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David Pastrnak & Leon Draisaitl: The Next Contract

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The 2016 restricted free agent market was one of the most talented – and most entertaining – in recent memory. As hockey moves more and more toward youthful skill and speed, the dynamics of team building have changed as well, as last summer marked the “death of the bridge deal“. A multitude of massive extensions for young players were handed out, including giant new deals for forwards like Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon, Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele, Calgary duo Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau, and Florida pair Jonathan Huberdeau and Vincent Trocheck. The 2017 RFA group is no slouch either; it features star scorers such as Minnesota’s Mikael Granlund, Vancouver’s Bo Horvat, Nashville’s Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson, the Tampa Bay trio of Jonathan Drouin, Tyler Johnson, and Ondrej Palat and more.

Yet, the two most intriguing restricted free agents are the youngest of the group: 20-year-old Boston Bruins right winger David Pastrnak and 21-year-old Edmonton Oilers center Leon Draisaitl. Last summer opened the door for the game-changing pair to skip right over an affordable short-term deal that would keep them restricted into a third contract for the “prime” of their career. Now, Pastrnak and Draisaitl have the newly-minted industry standard option of asking for a six- to eight-year deal, lasting well into their late 20’s, worth somewhere in the range of $5-7MM annually. So what exactly will the new contracts look like this summer?

Pastrnak’s agent, J.P. Barry, is on the record as saying that his client is looking for a long-term deal and they are viewing the contracts of Monahan, Scheifele, and Filip Forsberg as comparisons. Forsberg signed a six-year, $36MM extension last June, worth $6MM annually, while Monahan re-signed for $6.375 per year for seven seasons and Sheifele agreed to $6.125MM a year for the maximum eight seasons. The only problem for Pastrnak and his representation in making those comparisons is the consistency argument. Pastrnak has an impressive 64 points through 68 games so far this season, much like Monahan’s 63 point total last year. However, Monahan also put up 62 points the year before and 34 as a rookie. He was only slightly older than Pastrnak when he agreed to an extension, but had far greater production in his first two seasons when compared to Pastrnak’s back-to-back mid-20’s performances. Scheifele also had a similar season to Pastrnak’s last year with 61 points in 71 games, but he too outperformed the young Czech the prior two seasons – and was two years older – when inking his eight-year mega deal. Like Monahan, Forsberg had consecutive 60+-point seasons before earning his new deal.

The Monahan, Scheifele, and Forsberg comparison works far better for Draisaitl. Now in his third NHL season, but still just 21, Draisaitl leads all impending RFA’s with 70 points on the year, following up his breakout 51-point campaign in 2015-16. With back-to-back strong seasons, like the previously described trio, Draisaitl should be comfortably within the $6-6.5MM annual range for his upcoming contract. The Oilers will have to keep in mind the possible record-setting deal awaiting them in Connor McDavid next year, but will not hesitate to pay Draisaitl, who is already one the best #2 centers in the NHL. While a very different player, Draisaitl’s early career arc closely resembles that of Gaudreau, and “Johnny Hockey” signed on for six more years in Calgary at $6.75 per, so don’t be surprised if Draisaitl actually ends up exceeding the $6-6.5MM annual range in his new deal or agrees to seven or eight years as compensation for a lower yearly value.

So what of Pastrnak? No one doubts that he will continue producing at a high level, especially with Boston’s top offensive stars like Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, and David Backes signed long-term and in influx of promising talent on it’s way. However, with just one – albeit unbelievable – high-scoring season under his belt, Pastrnak may not be able to crack that $6MM per year mark. Some may point to MacKinnon, the youngest and arguably most talented RFA to re-sign last year, and say that Pastrnak should get the same seven-year contract worth $6.3MM annually. However, MacKinnon was a #1 overall pick and had established himself as a top-line center with a 63-point rookie season in 2013-14, far ahead of where Pastrnak was at that point, which cancels out some of his more recent struggles. Instead, a better comparison is likely Panthers scorers Trocheck and Huberdeau. Like Pastrnak, Trocheck and Huberdeau found only middling success in their first two NHL seasons. Trocheck had a big breakout last year, jumping to 53 points in 76 games, and was rewarded with a six-year deal worth $4.75MM per year. Huberdeau had his breakout in 2014-15 with 54 points and then backed it up 59 points last season, before inking a six-year extension worth $5.9MM annually. What Pastrnak has done this year clearly surpasses anything that the Florida duo have yet to put up and Trocheck and Huberdeau were also two years older than Pastrnak will be when they re-signed, but they set up a more accurate range for what the Bruins wunderkind should expect this summer. Taking likely cap inflation into consideration, Pastrnak is looking at a six-year extension worth $5-6MM per season. Given the Bruins recent issues with retaining young talent, it’s a fair assumption that they won’t play hardball with the young sniper, so expecting the upper side of that scale is perfectly reasonable.

The Case For T.J. Oshie As This Summer’s Top Free Agent

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Earlier this year, PHR put together our first draft of the 2017 unrestricted free agent class. Washington Capitals right winger T.J. Oshie finished a respectable fourth on that list, behind Joe Thornton, Alexander Radulov, and, of course, Oshie’s new teammate Kevin Shattenkirk. Those mid-season power rankings were just that, a list based on career performance and the first half of the season. Yet, free agancy often reflects “what have you done for me lately?” rather than a complete analysis of a player’s full body of work, and the second half of the season has been a windfall for Oshie. Is he now the top player on the market this summer?

After last night’s hat trick against the Tampa Bay Lightning, Oshie is now the Capitals leading goal-scorer. Yes, that’s right, Oshie leads the best team in the league in goals, not Alexander Ovechkin. The last time that any player led Washington in goal scoring at this point in the season and wasn’t Ovechkin: Robert Lang in 2003-04. Not only that, Oshie’s 49 points in 58 games makes him the most efficient scorer on the team behind Nicklas Backstrom. Oshie is sniping at a career rate in 2016-17, with a 24.2% shooting percentage, which explains his career-high in goals as well. He also has a career-best +26 rating right now, a function of the Capital’s success but also of the more careful, refined game he has shown this season.

So Oshie is having an excellent year; does that make him the top free agent? No one behind Oshie on our initial list has played significantly better, so it comes down to comparing him against Thornton, Radulov, and Shattenkirk. The first thing that should stick out between Oshie and Thornton is age. Oshie will be 30 years old at the start of the 2017-18 season, whereas Thornton will be 38. Radulov will be just 31, but has just returned to the NHL this season after a long hiatus in the KHL. Oshie and Thornton thus have him beat in terms of career consistency and dependability. If 2016-17 scoring is the main criteria, it’s a close race with Oshie at 49 points, Thornton at 48 points, and Radulov at 47 points, but Oshie has played in fewer games than the others. With an age advantage over Thornton and a consistency advantage over Radulov packaged with a scoring advantage over both, it’s fair to say that Oshie has moved into the top spot among impending free agent forwards. Making that call easier is the fact that both Thornton and Radulov are expected by many to re-sign with their current teams following the Expansion Draft in June and may not even hit the open market with Oshie on July 1st.

So that leaves Oshie vs. Shattenkirk. Especially if Washington wins their first ever Stanley Cup on the backs of these two players, both Oshie and Shattenkirk will be highly sought-after and handsomely paid on July 1st. However, can you make the case that Oshie has surpassed his new teammate in free agent value? Back in January, the PHR writers were in universal agreement that Shattenkirk was the top player available. However, when it came time for the St. Louis Blues to move him at the Trade Deadline, rumors began circulating that many teams saw Shattenkirk as a second-pair guy, were unwilling to part with top prospects and multiple high picks to acquire him, and were not planning on handing him a contract worth $7MM+ per year this summer. The Capitals ended up parting with a package that surprised many as being relatively cheap in return for the star defenseman. Shattenkirk is still the best blue liner on the market and will get his money somewhere, but no such word has come out about Oshie’s free agency prospects. It appears that teams are ready to give the skilled winger whatever he asks, as Oshie has proved time and time again that he is one of the most consistent scorers in the NHL, as well as a powerplay dyanamo and shootout specialist. The simple fact that scoring defense is always in higher demand than scoring forwards may dictate that Shattenkirk remains the top free agent this summer, but don’t be surprised to see Oshie get a similar deal to his teammate and go on to have greater success than Shattenkirk with his new team in the future.

Thoughts On The NHL Expansion Draft List Controversy

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Earlier this week the NHL GMs met in Boca Raton for a series of meetings meant to improve the game. One tentative resolution, as first reported by ESPN’s Pierre Lebrun, is that the NHL will not release the list of exposed players prior to—or even after—the NHL Expansion Draft this summer. This revelation created quite the ruckus amongst fans and media alike, as almost no one expected the NHL to completely deny access to the hotly-anticipated list.

Hotly-anticipated is no misnomer. CapFriendly’s mock expansion draft tool just surpassed 30,000 user-created drafts since its November’s inception. Fan blogs across the web delved into extensive analysis on who teams should protect and expose. Commentary on every transaction so far this year always had the obligatory “how does this effect the expansion draft” question attached to it. Needless to say, the protected list of NHL players will be the hottest commodity come June.

And yet the NHL GMs have tentatively decided to permanently withhold that list, making it impossible for everyone outside the NHL GM community to stage their own mock drafts and analyze GMs’ decisions. The GMs surely have their reasons, but fans and the media have theirs in support of publishing the protected list. The following outlines both sides in an effort to understand the rationale behind both desires.

For releasing the list

The two main arguments for releasing the list are simple: to facilitate mock drafts and to provide context and analysis of both the draft itself and moves leading up to the draft. And more importantly to the NHL, both arguments produce increased exposure. Fans and media clamour for this information, and the NHL should enjoy the attention windfall that follows.

Moreover, it rewards those who follow the NHL closely enough to care about who teams protect and who they expose. The NFL and NBA all have an extensive mock entry draft culture that allows fans almost unlimited imagination as to which players go where. With an event as unique as the expansion draft, the NHL should not deny fans the opportunity to construct their own Vegas Golden Knights using an official list of players.

Against releasing the list

The two main arguments against releasing the list center on the GMs and the players themselves. One, the GMs do not want their decisions scrutinized more than necessary. Two, NHL players may not want the public to know who isn’t worthy of protection, or relatedly, the GMs do not want their players to know who gets exposed.

Protecting themselves against scrutiny may be the low-hanging fruit argument, but it merits attention. The NHL continues to announce NHL contracts without crucial details like amount, conditions, and whether there is a no-trade or no-movement clause. This is despite the popularity of sites like CapGeek, Capfriendly, and General Fanager. The argument is that fans do not need to know these details to enjoy the game, and that scrutiny begets negativity, and—more telling—criticism directed at GMs.

The second argument may have more heft. Players may not want to know that certain players in the locker room were protected while others were exposed. In a skill-based game where ego runs rampant, knowing that a team finds you dispensable may alter the relationship between teams and players. Moreover, players may not want others to know if a team finds them dispensable. In an environment with almost no privacy, players may want to cling to whatever confidentiality they can.

In the end, the pressure from fans and media alike shoud push the NHL to change its mind and release the list. The benefits outweigh the positives, and the increased exposure should be cultivated rather than ignored.

Predicting The Next “Bartkowski Deal”

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The genius that was the Matt Bartkowski signing should not be understated. By now, the extension for the purpose of Expansion Draft exposure has become commonplace, but what GM Brad Treliving and the Calgary Flames did was unique. They went outside the organization to sign a player to a multi-year deal who fulfilled the criteria of having played in 40 games this season or 70 games over the past two years. Except Bartkowski hadn’t played a single NHL game this season; he had been on a minor league contract with the AHL’s Providence Bruins. What that means is Bartkowski had to have played in over 70 games last season alone, and indeed he had skated in 80 games with the Vancouver Canucks in 2015-16. In fact, Bartkowksi was the only defenseman on the planet who played in over 70 games last season yet was not signed to an NHL contract this season. Therein lies the genius that was the unassuming signing of Bartkowski. The Flames picked up the only player on the market who could automatically fill their need for an exposure-eligible defenseman.

With a reportedly quiet trade market this season, there are bound to be teams facing expansion protection problems after the March 1st Trade Deadline comes and goes, whether it’s on the blue line or up front. Will someone follow in Treliving’s footsteps and scoop up a player who played in 70 or so games last season but remains unsigned as of now? The short answer is probably not.

Looking at the short list of players who meet the games played criteria, it very well could be that Bartkowski stands alone as an unsigned player looking to continue playing hockey, even if that means signing a two-year, two-way contract and likely logging major AHL minutes. Especially on defense, a team like the Carolina Hurricanes is likely out of luck if they want to replicate the Bartkowksi maneuver. The only unsigned player who qualifies for exposure is Matt Carle, who played in 64 games with the Tampa Bay Lightning last year and six earlier this year with the Nashville Predators. However, Carle announced his retirement in November when he cleared waivers and was likely going to be moved to the AHL. Carle seems content with collecting buyout checks from the Lightning and almost certainly would have no interest is returning to hockey with a two-year, two-way deal. There are really no other defensemen that even have a reasonable chance of meeting the 40/70 criteria. Bartkowski was essentially it.

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Deadline Primer: St. Louis Blues

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With the trade deadline now just weeks away, we’re going to start taking a closer look at each team.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?

After earning a berth in the 2015-16 Western Conference Final, the St. Louis Blues were again expected to be among the top teams in the conference and to perhaps make it as far as the Stanley Cup Final. Unfortunately the Blues have underachieved on the season, ultimatley leading management to dismiss veteran bench boss Ken Hitchcock. More changes could be on the horizon as the team currently finds itself fighting for their playoff lives.

Record

27-22-5, 54 points, fourth in Central Division

Deadline Status

Buyer and perhaps seller

Draft Picks

2017: STL 1st, STL 2nd, STL 4th, BUF 5th, STL 6th, STL 7th

2018: STL 1st, STL 2nd, STL 3rd, CGY 3rd*, STL 4th, STL 5th, STL 6th, STL 7th

*Pick is conditional on whether Brian Elliot re-signs with Calgary

Trade Chips

It would be understandable if Blues GM Doug Armstrong doesn’t view this year’s edition of the team as a viable Stanley Cup contender and was therefore reluctant to part with either prospect or draft pick capital for rental players at the deadline. St. Louis boasts a shallow prospect pool after years of earning draft selections outside of the top-10. The team does possess their own first and second-round picks in each of the next two seasons and perhaps in the right deal they would be willing to include those assets but it would have to be a trade the brought back a young, controllable top-six forward.

Kevin Shattenkirk might represent both the team’s most valuable asset as well as the one most likely to be dealt. Stung by losing veterans David Backes and Troy Brouwer for nothing as free agents last summer, Armstrong might be motivated to cash in the puck-moving defenseman in order to avoid a similar fate in July. As a skilled, right-shot defenseman, Shattenkirk is a tremendously valuable commodity on the open market, especially if he agrees to an extension with an interested club prior to the deal being made, and could return multiple pieces to improve the team moving forward.

Team Needs

  1. A Starting Goaltender – The Blues took a risk in the offseason by splitting up the effective netminding duo of Brian Elliot and Jake Allen, moving the former to Calgary at the draft in exchange for picks. Allen was viewed as the goalie of the future but has struggled to stop the puck with any consistency this season. His backup, Carter Hutton, simply isn’t a starting-caliber backstop in this league. If the Blues decide to go for it this year, it would behoove them to look at the starting goalie market where one of Marc-Andre Fleury or Ben Bishop would easily solve their need.
  2. A Top-Line Center – Paul Stastny is a nice, #2 pivot but he’s miscast in St. Louis as their top option due to the absence of any other competent scoring line options. Patrik Berglund (20 points in 54 games) and Jori Lehtera (16 points in 49 games) simply haven’t gotten the job done. The team chose to let Backes go in free agency and it’s looking more and more like a mistake that they didn’t either bite the bullet and re-sign him or replace him in the offseason. If the Blues could find a top-line center under long-term control, they’d have to take a look at it.

 

Expansion Draft Issues At The Trade Deadline: Defense and Goaltending

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This trade season is one like never before. The addition of the Vegas Golden Knights in 2017-18 and the Expansion Draft that goes along with it add a whole other layer to trade-making this year. With each and every transaction, the expansion draft protection formula can change. Even in 2000, when the Minnesota Wild and Columbus Blue Jackets were welcomed into the league, the expansion rules were not a strict and general managers did not have to be as paranoid about their moves. This time around, everything is different. What does it all mean? For fans, there is a real possibility that this could be the quietest Trade Deadline in recent memory. Buyers interested in impending free agent rentals may not have to worry about the draft implications, but the sellers potentially taking back roster players with term certainly do. Trading is hard enough, especially in a season with very few teams significantly out of the playoff race, and expansion will only increase those barriers. Luckily, there are several teams that need to make moves prior to the deadline or they could risk being in very sticky situations when the Knights get ready to make their selections. With teams like the Minnesota Wild, Pittsburgh Penguins, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Anaheim Ducks, who have so much talented, veteran depth at multiple positions, there is really not much that they can do; they’re going to lose a good player. For others, a sensible contract extension can solve all of their problems. However, for these teams, making a trade before it’s too late may be exactly what they need:

Calgary Flames – Defensemen

As currently constituted, the Flames would be forced to expose a great defenseman in the Expansion Draft. Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie, and Dougie Hamilton are clearly the three blue liners that Calgary wants to protect from exposure. However, they are also the only three that meet the “40/70” mandate of having a player with term on their contact who has played 40 games this season or 70 games combined over the last two seasons. Each team is required to expose one defenseman that meets these qualifications, but the Flames don’t have one outside of their core three. Both Dennis Wideman and Deryk Engelland meet the game totals, but are unrestricted free agents. Jyrki Jokipakka is an unrestricted free agent. No other defenseman in the entire organization who has played more than two pro seasons is signed beyond 2017. The Flames only option right now, assuming they have no interest in bringing Wideman or Engelland back, is to extend Jokipakka for the purpose of making him available by the June 21st draft date. However, if they want to take their time negotiating a new deal with the centerpiece of their return for Kris Russell, or if they’re worried that he is more likely to be selected with a new deal than as a free agent, the Flames must look to strike a deal for a qualifying defenseman. They will need blue line help this off-season anyway, so look for Calgary to be major players in quality veteran defenseman with term, should any hit the market.

Carolina Hurricanes – Defensemen

Carolina is in a similar position to Calgary, but don’t even have a choice of three defensemen to choose from if they don’t make a change; the Hurricanes would have to expose (and would surely lose) All-Star Justin Faulk. That, of course, won’t happen, but the ’Canes must make a move to avoid it. Carolina’s highly-touted young defense is actually what creates this problem. Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, and Noah Hanifin are all amazingly still in their second pro seasons and exempt from selection. Ron Hainsey is an unrestricted free agent and a prime trade candidate. That leaves three others who could possibly fit the bill for GM Ron Francis. 23-year-old Ryan Murphy has a year left on his contract, but remains 24 games shy of reaching the 40/70 benchmark. Would the Hurricanes play Murphy, who has all but been cast aside in Carolina, for the remainder of the season just to expose him? The other option is to extend an impending free agent like Klas Dahlbeck, who otherwise qualifies, or Matt Tennyson, who needs just ten more games to reach the mark. Neither is likely to be selected by Vegas, but would at least cover the requirement for the ’Canes. The question then becomes whether the team is willing to extend either one when they are so loaded with young talent on the blue line that they would rather not have blocked by mediocre players. Acquiring a qualifying defenseman who presents an upgrade over the pair, but not a surefire expansion pick may make more sense.

Philadelphia Flyers – Goalies

As has been touched on before, teams with goalie qualification problems have been easy to spot this season. Goaltenders don’t have a games-played mandate for exposure, but must have term on their contracts. Going into this season, the Montreal Canadiens had no protection for Carey Price, but fixed that by giving backup Al Montoya an extension, and the Anaheim Ducks had plenty of goalies, but none that qualified other than John Gibson until they extended AHL keeper Dustin Tokarski. The Minnesota Wild decided to follow in the Ducks’ footsteps recently, protecting Devan Dubnyk by extending Alex Stalock rather than backup Darcy Kuemper. That leaves just one team, the Flyers, with goalie problems (what else is new). Their situation is unique though, as Philadelphia is not looking to protect a starter by re-signing or acquiring a backup. Instead, they need to protect prospect Anthony Stolarz. With Steve Mason and Michal Neuvirth set to become unrestricted free agents, Stolarz is the only keeper in the system who qualifies for exposure, and Vegas would surely jump on the promising young goaltender. However, neither Mason nor Neuvirth have played nearly well enough this season to warrant an extension of starter-level money, especially when both would be unlikely to be selected in the draft. The Flyers have few options though, as they don’t want to spend substantial trade capital on a new starter for the future, only to watch him be selected by the Knights. The Flyers are likely scouring the NHL for backup-caliber goalies with term on their contracts and on teams who have the flexibility to move them. It’s a narrow search, and if no deal can be made, Philadelphia will have little choice but to overpay to bring back one of their underwhelming NHL keepers.

Stay tuned next week for Part II: Forwards, featuring six more troubled teams

Pre-Season Projections: The Midway Point

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Back in September, Las Vegas odds-maker Bovada released their first projections for the 2016-17 season through over/unders on regular season point totals and Stanley Cup odds for each NHL team. When organized and combined, it painted a pretty clear picture of how Vegas saw the season and postseason playing out. So, how are they doing so far? As can be expected, it’s a pretty mixed bag. (Click pictures for larger images)

Bovada projections

These are the original projections that Bovada made prior to the start of the season, accompanied by the resulting playoff match-ups. Any casual fan can likely spot some huge failed predictions halfway through this season. For those not up to date, here are the current standings and the playoff match-ups if they started today:

Current Standings

And here are the projected final standings and playoff line-up, without taking strength of schedule – competition, home and away, spacing – into account:

Projected Final Standings

So, how did they do? If the playoffs started today, then Bovada would have correctly picked five Eastern Conference teams (Washington, Pittsburgh, Montreal, New York Rangers, Boston), including the correct seeds for the Capitals and Rangers, and six Western Conference teams (Minnesota, Chicago, San Jose, Anaheim, Nashville, St. Louis), including the correct seeds for the Sharks and Ducks. However, looking at the projected final standings as of now, the Bruins will drop out and the Los Angeles Kings will slip in, making it four in the East and seven in the West.

Which teams did they miss on? The most egregious error, and one that nearly everyone in hockey made, was counting out the Columbus Blue Jackets. The smart money back in September would have been on Columbus, as Bovada gave them the worst odds of winning the Stanley Cup at 66/1, tied with the Carolina Hurricanes, Vancouver Canucks, and Arizona Coyotes (whose Cup odds have actually gotten worse since then). If the Blue Jackets hit their projection of 116 points this season, they’ll have beaten their over/under by over 31 points in the standings, and will finish with the second-best record in the conference instead of eleventh. On the other side is the Colorado Avalanche. You know you’re having a bad season when Vegas doesn’t predict that you’ll make the playoffs, but you’re still 37 points off the set pace. The Avs are trending toward having one of the worst seasons in recent memory with just 50 points, and no one at Bovada saw that kind of struggle coming. Two other big misses, as it currently stands, have been the Tampa Bay Lightning and Dallas Stars. Bovada expected both to be the second-best team in their conference and gave them top-five odds to win the Stanley Cup. At this point in time, either club would be lucky to even qualify for the playoffs. Other teams that are way off the pace Vegas set for them are the Minnesota Wild, Ottawa Senators, and Toronto Maple Leafs, who have all overachieved this season with little off-season suspicion that they would do so.

What does Bovada have right? They deserve some credit for more or less nailing the Western Conference. Although they missed the meteoric rise of the Wild and the Edmonton Oilers’ long-awaited ascent to a playoff-caliber team, they are currently set to have seven correct playoff choices. Not only that, but the Sharks, Blackhawks, and Ducks are going to finish very close to a push on their original over/unders and the Coyotes look to be every bit the lottery team that they expected. Over in the East, the success is not as profound. Bovada did a pretty good job of pegging the Buffalo Sabres and New Jersey Devils as bottom-dwellers, but completely missed on their projections for the Blue Jackets, Leafs, Senators, and even the Carolina Hurricanes, who they believed would finish last in the East and instead was in playoff position just a couple weeks ago. The postseason picture is better, other than the Lightning, as Bovada got the easy picks and projections for the Capitals, Penguins, and Canadiens and have accurately set up the Bruins and Philadelphia Flyers as fringe teams fighting for a playoff spot.

So, the expert odds-makers at Bovada have some major misses so far, but as a whole are doing a decent job with their original predictions at this point in time. How did your favorite writers at Pro Hockey Rumors do? In short: not very well.

phr-staff-picks

The PHR Staff Picks are not a pretty picture at this point in time. The clean sweep of the Tampa Bay Lightning as Atlantic Division champs appears to be a widespread misread. All but two of us, credit to Brett Barrett and Brian La Rose, additionally had the Bolts in the Stanley Cup final. We’re all as confused as Steve Yzerman as to what it happening in Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, the Predators, Blues, and especially the Stars as Central Division contenders seems unlikely, as does the Kings as Pacific champs. However, making the playoffs is more than half of the battle in the NHL, as many lower seeds have gone on to have postseason success. With that, projections of the Predators, Blues, and Kings in the Western Conference final are not impossible. In reality though, there are only two reasonable Stanley Cup champion picks remaining on the board, and Brett Barrett deserves a round of applause for the only plausible Stanley Cup final at this point in time, with the Chicago Blackhawks defeating the Washington Capitals.

Will the current projections hold? Will ours and Bovada’s predictions look better or worse by year’s end? Tune in to the second half of the season to find out.

What To Watch For: AHL All-Star Game, CHL Top Prospects Game

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Once all the All-Star festivities in Los Angeles have died down on Sunday, hockey fans will be left facing the worst kind of Monday: one without NHL action. However, those with an eye on the future, interested in watching some future NHL All-Stars, will be happy to know that all is not lost. Both the American Hockey League (AHL) All-Star Game, featuring the best of the best of those on the cusp of being NHL regulars, and the Canadian Hockey League (CHL) Top Prospects game, showcasing the top 40 2017 draft-eligible prospects across the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League (QMJHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and Western Hockey League (WHL), are set to take place on Monday night. Here is a preview of what to watch for in these two talented contests:

The AHL All-Star Game, in the same mold as the NHL’s new model, includes a skills competition on Sunday night and a 3-0n-3 tournament between divisional squads on Monday night. Many current NHL stars got their start in the minor leagues and found All-Star-caliber success before taking advantage of their opportunities at the next level, and 2017 should be no different. So who are the future phenoms participating? Though he has yet to be demoted by the Pittsburgh Penguins, it is expected that Jake Guentzel will get to participate in the All-Star game and no player has had quite the impact that Guentzel has in 2016-17. Not only an All-Star, but also a first-year pro, Guentzel has made the transition from the NCAA to the AHL (and NHL) a seamless one. After scoring 46 points in 35 games for the University of Nebraska-Omaha a year ago, Guentzel has an almost identical 42 points in 33 games in the AHL this season. A player in a similar position is Guentzel’s Atlantic Division teammate Zane McIntyre of the Boston Bruins. McIntyre was promoted to the backup in Boston due to his amazing AHL success and has yet to be demoted, but is likely to get his chance to shine at the All-Star game. McIntyre is 10-0 in AHL play this season, with a league-best .951 save percentage and 1.41 goals against average in 12 appearances. The other Atlantic Division goalie, and Guenztel’s actual teammate in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton is Tristan Jarry, who has a .920 SV% and 2.22 GAA in 26 games. Yet another member of the stacked Atlantic team is the Philadelphia Flyers’ Jordan Weal, who has 42 points in 38 games. Outside of the Atlantic, St. Louis Blues prospect Kenny Agostino leads the AHL with 40 assists and 57 points for the Chicago Wolves. The 24-year-old is working hard for another shot at the NHL and will get the chance to further show what he can do at the All-Star game for the Central squad. Danny O’Regan of the San Jose Barracuda, who has gotten a chance to play in a few games this season for the team down the hall, trails only Guentzel in rookie scoring with 36 points in 32 games, while recent Arizona Coyotes call-up Christian Fischer sits in third with 32 points in 31 games and will join him on the Pacific Division team. Finally, keep an eye on defenseman Matt Taormina of the Syracuse Crunch, a Tampa Bay Lightning prospect who leads all AHL blue liners in points and will be dangerous for the North Division unit. The AHL All-Star game brings together the best players who are just an injury or slump away from making a difference in the NHL and it promises to provide a lot of skill and exciting action.

For those looking even further into the future, especially fans of teams with strong lottery chances in this year’s NHL Entry Draft, the CHL Top Prospects Game is for you. Featuring the best players in the CHL, the conglomerate of the three league’s that provide the majority of NHL talent, the All-Star game of sorts guarantees to provide an insight into at least 20 upcoming first-round picks. The game features Team Don Cherry and Team Bobby Orr, comprised of randomly selected players within NHL Central Scouting’s top 40 prospects. Captaining Team Cherry, and getting his first chance at real spotlight after missing much of the early season, is presumptive #1 overall pick Nolan Patrick. The big center has 17 points in 11 games for the Brandon Wheat Kings, but his limited action hasn’t stopped many from naming him the best available player. He’ll be joined by Owen Tippett of the OHL’s Mississigua Steelheads, the top-scoring draft-eligible player in the OHL, historically the best of the three leagues. Another OHL star and suspected top-ten pick, Gabriel Vilardi of the Windsor Spitfires, will skate with team, as will Maxime Comtois of the QMJHL’s Victoriaville Tigres, ranked No. 15 by Central Scouting. Rounding out the squad is defenseman Callan Foote, son of former NHLer Adam Foote and one of the top defenseman available in 2017. Team Bobby Orr will be headed up by Swiss star Nico Hischier, who excelled at the World Juniors and has kept it going with the QMJHL’s Halifax Mooseheads to the tune of 67 points in 39 games. Hischier’s alternate captains will be center Michael Rasmussen of the WHL’s Tri-City Americans, who has flown up the rankings to No. 6 overall, and another top blue line prospect, big Nicholas Hague, also of the OHL’s Steelheads. Other WHL superstars Cody Glass of the Portland Winterhawks and Nikita Popugaev of the Moose Jaw Warriors round out a deep forward group, while the OHL Spitfires’ goalie Michael DiPietro in net presents another potential first-rounder. There will be no shortage of action in this contest, the best option to see top draft prospects prior to their selection in June.

Goalie Extensions And The Expansion Draft

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In-season extensions in the NHL are not all that common. In-season extensions of pedestrian back-up goalies are even more rare. So the recent re-signings of Al Montoya by the Montreal Canadiens and Dustin Tokarski by the Anaheim Ducks likely stuck out to many as being strange, especially when they occurred within days of each other. While the Habs may talk about their desire for a “quality backup” to Carey Price and the Ducks say they need depth in net behind John Gibson with Jonathan Bernier headed to free agency, the teams and players know what the reality of these extensions are and fans should too. Montoya and Tokarski earned extensions not because of their play, but simply because of their mere existence as goalies on their respective teams. They won’t be the last either, as the impending NHL Expansion Draft will force a few other teams to make a move in net before it’s too late.

When the NHL laid out rules for this June’s Expansion Draft, they required that each team leave at least one eligible goalie exposed. For the majority of teams, this wasn’t a difficult criteria to meet. They could protect their starter as long as they had any other goalie with two years of pro experience and term on their contract. For a select few though, it remained a problem that needed to be solved in-season. Montreal and Anaheim were two such teams. Heading into 2016-17, the Candiens has a goalie stable of Price, Montoya, who they signed to a one-year deal this summer, and impending unrestricted free agent Mike Condon. Without any extension or acquisition, Montreal would have been forced to expose the best goalie in the world as their other two keepers held no further term on their contracts. After Condon failed to clear waivers earlier this season, it left the Habs with just two options: extend the veteran Montoya or trade for a third goaltender with term. Since many other teams are depending on their under-contract backups for expansion protection, it was a much easier task to extend Montoya, and given his early-season success, it became an even more obvious decision. While the journeyman goalie is happy to have a “permanent” home into his mid-30’s and the best deal of his career, the true intention of the Canadiens is to offer him up to the Vegas Golden Knights instead of their MVP, Price. Meanwhile in Anaheim, the league’s deepest goalie group also would not be able to protect their starter. The Ducks have five good-to-decent goalies signed, but the best of the bunch, Gibson, was the only one signed beyond 2017. The 23-year-old is coming off the best season of his young career and looking good again in 2016-17. There was no way that they could leave him exposed, but NHL backup Bernier was headed to unrestricted free agency, as were AHLers Tokarski and Matt Hackett and former college standout Kevin Boyle was ineligible for selection. With trading for yet another goalie not much of an option, Anaheim was left with three choices for extension. Bernier would be the most expensive to re-sign, and has also had a disappointing season, so it came down to a choice between San Diego Gulls’ keepers. Neither has impressed this season, but the Ducks chose to keep the more seasoned Tokarski around as depth. Tokarski stands almost no chance of being selected by Las Vegas, but will serve to protect Gibson and will stay employed in pro hockey a while longer.

Two more teams have similar decisions to make in 2017. As soon as the Expansion Draft rules came down, the Philadelphia Flyers knew that they were in somewhat of a pickle. Both Steve Mason and Michal Neuvirth were impending free agents and only the then-unproven Anthony Stolarz was an eligible goalie to be exposed. The Flyers’ situation has become only more difficult as both Mason and Neuvirth have struggled this season, while Stolarz made his NHL debut and looked good in a short stint as Mason’s backup. A young, promising goalie would almost surely be picked up by the Knights, so Stolarz now needs to be protected. However, are Mason or Neuvirth worthy of an extension? Maybe not, but the Flyers may look to simply use one or the other to bridge the gap to their talented goalie prospects. Mason may even be good enough that he is looked at by Las Vegas, but only time will tell. Expect the Flyers to extend Mason, or possibly Neuvirth, or else make a trade prior to the NHL Trade Deadline. The Minnesota Wild are also in this predicament, but their situation seems more cut-and-dry. Devan Dubnyk is the only goaltender on the roster who is eligible for exposure, but he has been a revelations since arriving in Minnesota, transforming into one of the best goalies in the NHL. The Wild won’t leave him exposed, but have the option of simply handing out an affordable extension to backup Darcy Kuemper or AHL starter Alex Stalock. Kuemper has seen a bit of a drop-off in 2016-17, but has been solid during his career in Minnesota. It seems likely that the Wild reward him with an extension, even if it carries a risk of him being selected in the Expansion Draft.

Should either team instead opt to make a trade, either just for the purposes of expansion or for added depth in the postseason, there are a few teams who could be sellers. The Columbus Blue Jackets could look to move one of their talented young goalies rather than risk losing them for nothing in the draft, and could afford to do so with all three of Joonas Korpisalo, Anton Forsberg, and Oscar Dansk being eligible for selection. The New York Islanders have moved on from Jaroslav Halak and could move him without repercussions. Similar acquisitions on the more expensive side could be Dallas’ Antti Niemi or Kari Lehtonen. The St. Louis Blues may be looking to add another high-end goalie to share the net with Jake Allen, in which case Carter Hutton could also become available. However, trading will be more difficult and more expensive for Philadelphia and Minnesota, especially if they end up competing with each other or with teams in need of a goalie for non-expansion reasons. The simple solution to the problems posed by the upcoming NHL Expansion Draft are more easily solved by extension, as Montreal and Anaheim have shown, so expect to hear about Mason, Kuemper, Neuvirth, or Stalock in the not too distant future.

PHR Originals: 11/20/16 – 11/26/16

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While we already looked at the five key hockey stories of the week, here’s some of the original material produced by Pro Hockey Rumors from last week:

  • Glen Miller took a look at the 2016 UFA all bargain team, a list that included the likes of Eric Staal, Jonathan Marchessault, Brian Campbell, and Chad Johnson. 
  • Brian La Rose investigated some defenseman who could garner attention in the trade market, which of course, included Kevin Shattenkirk.
  • Gavin Lee compiled a list of goaltenders who would be great additions to the Vegas Golden Knights roster should they be available during the expansion draft.
  • Zach Leach conducted a deep dive into the post-Brent Burns free agent market heading into the 2017 offseason.
  • Finally, I was able to interview the Athletic’s Scott Powers who gave us his thoughts on Chicago’s play with a quarter of the season in the books.

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