PHR Mailbag: Red Wings, Flyers, Devils Goaltending, Canucks, Senators Coaching Staff, Vincent
With plenty of questions submitted, we’re going to split the mailbag into three this time with the bonus edition running during the holiday break in the NHL calendar. Topics in this edition include who New Jersey should try to target for a goalie upgrade, Vancouver’s surprisingly strong first couple of months, and more.
gowings2008: The Red Wings clearly need to address their goaltending and could probably use another solid d-man or two. What are some options that Yzerman could reasonably explore to address those issues? It looks like Jonatan Berggren is available for trade, he could maybe be a key piece heading in the other direction in a trade.
I’m going to answer these out of order. Let’s talk about Berggren first. He’s a decent young player but if he’s the key piece of a trade proposal, they’re probably not getting a needle-moving veteran in return. That’s not to say he doesn’t have value but I’m not sure he’d be more valuable in an offer than a first-round pick. He’d get Detroit a decent veteran but it’d be more of a secondary addition, maybe a fourth or fifth defender using your wish list. Personally, I think they’d be better off playing him in the NHL and seeing if there’s another level he can get to.
As for the goaltending, I agree that it can be upgraded on but I don’t know how many assets they want to spend doing so. I’m going to touch on this in another question in a bit more detail but the goalie market isn’t the strongest right now. Yzerman could make a move for one of the few options out there but there’s no guarantee that player will come in from a different system and be materially better. A few points on a save percentage compared to Ville Husso is definitely doable but is that the big difference-maker in the playoffs if they can get there?
To that end, the idea of making the blueline better makes a lot of sense in theory; a better back end could fix some of Husso’s struggles between the pipes. But here’s the problem. Beyond Shayne Gostisbehere (who they’re probably not moving), the rest of their veteran blueliners are all signed beyond this season. That probably takes the Red Wings out of the rental market for defensemen as a lot of sellers won’t want to take a contract with term back for an expiring; they’d rather have the cap space. Jeff Petry might have a bit of value somewhere being below $2.4MM but Detroit can’t pay down that deal any further. Maybe flip him and then go for a rental? But even then, there’s trade protection that could complicate that idea.
But since you’re asking for some specific players, let’s look at other blueliners with term where Detroit could try to send a veteran back as a salary offset and then a key future asset or two. San Jose’s Mario Ferraro comes to mind as someone who could be an upgrade while his salary is around what some of the veterans they would need to move make. If Pittsburgh wants to shake up their secondary core, Marcus Pettersson could be a target as well. Bigger scale, I could see them sniffing around the idea of a sign-and-trade with Noah Hanifin although the acquisition cost would be a lot higher obviously. With Simon Edvinsson now up, it wouldn’t shock me if he gets a look to see if he can help stabilize things.
Black Ace57: What do the Flyers do? Even with their success this year should they be buyers considering they are still trying to rebuild? Do they stand pat? Even with their winning do they trade off pieces?
For the next month or two, they should stand pat. I don’t think this is a team that’s going to hold onto a playoff spot for too long so spending assets to try to cling to a postseason position doesn’t make much sense. At the same time, you don’t want to sell early either as there’s a lot of value in getting their younger players experience playing in a meaningful (for now, at least) playoff push.
Closer to the trade deadline in March, I’d deal from their defensive depth. We know Sean Walker and Nick Seeler are getting plenty of interest already and Marc Staal played a regular role for Florida through their playoff run last season so there might be a market for him. Clearing them off the roster will open up some more consistent playing time for the likes of Yegor Zamula and Ronnie Attard, among others. If they’re willing to pay down a decent chunk of Cam Atkinson’s deal, I could see there being a bit of interest in him as well. There’s nothing wrong with stockpiling some extra picks at this point in the process.
They’re also going to need to decide what to do with Morgan Frost. Right now, I think he still has some real trade value as young centers are always going to pique the interest of rebuilding teams. A player-for-player swap, getting someone who is a similar age with multiple years of team control, would make sense. But the longer he’s in and out of the lineup, the more his value decreases. I still think he can be a capable secondary contributor so I’m not saying move him now but they would be wise to make a decision on him regarding if he’s expendable or part of the plan sooner rather than later.
SpeakOfTheDevils: Who is the answer in net for the Devils???
Salary cap aside, I’d say John Gibson. I think playing behind a much better team with win-now expectations will get him back to being at least a little above average for the next couple of seasons. With New Jersey in a win-now window, that fits. Of course, the salary cap does play a big factor here and the fact he’s signed through 2026-27 at $6.4MM per season can’t be overlooked. With over $67MM in commitments for next season already per CapFriendly, adding another big ticket on their books will certainly complicate things. Of course, some of that can be offset in the short term by sending Vitek Vanecek and his $3.4MM AAV through 2024-25 the other way.
The problem here for New Jersey is one I alluded to earlier. In a season where good goaltending is hard to find, those who have it aren’t going to want to move it. Accordingly, the goalie market simply isn’t that deep in terms of who’s available. Jake Allen is a perfectly serviceable veteran. Is a perfectly serviceable veteran what they need right now? Probably not; I think they need more of an impact piece.
But who is that impact piece? Most of the netminders speculated to be available are of the depth variety. Daniel Vladar probably isn’t a difference-maker. If Detroit moved one of their three, James Reimer isn’t the solution. Spencer Martin could be had but he’s no better than what they have now. Maybe Karel Vejmelka moves the needle enough but the asking price is going to be rather high as someone with an above-average save percentage and a pretty good contract, one that carries a $2.725MM through the end of next season. Barring a huge return, the Coyotes have minimal incentive to move him, especially since they’re in a playoff spot at the moment.
Plan A for New Jersey is that Vanecek turns things around and Akira Schmid goes back to his 2022-23 form and that’s the answer in net, one that doesn’t require doing much. But if they want an impact netminder that could make a difference, I think Gibson is who they have to go after. It’ll take a salary offset (Vanecek) going the other way. It might even require compensating Anaheim for three-plus years of some level of retention so it won’t be easy. But if that’s what they need, it’s a move they need to find a way to make.
blues1967: Is Vancouver for real? I’m not a Canucks fan, but I’ve been impressed with their play. They are overdue for some success, as is Buffalo.
I don’t quite know what to make of the Canucks. They weren’t as bad a team as they were from last season so some improvement was reasonable to expect. But to be among the top teams in the league more than two months into the season? I’m not sure that was expected and I’m not sold that it’s entirely sustainable.
Brock Boeser is scoring at a torrid clip, one that’s entirely unsustainable at around 25%. They have two other forwards over 20% in a league where the average is generally around 8%. J.T. Miller is nearly at 20%, well above his career average. This is a good offense but not the best attack in the league. I keep expecting them to slip a bit in that regard and suspect it will happen at some point.
One element that does give me some confidence with regards to staying power is their goaltending. Thatcher Demko is back to being a high-level netminder and he has the ability to stay at that level or at least close to it. I’m not sure Casey DeSmith can maintain a .920 SV% but he’s an above-average backup who gives Vancouver a chance to win pretty much every game.
I’m ready to call them a playoff team but are they a contender? I wouldn’t go that far just yet as I think their offense is due to take a step or two back at some point in the second half of the season.
Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag
The upcoming holiday roster freeze is a built-in demarcation line as we cross into the second trimester of the regular season. Teams have a clearer picture of where they stand, leading some to make significant changes to their coaching staff while others invest more resources in exploring the trade market.
As we prepare to turn the calendar to 2024 and start hearing some pre-deadline trade rumors in earnest, it’s good timing for another edition of the PHR Mailbag. In part one of our last edition, our Brian La Rose examined how the Blue Jackets front office could navigate another disappointing season and potential moves for the Oilers. Part two investigated just what’s been going on with the Wild’s roller-coaster season and how the Flames can shift more responsibility to their incoming wave of young talent.
You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter/X or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend.
What Your Team Is Thankful For: Nashville Predators
As the holiday season approaches, PHR will be taking a look at what teams are thankful for in 2023-24. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Nashville Predators.
Who are the Predators thankful for?
Saros is a franchise goalie, even if he hasn’t been playing like one this year. The 28-year-old has struggled to start the season and is in danger of finishing with a save percentage below .914 for the first time in his career as he currently sits at a .908 save percentage.
Save percentage doesn’t always paint a clear picture of a goaltender’s level of play, however, a deeper dive into Saros numbers shows that his Goals Saved Above Expected is sitting at -3.2 according to Money Puck. To give that number some context, Saros finished last season with a Goals Saved Above Expected of 46.7 which led the league and was well above Vezina Trophy winner Linus Ullmark.
Saros may have struggled in 25 games this year, but his body of work over the last seven years is hard to ignore. He has been in the conversation for the Vezina Trophy in each of the last three years and basically willed the Predators into the playoffs in two of those three seasons.
The most incredible thing about Saros play is that at a time when teams are coveting taller goaltenders, Saros has put up elite numbers while standing just 5’11″ tall and weighing just 180 pounds.
If Saros can find his game this season, it could be a real game-changer for a team that has been able to remain in the playoff picture despite not getting the goaltending from Saros that they’ve become accustomed to.
What are the Predators thankful for?
The 2023 trade deadline.
The Pittsburgh Penguins and Nashville Predators made a trade back in March 2023 that couldn’t have been better for the Predators and worse for the Penguins. Pittsburgh sent a 2023 second-round pick to Nashville for Mikael Granlund and his $5MM cap hit. Granlund failed to fit in with the Penguins picking up just a goal and four assists in 21 games as Pittsburgh missed the playoffs for the first time since 2006. Granlund was then a salary cap dump in the Penguins’ move for Erik Karlsson in August. The trade was likely the move that sealed the fate for the Penguins’ previous management regime who were terminated shortly after the season. Nashville was the benefactor of a good draft pick, and valuable cap space that was at a premium at the time. They used the savings in the Granlund trade to re-tool this offseason with some veteran free agent additions.
The Granlund move was a solid piece of business but was hardly their most notable move. The Predators made a trade with the Tampa Bay Lightning in which they moved forward Tanner Jeannot in exchange for Cal Foote and a 2025 first-round pick (Top 10 protected), a second-round pick in 2024, and a third, fourth and fifth-round pick in 2023. Jeannot was a very effective forward for the Predators but was in the midst of a down year and due an extension in the offseason. The trade raised more than a few eyebrows as Nashville was able to extract full value for Jeannot, and then some.
The Predators also moved on from long-time defender Matthias Ekholm when they dealt him to the Edmonton Oilers. In return, Nashville was able to acquire veteran Tyson Barrie, Reid Schaefer as well as a first-round pick in 2023 and a fourth-round pick in 2024.
It was likely a difficult decision for Nashville to make, but opting to move on from several veterans at last year’s trade deadline could pay massive dividends down the road and may allow Nashville to retool on the fly rather than going into a full rebuild. So far this season, they have been able to remain competitive while having improved their farm system in the process. It is something that few teams have been able to do and it’ll be interesting to see how Nashville fares going forward.
What would the Predators be even more thankful for?
A long-term direction.
The Predators had a very confusing offseason after having a spectacular trade deadline. Barry Trotz was brought in to run the club and he made some interesting moves to clear up the Predators cap situation by trading Ryan Johansen to the Colorado Avalanche in a retained salary transaction and then buying out the expensive long-term deal of Matt Duchene. The Johansen move made sense as he wasn’t anywhere close to an $8MM player, however, Duchene still had some value and was just a year removed from a 43-goal season. He was the Predators second-leading scorer last season on a team that struggled to put the puck in the net.
The thought was that perhaps Nashville was going to bottom out and go into a rebuild, however, Trotz quickly put that notion to rest on July 1st when he signed Ryan O’Reilly, Luke Schenn and Gustav Nyquist to multi-year deals that used up the savings on Duchene and Johansen.
In a vacuum, there was nothing wrong with the signings, but when coupled with the curious buyout of Duchene it made for a bit of a confusing offseason for many people looking at the situation from the outside. The Predators theoretically lost some offense in the flurry of transactions, and for a team that already had struggled to score goals, it was a bit of a headscratcher.
The good news is that the offense has improved dramatically this season, and the teams’ overall play has as well as they currently sit in a Wild Card spot in the Western Conference which has put the conversation about the team’s direction to bed for now. However, if they falter down the stretch it could start to become a question once again as they head into the summer of 2024.
What should be on the Predators holiday wish list?
A Tyson Barrie trade.
Barrie was a throw-in last year when the Edmonton Oilers traded with the Predators for defenseman Ekholm. Barrie and his $4.5MM cap hit were included in the deal so that Edmonton could make the money work and facilitate the deal. Since coming over to Nashville, Barrie has had nowhere close to the kind of offensive impact he was having at the previous NHL stops during his 13-year NHL career.
Barrie has reportedly asked for a trade in recent weeks and the Predators have given the veteran permission to seek one out with other teams. Barrie and Predators management have both commented to the media that they didn’t think he was a good fit with the Predators after Barrie was a healthy scratch.
Both sides would like to move on, and it would probably be best if they do. At 32 years of age Barrie probably still has a few more years of hockey left in him, and the Predators probably don’t want a player in their dressing room that is hoping to move on to a different organization.
The difficult spot for Nashville when it comes to a trade is that Barrie does come with a pretty big price tag and with just a goal and 10 assists in 28 games, he hasn’t been particularly good this season.
What Your Team Is Thankful For: Montreal Canadiens
As the holiday season approaches, PHR will be taking a look at what teams are thankful for in 2023-24. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Montreal Canadiens.
Who are the Canadiens thankful for?
Mike Matheson has had a tale of two careers.
He was good in his first few seasons in the NHL with the Florida Panthers, showcasing his terrific skating and his ability to carry the puck out of the defensive zone. But shortly after signing an eight-year extension the warts in his game began to show and he became a lightning rod for criticism in the Sunshine State.
It wasn’t long after that Matheson was dealt to the Pittsburgh Penguins along with Colton Sceviour for Patric Hornqvist. Matheson was able to rehabilitate his game and looked like a good fit with the Penguins long-term. However, Penguins general manager Ron Hextall inexplicably wanted to change up the Penguins’ defense and in one day bulldozed his defense core by trading John Marino to New Jersey and Matheson to the Canadiens. Both trades have been a disaster for the Penguins, but the Matheson one stings for several reasons.
Since coming over to Montreal, the 29-year-old Matheson has dressed in 79 games, during that time he has 13 goals and 42 assists and has averaged almost 25 minutes a night in ice-time. He has been a catalyst for the Canadiens offense, and a mentor to many of Montreal’s young defensemen.
Although he has dealt with some injury issues, Matheson has been a driving force for the Canadiens and one that should continue to be an important piece for them in the coming seasons.
What are the Canadiens thankful for?
The Jeff Petry trades.
The Pittsburgh Penguins and Montreal Canadiens made a trade back in July 2022 that sent defenseman Matheson to Pittsburgh in exchange for veteran defenseman Petry and Ryan Poehling. It was a questionable trade at the time for the Penguins as they were giving up a much younger defenseman for a 36-year-old defender with an inflated cap hit. A year after the deal, it’s safe to say that the trade was an absolute heist by the Canadiens. Jeff Petry has been traded twice since the original trade and Poehling was non-tendered and signed with the Philadelphia Flyers.
Petry was traded by the Penguins to the Canadiens this past August in a move that Pittsburgh had to make to facilitate the Erik Karlsson trade. The Penguins traded Petry, goalie Casey DeSmith, forward Nathan Legare and a 2025 second-round pick in exchange for Mike Hoffman and Rem Pitlick. Hoffman was then moved to the Sharks and Pitlick has toiled in the AHL.
The trade was a great move for Montreal to acquire two futures while unloading two bad contracts. But they weren’t done yet. The Canadiens then traded Petry to the Detroit Red Wings for little-used defenseman Gustav Lindstrom and a conditional fourth-round draft pick in 2025. Finally, Montreal was able to complete the trade tree by shipping DeSmith to the Vancouver Canucks for Tanner Pearson and a 2025 third-round pick.
When all was said and done, the Canadiens were able to turn Pitlick, Hoffman, and a retained salary on Petry into Legare, Pearson, Lindstrom, and three 2025 draft picks. It was a creative move by Montreal, that will help them continue to build up their farm system or allow them to acquire additional players should they be more of a contending team in 2025.
What would the Canadiens be even more thankful for?
A Josh Anderson resurgence.
Many critics panned the Canadiens’ trade for Anderson back in October 2020 and for good reason, the trade was followed by the announcement of a seven-year $38.5MM extension that seemed like a massive overpay. In hindsight, it probably was, given that Anderson is carrying a $5.5MM cap hit and hasn’t come close to the 47 points he put up during the 2018-19 season. Since joining Montreal, Anderson has topped out at 32 points (twice), but he did have 40 goals over the two seasons before the start of the 2023-24 season.
This year has seen Anderson struggle more than he has in previous seasons. Through 31 games, the 29-year-old has just four goals and five assists and has been a drag on almost everyone he has played with this season. It’s been a frustrating season for the Burlington, Ontario native, one that he has acknowledged publicly. Just two nights ago, Anderson had an incredible game against the New York Islanders in which he scored two goals and was named the first star of the game. Afterwards, during a post-game interview, Anderson was serenaded by the Canadiens faithful and seemed genuinely humbled by the applause. With any luck, Anderson can use the game to catapult himself back to the heights he experienced when he put up 27 goals with the Columbus Blue Jackets five years ago.
If he can get back to his game, it could go a long way to the Canadiens making an unlikely push for a playoff spot in the ultra-competitive Eastern Conference.
What should be on the Canadiens holiday wish list?
A goal-scoring forward.
The Canadiens forwards need to score more as they rank near the bottom of the NHL in goals and are currently on pace to not have a single 25-goal scorer. Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki both registered 26 goals last year but have just eight each thus far through 31 games, while Sean Monahan and Brendan Gallagher are far removed from the back-to-back 30-goal seasons, they each enjoyed from 2017-2019.
The Canadiens need a game-breaker, which is much easier said than done. Most teams are looking for this type of scorer and they are almost impossible to acquire in today’s NHL. The Canadiens do have a surplus of young defensemen they could choose to trade from, but they would need to find a trading partner that is interested in trading away one of the most coveted pieces in today’s NHL.
The Canadiens have been patient with their rebuild and have made some savvy moves to acquire good young prospects and defensive depth. At some point in the near future, they are going to have to take a risk on an offensively gifted forward. Whether that happens via trade or free agency remains to be seen but they will need to acquire a forward that can put the puck in the net.
What Your Team Is Thankful For: Minnesota Wild
As the holiday season approaches, PHR will be taking a look at what teams are thankful for in 2023-24. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Minnesota Wild.
Who are the Wild thankful for?
Being one of four head coaching changes to take place so far this season, Hynes has helped the Wild turn their season around, albeit as the team still sits seventh in their division and 11th in the Western Conference. Since taking over behind the bench on the team’s November 28th game against the St.Louis Blues, Hynes has led Minnesota to a 7-2-0 record, after starting the year 5-10-4 under former-head coach, Dean Evason.
Time will only tell how well this experiment will work out for the future of the club, as Hynes’ track record should not breed too much confidence in success. As a head coach in the National Hockey League, Hynes left the New Jersey Devils with a 150-159-45 record after five years, and a 134-96-18 record with the Nashville Predators after four years.
Making the playoffs four times in nine seasons in his career, Hynes has a combined playoff record of 4-15, failing to coach his respective team out of the first round, and failing to coach a team higher than fourth place in their respective division. Hopefully, for the sake of the Wild organization, Hynes can not only turn the team around but also his coaching career at the NHL level.
What are the Wild thankful for?
The future still being bright.
Being one of the older teams in the league this year on average, Minnesota still has a young stockpile in the NHL, with Kirill Kaprizov, Marco Rossi, Matt Boldy, Brock Faber, and Connor Dewar all 26 years old or younger. Even with many veterans on the roster, the Wild still have a solid-looking future compared to other teams around the league.
Aside from those already on the roster, Minnesota has players such as Carson Lambos, Charlie Stramel, and Jesper Wallstedt in waiting who should compete for a roster spot as soon as next preseason. Keeping this in mind, although it may not seem like the roster is ready to compete for a Stanley Cup this year, the Wild are set up relatively well for the future. 
Nevertheless, having strong young talent does not automatically guarantee success in the future, as Minnesota will need to make sure its internal development can increase the ceilings for each one of these players. Furthermore, the team must also be able to put adequate talent around their prospects once they do graduate in the NHL, ensuring no more wasted seasons at the top level.
What would the Wild be even more thankful for?
More cap space.
The largest factor in Minnesota’s lack of cap space is due to the contract buyouts of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, now already three years removed from the monumental move. Still paying the two veterans not to play for the Wild, the team owes the two a combined $14.74MM this season and next, currently accounting for approximately 17.7% of their total cap space.
Impressively, even with the massive cap penalty lasting until the end of next season, Minnesota has still been able to sign high-dollar contracts for Kaprizov, and Boldy, as well as retain core veterans such as Marcus Foligno, Ryan Hartman, and Mats Zuccarello.
It’s a tough situation for the Wild, who likely wouldn’t have had their needle moved forward over the last several years even with Parise and Suter still on the active roster. Nevertheless, one can only wonder that if Minnesota had access to that much more cap space, would this team be anywhere close to the Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, Los Angeles Kings, or Vegas Golden Knights in the Western Conference?
What should be on the Wild holiday wish list?
An effective two-way player.
With the goaltending and defense beginning to play much better under the direction of Hynes, it’s hard not to notice the dreadful special teams play coming out of Minnesota this season, with their powerplay (23rd) and penalty kill (29th) both bottom-ten in the league.
Because of their middling powerplay, the Wild have largely struggled to generate much consistent offense over the year, now failing to average even three goals a game. Although the playoffs may be out of reach, the Wild should attempt to pick up a player who can get the job done on both sides of the puck.
One player who may be available and also fit the mold of being able to play on both sides of the special teams is the captain of the Columbus Blue Jackets, Boone Jenner. Although currently injured, Jenner has largely been known for his work ethic, and at 30 years old and three years left on a relatively affordable contract, would likely fit Minnesota’s competitive timeline much better than Columbus’.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
What Your Team Is Thankful For: Los Angeles Kings
As the holiday season approaches, PHR will be taking a look at what teams are thankful for in 2023-24. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Los Angeles Kings.
Who are the Kings thankful for?
Playing on his sixth different team in as many seasons, the journeyman netminder signed on with Los Angeles as an unrestricted free agent on a one-year, $1MM contract. Believing at the time that Talbot would likely serve as a 1A or a 1B to fellow netminder, Pheonix Copley, Talbot has completely taken over the net for the Kings.
In 20 games played, Talbot holds a 13-5-2 record, as well as a .926 SV% and a 2.02 GAA. Furthermore, 12 of his 19 starts have been registered as Quality Starts according to HockeyReference, meaning he is beating the league average in save percentage in over 60% of his starts.
Last year, with an assortment of goaltenders including Copley, Jonathan Quick, Calvin Petersen, and Joonas Korpisalo, Los Angeles goaltenders were only able to achieve a collective save percentage of .892, before completely bottoming out in the 2022-23 Stanley Cup playoffs. Now with a steady presence between the pipes this season, Talbot has made a case for being the best-value contract signed this past summer.
What are the Kings thankful for?
Patience.
Although it feels more recent, the Kings are now a decade removed from their last Stanley Cup run and still retain two of their aging stars Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty, as well as Quick as recent as last season. Going through some lean seasons since then, Los Angeles has done a great job stockpiling young talent, to go on another run with their franchise legends. 
In the 2020 NHL Draft, the Kings selected forward Quinton Byfield as the second overall selection in the draft, and although he made his NHL debut a year later, Los Angeles demonstrated tremendous patience with Byfield’s development. From 2020-2023, Byfield played in a total of 99 games for the Kings, scoring eight goals and 33 points over that stretch.
Now, and still only 21 years old, Byfield is nearly a point-per-game player, scoring eight goals and 23 points in 27 games, nearly doubling his career totals in about a third of the number of games. Aside from Byfield, Los Angeles is using a similar method with Arthur Kaliyev, Jordan Spence, and Brandt Clarke, hoping to make the most out of every one of their draft selections.
What would the Kings be even more thankful for?
For Father Time to stay away.
As previously mentioned, the Kings are beginning to reap the benefits of many solid draft choices, and demonstrating the patience required to build a winning team through the draft. However, even all these years later, the team still primarily beats to the drum of Kopitar and Doughty.
Even though both franchise icons are in their mid-to-late 30s, Kopitar continues to lead the team in scoring, and Doughty leads all defensemen in scoring within the organization. Unfortunately, for the most part throughout the league and sports in general, Father Time remains undefeated and will ultimately claim Kopitar and Doughty as its victims.
When these two future Hall of Famers decide to call it quits, given their draft and prospect capital accrued over the last several years, Los Angeles should be pretty well set up for the future of the organization. Nevertheless, they would undoubtedly benefit from having these two as long as possible.
What should be on the Kings holiday wish list?
A potential coaching change.
During the Todd McLellan era of Kings history over the last five seasons, Los Angeles has only made the playoffs, losing in the first round each time. This season, with the team currently fifth in goals for per game, and the best team in goals against per game, this Kings team is the most well set up to get the job done this spring.
Reasonably assuming that Los Angeles will eventually make the playoffs for the third time in a row this spring if they are unable to make it out of the first round, there should be serious questions raised about the future of McLellan within the organization.
In 15 seasons spent as a head coach in the National Hockey League before this year, McLellan has coached his team to the playoffs in nine of those seasons, making it as far as the Western Conference Finals twice with the San Jose Sharks back in 2010 and 2011. This season, if they are going to make it to the Stanley Cup, they will most likely have to go through the defending Champions, the Vegas Golden Knights.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
PHR Mailbag: Robertson, Wild, Flames, Goalies, Kings, Bruins, CBA
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Minnesota’s tough start to the season, discussion on if there’s a path for Calgary to retool instead of rebuild, and much more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our mailbag from three weeks ago (apologies for the delay in getting this back half posted).
jacl: What’s happened to Jason Robertson? It seems that you don’t hear his name called during a game at all. You never hear his name called in big situations this year. Am I expecting too much from him this year after his last couple of years?
Expectations should rightfully be quite high for Robertson. You don’t fluke into back-to-back 40-plus-goal seasons which is what he has done the last couple of years. Now, he finished tied for sixth in NHL scoring last year which is a lot harder to repeat, especially on a Dallas team that has a fair bit of balance offensively. If you were expecting 40 goals again from him, I think that would be fair. If you were hoping for another jump in points, then I’d suggest you might have aimed too high.
Robertson has been a bit quiet this year but he’s still hovering around the point-per-game mark. His shooting percentage is still above the NHL average but is a bit below his career average. If you’re looking for a reason for optimism, another percent or two on that front as the season progresses could still give him a shot at a 40-goal pace.
I Wander Off: Dear all-knowing and wise mailbag answer person.
Is it just me or is Murphy’s Law in effect for the Wild this year?
I.e. we all know about the cap struggles but it just seems like every pass, shot, hit, block, blocked shot, or save somehow someway always doesn’t seem to A) connect for a goal or B) goes right into the back of the net.
Sincerely, a diehard Minnesota Wild fan and frustrated State of Hockey resident.
Things certainly look a little better now following the recent coaching change at least. Yes, they’ve had some misfortune but there were some risks heading into the season.
Filip Gustavsson had a great year last season. No question about that. But before that, he was struggling to establish himself at the NHL level. They had no choice but to re-sign him but there was always going to be the risk that he went back to his previous form which is what has happened so far. I think he’ll get better but luck or no luck, they’re not going to have the same level of goaltending as a year ago. Marc-Andre Fleury just turned 39 and had to slow down at some point. Again, I think he can be better but perhaps he’s not a quality platoon piece anymore. There was always going to be some risk between the pipes as a result so it’s not just Murphy’s Law on that front.
They also didn’t do much to upgrade their offense over the summer. (Yes, their cap situation played a big role in that.) But they had a mediocre attack last year so them being near the bottom of the league on that front wasn’t entirely unforeseeable either. Matt Boldy struggling stung and Kirill Kaprizov got off to a slow start which didn’t help things but this is where the lack of depth hurt them.
For me, Minnesota is a bubble team. I don’t think they’re as bad as their record but they’re also probably not a 103-point group either. Is that all Murphy’s Law? Maybe a bit but after getting some best-case results last season, it could also be things normalizing a bit.
Zakis: What was GMBG thinking with the Hartman, Mats, and Foligno extensions?
Also, what are the chances the Wild sign Kirill to another extension, and what would that look like with the cap purportedly going up?
And why won’t the Wild play their highly touted youngsters?
When GM Bill Guerin signed Ryan Hartman, Mats Zuccarello, and Marcus Foligno to new deals, it was a case of GM believing in his core group a little too much. Remove any possibility of in-season uncertainty and just get them done. He thought this was a 103-point squad once again and with that logic, getting some important veterans locked up made a lot of sense. Of course, the mistake was believing that last season was repeatable and possibly even built upon.
Having said that, I’m not going to pile on too much. I have no issue with the Zuccarello signing from a value perspective. Hartman’s, in a vacuum, is defensible if you think he can get back to his form from a couple of years ago. Even if he’s in the 40-45-point range, it’s not bad and he’s a center, a spot they don’t have much depth at. So I can’t criticize those a ton. Foligno’s on the other hand, that one felt like an immediate overpayment.
A lot can happen between now and the time that Kaprizov is even eligible to sign an extension which isn’t until July 2025. If they’re in contention and use the cap room created by the high buyout costs going away, I think there’s a reasonable chance he’d consider it. I’ll say 40% for now as testing the market could be tempting. I’m not as bullish on the revenue projections as the NHL is in its public proclamations (attendance is down in quite a few buildings and a lot of teams are facing reduced regional TV rights which will hurt HRR) but maybe the trailing years in the lag formula (which is how the cap will be set moving forward) are stronger than I think. At this point, I think Kaprizov would be targeting something above Artemi Panarin’s $11.643MM AAV, assuming he remains a top-end player. Let’s say $12.25MM for, well, as many years as he’s willing to sign for.
As for not playing the highly-touted youngsters, I don’t see that. Marco Rossi is playing top-six minutes most nights. Brock Faber is over 23 minutes a night on the back end. Boldy is a regular in the top six. Liam Ohgren and Danila Yurov are under contract overseas and aren’t quite NHL-ready. Carson Lambos is just getting his feet wet in the pros and counting on a 21-year-old goalie in Jesper Wallstedt would be highly risky. The ones that aren’t playing are either not available or not quite ready. There are concerns that I have with this roster but not playing the top youngsters isn’t on that list. Their time is coming soon but not yet.
kyzr: How could Calgary avoid a total teardown and retool to be competitive? If Hanifin and/or Tanev are moved, who could the Flames trade for to be the replacement? Thanks!
This is a scenario that doesn’t come up too often anymore as player-for-player shakeup moves don’t happen too often. The fact that both players are pending unrestricted free agents doesn’t help either as these types of swaps typically involve pieces that are either signed or at least under club control for a while. That can be managed by allowing early extension discussions though and, in Hanifin’s case, perhaps a sign-and-trade to allow for the eighth year.
I suppose the other way would be to move the veterans for future assets and then flip those or other future pieces for win-now help. But even that doesn’t happen. Generally, when teams are in the middle, they’re either loading up or selling off, not making moves to try to hang around the middle.
But I’ll play along. The Islanders feel like a team that could do something like this with Noah Hanifin with someone like Alexander Romanov being part of the return. Romanov is hovering around the 22-minute mark for ice time, a career high and could slot into Calgary’s top four. I could see the Blues having interest in something like that with one of their $6.5MM blueliners (likely Torey Krug) being involved but that might not be a good idea for the Flames. Maybe Seattle with Jamie Oleksiak coming back who has another year left?
The problem for Calgary or really any team entertaining a scenario like this is that the teams that want a player like Hanifin or Chris Tanev don’t want to subtract anyone of consequence from their roster. They want to add that extra piece or two, not make more of a lateral swap which is what your idea entails. If the Flames wind up moving those two – and I think they will – I suspect it will be more of a traditional seller type of move, not a half-in, half-out type of approach.
Ripper Magoo: How many goalies would you give a 7 x 7 contract to?
This is a tough one that really made me think. There aren’t many goalies who are safe bets to have seven straight above-average seasons which means there’s a case to be made that none of them should get one. But there are a handful I think I’d take the chance on.
Jake Oettinger (DAL) – He’s already in the top ten at least for goalies and a seven-year deal in July would bring him to 32, more than young enough to still play at a top level. I think the Stars would love to get him at this price but it’s going to cost more than that when his deal is up for real in 2025 when he’ll be an RFA with arbitration rights.
Igor Shesterkin (NYR) – If he was a free agent this summer, seven years takes him to his age-35 season. Lots of goalies are still going strong at that age. He’s a high-end netminder that’s young enough to build around.
Ilya Sorokin (NYI) – There would be a bit more risk here as he’s a year older than Shesterkin but his track record is big enough to show me that he’ll be a high-end starter for at least most of that deal. Plus, that’d be an upgrade on his current contract.
The other one I’ve flip-flopped on is Boston’s Jeremy Swayman. The track record isn’t there yet but at the same time, if the Bruins wanted to sign him to a long-term deal this summer, I think the asking price would be in this range so I have to seriously consider him for this scenario. I know Connor Hellebuyck just got more than that but I’d be leery at seven years at this price point with the workload he has carried over the years.
What Your Team Is Thankful For: Florida Panthers
As the holiday season approaches, PHR will be taking a look at what teams are thankful for in 2023-24. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Florida Panthers.
Who are the Panthers thankful for?
Tkachuk has not been himself thus far this season, but it is hard to fault him after he suffered a broken sternum in game 4 of the Stanley Cup finals in June. He valiantly tried to play in game 5 but could only take a few shifts before he had to shut himself down. He went through rehabilitation and recovery in the summer and although he was ready for training camp, it’s hard to believe that he had a full summer of his regular training regimen.
Tkachuk hasn’t been bad this year, he just hasn’t lived up to the level of play he’s shown over the past few seasons when he has been regularly in the conversation for league MVP. The 26-year-old has just five goals and 15 assists in 27 games thus far this season but has continued to be a dominant force at even strength. Although his goal numbers aren’t what they’ve been the last two seasons, he continues to drive the play and is snake bit by a career-low shooting percentage of 4.8%. Tkachuk is a career 12.7% shooter, meaning that he should see a surge here in the coming months unless his broken sternum is still a cause for concern. That doesn’t appear to be the case though as Tkachuk continues to play with reckless abandon this season, as his hitting numbers are up considerably from last year.
Tkachuk is not only the on-ice leader of the Panthers, but he is also the heart and soul player that teams covet desperately. Many thought the Panthers had given up too much to acquire the Scottsdale, Arizona native from the Calgary Flames, but a year and a half after the trade it looks like an absolute heist by general manager Bill Zito.
What are the Panthers thankful for?
Pro Scouting.
Over the last few years, not every trade the Panthers have made has worked out, but the bulk of them have been good, and several of them have been home runs.
As was mentioned earlier, the Tkachuk trade was an absolute thing of beauty for the Panthers, It was high profile and high risk, but some of their sneakier trades are almost as impressive.
Acquiring Sam Bennett from the Calgary Flames for Emil Heineman and a second-round pick was another well-crafted trade that ended up one-sided in favor of the Panthers. Another key move was the trade with the Buffalo Sabres to acquire Sam Reinhart who currently leads the team in scoring this season with 17 goals and 20 assists in 27 games. That trade could go either way though as Reinhart is a free agent at year’s end and Devon Levi has shown glimpses of being a star in the making, despite his struggles this season.
But one of Panthers’ best moves was a different trade with the Sabres. One in which Florida acquired Brandon Montour for a 2021 third-round pick. Montour has started slowing this season with just two assists in 11 games, but like Tkachuk, he is returning from a severe injury. Montour was a key catalyst for the Panthers last season as he put up career numbers with 16 goals and 57 assists in 80 games. To cap it all off the 29-year-old had eight goals and five assists in 21 games during Florida’s surprise run to the Stanley Cup finals this past spring. His acquisition remains some of the Panthers’ best work the last few years, and credit goes to the team’s pro scouting who continue to identify diamonds in the rough.
What would the Panthers be even more thankful for?
A few contract extensions.
The Panthers are headed into a summer of uncertainty as they do have a number off key free agents who could be difficult to get under contract long-term.
As mentioned earlier, Reinhart has been terrific this season. He is on pace for a career year and could eclipse 50 goals and 100 points for the first time in his career. The timing could not be better for the 28-year-old as he is just over six months away from hitting the open market. If he gets to market there is no telling how high the cap hit could be on a lucrative long-term deal, especially with the salary cap rising substantially for the first time since before the pandemic. The Panthers are the only team that can offer Reinhart an eighth year, but they do have other extensions to consider and may not be willing to go as high as they need to get a deal done.
Montour is another pending unrestricted free agent, and his negotiations are complicated by the wild variance in his play in the last few seasons. After having a career year last season, he has started slowing this year and may give the Panthers pause when it comes to negotiations. Florida might want to see more from Montour before locking him down long-term. However, he was invaluable to them last year, particularly during their playoff run, and if he can replicate that success this year, he may price himself out of Florida.
Lastly, Gustav Forsling is also just over six months away from being able to sign with any team in the league, and while he hasn’t matched the pace he set last year offensively, he is still a key driver of play and can play in all situations. Forsling remains one of the most underrated defensemen in the NHL, but that could change with his next contract. While he currently is playing under a deal that pays him just over $2.6MM annually, he should be able to double his cap hit on his next deal.
At 27 years old Forsling likely has a lot left to give and should be a priority for the Panthers. He blocks shots, kills penalties, can chip in offensively, and is terrific at even strength. The Panthers would be hard-pressed to replace the minutes he plays in free agency and will likely look to lock him up long-term.
What should be on the Panthers holiday wish list?
A depth defenseman.
It really goes to show you how good this Panthers team is that their big need is a depth defenseman. An argument could be made that they use another center, but with Kevin Stenlund providing a decent defensive presence as the fourth line center, we can table talk about the forwards and focus on the Panthers’ back-end.
Uvis Balinskis has filled in admirably on the Panthers third defensive paring as the 27-year-old rookie has played okay in heavily sheltered minutes for the team alongside Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Despite his decent play in a supporting role, the Panthers will likely need to improve their depth if they hope to make another deep run in the playoffs. Balinskis does have a physical element to his game but isn’t overly big and can be pushed off the puck. He also appears uncomfortable playing on his offside, something he will probably have to do to remain in the Panthers lineup long-term.
Florida would do well to grab a depth right-shot defenseman, who can fill in for Balinskis on occasion, or takeover from him should he begin to falter as the season goes on,
What Your Team Is Thankful For: Detroit Red Wings
As the holiday season approaches, PHR will be taking a look at what teams are thankful for in 2023-24. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Detroit Red Wings.
Who are the Red Wings thankful for?
Larkin had the opportunity to leave the Red Wings this past summer but opted to remain with the franchise signing a massive eight-year extension. Few people would’ve faulted the 27-year-old for bolting the only organization he’s ever known as his tenure in the Motor City hasn’t exactly been full of memorable moments. The Red Wings haven’t made the playoffs since Larkin’s rookie season back in 2015-16 and haven’t finished better than fifth in their division since that five-game ouster at the hands of the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Larkin arrived in Detroit at a time when it seemed possible that the Red Wings could avoid a long rebuild and retool on the fly as they had a pile of emerging young talent to play alongside Larkin. However, many of Detroit’s top young players at the time failed to live up to expectations leading the Red Wings into a full-on rebuild that is in its eighth year.
Larkin has done his part through some very lean years in Detroit as he has led the team in scoring in five of the past seven seasons. As well as being their on-ice leader he has also become a leader in the dressing room when he was named their captain in January of 2021. Larkin has been a point-a-game player in each of the past three seasons and has done so without a ton of offensive help from his teammates.
Detroit should be thankful for Larkin, and thankful that the Waterford, Michigan native grew up in the metro Detroit area, which was probably a very big factor when it came to his decision to sign a long-term extension.
What are the Red Wings thankful for?
Scouting.
An argument can be made that perhaps the Red Wings scouting isn’t what it once was, but even if it is a fraction of what it used to be, that’s still better than most of the NHL. The Red Wings have historically been able to hit big on late-round draft picks and much of that credit belongs to Håkan Andersson who is the Director of European Scouting for Detroit. Andersson is largely responsible for the Red Wings drafting Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk, Johan Franzen, Tomas Holmstrom, Valtteri Filppula, Tomas Tatar, Jiri Hudler, Niklas Kronwall, Jonathan Ericsson, and Gustav Nyquist. While that list is impressive, even more impressive is that Detroit only drafted one of those players in the first round (Kronwall).
Unfortunately for Detroit’s scouting department, the NHL is very much a what have you done for me lately league and their drafting hasn’t been what it once was. That’s not to say they haven’t hit home runs. Tyler Bertuzzi was a late second-round pick, as was Filip Hronek, while Andreas Athanasiou was selected late in the fourth round. Unfortunately for the Red Wings, none of those players worked out in Detroit and they all find themselves in other uniforms.
At this moment, the Red Wings do have some emerging young forwards who could make an impact over the next few years. It will be interesting to re-evaluate the Red Wings scouting in five years to look back and see how they assessed their talent.
What would the Red Wings be even more thankful for?
A Patrick Kane return to form.
If Patrick Kane can be anything close to what he was before double hip surgery, the Red Wings will be a real threat in the Eastern Conference. If he ends up like many of his peers who have undergone a hip resurfacing procedure, he might not be able to make much of an impact.
Those are obviously very different outcomes, and it could ultimately be the difference in the Red Wings season. Kane is just two years removed from posting 26 goals and 66 assists in 78 games and if he can bring some of that offense to Detroit’s lineup, along with the leadership that comes with winning three Stanley Cups, then he could push Detroit to be among the contenders in the East. But, if he can’t, Detroit may not be able to outscore some of the subpar goaltending they have received from Ville Husso.
It’s too early to tell how Kane will hold up under the grind of the regular season, but so far, he has looked strong with a goal in two games. Despite starting a huge percentage of his shifts in the defensive zone, Kane has been able to drive play, and get some good looks at both five-on-five and on the power play. As he gets into better game shape, he could become a difference-maker for the Red Wings and that would be something for Detroit fans to be even more thankful for.
What should be on the Red Wings holiday wish list?
A starting goaltender.
Ville Husso isn’t it for Detroit. The 28-year-old has started the majority of the Red Wings games this year and has not been good. In 14 games thus far, the native of Helsinki, Finland has gone 8-4-2 with a .886 save percentage and 3.65 goals against average. Those numbers will not do for a team that is desperate to get back into the playoffs and who has a good enough lineup to do so if they can get the goaltending.
What complicates matters is that backups James Reimer and Alex Lyon have outplayed Husso by a very wide margin. Reimer is 2-2-2 in six starts and has a .922 save percentage with a 2.18 goals-against average, while Lyon is 4-2-0 with a .931 save percentage and a goals-against average of 2.13.
The wings are faced with several choices when it comes to their goaltending. They can ride it out with Husso and hope he finds his game while having Lyon and Reimer as backup options in case he falters. Or they can try and move Husso and his $4.75MM cap hit and then try and find another starting goaltender to replace him. Another option might be to add some additional depth, but with Lyon and Reimer already in the system it would become tricky to carry four goaltenders as one would have to be exposed to waivers. Carrying three goaltenders is already unusual, and if Detroit was to target a depth option, they would probably have to move one from one of their netminders.
Something that could work in Detroit’s favor is that they are one of the only contending teams that have a sizeable amount of cap space, meaning they could potentially acquire a goaltender and keep Husso if they wanted to, or move on from Husso and retain some of his cap hit in a trade.
If Husso does continue to struggle Detroit’s starting goalie job will be available, and it could become something to keep an eye on as we get closer to the trade deadline.
What Your Team Is Thankful For: Edmonton Oilers
As the holiday season approaches, PHR will be taking a look at what teams are thankful for in 2023-24. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Edmonton Oilers.
Who are the Oilers thankful for?
The more things change, the more they stay the same, and that’s held true for the Oilers’ generational talent. McDavid is currently carrying 34 points through 22 games, tied with Cale Makar for eighth in the league in scoring. He’s reached that mark despite a slow start, scoring just four points in the first eight games of November. But things are clicking for the 26-year-old once more, as McDavid has scored an unbelievable 21 points in his last eight games. That’s an 82-game pace of 215.25 points – and while there’s a very slim chance that he ever breaks the 200-point ceiling, the fact that McDavid has held onto that scoring pace over more than a handful of games is incredible. He’s scored in every game over the eight-game stretch, recording multiple points in six of them, and is sticking to Wayne Gretzky‘s tactic of leaning into assists – with 16 of his recent 21 points coming in the form of helpers. The Oilers have faced a lot of adversity this season but McDavid has made it clear that he won’t let it get him down as he looks to top the 153 points he scored last year.
What are the Oilers thankful for?
A stretch of home games.
The Oilers have struggled to get things going on the road this season, with a dismal 4-8-0 record when playing in another team’s barn. That fact hasn’t gelled well with their early schedule, which had them on the road for 11 of their first 19 games. Their longest stretch of home games in November was a four-game stretch early in the month when the team was facing an injury to McDavid and swirling questions about then-head coach Jay Woodcroft. Both factors weighed heavily on Edmonton and they fell 1-3-0 before having to get back on the road.
The cycle seemed to be continuing as they lost their first three games of their most recent road trip – a four-game-long trip around the eastern-US. But with a 5-0 win over the Washington Capitals to cap it off, the Oilers found their momentum just in time for their recent stretch of four home games, and one away game at the neighboring Winnipeg Jets. Edmonton has been on fire now that they’re back at Rogers Place, currently on a six-game winning streak that’s seen them outscore their opponents 31-to-11. They’ve been getting everything they could want in their recent outings, scoring an average of roughly five goals each game and seeing their goaltenders post a collective .947 save percentage.
After a dismal start to the season, the Oilers are now truly looking like a team that can challenge the best in the West. They have four more games at home before they embark on a six-game road trip in late-December. New head coach Kris Knoblauch will hope a strong stretch at home will be enough of a boost to amend the Oilers’ current luck on the road.
What would the Oilers be even more thankful for?
Consistent Goaltending.
The story of Edmonton’s early season has been one of underwhelming goaltending. The team has iced three different goalies this season, with all three recording a save percentage below .900. Starting goalie Stuart Skinner has managed a .888 through 19 games, en route to a 10-7-1 record. This is despite the Oilers facing a league-average xGA/60 (expected goals-against per-60) of 2.54, tied with Winnipeg for the 12th-best mark in the league, per Evolving Hockey. And while the former Calder Trophy runner-up Skinner has improved as of late – recording a .911 save percentage and 9-2-0 record in his last 11 games – there’s still reason to be uncertain in Edmonton’s crease. The Oilers are 3-12-1 when they allow three-or-more goals this season, emphasizing that the team is only as good as the goaltending that they receive. If they want to be true Stanley Cup-contenders, they’ll need to make sure their netminders are just as efficient as their scorers.
What should be on the Oilers holiday wish list?
A lucky trade offer.
The Oilers are clearly not far off from being a very scary team. Their top scorers – McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – are mostly performing as expected; the blueline has seen added help through the continued breakout of Evan Bouchard and the addition of Mattias Ekholm; and it seems Skinner is bringing some reliability back into the crease. But there still seems to be something holding back Edmonton from reaching their full potential. The team has six members of their forward group with fewer than eight points through their first 24 games and their defense seems to strike in waves.
But Edmonton has recently made former eighth-overall pick Philip Broberg available for a trade, something that could prove lucrative as many teams around the league look for a spark on defense. While Broberg’s professional career in North America is off to a choppy start, there are still teams around the league with high hopes for the 22-year-old defenseman. It helps that Broberg is on a cost-controlled deal, recording an $863K cap hit this season and set to become a restricted free agent next year. The right trade could be enough to patch one of the Oilers’ holes, whether it’s bringing in another depth-forward, providing more competition on defense, or adding support between the pipes. The NHL is gearing up for an exciting Trade Deadline and the Oilers could emerge from it with the plenty of hope for the future.