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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include a look at some value trades from last season, when the salary cap might start to go up quicker, the 2024 draft class, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two mailbag columns.

DevilShark: Wondering about your perspective on the top few value trades from the past season now with some hindsight. I’m talking about outperforming their cost – irrespective of their teams’ place in the standings (so not the traditional thing where we look at who helped their team win the cup). Which team made out with great value in the margins?

For a full listing of the trades from the 2022-23 league year, click here.  This is the list I’m working off of for this question but I’ll cut it off at any moves made this offseason.

One that came to mind quickly was Montreal acquiring Sean Monahan and the world’s most confusingly-protected first-round pick from Calgary for free.  Monahan showed for a couple of months that he’s still an above-average player and while they weren’t able to flip him as planned at the deadline, things went well enough that he signed for a much more reasonable $2MM.  They should get more value out of him next season and could flip him for another asset or two in-season.  No matter what, they still eventually get the first-round pick as well.  That’s a very good return on a cost of nothing.

Similarly, Carolina using their cap space to pick up Brent Burns with some retention (and Lane Pederson) for Steven Lorentz, Eetu Makiniemi, and a third-round pick is fantastic value.  Burns is still a top-pairing defender and the Hurricanes got him for a depth forward, an okay goalie prospect at a position they had some surplus, and a mid-round pick.  The Hurricanes made out extremely well here.  I’d also like to put Adin Hill for a 2024 fourth-rounder here but by following the rules of your question, I can’t really do that.

In terms of an in-season move, Dallas buying low on Evgenii Dadonov worked out quite well.  They expected he’d bounce back under a familiar head coach in Peter DeBoer and guessed correctly as he became a key secondary contributor both down the stretch and in the playoffs.  The Stars then leveraged his struggles with Montreal into getting Dadonov to take a pretty cheap two-year deal ($2.25MM AAV) that’s $650K lower than what it would have taken to qualify the underperforming forward they traded for him in the first place (Denis Gurianov, who eventually went non-tendered anyway).  They got the short-term upgrade and at least a medium-term one for very little return.

St. Louis getting Jakub Vrana is another under-the-radar one I think warrants a mention.  They picked up him with Detroit retaining 50% of his $5.25MM AAV for last season and next for a seventh-round pick and a minor leaguer.  Vrana scored 10 goals in 20 games down the stretch.  If he even comes close to that type of production next season, the Blues should be able to flip him for much more than that if they find themselves out of the playoff picture.  And if they are in the mix, he should be an important contributor that was acquired for very little.

aka.nda: Which team(s) summer moves have you scratching your head? What do you think those moves suggest about what that team is hoping or expecting to happen? Is there anything they could do on the market that would inspire more confidence?

A couple of Eastern Conference teams come to mind.  Detroit had money to spend and spent it patching a lot of depth holes with the exception of J.T. Compher whose five-year, $25.5MM contract seems overly optimistic that he can produce at the level he did with Colorado last year when injuries pushed him onto the top line.  They went from being a non-playoff team to a better non-playoff team.  To GM Steve Yzerman’s credit, he did well on the Alex DeBrincat and Jeff Petry acquisitions from a value perspective but I still don’t think those move the needle to make them a playoff team.  They’ve spent a lot of money to possibly finish sixth in the division even though their actions think they’re a playoff-caliber squad.  To be fair, I don’t think there’s much they can do either other than bide their time for the top teams to start to lose some of their top talent.

I also wasn’t a big fan of the Islanders’ moves.  Seven years for Pierre Engvall and Scott Mayfield is nothing short of nonsensical, even if it does keep the cap hits at a reasonable amount (and that is an important consideration).  Four years for a 35-year-old backup goalie also falls in that category even if that backup is a pretty good one.  They took a core that squeaked into a playoff spot and didn’t do anything to improve the roster.  They have no cap flexibility to speak of to try to improve.  Sure, they’ll be in the Wild Card mix again but was locking up secondary players to long-term deals really the best course of direction?  Why not concentrate some of Mayfield and Engvall’s money to go after an offensive upgrade that actually addresses a big area of weakness?  GM Lou Lamoriello clearly feels this core is good enough to get in and the team plays a style that can do some damage in the playoffs.  I’m not sure they get there at this point.

jacl: is Benn good for a point per game this year? Ever think we’ll get Seguin back to his old self? it’s been years since he’s been any good and when centering his own line, it never produces.

Generally, players in their 30s don’t have resurgent seasons.  Jamie Benn bucked that trend, going from 46 points in 2021-22 to 78 points last year.  Fewer players in this situation go on to then improve upon those numbers the following year.  I don’t think Benn will be an exception to that idea either.  His 17.2 shooting percentage was among the tops in the league last season and is at a rate that many would qualify as unsustainable.  That means his 33-goal total is probably going down and with Wyatt Johnston set to push for more minutes as well as newcomer Matt Duchene, I expect Benn’s 45 assists to also go down.  I could see him in the 50-point range which would still be an improvement over his post-pandemic numbers.  That wouldn’t be a great return on his contract but he’d still be an important part of their attack.

As for Tyler Seguin, I don’t see him getting back to the days of him hovering around the point-per-game mark.  He was a top-line fixture at that point in his career.  He isn’t now and the Stars are probably hoping they’re not in a situation where he’s pressed into that duty.  Seguin is a secondary part of their attack now and those players typically don’t light up the scoresheet.  If he continues to produce around the 50-point mark in a middle-six role within the framework of a deep attack, they should be fine.

Unclemike1526: I know the Cap only went up about $1 million this year. I also keep hearing the Cap is going to rise quite a bit in the near future according to the owners. About how much are they saying it’s supposed to go up and when? I think it’s time Hockey joined the ranks of other Pro sports. I just want to know what they’re saying, so I’ll know just how much I’ll be disappointed when it doesn’t happen. Thanks!

The drag in the growth of the Upper Limit of the salary cap in recent years is tied to the pandemic.  That shortened season, the players received their full salaries but with games being canceled and restrictions on attendance, revenues plummeted.  In the CBA is a rule that says players and owners have a 50/50 split of Hockey Related Revenue (HRR) and that season, it wasn’t even close.  That created a ‘debt’ to be repaid to the owners, a clawback of sorts to eventually get the split from that season back to 50/50.

In the 2020 CBA extension, it was agreed that the cap would only go up by $1MM until that debt was repaid.  As of today, that debt is not entirely repaid which is why the cap only moved from $82.5MM to $83.5MM for 2023-24.  However, they’re really close to paying that off which should come this coming season.  At that point, there is a minimum increase to the cap defined as follows from the 2020 NHL CBA Memorandum of Understanding:

Except for the 2026-27 League Year, minimum year-over-year increase in the Upper Limit is the lesser of 2.5% and the trailing two-year average HRR growth percentage. (measured using Final HRR from the League Year four years prior, Final HRR from the League Year three years prior, and Preliminary HRR from two years prior and after taking into account any FX impact adjustments).

For simplicity, let’s use the 2.5% number which would take the cap up to a minimum of $85.59MM in 2024-25 and $87.73MM in 2025-26.  Any further jumps would be tied to increases in HRR which is harder to forecast.  I don’t anticipate a massive jump for 2024-25 as with quite a few teams in a tough spot with their regional rights, they’re either losing their deals altogether to move to an in-house production or will be negotiating cheaper contracts.  That won’t spin HRR in a negative direction but I think it will slow the anticipated growth.

The NHL won’t be getting to the cap levels of the NBA or NFL, however.  Those leagues have TV contracts worth more than the NHL’s entire revenue stream combined and I don’t sense a significant growth in TV ratings down the road that could allow the NHL to get that type of lucrative TV money.  The cap will be going up more than $1MM per year moving forward but it’s still going to check in well below those other leagues.

Emoney123: Who are the watch candidates in the 2024 draft for Flyers since it appears likely another rough season with a potential top-5 pick as well the 1st-round pick from Florida and 2nd-round picks from Columbus and LA? Celebrini seems headed towards #1, who could be other options? Hopefully the light at the end of the tunnel is not a train.

Right now, Macklin Celebrini seems to be the early consensus first pick.  He’s going to be challenged by Cole Eiserman, a high-end goal-scoring threat.  Ivan Demidov is an early wild card, a player who set the MHL (Russian junior league) record for most points as a 17-year-old.  But as we all know, Russian-born players have slipped at times in recent years.  On the back end, Artyom Levshunov and Sam Dickenson are the two top early candidates in a class that is expected to feature more blueliners than usual going within the lottery.  While it’s way too early to start ranking players, these five seem to be close to the consensus top five.

Generally speaking, this is not perceived as a particularly strong draft class compared to the 2023 one and some scouts appear to prefer the 2025 class.  Again, though, this can all certainly change.  If Philadelphia winds up with a high selection in June, they’re going to get a quality player, perhaps just not the franchise type of player that Chicago just selected.

Justajaysfan: How do you think Vegas will do this season? Is Adin Hill able to carry his success from last year’s playoffs into this season and be able to perform like a number 1?

I’m going to flip the order of these and talk about Hill first.  I’m not particularly bullish on him being a true number one goaltender but his career-high in regular season games played is 27.  Yes, he carried a starting workload for a good chunk of the playoffs but there’s a difference between that and being a six-month starter.  I don’t think he’ll be able to play at his playoff level (.932 SV%) over a full season, however.  The good news is that he shouldn’t have to.

Lost in the talk about Hill and his eventual re-signing is that the starting goalie from last season (Logan Thompson) is now healthy so they don’t need Hill to play at that level.  If the two play like they did a year ago when they each posted a .915 SV% during the regular season, the Golden Knights should once again be a contender for a top spot in the West.

Vegas is bringing back the majority of its Cup-winning group with Reilly Smith being the notable exception so they should be well-positioned to try to contend.  Edmonton could give them a run for their money (especially if they can find a way to get even a bit better of a performance between the pipes) and if Los Angeles gets better goaltending than I think they have, they could get in the mix as well.  I’m not going to predict a Stanley Cup repeat – it is still the summer with moves left to be made – but they should be in contention once again.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the increasing willingness to have a three-goalie system, how the Central Division could shake out this coming season, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag or watch for it in our final one from this set of questions.

Grocery stick: How do teams see the goalie situation right now? We’ve seen the Golden Knights win the Stanley Cup with Hill, Brossoit, and Thompson. The Panthers also relied on three different goalies in different stages of the season, reaching the Final.

Are teams trying to re-create a three-goalie situation on purpose now? How does a #3 goalkeeper stay match ready if he is not waivers exempt? Do teams need “timely” injuries to make a three-goalie rotation work? And what teams could go for a three-goalie rotation this season?

I don’t think teams are necessarily aiming for a three-goalie rotation by design.  Vegas was forced into that with injuries while Florida got to that point with Spencer Knight needing to take a leave of absence (and Sergei Bobrovsky really struggling for a time).  Truly, neither of those teams really had a three-man rotation either; only two were healthy and/or available for the majority of the season.

You note the issue with keeping that third-stringer fresh which is why most teams don’t see it as a viable long-term option.  After a few weeks, they’re asking that goalie to take a conditioning assignment to the AHL to stay fresh.  But that can only be done twice in a season and not all players agree to the request.  If a team tries to play three goalies more evenly, no one will be happy with their playing time.  As you termed it, timely injuries is the way to really make it work.

I think what we’ve seen over the last couple of years is teams placing a higher level of importance on who their third-stringer is.  Now, it’s not just a long-time AHL veteran that’s content to come up and sit on the bench for a few weeks if someone goes down; teams are looking for someone that can come in and play.  I wouldn’t necessarily classify that as a true three-goalie situation though.

One team that I think will go that route is Carolina.  Pyotr Kochetkov is still waiver-exempt for one more year and I think the Hurricanes will try to give him a bunch of starts in the AHL and then spot him some NHL action when they have an open roster spot and want to give one of Frederik Andersen or Antti Raanta a night off.  (Although, with their injury history, there may very well be other opportunities on top of that.)

If Philadelphia starts Samuel Ersson in the minors, they could be another team in that situation.  Maybe Dustin Wolf gets some spot starts here and there in Calgary and if Alex Stalock beats out Lukas Dostal in Anaheim, Dostal could still see some NHL appearances spotted in.  In each of these situations, it’s a waiver-exempt goalie that’s part of the future in that situation, not a proven veteran.  That’s where the three-goalie structure by design makes the most sense.

Nha Trang: Heh, it’s time for my annual question now: who’s the guy who comes from out of nowhere to be a serious impact player this season?

Well, last year’s pick didn’t go quite as well as my one from the year before (Tage Thompson) although Taylor Raddysh hit 20 goals with Chicago in 2022-23 which isn’t bad for someone who had a sparing role with Tampa Bay for most of 2021-22.

Last year, I put in a self-imposed criterion that a player couldn’t be in the top 300 in scoring.  Otherwise, that player wouldn’t exactly be coming out of nowhere.  That takes some viable candidates off the table and certainly increases the level of difficulty of this question.

I’m going to go with Boston’s Morgan Geekie.  Here’s a player that only has 22 career goals to his name over parts of four NHL seasons although only two of those have been in a regular role.  Both of those campaigns were with Seattle where he spent a lot of time on the fourth line.  That shouldn’t be the case in Boston.

Due to the retirements of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, the Bruins don’t exactly have great depth down the middle.  At the moment, Geekie projects as their third-line center which is already a step up.  He was a scorer in the WHL.  He has 93 points in 130 AHL games which isn’t too shabby by any stretch.  I could see him making a push for 20 goals next season which would be great production from someone in the bottom six that has yet to reach the double-digit mark in a single season.  Couple that with him generally being on the happy side of 50% at the faceoff dot and him showing last year that he can cover some time on the penalty kill and Geekie could wind up being a pretty impactful player for Boston.

If you want a couple of real longshot wild cards, I’ll suggest San Jose’s Jacob Peterson and Arizona’s Michael Carcone.  Peterson didn’t look out of place in a top-six role with the Sharks down the stretch after spending most of the year in the minors.  If he makes the team in that role, he could surprise.  Carcone, meanwhile, has lit it up in the AHL but a strong showing at the Worlds with Canada earned him a two-year, one-way deal.  I’m not sure he’s going to score enough to really qualify as a good answer for this question but he could become a capable bottom-six winger at the age of 27 and many years in the minors.

Weasel 3: Honest evaluation of PLD’s chances providing any surplus value on his extension please.

In the short term, I don’t see much of a window for that to happen.  He’s likely to be on the second line for a year or two and those players generally don’t produce enough to provide surplus value on a contract worth $8.5MM per season.  That isn’t to say he won’t have an impact – Dubois definitely will – but I don’t think anyone will be calling his deal a bargain.

Longer term, however, I can see a pathway to surplus value.  If he can up his production to a point per game level while asserting himself more physically, now we’re talking about a center in or around the top 20 at his position with an element that few other middlemen provide.  He’d be a power forward getting paid market value, not the typical premium that power forwards get.  In that sense, then, he’d be providing some surplus value.

The other option to getting positive value on Dubois’ contract is if the Upper Limit really starts to rise.  If we see a few jumps in the cap, salaries around the league will only go up.  If those increases push 60 and 70-point players up to this price point, Dubois could provide some surplus value assuming his production improves following the swap.

At this point, I’m not sure I’d qualify the idea of Dubois providing surplus value to the Kings as probable.  But there are a couple of plausible ways that it could happen.  I don’t think Los Angeles is really expecting that to happen.  If he gives them 60-70 points per season, they’ll be pleased with the contract, even if it is one that winds up being a little overpriced in the end.

blues1967: How do you see the Central shaking out? I think Colorado and Dallas are clear front runners, Arizona and Chicago bring up the rear, and the other four will battle it out in the middle. Not sure who has the advantage between the Blues, Wild, Preds and Jets.

Dallas and Colorado are certainly the class of the division.  Colorado won the division by a point last season but at this point, I’m inclined to hand the early edge to the Stars with the Avs in second.  I don’t expect there to be a third team in that group like Minnesota was last season.

I do, however, lean toward the Wild being the third seed still.  I expect their goaltending to take a step back but I think their offense will be a bit more successful than a year ago when they were 22nd.  That should offset some of the goaltending give-back and keep them in.

As for who the top Wild Card contender might be, I’d go with St. Louis.  I think Jordan Binnington will be better and if not, Joel Hofer can push for more playing time.  Their offensive depth is better than it might seem at first glance and they have one of the better defense groups still.  They could surprise some teams.

Nashville and Winnipeg have definitely taken steps back.  On paper, the Jets could very well push for the third seed still but with a pair of core veterans on expiring deals, it’s hardly a guarantee they’re there for the entire season.  Meanwhile, I expect that the Predators are going to struggle to score in a big way.  Right now, I could be convinced to put Arizona ahead of them and then Chicago will likely be at the bottom even with Connor Bedard in the fold.

jacl: The Stars win the Stanley Cup this year. Am I right or am I right? I think Johnston gets 35 goals easily. They have a lot of good young talent that should be ready for a role on the team.

Generally speaking, with questions about a team or the field, I’ll go with the field.  But Dallas is a legitimate contender, I’ll go that far.  Their attack is quite deep (deep enough that makes me think Wyatt Johnston isn’t going to check in quite that high in goals in his sophomore season) so they should be near the top of the conference in that department.  Jake Oettinger is a high-end goaltender.  That’s two of the three they’re in really good shape in.

The back end is where I’m still concerned, however.  It was a weak spot at times last year and they’ve done nothing of much consequence.  Gavin Bayreuther replaced Colin Miller and well, that’s it.  They’re clearly banking on Thomas Harley stepping into a key full-time role and Nils Lundkvist taking a big step forward.  It’s possible that both happen but that’s certainly on the optimistic side.

The reality is that behind Miro Heiskanen and Esa Lindell, things thin out quickly.  It was a problem in the playoffs when Ryan Suter was asked to play big minutes, a role he’s not suited for at the age of 38.  If GM Jim Nill can find a way to add an impact top-four defender, that just might be the final piece of the puzzle to give a real shot at going all the way.  With their cap situation, that move won’t be coming for a while.

KRB: The Capitals may have got the steal of the draft in #40 pick Andrew Cristall. And I’ll guess that he plays in the NHL sooner, rather than later. The reason why is because at the start of the 2024-25 season, he’ll be 19, too young for the AHL, but probably too good for the WHL. So he’s a Cap then. Thoughts?

I was surprised to see Cristall slip that deep in the draft as he felt like a worthwhile gamble in the 20s for a team looking to take a big swing on a player who, if all pans out, could be a quality top-six NHL winger.  I liked that pick for them a lot.  But he’s undersized and there are questions about how his game will translate to the pros.  Some smaller players find a way to make a mark but a lot don’t.

I get your point about Washington possibly not wanting to send Cristall back for his 19-year-old season as he won’t have much left to show at the major junior level.  But is he going to be able to hold down at least a third-line spot with the Capitals that season?  (I wouldn’t want any junior-aged prospect toiling away on the fourth line from a development standpoint.)  That I’m not so sure about.  I think they will want his defensive game to get a lot better so that Cristall isn’t exploited in that regard in the NHL.  Can that level of improvement happen in the WHL?  It’s possible but not probable as Kelowna will be wanting him to focus on his offense, not so much the defense.

There isn’t a great solution.  Washington I’m sure would love to send Cristall to the AHL in 2024-25 but the CHL agreement isn’t going away anytime soon.  Between the NHL and WHL, I think they’ll play it safe and ultimately send him back down and then get him to Hershey the following year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.