Free Agent Profile: Travis Hamonic
It wasn’t that long ago that Travis Hamonic was viewed as a core defenseman. While things have changed a bit since then (especially with mobility and offensive skills becoming more important from the back end), he’s still a capable shutdown defender. That’s why he was ranked as the 13th-best UFA in this class, sixth among blueliners. The five in front of him signed relatively quickly but as we approach the first full month of this offseason, Hamonic remains unsigned.
It’s not as if teams aren’t on the lookout for a right-shot defender that can play more than 20 minutes a night either. That’s something that just about every team in the league can use.
So why is Hamonic still unsigned? He didn’t help his cause during the regular season when he had just a dozen points in 50 games. Again, the 30-year-old is more of a stay-at-home player but that output is still pretty low for someone who played over 21 minutes a night. The fact that he opted out of the NHL’s Return to Play for family reasons also lingers, not in the sense that prospective suitors are holding that against him but that it may be affecting his willingness to commit somewhere at this time.
But while he’s never going to light up the scoresheet, Hamonic can still play solid defense, kill penalties, and block shots. That’s still a role that should be in considerable demand around the league but with the UFA market slowing to a crawl at the moment, it appears he may be waiting a little while yet before signing somewhere.
Potential Suitors
There are multiple situations where Hamonic could be a fit for teams. Quite a few will be hoping to add an impact defender over the next couple of months and he would fit the bill. If he wants to take a shot at a Stanley Cup, there are contending teams that would find a spot for him at the right price tag. And if he wants to take a one-year deal at the most money possible, as arguably the best defenseman still available, that type of contract should eventually become available as well.
In the Eastern Conference, the Flyers really haven’t completely filled the vacancy created by Matt Niskanen’s sudden retirement. They brought back Justin Braun but he’s better served in more of a depth role and while they also brought in Erik Gustafsson, he’s nowhere near as good of a defensive player as Niskanen was. Hamonic could step into that void. Detroit could certainly use him as someone on their second pair behind Filip Hronek which would shift Troy Stecher into a third-pairing role which may be his best spot and cap space won’t be an issue for them. Cap room also isn’t an issue for the Devils who could use a stabilizing defensive presence to help counter some of their more offensively-aggressive blueliners.
Out West, Hamonic’s hometown team in Winnipeg certainly should be a suitor. While they were able to retain deadline acquisition Dylan DeMelo, they still have a defense corps that’s in need of some improvement. With the announcement that Bryan Little has been told not to play this season, the Jets will have some LTIR space at their disposal which could be used to bring the blueliner in. The Kings have plenty of cap space and could certainly stand to improve their back end, even with its relative strength being on the right side. On a short-term deal, in particular, that might be a fit. Dallas has a question mark with regards to the health of Stephen Johns; if he is expected to be LTIR-bound once again, Hamonic would represent a potential short-term replacement and upgrade if the Stars opt to dip into that. (With their potential bonuses, it’s not a guarantee that they would.)
Of course, there are quite a few other teams where Hamonic would be a key player but would need to free up cap room in order to do so. Given how difficult that is proving to be this offseason, it’s difficult to classify any of them as possible suitors at this time.
Projected Contract
When our initial projections came out, we had Hamonic receiving a three-year, $12.5MM deal. That AAV wasn’t much higher than the deal he just finished while being lower than the salary he received in each of the last four seasons. Even in a deflated market, that price tag seemed doable.
That doesn’t appear to be the case now as while a few teams still have money they’re willing to spend, they can afford to look for bargains. Hamonic’s case is bolstered in that he is a top player at his position left on the open market which should help him a bit but a pay cut appears to definitely be on the horizon. If Hamonic takes a one-year deal, a $3.5MM salary may be his ceiling with the price tag dipping if he signs for longer. He should still wind up with a decent contract but he will eventually be added to the ever-growing list of players that will wind up with less than they expected.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Free Agent Profile: Sami Vatanen
Much like fellow countryman and unsigned free agents Mikael Granlund, Sami Vatanen is getting next to no attention on the open market so far this off-season. The 29-year-old defenseman, ranked No. 14 overall in PHR’s Top 50 UFA’s, is an established two-way defenseman with nearly 200 points in his eight-year NHL career, but seemingly can’t find a suitable offer in the stagnant, flat cap market.
Unfortunately for Vatanen, recency bias looms large in the free agent market. Teams are more willing to offer significant contracts to players who have impressed in their most recent outings rather than looking at their overall career. This has sunk Granlund so far and the same can be said for Vatanen on multiple fronts. First, Vatanen’s time with the Carolina Hurricanes was utterly forgettable. Traded at the deadline despite being injured, Vatanen did not see any regular season action with Carolina due to the suspension of the season. He was healthy enough to play once the postseason resumed, but played a limited role of just over 18 minutes per night in seven games (missing the final playoff game due to undisclosed reasons). Second, his past two seasons overall have not been stellar. Following four straight seasons of 67+ games played with the Anaheim Ducks, Vatanen’s health diminished over the past two years with the New Jersey Devils. He played in just 97 games total across the two campaigns and while his per-game stats both offensively and defensively held steady with his career average, his totals suffered.
Of course, the full picture of Vatanen’s career clearly displays why he ranked so high among PHR’s top free agents. He may be a couple of years removed from a relatively full season, but a healthy Vatanen in Anaheim was a perennial 30+ point player who also logged 100+ blocks and nearly 100 hits each year. Vatanen’s plus/minus was also superior before joining the struggling Devils. Even as part of what used to be a loaded Ducks defense corps, Vatanen earned his minutes and performed at a high level.
At full strength and given the opportunity, Vatanen can be a difference-maker for any team. A player who has logged 21 minutes or more per game in each of his six full NHL seasons , Vatanen knows how to carry the load of major minutes and special teams roles. He is also versatile, comfortable playing on his natural right side or on his off side. Over 82 games, Vatanen has 40-point upside and can be a disruptive force defensively as well. He has his demons as well; Vatanen is undersized, turnover prone, and can be a liability positionally in his own end. However, the total package is one of a bona fide top-four defenseman. Yet, at this point in the off-season he may not be paid as such.
Potential Suitors
Cap space aside, there are few teams in the NHL who couldn’t use a defenseman that can play both sides and contribute at both ends. Vatanen should cast a wide net of suitors, which makes the silence surrounding his name on the rumor mill all the more strange.
Taking into account the teams with ample salary cap space and need, there are a number of rebuilding clubs who could very likely be eyeing Vatanen. The Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings have shown no hesitation to add free agents this off-season and could use a player like Vatanen, while the Los Angeles Kings have been very quiet but could greatly benefit from adding a player of Vatanen’s caliber to their young, inexperienced blue line. The Kings have a number of right-shot defenders, but Vatanen could still be very useful on the left side.
Of course, the problem with any of these teams is that Vatanen just escaped a rebuild in New Jersey and may want to look for a more competitive landing spot. While 2019-20 was a major disappointment for the San Jose Sharks, the team has the pieces to return to relevance this season. However, they could really use one more established veteran on the back end and Vatanen would fit the bill. There is a gap on the right side as well behind Erik Karlsson and Brent Burns, but Vatanen might be the most dangerous playing on his off side with either of those stars.
Two other teams in need of defense but who might not be an obvious fit due to shot side are the New York Rangers and Boston Bruins. Both clubs are set on the right side; Boston has Charlie McAvoy, Brandon Carlo, and a now-healthy Kevan Miller as well as NHL prospect depth and the Rangers have Jacob Trouba, Anthony DeAngelo, and Adam Fox. However, both teams have somewhat failed to address holes on the left side this off-season. Even on his off side, Vatanen would be a major upgrade to Brendan Smith and depth additions Jack Johnson and Anthony Bitetto in New York and to Matt Grzelcyk and John Moore in Boston. Both teams have considerable prospect depth on the left side, but as Stanley Cup contenders may not want to miss a chance at a player like Vatanen on a bargain deal.
Projected Contract
PHR originally expected Vatanen to sign a deal in the neighborhood of four years and $19.5MM. At this point, if Vatanen was going to land a long-term deal it would have happened by now. It seems teams want to make sure that he can stay healthy and play at his best for a full season before thinking about multiple years. Vatanen may not be restricted to just a one-year deal, as the impending Expansion Draft and its exposure requirements may make a two-year offer attractive to some, but anything beyond a two-year term seems unlikely.
As for the money, the posited $4.875MM AAV seems highly unlikely. That valuation was based on a long-term deal. Whether one year or two, Vatanen is now unfortunately facing a “show me” contract. With so many possible landing spots at or close to the salary cap ceiling, there isn’t much money to go around. If he wants to end up with a competitive club, Vatanen will be looking at a $3MM AAV or lower. If he chases the money, it still seems like the market is pointing toward a $3.5MM cap hit at best.
While Vatanen is a more well-rounded defenseman than Erik Gustafsson, the one-year, $3MM deal he signed with the Philadelphia Flyers feels like a decent expectation. If Vatanen lands a second year, perhaps he gets a total of $7MM. Either way, Vatanen is being paid for his floor when, if healthy, his ceiling is much higher. If whoever eventually signs Vatanen is lucky enough to get a healthy season (or two) out of him, he could be one of the better bargains of this free agent market.
PHR Mailbag: Tryouts, Blues, Rangers, Chara, Draft
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include PTO candidates, St. Louis’ now-vacated captaincy, the state of the back end for the Rangers, Zdeno Chara’s future, and the recently-completed 2020 NHL Entry Draft. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back for it in last week’s mailbag.
lapcheung39: Which player will most likely get a contract or PTO from teams that are dealing with a depleted roster?
There are going to be a lot of teams looking for players on PTO agreements between now and training camp. Some teams will be looking to try to fill the last roster spot or two while others may have interest in bringing some in for a potential taxi squad in case the NHL does like MLB did this past season in an effort to try to reduce the amount of shuffling with the farm teams. On the flip side, many players will be looking for one of those in a last-ditch effort to try to catch on somewhere, especially with opportunities overseas largely dried up at the moment. It’s hard to single out a particular player who might get one as there will undoubtedly be dozens handed out but here are a few that could be in that situation among players that suited up at in least 50 NHL games last season.
Madison Bowey – Detroit opted to non-tender him this offseason to avoid the arbitration process and the fact he hasn’t signed elsewhere yet is notable. Bowey’s only 25 and is a right-shot option while his price tag should be low. Given the dearth of righties with experience out there, it’s reasonable to think he should have signed already. Since he hasn’t, it seems like teams will be waiting to see if he’ll accept a tryout first instead of committing guaranteed money now.
Michael Frolik – The winger had a really tough year with both Calgary and Buffalo (especially when compared to his then-$4.3MM price tag) but he’s only one season removed from a 34-point campaign. There has been overseas interest but by all accounts, Frolik wants to take another run at an NHL spot and if he’s willing to take a lesser role, there should be some takers.
Tim Schaller – Another one that was overpaid on his last deal, Schaller has quietly spent most of the past four years in the NHL (241 games played in that span), mostly in a fourth line role. If he wants to hang around and fight for a 12th or 13th forward spot on a roster, he will quite likely have to do it via the PTO route as it’s hard to see him getting a guaranteed contract with quite a few players still unsigned.
Again, the PTO market is very likely going to be busier than normal and with the state of the market being what it is at the moment, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a notable player or two be forced to go that route.
vincent k. mcmahon: With Alex Pietrangelo now gone, who will be the new Blues captain? I think Ryan O’Reilly should be at the top of the pecking order.
That seems like the logical choice. Alex Steen was the other alternate captain and he’s unlikely to have much of a role next season and almost certainly won’t be brought back as a free agent after that so there’s no point in going that route. The injury factor would take Vladimir Tarasenko out of the equation as well even though he’s been there for a while.
Naming a captain isn’t something a team wants to do every couple of years so you either name a budding star that you’re building around or a veteran that’s signed for a while. They don’t really have anyone in the first category and among the veterans, it’s hard to see them handing it to one of Pietrangelo’s replacements in Justin Faulk or Torey Krug. Up front, there are only three veterans signed for three years (or more) in O’Reilly, Brayden Schenn, and Oskar Sundqvist. It’s safe to rule Sundqvist out so that leaves Schenn who is signed for six more years instead of just three for O’Reilly.
Considering O’Reilly already wears the ‘A’, he’s the front-runner for the spot. Beyond him, Schenn is the only other one that seems somewhat likely to get that role (if they opt to name a new captain at all).
acarneglia: What’s next for the Rangers rebuild?
@Sully_from: How do you see the Rangers D playing out, Trouba, Fox, DeAngelo, Ryan Lindgren, Libor Hajek, K’Andre Miller, and Nils Lundkvist are eight players for six spots not to mention Brendan Smith. Who gets traded, position changed?
Getting a long-term second center would be ideal but it’s probably not going to be Ryan Strome and Filip Chytil isn’t ready for that role yet. I’d like to see him get eased into that role a bit next year to help try to see if he can fill that hole in the future so that’s one thing I think they could do next season.
The other hole of note is on the left side of their back end. As the second question notes, the strength of New York’s defense both in terms of quality and quantity is right-shot defenders. It’s great to have that much depth on that side (especially given the fact it’s the harder of the two sides to get quality depth for) but at some point, that needs to be spun off to fill a weakness. If it’s not a new 2C, flipping an impact righty for an impact left on the blueline is a logical next step to take for GM Jeff Gorton.
As for the current state of their back end, I don’t think much of anything is going to happen unless the RD for LD trade comes up. Lundkvist is signed with SHL Lulea for the entire season and while that presents the opportunity for him to join New York midseason potentially given the later start to the NHL season, that won’t affect anything now. Miller will likely need some time with AHL Hartford as well. They’ve hedged their bets with adding veterans Jack Johnson and Anthony Bitetto who will likely serve as placeholders for the youngsters (which could include Hajek if he needs more time). Having Smith as someone that can play on the third pairing or the wing will be handy and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him shift between the two roles again. Lindgren will get a bigger role next season and Johnson may have to play more than a nominal role until one of Miller or Hajek is ready to push him down a pairing.
bigalval: Chara signs with the Kings on a one-year deal and a coaching job when he retires?
I have to admit, when I thought of possible non-Boston landing spots for Chara, Los Angeles was not on my radar but the idea does make some sense. There are definitely openings on their back end and having him around to work with some of their youngsters like Michael Anderson and Tobias Bjornfot would certainly be beneficial. As those two improve, then Chara could be slid down into a lesser role which is probably more ideal for him at this stage of his career.
The question I have is that if he decides to leave Boston (and I’m only saying if to that one as it’s quite possible he stays in the end), does he really want to go to a rebuilding team that doesn’t seem to have an eye on making the playoffs next season? Or would he rather go to a contender, even if it means more of a restricted role?
If this was to happen, I wonder if Chara would go in to the deal knowing that he’d be likely to be traded closer to the trade deadline where he could give the Kings a shortlist of teams he’d be willing to go to. (If there is enough interest in him, some sort of no-trade clause would seemingly be likely.) If that’s something either side isn’t open to doing, then it’d be difficult to see a path for Chara to play there next season.
backhandinbaptist: Is there a reason Noel Gunler fell out of the first round? Fantasy-wise Dobber has him in top 10, and central scouting has him as #9 among EU skaters, but Dobber did mention there were perceived (but mainly false according to them) attitude issues. Any reasons he won’t turn into a top-level offensive talent as many scouts have him pegged as?
The Mistake of Giving Eugene Melnyk a Liver Transplant: Who were the biggest steals in the draft? Yes, I know we won’t be able to adequately judge for years but come on it’s October and there is no hockey!
There are some prospects where scouts are split on the overall upside and Gunler fits into that category. Rankings were all over the board with him (his CSB rating when coupled with the others put him in a late 1st/early 2nd range) and while there is some offensive upside (I wouldn’t go as far as calling it top-level though), the rest of his game (defense, skating, and shift-to-shift consistency) seems to be questioned. Not having a chance to play in the World Juniors may have raised a few eyebrows as well and presented one of those ‘what do they know that we don’t’ type of situations that can send a player dropping. Having said that, getting him at 41 was a great pick in my books and Carolina getting him and Seth Jarvis with their top two selections was a fantastic start to their draft.
As for steals, Hendrix Lapierre at 22 qualifies if he can stay healthy. It’s a big if considering everything he went through last year but he went in looking like a top-ten talent. Assuming he does stay healthy, that should be a good value selection for Washington and with their top centers locked up for a while, they can afford to bring him along slowly.
A little further down is Florida’s selection of Ty Smilanic at 74. He’s another player that was limited by injuries but profiled to be a higher pick than that heading into the season. He needs a fair bit of development still and going the college route will afford him the longer opportunity to do so. If he can get back to that better level, he could be a middle-six forward which would be a nice pickup near the middle of the third round.
I’d also throw Martin Chromiak at 128 to the Kings in there. There is a lot of uncertainly with him having only played half a year in the OHL having played in the Extraliga before that. That wasn’t a great developmental environment for him and likely caused part of his drop but he’s someone that I thought was going to be off the board well before that spot. In the fifth round, it’s not even a gamble at that point but there is certainly some upside.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Why Taylor Hall Will Be The Can’t-Miss UFA In 2021 That He Expected To Be In 2020
Taylor Hall is certainly not complaining about making $8MM this season. Considering that the flat salary cap has depressed the market to the point that only four unrestricted free agents have signed deals with an AAV of $6MM or more this off-season – and Hall is the only forward to do so – the talented winger is likely content with his pact with the Buffalo Sabres. For now, that is. Heading into the 2019-20 season, even $8MM seemed like a low cap hit for Hall’s next deal and no one would have guessed that he would settle for a one-year deal. This was not the free agent frenzy and massive long-term deal expected for the Hart Trophy winner. However, one year could make all the difference.
Hall, 28, is one of the few players in the NHL who should not be content with an $8MM valuation. The 2010 first overall pick, Hall has scored at a rate of .9 points per game over his ten-year career, including four seasons at over a point per game and no seasons below .74 since his rookie year. A five-time 20-goal scorer, including 39 tallies (and 93 points) in his 2017-18 MVP season, Hall is a proven scorer in the NHL. A player who has also proven that he can excel on poor teams in which he is the undisputed best player, Hall has managed all of this production through rebuilds with the Edmonton Oilers and New Jersey Devils. The ceiling is limitless of what Hall could do on a talented contender.
Given the New Jersey Devils’ rebuild status entering the 2019-20 season, Hall had long been speculated to hit the open market once his contract expired. The Devils pursued a contract extension with their star forward, but to no avail. Perhaps Hall’s injury-plagued 33-game season in 2018-19 played a role in the Devils reluctance to ante up or maybe it was Hall who decided he had done enough for rebuilding squads. Regardless of the reason, Hall was traded in December. However, rather than joining a legitimate playoff team, Hall joined the fringe Arizona Coyotes and again took on the responsibility of being the team’s best player. The result of the whole season was 52 points in 65 games, a strong season for most but a disappointment for Hall as a steep drop-off in per-game production compared to his prior two seasons.
With an injury dominating his 2018-19 campaign and poor results (by his standards) to show for 2019-20, Hall’s MVP status had taken a hit two years removed from winning the Hart. It showed on the open market, as teams were not willing to hand out a long-term, big-money deal to a player that they would not have hesitated to hand a blank check not long ago. The flat cap also didn’t help, as teams have been risk-averse this off-season and not willing to sacrifice cap space by getting into bidding wars. Hall still had multiple offers, but by all accounts they were one-year or short-term offers at below market value.
How does the superstar winger rebound? It begins with the team he decided to sign with. Although it seemingly came out of nowhere, Hall’s decision to join the Buffalo Sabres could prove to be a stroke of genius. Joining Jack Eichel on the Sabres’ top line, Hall with finally play with an elite center for the first time in his career. Eichel’s per-game scoring numbers have improved in each of his five NHL seasons and he has been a point-per-game or better for two years in a row. With Hall at his side, that trend will only continue. Barring an injury, both players have 100-point upside this season.
There is one factor that could interrupt the dynamic scoring potential of Hall and Eichel and that is a trade. Even with the dangerous duo, the Sabres are still unlikely to challenge for a playoff spot and Hall may find himself back on the trade block at the 2021 deadline. However, another smart move made by Hall and his camp was to get a No-Movement Clause on his one-year deal. Unlike the moves to New Jersey and Arizona that Hall had no say in, if a trade is made this year, it will have to be with his approval. Aware of now the deadline move to the Coyotes failed to help his market value, Hall will be careful to choose a team where he can continue to score while finally making a deep run in the playoffs.
Once he is finally a free agent once more, and almost certainly coming off a strong season barring unforeseen circumstances, Hall will also benefit from a market with less competing talent. The 2021 free agent class does not have an Alex Pietrangelo to overshadow Hall. Alex Ovechkin is the biggest potential name, but he will almost certainly re-sign with the Washington Capitals and if not will not command a major deal at 35 years old. Other top forwards include Gabriel Landeskog, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jaden Schwartz, Tomas Tatar, and veterans like Ryan Getzlaf, David Krejci, and soon-to-be Buffalo teammate Eric Staal. These are all fine players, but no one to rival Hall barring a breakout season. The defense and goalie markets are lacking any star players in their prime that could attract suitors away from spending on Hall.
Not only will he likely standout as the top free agent available, but Hall will also have more suitors who can afford his services. With more notice and time to plan for cap management, even a long-term, possibly double-digit AAV deal for Hall will be easier for teams to swallow. The need could be greater as well; the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft threatens to strip a number of teams of scorers and they may turn to Hall as the best possible replacement. Expansion also adds one more team to the mix, as the Seattle Kraken could not make a bigger splash in their first season than adding the free agent market’s biggest name.
And what about the possibility that Buffalo wants to keep Hall beyond this season? It may have been a different administration in charge, but the Sabres just recently showed a willingness to pay up for a player that they had invested in when they signed Jeff Skinner to an eight-year, $72MM contract after acquiring him via trade. While the Sabres may already have $19MM invested in Eichel Skinner per season for years to come, they were willing to include Hall to make that $27MM this season and might not shy away from $30MM+ per year for their top three forwards.
The future is bright for Hall one way or another. It may not have been the off-season result that he or anyone else expected at this time last year, but at this time next year Hall will very likely beginning the next stage of his career on a lucrative long-term deal. How he gets there will be one of the best stories to follow in the coming NHL season.
Arbitration Breakdown: Linus Ullmark
While the Sabres were able to avoid one looming arbitration hearing earlier today when they re-signed Sam Reinhart, they have one on the horizon with goaltender Linus Ullmark. If they’re unable to reach an agreement before Monday’s hearing, they’ll be forced to await the ruling of the arbitrator as mid-hearing settlements can’t be reached this time. Here’s a closer look at his case.
Filings
Team: $1.8MM
Player: $4.1MM
Midpoint: $2.95MM
The Numbers
Ullmark has only been an NHL regular for two years now and both of those were spent in basic platoon situations with veteran Carter Hutton. Hutton has made 78 starts in that span with Ullmark checking in at 68 but the latter has had the slightly better numbers. The fact that Ullmark hasn’t been able to stake his claim to a bigger share of the workload certainly doesn’t help his arbitration case as it takes away the ability to use mid-tier starters as comparable contracts. Further restricting his options is his limited NHL experience overall; while he has played in parts of five straight NHL seasons, he hasn’t yet reached 100 games played.
On the flip side, what will help his cause is that Ullmark did improve his numbers considerably last season from his performance in 2018-19. His save percentage went up by ten points, his GAA went down by 42 points, and his win percentage of 50% was also an improvement and even stands out on a team that only won 43% of his games. By no means was this a dominant platform year but Ullmark’s improvement will look favorable in the eyes of an arbitrator and helps when looking through comparable contracts.
2019-20 Stats: 34 GP (34 starts), 17-14-3 record, 2.69 GAA, .915 SV%, 1 SO
Career Stats: 97 GP (92 starts), 41-41-10 record, 2.81 GAA, .911 SV%, 3 SO
Potential Comparables
Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries (or current-year equivalents) also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides.
Alexandar Georgiev (Rangers): Let’s look at one signed in recent weeks as a starting point. While this is a post-ELC deal (Ullmark is three seasons past that point), his numbers this season are relatively comparable to Ullmark’s as are his career totals. On top of that, he subjectively appears to fall within the same category as Ullmark – a young goalie with some perceived upside but whose overall performance seems to fall just below that of a starting netminder.
Contract (2020): Two years, $2.425MM AAV, 2.98 CH%
Platform Stats: 34 GP (32 starts), 17-14-2 record, 3.04 GAA, .910 SV%, 2 SO
Career Stats: 77 GP (71 starts), 35-31-7 record, 3.00 GAA, .913 SV%, 4 SO
Joonas Korpisalo (Blue Jackets): Korpisalo’s playoff performance skews things a bit more in his favor but the regular season numbers are much closer. His injury paved the way for Elvis Merzlikins to take a big chunk of playing time for himself and as a result, his 2019-20 numbers are quite similar to Ullmark’s and again, he’s a netminder that has yet to establish himself as a full-fledged starter and it’s worth noting as well that Korpisalo signed this deal in the same spot as Ullmark is, one year from UFA eligibility.
Contract (2020): Two years, $2.8MM AAV, 3.44 CH%
Platform Stats: 37 GP (35 starts), 19-12-5 record, 2.60 GAA, .911 SV%, 2 SO
Career Stats: 127 GP (116 starts), 60-43-14 record, 2.80 GAA, .908 SV%, 3 SO
Michal Neuvirth (Capitals) – Given the narrow window to try to work with (possible future starters with mixed results and around 100 career GP), let’s go back in time a little bit. There was a time where Washington hoped that Neuvirth could be a starter of the future. His platform year for this contract came in the lockout-shortened season so some extrapolation is necessary. This likely represents the high end of what Ullmark could stand to realistically receive.
Contract (2013): Two years, $2.4MM AAV, 3.73 CH%
Current-Year Equivalent: $3.04MM
Platform Stats: 13 GP (12 starts), 4-5-2 record, 2.74 GAA, .910 SV%, 0 SO
Career Stats: 121 GP (105 starts), 55-35-11 record, 2.66 GAA, .909 SV%, 7 SO
David Rittich (Flames) – Let’s now look at someone who had even less of a track record than Ullmark. When Rittich signed this deal, he had basically two years under his belt, one as a backup and one as the strong-side platoon starter. His platform numbers are slightly better than Ullmark’s but Ullmark’s longer track record could help offset that. Like Korpisalo, this is another deal in the one year from UFA category.
Contract (2019): Two years, $2.75MM AAV, 3.37 CH%
Current-Year Equivalent: $2.75MM (since the Upper Limit remains unchanged)
Platform Stats: 45 GP (42 starts), 27-9-5 record, 2.61 GAA, .911 SV%, 1 SO
Career Stats: 67 GP (58 starts), 35-15-8 record, 2.70 GAA, .909 SV%, 1 SO
Projection
Going through the list, it starts to become clear where Ullmark’s realistic settling spot is. A one-year contract should check in a little higher than Georgiev’s but below that of Rittich’s or Korpisalo’s. (Ullmark’s camp will likely try to argue Neuvirth but the more recent deals are the better comparables.) If it goes to a hearing, the arbitrator is limited to a one-year award as Ullmark is only one year away from UFA eligibility. That one-year award should check in around $2.55MM. If they settle before the hearing and do a two-year contract to avoid having him and Hutton expire at the same time, the AAV should check in closer to $2.7MM, just below Korpisalo and Rittich. Either way, it should come in below the midpoint of their two filings.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Free Agent Profile: Erik Haula
Despite the excitement of the free-agent flurry that started off the 2020 offseason, things have calmed down now quite a bit and yet there remain a number of free agents out there for teams to pick up. Yet with little cap room remaining for most the playoff hopefuls, teams are being extra cautious about paying out too much to free agents. especially if they are coming off a down season. That perfectly explains the situation for free-agent center Erik Haula, who has now found himself looking for a fourth team in just two-plus seasons and is coming off a 12-goal campaign last year.
The 29-year-old will be hitting 30 during the 2020-21 season and has dealt with numerous injuries, including a gruesome leg injury that held him to just 15 games in 2018-19. However, that hasn’t stopped teams from showing interest in the center, one of the few potential impact centers remaining on the free-agent market, who was ranked 16th in our PHR Top-50 Free Agents. If healthy, he has the potential to fill a second-line center role or be a top third-line option in the middle. He has the potential to put up goals, scoring 29 goals in Vegas’ inaugural season in 2017-18.
Despite Vegas’ love for Haula, the team even had cap issues after their second season and were forced to send Haula to the Carolina Hurricanes to free up some cap room. Haula signed a three-year, $8.25MM contract ($2.75MM AAV) with Vegas as part of a deal for the Golden Knights to select him in the expansion draft from Minnesota and looked like a significant find after the first year. The injury held up that outlook for the next season and Carolina was hoping to recapture some of that offensive magic last season. Instead, he struggled through more knee injuries on and off and only appeared in 41 games with 12 goals before the Hurricanes packaged him to Florida for Vincent Trocheck. Haula scored no goals in seven games for the Panthers before the team’s season ended.
However in the right system and with plenty of extra time to allow his knee to fully mend, Haula could fill a significant hole in a team’s middle and if everything goes right, could thrive there.
Potential Suitors
Not surprisingly, Haula has received significant interest from at least 10-12 teams, yet no deal has been struck. The forward is likely looking for a potential long-term deal, deals that aren’t really offered to players right now as several free agents have had to ink one-year deals in hopes that the 2021 offseason may prove to be more lucrative and hopes that COVID-19 may settle down in a year.
Perhaps one of the most obvious suitors would be returning to the one team where he had the most success. The Golden Knights might be a perfect fit for Haula as the team was forced to send off center Paul Stastny to Winnipeg to save cap room and with Cody Glass‘ rookie season having also been interrupted by injury, there is a clear opening for a No. 2 center in the system. Of course, the team is so tight against the cap that the team doesn’t even have the money for a minimum-salaried deal without clearing more cap room, which will be difficult. The team has already made it clear they will not be moving now back-up goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, which means they will be spending $12MM on their goalies this coming year.
Rumors that the Pittsburgh Penguins could be looking for a third-line center to fill in some depth for another Stanley Cup run with their veteran squad. Pittsburgh doesn’t have a clear-cut third or fourth-line center, so Haula would be a big addition to a team that needs to get more scoring from their bottom-six. Of course, the team must look at their cap issues as well. Other teams such as the New Jersey Devils and the Vancouver Canucks have come up although there are likely many others, but only the Devils have the cap room to easily bring him in.
Projected Contract
PHR initially projected Haula to receive a three-year, $11.25MM deal, although that number now looks quite high considering some of the contracts that other players have received in the last week or so. Players ranked much higher, such as Evgenii Dadonov and Tyler Toffoli each had to settle for less than they were hoping for. Dadonov received three years and $15MM from Ottawa, while Toffoli signed a four-year deal at $17MM with the Montreal Canadiens.
Considering that Haula is coming off two injury-plagued and disappointing offensive seasons, it doesn’t seem likely that he can easily pry a long-term deal away from any team and may have to sign a one-year “prove it deal,” except for the fact that his services as a center could give him slightly more leverage than most free agents remaining on the market.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Free Agent Profile: Mikael Granlund
There are just two free agents left unsigned among the top ten of PHR’s Top 50 UFA’s. One of them, Mike Hoffman, has been a fixture on the rumor mill since the market opened, with as much discussion and speculation as anyone. The other is Mikael Granlund and things have been stunningly quiet surrounding the two-time 60+ point player.
Granlund, 28, is relatively young for a traditional UFA and has over 500 NHL games to his credit, recording over 100 career goals and over 350 career points. He is a proven asset on the power play and penalty kill, an efficient shooter, a strong possession player, and can play major minutes. Granlund may not be a household name, but he has been everything one would expect from a first-round draft pick. So why the apparent lack of interest?
It seems potential NHL suitors may be focused more on Granlund’s recent play rather than looking at the big picture. The versatile forward was traded by the Minnesota Wild to the Nashville Predators at the trade deadline in 2019. Since that time, his scoring rate dropped from .69 to .44 points per game. That is quite the decline and not what any impending free agent wants to see, but should it really be the death knell for Granlund’s prospects on the open market? In less than a season and a half in Nashville, Granlund played for two different head coaches with the Predators. He did not fit the system of former bench boss Peter Laviolette, who held the job through the end of 2018-19 and into early January of this past season. During that time, Granlund’s usage was severely limited compared to his time in Minnesota, both in overall ice time and special teams role. During that time his scoring suffered and he simply did not look like the same player. Once John Hynes took over, Granlund’s play recovered in a big way. He saw an uptick in ice time, began shooting more often and scoring more as a result, and finally won back a consistent power play role. Granlund even tied a career best in possession with a 52.4 Corsi For %.
Granlund’s play in the latter half of this past season more closely resembles his time with the Wild. A reliable top-six forward, Granlund was a pivotal player for Minnesota for over five years after taking on a full-time role at just 21. He topped 20 goals twice and 50 points three times, never finishing with less than 39 points. He also proved himself to be a durable player, missing only nine total games over his final four seasons with the team while skating over 18 minutes per game each year. He also adapted to a move from center to wing without missing a beat and still proved to be a capable pivot when needed.
In the right system, Granlund can still be the player he was in Minnesota and showed flashes of down the stretch this past year, rather than the one who struggled after moving to Nashville. That is why the lack of interest – at least based on close to nothing coming out the rumor mill – remains such a mystery.
Potential Suitors
Unfortunately for Granlund, one of the teams that could most use a player of his ability and has the cap space to sign him is none other than the Nashville Predators. Although Granlund did perform better once Hynes took over, it seems unlikely that he would be open to a return after his experience with the club was sour overall.
The Boston Bruins are also known to be looking for a forward. Granlund would have the opportunity to play with former Minnesota teammate Charlie Coyle and former Nashville teammate Craig Smith on a line that could have instant chemistry. However, the Bruins are lacking in cap space with Jake DeBrusk also in need of a new deal, so one of those two players would need to take a significant discount.
Perhaps the best fit is with the Columbus Blue Jackets. Columbus moved out considerable salary in hopes of landing at least one big time free agent forward, but so far have merely swapped Josh Anderson for Max Domi and signed aging Mikko Koivu, another former Granlund teammate. The team needs to make another splash and inject some more skill into their forward corps and Granlund makes a lot of sense.
By all accounts, the Predators, Bruins, and Blue Jackets are the finalists to sign the aforementioned Hoffman, who PHR has ranked ahead of Granlund among available UFA’s. At least one of these teams seems likely to turn to Granlund when they miss out on Hoffman, which may explain the lack of noise surrounding Granlund while the Hoffman sweepstakes continues.
If it is not one of these three, a rebuilding club like the Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings, Los Angeles Kings or New Jersey Devils makes sense on a one-year “show me” deal. Don’t rule out a return to Minnesota, where Granlund found immense success, but only if the Wild can open up some space.
Projected Contract
PHR initially projected Granlund to land a four-year $20MM deal in free agency and even that $5MM AAV seemed low for a player nearly guaranteed to put up 50+ points for many years still to come. However, the flat cap has had an even bigger impact than anyone imagined on free agent deals and the odds of Granlund getting that term and value seems slim. This rings especially true after Tyler Toffoli and Evgenii Dadonov, both ranked ahead of Granlund, signed such measly deals recently. Based on those two contracts, Granlund is likely looking at an AAV closer to $4MM on a short-term deal.
While Granlund’s slip in production in 2019-20 landed him behind Dadonov and Toffoli in our rankings, he has a more proven history of NHL success than either one and would stand a better chance of making the most of a one-year deal and cashing in as a free agent again next summer. Especially given the forthcoming Expansions Draft next summer, a one-year deal has added value for interested teams. Whether he ultimately signs with a playoff hopeful or a rebuild, a one-year, $4MM contract sounds about right for Granlund at this point – and stands to be an incredible bargain for whoever signs it.
PHR Mailbag: Sabres, Sweeney, TV, Blue Jackets, Hoffman, Predators
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Buffalo defensemen, Don Sweeney’s tenure in Boston, the new voice of NBC hockey, the relative inactivity in Columbus after freeing up cap room, Mike Hoffman’s fit with a rebuilding team, and Nashville’s need for forward help. If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s edition.
LarryJ4: What is the holdup for Buffalo moving Ristolainen or Miller? Gotta think this is what is delaying a move for a more capable goalie (Varlamov, Korpisalo, Kuemper) to pair up with Ullmark.
I have to admit, I don’t see a goalie move for them coming this offseason. There’s definitely a need to upgrade on the Linus Ullmark–Carter Hutton tandem but I believe they still think that Ullmark has some untapped upside yet. The challenge is that Hutton and his $2.75MM cap hit need to go in any trade. If Arizona wanted to move Darcy Kuemper, part of the impetus for doing so would be considerable cap savings. They can’t get that by taking Hutton back. That takes a trade with Columbus out of the equation as well and it’s doubtful that the Islanders would move Semyon Varlamov until they see if Ilya Sorokin is indeed ready to be a starter in the NHL. He hasn’t played a second in this league yet though so the time isn’t right to trade him.
Let’s look at the defensemen now, beginning with Miller. His name has been in trade speculation dating back to last year when it was clear he wasn’t a great fit with Buffalo. They didn’t find a taker then when teams believed they had more flexibility than they do now. Perhaps there’s a lateral swap for another defenseman but I’d put better odds on him finding his bearings in his season year with the Sabres than landing a considerable upgrade. At the very least, a third-pairing defenseman isn’t going to be a centerpiece of a trade for a starting goalie.
Ristolainen’s a bit more interesting in that he is such a polarizing player. He has unquestionable offensive skill but while his play in his own end was better last year under Ralph Krueger, it still wasn’t great. I suspect they believe he’ll improve in his second season with Krueger behind the bench so I don’t think they want to move him even though there may be some teams that look at Ristolainen and think they can ‘fix’ his defensive issues. But again, that would be more of a lateral swap than a move for a goalie.
Long story short, I expect Buffalo to give Ullmark a bigger portion of the workload next season and decide if he’s part of their long-term plans or if they have to change things up for 2021-22 where they may want to try their hand at the free agent market to fill that spot.
FireDonny: How is it possible for a GM to strike out on SO many high first-round picks, late 1st reaches (unskilled Trent Frederic) and not be fired? Not to mention his genius plan to sign bottom roster filler at the start of free agency while others sign stars. I’m sick of Dommy Moore’s, McKegg’s, the ghost of Kevan Miller, etc. Smith signing not enough.
Do you think Sweeney needs to make a real move to save his job? Or did Jacobs taking a bath on some property handcuff him? They can all go but Don can’t draft or trade.
VonBrewski: Is Don Sweeney the worst GM in Hockey? They supposedly have a lot more cap space than most teams. Neely says after they are eliminated that they need to get tougher and they need more scoring. They were ready to change the roster to compete for a cup.
Free agency comes and (sorry Smith, I like you as a player) *POOF* no one traded, re-signing most players, Krug gone (knew it and was ok with it) But where is the change? Where is the infusion? I have been a Bruins fan since the ’70s and I swear we are back to the Harry Sinden/Mike O’Connell days….suck, suck, suck!!!
It hasn’t been a particularly fun offseason for Boston, to say the least. I like the addition of Craig Smith – he’s a capable middle-six forward and $3.1MM is a nice price tag. But it goes downhill after that with nothing being done to replace Torey Krug on the left side of their back end while Zdeno Chara is unsigned as well (though he could return). And then there are the questions regarding the availability of Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak to start next season after their recent surgeries. I think they have a move of note left in them (not a huge splash but an impact player being added) and they’ll need to go short-term with Jake DeBrusk to make that happen and stay cap-compliant. They’ll be near the Upper Limit when all is said and done.
I haven’t been a big fan of their draft strategy either going back to their three straight first-round picks in 2015. DeBrusk is a decent player but they needed to hit on two of those at least. And to be fair, they’ve only had one first-round pick in the last three years while being short on picks in general which has contributed to a weakening farm system. I can’t lay all of that on Sweeney as while general managers select the scouting staff, it’s usually the scouts that call the shots on the draft picks or at least have heavy influence. And avoiding the CHL altogether in four of their last five drafts is a bit of a strange strategy although it does afford more time to get a better feel for who to sign and who to let go.
I wouldn’t call Sweeney the worst GM in hockey but I do think it’s fair to suggest that he should be feeling a little pressure. The cap levelling out sealed their fate with Krug but this is a core that’s built to win now. Once their window closes and the focus shifts to the next group of players to build around, is Sweeney the one to be calling the shots on that? He’ll need some better success in player development over the next couple of years to help make his case. In the meantime, he needs to find a notable player to add to their roster and I think he’ll accomplish that.
PensJacksCanes: The biggest free agent who is the best at his position is still unsigned. With Mike Emrick retiring will UFA John Forslund become the voice of the NHL?
First off, a tip of the hat to Emrick who had an outstanding career and as a writer, I appreciate how he incorporated so many different synonyms into his calls. I know his phraseology for calling routine plays with some variety wasn’t for everyone but between that, his overall game-calling skills, and his energy, he was one of a kind and his shoes will be tough to fill.
My first thought upon hearing the news was that Forslund makes sense. He already had a notable role on national broadcasts and he’s no longer the voice of the Hurricanes which still feels odd typing. He’s a contender if nothing else although it wouldn’t shock me either if there wasn’t an immediate full-time replacement. They have a good stable of broadcasters to draw from and it’s possible that they just go with those without naming a successor.
Maybe it’s just me trying to think outside of the box but I don’t think it’s just NBC that will have a say in this. The national TV deal in the United States is up soon and there will be more contenders for those rights than in past negotiations given the value of live sports content. If the NHL has a certain preference for someone in the number one spot, I could see NBC going with whoever that is in the hopes of currying favor in talks for those national TV rights.
Baji Kimran: I’m a Blue Jackets fan and I can’t see them acquiring Patrik Laine. They are in a position where they must take care of Pierre-Luc Dubois first and signing him may take a while. They must make sure that if any club extends Dubois an offer sheet that they are in a position to match it. Save for maybe signing Mikael Granlund if he’s still available, I think they’re done for the time being. I think once the Jackets are in a position to address Laine, he will be long gone. Does my assessment seem reasonable to you?
I think you’re on the right track. I know that GM Jarmo Kekalainen has suggested that part of the impetus for clearing up cap room with their recent moves was to hedge against an offer sheet for Dubois but I think that threat has come and gone. How many teams have enough cap space left to make a real push? Of those, how many have the budget to do so? Do they have their own picks and a deep enough prospect pool to justify going that route? There was a time where the possibility of an offer sheet for Dubois was plausible but I think that time has passed. If anyone is eyeing one now, the focus should be squarely on Tampa Bay.
Depending on what Vladislav Gavrikov gets as he’s also unsigned, I agree that they’re basically done other than maybe one more cheap depth upgrade. By the time Dubois and Gavrikov are signed, most of the $12.9MM in projected cap space they’ll have left (per CapFriendly) will be gone. Accordingly, I’m not sure they’ll have the space to bring Granlund in without moving someone else out first which is something that’s a lot easier said than done in this marketplace.
Laine with the Blue Jackets would be interesting. He’d certainly give them a boost offensively but he and John Tortorella could be a risky match. However, I don’t think Laine is fit for them from a financial perspective. I expect Kekalainen to try to set Dubois’ deal as the ceiling for Columbus forwards. Laine, a restricted free agent with arbitration rights next summer, is almost certainly going to come in higher than what Dubois will get. It’s hard to make that case to Dubois with Laine in the fold and if they were to acquire him after getting that contract done, it’d be a bit of an insult to their top center. Having said all that, I’m still not certain that Laine winds up moving; I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s still with Winnipeg next season.
tigers22: Would the Red Wings be better off giving Mike Hoffman a one-year, $6MM deal and see what they can get at the deadline rather than trading for Tyler Johnson and a pick?
It’d be much better from Detroit’s perspective. They’d get a better half-season contribution from Hoffman than they would from Johnson and if they were willing to retain on the deal at the deadline, getting him at $3MM would be very appealing, especially when a lot of contenders will have minimal cap space. They could land a pretty good return in that scenario.
The question, for me, is if Hoffman would be willing to sign somewhere where he knows he’s going to be dealt a few months later. He’s certainly willing to take a one-year contract but I think his preference would be to sign with a team that will keep him around all year. Hoffman would certainly get a chance to put up some good numbers in a big role with the Red Wings which might help his case a year from now but a sign and eventual trade scenario is probably not one he wants to take unless talks with other teams stall out.
Johnson’s a nice player but with Tampa Bay needing a team to assume the four years remaining on his deal with a $5MM AAV in full, it would require quite the inducement to do so. Give me the better player on a short-term deal anytime in that scenario.
@bwiz77: The Preds need a proven top-six winger to play with Duchene. Do you think that is coming via a UFA signing or trade?
I agree that there’s a need but unless it’s Hoffman, I’m not convinced that there’s an upgrade move coming. The other free agent forward options aren’t exactly proven other than Granlund who has been ruled out of returning already. GM David Poile has said that he wants to give his prospects a chance and I think their best-case scenario is that Eeli Tolvanen eventually steps into that role, even if there are some growing pains along the way.
Assuming Nashville is able and willing to use their full remaining cap space, the trade market may be the better way to go. While teams looking to shed money would prefer not to move impact players to do so, that could change as we get closer to the start of next season, whenever that winds up being. Deadlines force activity and GMs often want to wait until the last minute before pulling the trigger.
If the Predators can land Hoffman, that would fill the void, albeit for the short term since it doesn’t sound like a lucrative long-term deal is on the horizon for him. But if he goes elsewhere, patience may be key here in terms of either waiting out the trade market or hoping that a prospect steps up during the season and fills that spot from within.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag
The frenzy of free agency has slowed considerably in the last several days as teams try to figure out how all the pieces fit together. Alex Pietrangelo is headed to the strip, while Torey Krug takes his place in St. Louis. There are still several difference-makers available on the open market, but who knows when they’ll actually decide on a place to play next season. Months remain before training camps even open, with no expectation of games before the end of the year.
With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR mailbag.
If you missed our last one before the offseason began, it was split into two parts you can read here and here. In the first, Brian gave some predictions for some of the Western Conference contenders, while also giving his thoughts on the state of officiating in the NHL. In the second, he correctly predicted that Nikita Zadorov would be elsewhere when the 2020-21 season began, before discussing the future of the NHL and the potential of having a full season with no fans in the buildings.
You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. We’ll try to get to everything when the mailbag runs this weekend.
PHR’s 2020 Top 50 NHL Unrestricted Free Agents
Originally published on October 8
It’s been a long year already. The entire world went into a months-long hibernation while dealing with a public health crisis and sports went with it. For quite a while it wasn’t clear when hockey would even return. The normal free agent period in July came and went with no action while the league held out hope for a Stanley Cup presentation in the fall. After tireless work from players, coaches, and staff that kept the bubble secure, the Tampa Bay Lightning managed to lift the trophy.
Now, after two days of draft excitement, the focus is squarely on free agency. On Friday, a huge number of players will become unrestricted free agents allowed to sign with any team in the league. Teams will be allowed to offer contracts up to seven years in length.
Today it’s time to unveil our Top 50 Unrestricted Free Agent List. The rankings were voted on by the PHR writing team, based on a combination of talent and projected demand, not necessarily their total dollar amounts. This year’s group is headlined by a star defenseman that isn’t even 24 months removed from captaining his team to the Stanley Cup. Behind him are several other offensive weapons capable of changing the makeup of a team. Still further down the list are several starting goaltenders, even a Vezina Trophy winner.
All predictions are independent and have no bearing on each other, while each player is presumed to be signing a one-way contract. Retirement, Europe and professional tryouts are real possibilities for many of them, but those options have not been used as predictions. The voting was done prior to the buyout period, meaning names like Bobby Ryan, Henrik Lundqvist and Kyle Turris will not appear. It was also before the qualifying offer deadline, meaning names like Andreas Athanasiou will remain absent.
1. Alex Pietrangelo — Vegas Golden Knights — 7 years, $61.25MM — The PHR team was unanimous in the decision to put Pietrangelo at the top of the list after another incredible season for the St. Louis Blues. Quite frankly, it’s incredibly rare for a player this well-rounded to appear in the free agent market at all, let alone 18 months removed from hoisting a Stanley Cup over his head as captain. The 30-year-old right-handed defenseman can do it all, providing strong defense and top-end offense all while logging 24 minutes a night in all situations. It’s hard to find a reason any team would not want to go after Pietrangelo, but if there is one it’s his age. If he were three years younger you might be looking at the biggest contract ever given to a defenseman in the NHL, with more than half the league expressing serious interest. As it stands, with his 31st birthday coming quickly, only contenders will likely be involved in the talks. One thing to note is that Pietrangelo’s market may not be limited to those teams with a large amount of cap space. He’s the kind of player you make room for if you have a chance.
(Signed with Vegas, 7 year, $61.6MM)
2. Taylor Hall — Nashville Predators — 7 years, $56MM — In any normal year the 2018 Hart Trophy winner would surely be the top free agent available, if he were available at all. 2020 is not a normal year. After a solid-if-unspectacular season that saw Hall switch teams halfway through the year, get sent home for six months, and then brought back for a nine-game postseason, he’s not set up for the payday that everyone expected. In fact, Hall may decide to sign a short-term contract and hope revenues start to return to normal down the road before cashing in again. He’s only 28 (though he’ll turn 29 in November) and provides the kind of instant offense that contenders are looking for on the free agent market. But he’s also a player that has often struggled to mesh styles with certain linemates and has played in just 14 postseason contests over his entire career. If a reasonable long-term contract is offered this fall, it will be hard to pass up with the uncertainty that the future still represents.
(Signed with Buffalo, 1 year, $8MM)
3. Torey Krug — Detroit Red Wings — 7 years, $49MM — After consensus picks to begin the list, PHR went three-for-four with Krug at No. 3. The real question is whether the cap-strapped free agent market values the dynamic defender that highly. Krug is undoubtedly a talented player as one of the top power play quarterbacks in the league and a productive puck-mover at even strength as well. He plays both an intelligent and intense style that has endeared him to his teammates and fans in Boston but Krug is not your textbook top pair defenseman. A player whose minutes have been limited, whose defensive assignments have been sheltered, and whose size and strength preclude him from a penalty kill role, Krug is somewhat of a one-dimensional offensive defenseman. In most years, his massive potential for production would make Krug’s defensive shortcomings less of an issue. But in an off-season with less money to go around, the luxury of a high-priced second-pair defender and power play specialist may not be as attractive. Krug has a substantial offer on the table from the Bruins but will test the market to see if he can find a better deal elsewhere.
(Signed with St. Louis, 7 years, $45.5MM)
4. Mike Hoffman — Colorado Avalanche — 5 years, $29.5MM — If Hall is the best offensive weapon available, Hoffman’s not all that far behind. Sure, he doesn’t have a Hart Trophy on his mantle, but Hoffman has been one of the most consistent goal scorers in the league over the last six seasons and is the kind of player that can completely change a powerplay. Since the start of the 2014-15 season, Hoffman has scored 169 goals, putting him 16th among all NHL players. That’s ahead of names like Mark Scheifele, Nathan MacKinnon and Phil Kessel and makes him more valuable than many believe. Playing in Ottawa and Florida he hasn’t received very much league-wide attention for his exploits, but make no mistake the market for Hoffman will be strong. If someone misses out on the chance to bring in Hall, he’ll be the next door they knock on to give their squad a little bit more juice in 2020-21. Coming off a deal that carried an average annual value of $5.19MM, he’ll likely be in for a nice pay raise.
5. Jacob Markstrom — Calgary Flames — 4 years, $24MM — Most years, Markstrom would be licking his chops at the chance to hit the open market as the clear top goaltender available. Sergei Bobrovky did it in 2019 and landed a seven-year, $70MM deal that included $33MM in signing bonuses. While Markstrom doesn’t have the same resume as Bobrovsky, he should have been in for a massive payday that secured the rest of his career. Almost 31, he would have likely been signing his final big contract and looking to cash in. Now, in the upside-down that is 2020, Markstrom is just one of more than a dozen solid goaltenders available through free agency and trade. One Robin Lehner re-signed with the Vegas Golden Knights it was clear that Markstrom represented the best available free agent netminder, but even that is more about timing than performance. Markstrom is coming off a season that earned him fourth place in the Vezina Trophy voting but has only really been an upper-echelon NHL goaltender for the last few seasons. His performance isn’t going to plummet and his status as a top target moves him up this list, but teams shouldn’t fall into the trap of believing that being the best available makes him the best in the league.
(Signed with Calgary, 6 years, $36MM)
6. Tyler Toffoli — Buffalo Sabres — 5 years, $27.5MM — Toffoli is going to test the market and will receive plenty of interest. The best available right wing, Toffoli is also on the younger side of the UFA market at just 28. With 30-goal, 50-point upside paired with solid defensive instincts, Toffoli is a valuable two-way forward who can fit into any scheme or system. He also has experience in the playoffs, as well as leading a rebuilding club (both over an up-and-down tenure with the L.A. Kings). A piece that almost every team in the NHL will at least kick the tires on, the competition for Toffoli’s services could be steep.
(Signed with Montreal, 4 years, $17MM)
7. Evgenii Dadonov — Nashville Predators — 4 years, $23MM — You missed out on Hoffman? Just sign his partner in crime, Dadonov, who actually could be considered a more well-rounded asset. The Russian winger has just three seasons under his belt since returning from the KHL but has performed well in each, posting a career-high of 28 goals and 70 points in 2018-19. The fact that he is also a capable defensive presence that earned Selke Trophy votes in 2018 and provides more offense at even-strength could make a savvy team target him over some of the names listed higher here. That does come with risk, however, as Dadonov will turn 32 this season and disappeared in the Panthers short postseason series this year. There’s value here, but Dadonov seems like the player who may get overpaid by the loser of a Hall bidding war.
(Signed with Ottawa, 3 years, $15MM)
8. Tyson Barrie — Winnipeg Jets — 1 year, $6MM — His time with Toronto was supposed to give him a chance to increase his already-impressive point production and give him a boost heading to the open market. That didn’t happen as his output dipped sharply but he still managed to be in the top-25 for scoring by a defenseman this past season. Barrie is a candidate to sign a short-term pillow contract to try to rebuild his value and take a shot at a potentially bigger deal next summer but as one of the next best options behind Pietrangelo, he could still land a sizable contract despite his disappointing campaign.
(Signed with Edmonton, 1 year, $3.75MM)
9. Mikael Granlund — New York Islanders — 4 years, $20MM — Which Granlund is a free agent suitor getting? Minnesota Granlund, a bona fide top-six forward who flirted with 70 points and was a reliable defensive presence? Or Nashville Granlund, an inconsistent scorer whose ice time and role were reduced? Odds are at least one team feels Granlund can return to the form he showed with the Wild earlier in his career, especially at just 28 years old. If a few teams feel similarly, the bidding war for Granlund could result in a contract higher than most are expecting after a down year with the Predators.
10. T.J. Brodie — Winnipeg Jets — 4 years, $20MM — He may not bring the flash of a Krug or Barrie, but Brodie is quietly one of the more reliable defenders in the NHL. Hidden somewhat out in Calgary for his whole career to this point, Brodie hasn’t received the accolades that he might have in a larger market. A close examination reveals a player who has been a consistent scorer and dependable defensive contributor for the past eight years and can provide immediate stability to any blue line. Brodie is a strong possession player who records blocks, takeaways and wins puck battles with regularity. While his scoring and ice time seem to have peaked several years ago, Brodie is still capable of playing meaningful minutes and producing. His drop-off in scoring this past season in particular, combined with his 30th birthday passing in June may drive down the price, but it could very well result in a bargain deal to whoever lands the reliable veteran.
(Signed with Toronto, 4 years, $20MM)
11. Braden Holtby — Chicago Blackhawks — 2 years, $12MM — That Bobrovsky contract was oh so close. After winning back his job and taking the Capitals all the way to a Stanley Cup victory in 2018, Holtby was back as the starter in the final year of his deal and looked like he was going to command a massive long-term deal. He’d won a Vezina, he’d won a Jennings, he’d won a Cup. He’d done this. Then the season began and everything went downhill. He allowed 15 goals in his first four games, losing three of them. In his fifth game he was pulled from the net after allowing three goals on three shots. By Christmas, Ilya Samsonov had posted a .914 save percentage and won nine of his 13 games. It was already obvious that the team would end up handing the reins to their youngster in 2020-21, even if people weren’t talking about it. Holtby would end the year with an .897, positing a goals-against-average over 3.00 for the first time in his ten-year career. Now, where does his market land? Is he being paid as the Vezina-Jennings-Stanley winner, or is he just a bounce-back candidate that comes cheap if you guarantee him an opportunity to start?
(Signed with Vancouver, 2 years, $8.6MM)
12. Chris Tanev — Pittsburgh Penguins — 4 years, $18MM — Where did the time go? Tanev will turn 31 in a few months but has still only played 514 games in the NHL, despite being excellent in nearly every one of them. The rugged defensive defenseman is one of the very best in his own end, but has never been able to stay on the ice for a whole season. In fact, his career-high in a single year is 70 games played, and he’s only even cracked 55 on four occasions. That’s just an unacceptable trend for teams looking to add a consistent presence, but his allure as a rock-solid top-four option will still bring several suitors to his doorstep on Friday afternoon. If you’re comfortable spending money on an excellent player who nevertheless may not be around when you need him most, Tanev is your guy.
(Signed with Calgary, 4 years, $18MM)
13. Travis Hamonic — Toronto Maple Leafs — 3 years, $12.5MM — Speaking of rugged defensive defensemen who have a history of injury, here’s Hamonic! While his injury list isn’t as long or as serious as Tanev’s, Hamonic has never played in more than 74 games in a single season. His absence from the Flames recent postseason run wasn’t injury-related, as the veteran defenseman opted out due to family considerations, but it still meant he didn’t get a chance to show what he can do on the biggest stage. For a player who seems bred for playoffs, he’s only suited up for 22 postseason games. You’re not getting a lot of offense from Hamonic these days. That 33-point season he had for the Islanders in 2015 is a thing of the past, but for a team looking to stabilize a top-four pair with a player who can hold his own in the defensive end while also sticking up for a teammate, he’s a fine option.
14. Sami Vatanen — Calgary Flames — 4 years, $19.5MM — Oft-injured defensemen seem to be the trend at this part of the list, as Vatanen has dealt with his own ailments over the years. The 29-year-old has never played in more than 72 games in a single season and only hit the 50 and 47 marks in the last two. This season was quite a curious situation, as Vatanen was acquired by the Carolina Hurricanes at the deadline only to debut in the playoffs. He was dealing with an injury at the time of the trade and didn’t make it back by the time the season was canceled, so his first time donning the Carolina sweater was when they took on the New York Rangers in the qualification round. If you can take anything from the return to play it’s that Vatanen is a versatile defender that can fit with several different kinds of partners but may not have quite the offensive upside he once showed in Anaheim. There’s a real chance for an overpayment here if a team believes he’s the answer on their top pair, even though his career has told us he’s not quite at that level.
15. Anton Khudobin — Vancouver Canucks — 2 years, $8MM — Perhaps no player helped their free agent stock in the 2020 postseason more than Khudobin. The 34-year-old marched the Stars through the playoffs, making more appearances and facing more shots than any other goalie, while picking up 14 wins. It not only capped off the best season of his career but showed that Khudobin has officially advanced beyond the “backup” label. While he has never played more than 41 games in an NHL season, Khudobin has established himself as a player who can be a “1B” and carry the load if need be. With numbers that have only improved as he has gotten older, Khudobin shows no signs of slowing down and combines veteran leadership with dependable play, making him an ideal candidate to pair with a young starter or to bolster a top contender.
(Re-signed with Dallas, 3 years, $10MM)
16. Erik Haula — New York Rangers — 3 years, $11.25MM — There are more talented players rated lower than Haula but he is the best true center available on the open market, a position that always has more demand than supply which works in his favor. While injuries limited him to just 24 points in 48 games in 2019-20, he’s only two years removed from a 55-point showing with Vegas. He may have some difficulty marketing himself as a second-line center but even as a third option, there should be considerable interest.
17. Kevin Shattenkirk — Dallas Stars — 3 years, $10.5MM — Sometimes when a player is bought out of an expensive contract, it means their career is over and they can just collect their yearly paychecks while starting a new chapter in life. Sometimes, apparently, it means you sign a one-year prove-it deal with the eventual Stanley Cup champions and throw yourself back in the ring as a prime free agent. Shattenkirk will earn $1.43MM from the Rangers in each of the next three years regardless of the contract he signs this offseason after the Lightning showed the league exactly how to maximize his skills. Shattenkirk can’t be a top-pairing defenseman and likely shouldn’t even be logging regular even-strength ice time in the top-four. Instead, he is an incredibly effective third-pairing and powerplay assassin that can help any team when put in the right situation. The Lightning quite simply wouldn’t have won the Stanley Cup without his contributions, which included two game-winning goals and 13 points in 25 games.
(Signed with Anaheim, 3 years, $11.7MM)
18. Craig Smith — Florida Panthers — 3 years, $11MM — Maybe it’s the name? Smith has never really received the credit he deserves as one of the most consistent parts of the Nashville attack, logging five seasons of 20+ goals since the start of 2013-14. He’s not a center anymore—so don’t think he can fill that role just because he once did—but given the fact that his goal total only dropped to 18 in a shortened season that saw him average only 13:25 a night, there may be a real bargain to be had here. Smith is a contributor on the powerplay even if it doesn’t run through him and is still skilled enough to hang in a team’s top-six. He may not be the flashiest player to go after this offseason, but he could be one of the best signings if he can be had on a reasonable deal.
(Signed with Boston, 3 years, $9.3MM)
19. Erik Gustafsson — Boston Bruins — 3 years, $10.5MM –Only a year removed from a 60-point season, this ranking may seem a bit low on the surface. However, he’s coming off a more modest 29-point year and is probably a more realistic expectation of his offensive upside moving forward. Nonetheless, he can help run a power play and can hold his own at five-on-five. Teams that don’t want to shell out a rich contract to upgrade the firepower on their back end (and there will be quite a few of those) will certainly have interest in Gustafsson.
(Signed with Philadelphia, 1 year, $3MM)
20. Vladislav Namestnikov — Detroit Red Wings — 2 years, $7.5MM —Namestnikov is the definition of versatility. The veteran forward can play all three forward positions, is an asset on the penalty kill and power play, and can be an effective top-six forward for a rebuilding team or a capable bottom-six forward for a contender. He proved all of this in his time with the Ottawa Senators and Colorado Avalanche this past season, while shaking off the inconsistencies he showed with the New York Rangers. A 30-40 point player and top unit penalty killer, Namestnikov is already one of the best two-way forwards in the entire free agent class and at 27 still has room to improve. Namestnikov has drawn his fair share of criticism over the years, but he has the tools to help just about any team in the NHL.
(Signed with Detroit, 2 years, $4MM)
21. Corey Crawford — Edmonton Oilers — 1 year, $3.5MM + $1.0MM performance bonus — It’s hard to imagine Crawford in a different sweater, but that’s what we’re headed for as the Blackhawks decided not to bring their franchise goaltender back. It’s understandable given Crawford will turn 36 before the next season begins, but it still feels wrong to project a contract somewhere else for the lifetime Chicago netminder. Crawford was just 12 games away from 500 regular season appearances with the Blackhawks and ranks 80th on the all-time games played list. He may not be a starting option (even if he thinks he is) but as a backup or tandem goaltender you could certainly find far worse.
(Signed with New Jersey, 3 years, $11.7MM)
22. Alex Galchenyuk — Buffalo Sabres — 1 year, $2.75MM — In seasons which Galchenyuk has averaged approximately 16 minutes of ice time per game or more, his 82-game pace has exceeded 20 goals and 50 points. When he has not been given a consistent scoring role, including the past two seasons, his scoring rate has fallen off considerably. It hasn’t helped that Galchenyuk has played on four teams over the past three years. The 26-year-old is one of the youngest UFA’s in the class who has considerable NHL experience and was once a formidable, up-and-coming scorer. Somewhere down the line, teams lost trust in Galchenyuk and his play has reflected this lack of opportunity and confidence. He needs someone to make a leap of faith. A rebuilding team willing to hand over a multi-year contract, a top-six role and power play spot to Galchenyuk could reap major benefits. A contender seeking bottom-six depth and a multi-faceted role player should look elsewhere.
(Signed with Ottawa, 1 year, $1.05MM)
23. Thomas Greiss — New Jersey Devils — 2 years, $5.5MM — Talk about a beneficiary of Barry Trotz‘ arrival in New York. Greiss posted an .892 save percentage in 2017-18 and looked like he might be on his way out of the league before the Islanders made a head coaching change, but is now a recent Jennings winner and heads into free agency as a legitimate tandem option. Greiss put up a .921 save percentage in the Trotz era and could be in line to get a hefty contract this offseason. The problem is it won’t be with New York, who still have Semyon Varlamov and have welcomed Ilya Sorokin into the net, making Griess an incredibly risky proposition. Remember, he only had a .912 save percentage in the years before Trotz (and Mitch Korn, one of the league’s best goaltending coaches), and will turn 35 in January.
(Signed with Detroit, 2 years, $7.2MM)
24. Carl Soderberg — San Jose Sharks — 1 year, $3MM — Soderberg has quietly been a consistently reliable middle-six forward for his entire NHL career. After coming over from Sweden in 2013, Soderberg has been counted on for 40-50 points almost every single season with three different teams. Even with Soderberg turning 35 just a few days into free agency, he is still a safe bet for decent production perhaps even over a multi-year deal. Soderberg has also been improving defensively over the past few seasons and should slot in nicely as a third-line center for a number of teams.
25. Tyler Ennis — Edmonton Oilers — 2 years, $2.8MM — Who needs size? Not Ennis, who has turned a 5’9″ frame into 38 goals over the last two seasons even while playing limited minutes. He’s the kind of player who never disappoints, taking full advantage of any opportunity given to him, but also never receives those prime opportunities. Coming off consecutive one-year contracts that totaled just $1.45MM, you can bet that Ennis will be looking for a bit of a raise this offseason, but after breaking his leg in the postseason it’s hard to believe he’ll get it.
(Signed with Edmonton, 1 year, $1MM)
26. Cam Talbot — Minnesota Wild — 2 years, $3MM — After a down season split between the Oilers and Flyers, Talbot returned to form for the Flames in 2019-20 and posted a .919 save percentage in 26 games. That limited role is likely where his value is maximized at this point in his career, and with so many goaltenders ahead of him he may have to settle for a short-term deal. Talbot has been a solid goaltender, but he’s also 33 and struggled the last time he was asked to be the starter.
(Signed with Minnesota, 3 years, $11MM)
27. Pat Maroon — Philadelphia Flyers — 2 years, $5MM — What can you say about Maroon, who now has back-to-back Stanley Cup championships with different teams. He made it clear that he was looking for more than a one-year deal last summer, but ended up having to settle for just that with the Tampa Bay Lightning. An NHL executive may have put it perfectly back then: “he’s a dinosaur, but there’s no one left who knows how to play against a dinosaur.” Even in his on-ice interview after winning the Stanley Cup, Maroon seemed to be pleading with potential teams to finally believe he can be an asset on a multi-year contract. That’ll be his target, but it’s hard to know if he’ll get there in a cap world.
(Re-signed with Tampa Bay, 2 years $1.8MM)
28. Jesper Fast — Edmonton Oilers — 3 years, $7.5MM — The aptly-named winger has been a consistent depth producer for the Rangers over the past five seasons while providing some grit along the way. Fast shouldn’t be expected to be a top-six regular but he’s a good fit on the third line for a lot of teams. While spending on the lower-end role players is likely to drop as a result of the flattened salary cap, he should be one of the exceptions.
(Signed with Carolina, 3 years, $6MM)
29. Ilya Kovalchuk — Montreal Canadiens — 1 year, $1.75MM + $1.25MM performance bonuses — Having had his contract terminated by the Kings and struggling with Washington, Kovalchuk’s value seemingly shouldn’t be too high. On the other hand, his time with Montreal (13 points in 22 games while averaging nearly 19 minutes a game) showed that there may be something left in the tank for the 37-year-old. A bonus-laden contract is doable as long as it’s a one-year pact and whoever gets him will likely go that route.
30. Cody Ceci — New Jersey Devils — 2 years, $5MM — He’s not coming off the strongest of platform years given his reduced role with Toronto but Ceci is still one of the youngest free agents in this UFA class with three seasons of 20 or more points under his belt while being a right-shot defender. His defensive mistakes can be costly at times so signing him carries some risk but he’d still represent a bottom-half upgrade for quite a few teams. After making more than $4MM in each of the last two seasons, he’ll be facing a drop in salary with his next deal.
(Signed with Pittsburgh, 1 year, $1.25MM)
31. Zdeno Chara — Boston Bruins — 1 year, $1.5MM + $1.0MM performance bonuses — What’s left to say about Chara? The future Hall of Famer is still a solid defensive player, even if the offensive and puck possession aspects of his game have fallen off. At 43, he simply needs to be playing less if he is to keep playing at all. If Chara’s ice time was to be reduced considerably, perhaps to a third-pair level of even-strength minutes coupled with a top penalty kill role, he can still be an elite shutdown defender when he’s on the ice. Chara has been willing to take less and less money each year to prolong his career in Boston, making him a bargain if used correctly. Chara is very likely either back in Boston on another one-year, incentive-laden deal or hanging up his skates.
32. Radko Gudas — Calgary Flames — 2 years, $5.5MM — If you’re looking for a defenseman to play big minutes, look elsewhere. If you’re looking for a defenseman to make a major impact in limited minutes, Gudas is your guy. One of the most aggressive blueliners in the NHL, Gudas has racked up huge hit totals over his career despite never playing consistent top-four minutes. In recent seasons, he has also gotten better about avoiding penalties, making his physical play even more valuable – especially if he’s out of the box often enough to have a consistent penalty kill role. Gudas is not just a typical third-pair, stay-at-home defender either, as he possesses 20+ point potential and the skating ability to keep up with play up and down the ice, even if he is most comfortable in his own end. Gudas’ fit with the Washington Capitals didn’t play out as many expected, but he is a candidate to be a sneaky-good signing for the right team in need of defensive depth, energy, and physicality.
(Signed with Florida, 3 years, $7.5MM)
33. Cody Eakin — Pittsburgh Penguins — 2 years, $4.2MM — Is Eakin a 20-goal, 40-point center or not? As one of the most inconsistent performers available this summer, teams will have to take a chance that it’s the former while hopefully paying for the latter. In 2014-15 he scored 19 goals and 40 points and looked like an up-and-comer. Then by 2016-17 he was completely useless, scoring just 12 points. But then two years after that, he was outstanding again for Vegas, only to disappear completely again this season. What is Eakin? The center market is thin, but it’s hard to commit to him at this point.
(Signed with Buffalo, 2 years, $4.5MM)
34. Corey Perry — Calgary Flames — 1 year, $1.75MM + $1.0MM performance bonuses — In one year, Perry went from expensive and injury-prone afterthought with the Anaheim Ducks to playoff hero for the Dallas Stars. He may not have any MVP offense left in the tank, but Perry proved this season that he can still be an effective forward in the NHL. Playing at a 30-point pace, the hallmarks of Perry’s game still shined through as he won puck battles, threw his weight around, wreaked havoc in front of the net, and generally got under the opponent’s skin. Perry loves that style of play and will continue to give 100% even if he is relegated to a bottom-six role. With that disruptive presence, he will continue to find opportunities to create offense as well. An experienced player who is beloved by his teammates and hated by just about everyone else, Perry is a good locker room presence and still an on-ice threat. As long as he wants a job, he should be able to find one and may even earn a raise off the minimal one-year deal he signed with the Stars.
35. Wayne Simmonds — Toronto Maple Leafs — 1 year, $1.5MM — It’s hard to watch Simmonds fight for another chance as a scrap heap free agent, but that’s kind of what he is at this point. After a terrible showing with the Predators in 2019 he signed a one-year deal to try and prove it was a fluke and there was a lot more hockey in him. Instead, he flamed out in New Jersey with just eight goals in 61 games and then was a complete non-factor in a few games down the stretch for Buffalo. It’s hard to find someone who doesn’t admire the player and respect the force he used to be, but the 32-year-old Simmonds will have to settle for a much lower salary this season if he wants to continue playing hockey. As a powerplay net-front piece he’s still effective, but can you ice him at even-strength?
(Signed with Toronto, 1 year $1.5MM)
36. Kyle Clifford — New York Islanders — 3 years, $4.5MM — The Maple Leafs already offered Clifford a three-year deal worth a little over $1MM per season, showing just how much they valued his leadership over the last few months of the season. The bang-and-crash fourth-liner is going to test free agency because he believes he’s worth more than that, and he’s likely right. Still just 29 and with a Stanley Cup on his resume, he’ll be an interesting depth add for a contender looking for a little more bite.
(Signed with St. Louis, 2 years, $2MM)
37. Mark Borowiecki — Nashville Predators — 2 years, $1.8MM — The Senators publicly declared that they wanted Borowiecki to be in Ottawa for the rest of his career, but apparently he didn’t seem to agree (or at least didn’t like the salary that came with it). He’ll hit unrestricted free agency as a depth defenseman, but one that is beloved by his teammates and the community he served (and protected) for years. In terms of character adds, there are few better options. In terms of defensemen, he won’t be lining up on the powerplay anytime soon.
(Signed with Nashville, 2 years $4MM)
38. Justin Schultz — Toronto Maple Leafs — 1 year, $1.6MM — At the other end of the offensive spectrum is Schultz, who just a few years ago put up 51 points and received votes for the Norris. The Penguins are ready to move on after a few disappointing campaigns, but perhaps Schultz can experience a similar resurgence to the one Shattenkirk just went through if put in the right situation.
(Signed with Washington, 2 years, $8MM)
39. Matt Martin — New York Rangers — 2 years, $3.2MM — While he isn’t likely to land a similar-sized contract as he did in his first trip through free agency (four years, $10MM), there are still enough teams that will be willing to pay for grit, especially a player that is among the most physical in the league. Adding five playoff goals for the Islanders certainly helps his value as well. He’s a fourth-line player at a time where those players are getting squeezed out but his market should still be strong.
40. Derick Brassard — Columbus Blue Jackets — 2 years, $3.5MM — Brassard took a one-year “show me” deal last off-season and did well for himself, returning to form with 32 points in 66 games even playing minimal minutes. He also embraced the defensive nature of his bottom-six role, posting strong faceoff numbers and was on pace for a career-high in hits. In a normal off-season, he likely would have done enough to earn a multi-year deal. However, it’s hard to project how teams might feel about the 33-year-old given the limited money available. Brassard seems like a safe bet to be a reliable third-line center for several years still to come, but don’t be surprised if he is forced to again prove that 30+ points and effective defense is the norm and not the exception.
41. Joe Thornton — Toronto Maple Leafs — 1 year, $700K + $2MM in performance bonuses — Have the wheels finally fallen off for Thornton? The 41-year-old center has obviously been in decline for some time, but 2019-20 resulted in a major drop-off in production. After 22 straight seasons of scoring at better than a half-point-per-game pace (including many seasons over a point-per-game and some even over a point and a half), Thornton’s production fell from .70 ppg to .44 ppg this year. His face-off percentage also dipped below 50% for the first time in his career and he posted a career-low plus/minus. Thornton’s ice time was slashed and his once-untouchable powerplay role was reduced. This would all seem to indicate that Thornton’s Hall of Fame career is coming to an end. Yet, the Sharks refused to deal him at the deadline and are reportedly hoping to bring him back. Is Thornton up for another year? Is he willing to take another salary cut? And is San Jose the only team in the running, especially after Thornton went public with his frustration over not being given a shot at the Stanley Cup this year? There are more questions than answers right now when it comes to the future of one of the best players of the 21st century.
(Signed with Toronto, 1 year, $700K)
42. Mattias Janmark — Carolina Hurricanes — 1 year, $2.1MM — At 27 years old with his injury issues behind him and coming off a strong postseason for the Western Conference champs, why is there so little love for Janmark? Unfortunately, upside and versatility are key elements of an attractive free agent and he lacks much of either. Janmark is a one-dimensional scoring winger. Moved off the center position by the Stars after struggling at the dot and in the middle of the ice, Janmark never really embraced the two-way responsibilities of a centerman anyhow. He does not play physically, does not possess defensive tools, and can often be a liability in his own end. He also doesn’t show dominant offensive ability either. Through four full NHL seasons, the list of potential outcomes has been narrow; prorated to an 82-game pace, he was finished with expected point totals of 33, 34, 25, and 28. Janmark simply is what he is – a third-line winger who can be counted on for 25-35 points and a second unit powerplay role. There will certainly be a team or two that could use that exact type of player, but the market will not be overwhelming for Janmark.
(Signed with Chicago, 1 year, $2.25MM)
43. Mikko Koivu — Florida Panthers — 1 year, $1MM + $1MM performance bonuses — A legend in Minnesota will hit the open market for the first time without much upside left in his legs. Set to turn 38 during next season he’s still an effective penalty killer, but offers almost nothing at the offensive end of the rink. Koivu was getting powerplay time in Minnesota this season because of his tenure, not because of his play and he’ll have to embrace a reduced role if he wants to continue playing. As a bottom-six center that is asked to check and PK? He might be effective. But there’s no way a team commits to more than one year at his age.
(Signed with Columbus, 1 year, $1.5MM)
44. Zach Bogosian — New York Rangers — 2 years, $4MM — Bogosian has never been consistently healthy in his 12-year NHL career, playing more than 65 games just twice versus three seasons of 33 games or less. After signing with Tampa Bay midway through the season, Bogosian stayed healthy through the “end” of the regular season and the postseason, looking like a natural fit and in a talented Lightning defense corps. However, anyone signing him has to know that a full season contribution is likely a longshot, especially now that he is on the wrong side of 30. Bogosian was also prone to turnovers in the playoffs and his days as a puck-mover might be over. For a team that has depth but needs a veteran presence, a penalty killer, and some snarl, Bogosian is a great fit. He just helped one contender win a Stanley Cup (in his first playoff experience) and could be looking to do so again.
(Signed with Toronto, 1 year, $1MM)
45. Conor Sheary — Washington Capitals — 1 year, $1.3MM — When Buffalo acquired Sheary two years ago, they hoped they were getting the player who recorded 53 points in his first full season in Pittsburgh. Instead, they got the player who recorded 30 points in his second.. That seems to be the more accurate projection for what Sheary can bring, though his return to Pittsburgh this season did elevate his scoring pace and implies that he could still be capable of improved production. Sheary is an undersized but hardworking winger who plays a solid possession game and has a nose for the net. He has always played his best when surrounded by elite talent but isn’t incapable of contributing in a bottom-six role. With that said, a team can really maximize the potential bargain of an inexpensive Sheary contract by giving him talented linemates and a powerplay role. In that scenario, a return to 40+ point production may be in reach.
46. Andy Greene — New Jersey Devils — 1 year, $1MM + $750K performance bonuses — The Islanders knew what they were doing when they traded for Greene late this season. By reducing the veteran’s minutes and keeping him rested, they got the most out of him. That meant great shot-blocking and defensive positioning, but also some clutch offense in the postseason that most people did not expect. The 37-year-old has lost a lot of speed to his game and cannot be relied upon for a top-four role any longer. However, as a stay-at-home specialist who surprises with offense from time to time, Greene could still excel on a bottom pair or as a spot starter. The long-time Devil is likely limited to the tri-state area for what could be his final contract, but that still leaves a number of teams who could use his services.
47. Derek Forbort — Washington Capitals — 1 year, $1.3MM — When he was healthy with the Kings, he held his own as a second-pairing defenseman. Forbort missed most of last season with back trouble and wasn’t able to play as significant of a role as he had before so there is some risk involved but at the same time, there is some upside now that he’ll have a full healthy offseason under his belt. He shouldn’t cost a lot considering how much time he missed which makes him a target for a cap-strapped team that’s looking for a veteran that can move up in a pinch.
(Signed with Winnipeg, 1 year, 1MM)
48. Derek Grant — Chicago Blackhawks — 1 year, $2MM — Ask the Philadelphia coaching staff how they felt about Grant after he came over from Anaheim and they’ll describe a versatile player that has more skill around the net than some give him credit for. He’s big, he wins draws and he can play in different situations, but that doesn’t mean there will be a huge market for him this offseason. Instead, he’ll need a team with a certain need to fill in their bottom-six and on the penalty kill.
(Signed with Anaheim, 3 years, $4.5MM)
49. Jimmy Vesey — Los Angeles Kings — 1 year, $1.5MM — How long ago was the summer of Vesey? Every team seemed to be chasing the college free agent after he told Buffalo to leave him alone, but he never did turn into the top-six forward some hoped for. He does still have 59 goals over his four-year career, but there won’t be a bidding war this time around. Vesey is one of the youngest players in free agency and won’t turn 28 until next May, so if you’re looking for a depth scoring option that isn’t already in decline, maybe he’s the bargain you’re after.
(Signed with Toronto, 1 year, $900K)
50. Dmitry Kulikov — New York Rangers — 2 years, $4.5MM — Kulikov didn’t exactly live up to the three-year, $13MM contract he signed as a free agent in 2017, but when the Winnipeg defensive depth was stripped down to the bone this season they were sure glad they still had him. A regular in the league for the last decade, Kulikov ramped his ice time back up this year when the Jets lost so many veterans and ended up averaging more than 20 minutes a night in his 51 appearances. He’s still only 29 for a few more weeks and should probably be higher on the list if it weren’t for a complete lack of offensive production. In his last 217 regular season games—more than 4,000 minutes of ice time—Kulikov has only produced 32 points. He won’t kill you, but he sure won’t take you to the next level either.
(Signed with New Jersey, 1 year, $1.15MM)