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Metropolitan Storylines: New York Rangers

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While the stretch run is officially over with the NHL’s declaration that the play-in games won’t be part of the regular season, we still have one division left to get to in our Stretch Run Storylines series.  Our focus has been shifted to the Metropolitan Division with an eye on things to watch for in the postseason.  Next up is a look at the New York Rangers.

This season, the Rangers were expected to take a step towards moving out of their rebuild, especially after they added winger Artemi Panarin via the richest AAV handed to a winger in league history and picked up blueliner Jacob Trouba from Winnipeg in a trade.  However, they were struggling through the first half of the season before a midseason recall helped change their fortunes.  Whether or not that recall gets a chance to play in their play-in series against Carolina is among the things to watch for from New York when play resumes.

Zibanejad’s Momentum

Over the final six weeks of the season, who was the top scorer in the NHL?  It wasn’t Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl who was on a tear of his own and may be the Hart Trophy winner.  It wasn’t Panarin who had a career year and finished tied for third in the league in scoring.  Instead, it was his linemate in center Mika Zibanejad.  Over his last 21 games from February 1st to the suspension of the schedule, he had 22 goals and 11 assists.  Yes, better than a goal per game pace.  (He also led in points per game if you want to look at the stat that way to balance out the differences in games played.)

Zibanejad and Panarin were dominant for large parts of what amounted to the stretch run.  While Panarin played at that level for basically most of the year, Zibanejad’s top gear was something that he hadn’t shown with any sort of regularity in the past.  While the Rangers are a deep enough team offensively to withstand Zibanejad reverting closer to his normal form (which is still a strong two-way pivot), they’re much more dangerous with that duo lighting it up.  In a short series as the play-in round is, that could make or break New York’s fortunes.

Who Starts?

For the first half of the season, New York’s goaltending tandem was Henrik Lundqvist and Alexandar Georgiev.  On paper, it wasn’t a bad duo – a proven veteran and a young goalie that has shown flashes of upside in his early career.  That didn’t translate to much in the way of success, however, which necessitated the recall of Igor Shesterkin from AHL Hartford.  He made an immediate impact and ran with the number one job until the pandemic hit three months ago.

Now, David Quinn has a decision to make on who to start against Carolina.  On the surface, Shesterkin would make sense as he had the hot hand before but more than three months have passed since then and it’ll be another month before games resume.  He’s still relatively untested in North America with only a dozen NHL games under his belt so putting him into a must-win series does carry some risk.

On the other hand, the other options carry some risk as well.  Lundqvist came into this season having posted the worst numbers of his career in 2018-19.  His numbers were slightly worse this year and he wound up as the third-string option frequently once Shesterkin was recalled.  The rest may help the 38-year-old in terms of being rested and ready to play though and he has a very strong track record of success in the postseason.  There are also questions about whether there’s a spot for him next season with the two younger goalies likely to be around so giving Lundqvist the first shot would be a nice nod to a well-respected franchise mainstay.  But is there room for sentimentality in a short series?

As for Georgiev, he was consistently inconsistent while posting a dip in his save percentage from last season.  Having said that, he stole some games for the Rangers and if he’s on, he could be the difference in this series.  On the flip side, the risk factor of playing Georgiev is high since if he’s not at the top of his game, he struggles.

There is no simple answer here as all have arguments for and against playing them.  As a result, Quinn will certainly be keeping a close tab on his three netminders during training camp.  With a limited exhibition schedule, how each performs in practice may very well play a role in determining who starts against the Hurricanes.

RFA Watch

Salary cap space was an issue for the Rangers heading into the year as they more or less forced winger Brendan Lemieux and defenseman Anthony DeAngelo into taking cheap one-year deals.  That has worked out quite well for DeAngelo who had a career year offensively with 15 goals and 38 assists in 68 games.  A strong showing in the postseason will only his bolster his arbitration case which he is now eligible for.

Then there’s Ryan Strome.  The center also had a career season with 18 goals and 41 helpers in 70 contests and will be a restricted free agent with arbitration eligibility.  He went into the season viewed as a possible non-tender candidate because of his required $3.2MM qualifying offer.  He has outperformed that rate but his future with the team still feels a little bit tenuous but a good performance here could help solidify his fate in New York.

For perspective, the Rangers have more than $67MM committed to 15 players for next season with DeAngelo, Strome, Georgiev and Lemieux all in need of new contracts.  With the expectation that next year’s Upper Limit will be at or around the current $81.5MM mark, it will be a tight squeeze to keep all of them, fill out the rest of the roster, and remain under that threshold.  That means there may a bit more at stake for those players in this postseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2000 Expansion Draft Retrospective: How Columbus And Minnesota Fared (Poorly) Versus Vegas

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Twenty years ago yesterday, the Columbus Blue Jackets and Minnesota Wild were taking their first official steps as NHL teams, engaging in the 2000 NHL Expansion Draft. Yet the additions of the 29th and 30th NHL teams goes down as an utterly forgettable event in the annals of NHL history, given just how poor the results were. Fast-forward 17 years and the NHL finally adds team No. 31, the Vegas Golden Knights. Recency bias aside, the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft and especially the season that followed will have a firm foothold on their place in league history. The vast differences between these two drafts, both in format and outside factors, help to explain why the infant Golden Knights already seem to be more established in year three than the Blue Jackets and Wild, facing down their twentieth seasons in 2020-21.

Entry Fee

Columbus and Minnesota: $80,000,000
Vegas: $500,000,000

Like most things in pro sports, this story starts with money. The Blue Jackets and Wild paid just $80MM in 2000 to enter the NHL, not exactly a premium price even 20 years ago. As a result, their introduction to the league was never intended to be smooth. The odds were stacked against them in their inaugural seasons and beyond as they had to fight hard for their place in the league. The Knights on the other hand paid over six times that amount and the 2021 Seattle expansion team is set to pay even more, a record $650MM. With that comes more cushy conditions upon entry, allowing for immediate success to be more realistic.

Recent Expansion

Columbus and Minnesota: Nashville Predators (1998), Atlanta Thrashers (1999)
Vegas: None

The Blue Jackets and Wild also entered the league during a frenzy of expansion. The NHL added nine teams between 1990 and 2000 and Columbus and Minnesota were the unfortunate pair to bring up the rear. Talent was spread thinner than it ever had been before and Nashville and Atlanta, added in the previous two years, were completely exempt from the Expansion Draft. The expansion team thus drafted 26-man rosters. In contrast, when Vegas entered the league the NHL had not seen expansion in the better part of two decades. No one was exempt and talent had been replenished across the league, with Vegan able to pick from each of the 30 teams. Talent level continues to not be a concern approaching the 2021 Expansion Draft, in which Seattle will also have 30 teams to choose from other than Vegas, who also won’t receive a share of their entry fee.

Protection Schemes

Columbus and Minnesota: Nine forwards, five defensemen, and one goalie or seven forwards, three defensemen, and two goalies
Vegas: Seven forwards, three defensemen, and one goalie or eight skaters and a goalie

Nine forwards, five defenseman, and a goalie?! It’s no wonder that most people can’t remember the players selected by the Wild or Blue Jackets. They were either fourth-liners, bottom-pair defensemen, or minor leaguers. On top of that, the team were also competing with one another for these scraps. The secondary option in 2000 became the primary option for Vegas in 2017 minus a second goalie. This guaranteed that nearly every team would expose a top-nine forward, a top-four defenseman, and an experienced goalie.

Results

Columbus: G – Frederic Chabot, Dwayne Roloson, Rick Tabaracci; D – Radim Bicanek, Jonas Junkka, Lyle Odelein, Jamie Pushor, Tommi Rajamaki, Bert Robertsson, Mathieu Schneider, Mattias Timander; F – Kevyn Adams, Kevin Dineen, Dallas Drake, Ted Drury, Bruce Gardiner, Steve Heinze, Robert Kron, Sergei Luchinkin, Barrie Moore, Geoff Sanderson, Turner Stevenson, Martin Streit, Dmitri Subbotin, Jeff Williams, Tyler Wright

Minnesota: G – Zac Bierk, Jamie McLennan, Chris Terreri, Mike Vernon; D – Artem Anisimov, Chris Armstrong, Ladislav Benysek, Ian Herbers, Filip Kuba, Curtis Leschyshyn, Sean O’Donnell, Oleg Orekhovsky; F – Michal Bros, Jeff Daw, Jim Dowd, Darby Hendrickson, Joe Juneau, Sergei Krivokrasov, Darryl Laplante, Steve McKenna, Jeff Nielsen, Stefan Nilsson, Jeff Odgers, Scott Pellerin, Stacy Roest, Cam Stewart

Vegas: G – Jean-Francois Berube, Marc-Andre Fleury, Calvin Pickard; D – Alexei Emelin, Deryk Engelland, Jason Garrison, Brayden McNabb, Jon Merrill, Marc Methot, Colin Miller, Griffin Reinhart, Luca Sbisa, David Schlemko, Nate Schmidt, Clayton Stoner, Trevor van Riemsdyk; F – Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Connor Brickley, William Carrier, Cody Eakin, Erik Haula, William Karlsson, Brendan Leipsic, Oscar Lindberg, Jonathan Marchessault, James Neal, Tomas Nosek, David Perron, Teemu Pulkkinen, Chris Thorburn

Kinda one-sided isn’t it? Sean O’Donnell, Filip Kuba, and Darby Hendrickson were some of the best players available to Columbus and Minnesota, while the vast majority of Vegas’ roster was at the very least as accomplished as that trio when they were selected. No one taken in the 2000 Draft can even be remotely compared to established players in their prime like Neal, Perron, and Fleury, young scoring forwards like Marchessault and Karlsson, or up-and-coming defensemen like Schmidt and Miller. The Knights’ entire draft roster also had NHL experience or earned it in their first two seasons, while a number of Blue Jacket and Wild picks never even saw the light of day.or

Draftees To Play With Team

Columbus and Minnesota: 11 apiece
Vegas: 19

To make matters worse, some of the most well-known players selected by the Blue Jackets and Wild – Mathieu Schneider, Mike Vernon, Dallas Drake – never played a game for the franchise. This was by design, as the teams opted to take the select players specifically to allow them to walk as free agents and recoup the compensatory picks, but it sill added to the overwhelming lack of player value selected in 2000. In 2017, the Golden Knights managed to retain more than half of a 30-man roster that was far too large to ever retain completely. In fact, the only player who did not join Vegas in their inaugural season or was not traded away was goalie JF Berube.

First Playoff Appearance

Columbus: 2009
Minnesota: 2003
Vegas: 2018

So how did these drastically uneven expansion results play out? The Wild made their first playoff appearance in their third season with some holdovers from the draft and even made it to the Western Conference Final. However, they finished last in the Northwest Division in the two seasons prior and subsequent to this underdog run. The Blue Jackets did not make the playoffs for the first time until 2009, nearly a decade into their existence. By then, there was no trace of their bleak expansion draft roster. The franchise has just six playoff series appearances in their history, with their first win coming just last season. Vegas on the other hand turned the expansion trope on its head with an incredible run in 2018, fueled almost entirely by draft selections. The team then qualified for the playoffs again last season and are a top-four seed in the West in the upcoming expanded postseason.

First Stanley Cup Final Appearance

Columbus and Minnesota: None
Vegas: 2018

The Golden Knights made it as far as any team can go without winning the Stanley Cup in their very first season. It was unheard of success for an expansion team in any sport and the structure and surrounding of the 2017 Expansion Draft played a major role. The Blue Jackets and Wild, limited for years by their own expansion restrictions, have never made the Stanley Cup Final and entering their twentieth season in 2020-21 don’t look particularly likely to do so next year either. These is a very strong likelihood that Vegas returns to the Final and possibly wins a Stanley Cup before Columbus or Minnesota and Seattle may very well share those same odds.

Twenty years later, the Blue Jackets and Wild are still struggling to establish themselves as top teams in the NHL and their struggles can be traced all the way back to the 2000 Expansion Draft. So while the anniversary can be celebrated for the formal additions of the franchises to the NHL – bringing pro hockey back to Minnesota and spreading the game to a market that has wholly embraced it in Columbus – it should also be remembered as the poorly-constructed entry device that limited these teams from the get go. The 2000 Expansion Draft will never be remembered for any individual players that were selected, but instead the complete lack of impact players selected and the factors that contributed to that result.

One Trade The Blue Jackets Would Like To Have Back

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June 23rd, 2011 is a day that fans of the Blue Jackets would like to forget.  They made a big splash at the draft that day, acquiring center Jeff Carter from Philadelphia.  He was supposed to be one of the centerpieces of their forward group but it didn’t work out like that at all.

Before even looking at what they gave up to get him, let’s look at Carter’s tenure with Columbus.  It lasted all of 39 games where he picked up 11 goals and 10 assists, numbers that were considerably down from his time with the Flyers.

Some may want to attribute that to the fact that he simply didn’t want to be there.  Philadelphia dealt Carter before his trade protection kicked in and he didn’t hide the fact that he wasn’t happy about it.

So, what did the Blue Jackets give up for those 39 unhappy games?  A young winger and two draft picks.  That doesn’t sound terrible until you look at who those players wound up being.

The young winger was Jakub Voracek who was coming off his entry-level deal and had already established himself as a capable top-six forward.  The seventh overall pick in 2007 took his game to another level in Philadelphia as expected and has spent a large portion of his time since then as a fixture on their front line.

One of the two draft picks was the eighth overall selection in 2011.  That was used on center Sean Couturier.  While it took some time for the offensive side of his game to blossom, he has been an effective defensive pivot throughout his career.  Heading into this season, he had back-to-back 76-point seasons and was on pace for another 70-point year before the pandemic hit.  Couple that with his defensive skill set and you have a legitimate number one center which is what Columbus was trying to get when they added Carter.  The other draft pick, a third-round selection, was used on Nick Cousins who has carved out a decent career thus far even though he has bounced around over the last few years.

(It wasn’t all good news for Philadelphia though.  This move, coupled with the swap of Mike Richards to Los Angeles, gave them enough cap savings to pave the way for them to sign Ilya Bryzgalov to a nine-year contract.  He was bought out two years later and the Flyers are now paying him through the 2026-27 season to not play for them.)

Needless to say, that initial trade didn’t work out very well for Columbus at all.  Unfortunately, this wound up being somewhat of a double whammy situation as the deal that saw him leave the Blue Jackets wasn’t much better.  Unfortunately, that’s what happens when you have a disgruntled and underachieving player who still had 10 years left on a now-illegal contract with a cap hit of over $5.27MM per season.

Carter wound up being moved to the Kings with Columbus receiving defenseman Jack Johnson and a first-round pick in return, a far cry from what they gave up to get him only eight months earlier.

While Johnson has taken a lot of heat for his current contract with Pittsburgh, he was a quality defender with the Blue Jackets, logging more than 23 minutes a night over parts of seven seasons with them.  However, while he was trending toward being a two-way threat in Los Angeles, that part of his game rarely resurfaced in Columbus as he was more of a physical, stay-at-home defender.  The upside was there but he didn’t live up to it.

The same can be said for who they selected with the 2013 first-round pick which turned out to be Marko Dano. He was holding down a regular spot in the KHL in his draft-eligible season which is no small feat but his offensive game never really materialized and instead, he has spent the bulk of his six full years in North America in the minors.  They salvaged a bit of value by including him as part of the Brandon Saad–Artemi Panarin swap but that’s still not a great return on a first-round selection.  As it turns out, Dano is now actually back with Columbus and could be among their recalls for their play-in series against Toronto after spending most of the year with AHL Cleveland.

Carter, meanwhile, went on to have a bit of a resurgence with the Kings, posting at least 50 points in each of his first four full seasons after the trade.  He has slowed down since then though as injuries have limited him to just 82 points combined in the last three years.  The 35-year-old still has two years left on his current contract.

In acquiring Carter, then-GM Scott Howson was hoping to pair a star center with their star winger in Rick Nash.  Instead, they wound up with a trade tree to forget.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

What Detroit Wasn’t The Worst At In 2019-20

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By now, everyone knows that the Detroit Red Wings were a bad team in 2019-20. The team finished last in the NHL with a 17-49-5 record. Their 39 points was 23 points less than the Ottawa Senators in 30th place and a whopping 61 points behind the President’s Trophy-winning Boston Bruins. Their .275 points percentage was historically bad, eighth-worst in the modern era and the very worst if expansions teams are removed.

But just how pervasive was Detroit’s failure this season? The Red Wings finished last in almost every meaningful statistic. The team was the worst at both scoring and preventing goals in 2019-20. Their meager 2.0 goals per game was more than half a goal behind the 30th-ranked Los Angeles Kings. They gave up 3.73 goals per game, nearly two more goals than they scored and .38 GAA behind the Ottawa Senators in 30th. In contrast, .38 more than the Senators’ goals against would be a sub-3.0 GAA and in the top half of the league. Detroit finished last in even strength, power play, and shorthanded goals against. The Red Wings also struggled on the penalty kill, finishing in last place with a 74.3% rating.

Taking an even deeper look, the team was a disaster at creating offense. Their 27.1 shots per game was last in the league, more than two shots behind the Buffalo Sabres in 30th. If the Sabres improved by the same amount, they would be among the top half of the league. Detroit also finished last in takeaways with just 4.33 per game.

The big question is: what wasn’t Detroit the worst at in 2019-20. The Red Wings were by no means successful in the following three key statistics, but they did not finish last:

Power Play

The Red Wings should thank the Ottawa Senators and Anaheim Ducks that they can say their team wasn’t the very worst this year in a major category like power play. The difference is marginal, but Detroit’s 14.9% was .02 higher than the Ducks and .07 higher than the Sens. The Red Wings were also just behind the Chicago Blackhawks in 28th at 15.2%. Success rates start to rise significantly beyond those bottom four all the way to the Edmonton Oilers, who were more than twice as successful with the man advantage as Detroit, Anaheim, and Ottawa.

Unfortunately, when you combine the Red Wing’s low power play success rate with their league-high 13 shorthanded goals against, the team actually had a league-worst 8.8% net power play.

Shots Against

At the end of the day, Detroit had the worst goals against in the league, but they did their part not to leave their goalies out to dry entirely. The team finished 27th in shots against per game with 32.8. The Vancouver Canucks, Ottawa Senators, New York Rangers, and Chicago Blackhawks all finished below the Red Wings, with the Blackhawks bringing up the rear allowing more than two more shots per game. Detroit was actually closer to a top-ten mark in shots against per game that they were Chicago in last.

Giveaways

While bad teams and giveaways seem to go hand-in-hand, and often do, the Red Wings did not cough up the puck the most in the NHL. That honor belongs to the New York Islanders, with the New York Rangers coming in second-to-last. Detroit tied the Montreal Canadiens with 11.23 giveaways per game. This was only marginally better than the Rangers, but nearly two giveaways less than the Islanders’ ugly mark.

Yet, due to their measly 4.33 takeaways per game, Detroit still finished last net turnovers with -6.09 per game. They may not be the worst team in giveaways, but they were hardly winners in the turnover battle.

Face-offs

Finally, a noteworthy statistic that Detroit was not worst or among the worst at this season. The Red Wings’ 49.5% face-off rate was still below average by definition, but it was just short of a middling mark and good enough for 20th in the league. The team was only about 1% better than all but three of the teams below them, but the Red Wings will be happy not to be a part of that bottom group.

The 2019-20 Detroit Red Wings: “Historically bad, but okay at face-offs”.

Expert Consensus: What To Expect In Round One Of The 2020 NHL Draft

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While the actual date of the 2020 NHL Entry Draft is still unknown and at the very least still several months away, there is no new data for teams and draft analysts to gather on the draft class. So while the draft may seem like a long ways off, now is as good a time as any to begin dissecting the possibilities. Many draft experts agree, as several have already done their final dive into this class of prospects and released their final draft rankings. While there are a number of draft experts and services out there, here is a look at the upcoming first round based on the consensus of the most recent rankings from some of the most well-known draft analysts out there: Scott Wheeler and Corey Pronman of The Athletic (subscription required), Craig Button and Bob McKenzie of TSN, Ryan Kennedy of The Hockey News, Steve Kournianos of The Draft Analyst, Chris Peters of ESPN (subscription required), and Sam Cosentino of Sportsnet:

Alexis Lafreniere Will Go No. 1

No surprise, right? Alexis Lafreniere won the battle for the first overall spot a while ago and it is hard to find anyone who still disagrees. All eight experts ranked Lafreniere at No. 1 and few bothered to even argue the merits of the selection. Lafreniere has a chance to be a generational player given his offensive skill and skating ability. Regardless of who wins Friday’s lottery, they will be selecting the Rimouski superstar with the top pick.

Quinton Byfield Will Go No. 2

Of the eight experts, all but one ranked big center Quinton Byfield as the second overall pick. If that isn’t enough, just look at his numbers, including his height and weight, and you’ll get the idea why he is a can’t-miss prospect. Byfield is the type of top-line pivot that every team needs and, like Lafreniere at No. 1, no team will pass him up regardless of their organizational depth. The Sudbury centerman is the total package and his well-roundness alone will win him this spot.

Tim Stutzle Will Probably Go No. 3

Six of eight experts predict that German sensation Tim Stutzle will be taken third overall, with a seventh ranking him second. Stutzle has come on strong this season and shaken off any doubters with his elite speed and creativity. Thrown in his achievement against men in the DEL and against his peers at the World Juniors and you have a player that has shown that he can rise to the occasion once he arrives in the NHL. If the team picking third has a drastic need for defense or has fallen in love with one of the other consensus top-ten forwards, maybe Stutzle slips past third. However, he is right on the line of being too good to pass up like Lafreniere and Byfield.

Jamie Drysdale Will Be The First Defenseman Selected

Jamie Drysdale began the draft cycle as the top-rated defenseman and he will end it that way as well. All eight experts have the Drysdale as their top-ranked defender, anywhere from No. 4 to No. 9. The draft order will very likely determine where exactly Drysdale falls. However, given his ability and an otherwise weak defense class, especially on the right side, it is hard to imagine him falling outside the top five, as there will be teams looking to trade up if those pick-holders are not interested. The slick, pay-making blue liner out or Erie is a special player with the puck on his stick, but his defensive ability is also worthy of a top selection.

Another Goalie Will Go Early

Last year, the Florida Panthers bucked the trend of goaltenders rarely being taken early in the first round when they selected Spencer Knight at No. 13 overall. Watch for the same thing to happen this year and perhaps even earlier, depending on how the draft order plays out. Russian prodigy Yaroslav Askarov is being regarded even higher than Knight and might have a chance to crack the top ten. All eight experts ranked Askarov in the first half of the first round, but six had him at tenth or earlier. Askarov is truly considered an elite goalie prospect, the likes of which have not been seen in some time, and there will very likely be a team early on who simply can’t resist taking a guaranteed future starter.

A Down Year For The Americans

After a historic American draft class in 2019, the U.S. will very much take a back seat in the first round in 2020. Only one American, USNTDP defenseman Jake Sanderson, was a consensus first-round pick among the experts and none of the eight had more than three Americans slotted in the first round. Even among those few picks there was dissent among the experts, but forwards Brendan Brisson and Thomas Bordeleau look like the most likely names to sneak in.

Forward Depth Will Define The Draft Class

If there is one thing that has been a common refrain about the 2020 draft class, it is the wealth of talented forwards available. A strong sign that this is true is the varied opinions among the experts, with some ranking forwards early in the first round that others think might still be available in the third round. Only 15 forwards were consensus first-round picks among the eight experts. Beyond Lafreniere, Byfield, and Stutzle, there are Swedish standouts Lucas Raymond and Alexander Holtz, CHL stars Marco Rossi, Cole Perfetti, Jack Quinn, Connor Zary, Mavrik Bourque, Seth Jarvis, and Dawson Mercer, Finnish phenom Anton Lundell, Russian prize Rodion Amirov, and NCAA wunderkind Dylan Holloway. Yet, there were 22 other forward prospects who received at least one first-round ranking among the eight experts, not to mention another handful who were consensus second-round picks. There will be an uncommon amount of high-end ability available through at least the first two rounds for those NHL teams with needs up front.

Elite Defense Will Be Hard To Come By

Those teams desperate for help on the blue line will not have the same luck as those in need of forwards. Among the eight experts, only Drysdale and Sanderson were consensus first-round picks and both will be gone in the first half of the first round. Just four defenseman were given first-round grades by the majority of experts – Kaiden Guhle, Braden Schneider, Jeremie Poirier, and Justin Barron – and only Guhle received a top-half ranking by more than one expert. Given the depth of forwards and the inclusion of the goaltender Askarov as a definite first-round pick, it would not be a surprise to see as few as four defensemen selected in the first round this year.

PHR Mailbag: Seattle, Draft, Rangers, Playoff Surprises, Buyouts

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It’s time for another edition of the PHR Mailbag.  Topics in this one include Seattle, draft risers and fallers, the Rangers, playoff surprises, and compliance buyouts.  If your question doesn’t appear here, look for it in last weekend’s mailbag.

BOSSports21: Future question – so 20-21 will be delayed, most likely resulting in a mid-summer 2021 end, thereby pushing the draft/FA back again, and presumably the expansion draft. How do you think this will impact Seattle if the expansion draft isn’t until July or Aug, 2021 and you’re starting that October?

M34: Does Seattle benefit or suffer from the recent world events impact on the NHL?

I don’t think a potentially shortened turnaround from the end of 2020-21 to the start of 2021-22 really affects much in the scheme of things for Seattle.  They first have to pick their team and they’ll have data and scouting from that season (plus this one too) to use to make their information.  That’s not really affected by the timeline.

They might, however, be positively affected by the salary cap crunch.  Vegas was used to offload some bad contracts but it seemed like teams would learn their lesson for this one.  However, the expected flattening of the cap due to the pandemic is simply going to force some teams to have to go through that procedure again and that should be to Seattle’s benefit.

A shorter offseason might ultimately expedite some of those moves (or at least squeeze them into a narrower window) but a lot of these could still be pre-arranged while the playoffs were going on.  They’ll have ample time to prepare so even if their team ultimately gets built in a rather short period of time, they’ll be well-positioned to do so.

Winter in Colorado: Detroit shocked most when they drafted Moritz Seider 6th overall, a possible reach. Opposite of that, Arthur Kaliyev was drafted at 33 overall. He went lower than most mocks had him going, a definite slide. Which two players do you see filing these roles in the upcoming draft?

The first thought I had when I read this question was that Russian goalie Yaroslav Askarov could actually fit in both categories.  Not everyone believes that a goalie should go in the top-10 and if he’s taken there, some would call it a reach.  But if enough teams believe in not ‘reaching’ for a goalie early, he could fall deep enough to qualify as a slide as well.

Jake Sanderson is one that might qualify for the possible reach category.  He seems to be somewhat of a late bloomer (which is hard to do considering there haven’t been any games for basically three months) but there are rankings that have the defenseman outside the top-20 and others as high as third overall.  He looks like someone that’s in the 10-13 range but if there’s a team that sees him as the number two blueliner on the board behind Jamie Drysdale (or number one even), they’ll do like Detroit did with Seider a year ago and grab him early.

In terms of a possible slider, I’ll take Mavrik Bourque.  He was top ten in the QMJHL in points per game this season, second behind only Alexis Lafreniere in terms of 18-year-olds in their first year of NHL draft eligibility.  He’s ranked from the mid-teens to mid-twenties by most publications but concerns about his size, skating, and injuries make him a candidate to slide back.  A team that gets him in the late first round or early second (like Kaliyev) should be quite happy to see him there.

acarneglia: Who starts for the Rangers in goal? Are the Rangers the biggest sleeper in the whole postseason?

The debate over who starts is almost certain to be covered in our storylines for them which will run in the coming days so I won’t bother getting into the complete discussion here.  I do think it’s Igor Shesterkin’s spot to lose though.  His strong play is a large factor in them simply getting to this spot as they weren’t really going anywhere before they brought him up partway through the season.  I also think he’s the one that has the best chance at getting on a bit of a run.  The lack of experience is concerning but for me, Shesterkin is the one with the most short-term upside (as well as having the best long-term upside).  In a short series, I’m going for that over giving one last nod to Henrik Lundqvist or potentially trying to aid Alexandar Georgiev’s trade value.

As for part two of your question, I’ll get to that momentarily.

wu tang killa beez: Who would you see as the biggest surprise in these playoffs? After all, there is no momentum for anyone, all the teams are a little rusty and are starting a new season.

Two playing styles come to mind as ones that can really stand out and make a run.  One is that a bunch of players get hot offensively for a few weeks and the other is a team that can get a hot goalie and/or gets their defensive system down quicker than everyone else.  Even better are the teams that can get all of the above and those are the ones that have the potential to surprise.

In the East, that pick would be the Rangers.  They had a top-five offense in the regular season and while career years from Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad played a big part of that, the supporting cast is still relatively strong.  They get good production from the back end as well.  And if Shesterkin plays like he did after being recalled (and that’s a big if given the inexperience), they can win a few rounds.  Of the teams that weren’t in a true playoff spot when the pandemic hit, they’re the biggest sleeper.

I also want to talk about Arizona a little bit as a potential surprise team in the West.  The goaltending was there all year and if Darcy Kuemper falters, Antti Raanta has shown that he can carry the load for a while without the team skipping a beat.  They have the defensive structure in place that they should be able to pick up again without much difficulty despite the layoff as they aren’t really integrating any newcomers from the trade deadline into the fold.  And with Taylor Hall, Phil Kessel, and Clayton Keller, they have a group of players that are capable of carrying the load offensively.  They didn’t do it much during the season but if they play to their potential, the Coyotes go from a decent team to a dangerous one.

aias: Do you think compliance buyouts will happen?

As you noted in a follow-up comment, I did touch on this in a mailbag last month but that wasn’t really a prediction on whether they’d happen and instead answered some more specific questions about it including my proposal on how they could make it a little different.

I think these will be tied to the ongoing CBA talks which are tied to the ongoing Return to Play talks.  If the NHL and the NHLPA can reach an agreement on an extension, a revised financial framework is likely going to come to fruition as well.  It will probably involve some sort of combination of increased escrow, a multi-year negotiation of the Upper Limit without the NHLPA having the ability to use the inflator, salary deferrals, and some revisions as to what is and isn’t classified as HRR.

A fixed salary cap at or around the current $81.5MM next season would be a problem for quite a few teams.  It wouldn’t be pretty but it would be manageable.  Keeping that rate for two years (or longer) is going to cause a lot of problems for a lot of teams and cause significant damage to the UFA market.  There probably isn’t much of an appetite for them if the cap problem is a one-year thing but if it goes longer, then a lot of general managers are going to want it and a lot of pending free agents will want it too to preserve their chances of getting a good contract on the open market.

I think they ultimately do reach a multi-year agreement about running a fixed salary cap so yes, I do think there will be some form of compliance buyout when all is said and done.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Metropolitan Storylines: New York Islanders

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While the stretch run is officially over with the NHL’s declaration that the play-in games won’t be part of the regular season, we still have one division left to get to in our Stretch Run Storylines series.  Our focus has been shifted to the Metropolitan Division with an eye on things to watch for in the postseason.  Next up is a look at the New York Islanders.

Last season was a bit of a roller coaster for the Islanders.  They surprised many by finishing second in the division despite the departure of John Tavares and swept Pittsburgh in the first round of the playoffs before being swept by Carolina.  They basically brought back the same roster for this season and the results weren’t as strong.  They’re set to match up with Florida in the play-in round to get back to the playoffs; here’s what to watch for from them.

Sorokin Saga

For years, Ilya Sorokin has been their goalie of the future.  The hope was that with the KHL shutting down its postseason, Sorokin would be free to sign his entry-level contract and burn it through this postseason.  In a normal year, that would be allowed since he was on New York’s reserve list at the trade deadline.  However, the NHL has ruled that no more current year contracts can be signed.  That is being contested by the NHLPA with an answer expected by the end of the month.

The final decision will ultimately have an impact on the Islanders’ plans.  If he’s ruled eligible to play, he’ll have an opportunity in camp to push for a top two spot although that would certainly be risky given his lack of exposure to play on the smaller North American ice surfaces.  It also means that he’d be able to sign a bigger contract this summer as a restricted free agent and eat into their projected cap space for the offseason.  If not, he’ll ink his entry-level deal for 2020-21 (which will likely contain some achievable bonuses) and get his bigger second contract a year later.  With several other teams having players in similar situations, this is one that more than the Isles will be watching.

Pageau’s Integration

Back at the trade deadline, the Islanders made one of the bigger splashes of the day, dealing 2020 first-round and second-round picks along with a conditional 2022 third-round selection to Ottawa for center Jean-Gabriel Pageau and then signed him to a six-year, $30MM extension hours later.  With the Senators, the 27-year-old was used in a top-six role and he responded with 24 goals and 40 points in 60 games that had him on his way to a career year before the pandemic hit.

His ice time dipped a bit after being acquired and while he still received plenty of time in a special teams role, Pageau was used on the third line which is the role he has been most accustomed to in his career with Mathew Barzal and Brock Nelson playing ahead of him.  The transition wasn’t the greatest as he had just a pair of goals in seven games after the trade before the pandemic shut down the schedule but he’s hardly the first person to experience an offensive dip while trying to get acclimated to a new team.

This extended break and pending three-week training camp provide Pageau and the Islanders with an opportunity.  He’ll have a chance to develop some chemistry with his expected linemates and readjust to playing in that bottom-six role.  Pageau has had a knack for scoring some big playoff goals in the past and New York will certainly be counting on him for that if they can get past the Panthers.  How well he integrates back into his old role will go a long way in dictating what type of success they’ll have this summer.

Also worth noting here is the conditions of the first-round pick.  If the Islanders lose to Florida and manage to win a top-three pick, the selection would instead transfer to Ottawa in 2021.  The Draft Lottery will be held next week with seven teams and eight placeholder spots to represent the teams that will lose their play-in series.

Barzal’s Last Push

Barzal’s rookie season was one to remember as he led the team in scoring with 85 points in 82 games and actually out-produced Tavares.  Accordingly, expectations were through the roof heading into his sophomore campaign.  While his output wasn’t bad by any stretch (18-44-62), it still represented a significant drop.  As he entered the final year of his entry-level contract, the spotlight was certainly on as he looked to get back to that higher level and bolster his value with the expectation of a long-term, big-money deal this summer.

While his overall production dropped again by two points, New York had 14 games left when the pandemic hit.  In terms of points per game, it improved from 0.76 a year ago to 0.88 this season which is a 72-point pace.  That’s undoubtedly what Barzal’s side will be using when it comes to contract talks.

This stretch of games will be his last chance to make his case the salary cap situation not looking as good as it did just a few months ago doesn’t help him.  But Barzal had a strong showing in the postseason a year ago and a repeat performance could be the clinching element needed to ensure the long-term contract over a shorter-term bridge deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Metropolitan Storylines: Columbus Blue Jackets

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While the stretch run is officially over with the NHL’s declaration that the play-in games won’t be part of the regular season, we still have one division left to get to in our Stretch Run Storylines series.  Our focus has been shifted to the Metropolitan Division with an eye on things to watch for in the postseason.  Next up is a look at Columbus.

The Blue Jackets were one of the surprises of the postseason last year.  Few gave them a chance against the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Lightning but instead, it was Columbus that swept Tampa Bay.  This version of the team lacks the star power last year’s group had with Artemi Panarin, Matt Duchene, and Sergei Bobrovsky all playing elsewhere but they were right in the thick of the battle for a top-three spot before the pandemic shut the season down.  They have a similar matchup as their first round clash last year as they’ll be taking on Toronto.  Here is what to watch for from the Blue Jackets.

Return Of Walking Wounded

Some teams will benefit from getting a key player or two back from injury that may not have been available to play had the postseason gone on as originally scheduled.  The Blue Jackets aren’t just getting a player or two back.  Instead, a third of their lineup will be returning.

Oliver Bjorkstrand was in the midst of a breakout season in spite of ankle and rib injuries that cost him 21 games; he still managed to lead the team in goals.  He’s back.  Cam Atkinson was having a quiet year but is a top-liner for them still.  He’s back from his lower-body issue.  So is promising youngster Alexandre Texier (lumbar stress fracture) and veteran Nathan Gerbe (groin) whose performance after an in-season call-up was enough to earn him a two-year extension.

But that’s not all.  How about adding back a 25-minute per game defenseman to the lineup?  Seth Jones was one of just seven blueliners to have that ATOI and he is back from his ankle injury.  Getting a number one defender back is a huge addition.  Dean Kukan (knee) isn’t as well known but he was holding down a regular spot on the back end before he went down.

Despite that, there are some players who won’t be returning.  Josh Anderson won’t be ready to go from his shoulder surgery and while he had a tough year offensively, his physicality will certainly be missed.  Veteran Brandon Dubinsky (wrist) will also remain out.  Even with them not playing, Columbus is getting several core players plus important regulars back.  Not many teams can say they’ll benefit anywhere near as much from this delay as them.

Who Starts?

There were understandably question marks between the pipes heading into the season.  There are now as well.  But it’s a different set of questions entirely.

Heading into the season, it seemed like the Blue Jackets were being risky going with a relatively unproven tandem of Joonas Korpisalo and rookie Elvis Merzlikins.  Merzlikins struggling early on only compound that.  However, both got going as the season progressed and when Korpisalo went down, Merzlikins came in and went on a tear, making a compelling case to stay in the top role in the process.

Both now are healthy and with the fact that it will be more than four months between games before teams take to the ice again, it’s an entirely clean slate.  Their three-week training camp could very well represent the competition to see who gets the nod in the first game against Toronto.

This series represents an interesting clash of styles.  The Maple Leafs had the second-most goals in the league this season while the Blue Jackets allowed the third-fewest.  With Columbus being a defense-first, low-scoring team, whoever gets the tap to start is going to have that extra challenge of facing a top attack.

Dubois’ Final Push

Heading into this season, Pierre-Luc Dubois looked like a prime candidate for a breakout year.  His sophomore campaign was strong and he played well in their playoff run last season.  Things didn’t quite go as planned, however.  While he managed to lead the Blue Jackets in scoring this year, his goals per game and points per game averages dipped despite a small uptick in ice time.  Losing players like Duchene and Panarin shifted Dubois from a secondary role to a front line one but the improvement in production wasn’t there.

As a restricted free agent this summer, that certainly doesn’t help his negotiating leverage.  Of course, he’s still in line for a significant raise but between this and the expected flattening of the salary cap, the time may not be right for either side to commit to a long-term, big money deal that buys out the remainder of his RFA eligibility and takes out some of his UFA years.  However, a big showing offensively in the play-in round and potentially longer would certainly help his case.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

One Trade The Islanders Would Like To Have Back

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While we await the return of the NHL, it’s a great time to look back at some of the influential transactions in NHL history. Yesterday we looked at the Capitals ill-fated midseason acquisition of winger Martin Erat. The deal cost them Filip Forsberg, who has developed the way Nashville hoped he would, while Erat provided little value at all during his short stay in Washington. But if we’re going to look at trades that helped shape our current era of NHL hockey – for better or worse – we should start at the top (or the bottom).

For trades worth second-guessing, there are very few as satisfying as the deal made between the Islanders and Senators way back in 2001. The deal sent Zdeno Chara to Ottawa along with Bill Muckalt and a 1st-round pick in exchange for Alexei Yashin. It’s frankly amazing that a deal from 2001 would include players still contributing in the NHL today, some nineteen years later, but that speaks to the impact of this transaction.

To find where the Islanders went wrong, there’s no better place to start than with Chara. Lots must go right for a player to reach his full potential, but that’s exactly what happened after Chara went to Ottawa. The deal came after Chara spent parts of four seasons in Long Island, and the then-23-year-old hadn’t really taken off. He was coming off a season in which he played in 82 games, but managed only 9 points and a plus/minus of -27. The Islanders weren’t a playoff team, finishing the 2000-2001 season in fifth place with 52 points.

Of course, things went much better for Chara from that point forth, as the hulking blueliner earned six Norris nominations (one win), seven All-Star honors, and he won a Stanley Cup with the Bruins in 2011. He’s also the NHL’s active leader in Plus/Minus (288) and Defensive Win Shares (99). The Senators only got four seasons from Chara, but they were among the best regular-season teams in the NHL during those years, making the playoffs each of those four seasons, and even managed to beat the Islanders in the first round of the 2002-2003 playoffs.

To make matters worse, Chara wasn’t the only piece the Islanders sent out on that ill-fated day in 2001. Bill Muckalt also went north in that deal, though the right-winger is at least one piece Islanders’ fans don’t have to lose sleep over. He played just one season in Ottawa, and he would be out of the league not two years later.

There’s one final piece. The Islanders sent the 2nd overall selection in the draft to the Senators, a pick that turned into center Jason Spezza. Spezza starred in the middle for eleven years in Ottawa, making two All-Star teams as one of the game’s stellar goal creators. He’s 91st all-time in the NHL now in Adjusted Points (1015) and 92nd all-time in Assists (599). At age-37, he’s a veteran presence on a Toronto Maple Leafs team that will look to enter the playoff field with a win against Columbus whenever play resumes.

Considering the Senators nabbed two all-timers from New York, this has to qualify as a pretty good deal for them. But there’s a give-and-take to every good deal right? Perhaps not so much. The Senators sent Alexei Yashin to the Islanders. Yashin was a fine player, just a year removed from a second-place finish for the Hart Trophy, but they gave up a lot to get him. To make matters worse, the Islanders doubled down and gave him a 10-year, $84MM contract less than three months after the trade, a contract that would have paid Yashin through his age-37 season. For examples of players remaining viable that deep into their careers, we need not look any further than Chara and Spezza. Unfortunately, the Islanders bet on the wrong horse. Yashin wouldn’t come close to recouping the value the Islanders poured into him. They bought him out after the sixth year.

One Trade The Capitals Would Like To Have Back

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While we await the return of the NHL, let’s take this opportunity to look back at some of the influential transactions in NHL history. For no particular reason, let’s jump to the trade deadline of the lockout-shortened 2012-2013 season.

On the date in question (April 3, 2013), the Washington Capitals were two points out of a playoff spot, looking to boost their chances of returning to the postseason for the sixth consecutive season. The Caps had been banged up to start the year, but at the deadline, they were on the rise and rounding into form. To get that little bit of extra oomph, the Caps traded top prospect Filip Forsberg to Nashville for LW Martin Erat and prospect Michael Latta.

The deal made a certain amount of sense at the time, as the Caps were trying to get over the hump and capture their first Stanley Cup. Led by all-world 27-year-old winger Alex Ovechkin, the pieces to make a run were in place, even if they hadn’t lived up to those lofty expectations as of yet. Forsberg, the 11th overall selection of the draft in the year prior, had a bright future, but he wasn’t anticipated to add value to the Caps for some time. Erat led the Predators with 21 points and 17 assists at the time of the deal.

Caps General Manager at the time George McPhee said this of the deal (from Katie Carrera of the Washington Post): “You’re here to win. We’ve been in that mode for a while. This is six years of trying to win a Cup. We had our rebuild phase, we sort of rebuilt things on the fly here, but we’d like to continue to make the playoffs while we’re doing it.”

Sure enough, adding a top-six winger like Erat to a line with Matthieu Perreault and Joel Ward could very well have made the difference for Washington. Of course, hindsight is 20/20, but Erat did not end up making the difference. He manages just two goals in 62 games with the Caps before requesting a trade the following season, which the Caps granted. They did manage to get back to the playoffs in 2012-2013, but they were bounced by the Rangers in the first round.

Latta lasted with the Caps for longer, though he never made much of an impact on the ice. He scored four total goals for Washington in parts of three seasons from 2013 to 2016.

As for the Predators, they are happy with their end of this deal. So much so that five years later, they took a victory lap with a gloat tweet.

Forsberg has made good on his prospect status in developing into a capable top-liner for Nashville. Still just 25-years-old, he’s averaged 0.36 goals per game and 0.41 assists per game over his NHL career. He’s a big piece of the Predators success over the years, and a player the Caps would certainly love to have back.

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