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Morning Notes: Maple Leafs, Eberle, Bishop

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The Maple Leafs took an impressive step forward in 2016-17, riding the backs of several rookies to their first playoff appearance in a full season since 2004. While they were ultimately defeated by the Washington Capitals, their fan base was enthused by the performance and expects big things from them over the next several years. James Mirtle of The Athletic (subscription needed) took a look at their salary cap situation, and proposes that the Maple Leafs should make a big splash this summer before they have to pay the likes of Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner more than their current entry-level deals.

Mirtle shows that the Leafs may have as much as $15MM to spend this summer and would be wise to invest it in short-term veteran help for the team to push them into contention immediately. Joe Thornton, Ilya Kovalchuk, Alexander Radulov all make hypothetical appearances among the Maple Leafs forwards, while the contention that a right-handed defenseman is still of the highest importance remains. Toronto, who holds the 17th-overall pick in the upcoming entry draft could theoretically use some of their prospect capital and cap room to be one of the biggest players in both free agency and the trade market this summer.

  • Jordan Eberle has become a sort of whipping-boy in Edmonton of late, after his play in the postseason took a sharp downward turn. Many fans have been clamoring for his head, wanting to ship him out for the next Adam Larsson. While obviously he still holds value following his 51 point season that included a fourth-straight 20+ goal effort, Eberle will be very difficult to move contends David Staples of the Edmonton Journal. Staples quotes TSN Head Scout Craig Button in the piece, agreeing that a $6MM cap-hit is no easy transaction. Staples writes that Buffalo, Vancouver and New Jersey—the same team that accepted a Taylor Hall deal last summer—would be interested in Eberle and hold the needed cap room for the next few seasons.
  • According to the venerable Renaud Lavoie for Le Journal de Montreal, the Stars actually pursued Scott Darling before acquiring Ben Bishop last week. Darling was the team’s first choice, but they wouldn’t part with the third-round pick it took for Carolina to finally lock down his negotiating rights. Darling signed a $16.6MM deal with the Hurricanes, while Bishop inked a six-year, $29.5MM contract with Dallas. It’s interesting to note that Darling is two years younger than Bishop, but received two fewer years on his contract. With an even lower cap-hit, Darling’s seems to be the much more attractive of the two deals, making the difference between a fourth—what the Stars eventually gave up for Bishop—and a third round pick seem more than acceptable.

Predators’ Draft Plummet

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If the Nashville Predators are ever to win a Stanley Cup, this seems the most likely year. Their window is far from closing, to be sure. But for a team that doesn’t often spend to the cap, their long-term finances may become complicated. They have a multitude of players performing well above their contract levels, are benefiting from Entry-Level Contracts (Viktor Arvidsson and Kevin Fiala), and the bulk of their team is in their late twenties. Nashville isn’t the most dynamic offensive force, but have gotten enough scoring  this outing to support the absurdly good top-four defense and brilliant goaltending from Pekka Rinne (.951 SV%).

That said, if they fail to win the glorious prize at the end of four series, will their draft plummet be seen as worth the hassle? They finished with the West’s lowest seeding in Wild Card 2, and the worst overall record in the playoffs at 94 points, edging out the Calgary Flames and Toronto Maple Leafs. Their draft plummet is quite the precarious one, similar to the 8th seeded 2011-12 Los Angeles Kings in the entry draft. Of course, that team went 16-4 in the postsesason to win the Stanley Cup, and certainly didn’t mind sacrificing a higher first-round pick to win their franchise’s first title.

But what if they hadn’t won? By advancing to the post-season’s final four, Los Angeles automatically shifted from drafting 16th to 30th. If the Predators were to lose in the Conference Finals, it would mean a drop from 17th to 28th. A Finals loss would mean 30th. Obviously, fans aren’t concerned with these sorts of trivialities when rooting on their team to glory, nor necessarily should they be. However, for management, this is quite the potential concern. Finding failure late in the playoffs and then also suffering the sting of a draft position dive is tough to stomach. After all, deals can sometimes hinge on whether a first or second round pick is early, mid, or late round.

For reference, let us look at the last 10 years draft history with regard to the 17th and 28th selections to see the potential disparity:

2016: 17th D Dante Fabbro (NSH), 28th F Lucas Johannson (WSH)

2015: 17th F Kyle Connor (WPG), 28th F Anthony Beauvillier (NYI)

2014: 17th D Travis Sanheim (PHI), 28th Josh Ho-Sang (NYI)

2013: 17th F Curtis Lazar (OTT), 28th F Morgan Klimchuck (CGY)

2012: 17th F Tomas Hertl (SJ), 28th D Brady Skjei (NYR)

2011: 17th F Nathan Beaulieu (MTL), 28th F Zach Phillips (MIN)

2010: 17th F Joey Hison (COL), 28th F Charlie Coyle (MIN)

2009: 17th D David Rundblad (STL), 28th F Dylan Olsen (TBL)

2008: 17th D Jake Gardiner (ANA), 28th F Viktor Tikhonov (PHX)

2007: 17th F Alexei Cherepanov (NYR), 28th Nick Petrecki (SJ)

The jury is still completely out on last year’s draft class, but as you can see, the two prior years have worked out quite well for the New York Islanders at the 28th spot. Beauvillier and Ho-Sang have both developed into studs quite quickly, while Connor and Sanheim still have a lot to prove. As we look at the last decade of entry drafts, there seems to be no real discernible advantage in terms of NHL projection. So although 11 spots seems like an awful long way to drop, Nashville (and any other future conference finalists) can rest easy that their relative success will still hinge upon being able to scout and develop talent properly.

Toronto Maple Leafs Eyeing Swedish Help On Defense

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For all the success the Toronto Maple Leafs rookie forward group had this season, with Auston Matthews immediately becoming #1 center, Mitch Marner proving his size doesn’t change the fact that he’s a wizard with the puck, and William Nylander coming into his own as a possession-driving forward, their was still (at least) one thing wrong with the team. Their defense, even with the addition of 25-year old rookie Nikita Zaitsev, were often criticized for giving up leads and looking lost in their own end.

So they entered this season with a clear direction: add depth on defense. Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner and Zaitsev gave them three reliable options—ones that are now all locked up for next season—but they needed to fix the bottom pair if nothing else. Matt Hunwick and Roman Polak are both free agents, and though at times held their own were generally a weakness on the team.

When Mike Babcock finished the season, he immediately said he’d be heading to the World Championships to watch a few players, and this week told Darren Dreger that the team would soon be announcing a few European signings. It seems like those will include at least two Swedish defenders, namely Calle Rosen and Philip Holm. Rosen was linked to the Maple Leafs last month, while yesterday a report surfaced from a Swedish source that said Holm was also committed to the Maple Leafs.

Rosen and Holm both played this season for Vaxjo of the SHL, and are even usual partners there. Both shoot from the left-side, and have a common ability to skate the puck out of traffic and move it with crisp passes. During the year Holm, the elder of the two at 25, recorded 21 points while Rosen notched 19 in 11 fewer games.

With Holm getting into his first two matches at the World Championships for Sweden, Babcock likely has seen him up close. His three point effort against the Italians today would certainly impress, as he keeps up with the other outstanding defenders on Sweden.

Though nothing has been officially announced just yet, Rosen and Holm would definitely add a new wrinkle to the Maple Leafs defense group next season, and perhaps even get another chance to play together under the bright lights of professional hockey. While Maple Leafs GM Lou Lamoriello said recently that there is one player in particular in the minors that they’d like to take a look at, these Swedish defenders may block any prospect from making the jump just yet.

Notable Contracts Signed During Playoffs

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The NHL’s regular season ended on April 9. Since then, there have been six notable contracts handed out by teams who either missed the playoffs or were eliminated early. We also saw the first major signing by the expansion Vegas Golden Knights.

At the half-way mark of the playoffs, let’s take a look at the bigger contracts signed so far:

April 24 – The New York Islanders re-signed Dennis Seidenberg to a one-year extension worth $1.25MM. A year removed from being bought-out by the Boston Bruins, Seidenberg signed with the Islanders during training camp. The defensive defenseman scored five goals and 22 points in 73 games with the Islanders. Seidenberg will be exposed in the expansion draft, but is not the most-appealing option that will be available to the Golden Knights from the Islanders roster.

May 2 – The Toronto Maple Leafs finally confirmed the long-rumored signing of defenseman Nikita Zaitsev to a seven-year, $31.5MM extension. That’s an average of $4.5MM per season, which is fair value for a top-four defenseman on a long-term deal. The 25-year old transitioned exceptionally to the NHL, registering 36 points while leading the Maple Leafs in ice-time and playing in all 82 regular season games. The term is likely longer than most Maple Leafs’ fans wanted, but will keep the cap hit down. He will also be exempt from this spring’s expansion draft.

May 4 – The Vegas Golden Knights made their first major acquisition (sorry, Reid Duke) by signing KHL star Vadim Shipachyov to a two-year, $9MM contract. The 30-year-old center scored 76 points in 50 games this season for SKA St. Petersburg. That was good for third in the KHL and second on SKA, behind only Ilya Kovalchuk. Shipachyov is a highly-skilled offensive player, but isn’t a big body at 6’1, 190 lbs. Vegas hopes he’ll be a marquee talent for the expansion club.

May 5 – The Carolina Hurricanes traded for Chicago Blackhawks backup goaltender Scott Darling in late April, and spent less than a week negotiating a new four-year, $16.6MM contract. Darling spent three seasons with the Blackhawks, going from a little-known name to one of this summer’s most highly sought-after goaltenders. In 32 games this season, Darling went 18-5-5 with a 0.924 SV% and a 2.38 GAA. The Hurricanes still owe Eddie Lack and Cam Ward over $6MM for the upcoming season.

May 9 – The Los Angeles Kings’ new GM Rob Blake locked up one of his team’s key young players to a four-year, $15MM contract. Tanner Pearson finished third on the Kings in scoring, with a career-high 44 points. The Kings had a disappointing season, but Pearson was one of their few bright spots.

May 11 – After a 22-goal season, Richard Panik signed a two-year, $5.8MM extension with the Chicago Blackhawks this morning. Panik caught on with the Chicago Blackhawks last season and has been a regular fixture with captain Jonathan Toews on the top line. Prior to his 44-points this season, Panik’s previous career-high was 17 points. While he left some money on the table, it was unlikely that he would find a better spot than on Toews’ wing.

Toronto Maple Leafs To Announce European Signings Soon

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While he didn’t give Darren Dreger of TSN much in an interview featured on “Dreger’s Cafe”, Mike Babcock did let it slip that the team will soon announce some signings that will “add to [their] group”. Dreger confirmed that Babcock didn’t mean any restricted free agents, but European players that have been scouted by the Leafs’ staff all season.

Recently Toronto was linked to Calle Rosen, and has also been rumored to be involved in the Evgeni Dadonov sweepstakes. Babcock himself is attending the World Championships to scout some players of interest, where the Russian winger is currently playing. It’s unclear who else the Maple Leafs coach would be referring to as obviously there are hundreds of eligible players throughout Europe.

Babcock also talked about his team’s needs for next season, joking that if he could pluck a right-handed defenseman able to log 25 minutes a night off a tree in the backyard he would. The coach mentioned that they could use help up front and on defense, and it’s clear that they will be busy this offseason exploring any avenue to make their team better. That said, Babcock again made it clear that the team will stick to their plan of building a “program” that looks for consistent success instead of short windows and even with their success this season will not stray.

On Auston Matthews, Babcock heaped praise upon the character of his young superstar saying that he knew he would be a good man the second he met his parents. He won’t commit to the idea that Matthews will be captain next year, though does think of him as a future leader. The Maple Leafs haven’t had a captain since they traded Dion Phaneuf to the Ottawa Senators in 2016, and have had a combination of Morgan Rielly, Matt Hunwick, Leo Komarov and Tyler Bozak in the alternate captain role over the past year.

Snapshots: Gauthier, Blues, Lagesson

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The Toronto Marlies will be without Frederik Gauthier for the remainder of their AHL playoff run, and the young center may miss his chance to make the NHL club at the beginning of next season. David Alter of The Athletic reports that Gauthier will have a lower-body surgery and is facing a six month recovery after being hit late by Syracuse Crunch defender Jake Dotchin.

As you can see in the twitter timeline of Jeff Veillette linked above, Dotchin has a history with the Maple Leafs this season, spread between his time in the AHL and NHL. From injuring Kasperi Kapanen with a low hit, to taking a kneeing penalty on Auston Matthews, he’s become enemy #1 in Toronto. Gauthier will now likely miss training camp, meaning the Maple Leafs can’t pencil him into the fourth-line center role that he may have taken. With Ben Smith recently re-signed for expansion draft purposes, perhaps the team will return to him to start the year in that position.

  • The St. Louis Blues have sent Jordan Schmaltz, Ivan Barbashev and Zach Sanford to the Chicago Wolves to give their AHL team a boost for the remainder of the playoffs. While Schmaltz had been bouncing back and forth to play in most of the Wolves’ postseason games, Barbashev and Sanford will come as a huge positive for a Wolves team that is down 2-1 against the Grand Rapids Griffins in the second round. Both forwards are excellent AHL scorers and will add to the Wolves’ already potent attack.
  • Edmonton has assigned William Lagesson to Djurgardens of the Swedish Hockey League after he turned pro last month. The defender had been playing for UMass-Amherst for the past two seasons, but will return to his native Sweden for the time being. The fourth-round pick from 2014 still needs work to put himself in legitimate NHL prospect status, and that will now continue for Djurgardens who lost a minute-muncher in Emil Johansson to the Providence Bruins in March.

Morning Notes: Crosby, Ovechkin, Sabres Search

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After skating on his own yesterday, Sidney Crosby was back at Penguins’ practice today in a regular jersey and looks poised to return to the lineup tomorrow night in Washington. If he does, it would be just five days since suffering a concussion due to Matt Niskanen’s cross-check on Monday night. The idea of returning so quickly may be familiar to Penguins fans that remember Crosby’s first concussion. After being hit by David Steckel in the 2010-11 Winter Classic, Crosby would return just a few days later to face the Tampa Bay Lightning.  After another (much less violent) hit from Victor Hedman, he’d lose the rest of the season and part of the next year.

While obviously if he’s returning it means that the Pittsburgh medical staff has signed off, returning so soon is still a risk for the Penguins’ captain. His history with head injuries is getting longer and longer, and there have been many instances around the league of players coming back too soon, only to have symptoms return. Here’s hoping that Crosby is 100% ready, and not being rushed back in order to give the Penguins a better chance for the Stanley Cup.

  • The Washington Capitals will try Alex Ovechkin on the third line tomorrow, moving him down in an attempt to spread out their offense. Washington has only been able to score more than two goals once in the series, and even had trouble scoring in their first-round matchup with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Despite out-shooting their opponent consistently, the Capitals just can’t seem to find the back of the net. Putting Ovechkin with Lars Eller and Tom Wilson may seem like a desperation move, but perhaps it will spark something in the team as they fight for their playoff lives.
  • The Buffalo Sabres GM search continues, and according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet (via a Chris Nichols transcription on FanRag) they have asked at least one candidate if they would be comfortable with the team installing a President of Hockey Operations after taking the job. As discussed this week, many around the league believe Buffalo should follow the design of teams like the Calgary Flames, who have an experienced GM sitting behind a less-experienced man holding the position. While Buffalo tried this with Pat LaFontaine at one point, disagreements led to the dissolving of the President position and Tim Murray retaining whole control.

Vladimir Tkachyov Re-Signs With Kazan, Will Not Play In NHL

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One of the names bandied about in recent weeks has been that of Vladimir Tkachyov, a young Ukrainian forward who starred for Ak Bars Kazan this season. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet had linked him to the Maple Leafs, Devils and Oilers in a previous column, though mentioned that the NHL’s decision to not attend the Olympics could affect his decision. That seems true now, as Tkachyov has re-signed with Kazan for two years and will not be coming to North America just yet.

The 23-year old forward—not to be confused with the 21-year old Vladimir Tkachyov who is still under contract with Vladivostock—scored 32 points in 53 games in the KHL last season, adding another 11 in 15 playoff matches. Playing parts of the last five seasons in the K, Tkachyov is expected to make an impact at the NHL level should he ever decide to come over. His strength on the puck and two-way game are admirable, and though he doesn’t possess elite skill he has strong enough skating to fit in on any line.

The fact that he is a center who has been capable in the faceoff dot makes him interesting for several NHL teams looking to add depth down the middle without sacrificing any assets, and you’ll surely hear his name again in two years. For now, the league will have to turn its attention back to Evgeni Dadonov and Vadim Shipachyov—and perhaps even Ilya Kovalchuk—to try and get some KHL help.

Toronto Maple Leafs Sign Ben Smith To One-Year Deal

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Seconds after announcing their seven-year extension with Nikita Zaitsev, the Toronto Maple Leafs also revealed that they’ve signed forward Ben Smith to a one-year, $650K deal for next season. Smith was set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer. The Maple Leafs now have options when it comes to the expansion draft, as previously it looked like they would have had to expose Matt Martin along with Eric Fehr to fill the forward requirements. Since Smith played 40 games this season, he can be used as “fodder” to fill one of those two slots.

Smith will turn 29 this summer and has carved out an NHL existence throughout the years despite never being able to duplicate his 2013-14 season with the Blackhawks. Playing in 75 games that year, Smith scored 14 goals and 26 points while getting votes for the Lady Byng trophy. His success in the faceoff dot, combined with his perceived penalty kill acumen has earned him another contract though even the Maple Leafs rarely used him after his wrist injury this year.

In 40 games split between the Maple Leafs and Avalanche, he scored just four points and was one of the worst possession players in the league. It will be interesting to see if the new deal is a one-way contract, as the Maple Leafs likely will not have room for him on the NHL roster next season.

Nikita Zaitsev Signs Seven-Year Extension With Toronto Maple Leafs

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After being rumored for weeks, the Toronto Maple Leafs have officially announced a seven-year, $31.5MM extension for defenseman Nikita Zaitsev. The deal will see Zaitsev earn an equal $4.5MM per season through 2023-24, though $11MM of it comes in the form of signing bonuses. It also includes a limited no-trade clause which comes into effect in the summer of 2019, giving Zaitsev 10 teams that he can block trades to. Nikita Zaitsev

For the Maple Leafs, locking up Zaitsev was an immediate concern after his excellent rookie season. The KHL had threatened to hand him big money to return, and with the NHL’s decision to avoid the Olympics the possibility of him leaving had to be on the minds of Lou Lamoriello and company in the Maple Leafs front office. Zaitsev has made it clear from the beginning though that he wanted to stay in Toronto, and has now been rewarded with a huge deal.

The 25-year old transitioned exceptionally to the NHL, registering 36 points while leading the Maple Leafs in ice-time and playing in all 82 regular season games. A concussion sustained in the final regular season match held him out for part of the first round but he would return in game 3 and record at least 20 minutes in each of his four matches.

While seven years may seem like a few too many, it was likely needed to keep the annual salary down. The Maple Leafs were expected to keep any defenseman’s salary below that of Morgan Rielly, who last summer signed a six-year extension that sees him earn $5MM per season. Zaitsev will now slot in below that, but ahead of Jake Gardiner who has two years left at $4.05MM.

The Leafs now have six NHL defenders under contract for next season, but likely will try to upgrade that group instead of handing the bottom pairing to Alexey Marchenko and Martin Marincin. The team does have a few defensive prospects, but none of Rinat Valiev, Andrew Nielsen or Travis Dermott seem ready to take on a full-time role.

The team does have money to spend during the season, due to the expected LTIR statuses of Nathan Horton and Joffrey Lupul, but that won’t help them in the offseason. The team has to be cap-compliant as of the start of the year, and now has around $12-15MM (depending on where exactly the cap lands) to bring in a backup goaltender and come to terms on new deals with Zach Hyman and Connor Brown. After that, defense will be the first priority with players like Kevin Shattenkirk and Karl Alzner being possible (though unlikely) targets in free agency.

David Alter of The Athletic was first to provide the details of the contract. 

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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