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What Your Team Is Thankful For: Ottawa Senators

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We’ve now made it past the holiday season but there is still plenty to be thankful. Like the last few years, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for but this year comes with a bit of a change. Normally teams would have an idea of where their season was heading, coming up on the one-quarter mark with mountains of statistics to analyze. Instead, in this unprecedented year, things are just getting underway. We’ll still take a look at what each group is excited about and what they could hope for with the calendar having now flipped to 2021.

What are the Senators most thankful for?

Their very promising young core.

There has been pain – plenty of it – in recent years but the rewards are coming.  Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle give them two top wingers to build around while Josh Norris is a key piece down the middle.  Thomas Chabot is already a star on the back end while they have several prospects that are a little further away.  Is there a true superstar among the bunch?  They’re hopeful Stutzle can get there but even not, there is enough high-quality prospect talent to do some damage.  If they’re able to spread out their arrival to the NHL over a few years, it will help them be able to afford to keep their core in place as well.

Who are the Senators most thankful for?

A franchise center and a franchise defenseman are hard to come by.  Ottawa doesn’t have the former just yet but they do have the latter in Chabot.  The 18th-overall pick in 2015 took a couple of years to get to the NHL but since then, he has taken off.  There is still room for growth and as their prospect core graduates to Ottawa and upgrades their back end, it can only be good for Chabot.

He’s also the first player out of their new young core to sign a long-term deal.  Instead of taking a bridge contract, he made a max-term eight-year commitment back in 2019 for an $8MM AAV.  He has been a fixture on their back end since 2017 and will be through 2028 at least.  On the franchise building scorecard, the number one defender spot can be checked off for a long time.

What would the Senators be even more thankful for?

A return to form for Colin White.

Two seasons ago, it appeared as if he was going to be part of that young core up front to build around.  He was coming off of a 41-point effort in 2018-19 and signed a six-year, $28.5MM contract that summer, buying up his remaining RFA years plus two years of UFA eligibility.  Even if he wasn’t their future number one center, he was on his way to being a good second-liner.

Last year, however, he struggled considerably and it has been even worse this season as he has already been scratched twice.  All of a sudden, his contract looks like a considerable overpay.  With their self-imposed financial limitations, they can’t afford to have long-term contracts that they’re not getting any sort of return on.  If White can first work his way back into the lineup and then back into a role of some significance, it would at least allow them to get some value out of this deal and make trading him a somewhat-viable option.

What should be on the Senators’ wish list?

As things stand, Ottawa at least on paper looks to be a team that’s probably going to be selling again.  They have several expiring contracts that they’ve absorbed in recent trades including Derek Stepan, Erik Gudbranson, and Artem Anisimov (acquired back in 2019).  If they wind up going that route, adding more picks and prospects to an already-deep cupboard will be on GM Pierre Dorion’s wish list.  Not every prospect pans out and there will come a time where some will need to be moved for win-now players (similar to what they did with the Matt Murray acquisition).  They’re close to being at a spot where they can transition out of the rebuild but while they’re still in it, they may as well keep adding young assets.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Florida Panthers

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Florida Panthers

Current Cap Hit: $78,081,662 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Eetu Luostarinen (two years, $898K)
D Riley Stillman (one year, $773K)
F Owen Tippett (two years, $863K)

Potential Bonuses
Tippett: $850K

Luostarinen somewhat surprisingly made the team out of training camp and has made an early impact on the third line.  If he’s able to hold down that spot for this season and into next, he’ll be in a good spot for a small raise but it’s far too early to forecast that.  Tippett had a decent first pro season, one that was mostly spent in the minors.  Like Luostarinen, there’s a definite path to a raise at the end of his deal but he will need to show that he’s capable of being a full-time player first.

Stillman established himself as a regular in the second half of last season but some of the defensive additions and his waiver exemption could work against him. If he winds up being shuffled to and from the taxi squad (where he currently sits), he’ll go from someone that could get a two-year deal at a small raise to one that will likely be settling for close to his qualifying offer.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Chris Driedger ($850K, UFA)
F Anthony Duclair ($1.7MM, RFA)
D Gustav Forsling ($700K, RFA)
F Vinnie Hinostroza ($1MM, UFA)
D Noah Juulsen ($700K, RFA)
F Alexander Wennberg ($2.25MM, UFA)

Wennberg was bought out by Columbus after a third straight tough season with Columbus but did relatively well for himself on the open market compared to others who suffered a similar fate.  He’s still young enough where a bounce-back season could help position him for a multi-year deal with a raise – likely not as much as he was getting on his last deal ($4.9MM) but an increase nonetheless.  Duclair leaving Ottawa was one of the bigger surprises after the Sens didn’t want to risk an arbitration hearing.  The winger had to settle for less than expected and with him being arbitration-eligible again, he may be more inclined to agree to a deal to avoid unrestricted free agency next summer.  Hinostroza showed flashes of offensive upside with Arizona but his arbitration eligibility hurt him as he was instead non-tendered in October.  He’s in a spot where if he can work his way up the lineup a bit, he’ll position himself for a small increase but otherwise, he’ll stay around this salary level.

Forsling and Juulsen were both added off waivers in training camp.  While Forsling has a reasonable amount of NHL experience, he’s someone that is going to hang around the minimum salary until he can establish himself as a regular.  As for Juulsen, injuries have cost him nearly two years of development.  It will be hard for him to step into a regular role which will have him in line for a minimal raise at most this summer.

Driedger had been a career minor leaguer until last year where he played quite well, albeit in a limited sample size of just a dozen appearances.  That gave him the backup spot heading into this season, his first real opportunity.  Even in a shortened year, a decent showing could have him double his AAV given the higher demand for backups in recent seasons.

Two Years Remaining

F Noel Acciari ($1.67MM, UFA)
F Aleksander Barkov ($5.9MM, UFA)
F Ryan Lomberg ($725K, UFA)
D Markus Nutivaara ($2.7MM, UFA)
D Anton Stralman ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Frank Vatrano ($2.533MM, UFA)
F Carter Verhaeghe ($1MM, UFA)

Barkov’s situation has come in recent days when it was revealed that teams were calling to inquire if he may be available; those were quickly rebuffed by GM Bill Zito.  Still, it suggested that the perception around the league may be that they think it’s unlikely that Florida’s franchise center will opt to sign an extension when this deal expires.  The Panthers have benefitted from being at a well below-market rate for several years now and it stands to reason that he’ll jump past the $10MM mark on his next contract given his elite two-way game and the fact he’d be hitting the open market at the age of 26 in the prime of his career.  He’ll immediately jump to the top of the UFA class for 2022 if he makes it that far.

Vatrano had a career year in his first full season with Florida after coming over from Boston, allowing him to get this deal which nearly tripled his previous AAV.  He followed that up with an improved 2019-20 campaign and while that normally would mean another raise would be in his future, what happened to middle-six wingers in free agency makes that outcome a bit less likely.  Even with a deflated market, a dip would be minimal though.  Acciari was one of the more surprising 20-goal scorers last season (his first after joining them from the Bruins) as he’d had just 18 in his entire career before then.  If it is indeed a sign of things to come, he’ll be well-positioned in free agency as the fact he can play down the middle would bolster his value.  If he goes back to being more of a checker though, he could be looking at a small cut.  Verhaeghe is an interesting pickup.  He has played heavy minutes in the early going and done well.  It’s obviously still early but Florida is hoping it could be another Jonathan Marchessault situation where the player leaves Tampa Bay and with a bigger opportunity, becomes a key player.  Verhaeghe, meanwhile, is hoping such a scenario would lead to a top-six payday, much like Marchessault got.  Lomberg is filling a depth role, one that should stay at a similar price point down the road.

Stralman was brought in to try to solidify Florida’s defense a year ago and that simply didn’t happen.  He didn’t have an overly poor season but it was a quiet year and their defensive issues persisted.  His next deal will carry 35-plus caveats so he’ll likely be going year-to-year moving forward, likely at a considerably lower salary as well.  Nutivaara was brought in from Columbus to bolster their third pairing.  He has a high price tag for someone that’s ideally a number six option though with their cap room, it’s a premium they can easily afford.

Three Years Remaining

F Brett Connolly ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Radko Gudas ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Patric Hornqvist ($5.3MM, UFA)
F Jonathan Huberdeau ($5.9MM, UFA)
D MacKenzie Weegar ($3.25MM, UFA)
D Keith Yandle ($6.35MM, UFA)

Huberdeau has turned into another bargain for the Panthers, providing top-line production for a second-line price tag.  Free agency wasn’t kind to wingers this offseason but that should change by the time he hits the open market which should have him in a spot to add another couple of million to his AAV.  Hornqvist was brought in to give them some more grit up front but he’s on the downswing of his career (despite the hot start this season) and his style of play has left him susceptible to injuries in recent years.  That combination makes it likely that his next deal (which also will be a 35-plus pact) will be a much smaller one.  Connolly did relatively well in his first season with Florida with 33 points.  It’s an above-market contract based on the most recent free agent market but they should still get a good return if he can stay around that point range.

Yandle’s situation has been well-documented.  After it looked like he’d be a healthy scratch, he has played in both games so far, albeit in a more limited role and actually has recorded points in each of them.  Nevertheless, it’s clear that it’s a contract they wouldn’t mind not having on the books but in this market, finding a taker will be tricky.  Weegar has worked his way up from a role player to a top-four piece and that price tag for that role is a below-market one.  Is he a top-four option if he wasn’t in Florida?  That is debatable but as long as their back end stays as is, they’ll get a good return on this contract.  Gudas was also brought in to reshape their third pairing with Florida paying a premium in terms of salary and probably term as well for his physicality.

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What Your Team Is Thankful For: New York Rangers

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We’ve now made it past the holiday season but there is still plenty to be thankful. Like the last few years, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for but this year comes with a bit of a change. Normally teams would have an idea of where their season was heading, coming up on the one-quarter mark with mountains of statistics to analyze. Instead, in this unprecedented year, the season hasn’t even begun. We’ll still take a look at what each group is excited about and what they could hope for with the calendar having now flipped to 2021.

What are the Rangers most thankful for?

The first-overall pick in the 2020 draft.

The New York Rangers hadn’t picked in the top three since 1966 when they received the second-overall pick in 2019 and drafted Kaapo Kakko. Then suddenly (a team that did get to appear in the opening round of the playoffs this year) found a way to beat the odds and win the first-overall pick in the 2020 draft in Alexis Lafreniere, giving the team two superstar youngsters who they can form their team around.

Like Kaapo, Lafreniere immediately made the team and should develop nicely over the next few years, giving that rebuild quite a boost — and probably making the franchise one of the luckiest in the league in the last couple of years.

Who are the Rangers most thankful for?

Two core players posting big numbers.

The team was able to sign Artemi Panarin last offseason and what a difference he made. Not only did Panarin put up career highs in his first year in New York — 32 goals and 95 points — the forward boosted everyone else around him as well. Mika Zibanejad had a breakout year as well, posting 41 goals and 75 points last year and showing that he was a top-line center when many were beginning to doubt he was. That core made it much easier to slowly integrate Kappo into the lineup and not needing to thrust him into the top six right away, allowing him the time he needed to earn his way there. The same will happen to Lafreniere as well this year. Having some top veterans only will make things easier for the team’s youth movement.

What would the Rangers be even more thankful for?

Continued development of their youngsters.

The team got some impressive performances last year from players like Anthony DeAngelo, Igor Shesterkin, Adam Fox, Ryan Lindgren, Filip Chytil and Brett Howden in which they all made significant contributions to the team. That development, including Kakko, must continue to improve this year. The team has to hope that many of their young players can take that next step and become highly productive players this year.

On top of that, the team will have a number of new players ready to step in, including Lafreniere, K’Andre Miller and Julien Gauthier, who all need to take that next step as well.

What should be on the Rangers’ wish list?

Another top-four defenseman.

Of course cap space could keep that from happening, but the team is relying quite a bit on a young defense. Jacob Trouba is solid, while Lindgren and Fox are developing, but what the Rangers really need is a reliable veteran that can help solidify the team’s defense. Whether the team can find a way to pick up a player at the trade deadline (assuming they are playoff bound), the team could use more help on their blueline.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Detroit Red Wings

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Detroit Red Wings

Current Cap Hit: $73,886,389 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Mathias Brome (one year, $925K)
D Moritz Seider (three years, $894K)
F Filip Zadina (two years, $894K)
F Michael Rasmussen (one year, $894K)
D Dennis Cholowski (one year, $894K)
D Gustav Lindstrom (one year, $775K)
D Filip Hronek (one year, $714K)
F Givani Smith (one year, $714K)

Potential Bonuses
Zadina: $850K
Rasmussen: $850K
Seider: $850K
Brome: $213K
Hronek: $158K
Smith: $158K
Lindstrom: $133K
Total: $3.21MM

The one thing that Detroit has plenty of is young talent on entry-level contracts. While not all of them have earned full-time roles on the team yet, others are ready to step in order to try and earn a bigger role. Currently, only Zadina and Hronek have earned full-time roles. Zadina earned a full-time role late in the season last year as he posted eight goals and has worked his way onto the second line to start the season. Hronek has been the team’s top defenseman for quite some time already and has already developed into an impressive blueliner.

Seider is an interesting case. The blueliner was originally expected to be at training camp, but with the long delay in the season, the team instead loaned him to the SHL for the entire season where he is flourishing. However, once the SHL season is over, Seider is likely to arrive in Detroit and take over a full-time role in a few months and could quickly become the team’s top defenseman.

Brome has impressed after signing a one-year deal, while Rasmussen, Smith, Cholowski and Lindstrom are currently on the taxi squad, hoping to work their way into the lineup as the year goes.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Henrik Zetterberg ($6.08MM, UFA)
F Marc Staal ($5.7MM, UFA)
F Darren Helm ($3.88MM, UFA)
F Tyler Bertuzzi ($3.5MM, RFA)
F Valtteri Filppula ($3MM, UFA)
D Patrik Nemeth ($3MM, UFA)
G Jonathan Bernier ($3MM, UFA)
F Luke Glendening ($1.8MM, UFA)
F Bobby Ryan ($1MM, UFA)
D Christian Djoos ($1MM, RFA)
F Adam Erne ($998K, RFA)
D Jonathon Merrill ($925K, UFA)
D Alex Biega ($875K, UFA)
F Sam Gagner ($850K, UFA)

The Detroit Red Wings have taken advantage of the fact that they are quite a bit under the cap and that likely won’t change next year as several of those old, long-term deals are about to expire next season, including those of Zetterberg, Staal, Helm and Glendening amongst others. That should give the team even more advantages down the road and could make them players in free agency if they think they are closer to competing.

Bertuzzi is in line for a bigger deal as well. The RFA signed a one-year bridge deal, but if the first-line winger can put up big numbers once again, he could be in line for a significant raise. Bertuzzi has scored 21 goals in each of the past two seasons and has developed into a go-to scorer for the team. Bernier has been solid since signing last offseason. Despite being on a team with a weak defense, Bernier appeared in 46 games and still somehow maintained a .907 save percentage, making him a solid tandem-pairing goaltender.

Detroit and general manager Steve Yzerman have also invested in veteran players who can help the team develop and avoid finishing dead last again. Players like Ryan, Filppula, Merrill, Erne and Gagner all will have to prove themselves if they want to return next year.

Two Years Remaining

F Frans Nielsen ($5.25MM, UFA)
D Danny DeKeyser ($5MM, UFA)
G Thomas Greiss ($3.6MM, UFA)
F Robby Fabbri ($2.95MM, UFA)
F Vladislav Namestnikov ($2MM, UFA)
D Troy Stecher ($1.7MM, UFA)

If you think the team will start accruing serious cap space in two years, you’re mistaken. The team has a number of other contracts that will come off the books in two years, including those of Nielsen and DeKeyser. Nielsen was once a big scorer in Detroit, but potted just four goals in 60 games last season and could slowly be worked out of the lineup as younger players prove they are ready. DeKeyser does have a more significant role with the team, but injuries have derailed his career the last few years. He will have to really step up his game to get any kind of an extension down the road.

The team has high expectations for Fabbri, who the team acquired midseason last year at a cheap price. He then took his game up a notch, posting 14 goals and 31 points in 52 games. The 24-year-old has now moved onto the second line as he is focusing on moving back to the center position. If he can keep it up, he might be able to reach the promise that he had when he was first drafted.

Yzerman invested in several one-year deals during the offseason, but also went out of his way to bring in a few significant players on two-year deals as well. The team is hoping that Greiss can pick up where he left off last year with the Islanders and be the perfect complement to Bernier in net. Greiss posted a .913 save percentage in 31 games last season and should be a solid presence in net for Detroit this season. Namestnikov has also proven to be a solid middle-six player, who can play almost anywhere in the lineup. Stecher also has proven to be a player that the Red Wings can use to help out in second and third pairing options to bolster its defense.

Three Years Remaining

F Dylan Larkin ($6.1MM, UFA)

There isn’t many long-term deals already in the books, but the team still has three more years of Larkin, the team captain, at a reasonable salary. The deal looked even better two years ago when he put up 32 goals and 73 points. Unfortunately, those numbers dipped a bit last season as he scored just 19 goals and 53 points in just five less games. Detroit has to hope that Larkin can get back to his 2018-19 numbers with improved play at his wings and a team that isn’t mired in a horrendous season. Regardless, Larkin is the face of the franchise and, at just 24 years of age, should continue to get better and better over the next few years.Read more

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Buffalo Sabres

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Buffalo Sabres

Current Cap Hit: $79,614,282 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Dylan Cozens (three years, $894K)
D Rasmus Dahlin (one year, $925K)
D Henri Jokiharju (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Cozens: $850K
Dahlin: $2.85MM
Jokiharju: $637.5K
Total: $4.3375MM

Cozens made the team despite a shortened training camp due to him playing at the World Juniors where he was one of the top performers in the tournament.  He isn’t eligible to play in the AHL whenever the WHL gets underway so a decision will have to be made in a few weeks as to whether or not to burn the first year of his entry-level deal.  The threshold has been cut to seven games meaning that if Cozens plays in that seventh contest, his contract officially burns a year.

Dahlin hasn’t been the flashiest player since being taken first overall in 2018 but he has already established himself as an important part of their back end and a player they’ll want to build around.  Discussions surrounding a long-term deal would likely use Florida’s Aaron Ekblad ($7.5MM AAV for eight years) as a potential comparable and with the flexibility that they’re about to have on the cap, they can easily afford to go that route if they want.  As for Jokiharju, he played a regular role on the third pairing after being acquired from Chicago.  Unless he’s able to jump into their top four though, a short-term contract makes the most sense and without arbitration eligibility, he shouldn’t be able to command a sizable raise.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Taylor Hall ($8MM, UFA)
G Carter Hutton ($2.75MM, UFA)
D Matt Irwin ($700K, UFA)
D Jake McCabe ($2.85MM, UFA)
D Brandon Montour ($3.85MM, UFA)
F Sam Reinhart ($5.2MM, RFA)
F Tobias Rieder ($700K, UFA)
F Riley Sheahan ($700K, UFA)
F Eric Staal ($3.25MM, UFA)
G Linus Ullmark ($2.6MM, UFA)

The Sabres made a big splash in free agency by getting Hall to sign with them.  It was a surprise on multiple fronts in that a non-playoff team landed him and that it was just for one year although the state of the UFA market helped push his fate in that direction fairly quickly.  He’ll get a chance to rebuild his value a little bit in the hopes of getting a similar price tag on a long-term deal this summer but with many teams trending to tight to the cap for next year as well, a contract similar to this one can’t be ruled out either.  Staal was brought in from Minnesota in the offseason and is coming off a solid season.  He’s slowing down but as long as he can produce like a second-liner, there’s a spot for him around his current price tag.  Rieder and Sheahan are both depth players and will either be retained or replaced by others making the minimum.

Reinhart’s situation largely has flown under the radar due to Hall but it’s reaching the point where a decision is going to need to be made.  Instead of inking a long-term deal this past offseason, Reinhart and the Sabres opted for a one-year deal, giving him another crack at restricted free agency with arbitration eligibility in the summer.  However, he’s now only one year away from UFA eligibility so if talks on a long-term deal don’t go well, he can easily just file for arbitration, get his one-year contract, and hit the open market in the prime of his career.  They’ve kicked the can as far as they can and GM Kevyn Adams will need to get a long-term agreement in place with Reinhart this offseason.

Montour was a speculative non-tender candidate after a tough first full season with the Sabres although he wound up accepting a small raise that walks him to UFA eligibility.  But if he doesn’t show the promise that he did in his time with Anaheim, he’ll be hard-pressed to receive his current salary on the open market.  McCabe has seen a lot of second pairing playing time in recent years and has held his own although he’s better used as a fifth option.  While he doesn’t produce much offensively, he’s still fairly young and it wouldn’t be surprising if he winds up with a deal around what Joel Edmundson signed to avoid hitting the open market with Montreal, a multi-year deal in the $3.5MM range.  Irwin has been at or near the minimum for a few years now and that’s unlikely to change.

Ullmark was expected to be part of the long-term solution for Buffalo between the pipes and while that’s still possible, the fact that he only received a one-year deal to get him to UFA eligibility means that the Sabres aren’t yet sold on that possibility.  While he should be able to do enough to earn a small raise at a minimum given the recent demand for quality backups, he’ll need a big year to have a shot at starter money.  Hutton is coming off of a tough season and will need a bounce-back year to garner some interest.  At the very least, he’ll be going year-to-year moving forward as any future contracts will have 35-plus rules attached to them.

Two Years Remaining

F Cody Eakin ($2.25MM, UFA)
F Curtis Lazar ($800K, UFA)
D Colin Miller ($3.875MM, UFA)
F Victor Olofsson ($3.05MM, RFA)
D Rasmus Ristolainen ($5.4MM, UFA)

Olofsson was one of the pleasant surprises in what was a tough season for the Sabres as he was one of the top-scoring rookies in the league before a lower-body injury derailed his momentum.  A bridge deal made a lot of sense for both sides given how his production caught many off guard but if he picks up where he left off and scores at a 20-goal or more pace, he could easily add another million or two to his price tag.  Eakin was brought in as an unrestricted free agent to give them some veteran depth down the middle although the price tag was on the high side given what other role players had to sign for.  Lazar hasn’t lived up to his first-round draft billing but he’s affordable depth that will either be replaced or retained at that price tag.

Ristolainen continues to be one of the more polarizing blueliners in the league.  There’s no denying that he has a strong offensive game but his play in his own end isn’t graded anywhere near as favorably.  Still, he will enter the market at 27 in the prime of his career and is a right-shot player, the side where supply is much shallower than demand.  A small raise, even in this marketplace, is a definite possibility.  After being a key part of the back end in Vegas, Miller didn’t fare anywhere near as well with Buffalo and his ice time has been cut further in the early going this year.  He will need to establish himself as a viable top-four option if he wants to have a chance at getting something close to his current AAV in 2022.

Three Years Remaining

F Zemgus Girgensons ($2.2MM, UFA)
F Kyle Okposo ($6MM, UFA)
F Tage Thompson ($1.4MM, RFA)

Okposo is now officially in the back half of the deal he signed in the ill-fated 2016 offseason.  His days of being an impact player have come and gone but he’s still serviceable in a bottom-six role.  It’s too bad for the Sabres that he’s paid way too much for that particular role though.  Girgensons also got an above-market deal for a depth player and it’s certainly not off to a good start as he’s already out for the season.  Thompson is the lone player left from the Ryan O’Reilly deal to St. Louis and battled injury troubles last year.  He accepted a bit of security by taking the three-year agreement and it shouldn’t take much for Buffalo to get a good return on it but he’ll need to establish himself as a top-six forward to have a shot at a significant raise in 2023.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Boston Bruins

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Boston Bruins

Current Cap Hit: $78,517,314 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Trent Frederic (one year, $925K)
D Urho Vaakanainen (two years, $894K)
F Jack Studnicka (two years, $769K)

Potential Bonuses:
Vaakanainen: $425K
Frederic: $300K
Studnicka: $108K

Young players on entry-level deals are hard to find, but the team does have three prospects drafted high back in 2016 and 2017 who look to be ready to step into the Bruins’ lineup or at least should find their way onto the taxi squad at the very least in Frederic, Studnicka and Vaakanainen. Frederic and Studnicka are battling for middle-six roles, while Vaakanainen is fighting for one of the third pairing roles available on the defense. All have the potential to be solid role players for the team down the role. The question is, when will that happen?

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F David Krejci ($7.25MM, UFA)
G Tuukka Rask ($7MM, UFA)
D Brandon Carlo ($2.85MM, RFA)
F Ondrej Kase ($2.6MM, RFA)
G Jaroslav Halak ($2.25MM, UFA)
F Nick Ritchie ($1.5MM, RFA)
F Sean Kuraly ($1.28MM, UFA)
D Kevan Miller ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Par Lindholm ($850K, UFA)
D Steven Kampfer ($800K, UFA)
F Greg McKegg ($700K, UFA)
F Anton Blidh ($700K, RFA)

Quite a few names are on their final year and Boston will have to make some key decisions with the flat salary cap likely remaining the same for the moment. At the top of the list, is their goaltending situation with both netminders, Rask and Halak, ready to hit unrestricted free agency. Rask has said recently that he would like to remain with the Bruins for the rest of his career, but there also has been questions on how much longer the 33-year-old wants to play as retirement has been an option too. Rask was dominant last year during the regular season with a 2.12 GAA and a .929 save percentage. Unfortunately he opted to leave the bubble during the playoffs due to concerns to tend to a family emergency. A long-term deal wouldn’t make sense, but the team could offer him a three-year pact, if he’s willing to take it. Halak is in a similar situation and was solid with a 2.39 GAA and a .919 save percentage and also could see a similar extension.

Krejci is another veteran the team will have to make a decision on. The veteran is completing a six-year, $43.5MM contract. The belief is that the two sides are expected to begin talks of a potential extension, likely less years and less money, considering he’ll be 35 when his contract expires. However, he has been a solid second-line center for years, although he only scored 13 goals last season, a disappointing season for him. Carlo, however, could see a significant raise next year as the blueliner has developed into a solid top-four pairing defenseman over the last few years.

Two other key decisions will be Kase and Ritchie, both acquired from Anaheim before the trade deadline last season. The speedy Kase struggled once he got to Boston, and didn’t register a goal in six regular season and 11 playoff games. Ritchie was brought in to add some muscle to their bottom-six, but he also hasn’t stood out yet. Both will get long looks this season before the team decides whether to offer them new contracts.

Two Years Remaining

F Patrice Bergeron ($6.88MM, UFA)
D Charlie McAvoy ($4.9MM, RFA)
F Jake Debrusk ($3.68MM, RFA)
D Jeremy Lauzon ($850K, RFA)
F Karson Kuhlman ($725K, RFA)

The Bruins’ first line has been dominant for years and Bergeron’s contract will be the first to expire. The 35-year-old veteran hardly plays his age, but will be 37 years old when his deal expires. He continues to dominate, scoring 31 goals in 61 games last year and doesn’t look like he’s slowing down, but the team will have no choice but to wait and see how he progresses over the final two years in his deal.

The team likely will have to pay up in a couple years for two of their restricted free agents as both McAvoy and Debrusk will likely be taking on bigger roles this season and could take that next step, which suggests that much of their available cap room at this point will be going to both these players. McAvoy had 32 points in 67 games last year, but will likely become the key to the first power play with Torey Krug gone and could see a big jump in his offensive numbers. Lauzon is an interesting name as he currently is playing next to McAvoy on the first pairing, although that may not remain that way. Regardless, he’s pushed his way into what looks like a top-four pairing role and could be a valuable commodity down the road.

Three Years Remaining

F David Pastrnak ($6.67MM, UFA)
F Craig Smith ($3.1MM, UFA)
D John Moore ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Anders Bjork ($1.6MM, RFA)
F Chris Wagner ($1.35MM, UFA)
D Connor Clifton ($1MM, UFA)

Pastrnak is likely to get a long-term deal in three years. He’ll be 27 and an unrestricted free agent, meaning it could cost the Bruins a great deal to lock him up to a long-term deal considering other teams could bid on him too at that time. The team has to hope they can sign him to an extension before he hits UFA status in 2023. Regardless, he has developed into one of the top scorers in the league, posting 48 goals and 95 points in 70 games. Of course, he is currently out of the lineup after he underwent a right hip arthroscopy and labral repair on September 16. He should return at some point in the season, but no word yet on his return.

Smith was brought in this offseason on a reasonable three-year deal in hopes of adding some scoring to their third line, something that has been a trouble-spot for the team in recent years. He tallied 18 goals last season and has scored 64 goals over the past three seasons with Nashville. Bjork has struggled with injuries over the years, but looks ready to contribute this year. He finally played a full season, scoring nine goals in a bottom-six role and should get more opportunities this year.

Of course, the five-year, $13.75MM deal handed to Moore continues to look bad. The veteran blueliner has struggled earning a full-time role on defense and currently looks like the team’s seventh defenseman when the third pairing role is completely in the air.

Four Years Remaining

D Matt Grzelcyk ($3.69MM, UFA)

Grzelcyk’s role with the team has been a diminished one as the defenseman mainly has seen third-pairing minutes. However, with Krug gone, many of those minutes will be given to Grzelcyk, including some power play time, suggesting this could be a big season for him. The team anticipated that and rewarded his hard work with a four-year deal and believe that he will take off, especially offensively this year and be a big contributor for many years, which could make his contract look like a bargain if he does take that next step.Read more

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Winnipeg Jets

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Winnipeg Jets

Current Cap Hit: $83,015,356 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

David Gustafsson (two years, $818K)

Potential Bonuses:
Gustafsson: $132.5K

The 20-year-old made the team out of camp last year as a fourth liner but was eventually moved to the minors.  He’s probably in a similar situation this season and shouldn’t be looking at a costly second deal.  Kristian Vesalainen (two years, $894K plus $850K per year in bonuses) could also be heard from at some point but he may be more of a midseason recall.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Laurent Brossoit ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Andrew Copp ($2.24MM, RFA)
D Derek Forbort ($1MM, UFA)
F Patrik Laine ($6.75MM, RFA)
F Adam Lowry ($2.916MM, UFA)
F Mathieu Perreault ($4.125MM, UFA)
D Neal Pionk ($3MM, RFA)
D Tucker Poolman ($775K, UFA)
D Luca Sbisa ($800K, UFA)
F Paul Stastny ($6.5MM, UFA)
F Nate Thompson ($750K, UFA)
F Dominic Toninato ($700K, UFA)

Let’s start with the biggest name on the list in Laine.  His preference for a trade doesn’t matter a whole lot for this exercise and knowing it’s a contract year with plenty on the line, even if he isn’t thrilled about his situation, it shouldn’t affect his play.  There’s no denying that he is one of the better pure goal-scorers in the league but there’s also no denying that he’s one of the streakiest scorers in the league either.  With a $7.5MM qualifying offer on the horizon, Laine will need to improve on his consistency if he wants to land more than a nominal bump on that if it goes to arbitration.  A long-term deal may not be as lucrative as it could have been a couple of years ago given the current financial landscape but Laine should be one of the highest-paid wingers in the league next year if one can be reached – with Winnipeg or someone else.

Stastny was brought in as a cap dump from Vegas but this is a good landing spot for him.  He’s familiar with the system and could see a small uptick in minutes.  While he’ll re-enter the market subject to 35+ caveats in July, he’s still a capable middle-six center and should be able to command longer than a one-year deal although it will have to come with a notable dip in pay.  Perreault is still a serviceable player that can move up and down the lineup but someone with that skillset should be making about half of what he currently is and that should be his market rate this summer.

Lowry is a player who could very well be hit hard by the current financial situation.  The hope that he’d be able to provide more offense has largely faded and instead, he’s someone that should be between 20-25 points in a normal year while winning a fair share of faceoffs and providing some physicality.  That’s definitely an effective role player but teams will be trying to squeeze their lower-line options for financial savings which doesn’t bode well for his chances of a raise.  Copp saw a lot of time in the top six last season and the offensive results weren’t really there.  He’ll need to be better at that end if he wants to get much more than his $2.3MM qualifying offer.  Thompson and Toninato were brought in for extra depth down the middle and their spots will be filled by similarly-priced depth players if they don’t re-sign for next season; neither should be expected to command much more than the minimum on the open market.

On the back end, Pionk vastly exceeded expectations in his first season in Winnipeg and appears to be well-positioned to land a long-term deal this offseason and if his point per game rate this season is similar to 2019-20, doubling his AAV isn’t out of the question.  Forbort had a rough year injury-wise a year ago which cratered his market this fall but before that, he was a 20-minute per game player.  He should have the opportunity for similar ice time and if he can stay healthy, he could re-enter free agency in July with a considerably larger number of suitors.  Poolman’s progression has been slow and steady so far.  He already has shown himself to be capable of handling a third-pairing workload which on its own should help earn him a small raise.  If he can work his way into number four minutes though, he could be one of the more intriguing unheralded options in free agency next summer.  Sbisa was an effective depth player last season but it’s hard to anticipate his market growing substantially after having to wait until 2019-20 started before he could get a deal last season.

Brossoit’s second year with the Jets wasn’t anywhere near as good as his first as he went from high-end backup numbers to low-end.  Nevertheless, he got a small raise but will need to be closer to his 2018-19 numbers for that to happen again next offseason.

Two Years Remaining

F Mason Appleton ($900K, RFA)
D Nathan Beaulieu ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Jansen Harkins ($725K, RFA)

Appleton has been in and out of Winnipeg’s lineup the last couple of years in a limited role.  If he remains primarily a fourth liner, he won’t have much leverage in securing a bigger deal two years from now with his arbitration eligibility potentially working against him at that time.  Harkins made his NHL debut last season and did enough to convince the Jets to give him a one-way deal at the minimum for both seasons.  He’ll need to work his way into a regular role for his arbitration eligibility to work in his favor in 2022.

Beaulieu hasn’t lived up to his first-round draft billing but since joining the Jets, he has been a serviceable option on the third pairing.  That earned him this two-year guarantee but it’s unlikely he’ll be able to land much more than that on the open market unless he can step into a spot inside their top four.

Three Years Remaining

The Jets don’t have anyone on their roster whose contract expires in 2023.

Four Years Remaining

D Dylan DeMelo ($3MM, UFA)
G Connor Hellebuyck ($6.166MM, UFA)
F Bryan Little ($5.292MM, UFA)
F Mark Scheifele ($6.25MM, UFA)
F Blake Wheeler ($8.25MM, UFA)

Wheeler has been one of the faces of the franchise since the team moved from Atlanta and was recognized for it by this deal, one that takes him through his age-37 season.  There is definitely some risk in the last year or two but he is still a top-line player and even acquitted himself well having to play down the middle for extended periods last season.  Scheifele’s deal seemed like a bit of a risk at the time considering that he only had one 20-goal campaign under his belt at the time it was signed but it has turned into one of the better bargains in the league as he has emerged as a legitimate front-line center.  Little, another long-time Jet, played just seven games last season and has been ruled out for the season as he continues to recover from a perforated eardrum after taking a shot to the head.  He’ll be eligible for LTIR which will get Winnipeg into cap compliance.

DeMelo has certainly seen his stock rise.  He was only two years removed from a non-tender by San Jose, only to re-sign for $900K a week into free agency.  He hit his stride after being traded to Ottawa and fit in quite well with Winnipeg after they acquired him before the deadline.  This was certainly a big raise but he’s worth the price if he plays at a similar level throughout this contract.

Hellebuyck has had a heavy workload the past three seasons and has held up quite well overall, even taking home the Vezina Trophy in 2019-20.  Without a top goalie prospect in the system, this is going to be his spot to hold for a while and at a price tag that’s barely $1MM above the median above starting goaltenders, this has become another bargain for GM Kevin Cheveldayoff.

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What Your Team Is Thankful For: New York Islanders

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We’ve now made it past the holiday season but there is still plenty to be thankful. Like the last few years, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for but this year comes with a bit of a change. Normally teams would have an idea of where their season was heading, coming up on the one-quarter mark with mountains of statistics to analyze. Instead, in this unprecedented year, the season hasn’t even begun. We’ll still take a look at what each group is excited about and what they could hope for with the calendar having now flipped to 2021.

What are the Islanders most thankful for?

Some goaltending stability.

When Jaroslav Halak started to falter towards the end of his tenure with New York (one that had him buried in the minors at one point), there were some patchwork replacements added in Thomas Greiss and Robin Lehner (for one year) but neither were viewed as long-term starting options.  Then came Semyon Varlamov in the 2019 offseason on a four-year deal, providing some stability at the position.

They’re certainly also thankful that they were finally able to lure Ilya Sorokin to North America, using the ability to burn his one-year entry-level deal in the bubble to do so.  The 25-year-old has long been viewed as one of the best goalies outside the league and if he lives up to his potential, he could be pushing Varlamov for playing time before long.  All of a sudden, things appear to be set between the pipes.

Who are the Islanders most thankful for?

Center Mathew Barzal.  How could it not be him?  He has been in the league for three years and has led the team in points all three times.  The 23-year-old has quickly become one of the better playmakers in the league despite playing for a team that isn’t exactly an offensive juggernaut.  Getting a player like that in the middle of the first round is a great return on their investment, one that hasn’t cost them a lot financially so far.  That will soon change whenever his next contract gets signed.  While a long-term deal would be desirable from GM Lou Lamoriello’s standpoint, their cap situation would make doing so quite difficult.  Nevertheless, even a bridge deal will cost a pretty penny but the price will be well worth it.

What would the Islanders be even more thankful for?

Beyond getting a contract for Barzal in place?  The Islanders would be thrilled if they could get a similar performance from their back end this season as they did last year but that will be tricky without Devon Toews (a cap casualty that was traded to Colorado) and the injured Johnny Boychuk.  That will put a lot of pressure on youngster Noah Dobson, in particular, for the upcoming season.  He was certainly eased in last year but that is a luxury they can’t afford now; instead, they’re likely hoping for top-four minutes from him most nights.  Barzal adapted quickly to the NHL and became a star almost overnight.  Dobson is taking the slower approach but they’d be quite thankful for Dobson taking more than a step or two forward in his development in 2020-21.

What should be on the Islanders’ wish list?

Cap space.  They need some flexibility even with Boychuk’s eventual LTIR placement and with many teams either capped out or facing budgetary restrictions, this is hardly an ideal market to try and shed salary.  The Isles have several higher-priced veterans that have underperformed since signing their contracts so Lamoriello is going to have to be creative in order to make that happen.  There are plenty of dominoes to fall still (including Barzal’s contract and several PTOs being converted into NHL contracts) so this is certainly something that needs to be addressed quickly.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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