PHR Mailbag: Tavares, Kings, Coaching Hot Seats, Letang

Over the last few days, we’ve taken your mailbag questions on Twitter using the hashtag #PHRMailbag and on the site via the comments feature. Here are the inquiries for this edition of the mailbag:

mcase7187: Could the Bruins put a package together of Pastrnak, Carlo and few others for Tavares?

Short of John Tavares calling a press conference and announcing that there’s no way he’s re-signing with the Islanders, he’s not going to be moved at this time.  (Even if that did happen, I could still see them waiting in the hopes that he changes his mind.)

While I wouldn’t go as far as saying Boston wouldn’t have much of a need for Tavares, they’d need him a lot less than other teams.  They have Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, and David Backes (a natural center) all signed for at least the next four seasons at a little over $20MM combined.  They’re all older players but it would be a challenge on the cap to add an even bigger contract to that group without moving one of them in a deal for Tavares or some other trade.

As for the offer itself, that’s pretty good value.  David Pastrnak has emerged as a quality top line winger while Brandon Carlo has a long future ahead of him on the back end.  Having those players as part of a trade for Tavares would certainly yield a quality return for the Islanders.  I just don’t think Boston would be one of the many teams that would be highly interested in his services if Tavares were to ever be made available, at least to the extent of making the top offer to get him.

@dodgerskingsfan: Who do you think will make the Kings roster?

Right now, Los Angeles is tied for the most players attending camp on tryouts with Florida. Forwards Brandon Prust and Andrei Loktionov are there while Chris Lee will get a look on the back end.

I have a hard time envisioning Prust or Loktionov making the team.  Prust struggled to keep up a couple of years ago and isn’t exactly coming off of a great performance in the German League.  Maybe they ask to keep him around as a 13th forward but that’s about it.  Loktionov didn’t fare well in his last NHL stint either and hasn’t lit it up in the KHL since then.  I think they’d rather give players like Adrian Kempe and Jonny Brodzinski longer looks as things stand although I wouldn’t be shocked if they add a more prominent forward to their list of invitees in the next couple of weeks.

As for Lee, I think he has a good chance to make it.  He’ll be battling the likes of Christian Folin, Kevin Gravel, and Paul Ladue for the last couple of spots on the roster and none of those players have really established themselves yet as full-time NHL players.  Gravel and Ladue are waiver exempt so if Lee even plays at a comparable level in training camp, they could sign him and opt to have one of their youngsters start in the minors as depth.  Not only would it be a great story (a player finally making it to the NHL at 37) but Lee could give them an offensive boost that the others probably aren’t able to provide.  Unless they bring someone else in over the next month, I wouldn’t be surprised if Lee breaks camp with the Kings.

acarneglia: Which Eastern Conference coach would be most likely to be fired for failing to make the playoffs or not making a deep run?

Barry Trotz in Washington immediately springs to mind here.  The Capitals have underachieved in the postseason under his watch and although they’ve kept the core intact, the Metropolitan Division is still going to be a gauntlet to get through.  It’s also worth noting that he’s entering the final year of his contract this season and it certainly doesn’t sound like any extension is on the horizon.  Back in June, GM Brian MacLellan told reporters, including Matthew Paras of The Washington Times, that extension talks won’t occur until there is evidence of improvement.  Considering they’ve won the last two Presidents’ Trophies, the improvement he’s seeking is in the playoffs so if they don’t go far, I could see Trotz being let go (and getting scooped up pretty quickly after).

On the other side (missing the playoffs), Bill Peters in Carolina has failed to lead them to the postseason for three straight years so if that happens again, a change could be made.  That said, that division is going to be tough for them to crack the top three so a Wild Card berth is probably the best they can do realistically.  I could also see Jeff Blashill in Detroit at least being on the hot seat if they miss out; while on the outside it looks like they’re in need of some sort of rebuild (or at least a retooling), the fact that they haven’t done so suggests that they think they can get back into the playoffs this season.  If they miss, they’ll have failed to win a playoff round in three years with Blashill at the helm which might be enough to change things up there.

@EcFoss1214: If Kris Letang can’t stay healthy this season do the Pens finally try to find a deal for him?

This one is a bit of a double-edged sword.  While it could certainly make them more open to moving Letang, it would also make him that much less desirable to other teams considering his lengthy injury past (which includes a neck injury, a heart ailment, a groin issue, plus multiple other upper and lower body injuries over just the past three seasons).

There’s no denying that when Letang is healthy, he’s among the elite offensive defensemen in the NHL.  But if he misses a bunch of time due to injuries again in 2017-18, it will become fair to question whether he’s damaged goods at that point.  Considering he’ll still have four years with a $7.25MM cap hit left after this season, other teams won’t be offering up much value to take on that much risk even with the upside (his production when healthy) being as high as it is.  In all honesty, another season with injury issues probably solidifies his spot with Pittsburgh more than it would make him a more likely trade candidate.

AshevilleCanesFan: When calculating power play and penalty stats, are all penalties considered, or only when they are the full 2 minutes? For example, if team A gets a power play, but 20 seconds later gets called for a penalty, would they be 0 for 1 on the power play if they failed to score in those first 20 seconds of power play time? And would the 20 seconds that team B would have (after killing the initial penalty) count toward the stats?

Anything that actually results in a man advantage, whether it’s for two minutes or two seconds, counts towards calculated power play and penalty kill percentages which isn’t exactly the most accurate way to assess their real success rate.  So yes, in your scenario, both teams would be 0-for-1 on the power play despite not getting much real time to work with.

A few years ago, the odd broadcast would show a different power play stat that was more of a ratio, one goal for every x amount of time spent with the man advantage but that hasn’t picked up steam with some of the newer statistics.  I wouldn’t mind seeing that change as while the percentages may be easier to interpret, the ratio is a more accurate way of seeing what the actual success rate of a team is.  It’s also something that could be adapted to more properly assess the true numbers of a penalty kill as well.  There’s a big push out there for more accurate metrics and this is one that certainly hasn’t received a lot of attention over the years.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.