.

The question will be how the Jets can afford to keep him as a fourth-line player if he receives a decision anywhere near the $2.9MM he filed for. Though they still have nearly $23MM in cap room, Winnipeg has contracts still to sign with Kyle Connor and Patrik Laine which should likely total more than $15MM combined. That $23MM disappears fast given it is only based on a 15-player roster at the moment, and Neal Pionk is also due for an arbitration hearing next week. The Jets find themselves in real trouble after losing three key players from their blue line and will need a youngster like Jack Roslovic or Kristian Vesalainen to give them some real value on an entry-level deal.

Winnipeg Jets Renew ECHL Affiliation

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The Winnipeg Jets have renewed their partnership with the Jacksonville Icemen for the 2019-20 season, once again giving them an ECHL affiliate to help develop their prospects. The teams have been partnered for the last two seasons. Head coach Jason Christie has also been given a multi-year extension, keeping him in the Jets organization.

The Icemen—not to be confused with the ICE, the new junior hockey team in Winnipeg—made the ECHL playoffs last season after a 36-32-4 record in the regular season but were ousted quickly in round one. Like most other low minor teams, they housed several journeymen and plenty of raw prospects looking to develop their skills. Notably on the team was goaltender Mikhail Berdin, who is on his entry-level contract with the Jets after being selected in the 2016 draft. The ECHL is often a place for the organization’s goaltending prospects, giving them a chance to get game action against professionals on a nightly basis.

Christie meanwhile returns for his seventh season as the ECHL coach for Winnipeg, and is the all-time leader in league wins. He is still looking for his first Kelly Cup championship however, something the Icemen will try to bring home in 2020.

Poll: How Many Unresolved Arbitration Cases Will Require An Award?

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In the NHL, the salary arbitration process is more often used as a negotiating tool – an incentive to get a deal done before the uncomfortable setting of a hearing and the unknown of an arbitrator’s decision – than it is for its actual purpose. A vast majority of players who file for arbitration end up settling before their hearing or even at the last moment before an award is handed down. Last year, 44 players filed for arbitration and 40 settled prior to their hearing. The year before, all 30 cases were resolved before an arbitration award could be made.

So what about this year? There were initially 40 cases of player-elected arbitration and one case of team-elected arbitration (the St. Louis Blues and goalie Ville Husso), but that number is now down to 25 open cases. That’s a substantial drop-off, but time is running out for some RFA’s and their teams to come to terms, as the first scheduled hearing is set to take place on Saturday, July 20th. Listed below are all of the remaining cases:

July 20: Brock McGinn, Carolina Hurricanes
July 21: Andrew Copp, Winnipeg Jets
July 22: MacKenzie Weegar, Florida Panthers; Zach Aston-Reese, Pittsburgh Penguins; Ville Husso, St. Louis Blues; Christian Djoos, Washington Capitals
July 23: Evan Rodrigues, Buffalo Sabres
July 24: Oskar Sundqvist, St. Louis Blues; Neal Pionk, Winnipeg Jets
July 25: Jacob Trouba, New York Rangers
July 26: Colton Sissons, Nashville Predators
July 27: Sam Bennett, Calgary Flames
July 28: Mirco Mueller, New Jersey Devils
July 29: David Rittich, Calgary Flames; Pavel Buchnevich, New York Rangers
August 1: Remi Elie, Buffalo Sabres; Chandler Stephenson, Washington Capitals
August 2: Linus Ullmark, Buffalo Sabres; Charles Hudon, Montreal Canadiens; Will Butcher, New Jersey Devils
August 4: Jake McCabe, Buffalo Sabres; Anton Forsberg, Carolina Hurricanes; Sheldon Dries, Colorado Avalanche; Rocco Grimaldi, Nashville Predators; Joel Edmundson, St. Louis Blues

Given the time constraints and the complexity of each of these cases, how many will feel forced to go to hearing? Will Trouba be one of that select group, as he was last year? Will the Sabres struggle to settle four cases before their scheduled hearing dates? Will the Blues see through their team-elected case with Husso? Will other goalies prove to be difficult negotiations? And will polarizing players like Bennett and Buchnevich fail to find common ground with their teams? Or will it be under-the-radar players like Gemel Smith and Brett Kulak last year who go through the full process?

There are many questions left about this group of restricted free agents and time is running out before we know the answers. So the choice is yours: will we see an unprecedented class of arbitration awards or will all or most cases reach a resolution in the coming weeks?

How Many Unresolved Arbitration Cases Will Require An Award?
3-4 36.04% (200 votes)
5-6 25.05% (139 votes)
1-2 17.12% (95 votes)
9+ 10.27% (57 votes)
7-8 7.93% (44 votes)
None 3.60% (20 votes)
Total Votes: 555

[Mobile users click here to vote]

Winnipeg Jets Agree To Terms With Nelson Nogier

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The Winnipeg Jets have agreed to terms with Nelson Nogier on a one-year, two-way contract. The deal will carry a $700K salary in the NHL. Nogier was not eligible for salary arbitration and will still be a restricted free agent at the end of this contract.

Nogier, 23, played one game for the Jets last season but was a staple on the Manitoba Moose blueline, registering nine points in 74 games. The 6’2″ defenseman was a fourth-round pick in 2014 and has 11 NHL games under his belt, meaning he could be one of the first in line for a call-up this year now that the team’s depth has been sliced. Tyler Myers, Jacob Trouba and Ben Chiarot are all gone, leaving the Jets without a lot of room for injuries this season.

While a player like Logan Stanley may have an obvious upside advantage on Nogier, he wouldn’t necessarily be the first up if the Jets lose someone for a short period of time. Nogier will need to clear waivers at the beginning of the year in order to be sent down, and could very well be one of those players bouncing up and down as required for much of the season.

Ville Heinola Signs Entry-Level Contract

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The Winnipeg Jets have signed Ville Heinola to a three-year entry-level contract, after picking him in the first round of June’s draft. Heinola played last season in Finland’s top professional league and will end up back there this season if he doesn’t find a way to crack the Jets’ roster right away. That would mean his contract will slide forward at least one year and not kick in for the 2019-20 season.

What Heinola did last year as an undersized 17-year old defenseman was extremely impressive, suiting up not only at the highest level in Finland but also finding great success there. He registered 18 points in 41 games overall, while also competing internationally in the U18 and U20 World Junior Championships. The Finnish team took home the gold medal at the U20 tournament, where Heinola was a real contributor.

Even standing just 5’10” 176-lbs, the future looks bright for the cerebral defenseman. Heinola excels at moving the puck quickly out of trouble, making the right decision almost every single time to not only diffuse an opportunity in his own end but send his teammates the other way with control. That decision making ability proved strong enough to even compete against professionals and should let him quickly develop into a real option for the Jets.

Amazingly, that opportunity may present itself sooner than one would have thought just a year ago. The Jets’ blue line has been ravaged over the past few weeks, watching Tyler Myers and Ben Chiarot leave through free agency and trading Jacob Trouba to the New York Rangers. Though they did bring back Nathan Beaulieu on a one-year deal and have Neal Pionk still to sign, the team’s defensive depth is now razor thin. If Heinola can prove that he’s ready for the NHL there’s no reason why he couldn’t be competing for ice time very soon in Winnipeg.

Central Notes: Wild Physicality, Heinola, Boqvist

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Paul Fenton and the Minnesota Wild have made a lot of moves since the trade deadline last year and the general manager has started to put his mark on the franchise after taking over more than a year ago. However, one thing that many have noted is that the Wild have gotten much smaller over the last year with many wondering if that could affect the team’s success down the road.

The Athletic’s Michael Russo (subscription required) was asked that exact question in his most recent mailbag as the scribe notes that the Wild have traded off Charlie Coyle (6-foot-3) and Nino Niederreiter (6-foot-2), while getting back smaller, more finesse players in Kevin Fiala and Ryan Donato as the team seems to be without that physical edge that most teams feel they need to survive a 82-game season, something that the Stanley Cup champion St. Louis Blues had an abundance of this past year.

Russo admits it’s a concern, but the team does have a number of smaller players, who are physical, including newly acquired Ryan Hartman, Luke Kunin and the team’s hopes that Jordan Greenway will begin to use his size to be more physical.

  • While the Winnipeg Jets’ trade of Jacob Trouba has been panned by almost everyone, the Winnipeg Free Press’ Mike McIntyre writes that one aspect of the trade that many haven’t thought of is the value of the 2019 first-round pick they got along with unheralded defenseman Neal Pionk. The team selected defenseman Ville Heinola with the 20th pick in the draft as part of the deal. The blueliner almost immediately moves to the top of Winnipeg’s prospect list and could develop into a top-four option for years, although it could take a year or two until he arrives. Regardless, if Heinola does become a top-four regular and Pionk becomes a reliable option on defense as well, the deal doesn’t look that bad after all.
  • With the trade of Henri Jokiharju, the Chicago Blackhawks could find themselves with the potential need of a young player to step up for the team this season. NBC Sports Chicago’s Charlie Roumeliotis writes that  Adam Boqvist is expected to turn pro this year and is expected to play for the Rockford Ice Hogs in the AHL if he doesn’t make the Blackhawks’ team out of training camp. That’s good news for Chicago as Boqvist could have returned to the OHL for another year. The team’s first-round pick in 2018 (eighth-overall) scored 20 goals and 60 points in 54 games for the London Knights in his only season there.

Snapshots: Sabres, Gardiner, Tkachyov

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Few have criticized the Sabres’ side of the recent Henri Jokiharju–Alexander Nylander trade, but it’s a fact that Buffalo is overflowing with defenders after acquiring the young right-hander from the Chicago Blackhawks. As Lance Lysowski of The Buffalo News’ points out, the Sabres still have needs to fill up front and they could use their defensive depth to do so. Lysowski writes that Buffalo has ample cap space to make an addition at forward, but there are few ideal candidates left on the free agent market and the team may as well use their surplus of blue liners to swing a deal. Jokiharju is safe, as are fellow recent additions Brandon Montour and Colin Miller and 2017 No. 1 pick Rasmus Dahlin. RFA Jake McCabe is not likely to be dealt, but a potential candidate and injury-prone Zach Bogosian and overpaid veteran Matt Hunwick might be hard to move. That would seemingly leave Rasmus Ristolainen, a fixture on the rumor mill, Marco Scandella, and Casey Nelson as the most likely names to be dealt and it would not be a surprise if more than one ends up elsewhere. The Sabres are certainly not done making moves this summer.

  • Of course, this makes Buffalo just one of a surprising number of teams not biting on Jake Gardiner this summer. PHR’s top-ranked UFA defenseman, Gardiner remains unsigned more than a week after the market opened. NBC Sports’ Scott Billeck reports that Gardiner is seeking $7MM annually in his next year, which is likely pricing himself out of the range that many D-needy teams are looking for. It’s hard to argue that Gardiner was not the best available defenseman when free agency opened, but he’s also not a top-pair defenseman by most metrics and teams aren’t willing to shell out right now simply due to a weak market. Billeck names the Winnipeg Jets as a team that could use Gardiner, but can’t afford him at his current asking price. The Montreal Canadiens, Detroit Red Wings, and his own Toronto Maple Leafs also fit that description. Billeck feels the New Jersey Devils could be the leading candidate to land Gardiner right now, but there really aren’t many clear fits for the defender at this time unless he changes his expectations.
  • Despite flirting with a jump to the NHL for several years, Vladimir Tkachyov has decided to re-sign in the KHL once again. SKA St. Petersburg has announced an extension with the young scorer. Tkachyov, 23, has been a solid offensive contributor for the past several years but the best may still be yet to come. The winger was acquired by SKA last month from Salavat Yulaev Ufa for the rights to Nikita Soshnikov, who has since signed in Ufa, and Tkachyov could be set for some career-highs with the perennial contenders in St. Petersburg. It is a two-year contract with SKA, so Tkachyov has a couple more years to further prove he is a formidable forward, and could very well drawn NHL attention once again in 2021.

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