Trade Deadline Primer: Toronto Maple Leafs
We are now just a few days away from the NHL Trade Deadline and talks are heating up. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
After bringing in some experience and character in the offseason, the Toronto Maple Leafs have been the unquestioned leader of the North Division for most of the season. They now sit seven points clear of the second place Winnipeg Jets, meaning if there was ever a year for GM Kyle Dubas to push his chips to the middle, this might be it. Dubas himself has admitted that the team’s cap situation may lend itself to going after a rental instead of a player with term this year, meaning nearly everyone on an expiring contract could be a target for the Maple Leafs. A complicated cap situation will make the deadline difficult to navigate though, as will a mysterious injury to goaltender Frederik Andersen.
Record
27-10-3, .713, 1st in North Division
Deadline Status
Buyers
Deadline Cap Space
$140K in full-season space ($626K at the deadline), 1/3 retention slots used, 44/50 contracts used per CapFriendly
Upcoming Draft Picks
2021: TOR 1st, TOR 2nd, TOR 4th, TOR 5th, TOR 6th*
2022: TOR 1st, TOR 2nd, TOR 3rd, TOR 4th, TOR 5th, TOR 6th, TOR 7th
Trade Chips
If you go by TSN’s Trade Bait board, the player most likely dealt by the Maple Leafs is “Toronto’s Top Prospect.” This idea comes from a press conference Dubas held last month, at which he admitted that they would be willing to move a top prospect to improve this season. While there has been no real clarity on who that top prospect would be, the group of Rasmus Sandin, Nicholas Robertson, Timothy Liljegren, and Rodion Amirov seem the most likely candidates. Are one of those names worth moving for a rental? With the market establishing for top rentals following the Kyle Palmieri trade, it may not actually end up requiring one of Toronto’s best to add a middle-six name. If they go after a bigger fish, all options are on the table.
There’s a good chance that Toronto’s first-round pick will also end up being pretty late this year thanks to the divisional competition, perhaps meaning the team would be willing to part with it to make a run. Dubas hasn’t hesitated in moving picks out before, trading a first for Jake Muzzin and another to rid himself of Patrick Marleau‘s contract.
In terms of roster players, if a forward is coming in, someone else may have to be going out in order to stay under the cap ceiling. Alexander Kerfoot is the player who might find himself on the outside given the $3.5MM cap hit he carries, though names like Ilya Mikheyev or Pierre Engvall could also fit the bill. All three players are well-liked by the coaching staff and provide desirable attributes, but thanks to the addition of Alex Galchenyuk in the top-six, may be expendable.
Travis Dermott is the other name that usually dominates Maple Leafs speculation, though it appears as though Toronto head coach Sheldon Keefe is comfortable with the six defensemen he has. Dermott is an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent in the offseason and will likely have to be exposed to Seattle in the expansion draft, meaning there’s at least a chance that the Maple Leafs could flip him for a rental at the deadline. Sandin is expected to challenge for a full-time spot next season and could fill that bottom-pairing role, meaning Dermott’s time in Toronto could be coming to an end soon enough, even if he makes it through Monday.
Others to watch for: F Filip Hallander, F Joey Anderson, D Calle Rosen
Team Needs
1) Top-six forward: Even though Galchenyuk has found a home next to John Tavares on the second line, he still has just four points in ten games with the Maple Leafs and could be upgraded. If Dubas and company truly believe they have a chance to go for the Stanley Cup this season, adding another winger that is more than just a role player is the easiest way to improve. Zach Hyman, who is currently skating on the top line next to Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, is a utility knife that can move anywhere in the lineup and still have an impact. Bringing in a real difference-maker could push this group over the edge.
2) Depth: They probably have enough of it on the fringes of the forward group, but Toronto is playing a dangerous game in goal. Jack Campbell is carrying the load and has been outstanding, but has a long history of injuries. If he were to go out before Andersen returns—which still doesn’t have a definitive timeline—the team would be left with some combination of Michael Hutchinson, Veini Vehvilainen and Joseph Woll in the crease. On defense it’s much of the same story, given how inexperienced the options are beyond the top six. If someone like T.J. Brodie or Justin Holl were to go down, the Maple Leafs would be hard-pressed to fill that role on the right side. Adding some more flexibility and experience is always a positive when expecting a long playoff run.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Trade Deadline Primer: Tampa Bay Lightning
We are now less than a week away from the NHL Trade Deadline and talks are heating up. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Tampa Bay Lightning.
The defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning needed to look for a new challenge this season after stomping the competition in the 2020 postseason. They decided that if the league’s teams weren’t good enough to beat them, they would just take on the league itself. This season, the Lightning have stretched the NHL’s hard salary cap to it’s limit. Some might even throw the word “circumvention” out there. Tampa has managed to hold on to it’s extremely talented and fairly compensated roster due almost entirely due to the timely injury of Nikita Kucherov and the acquisitions of other injured players Marian Gaborik and Anders Nilsson. The Bolts have over $17MM in salary on Long-Term Injured Reserve – and they’ve used up all but $370,500 of it. There is zero space for the Lightning to do anything at the trade deadline beyond a minor depth addition, but they will get a major boost in the postseason with the return of Kucherov. Barring another opportunistic injury or a hockey trade that no one sees coming, the Bolts may have to settle for that this season.
Record
26-11-2, .692, 3rd in Central Division
Deadline Status
Stand Pat
Deadline Cap Space
$0MM in full-season space ($371K in LTIR space), 0/3 retention slots used, 45/50 contracts used per CapFriendly
Upcoming Draft Picks
2021: TBL 1st, TBL 3rd, TBL 4th, TBL 5th, TBL 6th, NJD 7th, NSH 7th, TBL 7th
2022: TBL 1st, TBL 3rd, TBL 4th, TBL 5th, TBL 6th, TBL 7th
Trade Chips
There is a difference between what the Lightning could offer and what they will offer, given that they are in no position to make much of a trade. It is unlikely that the team is going to move any of their roster players to open up space, so even though pieces like Tyler Johnson and Alex Killorn may seem expendable, it is hard to imagine the team trading them in-season as opposed to waiting for the off-season.
As a result, Tampa has little space to work with and that means their targets will not be high-priced pieces. The most likely result for the Bolts is that they add a cheap depth piece in exchange for a late pick or low-end prospect. Those are the “chips” that will probably move, if there is any move at all.
In the event that Tampa tries to make a bigger move, using the very limit of their salary cap potential despite the risks, they will still be looking at a picks-and-prospects scenario in this buyer’s market. Without a second-round pick for the next two years, the Lightning’s first-rounders are probably off the table unless they are asking a team to give up one of the top rentals on the market and retain the maximum 50% of his salary in order to make the deal work under the cap. The likelihood of such a deal is low. Expect for them instead to dangle multiple mid-round picks and prospects like Jack Finley or Jack Thompson if they really want to make a splash.
Others to Watch For: F Taylor Raddysh ($833K, RFA), F Boris Katchouk ($833K, RFA), F Alex Barre-Boulet ($759K, RFA), F Sam Walker (Draft Rights), D Eamon Powell (Draft Rights)
Team Needs
1) Defense – If, and it’s a big if, the Lightning are able to find a way to clear enough cap space to add a player of note at the deadline, it has to be on the blue line. The forward corps is deep and talented and will only get better once the postseason arrives and Kucherov can return. The net is well-manned, with Andrei Vasilevskiy enjoying another Vezina-caliber season. Both of those units remain largely unchanged from last season’s title-winning lineup. However, the defense has taken a hit. The top four is still stout, but the bottom pair and depth options range from young and inexperienced to old and ineffective. Tampa could really use a stabilizing force on the back end, especially with Jan Rutta sidelined and Erik Cernak dealing with a nagging injury. Of course, cost will be a factor. Without making a trade to move out salary, the Bolts can only open up another $1.5MM max and still be able to ice a full lineup, demoting the likes of Luke Schenn and Ben Thomas. That leaves the Bolts with a maximum $1.9MM or so to acquire a defenseman, but adding that much salary is a risk should another injury occur. The need is there, but the means to address it are problematic. The team likely thinks small with a value addition.
Trade Deadline Primer: St. Louis Blues
We are now less than a week away from the NHL Trade Deadline and talks are heating up. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the St. Louis Blues.
It has been a disappointing season in St. Louis, to put it lightly. They were comfortably in the playoff mix until a month ago when things went completely off the rails as they’ve won just twice since then, falling out of the postseason picture in the process. All of a sudden, a team that looked like they were poised to be potential buyers may very well be changing course and moving some players out over the next few days.
Record
16-16-6, T-5th in West Division
Deadline Status
Potential Seller
Deadline Cap Space
$0 in regular cap space, $1.2MM in LTIR space, 0/3 retention slots used, 48/50 contracts used per CapFriendly.
Upcoming Draft Picks
2021: STL 1st, STL 3rd, STL 5th, STL 6th, DET 7th
2022: STL 1st, STL 2nd, STL 3rd, STL 4th, STL 5th, STL 6th
Trade Chips
Vince Dunn has been in trade speculation dating back to last season and the Blues were involved in trade talks involving him earlier in the year. Though he’s only two years removed from a 35-point sophomore campaign, his production has tapered off since then and he has just a dozen points (5-7-12) in 36 games this season despite averaging more than 19 minutes a night, the most of his career. With Torey Krug and Colton Parayko serving as two sure-fire protectees in expansion, there’s only one slot remaining and Justin Faulk could be staking a claim to that spot. It feels like a matter of when, not if, Dunn gets moved and as he’s rather cheap now ($1.875MM), his market may be stronger now than this summer when he’ll be arbitration-eligible for the first time and in need of protection by whoever makes a move for him.
Mike Hoffman was brought in to help offset the loss of Vladimir Tarasenko who started the season on LTIR with recurring shoulder troubles. 21 points (9-12-21) in 36 isn’t bad but it’s safe to say he has underperformed relative to expectations. It was extremely unlikely he’d be back next year regardless of how he played due to their cap situation so if they believe they’re going to miss the playoffs, it would make sense for GM Doug Armstrong to try to flip him. With a $4MM price tag, they may need to retain to facilitate a move though. Tyler Bozak ($5MM) is in a similar situation but with declining production, his market will be more limited. Jaden Schwartz ($5.35MM) is another pending UFA but if there is mutual interest in an extension, they may not move him.
Veteran defensemen are always in demand at this time of year and while he’s not a rental, Robert Bortuzzo could generate some interest. He’s a third-pairing or seventh option at this stage of his career but he can still play with physicality and kill penalties, elements that are often coveted at this time of year. He has another year left at $1.375MM, a rate that isn’t all that high for someone in that role but St. Louis would ideally likely to fill that spot with someone making a bit less to try to give themselves some more cap flexibility for next year.
Others to Watch For: Ivan Barbashev ($1.475MM, RFA), F Kyle Clifford ($1MM through 2021-22), D Steven Santini ($700K, RFA)
Team Needs
1) Draft Picks – With only two picks in the first four rounds, there’s a clear need to restock the cupboard. They didn’t have their second-round selection last year and their first rounder the year before that as well. Hoffman and Dunn give them two options that may be able to yield a high pick or impact prospect and there is going to be a definite need to supplement that core with cost-controlled entry-level deals. It’s hard to get those with only two picks in the first 130 selections.
2) Backup Goalie Upgrade – For a few years, Ville Husso was seen as a goalie of the future for St. Louis. That future came this season with Jake Allen moved to Montreal, giving Husso a path to NHL action. The initial returns haven’t been great as he has a save percentage of just .883 this season. If the Blues think they’re still in the mix, a better backup helps. If they’re thinking about next season, a better backup may be needed in the offseason but if they can get that player now, they may as well go ahead and do so.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Trade Deadline Primer: San Jose Sharks
We are now less than a week away from the NHL Trade Deadline and talks are heating up. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the San Jose Sharks.
Earlier this season, it appeared as if the San Jose Sharks were in for another disappointing year. The club wanted to use the shortened 2020-21 campaign to evaluate their core and the early returns were not encouraging. However, the past few weeks have changed everything. The Sharks are 6-3-1 in their past ten games, including four straight wins. In the meantime, the St. Louis Blues have continued to slump while four of the Sharks’ recent wins have come against the Los Angeles Kings. Suddenly, San Jose finds themselves in contention for a playoff spot in the West Division, just three points back with a game in hand on the fourth-place Arizona Coyotes.
With that said, some recent luck is not going to change the Sharks’ plans for the season. The team is not going to give up major assets for short-term help just on the off-chance that they can sneak into the playoffs where the West’s daunting top three teams await. The core is still in the process of proving themselves and San Jose likely wants to see if they have the pieces in place to be a playoff team once again, knowing that rentals will not put themselves over the top this season. This does not mean that the Sharks will sit back at the deadline though; the club has some fringe pieces on expiring contracts that they could look to deal away and there are some needs beyond this season that they may discover a chance to address. In short, San Jose is unlikely to stand pat, but don’t expect them to sell off anything more than rental pieces or to acquire any major rental help of their own.
Record
17-16-4, .514, T-5th in East Division
Deadline Status
Light Seller/Opportunistic Buyer
Deadline Cap Space
$2.41MM in full-season space ($10.74MM at the deadline), 0/3 retention slots used, 48/50 contracts used per CapFriendly
Upcoming Draft Picks
2021: SJS 1st, SJS 3rd, SJS 4th, SJS 5th, SJS 6th, SJS 7th
2022: SJS 1st, SJS 2nd, SJS 3rd, SJS 4th, SJS 6th, MIN 7th
Trade Chips
In terms of rentals, the Sharks do not have much to offer other buyers. However, for that same reason they will probably not hesitate to move any of their expiring contracts if there is interest. None of the Sharks’ impending UFA’s are anything more than depth pieces, in San Jose or elsewhere. The Sharks’ ability to retain salary if need be could result in some better trade returns, but there isn’t much to get excited about.
Among the rental group, veteran goaltender Devan Dubnyk is likely their most valuable trade chip, if only because he is one of a small number of available net minders with postseason experience. The Sharks’ plan to combine Dubnyk and Martin Jones and hope one will rediscover their starter status has not really worked out. Jones has improved marginally this year, but Dubnyk has been a bust. The 34-year-old has an .898 save percentage and 3.18 GAA thus far, resulting in just three wins on the year. Dubnyk will not command much of a return unless the scarcity of goalies creates a bidding war. There are certainly those in San Jose who would like to see Jones traded, but that move won’t happen at the deadline, if it ever happens at all.
Up front, Patrick Marleau is the biggest name, but not likely to be the most valuable. Sure, Marleau brings more experience and leadership than most in the game, but he did not work out as a rental for the Pittsburgh Penguins last year and that was even after finding decent success with the Sharks pre-trade. The 41-year-old has been a non-factor this season with just six points 37 games and may not even have any suitors. Making the playoffs one last time with the Sharks would probably mean more than another go-round as a rental for the respected veteran. The real name to watch among San Jose’s expiring forwards is Marcus Sorensen. Although his production has been poor this season, Sorenson is a good two-way forward and notched 17 goals and 30 points just two years ago. Contenders looking for fourth line options could do worse than Sorenson. Matthew Nieto and Kurtis Gabriel are other bottom-six forwards who could have value, but Nieto is currently injured and Gabriel has become a well-liked locker room presence for the Sharks this year, so neither is a lock to leave.
Others to Watch For: D Fredrik Claesson ($700K, UFA), F Fredrik Handemark ($925K, UFA), F Stefan Noesen ($925K, UFA), F Antti Suomela ($700K, UFA), D Nick DeSimone ($700K, Group 6 UFA)
Team Needs
1) Term Forward – Even if the Sharks don’t venture into true “buyer” territory, they still need to keep their eyes open for possible forward additions for next season – or more accurately, for the Expansion Draft. San Jose is in a tough situation when it comes to meeting the exposure requirements of the impending draft. Currently, they have just five forwards who meet the games played and term criteria and all five will almost certainly be protected: Logan Couture, Evander Kane, Timo Meier, Tomas Hertl, and Kevin Labanc. They have zero forwards who can meet the exposure requirements simply by playing more games this season. This means that the Sharks must add two forward before the draft, either by re-signing or acquisition. Their extension candidates, who would qualify by only signing on for another year, include Sorenson, Marleau, and Nieto – any of whom could be traded and none of whom appear to be part of the Sharks’ future – and Dylan Gambrell and Rudolfs Balcers, who would seemingly be competing for the seventh and final protection spot. As a result, it seems more likely than not that San Jose will need to make an addition before June and they may as well add some additional help before the deadline, especially if the likes of Sorenson, Marleau, or Nieto head out of town. The Sharks could honestly use another long-term top-six forward, especially with the futures of Kane and Hertl in doubt, if they do decide to take a bigger swing at the deadline.
2) Goaltender – If the Sharks do trade Dubnyk, they won’t have much choice but to add another goaltender. The club likes young keepers Alexei Melnichuk and Josef Korenar, but the duo’s AHL numbers show that they are not ready for NHL backup duty this year and probably not next year either. San Jose could look for a cheaper rental to replace Dubnyk or they could look for a goalie with term or an impending free agent that would warrant an extension. The Sharks have previously been linked to the Florida Panthers’ Chris Driedger.
3) Prospect Defensemen – If the Sharks are not successful in landing valuable draft picks in exchange for their rentals, they should target defensive prospects. While San Jose has some nice young defensemen at the NHL level, the pipeline is all but bare behind polarizing Ryan Merkley. The team desperately needs to add bodies on the blue line, especially with an aging core in the NHL and the potential to lose a roster defenseman in the Expansion Draft.
Trade Deadline Primer: Pittsburgh Penguins
We are now just over a week away from the NHL Trade Deadline and talks are heating up. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Pittsburgh Penguins.
It has been an eventful year for the Penguins, to put it lightly. They’ve been hit hard by injuries, have had inconsistent goaltending at times, and had to deal with a sudden GM resignation as well when Jim Rutherford abruptly left. In spite of all of that, they are comfortably in a top-three spot in the East Division and are within striking distance of the number one seed. GM Ron Hextall will undoubtedly be looking to buy but he doesn’t appear to have the trade chips to be overly active.
Record
24-12-2, 3rd in East Division
Deadline Status
Buyer
Deadline Cap Space
$833K in full-season space ($1.12MM at the trade deadline), 1/3 retention slots used, 48/50 contracts used per CapFriendly.
Pittsburgh also currently has some LTIR spending room with Evgeni Malkin on there at the moment. However, he is expected to return before the end of the season so that space can’t be used to trade for an impact replacement and thus is not factored into the above numbers.
Upcoming Draft Picks
2021: PIT 2nd, PIT 5th, ANA 7th, PIT 7th, WSH 7th
2022: PIT 1st, PIT 2nd, PIT 3rd, PIT 4th, PIT 5th, PIT 6th, PIT 7th
Trade Chips
When you don’t have a surplus of picks or prospects to deal from nor the cap space to take on a pricey contract, it’s tricky to find possible fits to intrigue other teams. One possible option is defenseman Juuso Riikola. He has been limited to just two games this season but has been a sixth or seventh option for a couple of years now. Their long list of injuries on defense (which included him for roughly six weeks) forced them to bring some other players in and as a result, the 27-year-old hasn’t played since being activated off LTIR nearly a month ago. With another year left on his deal at $1.15MM, Riikola’s salary is one that could be thrown into a move to try to match money for cap purposes.
Prospect winger Radim Zohorna has impressed in the minors and even chipped in with a goal in two games with Pittsburgh. At 6’6, his size will be intriguing to quite a few teams and if the Pens don’t want to part with a draft pick and instead want to move a prospect under contract instead, the 24-year-old pending restricted free agent will be asked about fairly quickly.
If Hextall wants to shake things up more drastically, Jason Zucker stands out as a longshot candidate to move. They paid a fairly high price to get him and with how he has performed, they’d be hard-pressed to recoup that now. However, with a $5.5MM price tag for two more years after this, moving him would allow them to potentially free up some wiggle room to make an impact addition now and depending on the term of the contract, possibly give them some extra space over the next two years when they’ll still be tight to the cap. Zucker may make more sense as an offseason trade candidate if they could find the right fit (there is a 10-team no-trade clause to contend with) but without many viable options to move now, he’s worth a mention here.
Others to Watch For: F Sam Miletic ($700K, RFA), F Valtteri Puustinen (prospect whose rights expire June 1st), Colton Sceviour ($1.2MM, UFA)
Team Needs
1) Center Depth – The long-term injuries to Malkin and Jared McCann (even Teddy Blueger has missed time) has emphasized how thin they are up the middle. Sam Lafferty and now Frederick Gaudreau have held their own but someone that’s an upgrade on those two that can serve a purpose on the fourth line but move up to anchor the third line if injuries strike would be nice. They were able to add some defensive depth when the injuries hit but that didn’t happen with their middlemen.
2) Goaltending Insurance – Casey DeSmith is having a fine season but only has 65 career games under his belt. Tristan Jarry has been up and down but has been okay overall. He too hasn’t played in 100 career NHL contests, sitting at 87. Their taxi squad option is Maxime Lagace who has a GAA near 4.00 in his limited NHL action. A more proven third option in case the injury bug bites yet again or one of the two netminders struggle would be a low-cost acquisition that could wind up being useful later on.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Trade Deadline Primer: Philadelphia Flyers
We are now less than two weeks away from the NHL Trade Deadline and talks are heating up. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Philadelphia Flyers.
After the first ten games of the season, the Flyers were 7-2-1. Another ten made it 12-5-3. This seemed like the year they would really compete for an East Division crown and step into the limelight as a Stanley Cup contender. But over the last month, things have continued to trend downwards and after being the team to finally break the Buffalo Sabres losing streak, the Flyers deadline position isn’t at all clear.
Record
17-14-4, 5th in East Division
Deadline Status
Hesitant buyer
Deadline Cap Space
$4.94MM in full-season space ($6.84MM at the trade deadline), 0/3 retention slots used, 50/50 contracts used per CapFriendly.
Upcoming Draft Picks
2021: PHI 1st, PHI 2nd, PHI 3rd, PHI 4th, PHI 6th, PHI 7th
2022: PHI 1st, PHI 2nd, PHI 3rd, PHI 4th, PHI 5th, PHI 6th, PHI 7th
Trade Chips
The first name that will be brought up is Shayne Gostisbehere, the recently-waived defenseman that still excites the imagination of hockey fans everywhere other than Philadelphia. The 2016 Calder Trophy runner-up set a career-high with 65 points in 2017-18 but has seen his effectiveness and role plummet ever since. There are still flashes of absolute brilliance from the 27-year-old defenseman but his contract, which carries a $4.5MM cap hit through the 2022-23 season makes it hard to live with his turnovers and poor defensive decisions. That contract also got him through waivers, but perhaps if the Flyers retained some salary he could still be a valuable trade piece.
Still, it seems more likely that teams would be after different players on the Flyers roster, including rental forward Scott Laughton. The 26-year-old Laughton is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, has just a $2.3MM cap hit, and is starting to generate some interest among the deadline speculators.
If the struggles continue for another week and they end up selling (a strategy that our Brian La Rose would already be taking), Erik Gustafsson is an easy flip to a contender that is looking for a little more depth on the back end.
Others to watch for: F Michael Raffl ($1.6MM, UFA), D Derrick Pouliot ($700K, UFA), F Nicolas Aube-Kubel ($1.075MM through 2021-22)
Team Needs:
1) Top-4 Defenseman: There’s no getting around it, when Matt Niskanen retired suddenly before the season began, Philadelphia’s plans were disrupted. The team has never really been able to fill his spot in the lineup and desperately needs a partner for Ivan Provorov. Those kinds of defensemen are not available very often, especially if they come with any term on their contract. That’s why the Flyers were immediately linked to Mattias Ekholm when his name started being thrown around, but with another Nashville Predators win today it’s hard to see them selling their talented defenseman.
Even if the Flyers believe in their team, a real fix in that top-four spot will be difficult to find at the deadline and may have to wait for the offseason.
2) Middle-six scorer: With Oskar Lindblom and Nolan Patrick both still trying to find their way after long absences, the Flyers haven’t been able to find that consistent goal-scoring from their third line. Adding a player that can put the puck in the net at even-strength and help on one of the powerplay units would certainly make them more dangerous. With prospects coming, a rental is probably the play here if the Flyers are buying at the deadline.
3) Veteran goalie: This is a bit of a tough spot given how much faith the team still has in Carter Hart to be a franchise starter, but no team is going to compete in the NHL with an .877 save percentage from their goaltenders. That’s the number Hart and Brian Elliott have combined for this season, meaning the team could certainly afford to bring in someone else to stabilize the crease down the stretch.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
PHR Mailbag: Islanders, Devils Trade Options, Avalanche Goalies, Laviolette, Penguins, Flyers, Jets Defense
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what the Islanders may try to do at the trade deadline, possible returns for New Jersey’s trade options, Colorado’s goaltending situation, Peter Laviolette, Pittsburgh’s deadline goals, what the Flyers should do by the deadline, and Winnipeg’s weakened back end. If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.
Y2KAK: Who do you think the Islanders pursue at the trade deadline?
redsfanken: What are the Islanders plans? Is really like to see some type of sniper like Patrik Laine, any chance?
Kyle Palmieri seems to be close to the perfect fit aside from the fact he plays the right wing and the player he’d effectively be replacing (Anders Lee) plays the left side. I don’t think that would be enough to scuttle a deal either. He’s a rental player with a proven track record of success that would immediately give their top six a boost. They wouldn’t necessarily need New Jersey to retain half of the cap hit and salary which gives them a small edge that most of his other potential suitors don’t have.
Failing that, the focus will be on other rentals. Taylor Hall would have to be considered with the usual retention caveat applying. If Columbus opts to sell, Nick Foligno is the type of player that would fit New York’s playing style and given GM Lou Lamoriello’s affinity for Travis Zajac, I’m sure there will be a cursory inquiry if their options on the wing all fall through.
A sniper like Laine would help every team but acquiring him would really complicate things for the Islanders on the salary cap front next season. A restricted free agent, Laine is owed a $7.5MM qualifying offer and he will likely be seeking more than that with salary arbitration eligibility. The Isles have nearly $75MM in commitments already for next season per CapFriendly to just 15 players. Even backing out Johnny Boychuk’s $6MM as he’ll be LTIR-eligible once again, they don’t have enough cap room to take on Laine’s expected contract, fill out the rest of their roster, and stay cap-compliant. The focus needs to be on rental players as a result with Lee expected to be ready to return next season.
SpeakOfTheDevil: Realistically what could the returns be for the Devils players rumored to be on the block?
Palmieri, Kulikov, Murray, Subban, Gusev
Kyle Palmieri – Based on his history of being a consistent scorer, GM Tom Fitzgerald would probably like to see a first-round pick for Palmieri’s services. I’m not overly confident he’ll get it though. With just eight goals this season in 34 games, he’s not exactly playing at the top of his game which is going to hurt. A second-round pick seems low but that coupled with a decent prospect should be doable. If they have to retain money, the quality of the prospect should increase.
Dmitry Kulikov – I took a closer look at him last weekend so I won’t rehash that here. He’s worth a mid-round pick or comparable prospect.
Ryan Murray – He’s someone that probably isn’t cracking the top four of a playoff-bound team and at $4.6MM, he’s expensive for a third-pairing player. He’s worth a mid-round pick as long as New Jersey retains half of the money and probably takes some sort of salary offset back.
P.K. Subban – He’s having a better year than last season but that’s not saying much. His price tag is way too expensive for teams to fit in and it’s hard to imagine the Devils being willing to retain half which they’d need to if they wanted to make a deal. I don’t see a feasible trade for him by the deadline.
Nikita Gusev – Gusev cleared waivers yesterday so the ‘give him away for free’ option is off the table. It has been a dreadful year for him and I doubt there is much if any interest in him around the league. If there’s a swap of bad contracts in a change of scenery type of trade, perhaps he moves but he probably stays and a buyout in the summer shouldn’t be ruled out.
kales1206: Do you think the Avalanche will be making some moves to improve their goaltending depth because I know Johansson isn’t the answer?
They certainly would benefit from such a move. While I understand the idea behind targeting Jonas Johansson, playing in front of a better team has not made him a better goalie. Is he an upgrade on what Hunter Miska was providing? A bit but he also isn’t going to be reliable enough to be the full-fledged backup if Pavel Francouz doesn’t return which is something that seems like a real possibility at this point. There was a reason that Buffalo parted with him for so little as they had clearly given up on him. It was worth a shot they would be wise to take a better one…if they can afford it.
A lot is going to depend on Francouz’s outlook over the next ten days. If they think he’s done for the season, they’ll be able to spend his money on a replacement – perhaps Jonathan Bernier with Detroit retaining some money? To me, that makes the most sense. But if they believe that Francouz will be back, that complicates things as they’d need to get back into cap compliance to activate Francouz. That’s doable if Erik Johnson doesn’t come back and stays on LTIR for the rest of the season but he has been week to week for many weeks now; there’s a lot of uncertainty with him as well.
Adding a veteran upgrade to help Philipp Grubauer should be high on GM Joe Sakic’s wish list as long as Francouz can’t return for the rest of the year. If that determination is made, then yes, I do believe they’ll add a goalie. But if they can’t reach that conclusion on him or Johnson, it becomes a lot more complicated to try to make a move, a hurdle that could be too tricky to overcome cap-wise.
MoneyBallJustWorks: Any chance Francis tries to pry Laviolette from Washington? Could make an expansion draft like deal but for a coach.
I know there’s a brief connection between Seattle GM Ron Francis and Washington head coach Peter Laviolette from their days in Carolina when Francis was still playing but is Laviolette so much better than any other current head coaching candidate that isn’t currently with a team to justify ‘trading’ for him? I don’t think that’s the case, especially with Gerard Gallant, who helped lead the last expansion team to a better-than-expected start, still out there.
There’s also the matter of being unable to trade coaches like Quebec did with Michel Bergeron back in 1987 when they traded him to the Rangers for a first-round pick or Toronto including the negotiating rights to Marc Crawford as part of the Mats Sundin trade seven years later, also involving Quebec. That makes it really difficult to try to do things on the up and up, so to speak.
For something like this to happen, the Capitals would have to fire Laviolette, then Laviolette would have to go on an interview tour to show that this wasn’t a pre-arranged deal before being hired for the same or higher rate than he’s getting now, and lastly, Seattle would have to make a trade that is in Washington’s favor but not by enough to raise the eyebrows of the league who could probably piece it together anyway. It’s a creative idea but I don’t think it’s doable and with how the Caps are doing this year, I don’t see Washington wanting to let Laviolette go anyway even with some sort of compensation.
gozurman1: What would you do, if anything, if you were the Penguins? It appears Jarry is coming back within the next game or two. Same with Blueger. If Malkin and Kapanen are both good to go, would you mess with altering the team that seems to have been playing well since February when the defensemen all got healthy?
I’d definitely be trying to add if I was GM Ron Hextall. They don’t need to make several trades and ship players out to shake things up but if they can afford to add a veteran piece or two to improve the depth on the roster, they should be doing so. These types of players shouldn’t be drastically altering team chemistry by any stretch.
As for what they should be trying to add, I’d be looking down the middle. Evgeni Malkin is nearing a return but between him and Jared McCann both missing considerable time, an insurance policy would definitely be ideal. Someone that could fill the role that Matt Cullen did in the past where he could kill penalties and be decent enough offensively to be able to slide onto the third line if someone gets hurt. Team president Brian Burke has indicated that they’re looking for more grit so that’s an element they’ll probably want to target as well.
Of course, cap space is at a premium, especially with Malkin set to come off LTIR somewhat soon. Per CapFriendly, they can only add about $1.1MM on deadline day so it’s going to take a bit of creativity to add to the roster. Pittsburgh can afford a depth upgrade and that’s about it; a move like that shouldn’t create any concerns of disrupting team chemistry.
Trade Deadline Primer: Ottawa Senators
We are now less than two weeks away from the NHL Trade Deadline and talks are heating up. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Ottawa Senators.
It has been a bit of an up-and-down year for Ottawa as they’ve been able to hold their own against half of the North Division but have been dominated badly by the other half. The end result has them about where many expected, in the basement but showing signs of improvement as the season progresses. However, with where they are, they’re not yet in a position where they’ll be trying to add players at the deadline.
Record
12-21-4, 7th in North Division
Deadline Status
Seller
Deadline Cap Space
$25.2MM in full-season space ($35.87MM at the trade deadline), 0/3 retention slots used, 47/50 contracts used per CapFriendly.
Upcoming Draft Picks
2021: OTT 1st, OTT 2nd, SJ 2nd, OTT 3rd, OTT 6th, OTT 7th
2022: OTT 1st, OTT 2nd, TB 2nd, OTT 3rd, OTT 4th, OTT 5th, OTT 6th, OTT 7th, SJ 7th
Trade Chips
When you’re a team in the basement, rentals are usually the currency to be moved and that’s no exception here. Erik Gudbranson is no doubt overpaid at $4MM but can still help a third pairing of some playoff-bound squads. This is the time of year where teams will look for grit and he provides plenty of that as he’s one of the more physical blueliners in the league. Teams also tend to look for players who can play shorthanded and Gudbranson does that too. It’ll certainly take some retention in order to facilitate a trade but as long as Ottawa is willing to do so, there should be a market for the 29-year-old if they don’t work out any sort of contract extension first.
From the day that Ottawa acquired Ryan Dzingel, it felt like he could be on the move again. The winger has actually produced relatively well since joining the team with five goals in 12 games but with their young group of forwards, he’s someone that seemingly doesn’t fit into their long-term plans. Again, some retention will be needed as he carries a $3.375MM cap hit but he could fit the bill for a team looking for depth scoring. Mike Reilly, a puck-moving defenseman, should also draw some interest. He’s more affordable than Gudbranson with a $1.5MM price tag and already has 15 assists on the season.
As for a non-rental player, Logan Brown has been in trade speculation for a while after his agent Andy Scott sounded off about Ottawa’s treatment of his client back in October of 2019. The 11th-overall pick in 2016 has just 29 career NHL games under his belt and doesn’t appear to be a big part of their long-term plans. What doesn’t help here is that Brown has been out for most of the AHL season with no timeline for a return but this is a situation where teams may be trying to buy low knowing that the pending restricted free agent will be waiver-eligible next season. Of course, GM Pierre Dorion isn’t obligated to provide the center with a change of scenery at this juncture but it wouldn’t be surprising to see teams call about his possible availability.
Others to Watch For: D Josh Brown ($1.2MM through 2021-22), D Braydon Coburn ($1.7MM, UFA)
Team Needs
1) Draft Picks – With the possible exception of Logan Brown, none of the others on this list are likely to garner enough interest to the point where a quality prospect would be involved. Instead, they’re more likely to be worth mid to late-round draft picks. The Sens are down fourth and fifth-rounders from trades that brought in veterans and these next couple of weeks represent a good opportunity to replenish those.
2) Impact Defenseman – While this goes directly against the idea of being a seller, Ottawa’s back end has been a problem for a while now. There is hope on the horizon with some of their prospects and it even appears that Jacob Bernard-Docker is going to get a look once he gets through quarantine. But a stabilizing top-four option would really help this roster. It would take some pressure off the youngsters that are developing and ideally lessen the need to play Thomas Chabot over 30 minutes a night, a mark he has surpassed in four of the last six games. If there’s an opportunity to take advantage of a cap-strapped team to add such a blueliner, they’d be wise to take it now rather than wait until the offseason when such a move may make more sense.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag
The trade deadline is now less than two weeks away and activity is starting to pick up around the league. However, with this being a unique year in terms of so many teams being up against the salary cap, it’s likely to be a unique deadline.
With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR mailbag. If you missed the last one, it was broken into two pieces. The first discussed Jake DeBrusk’s struggles in Boston and his potential to be moved, what New Jersey needs to, plus some thoughts on the upcoming UFA goalie market. The second looked at the idea that the Sharks could be buyers at the deadline, what Dougie Hamilton’s next contract might look like, and the never-ending search for a top-line center in Columbus.
You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run this weekend.
Trade Deadline Primer: New York Rangers
We are now less than two weeks away from the NHL Trade Deadline and talks are heating up. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the New York Rangers.
The New York Rangers are a rebuilding team with a large assortment of promising, young pieces to build around. The team has been competitive this season, but is still a few pieces away from rounding out into a contender.
This is the description of a seller. The problem this poses to the Rangers: who are they supposed to sell? The roster is completely devoid of valuable impending free agents. Not one of New York’s UFA’s-to-be is at the top or even the middle of any buyer’s wish list. In a cap-strapped, expansion-affected, in-season trade market, the Rangers are also not going to make any major moves right now to shake up their roster or look to add those missing core pieces. The Rangers should be sellers; they simply have nothing to sell at this moment.
Record
16-15-4, .514, 6th in East Division
Deadline Status
Stand Pat (By Default)
Deadline Cap Space
$4.01MM in full-season space ($17.87MM at the deadline), 0/3 retention slots used, 44/50 contracts used per CapFriendly
Upcoming Draft Picks
2021: NYR 1st, BUF 3rd, NYR 3rd, OTT 4th, LAK 4th, NYR 4th, NYR 5th, NYR 6th, NYR 7th
2022: NYR 1st, NYR 2nd, NYR 3rd, NYR 4th, NYR 5th, NYR 6th, NYR 7th
Trade Chips
A warning for the following: the word “chips” should be taken with a grain of salt – and nothing is worse than chips without enough salt. The Rangers’ trade chips are either under-seasoned or old and stale. New York could deal the whole bag for the trade capital equivalent of 99 cents. There is nothing to see here.
The most recognizable rentals on the New York roster are veteran defensemen Jack Johnson and Brandon Smith, two of the most maligned defenders in the NHL in recent years. Johnson has already cleared waivers without any takers, while Smith’s $4.35MM contract means he is unlikely to move.
Phil Di Giuseppe is the Ranger’s lone impending free agent forward on the NHL roster and their best available rental. The 27-year-old winger has eight points in 25 games, which isn’t anything special, but puts him on a 26-point full-season pace – a good value at just $700K. Di Giuseppe may not be a household name, but he has nearly 200 NHL games to his credit as well. Contenders could do worse for a cheap depth rental.
As for players with some term on their contracts, the Rangers could listen on forwards Colin Blackwell and Kevin Rooney, defenseman Anthony Bitetto, or veteran goaltender Keith Kinkaid. However, they have to be wary of the Expansion Draft exposure requirements and the repercussions that moving any of these players would have. Especially at forward, where the team already dealt away Brendan Lemieux, moving another term forward is a shaky proposition.
Of course, the big name on the block in New York is defenseman Anthony DeAngelo. With more than enough talent to command a nice trade return on ability alone, the fact is that if a DeAngelo trade was going to happen, it likely would have already. Some teams are wary of his character concerns, while others are not comfortable with adding his $4.8MM cap hit to their 2021-22 payroll. Either way, DeAngelo seems likely to stay put in New York through the season until he can be used as Expansion Draft fodder and then bought out. DeAngelo is too good not to play in the NHL again, but it won’t be this year.
Others to Watch For: F Jonny Brodzinski ($700K, UFA), F Anthony Greco ($737.5K, 2022 UFA), F Patrick Newell ($792.5K, RFA), D Darren Raddysh ($700K, Group 6 UFA), D Mason Geertsen ($725K, 2022 UFA)
Team Needs
1) Draft Picks and Prospects – Read: Mid-to-late-round draft picks and C- or D-level prospects. Sorry, Rangers fans. This is not going to be an exciting deadline. This is the best you can hope for. Hold tight until the off-season and wait for GM Jeff Gorton to try to swing a blockbuster for a top-six center.