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Seven Notable RFAs Still Remain Unsigned

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It’s September 5th, which means that NHL preseason hockey is now less than three weeks away. Teams have been dealing with the realities of a flat salary cap for two offseasons now, but for some teams, it’s crunch time as their young star (or stars) remain in need of a new contract for the 2021-22 season.

While it’s obviously preferable for teams to get these players signed so they can join the team right away, teams do technically have until December 1st to sign any RFAs for them to be eligible to suit up this season. However, waiting into the season to sign the RFAs will increase the cap hit for the first year of the deal, something the league saw with William Nylander’s contract in 2018-19.

For some teams, mainly the Vancouver Canucks, that could be an issue. They’re the team that faces the largest potential cap crunch with both Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes to sign. The team currently carries $10.7MM in cap space, but that number could increase to as much as $14.2MM with Micheal Ferland being placed on long-term injured reserve. Pettersson and Hughes both struggled at times this season, but it’s hard to take results from any Canuck into account too much due to the team’s large-scale COVID-19 outbreak. Pettersson was limited to just 26 games because of injury, scoring 21 points. Hughes netted 41 points in 56 games. However, it’s still a hard argument to make that these two aren’t elite talents. Because of this, it’s likely impossible for Vancouver to afford both on long-term deals. One of them will likely be receiving a two-to-four-year contract with a much lower cap hit, but the contracts need to be signed before the start of the season in order to avoid any inflation on the already tight cap hits.

Then there’s two teams who’ve had long, drawn-out negotiations with their respective stars this offseason – the Minnesota Wild and Ottawa Senators. Both Kirill Kaprizov and Brady Tkachuk remain without deals. There appears to be some amount of hope for one team, though. Multiple reports in recent days have suggested the Wild are making progress on a deal, especially considering the deadline has now passed for Kaprizov to sign back home in Russia. The same can’t be said for Ottawa, as Tkachuk has claimed he hasn’t received a legitimate offer from the team and is beginning to get frustrated with the situation (as reported here by TSN’s Shawn Simpson). Ottawa does still have a great amount of salary cap flexibility, though, and they can afford for contract negotiations to stretch into the season.

Staying in Canada, the Edmonton Oilers still have Kailer Yamamoto to lock down in order to fill out their top-six forward group. When Oscar Klefbom is placed on LTIR and Alex Stalock is presumably sent down to the minors, the team will still have just around $1.8MM in cap space. Yamamoto likely won’t be signing anything longer than a two-year deal due to the situation. And though they can create some additional flexibility by not operating with a full roster, Edmonton will still be very interested in avoiding a prorated cap hit as the salary cap situation will remain tight no matter what.

Then there’s the remaining duo of youngsters playing for American teams – Rasmus Dahlin and Robert Thomas. Dahlin’s negotiations will be interesting to watch, purely to see if the team will commit to him long-term or not. The Sabres likely want to pay him more as the team still hasn’t reached the salary cap floor, as they still need to add roughly $2.5MM in cap hits to be cap-compliant. Dahlin will receive much more than that on any deal he signs. The Blues are in a bit of a pickle with Thomas, as the team has just $1.5MM in cap space remaining to ink the promising young forward. Thomas had only 12 points in 33 games this year and spent time injured, but had 10 goals and 42 points the season prior. It’ll likely be a one-year or two-year deal for Thomas, who finds himself in a very similar situation to Yamamoto in Edmonton.

All seven of these players will be watched with a keen eye by many in the hockey community as each day passes before camps open across the league. As the league emerges from the quiet part of the offseason, these players will likely dominate headlines sooner rather than later.

All salary cap figures via CapFriendly.com.

Snapshots: Kotkaniemi, Hurricanes Cap, Quenneville

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It’s been an unusually busy weekend in the hockey world, with yesterday’s successful Jesperi Kotkaniemi offer sheet and Christian Dvorak trade dominating headlines. Both of those moves have some corresponding implications that reach into today’s news cycle, including Kotkaniemi’s future as a playing member of the Carolina Hurricanes. General manager Don Waddell stated in his press conference this morning that the team’s plan is to start Kotkaniemi at the left-wing position in Carolina. It won’t be anything completely new for the 21-year-old Finnish forward, who’s played wing sparingly at times during his tenure with the Montreal Canadiens, but was mostly used as a bottom-six center there. Given his still-tantalizing potential and $6.1MM price tag, it’s likely that Kotkaniemi could slot in the top six along with Vincent Trocheck, but it’s all speculation until training camp begins. What’s for certain is that Carolina aims to give Kotkaniemi more opportunity and a better supporting cast than he’s had previously, hoping to get the most out of Kotkaniemi for the gamble of a price.

Some more fallout from the Kotkaniemi offer sheet, as well as a note about a Seattle Kraken expansion draft selection:

  • With today’s news of Jake Gardiner’s back and hip surgery and pending long-term injured reserve placement, the Carolina Hurricanes now have some salary-cap maneuvering to do. PuckPedia notes that Carolina will be able to exceed the cap by $4.05MM, the average annual value of Gardiner’s contract. The team currently sits at $1.5MM over the cap after the Kotkaniemi deal became official. PuckPedia also surmises that Carolina won’t have to go through too much trouble in order to maximize their salary cap relief, only sending two players down to be as close to the Upper Limit as possible before placing Gardiner on LTIR. Martin Necas remains the only non-waiver-eligible player on the roster and considering his role on the team, it’s unlikely he’ll be involved in a paper transaction. Steven Lorentz and Brendan Smith seem likely candidates to be waived and sent down in order to make the team cap-compliant.
  • The ZSC Lions of the Swiss National League announced today that they’ve signed former NHL forward John Quenneville to a contract after signing him to a professional tryout last month. Quenneville is one of a few Seattle Kraken expansion draft selections to not remain with the team into the 2021-22 season. Their selection from the Chicago Blackhawks, Quenneville was a pending unrestricted free agent and wasn’t signed by the Kraken. A first-round pick of the New Jersey Devils in 2014, the now 25-year-old Quenneville never secured a full-time role in the NHL and will likely see much more opportunity overseas. Quenneville appeared in 42 NHL games between 2016 and 2020, scoring two goals and five points.

Tomas Hertl Uncertain About Future With Sharks

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Often the top impending free agents heading into a season are no longer available by the time that season comes to a close. With many of the biggest names in the 2022 UFA class being in their mid-to-late thirties and many others having already begun extension talks with their current teams, next year may be no different. However, the San Jose Sharks’ Tomas Hertl could be one of those rare wire-to-wire top impending free agents. Recent reports indicate that the skilled center is unsure about his relationship with the San Jose Sharks and whether he wants to remain with the team. The two sides are not expected to begin contract talks until later in the coming season and by then it could be too late.

As Alex Didion notes for NBC Sports, Hertl recently stated in an interview at home in the Czech Republic that he wonders if San Jose wants him and if he wants to stay. There is clearly a disconnect between the two sides, despite Hertl’s place as one of the team’s best players. Over the past six seasons, Hertl has scored at a pace of .32 goals per game and .7 points per game. While health hasn’t always been on his side, he makes up for it with immense impact when he is on the ice. In five of those six seasons, Hertl either scored 20+ goals or would have in a full season. In the past three years, he did the same with the 60-point benchmark. While his injury absences are not inconsequential, it is still clear that Hertl is an elite player – and yet the Sharks are seemingly not pushing him to re-sign.

The biggest question may be why Hertl would want to stay anyway. As noted, the 27-year-old could be one of the prime options on the open market. Not only is his scoring ability apparent but he excels at the center position, playing with size and grit and getting the job done at the face-off dot. Analytics also support Hertl’s status as perhaps one of the more underrated stars in the NHL. He has a chance to cash in and find a new team that is more likely to contend and where he can truly shine. Why would he pass that up? The grass is likely greener outside of San Jose, who Didion’s colleague Adam Gretz points out is still likely several years away from getting back to postseason contention. Yet, Gretz also notes that the Sharks’ salary cap situation is not ideal either, meaning Hertl is not likely to make any more by sticking with the rebuilding team versus testing the market for a better fit financial and competitively. As the cherry on top, Gretz writes that Hertl is also believed to be one of the Sharks who is upset about the presence of Evander Kane in the San Jose locker room. While Kane’s hockey future is still very much up in the air, if he does keep playing it will likely be for the Sharks, who made a long-term commitment – a commitment they seem hesitant to make to Hertl.

As of right now, Hertl merely seems uncertain about his future with the Sharks and wants to see how the season plays out. However, all signs point to a departure from San Jose at some point in time and a distinct possibility that Hertl could be one of if not the most sought after name on the 2022 free agent market.

New York Rangers To Hire Ryan Martin

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Aug 25: The Rangers have officially announced the hiring of Martin, naming him to the roles previously reported.

Aug 13: The New York Rangers have added to the front office, hiring Ryan Martin as assistant general manager according to Larry Brooks of the New York Post. Martin will also serve as general manager of the Hartford Wolf Pack, the role previously held by Chris Drury before he was promoted in the Rangers organization.

It’s a big change for Martin, who has worked in the Detroit Red Wings front office for more than 15 years, including more than a decade as the team’s assistant GM. He also served as the GM of the Grand Rapids Griffins since 2013, winning the Calder Cup in 2017. Martin is also part of the staff for the U.S. World Junior program, which resulted in a gold medal at this year’s tournament.

The Rangers front office group is finally starting to take shape under Drury, who also hired John Lilley away from the Toronto Maple Leafs earlier this month as director of player personnel and amateur scouting. The team underwent a drastic management dismissal earlier this year after some embarrassing losses, and has made it very clear that the team will undergo stylistic changes for the 2021-22 season. Players like Barclay Goodrow, Ryan Reaves, Patrik Nemeth, Jarred Tinordi and Sammy Blais have been brought in to give the team some significant size and physicality.

Martin’s history with contract negotiation and salary cap management will be key for the Rangers over the next few years, as they enter contract talks with some of their key players. Norris winner Adam Fox has just one year left on his entry-level deal, while top center Mika Zibanejad is scheduled for unrestricted free agency next summer. With those and many other contract talks coming up, cap concerns could become very pressing for the Rangers in short order.

More Moves Forthcoming For The Philadelphia Flyers

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The Philadelphia Flyers find themselves at the top of the news cycle today after signing defenseman Travis Sanheim to a new deal prior to arbitration. It’s an important deal for the team, as they’ve assured one of their best young players is under contract for the next two seasons.

But with his $4.675MM cap hit come some financial consequences for the Eastern Conference squad. The signing puts them roughly $650,000 over the salary cap Upper Limit of $81.5MM. While perfectly legal during the offseason, Philadelphia won’t be able to carry a full 23-man roster into the season as it stands. The good news is that the team and general manager Chuck Fletcher have two main options to become cap-compliant, but each of those carries some consequences of its own.

The easiest option would be to purely not carry the full 23-man roster with three healthy scratches. Philadelphia has three fringe players, all forwards, currently listed on the 23-man roster who aren’t waiver-eligible: Tanner Laczynski, Jackson Cates, and Morgan Frost. It’s easy enough to send one or two of these younger players down to the AHL’s Lehigh Valley Phantoms, creating a cap-compliant opening night roster for Philadelphia. But there’s a certain risk that comes with the convenience of the situation, most notably demonstrated last season by a similar salary cap dance performed by the Vegas Golden Knights. Since having a 22-man roster with just one of these players sent down still only leaves them with $200,000 to $300,000 in cap space, a barrage of short-term injuries could easily force Philadelphia to ice a shorthanded game roster of fewer than 18 skaters. However, if Fletcher feels as though it’s a risk he’s willing to take in order to maintain the strength of his current healthy roster, it’s still a very viable course of action for the Flyers.

The more complex and unlikely option is an additional trade. The Flyers already made one large cap-clearing transaction this summer, dealing Jakub Voracek to the Columbus Blue Jackets in exchange for Cam Atkinson. But as additional relief is needed after Sanheim’s contract, both James van Riemsdyk and/or Travis Konecny could find their way back onto the trade block. Konecny was rumored heavily to be on the move over the past few seasons after falling out of favor at times with head coach Alain Vigneault. His younger age and lower cap hit as compared to van Riemsdyk would likely make him the more attractive option in a trade for teams looking to deal. van Riemsdyk carries significant upside of his own, though, despite his age. He’s still an extremely competent scorer, potting 43 points in 56 games this season. His $7MM cap hit could be tough to swallow for some teams, though, unless it’s more of a true hockey trade like the Voracek deal.

What’s for certain is that Philadelphia will need to make a few changes before they’re ready to go for opening night. While the scale of these are unknown, Philadelphia will look to enter the 2021-22 season with a much-needed refresh to the team’s roster.

All salary cap figures come from CapFriendly.com.

Minnesota Wild Finally Have Salary Cap Certainty For 2021-22

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One of the offseason’s biggest stories has undoubtedly been the salary cap situation of the Minnesota Wild. General manager Bill Guerin was faced with an extremely tricky deck of cards this summer – the team’s three best forwards were all restricted free agents and needed new contracts. With a frozen salary cap and increasing market value, it was never going to be easy for the Wild to continue icing a contending team in 2021-22.

However, with Kevin Fiala inking a one-year $5.1MM contract today to stay in Minnesota, the team finally has some clarity in how they’ll be rolling their lineup in the near future. What’s for certain now is that the team will have enough financial flexibility to have Kirill Kaprizov on the roster, at least for next season. With Fiala signed and a full roster, the Wild have $13.1MM in cap space with only Kaprizov left to sign.

But, it seems with every passing day that Kaprizov’s eventual signing price will likely be astronomical, and on a short-term deal as well. The likely outcome here by most accounts is Kaprizov signing a deal equal to or shorter than four seasons, likely between $7-10MM. It’s certainly doable for 2021-22, but the main concerns have never been just about next year.

Moving forward, it’ll be even tougher for Minnesota to stay cap-compliant. The promise of a slightly increasing Upper Limit helps somewhat, but not by much. While 2022-23 sees the combined $9MM cap hits of Victor Rask and Alex Goligoski vanish, they’ll also need a new deal for Fiala, gritty winger Jordan Greenway, and promising netminder Kaapo Kahkonen. The total cap hit increase of those deals, plus an $8MM increase in cap penalties due to the Ryan Suter and Zach Parise buyouts, make a scenario in which all three players are retained nearly impossible, even with some team-friendly deals.

The deal Fiala signed is likely very similar to what he would have been awarded had the case gone to arbitration. It doesn’t exactly show long-term commitment to the relationship between player and team, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see another transaction involving Fiala within the next calendar year.

While cost certainty helps create a clearer picture for the upcoming 2021-22 season, the long-term landscape still remains treacherous for the up-and-coming squad.

All salary cap figures from CapFriendly.com

Snapshots: Kaprizov, Elias, Robert Morris

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While no one wants to see dynamic and entertaining talent Kirill Kaprizov leave the NHL after just one year, especially after waiting so long for his arrival, the ongoing negotiations between he, the Minnesota Wild, and allegedly the KHL’s CSKA Moscow has been an intriguing storyline to say the least. However, the recent report that CKSA has an eight-figure offer out to Kaprizov is almost certainly a farce. As first pointed out by Bally Sports’ Andy Strickland, the KHL salary cap is equivalent to about $12MM, making an eight-figure offer one that eats up at least 83% of the team’s payroll on just one player. Even if they did want to make that kind of unrealistic commitment to Kaprizov, the perennial contenders are already flush with talent, including recent NHLers Joakim Nordstrom, Lucas Wallmark, Mikhail Grigorenko, Nikita Nesterov, and several others. There is no possible way that CSKA can afford Kaprizov for anything more than Minnesota’s best offer, leading Strickland to call this “one of the worst bluffs in sports history.” So, rest easy Wild fans. Minnesota maintains all of the leverage in this negotiation and isn’t about to lose Kaprizov and certainly not to an imaginary KHL offer.

  • Following a strong performance at the recent Hlinka-Gretzky Cup, Sports Illustrated’s Steven Ellis reports that talented young Slovakian goalkeeper Rastislav Elias has decided to make the move to North America and will play in the USHL this season. Unlike the past few draft classes, which have featured elite goaltending prospects that were long considered first-round picks, the title for top goalie prospect in the 2022 NHL Draft is still up for grabs. Elias hopes that by joining the Green Bay Gamblers and testing himself in a new league, having only played in Slovakian juniors to this point, will earn him some consideration for that label. The spotlight will be on Elias in 2021-22, who is already considered one of the top prospects in net alongside Canadian Tyler Brennan and Russian Sergei Ivanov in particular. Not only will NHL teams be eying Elias, but NCAA programs will also be heavily scouting the talented prospect, who is still eligible to go the college route if he so chooses.
  • Robert Morris University made waves this spring – and not the good kind – when they shockingly terminated their men’s and women’s hockey programs. The decision spurned numerous outside efforts to raise money to bring the programs back before the coming season, but there had been no update as to whether those attempts had been successful. That official word came down today, as the Pittsburgh-area university announced that they will not be icing hockey teams in 2021-22. Robert Morris reports that they have raised $1.34MM in contributions and pledges, but would require $1.4MM in immediate contributions and another $1.4MM in future pledges in order to reinstate the programs. The school notes that it is “eyeing [a] comeback in 2022-23” if fundraising continues, but by then the players from both teams likely will have transferred and the program will be starting from scratch. It is a disappointing result and seeming lack of dedication and effort on the part of Robert Morris, especially as schools around the country are adding Division I hockey programs, not subtracting them.

Salary Cap Lower Limit Complicates Jack Eichel Trade

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The Buffalo Sabres have been expected to trade Jack Eichel for months. His neck injury this season caused a difference of opinion between his camp and the team, leading to a lack of trust, which only exasperated a tough situation. Eichel has been in Buffalo for six seasons but has still not suited up for a single playoff game. On the other side, the Sabres have been paying him $10MM per season for three years without any postseason revenue to show for it. A split seemed inevitable, but there are many complicating factors.

One of them that has been discussed at length is that $10MM cap hit and how it is difficult for other teams to fit under the cap ceiling. Eichel is a top player when healthy, but his injury situation makes it an extremely risky proposition for anyone interested in acquiring his services.

There’s another complication caused by his contract though, and this one has gotten far less attention. In fact, it’s basically the opposite problem of an acquiring team not being able to afford Eichel. The Sabres can’t really afford to take him off the books at this point.

Right now, there are two teams in the league that are actually well short of the salary cap’s lower limit of $60.2MM–the Ottawa Senators and, you guessed it, the Buffalo Sabres. According to CapFriendly, Buffalo currently sits at a projected cap hit for the 2021-22 season of just $52,897,763, more than $7.3MM under the lower limit. “But they have Casey Mittelstadt, Rasmus Dahlin and Henri Jokiharju to sign!” you might say, and that’s true, those three restricted free agents will likely take them well over the salary cap floor.

The problem is, that projection is including the $10MM owed to Eichel. If the team trades him, suddenly they’re more than $17.3MM under the lower limit, a number that will be a lot harder to make up with three restricted free agent deals.

Buffalo has already moved out some of their high-priced talent this offseason, trading away Rasmus Ristolainen and Sam Reinhart. They watched Linus Ullmark and Jake McCabe walk in free agency, replacing them with 40-year-old Craig Anderson for league minimum and Mark Pysyk at $900K. For whatever reason, they had the New Jersey Devils retain part of Will Butcher’s contract, making him cost even less for them.

Moving Eichel out of this financial puzzle right now for nothing but futures would mean several other moves would have to follow just to get the Sabres cap compliant for the start of the year. This isn’t really a situation that has ever played out in the NHL, but it’s one of their own making. Buffalo has been aggressively shedding salary all summer to restock the prospect and draft cupboards, but the side effect of those moves is that the last big chip is now an even more complicated piece to trade.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Pittsburgh Penguins Content With Tristan Jarry As Starter

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Heading into the off-season, the Pittsburgh Penguins seemed destined to bring in a new goaltender. GM Ron Hextall more than hinted at his desire to add an established veteran to the mix alongside young Tristan Jarry, whose play suffered this past season. Yet, the status quo remains in the Pittsburgh net with Jarry and injury-prone backup Casey DeSmith. 

The root of this unexpected lack of change at the goalie position lies in the salary cap. Even with the departures of Jared McCann and Brandon Tanev, the Penguins are still right up against the upper limit. To this point, high-priced trade chips Jason Zucker, Marcus Pettersson, and Mike Matheson have yet to move, which leaves the team with little wiggle room in the free agent market. With what small space they had, the team opted to replace Tanev and McCann with Brock McGinn and Danton Heinen rather than address the goaltender position.

If and when the team is able to clear some space, perhaps adding a goalie will return to the forefront of their off-season objectives. The free agent market has largely been left bare, but the team could target a trade option such as Dallas’ Ben Bishop or Anton Khudobin, while Joonas Korpisalo, Alexandar Georgiev, and Malcolm Subban are other options believed to be available.

However, the team appears to no longer feel that they absolutely must add a goaltender before next season. Speaking with NHL.com’s Wes Crosby, Hextall stated that he believes Jarry is “going to bounce back” to starter quality for the Penguins this season. The 26-year-old did post a .921 save percentage and 2.43 GAA just a year ago, but those numbers fell to .909 and 2.75 this season. Most jarring was Jarry’s poor performance in the playoffs, in which he looked totally outmatched. Yet, Hextall – a former goalie himself – is confident that Jarry can return to form even without competition from a veteran addition. It seems he trusts DeSmith, who should be recovered from off-season surgery in time for the new campaign, as the backup again as well. This newfound confidence could be a product of the lacking talent available elsewhere or perhaps even some optimism for highly-regarded college free agent addition Filip Lindberg. Whatever the reason, the front office has changed their tune and Penguins fans have to hope that it all works out for the team as their championship window begins to close.

Salary Cap Increases Expected To Be Minimal Through 2025-26

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The good news is, the salary cap could increase by $1MM for the 2022-23 season. The bad news is, significant movement of the upper limit is not expected until 2026-27. Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff reports that the league is projecting a $4.8B hockey-related revenue for the 2021-22 season, which will actually mean the escrow debt that the players owe will actually increase. Seravalli expects there to be a $1MM increase in each of the next four offseasons as the revenues bounce back and players are able to pay off the $1.1B in debt.

When revenues dropped significantly last year, it caused a huge discrepancy in the normal 50-50 split between player salaries and owner revenues. Suddenly, players were being paid much more than their allotted half, meaning the difference would have been held in escrow. In the CBA negotiations that took place last year, the players and owners agreed to a salary deferral and fixed escrow rates, in exchange for a (relatively) flat cap until those debts—the ones caused by player salaries far outreaching 50% of hockey-related revenue—were paid back. Seravalli reports that the balance owed is expected to reach $1.1B after final accounting of the 2020-21 season.

If there are just $1MM increases in each of the next four offseasons, teams will have to be extremely careful how they spend money. Seven teams are already over the cap ceiling for next year, and though long-term injured reserve can help some of them, there’s just not a lot of wiggle room to work with. It also may explain why three teams are currently under the lower limit, with money still to spend to get to the cap floor of $60.2MM. Thirteen teams currently have cap commitments of less than $70MM for the 2021-22 season, giving them room to operate moving forward (while keeping costs down in the meantime).

A $1MM increase may seem like a good thing after three years at the same $81.5MM, but the squeeze is going to be apparent quickly as we move through the next few seasons without any meaningful change.

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