Classifying The Remaining Restricted Free Agents
When the calendar flips to September, it’s time to start paying some attention to who’s left unsigned in restricted free agency. Usually at this point, two months have elapsed since the start of free agency (it’s six weeks this summer) which is typically more than enough time to get a deal done.
There are currently 13 remaining RFAs that haven’t signed elsewhere for next season. As is usually the case, those players can be grouped into a few tiers which are as follows.
Star Players
Jason Robertson (Dallas)
Generally speaking, there are usually more players in this group at this time but the 23-year-old is the only star player in need of a new deal. He’s coming off a 41-goal campaign that has the asking price justifiably high – team owner Tom Gaglardi acknowledged it’s in the $7MM range. The Stars would likely prefer to do a long-term deal that buys out some UFA years but that could push the AAV past $9MM and they don’t have the cap space to do that. At this point, what GM Jim Nill does or doesn’t do on the trade front might dictate what ultimately happens with Robertson; if they can free up some money, a long-term agreement becomes palatable but otherwise, it’ll almost certainly be a bridge contract.
Underachieving Former First Rounders
Erik Brannstrom (Ottawa), Kirby Dach (Montreal), Barrett Hayton (Arizona), Rasmus Sandin (Toronto)
Dach and Hayton were both top-five picks in their respective draft classes but have yet to show the type of offensive consistency to put them in the category of core players. Dach was traded to Montreal at the draft after a quiet season that saw him put up nine goals and 26 points, both career-highs. Despite that, it appears that the Canadiens are at least pondering a medium-term agreement that would run for four years but still leave him RFA-eligible at the end. Something a little shorter in the $2.5MM range is also an option. Hayton has just this last season in terms of being a regular under his belt and could fit in a different category than this but his performance relative to draft stock has been concerning. He’s a prime candidate for a bridge contract and with fewer than 100 NHL games under his belt, he simply doesn’t have the leverage to command anything longer. A two-year deal around the $2MM range should be where his deal falls.
As for Brannstrom, he was billed as an offensive defender but has yet to be able to produce with any consistency since joining Ottawa back in 2019. He has just two career goals in 116 career games but that hasn’t stopped his camp from seeking a multi-year agreement in negotiations which are likely playing a role in this delay. Sandin could also fit in a different category but the 2018 first-rounder has exhausted his waiver exemption and doesn’t appear to be a fit in their top six next season. His agent recently bemoaned the lack of progress in negotiations. Teammate Timothy Liljegren’s two-year bridge deal that has a $1.4MM AAV seems like a reasonable comparable but with playing time being a potential concern, might Sandin be looking for more certainty before putting pen to paper on a new deal?
Young Regulars
Michael Anderson (Los Angeles), Alex Formenton (Ottawa), Nicolas Hague (Vegas)
Formenton played his first full NHL season in 2021-22 and it was a good one as the 22-year-old speedster chipped in with 18 goals and 14 assists in 78 games. The Sens have ample cap space this coming season so there are some options beyond the bridge contract. If GM Pierre Dorion thinks that Formenton is part of their long-term core, a longer-term pact that buys out a UFA year or two in the $3.5MM range might be a better way for them to go.
Hague has done well in a limited role on the back end for the Golden Knights over the past two seasons and is coming off a year where he logged close to 19 minutes a night. They’ve already spent most of the LTIR ‘savings’ so Vegas isn’t in a spot to give him a long-term deal. But is Hague better off taking a one-year contract that would be below market value to acquire arbitration eligibility next summer? Such a deal would be in the $1.25MM range with the promise of a better payout later on. Otherwise, a bridge pact that’s closer to $2MM is probably in the cards. Anderson has logged over 20 minutes a night for the Kings for the last two years but doesn’t have the offensive numbers to support a pricey bridge deal. Los Angeles’ cap space is quite limited so, like Hague, a one-year deal in the $1.25MM range might be where they wind up settling.
Not Fully Established
Sean Durzi (Los Angeles), Ryan McLeod (Edmonton)
McLeod figures to be a part of the long-term plans for the Oilers after a promising rookie campaign but doesn’t have much leverage at this point. Edmonton’s issue here is cap space as they’re already in a spot where they need to clear money out. If they can move someone out, a multi-year bridge contract becomes their preferred route but otherwise, he’s a strong candidate for a one-year deal around that $1.25MM threshold as well, perhaps a tad below that.
Durzi quietly put up 27 points in 64 games last season but it’s his only taste of NHL action so the track record isn’t strong enough to command a sizable contract. A two-year bridge deal makes a lot of sense for him as a repeat performance over that stretch would have him well-positioned to seek $4MM or more two summers from now. However, with the cap situation for the Kings, they might be forced to push for the one-year, ‘prove it’ contract that would fall in the same range as Anderson.
What’s The Holdup?
Cayden Primeau (Montreal), Adam Ruzicka (Calgary), Parker Wotherspoon (NY Islanders)
Ruzicka played in 28 games last season for the Flames and did reasonably well with ten points but it’s not as if he’s in a position to command a sizable raise. He’s waiver-eligible but not a guarantee to be claimed if he passes through. The holdup might be along the lines of making next season a one-way or two-way contract with any subsequent season(s) being a one-way agreement. Even so, it’s odd this is taking so long.
Wotherspoon’s presence on here is arguably the most perplexing of the bunch. He opted to not file for salary arbitration which would have gotten him signed weeks ago. He has cleared waivers in each of the last two seasons and has yet to play an NHL game. Haggling over NHL money would be pointless as a result so accordingly, it’s safe to suggest his NHL pay would be $750K. At this point, AHL salary or guaranteed money is the only sticking point. In all likelihood, the gap probably can’t be more than around $25K which is a pretty small one to justify being unsigned this long.
Primeau is coming off a strong showing in the AHL playoffs but struggled mightily in limited NHL action with the Canadiens last season. Even so, he’s viewed as their potential backup of the future as soon as 2023-24 when he becomes waiver-eligible. This is a contract that should be a two-way pact next season and then one-way after that as a result and there are enough of those comparable contracts around the league for young goalies that the general framework should basically have been in place before talks even started. As a result, this is another case that feels like it should have been resolved weeks ago.
There’s still plenty of time to work something out with training camps still a couple of weeks away and several of these players should come off the board by then but there will likely be a handful still unsigned when camps get underway.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
London Knights Acquire Sam Dickinson
After Sam Dickinson made it clear that he wouldn’t be showing up to training camp for the Niagara IceDogs, there seemed to be two paths in front of him. The Chicago Steel, who had picked him late in the USHL draft, or the London Knights, who were rumored to be close to acquiring his rights.
It appears as though the latter is the path that Dickinson will choose, as the Knights have sent Niagara a package of seven draft picks for the young defenseman, who was the fourth-overall selection in this year’s OHL draft.
The IceDogs will receive:
- 2023 3rd (NBB)
- 2023 5th
- 2024 2nd
- 2025 2nd
- 2025 3rd
- 2026 2nd
- 2026 3rd
Mark Hunter, general manager of the Knights, released the following:
We are extremely excited to trade for player of Sam’s caliber. He has a complete 200-foot game and is a top end talent of size, skill, and grit. He’s the type of player you win with.
Having only turned 16 in June, Dickinson already stands 6’2″ 194 lbs and was the first defenseman selected in the OHL draft this year. Joining London will likely help his stock rise even more, as the program is well-known for being an NHL training ground, because of its financial dominance in the CHL and first-class facilities.
Whether that turns into a pick near the top of the 2024 NHL draft remains to be seen but Dickinson appears to have made his way to the program he wanted.
Toronto Marlies Defenseman Joseph Duszak Signs In KHL
- Toronto Marlies defenseman Joseph Duszak won’t be returning for the 2022-23 season, instead heading to Dinamo Minsk of the KHL (link). Duszak, 25, spent three years at Mercyhurst College, joining the Marlies after an impressive 47 points in 37 college games in 2018-19. The Long Island native would split the 2019-20 season between the Marlies and the Newfoundland Growlers (the Marlies’ and Toronto Maple Leafs’ ECHL affiliate), joining the team full-time thereafter. Like in college, Duszak broke out in his third full professional season, recording seven goals and 45 assists in 61 games on the Marlies blueline this year.
Former Maple Leafs Coach Mike Babcock Retiring From Coaching
Considered one of the premier head coaches of his generation, Babcock amassed a record of 700-418-19-164 over 1,301 career regular season NHL games between the Mighty Ducks of Anaheim, the Detroit Red Wings, and the Toronto Maple Leafs. Perhaps most impressive, all but three of Babcock’s teams made it to the playoffs under his watch, leading to a 90-74 record in those playoffs, including three appearances in the Stanley Cup Finals and a championship with the 2007-08 Detroit Red Wings. Babcock last coached in the NHL during the 2019-20 season before he was let go by the Maple Leafs after a 9-10-4 start to the season. As recently as the 2020 offseason, he had been a candidate of interest for available NHL head coaching positions. If this is indeed the end of the road for Babcock, Hall of Fame debates are very likely part of his near future.
Dmitri Ovchinnikov Heading To KHL
The Toronto Maple Leafs won’t have Dmitri Ovchinnikov in North America this season. After the young forward signed his entry-level contract in February and made his AHL debut with the Toronto Marlies at the end of the year, he has now signed a new one-year deal with Sibir Novosibirsk and will transfer to the club for the upcoming season.
This loan does not cancel Ovchinnikov’s contract with the Maple Leafs, only delays his debut as a full-time member of the AHL club. The talented 20-year-old forward scored twice in his seven games with the team this spring, after rarely seeing the ice in his 17 KHL appearances.
Hopefully, he’ll be able to claw out a bigger role for his Russian club and start contributing as he has at the MHL level, where Ovchinnikov has been better than a point-per-game player the last three seasons. The fifth-round pick is under contract with the Maple Leafs for two more seasons.
Negotiations “Going Nowhere” Between Rasmus Sandin, Maple Leafs
One of the interesting restricted free agents that remains unsigned is Rasmus Sandin of the Toronto Maple Leafs. The 2018 first-round pick does not have arbitration rights yet and reports have emerged over the last few months about him wondering where he stands on the team’s depth chart, after they brought back Mark Giordano on a two-year deal.
Now, new comments from Sandin’s camp have emerged, explaining how little movement there has been in contract talks To Sportsnet’s Luke Fox, agent Lewis Gross said “negotiations are going nowhere.” Maple Leafs’ general manager Kyle Dubas responded with some firm thoughts on negotiating through the media, including the fact that it “traditionally [does] not create resolutions to private matters.”
A player that is often linked to Sandin, Timothy Liljegren, signed a two-year, $2.8MM contract with the Maple Leafs in June, avoiding restricted free agency entirely. That contract is likely being used by Toronto as a direct comparable, given the similarity in production between the two young defensemen.
But even that $1.4MM average annual value might be an issue for the Maple Leafs right now, who are pushed right up against the cap once again. While their situation right now could be resolved by carrying a 20-man roster, it seems more likely that a trade is coming at some point – especially if they want to fit Sandin in.
The fact that no contract movement is happening will raise some eyebrows in that trade speculation, given the fact that Giordano, Morgan Rielly, and Jake Muzzin are locked in on the left side of Toronto’s blueline already. If Sandin was signed, then there would be no real reason to move him, as depth at defense is extremely important. But if contract talks have still not progressed, perhaps the team will have to move on at some point.
Like any of the other RFAs, Sandin will need a contract by December 1 if he wants to play in the NHL this season.
Rodion Amirov Hopes To Return To Hockey By November
In a lengthy interview with Russian newspaper Sports Express, translated by Sports Illustrated and discussed by David Alter, Toronto Maple Leafs prospect Rodion Amirov spoke about his brain tumor diagnosis and treatment, as well as his planned return to hockey. Amirov explained that he received a hit to the head while playing for Ufa Salavat Yulaev of the KHL early last season and began to experience symptoms typical of a head injury. With the issue persistent, Amirov sought the help of specialists in Germany back in October who, after several months, confirmed the worst to him in January: a brain tumor.
The forward added that after the diagnosis, he and those close to him, chose to keep the diagnosis private, not wanting anyone to feel sorry for the 20-year-old. Ultimately, they chose to disclose the diagnosis publicly, and the Maple Leafs issued a statement on February 23rd, confirming. Since then, Amirov has received an outpouring of support on his road to recovery. Now it appears he has his sights set on hockey once again, already skating with a trainer and eyeing a November return to the sport.
The return to hockey is surely a positive sign, not only that Amirov can play and continue to develop, but being able to do so and focus on it a positive sign for his health. It’s unclear if any of this will pose any long-term effects on the young winger, though the time off at least will serve to set his development back to some extent. That setback is one Toronto would be more than happy to deal with if it means Amirov’s health and well-being are being served. As much support as Amirov has off the ice, and as uplifting as his story seems to be becoming, it’s worth keeping in mind how strong of a prospect he still is. In three seasons in the KHL, Russia’s top league, Amirov has held his own at his young age, putting up 18 points in 70 games, most of which came as a teenager.
Snapshots: Laxdal, Clune, Klinkhammer
The OHL’s Oshawa Generals today named Derek Laxdal the 35th head coach in team history via a press release. Laxdal, 56, had spent the last eight seasons in the Dallas Stars organization. Before he was promoted midseason to the Stars’ NHL bench as an assistant coach in 2019-20, Laxdal was the head coach of the AHL’s Texas Stars from 2014-15 to 2019.
The news means that Dallas will indeed undergo a complete overhaul of their core coaching staff from last season. The organization replaced a pair of other assistants this offseason, hiring Alain Nasreddine and Steve Spott to replace Todd Nelson and John Stevens. For Laxdal, the news marks a return to the CHL after eight years, last serving there as the head coach of the WHL’s Edmonton Oil Kings from 2010 to 2014. His resume includes an ECHL Kelly Cup win in 2007 and ECHL Coach of the Year award in 2010 as the head coach of the Idaho Steelheads, a pair of WHL championships with the Oil Kings in 2012 and 2014, and a Memorial Cup championship in 2014.
- The AHL’s Toronto Marlies announced via Twitter today that captain and former NHLer Rich Clune has announced his retirement from professional hockey after 16 seasons, moving to a player development role with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Clune hadn’t played in the NHL since 2015-16 saw him play 19 games with the Maple Leafs, but since then, he’d been an alternate captain or captain for the Marlies, providing an important leadership voice and mentoring the Leafs’ prospects. Clune joins Toronto’s player development department headed by Dr. Hayley Wickenheiser.
- Former NHLer Rob Klinkhammer is returning to the Chicago Blackhawks organization as an assistant coach with the AHL’s Rockford IceHogs, per a team release. The news marks Klinkhammer’s retirement after he spent the last six seasons playing in the KHL. Klinkhammer, an undrafted free agent, played for Rockford from 2008-09 through 2011-12 and made his NHL debut with the Blackhawks in the 2010-11 season.
Free Agent Profile: Phil Kessel
In his peak throughout the 2010s, Phil Kessel was a consistent 30-goal threat, displaying his electric shooting talent en route to back-to-back Stanley Cup championships with the Pittsburgh Penguins (and with the Toronto Maple Leafs before that). While Kessel’s move to Arizona for the last three seasons may have left him forgotten in some circles, he’s coming off his best season in three years.
Despite a career-low 4.6 shooting percentage, Kessel will pitch his relatively high point total, especially given the poor state of affairs in Arizona, to convince teams he’s still a credible threat. And, looking at his strong play-driving numbers from last season, he may have a point. Despite seeing his ice time dip to its lowest point during his three years in Arizona, Kessel still managed to finish within 11 points of the team lead at age 34.
It’s not often that a 34-year-old is on the open market with a strong reason to invest in a rebound season, but that’s the case with Kessel. Even if his defense hasn’t been pretty lately, it was never a selling point to his game. Considering his career average shooting percentage sits over 10 percent, expecting Kessel to have a stronger offensive season in 2022-23, at least in terms of putting pucks in the net, is a safe bet.
His Stanley Cup pedigree should also make him an attractive option for teams looking for affordable depth to help push them over the hump to a Stanley Cup.
Stats
2021-22: 82 GP, 8-44-52, -24 rating, 40 PIMs, 175 shots, 45.3 CF%, 16:41 ATOI
Career: 1204 GP, 399-557-956, -148 rating, 372 PIMs, 3700 shots, 49.3 CF%, 18:02 ATOI
Potential Suitors
Kessel should find a home before a lot of other veterans are forced to settle for PTOs as training camps begin. While he’s not what he used to be, he still had more than 50 points last season. With his low price tag, he should be an attractive option as teams continue to tinker with their rosters during the month of August.
There could be a spot for him in the bottom six of a retooled Calgary Flames forward group. While Jakob Pelletier is a strong candidate to make a jump to the NHL next season after a strong season in Stockton, Kessel could challenge other veterans such as Milan Lucic or Sean Monahan for playing time at a cheaper price and more goal-scoring upside. He could go Cup-chasing with the Colorado Avalanche as well, as they’ve lost some depth forwards such as Andre Burakovsky and Nicolas Aube-Kubel. He could also stand to be a solid secondary scoring option for the Minnesota Wild after they lost Kevin Fiala.
If he wants to head back East, the New York Rangers, Ottawa Senators, and Florida Panthers are a trio of teams that could use him in their bottom six.
Projected Contract
Kessel came in 23rd on our Top 50 UFAs list in early July. While he likely won’t command the $2MM AAV we predicted at this point, there’s still a solid chance he could earn seven figures and not have to settle for a league minimum deal. It all likely depends on the cap situation of the team Kessel opts to sign with, as after over $90MM in career earnings, per CapFriendly, money likely won’t be a huge factor in his decision.
Looking Back At The First Round Of The 2005 NHL Entry Draft
On this date 17 years ago, the first round of the 2005 NHL Entry Draft was held at the Westin Hotel in Ottawa. It was the league’s first major event since the lockout that cost them the entire 2004-05 season ended just over a week prior, and considering the draft’s top prize, there was added intrigue.
With the lack of regular-season standings to determine the draft order, the league implemented a snake draft system to make things more equitable for teams in later rounds that didn’t fare so well in the draft lottery. One team that did fare well that night, though, was the Pittsburgh Penguins, who cemented a 15-plus year run of success by drafting future captain Sidney Crosby with the first overall pick.
Five players selected that night went on to appear in at least 1,000 NHL games, including Crosby. One was 2022 Stanley Cup Champion Jack Johnson, taken third overall by the Carolina Hurricanes. Johnson never played a single game for Carolina, though, as he was traded the following offseason to the Los Angeles Kings along with defenseman Oleg Tverdovsky in exchange for defenseman Tim Gleason and center Eric Belanger.
Johnson wasn’t the only player from the first round to play meaningful games for the Kings, though. The team selected two-time Stanley Cup champion and future captain Anze Kopitar with the 11th overall selection. Another thousand-gamer was selected directly after him when the New York Rangers picked defenseman Marc Staal 12th overall, while Johnson’s teammate on the 2022 Avalanche, forward Andrew Cogliano, was selected 25th by the Edmonton Oilers.
One name from that night who could still join the 1,000-game club was St. Louis Blues selection and current Washington Capitals forward T.J. Oshie. Taken 24th overall, he only needs 100 more appearances to hit the mark.
Future Stanley Cup-winning skaters weren’t the only future legends drafted that night, though. Two of the greatest goalies in recent memory were drafted that night, with the Montreal Canadiens selecting Carey Price with the fifth overall pick and the Toronto Maple Leafs selecting Tuukka Rask with the 21st overall pick, of course prior to trading him to the Boston Bruins the following season.
Just three players selected that night, all taken within four picks of each other, would never make an NHL appearance. Slovak forward Marek Zagrapan, drafted 13th overall by the Buffalo Sabres, played just three years in the organization with two different AHL affiliates, scoring 20 goals there just once. At 35 years old, Zagrapan is still active, playing the 2022-23 season in the French Ligue Magnus.
Directly after him, the Washington Capitals took Canadian defenseman Sasha Pokulok with the 14th overall pick. The first overage player taken in the draft, he’s arguably the biggest bust of the night. He never spent a full season in the AHL, bouncing up and down between there and the ECHL for four seasons after turning pro in 2006. He failed to make a notable impact in Europe, too, only lasting one season in the DEL (2010-11) before floating around various lower-level leagues in Eastern Europe and Quebec.
Lastly, there’s Canadian winger Alex Bourret, taken by the Atlanta Thrashers at 16th overall. A short but strong power winger, Bourret had a very successful junior career in the QMJHL that just didn’t translate. His North American career fizzled out quickly after a strong start in the AHL, but after being traded twice (first to the Rangers, then to the Coyotes), he had just 14 points in 48 AHL games during his final season there in 2008-09.