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Vancouver’s Looming Cap Crunch

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When you think of teams that are going to be hit hard by the anticipated flattening of the salary cap, Toronto and Tampa Bay typically come to mind and justifiably so.  They have top-heavy rosters and are going to have to clear some salary in the near future.  If St. Louis re-signs Alex Pietrangelo, they’ll be in that mix as well.

One team that doesn’t come to mind as quickly is Vancouver.  But the recent reports that the salary cap will remain unchanged for the next two seasons at $81.5MM is going to cause some problems for them both in the short term and long term.

On the surface, things don’t look too bad.  Per CapFriendly, they have nearly $63.5MM in commitments for next season to 14 players.  Having roughly $18MM left to fill out the roster isn’t great but it’s not terrible either.

But let’s chip away at that a little.  By virtue of needing LTIR for basically the entire season, they ended the season with minimal cap space which means any achieved bonuses from this season will be charged against the 2020-21 cap.  Postmedia’s Patrick Johnston provides some details about what was reached in that regard this season.  Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes both hit all of their $850K in ‘A’ bonuses so there’s an extra $1.7MM right there.  Now that cap space is down to $16.3MM.

The Canucks have three prominent unrestricted free agents this offseason that they’ll be looking to retain or replace.  Chief among those is Jacob Markstrom who has established himself as a capable starting goalie by making 160 starts over the past three seasons, compiling a 2.74 GAA with a ..914 save percentage over that span.  Accordingly, he’s going to get a raise on his current $3.67MM price tag even in this depressed marketplace whether it’s with Vancouver or another team on the lookout for a new starting netminder.  If they don’t re-sign him, they’ll still have to spend a similar amount to replace him with another starter so it’s safe to budget a sizable amount of their cap room for Markstrom or someone else.

Chris Tanev is a key part of Vancouver’s back end after spending the last decade there.  Given his injury history and limited production, he may not be able to get his current $4.45MM AAV on his next deal but it will take a few million to re-sign him as well.  Tyler Toffoli fit in quite well after being acquired from the Kings and they’d love to keep him around but with it not being the deepest of UFA classes up front, he may command at or more than his $4.6MM cap hit on his next deal.

Without even getting into their class of RFAs (highlighted by Jake Virtanen), the Canucks may have to chip away from their roster just to keep their team intact.  But that will be easier said than done.  With a lot of teams wanting or needing to do the same, the price to offload a contract should be steep and in Vancouver’s case, the deals they’d want to peddle (Sven Baertschi, Jay Beagle, Loui Eriksson, and Brandon Sutter) are ones that likely already carry negative value.  Micheal Ferland doesn’t have much value either after concussions cost him most of the season and if he’s healthy, they won’t have the ability to put him on LTIR.  They’re also not able to trade off their salary cap recapture penalty on Roberto Luongo’s deal which runs through 2021-22 at a tick over $3MM per year.

Fast forward to the 2021 offseason.  Pettersson and Hughes will be at the end of their entry-level deals and both project to land substantial raises based on how they’ve performed so far.  That will eat up the savings from their expiring contracts (headlined by Alex Edler, Sutter, and Tanner Pearson) quite quickly before even factoring in what it will cost to retain or replace the others.  That will have to be in the back of GM Jim Benning’s mind as he tries to navigate through the November free agent period and decide who to keep or let go from his current group.

Many teams are going to face some tough decisions as a result of this new marketplace but while Vancouver may not be the first team that comes to mind when you think of teams that may be in cap trouble soon, they’re certainly about to be a part of that group.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Who Do You Least Want To See Win The No. 1 Pick?

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If Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly’s face didn’t give it away during Friday night’s NHL Draft Lottery, this result was not what the league was expecting or hoping for. In a season when a decorated Original Six franchise, the Detroit Red Wings, had one of the worst campaigns of all-time and the league’s most downtrodden franchise, the Ottawa Senators, had not one but two high-percentage chances of winning the top pick, the No. 1 overall selection will instead go to a to-be-determined “playoff” team.

With the league expanding the postseason field to 24 teams this season as a result of COVID-19 cutting the regular season short, 16 teams will vie for a chance to move through a “knockout round” onto a more standard version of the NHL playoffs. However, now those same 16 teams, all of whom finished above .500 this season, will also be in the running to win the top overall pick and the right to select a generational talent in forward Alexis Lafreniere. All eight losers of the qualifying round will have even odds in a second running of the lottery and one lucky team will get playoff experience and an elite young player this season. No one is going to be truly happy with the result (apart from the lottery winner and their fans of course) but who would you least like to see win the top overall pick?

The Pittsburgh Penguins might be at the top of many peoples’ lists. The franchise has won three Stanley Cups in the last decade and no one would be surprised to see them win again this year, especially given the fact that they finished  the regular season in seventh league-wide in points percentage. The Penguins are the best team slated to play in the knockout round, but if by some chance they lose to the Montreal Canadiens, Lafreniere could potentially join Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and company in a move that could extend the dynasty for years still to come. The thought of the talented young winger playing beside either of those superstars would be daunting to every other team in the league.

Finishing just behind Pittsburgh with the ninth-best points percentage in the league this year were the Carolina Hurricanes. The club has quietly accumulated a deep, talented roster including a number of elite young players. Carolina is set to contend for titles for many years to come, but Lafreniere would make them truly dangerous. Like the Penguins, the Hurricanes simply do not need the best player in the draft. Keep in mind  that they were also one of just two teams to vote against the expanded postseason model, making it especially twisted if they were to reap the benefits of this one-off lottery structure. As good as the Hurricanes were at times this season, they are a popular upset pick in the qualifying round against the New York Rangers and could wind up in the lottery.

The New York Islanders finished just outside the top-ten in points percentage this season and have a deep, experienced team. They also play a sound defensive system. While it works to win games, it isn’t the most exciting strategy and could limit the upside of an explosive offensive talent like Lafreniere. On top of that, the Isles don’t even know where they will be playing their home games next season and have suffered from poor attendance in recent years. It doesn’t exactly sound like an ideal landing spot for an exciting top prospect. Fortunately, the Islanders drew a plus matchup against the Florida Panthers and should advance past the knockout round if they can stick to their smothering defensive game.

Given their luck in the draft lottery over the past decade, it’s pretty gross to think about the Edmonton Oilers being in the running for another No. 1 pick. Likely soon to be the home of two MVP’s in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, the Oilers landing Lafreniere as their fifth first overall pick and ninth top-ten pick since 2010 would really be something. With an improved NHL roster and a strong pipeline of talent, the Oilers are finally starting to be self-sufficient and don’t need Lafreniere like they might have in recent year. However, if the team can’t hold off a poor Chicago Blackhawks club in the knockout round, maybe they do need the pick.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are another team that is chock full of young talent and it would be an embarrassment of riches (and embarrassing for the league) to see them land Lafreniere. While the team would be in prime shape to finally snap their Stanley Cup drought with the addition, the Leafs are already well on their way and will be contenders for years and years to come even without the top pick. Additionally, should Toronto win the lottery, there would certainly be those that would cry foul about the whole situation. The Maple Leafs face the Columbus Blue Jackets in the qualifying round in one of the more evenly matched of the upcoming series. Toronto is likely the slight favorite, but could just as easily wind up in the lottery.

The current iteration of the Chicago Blackhawks is not good. However, they are also the most dominant franchise of this decade with three Stanley Cups. It’s not east to find many outside of Chicago who have pity for the current Blackhawks given their sustained success of late. With some of those core players still in place and some exciting young pieces starting to build up, the Blackhawks may already be back on the rebound without the assistance of Lafreniere. If they make it a series with the star-studded Oilers, it will be even more evident that they don’t need a top pick to stay relevant. Like the Maple Leafs, some will also be outraged if the Blackhawks win the lottery due to the perceived favoritism shown by the league on a number of occasions in recent years.

If you really want to hear conspiracy theories though, look no further than the possibility of the Montreal Canadiens winding up with No. 1 overall. Yes, the Canadiens have no business in a playoff series and would have been in the standard draft lottery anyway, but there will be plenty who think that it is far too convenient if the Habs win the top pick when a Francophone and Quebec native is the best player on the board. It used to be that Montreal – who don’t forget have more Stanley Cups than any NHL franchise – was able to claim the best French Canadian players in the draft regardless of draft order. If that opportunity should inadvertently occur once again, plenty of people might get upset at the league despite the fact that Montreal technically is the most deserving (read: worst) of the qualifying round teams. The NHL does not want that drama right now and its most decorated club frankly does not need special treatment, perceived or otherwise.

As for the remaining teams, the Winnipeg Jets, New York Rangers, and Vancouver Canucks were all better than their records implied this season and already have elite young players, the Florida Panthers and Arizona Coyotes may not have the fan bases to support a young star like Lafreniere, and I’m sure there are reasons to root against the Nashville Predators, Calgary Flames, and Minnesota Wild as well. If you can think of a valid reason why the Columbus Blue Jackets, who have one playoff series win in franchise history, don’t deserve a stroke of good luck, that’s fine too.

What do you think? Which team do you absolutely not want to see Lafreniere go to, either because of existing talent or complaints of foul play or for any other reason? The reality is that one of these 16 will end up with the best player on the board, which in many ways is already a loss for the league, but it can get much worse from here.

Who Do You Least Want To See Win The No. 1 Pick?
Penguins 22.98% (960 votes)
Oilers 19.61% (819 votes)
Maple Leafs 19.49% (814 votes)
Canadiens 8.67% (362 votes)
Blackhawks 6.06% (253 votes)
Rangers 5.48% (229 votes)
Islanders 2.94% (123 votes)
Flames 2.47% (103 votes)
Wild 2.47% (103 votes)
Canucks 1.89% (79 votes)
Predators 1.60% (67 votes)
Coyotes 1.48% (62 votes)
Blue Jackets 1.46% (61 votes)
Jets 1.44% (60 votes)
Hurricanes 1.01% (42 votes)
Panthers 0.96% (40 votes)
Total Votes: 4,177

[Mobile users vote here]

Vancouver's Hub City Bid Losing Steam

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Yesterday, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported in an appearance on Sportsnet 590 (audio link) that there was a snag in Vancouver’s hub city bid with Sportsnet’s Iain MacIntyre clarifying that it pertains to contingency plans around a potential positive test.  It appears that the NHL’s concern is rather significant as Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic notes (Twitter link) that the league has shifted towards more detailed conversations with Edmonton and Toronto regarding their bids.  It’s not necessarily the final nail in the coffin for Vancouver but right now, the odds of them being a host city seem lower than they were earlier this week.  Vegas is believed to be the other presumptive frontrunner.

Elsewhere out West:

  • While the salary cap not increasing like originally anticipated would seem like a problem for the Blues when it comes to re-signing defenseman Alex Pietrangelo, Tom Timmermann of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch posited in a recent chat that it could actually work to their advantage. A lower Upper Limit means there will be fewer teams with significant cap space that could put together a top dollar offer to try to lure him away.  If that causes the offers to come in lower than anticipated, the captain re-signing with St. Louis becomes more of a possibility.  Nevertheless, the 30-year-old is in line for a notable jump on his current $6.5MM AAV.
  • Although he’d be unlikely to play for them, Peyton Krebs should on the Golden Knights’ expanded postseason roster, argues Ken Boehlke of SinBin.vegas. Injuries limited the 17th pick last June to just 38 WHL games this season (where he had 60 points) so some extra practice time with the big club would certainly help his development.  Krebs is already signed so he would be eligible to be on their roster and unless he got into ten postseason games, his contract for this would still slide.

Canucks Expected To Recall Nine Players For Training Camp Next Month

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With training camps set to start on July 10th, teams are in the process of determining what recalls they will be making to get their expanded rosters intact.  As things stand, 30 skaters can attend training camp with 28 being allowed to be on the postseason roster while teams can carry an unlimited number of goaltenders.  Postmedia’s Ben Kuzma reports that the Canucks have figured out their recall list which is as follows:

F Sven Baertschi
F Justin Bailey
D Guillaume Brisebois
D Jalen Chatfield
F Tyler Graovac
D Olli Juolevi
G Michael DiPietro
D Brogan Rafferty
D Ashton Sautner

Up front, Baertschi is the most notable among the group.  He has plenty of NHL experience under his belt (and another year on his contract with an AAV of $3.36MM) but spent most of the year with AHL Utica where he averaged over a point per game.  With his prior NHL action though, he’s someone that they could comfortably put in the lineup if injuries arise.

Defensively, Juolevi stands out and not because he’s the only one who hasn’t been recalled to the NHL in the past.  The fifth-overall pick in 2016 battled some injury trouble again this season but is still viewed as one of their better prospects.  The odds of him getting into a game are unlikely but this will at least be an opportunity to practice in an NHL environment which should help his development.

Vancouver is also likely to welcome back winger Micheal Ferland to the fold.  While he has battled concussion troubles all season long, he has resumed skating and it appears that he should be in the mix for a spot in the lineup where he’d likely slot in on the fourth line after being off for so long.

The Canucks will take on Minnesota in the best-of-five play-in round which is tentatively slated to begin sometime in late July or early August assuming an agreement can be reached between the NHL and NHLPA on Return to Play protocols.

Canucks RFA Reid Boucher Signs In The KHL

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June 23: Boucher has officially signed with Avangard Omsk, the KHL team announced.  Dhaliwal reports (via Twitter) that the deal is worth $719K which is a little higher than the $700K minimum salary in the NHL if he was to stay in North America on a one-way contract.  The deal also contains $143K in bonuses if he finishes in the top three in league scoring.

June 18: Canucks winger Reid Boucher has been a prominent scorer in the AHL over the past few years but it hasn’t materialized into much time with Vancouver.  As a result, it appears he will be trying something different for next season as Rick Dhaliwal of TSN 1040 and The Athletic reports (Twitter link) that Boucher is nearing a one-year deal with Avangard Omsk of the KHL.

This season, the 26-year-old was second in the AHL in goals (33) and points (67) in just 53 games; his 1.26 points per game average was tops among qualified players.  Despite that, he didn’t get a sniff of NHL action for the first time in his seven-year professional career so Boucher looking for a change of scenery is understandable.

GM Jim Benning confirmed to Postmedia’s Ben Kuzma (Twitter link) that Vancouver is willing to let Boucher out of his deal now.  That’s particularly notable as it suggests that it’s unlikely that he will be available to the Canucks for their play-in series against Minnesota and any potential postseason action after that.  The KHL is hoping to open up in September and if Boucher was to stay with Vancouver for the playoffs, he could potentially be arriving late.

Vancouver can tender Boucher a qualifying offer this offseason to retain his rights but considering he’s only a year away from being eligible for NHL unrestricted free agency anyway, they could simply opt to non-tender him instead.  With 133 NHL games and 323 AHL contests under his belt, it’s possible that Boucher could make a run at trying to catch on with another NHL team in the 2021 offseason as a free agent.

Snapshots: Hub Favorites, Phase 2, Postseason Rules

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Six cities remain in the hunt as potential hub locations for when the NHL returns to play. As things stand right now, Vegas and either Vancouver or Edmonton are the frontrunners, per The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun. Toronto, Chicago, and Los Angeles remain outside contenders – but they are still very much in the hunt. Of course, Vegas, Vancouver, and Edmonton are all in the Western Conference, meaning one of the Golden Knights, Canucks, or Oilers would play their games at home – should LeBrun’s hunch prove correct. The NHL isn’t overly concerned, per LeBrun, because without fans present, the games would still qualify as technically neutrally located, even though whichever team does stay home would enjoy a certain amount of comfort in their home building. Finding the best, safest fit to house 12 teams at a time is the priority for now, over maintaining a perfect degree of parity. Let’s check in on the other tidbits of news that have eeked out over the last few hours concerning the NHL’s return to play…

  • Phase 2 takes another step forward tomorrow, allowing for up to 12 skaters to share the ice at a time during workouts, tweets Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston. Only six skaters had been allowed at a time up until now. A successful expansion could prove a crucial development given the recent rash of COVID-19 cases popping up across the sports landscape.
  • We also now know – thanks to NHL deputy commissioner Billy Daly – that each of the 24 participating teams will play one or two exhibition games prior to the round-robin and play-in phases of the NHL postseason, per Sam Carchidi of the Philadelphia Inquirer. That’s not a ton of ice time to ready the troops, but with such a small window of viability, it makes sense to limit player exposure prior to any games of consequence.
  • In a more logistical matter, the NHL and Players’ Association have agreed to extend contracts and visas for players whose contracts were going to expire on June 30th, tweets CapFriendly. That’s not to indicate a more comprehensive agreement between the two sides, as will be required before the NHL officially returns to play. The matter of expiring contracts appears to have been agreed upon as a solitary issue.
  • Teams will have 30 players available for July 10 training camps, with playoff rosters trimmed to 28, per Ben Kuzma of Postmedia Sports. For camp and the playoffs, teams will be granted an unlimited number of goalies. Being as only 6 members of each team have been allowed to share the ice at a time through today, the scope of the NHL’s undertaking will clearly require heavy-lifting from logistics and operations departments.

Pacific Notes: Puljujarvi, Tanev, Glass

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With a recent report that New York Rangers’ Lias Andersson is not interested in returning to the team for the upcoming postseason and prefers to stay in Sweden. Now another unhappy lottery pick could be following the same path as Edmonton Oilers forward Jesse Puljujarvi is believed ready to sign a one-year extension with Karpat of Liiga, according to the Edmonton Journal’s Kurt Leavins.

The fourth-overall pick in 2016 has struggled to establish himself in the NHL and chose to sign a one-year contract with Karpat last season. He had a solid season, scoring 24 goals and 53 points in 56 games this past season, but there remains doubt by many that Puljujarvi will eventually return to the NHL and become a dominant player.

What’s interesting is recent comments in which he referenced a willingness to consider returning to Edmonton when he was quoted last week as saying, “never say never.” Leavins, however, wonders if Puljujarvi made the statement in hopes of raising his trade value, especially since there is a belief that the one-year extension would likely include an NHL opt-out clause.

  • The Province’s Ben Kuzma writes that the Vancouver Canucks could have a tough decision to make with pending unrestricted free agent Chris Tanev. While the team is expected to be capped out this offseason and the team has a number of free agents, including Jacob Markstrom and Tyler Toffoli along with several restricted free agents, Tanev might seem like a player who could easily replaced, especially with a number of young blueliners near NHL ready, including Brogan Rafferty, Guillaume Brisebois, Olli Juolevi and the possible return of Nikita Tryamkin. However, the 30-year-old has made it clear that he wants to stay in Vancouver and considering how well he paired next to rookie Quinn Hughes and his leadership skills, the team might have to seriously consider keeping him over others. “It’s a very tough situation because nobody knows where the cap is going to be,” said Tanev. “But I want to stay in Vancouver. I love it here and it’s sort of my new home. I love the guys on the team and we’re trending in the right direction.”
  • Justin Emerson of the Las Vegas Sun writes that Vegas Golden Knights general manager Kelly McCrimmon is still working on who might fill the team’s extra spots on their expanded roster for the upcoming 24-team tournament playoffs. However, one name that won’t be on that list is rookie Cody Glass, who underwent knee surgery in March and is not expected to be ready for the delayed playoffs. Glass had a difficult rookie season in which he struggled on the team’s third line with just five goals and 12 points in 39 games.

Micheal Ferland Resumes Skating

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Canucks winger Micheal Ferland has resumed skating as he continues to work his way back from concussion issues, reports Rick Dhaliwal of TSN 1040 and The Athletic (Twitter link).  He suffered a concussion back on October 30th where he missed a little more than a month.  He tried to come back in December but was shut down in his second game.  He made a second comeback attempt in February but was pulled from his first game on a conditioning assignment as the symptoms came back once again.

At that time, he was ruled out for the season but with play not resuming until into the summer, there’s now a possibility that Ferland could return while having the benefit of a full training camp to show that he has indeed recovered.  If healthy, he can make a difference in the bottom six for the Canucks, bringing them a physical presence with some offensive upside after recording at least 40 points in each of the previous two seasons.

Mutual Contract Termination May Make Sense For Loui Eriksson

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Near the trade deadline, the Sabres waived and sent Zach Bogosian to the AHL.  However, instead of reporting, Bogosian opted for a contract termination with an eye on resuming his NHL career and wound up in Tampa Bay shortly thereafter.  Sportsnet’s Iain MacIntyre posits that the Canucks may attempt to go down a similar path with winger Loui Eriksson.  Part of that ill-fated group of big free agent signings in 2016, Eriksson’s numbers went down as soon as he signed with Vancouver and had 72 points in his first three years combined after putting up 63 in Boston in his final year with them.  His output dipped even further this year to just six goals and seven assists in 49 games, hardly a good return on his $6MM price tag.  Once his upcoming $3MM signing bonus is paid, Eriksson will be owed just $5MM in salary over the final two years of the deal which might be enough to walk away from if he thinks he can land an opportunity with a bigger role elsewhere.

Nikolay Goldobin Signs In The KHL

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June 18: It took more than two months but the deal is now official, as CSKA Moscow announced that Goldobin has indeed inked a two-year contract with the club.

April 11: After spending the majority of this season in the minors, it appears that Canucks winger Nikolay Goldobin is heading overseas.  Sport-Express’ Igor Eronko reports (Twitter link) that Goldobin is expected to sign a two-year deal with CSKA Moscow of the KHL.  TSN 1040’s Rick Dhaliwal relays (via Twitter) a quick statement from Goldobin who confirmed that he is signing in the KHL (but didn’t specify which team) and that he’s looking forward to trying the NHL again at the expiration of his deal.

The 24-year-old cleared waivers at the beginning of the season and aside from a single NHL game in late November, Goldobin spent the entire year with AHL Utica.  He was quite productive with the Comets, recording 50 points in 51 games.  It was just a year ago that he spent an entire season with Vancouver as the 2014 first-round pick had 27 points in 63 contests back in 2018-19 but that wasn’t enough to generate any interest on the waiver wire or the trade market.

The Canucks can retain Goldobin’s NHL rights by issuing a qualifying offer.   However, it’s at least worth noting that Goldobin told Dhaliwal that Vancouver had no interest in re-signing him for 2020-21, suggesting that a non-tender was probably coming.  However, as he won’t be eligible for unrestricted free agency at the expiration of his KHL contract, they’re now likely to tender him the qualifying offer now in case he breaks out overseas.  He’ll still count against the 90-player reserve list in that instance but every team is well below that particular threshold.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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