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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Pittsburgh Penguins

at CDT | by 2 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Current Cap Hit: $80,181,842 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D John Marino (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Marino: $850K

Marino’s rookie season was a strong one as he quickly worked his way into a spot in Pittsburgh’s top four, logging over 20 minutes a game while finishing second in team scoring among defensemen.  If he even simply repeats that performance, he could easily double his base salary next offseason and if he takes a step forward, this deal could get pricey in a hurry.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Zach Aston-Reese ($1MM, RFA)
F Teddy Blueger ($750K, RFA)
D Cody Ceci ($1.25MMMM, UFA)
F Mark Jankowski ($700K, RFA)
F Evan Rodrigues ($700K, UFA)
F Colton Sceviour ($1.2MM, UFA)

Sceviour was the secondary part of the trade that sent Patric Hornqvist to Florida this offseason.  His output has dipped in recent years and while he’s an effective enough player to earn another deal beyond this one, he may have to take a small dip as the depth players get squeezed more and more in this cap environment.  Aston-Reese had a quiet year despite an uptick in ice time.  His role could be lessened this season and if that happens, his arbitration eligibility could wind up working against him if he doesn’t sign early.  Blueger’s first full NHL season was a good one and he played his way into a role beyond the fourth line fairly quickly.  Unless his offensive game improves significantly, he won’t be in a position to land a big raise but he could come close to doubling his current rate.  Jankowski and Rodrigues both were non-tendered by Calgary and Toronto respectively and will look to rebuild some value after having limited interest on the open market.  Both have earned bigger deals in the past but will need to find that form again if they want to get anything beyond a minimum contract or close to it a year from now.

Ceci is coming off of a tough season with Toronto which saw him take more than a $3MM pay cut.  Expectations will be lower here and he’ll be in a role that’s a better fit for him.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see him earn a bit of a raise on his next contract but it won’t come close to what he has made in recent years with AAV’s over $4MM.

Two Years Remaining

G Casey DeSmith ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Kasperi Kapanen ($3.2MM, RFA)
F Sam Lafferty ($750K, UFA)
D Kris Letang ($7.25MM, UFA)
F Evgeni Malkin ($9.5MM, UFA)
F Jared McCann ($2.94MM, RFA)
D Juuso Riikola ($1.15MM, UFA)
F Bryan Rust ($3.5MM, UFA)

Malkin’s name is certainly the headliner among the forwards in this group.  He has shown himself to be capable of being a number one center but hasn’t had the opportunity to play in that role very often for obvious reasons.  If he wanted to go somewhere where he could have that role, he could probably get a multi-year deal close to his current rate, even with the 35-plus designation which carries some extra risks for teams.  However, if he wants to remain with the Penguins (and at this point, that seems like a relatively safe bet), they will almost certainly ask him to take at least a small dip in pay in an effort to try to keep as much of their core together as possible.

GM Jim Rutherford paid a fairly steep price to bring Kapanen back into the fold and the early indication is that he will have a much bigger role than he did with Toronto.  If he succeeds in that spot, he could push for a $5MM or more contract, especially being a year away from UFA eligibility at that time.  Rust very quietly had a career year last season.  After hovering around the 30-point mark the previous three seasons, he averaged more than a point per game and finished second on the team in scoring behind Malkin.  If he reverts back to being the secondary scorer he had been, he’ll be in tough to match his current rate but if his 2019-20 production was a sign of things to come, then he’ll be adding a couple of million per season.  McCann wound up being scratched at one point in the postseason which gives you an idea of how his year ended.  If they wind up keeping Malkin around, his $3.38MM qualifying offer might be too rich for Pittsburgh.  Lafferty figures to play a limited role and they’ll be looking to keep that roster spot close to the league minimum down the road.

Letang has been a fixture on their back end for 13 seasons and can still put up the points at a high-end rate.  However, staying healthy has been an issue and he’ll also carry the 35-plus designation on his next deal.  As a result, it’s hard to see him coming in higher than this rate on his next contract.  If injuries are an issue between now and then, he’s a candidate to go year-to-year with bonuses but a multi-year pact at a slightly lower cap hit could also be appealing.  Rikkola has been a depth option the last couple of years (even spending some time on the wing) and if he stays in that role for the next two, he won’t be in a spot to command a raise.

DeSmith was supposed to be the backup last season but plans changed quickly and instead he spent the year in the minors.  With Matt Murray now gone, he’ll return to the number two role.  As we’ve seen with backups in recent years, those that are above average can still land a pretty good contract and that will certainly be his target if he gets the opportunity to play more than a handful of games here and there.

Three Years Remaining

D Brian Dumoulin ($4.1MM, UFA)
G Tristan Jarry ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Jason Zucker ($5.5MM, UFA)

Zucker was brought in to add another scoring weapon on the wing although the pandemic and quick exit in the bubble means he hasn’t had much of a chance to establish himself.  He did well in limited action and will need to be around the 25-30-goal mark to have a shot at a raise on his next deal.

Dumoulin has never been a big point-producer but has been a key anchor in the defensive end.  However, the willingness to pay a high price for that type of player isn’t as high now in this environment so while he’s undoubtedly a big part of their back end, it’s hard to see him getting any significant boost on his next contract.

Jarry went from being available in a trade last year to their sure-fire starter this season after a strong 2019-20 campaign.  He’s still inexperienced which is why they basically opted for a second bridge deal and by the time this contract is up, they’ll know if he’s their goalie of the long-term future that will earn a somewhat substantial raise closer to the $6MM mark or so or if he’s better off in a lesser (and lower-priced) spot.

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What Your Team Is Thankful For: Florida Panthers

at CDT | by Leave a Comment

We’ve now made it past Thanksgiving and the holiday season is right around the corner. Like the last few years, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for but this year comes with a bit of a change. Normally teams would have an idea of where their season was heading, coming up on the one-quarter mark with mountains of statistics to analyze. Instead, in this unprecedented year, the season hasn’t even begun. We’ll still take a look at what each group is excited about and what they could hope for once the calendar turns to 2021.

What are the Panthers most thankful for?

The Pittsburgh Penguins front office.

Getting Patric Hornqvist is nice, but the real magic this offseason for Florida was ridding themselves of Mike Matheson’s contract without having to really sweeten the pot. The team moved Matheson and his huge contract up to Pittsburgh after his play had fallen off a cliff, meaning their salary commitments past the 2022-23 season now lie only with Aaron Ekblad and Sergei Bobrovsky. Sure, Matheson might somehow turn his career around, but he is still set to carry a cap hit of $4.875MM through the 2025-26 season, one of the worst anchors in the league at the moment. Even at his best, that deal provides no room for excess value, meaning it’s deadly for a team like the Panthers who are still trying to push into a contention window.

Who are the Panthers most thankful for?

GM Bill Zito.

So far, so good for the new general manager, who has rid the books of some unhealthy cap and landed a few nice short-term bargains over the last few months. Alexander Wennberg agreed to sign a one-year deal in Florida while the team also landed Markus Nutivaara for almost nothing in a trade with his old team. There is certainly a lot more work to be done, but Zito appears to be turning things in the right direction.

The next big test for the executive will come quickly, as after this season Aleksander Barkov is eligible for an extension. With his bargain deal coming to an end after the 2021-22 season, leaving him an unrestricted free agent, Zito has to get to work on a new contract as soon as possible. The face of the franchise, Barkov will still be only 26 when he could potentially hit the market and a target for every team in the league.

What would the Panthers be even more thankful for?

The return of Bobrovsky.

There is not a single thing that could help the Panthers more than a return to form for Bobrovsky, who posted just a .900 in 50 appearances last season. That’s completely unacceptable for a goaltender making $10MM per season, even if the defense in front of him was not up to snuff. That defense should be improved (somewhat), so the excuses will start to run out for the 32-year-old superstar this season if he can’t get back to at least acceptable levels. One of only 22 goaltenders to ever win the Vezina Trophy more than once, Bobrovsky only has himself to blame if that save percentage doesn’t rebound.

If it does though and Bobrovsky can get anywhere close to the .931 that won him the award in 2017, the Panthers would suddenly become a real contender in the new makeshift divisions. Sure, they still have to deal with their state rival in the Tampa Bay Lightning, but perhaps getting away from the other top Atlantic Division teams for a few months will do them some good.

What should be on the Panthers’ holiday wish list?

Goal scoring.

Wennberg is a fine player to bring in as a reclamation project, and Hornqvist will likely improve their net-front powerplay presence, but it’s hard to really expect either player to fill the shoes of Mike Hoffman and Evgenii Dadonov. The team’s two top goal scorers in 2019-20 became unrestricted free agents and though Hoffman hasn’t actually signed yet, Dadonov inked a deal in Ottawa already. Pulling ~60 goals out of the lineup all at once can be devastating and the Panthers will need to find them elsewhere if they want to compete. Remember the team also traded away Vincent Trocheck at the deadline, removing another one of their best offensive weapons.

Perhaps they can still look outside the organization for a mercenary or two, but the offensive development may have to come from internal sources. There will be more than enough opportunity for a young player like Owen Tippett to show he can fill that goal-scoring role, but nothing is guaranteed at this point. Henrik Borgstrom, another top Panthers prospect, doesn’t even have a contract for the upcoming season yet and is currently in Finland playing with HIFK (or, waiting for the Liiga season to resume, more accurately). If the team doesn’t add firepower and doesn’t get a return to form from Bobrovsky, it could be a long season even with the additions on defense.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Philadelphia Flyers

at CDT | by 7 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Philadelphia Flyers

Current Cap Hit: $79,238,852 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Joel Farabee (two years, $925K)
F German Rubtsov (one year, $894K)
F Morgan Frost (two years, $863K)
G Carter Hart (one year, $731K)

Potential Bonuses
Farabee: $500K
Rubtsov: $425K
Hart: 83K
Total: $1.1MM

One thing the Philadelphia Flyers have a lot of is balance, which includes quite a few impressive young players on entry-level deals. While he may not be paid the most of the entry-level players, the guy that is likely next to cash in is goaltender Carter Hart. Just 22, the young netminder has been impressive in two seasons. Perhaps the statistic that stands out the most is his numbers when at home. Hart posted a dominant 20-3-2 record at home with a 1.63 GAA and a .943 GAA. Unfortunately his road record wasn’t as good with a 3.04 GAA and a .896 save percentage — something he must work on. Regardless, he will likely command quite a bit when the Flyers try to lock him up to an extension.

Farabee and Frost are two young prospects who could make their impact known as soon as next season. Farabee played in 52 games last year for Philadelphia, scoring eight goals and 21 points, but he could be primed for a breakout season. Frost is the next prospect up. He appeared in 20 games last year, scoring two goals and seven points, but should see more regular time in Philadelphia’s lineup this season and could be a significant contributor down the road.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Travis Sanheim ($3.25MM, RFA)
D Erik Gustafsson ($3MM, UFA)
F Scott Laughton ($2.3MM, UFA)
F Michael Raffl ($1.6MM, UFA)
G Brian Elliott ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Nolan Patrick ($874K, RFA)
D Samuel Morin ($700K, RFA)

Sanheim has established himself as a top-four defender on a very young defense and should continue to get better. With the loss of defenseman Matt Niskanen to retirement, Sanheim will be expected to take that next step and become a dominant defeneman for the Flyers. He scored eight goals and 25 points last season, but could be primed for a bigger year. Gustafsson was brought in to fill in the holes on the team’s defense. The 28-year-old was coming off a 60-point season in 2018-19, but failed to duplicate that with either with the Blackhawks or the Flames after he was traded at the deadline.

Laughton has been a useful bottom-six player over the last few years. The 26-year-old provides the team a combination of some offense and some physicality, something the team needs. Laughton finished last season with 13 goals and 27 points in 49 games last season as well as 109 hits, but more importantly stepped up in the playoffs, putting up five goals and nine points in 15 games. The 32-year-old Raffl is much the same, putting up eight goals and 20 points in 58 games with 96 hits.

The most interesting name might be Patrick, who missed the entire 2019-20 season with a migraine disorder. The Flyers hope that the No. 2 overall pick in 2017 can pick up where he left off and eventually become the dominant player he once was despite struggling through a myriad of injuries in the past. When healthy, Patrick can be a dominating, playmaking center. The team hopes to insert him into the lineup as the team’s third-line center to start and see where he goes from there.

Elliott, who has been mentoring Hart ever since Hart arrived, struggled last year and the team hopes the 35-year-old can find his game this season. If not, the team will likely move on from him in a year.

Two Years Remaining

F Claude Giroux ($8.25MM, UFA)
F Sean Couturier ($4.33MM, UFA)
D Justin Braun ($1.8MM, UFA)
D Robert Hagg ($1.6MM, UFA)
F Nicolas Aube-Kubel ($1.08MM, RFA)

Giroux has been one of the most dominant Flyers players in their history with 257 goals and 810 points over his career. He put up 21 goals last year in just 69 games, but did see a decline in his overall points as his point totals went from 85 to 53. At 32 years of age, it’s likely that we’ll see the start of a decline in the next few years, but with two years remaining on his contract, the team does have some relief coming down the road. If Giroux can bounce back this year, he’ll remain a viable player for a few more years and can eventually be signed to a cheaper deal as he reaches his mid-30’s.

Couturier, on the other hand, is also coming off a disappointing season. After two straight 30-goal seasons, he struggled with just 22 goals in 69 games. Of course, had he played the entire 82 games, he may have come close to those goal-scoring numbers, but the 28-year-old should continue to post good numbers for the next few years and his contract looks like a value deal if he can get back to 30 goals once again.

Braun provides some much-needed veteran depth on the blueline after the Flyers traded a second and third-round pick to acquire him last offseason. They still get two more years out of him. Hagg also provides key depth despite an injury plagued 2019-20.

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Who Your Team Is Thankful For: Edmonton Oilers

at CDT | by 4 Comments

We’ve now made it past Thanksgiving and the holiday season is right around the corner. Like the last few years, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for but this year comes with a bit of a change. Normally teams would have an idea of where their season was heading, coming up on the one-quarter mark with mountains of statistics to analyze. Instead, in this unprecedented year, the season hasn’t even begun. We’ll still take a look at what each group is excited about and what they could hope for once the calendar turns to 2021.

What are the Oilers most thankful for?

A team that looks to be deep enough to compete near the top.

The team may have two of the best players in the league (see below), but the biggest problem the team has dealt with over the past few years was their lack of top-six and even top-nine depth to assist those two players. However, while the the Oilers have always had Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, he has finally found a place next to Leon Draisaitl and Kailer Yamamoto on the second line. That trio was dominant in the second half of the season once the line was put together.

Edmonton also added several veterans to the roster, adding James Neal a year ago, who showed he wasn’t done yet. They then added Tyler Ennis at the trade deadline and signed Kyle Turris this offseason, giving the team quite a bit of veteran depth to fill in gaps in the middle six.

Perhaps the most interesting player to keep an eye on will be former top prospect Jesse Puljujarvi, who finally returned to Edmonton after playing last year in the Liiga after he left the team due to his lack of playing time. The fourth-overall pick from the 2016 draft hasn’t panned out yet, but is only 22 years old and returns to the NHL with plenty of confidence after being one of the top scorers in Finland’s top pro league.

Who are the Oilers most thankful for?

Two Hart Trophy winners in Connor McDavid and now Draisaitl.

Few teams can boast they have one Hart Trophy winner, let alone two and both McDavid and Draisaitl are still so young that they can still get better. McDavid had put together three straight 100-point seasons and would have done that last year (he had 97 points), but the pandemic stopped that streak. Nevertheless, he is one of the best, if not the best player in the NHL.

Now Draisaitl, who dominated in 2018-19 with a 50-goal, 105-point season, posted another impressive year, scoring 45 and leading the league with 110 points in just 71 games. The two finally were split onto separate lines on even strength, but still dominated together on the power play, giving the team the top-ranked power play in the league by a whopping 29.5 percent, more than four percent better than the second place power play team.

Those two players only make it easier for general manager Ken Holland to build a solid team around sooner than later.

What would the Oilers be even more thankful for?

A return to form of Tyson Barrie.

With an injury to Oscar Klefbom that could keep him out for the entirety of the 2020-21 season, Holland went out and inked Barrie to a one-year deal after the once highly-touted blueliner suffered through a disastrous season with the Toronto Maple Leafs a year ago. Toronto brought in Barrie via trade in hopes of shoring up their deficient defense, but the offensive-minded defenseman never fit into the Maple Leafs’ system and even saw his offensive numbers drop like a stone. Barrie was coming off  two straight 14-goal, 50+ point seasons in Colorado, but managed just five goals and 39 points.

However, in Edmonton with a prove-it deal in hand (as well as no Klefbom to take away power play minutes), Barrie should get every opportunity to find his game and return his status as a top offensive defenseman.

What should be on the Oilers holiday wish list?

A goalie upgrade.

If there is one area of weakness in Edmonton, it’s in net. The team is hamstrung under Mikko Koskinen, who is being paid as a starter, but is a tandem goalie at best. The team had hoped to pry Jacob Markstrom away from Vancouver in free agency, but were outbid by the Calgary Flames. Instead of grabbing at another free-agent, the team opted to sign Mike Smith to another one-year deal. However, the team might be better off searching the trade market at some point and fixing that goaltending situation later in the season, depending on the team’s success this year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Rangers

at CDT | by 4 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New York Rangers

Current Cap Hit: $76,670,633 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Filip Chytil (one year, $894K)
D Adam Fox (two years, $925K)
F Julien Gauthier (one year, $863K)
F Brett Howden (one year, $863K)
F Kaapo Kakko (two years, $925K)
F Alexis Lafreniere (three years, $925K)
D Ryan Lindgren (one year, $925K)
G Igor Shesterkin (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Chytil: $350K
Fox: $850K
Gauthier: $300K
Kakko: $2.65MM
Lafreniere: $2.85MM
Lindgren: $212.5K
Shesterkin: $2.85MM
Total: $10.0625MM

It’s not very often that a team basically has more than a third of their roster on entry-level deals but that’s the case here.  The total bonuses actually exceed the 7.5% bonus cushion so there is a dead cap charge of $3.95MM on the books as things stand and it’s extremely rare for a team to be in that situation but that just shows how many talented youngsters the Rangers have.

Lafreniere was the top pick of the draft back in October and is expected to step into a top-six role right away (or very soon after).  As someone that should make a sizable impact right away, he could easily jump into the $7MM or more range on his next contract.  Kakko, the second-overall pick in 2019, had a difficult rookie season.  That could play a role in talks for his next deal depending on how 2020-21 goes.  If he takes off, then like Lafreniere, he could bypass the bridge contract altogether and go straight to top money.  If he doesn’t, then the likelihood of a short-term second deal becomes much stronger.

Chytil could be their second center of the future but it will take a couple more years for him to have a shot at jumping into that role.  It’s difficult to envision them paying him top-six money before he really establishes himself so a bridge deal is likely.  The same can be said for Howden who established himself as a regular in their bottom six but he’s unlikely to command a significant raise if his production is similar this year.  Gauthier was brought in from Carolina in a late-season trade but has been a fourth liner almost exclusively in his limited NHL action.  He’s in the type of situation where a small dip in pay to get a one-way deal or a higher AHL salary is the standard unless he plays himself into a more prominent role.  Vitali Kravtsov (two years, $925K plus $850K in bonuses) will stay in the KHL through the end of their season but is an option to be recalled once that season comes to an end though their bonus situation may affect those plans.

Fox had an impressive rookie season and narrowly missed out on being a finalist for the Calder Trophy.  42 points from a defenseman is impressive in any year and even if he ‘only’ produces around that mark the next couple of years instead of increasing his point-per-game output, he’s a safe bet for a sizable raise already.  Lindgren has a limited ceiling but fits in well on the third pairing.  Another season in a regular role should give him a bit of a raise but without arbitration rights, he’ll be limited in what he can get next summer.  K’Andre Miller (three years, $925K plus $300K in bonuses) could also play himself into the mix at some point.

Shesterkin still has very limited NHL experience (just a dozen games) but he enters 2020-21 as the presumptive starter.  He made an immediate impact to help carry New York down the stretch last season and if he picks up where he left off, GM Jeff Gorton may try to work out a long-term pact.  If not, a one or two-year deal that allows him to further establish himself before trying to command number one money makes sense.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Pavel Buchnevich ($3.25MM, RFA)
D Jack Johnson ($1.15MM, UFA)
D Brendan Smith ($4.35MM, UFA)

Buchnevich has shown flashes of top-end offensive play throughout his career but inconsistency has been an issue although he did improve on that last year while setting a new benchmark in points with 46.  Assuming he produces at a similar per-game rate this season, the Rangers shouldn’t have much issue tendering a $3MM qualifying offer although in this market, he may not be in great shape to get much more than that.

Smith’s contract has been burdensome for New York basically ever since he signed it as in the first year, he was sent to the minors.  He has done well to carve out a small niche role as a blueliner that can also hold his own on the wing but while that might help him earn another contract, it would be for about a quarter of what he’s making now.  Johnson was bought out by Pittsburgh this offseason and quickly signed with the Rangers.  He’s likely to have a limited role and even if he does rebuild his value a little bit, he shouldn’t be able to command much more a year from now.

Two Years Remaining

D Anthony Bitetto ($737.5K, UFA)
D Anthony DeAngelo ($4.8MM, RFA)
G Alexandar Georgiev ($2.425MM, RFA)
F Brendan Lemieux ($1.55MM, RFA)
F Kevin Rooney ($750K, UFA)
F Ryan Strome ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Mika Zibanejad ($5.35MM, UFA)

It took a bit of time but Zibanejad has emerged as a legitimate number one center and actually beat his 2018-19 point total (74) despite playing in 27 fewer games last season.  While he has eight full NHL seasons under his belt already, he’s still just 27 and will hit the open market at 29 if the two sides can’t agree on an extension by then.  The financial situation league-wide probably won’t have fully recovered by then but at the same time, top centers rarely become available.  If Zibanejad, a top defensive forward on top of his newly-found offensive prowess, can hover around a 70-point pace for these next two years, he could add $3MM to $4MM to his AAV on his next deal.  Without a top option in the system, this will be a priority case for Gorton when he’s eligible for an extension next season.

Strome is coming off of a career year but even that wasn’t enough to guarantee him a qualifying offer as a decision came down to the final few minutes before it was tendered.  They settled on this contract to avoid arbitration and add a year of team control which gives Chytil more time to develop.  Given that he has struggled offensively with two previous teams, he’ll need to show this was more than a one-time bump in output to have a shot at besting this contract two years from now.  Lemieux doesn’t have the offensive upside to play in the top six but he has been an effective physical player which earned him a two-year deal this offseason.  Until he produces more consistently though, his earnings upside will be limited to not much higher than this.  Rooney was brought in from rival New Jersey in free agency and should battle for a spot on the fourth line.  That’s a roster spot that will need to stay at or close to the minimum in future years.

DeAngelo didn’t have much leverage a year ago when he basically had to sign a one-year, show-me deal.  He showed the Rangers and the rest of the league plenty as he was among the top offensive blueliners in the league, earning himself nearly a $4MM raise in the process.  He has played his way into a core role on the team and should be well-positioned for another notable jump if he performs at a similar level the next two seasons as he’ll be a year out from UFA eligibility when his next contract begins.  Bitetto is the favorite for the seventh spot on the back end and like Rooney’s situation, it’s a roster slot that will need to remain at a similar price tag whether it’s him or someone else in that role.

Georgiev has done enough to show that there’s still some upside but it’s fair to wonder if he is viewed as a number one goalie elsewhere.  He’s going to have a hard time commanding number one money if he’s behind Shesterkin but the good news is that top backups can still push for a deal around $1MM higher than his current one.  Assuming their goaltending situation goes according to plan, that’s what Georgiev’s next contract target should be.

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What Your Team Is Thankful For: Detroit Red Wings

at CDT | by 3 Comments

We’ve now made it past Thanksgiving and the holiday season is right around the corner. Like the last few years, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for but this year comes with a bit of a change. Normally teams would have an idea of where their season was heading, coming up on the one-quarter mark with mountains of statistics to analyze. Instead, in this unprecedented year, the season hasn’t even begun. We’ll still take a look at what each group is excited about and what they could hope for once the calendar turns to 2021.

What are the Red Wings most thankful for?

Sweden’s development system.

Detroit as an organization has always been known for its willingness to look outside of North America to find the best players in the world, and while that certainly is no longer an attribute limited to just them, it continues to this day in the team’s drafting strategy. Sweden, in particular, has stood out as a proving ground for the Red Wings eventual picks, with four players picked directly from the Frolunda organization over just the past two years.

That group is led of course by fourth-overall pick Lucas Raymond, who likely won’t be in Sweden much longer, but also includes Theodor Niederbach, Elmer Soderblom, and Gustav Berglund. Other Swedes picked in recent years include William Wallinder, Albert Johansson, and Albin Grewe, all selected with picks in the top 66. When the World Juniors hits the screen later this month, don’t be surprised if you hear “Red Wings draft pick” often when watching a Sweden game.

Who are the Red Wings most thankful for?

Steve Yzerman.

At the head of that draft strategy is Yzerman, who has experienced first hand throughout his playing and managing career the kind of impact international players can have. Though the team hasn’t experienced much on-ice success since he took over from Ken Holland in 2019, it’s hard to argue with the job he’s done so far in the rebuild.

The Red Wings prospect system is packed with high-end talent, they have another six picks in the first three rounds of 2021 and the roster is unencumbered by any expensive, long-term deals. In fact, only Anthony Mantha, who received a new deal last month, is signed through the 2023-24 season. Yzerman can form this roster in whichever direction he chooses, but names like Raymond and Moritz Seider are a great place to start.

What would the Red Wings be even more thankful for?

A breakout from one of their older prospects.

There was talent in the system even before Yzerman arrived, too. It’s hard to know where 21-year-old Michael Rasmussen’s career trajectory is pointed at this juncture after a somewhat disappointing first few years, but if he ever did reach his ceiling (or perhaps break through it with his 6’6″ frame) he could be a dynamic presence in the middle of the lineup.

So too could Filip Zadina and Joe Veleno, the two players Detroit selected in the first round of 2018. Both have immense upside as a top-end sniper and two-way center respectively, but neither has quite followed through on that potential just yet. It’s certainly not time to give up on either one, but if there is a breakout coming the Detroit rebuild could be accelerated considerably.

What should be on the Red Wings holiday wish list?

Even more draft picks.

This train is headed in the right direction, but there might be one last year of pain for the Red Wings with the roster as currently presented, meaning one last collection of picks would do the team good. Darren Helm, Valtteri Filppula, Luke Glendening, Bobby Ryan, Sam Gagner, Marc Staal, Patrik Nemeth, Jon Merrill, Alex Biega, and Jonathan Bernier are all scheduled to be unrestricted free agents after this season—you can bet a good number of them won’t finish the year in Detroit.

It’s not that these kinds of players will bring back a huge package of assets, but every third or fourth-round pick they land for an aging-but-capable veteran means another lottery ticket that could turn into something great. (Don’t look now, but Frans Nielsen, Robby Fabbri, Vladislav Namestnikov, Danny DeKeyser, Troy Stecher, and Thomas Greiss will all be UFAs in 2022 and could face similar fates.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Islanders

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New York Islanders

Current Cap Hit: $77,594,163 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Noah Dobson (two years, $894K)

Potential Bonuses
Dobson: $537.5K

Dobson was a victim of the NHL-CHL agreement that prevented him from being eligible to play in the AHL.  He clearly had done all he needed to at the major junior level but he also wasn’t quite ready for primetime duty in the top league either.  That might actually help the Islanders when it comes to his second deal as while he burned the first season of his contract, he wasn’t an impact player by any stretch.  He’s undoubtedly a big part of their future plans but he’s unlikely to break the bank with his next contract as things stand.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Anthony Beauvillier ($2.1MM, RFA)
F Casey Cizikas ($3.35MM, UFA)
F Michael Dal Colle ($700K, RFA)
D Adam Pelech ($1.6MM, RFA)
G Ilya Sorokin ($2MM, RFA)

Cizikas has been a very effective energy player for several years.  However, this is a hefty price tag for a player that still spends some time on the fourth line and rarely sees action in the top six.  These types of players – while still effective – are going to feel the squeeze of the flattened Upper Limit so it’s hard to see him coming close to what he’s making now on his next deal let alone a raise.  Beauvillier had a career year last season and has become a consistent secondary scorer.  Between that and arbitration rights, he could have a shot at doubling that price tag if he takes another step forward in 2021-22.  Dal Colle had a limited role last year which only earned him a one-way contract.  He’ll be owed a minimum-salary raise at a minimum next offseason but unless he plays his way into a bigger role, he probably won’t get much more than that.

Pelech is coming off an injury-plagued year but emerged as an under-the-radar top-four defenseman.  If he maintains that role, he’ll be well-positioned to earn a decent raise and with him being one year away from UFA eligibility, GM Lou Lamoriello will likely be looking to buy out a UFA-eligible season or two as well.

Sorokin has yet to play in the NHL but managed to get this high of a salary after burning his entry-level contract while being ineligible to play in the postseason bubble.  He enters this season as the backup which may limit his short-term earnings upside but at the same time, he’s their goalie of the future and is only two years away from being eligible for unrestricted free agency.  He could be one of the more interesting RFA cases next summer as a result.

Two Years Remaining

D Johnny Boychuk ($6MM, UFA)
F Cal Clutterbuck ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Thomas Hickey ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Ross Johnston ($1MM, UFA)
F Leo Komarov ($3MM, UFA)
D Nick Leddy ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Ryan Pulock ($5MM, UFA)

At one point, Clutterbuck was part of New York’s vaunted fourth line, a unit that is now more overpaid than it is vaunted.  They’re still effective but this is another overpayment in their bottom six.  So too is Komarov who isn’t able to hold his own in bigger minutes like he was while playing for Lamoriello in Toronto.  Neither player should come close to matching their current contracts on the open market two years from now.  Johnston isn’t an every-game player but his price tag is at least more appropriate for someone in that role.

While Boychuk’s playing days are over, he’ll remain on the books until his contract expires.  He’s eligible for LTIR and the Islanders will need it to be cap-compliant once everyone is signed.  Leddy’s deal seemed like a bargain early after he was acquired from Chicago but as his production has dipped the last couple of years, that isn’t the case as much now.  It’s not a massive overpayment either as he’s still a top-four option but barring him rediscovering his offensive touch, he is another veteran eyeing a dip in pay.  That will also be the case for Hickey who spent last year in the minors and only is being mentioned here since they’ll still face a sizable cap charge if he’s sent back down this season.

The same can’t be said for Pulock.  The two-year term on his most recent deal certainly raised some eyebrows as it walks him straight to unrestricted free agency in the prime of his career.  He very quietly has established himself as their top defenseman and assuming he continues on his current trajectory, it’s quite possible that he adds another couple of million per year to his next cap hit.  That the Isles opted for this contract shouldn’t be perceived as an indictment on Pulock but rather a reality of who still needs a contract (more on him later).  This was the cheapest way to get him signed and while they’ll benefit from it for the next two years, they’ll pay for it in 2022 when he’ll cost a fair bit more to re-sign.

Three Years Remaining

F Andrew Ladd ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Scott Mayfield ($1.45MM, UFA)
G Semyon Varlamov ($5MM, UFA)

Ladd is yet another of the terrible 2016 UFA contracts that were handed out.  While he was a top-six forward when the deal was signed, he isn’t now and spent most of last season in the minors.  That may be the case again next season and to make matters worse, the structure of the deal makes it virtually buyout-proof.

Mayfield’s five-year extension came with some risk considering he didn’t have even one year’s worth of NHL experience under his belt but it has proven to be a prudent move as he has since established himself as a capable regular.  His offensive production (or lack of) will limit his earnings upside but he should still get a fair-sized raise in his first crack at the open market.

Varlamov had a good first season with the Islanders and eventually wrestled away the number one job.  However, Sorokin is their goalie of the future and the expectation is that he’ll eventually take over the top role from Varlamov.  As a result, it’s fair to wonder if he finishes this team with them; if he does, he’ll probably have a hard time commanding similar money from a 1B or backup role.

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What Your Team Is Thankful For: Dallas Stars

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We’ve now made it past Thanksgiving and the holiday season is right around the corner. Like the last few years, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for but this year comes with a bit of a change. Normally teams would have an idea of where their season was heading, coming up on the one-quarter mark with mountains of statistics to analyze. Instead, in this unprecedented year, the season hasn’t even begun. We’ll still take a look at what each group is excited about and what they could hope for once the calendar turns to 2021.

What are the Stars most thankful for?

Last season’s Western Conference title.

Yes, ultimately losing in the Stanley Cup Final typically isn’t something to be thankful about but it has changed the perspective of their program in its entirety.  This was a team that had been viewed by many as potentially vulnerable, offensively deficient heading into the bubble with a veteran core that didn’t exactly have a good regular season.  Were they on the way down?

Clearly, the answer was no.  Instead, those players produced at better rates than they did during the regular season when a lot of times, the opposite occurred.  Anton Khudobin stepped up in Ben Bishop’s absence, showing that they have one of the top tandems in the league (another thing they’re certainly thankful for).  Now weeks away from the anticipated start of training camp, the Stars are viewed as a team that’s capable of winning now.  Not many were saying that during the pandemic-induced layoff; their run to the Final shows that this core still has something left in the tank.

Who are the Stars most thankful for?

Naturally, after speaking positively about their veteran core, let’s now go in the exact opposite direction and look at their youngest player in Miro Heiskanen.  There are young defensemen that teams hope can one day ascend to that number one role.  The 21-year-old is two years into his career and is already at that level.  He’s coming off of a stellar postseason where he led the team in scoring and the sky is seemingly the limit.

Dallas is also certainly thankful that he’s still on his entry-level contract that restricts him to a base salary of $925K (including his signing bonus).  It’s rare to have a number one blueliner making less than a million dollars in base pay and it’s the type of high-value contract that has allowed them to keep the core of the team intact for another run in the postseason.  That will soon change as that deal is up at the end of the season but for now, their best defenseman just happens to be their lowest-paid regular.

What would the Stars be even more thankful for?

Further delaying the start to next season.  That may sound crazy but they are down their starting goaltender in Bishop and their top center in Tyler Seguin with both players expected to be out into March at a minimum.  The fewer games they play without those two, the better off they should be in the standings, especially with Khudobin having relatively limited experience as an every-game starter.

What should be on the Stars’ holiday wish list?

More scoring depth.

One way of looking at things is that they scored enough to make their way through the Western Conference in the playoffs.  The glass half-empty viewpoint mentions that they were 28th in the league in offense last season with their goaltending allowing the second-fewest goals that helped keep them in the top half of the conference.  It’s true that they’ve been able to keep their core intact but at the same time, they didn’t really add to it.  There’s room for optimism for some of their younger players to take steps forward and grab a bigger share of the offensive pie but they’d undoubtedly love to add another veteran with a track record of consistent production.

They’ll have LTIR space to play with early on due to the injuries of Bishop and Seguin while Stephen Johns’ availability is uncertain but their cap room when everyone is healthy is minimal so GM Jim Nill will have his work cut out for him to try to add to their attack.  It’d go a long way if he could find a way to do so.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: New Jersey Devils

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New Jersey Devils

Current Cap Hit: $64,304,999 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Jesper Boqvist (two years, $925K)
F Jack Hughes (two years, $925K)
F Janne Kuokkanen (one year, $812K)
F Michael McLeod (one year, $863K)

Potential Bonuses

Hughes: $2.85MM
Kuokkanen: $32.5K
McLeod: $500K
Total: $3.3825MM

Hughes, the top pick from the 2019 draft, didn’t have a great rookie season but was also making the jump from the USHL which was basically uncharted waters.  A lot can change over the next couple of years and if he takes the big step forward offensively that many expect him to, he’ll be able to bypass a bridge deal and get a long-term, big-money deal.  Boqvist split last season between the Devils and AHL Binghamton which should have him in the mix for a spot on the fourth line but his offensive numbers will need to improve if he wants to make what he’s getting now on his second deal.  McLeod, a 2016 first-round pick, has struggled over his first two professional seasons but with the AHL likely to have an even shorter year than the NHL, keeping him up for an extended look may be best for his development.  Kuokkanen was an important part of the Sami Vatanen deal back at the deadline and it’s possible he’s in the mix for a spot at the end of the roster as well.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Connor Carrick ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Nikita Gusev ($4.5MM, UFA)
D Dmitry Kulikov ($1.15MM, UFA)
D Ryan Murray ($4.6MM, UFA)
F Kyle Palmieri ($4.65MM, UFA)
F Travis Zajac ($5.75MM, UFA)

While Palmieri isn’t the highest-paid player on this list, that won’t be the case for much longer.  Since joining the Devils, he has emerged as a consistent goal scorer, potting between 24 and 30 goals over his five seasons with the team.  While the current free agent market hasn’t been particularly kind to wingers this offseason, New Jersey is in a position where they can afford to pay above market value to ensure they keep him around and not lose a big part of their attack to free agency.  If he does make it to the open market though, he should have no shortage of suitors though how many will be able to afford him (a standard caveat that is going to apply for a few years for any UFA of note) remains to be seen.

Zajac has been a fixture in New Jersey’s lineup for the past 14 seasons but his time as a top-six center has come and gone.  With an abundance of younger options down the middle, it wouldn’t be surprising if he finds himself elsewhere in 2021-22 at about a third of what he costs now although GM Tom Fitzgerald could try to keep Zajac around in a mentor role as well.  Gusev had a bit of a shaky start to his NHL career last season but eventually became a productive player in their top six.  Given his limited track record, predicting his next contract is a bit trickier but he’ll need to improve on his offensive numbers to have a shot at a raise.

Murray was brought in as a cap dump from Columbus and lands in a good spot where he’ll help stabilize their top four, provided he can stay healthy.  That’s a huge if based on his career and even if he stays healthy this season, his history of being injured will certainly limit his market although Chris Tanev, an oft-injured blueliner, was able to still land a four-year, $18MM deal this offseason.  As things stand, that’s around what he should be targeting as things stand.  Carrick has had a limited role since joining the Devils and will likely be the sixth or seventh defender again.  That’s a high price tag for that spot on the depth chart and he’ll be hard-pressed to land that on his next deal.  Kulikov was overpaid with Winnipeg but he did log 20 minutes a game and hold his own last season.  This was a decent under the radar move for the Devils and he could have an opportunity to rebuild his value with them this coming season.

Two Years Remaining

D Will Butcher ($3.733MM, UFA)
G Corey Crawford ($3.9MM, UFA)
D P.K. Subban ($9MM, UFA)
F Miles Wood ($2.75MM, RFA)
F Pavel Zacha ($2.25MM, RFA)

Wood has seen his production taper off slightly the last couple of years and instead of looking like a possible top-six winger, he’s settled in as more of a third liner.  He’s still an effective player and is one of the quicker players in the league but he’s owed a $3.5MM qualifying offer when this deal is up and that price tag is looking a little high as things stand.  Zacha hasn’t lived up to his draft billing yet (sixth overall in 2015) but he has taken some small steps forward the last couple of years.  Long term, he probably profiles no higher than a third-line center at this point and a $3MM qualifier for someone in that role is justifiable although he probably doesn’t stand to make much more than that on his next deal.

Subban was brought in last offseason from Nashville as the Predators were looking to free up salary and his return to the Eastern Conference wasn’t the greatest.  He struggled to the worst offensive season of his career while he actually saw less ice time than he was getting with the Preds on a team where the expectation was that he’d be their top defender.  It’s a bad-value contract but one that they can afford.  He’s looking at a sizable dip in pay on his next contract.  Butcher also had a tough year offensively, putting up career-low numbers which isn’t ideal for someone billed as an offensive defenseman.  Getting back to his rookie production (44 points) is what he’ll need if he wants a shot at cashing in on a long-term deal.

Crawford signed with New Jersey in free agency after he and Chicago weren’t able to come to terms on a new deal with term being a sticking point.  At this point, he’s a short-term bridge goalie and a bit above-average for that role.  His contract reflects both of those factors and is a pretty good deal for the Devils.

Three Years Remaining

F Andreas Johnsson ($3.4MM, UFA)
D Damon Severson ($4.17MM, UFA)

Johnsson was also brought in as a cap casualty as Toronto needed to free up room this offseason.  He is coming off an injury-riddled season but has a 20-goal year under his belt.  Based on the market last offseason, he’s on a fair-market deal.

Severson’s contract is slowly turning into a bargain as he has settled in nicely on their top pairing and led the team in ATOI last season.  While his offensive game may not get to that next tier, it doesn’t need to in order to justify that price tag.  A top-pairing player making number four money is nice value even if he should be in a lower spot on the depth chart.

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What Your Team Is Thankful For: Columbus Blue Jackets

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We’ve now made it past Thanksgiving and the holiday season is right around the corner. Like the last few years, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for but this year comes with a bit of a change. Normally teams would have an idea of where their season was heading, coming up on the one-quarter mark with mountains of statistics to analyze. Instead, in this unprecedented year, the season hasn’t even begun. We’ll still take a look at what each group is excited about and what they could hope for once the calendar turns to 2021.

What are the Blue Jackets most thankful for?

Strong management and coaching.

If someone were to try and choose the best general manager/head coach tandem in the league to build a franchise around, the Blue Jackets duo of Jarmo Kekalainen and John Tortorella may be right up near the top. When Kekalainen took over in February of 2013, the Blue Jackets had experienced just a single winning season in their history. 2009 was their only time in the playoffs and they were swept out of the first round without winning a game.

In his seven full seasons running the front office, the team has put up six winning seasons and reached the playoffs five times. It’s no coincidence that four of those appearances have been since Tortorella took over partway through the 2015-16 season. Time and again when the rest of the hockey world zigs, Kekalainen zags, usually to strong results. Though the duo hasn’t been able to take Columbus to the promised land: “in Jarmo we trust.”

Who are the Blue Jackets most thankful for?

Pierre-Luc Dubois.

While acquiring Seth Jones in 2016 still may be Kekalainen’s most important move, the selection of Dubois later that year may be his most impressive. After Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine were off the board, everyone was expecting the Blue Jackets to select Jesse Puljujarvi with the third selection in the NHL entry draft. Puljujarvi was a consensus top prospect that was supposed to become a premier power forward in the league and to boot, he was Finnish just like Kekalainen. When the Blue Jackets GM strode to the podium and proudly selected Dubois instead, perhaps the hockey world should have been tipped off to what was coming for the eventual Edmonton Oilers forward.

Puljujarvi has struggled and fought his way to 37 points in 139 NHL games, while Dubois has become a legitimate first-line center in Columbus. While his offensive production still lags behind Matthew Tkachuk (selected sixth) and Alex DeBrincat (39th), there’s little doubt that Dubois is one of the most valuable players available from the 2016 draft and was a homerun selection for Kekalainen. The 22-year-old forward is still awaiting his next contract, but he showed exactly the type of player he could be this summer when he led Columbus with 10 points in 10 postseason games while averaging nearly 23 minutes a night.

What would the Blue Jackets be even more thankful for?

A commitment to Columbus.

Quite dramatically in the summer of 2019, the Blue Jackets were forced to say goodbye to Artemi Panarin, Sergei Bobrovsky, Matt Duchene, Ryan Dzingel, and others in free agency. Though the team is still strong and several of the deals signed by those players look troublesome, it still would have been huge for them to sell Panarin on the city of Columbus. It’s not that the Hart Trophy candidate ever spoke badly of the market, but when the bright lights of New York came calling, he left.

After being eliminated from the postseason that year, Kekalainen spoke to reporters including Michael Arace of the Columbus Dispatch about what he wanted, something that some could argue he still hasn’t found:

I think it’s important moving forward that we’re going to have guys that are proud to be Blue Jackets and proud to be living in Columbus and loving it here. That’s really important — that they bleed blue, or whatever you want to call it.

Yeah. The guys that want to be here are going to be here and the guys that don’t want to be here, good luck.

That commitment will be tested soon. After the 2021-22 season, Jones will be an unrestricted free agent and likely the most sought-after commodity on the market if he gets there. Max Domi, Boone Jenner, Dean Kukan, Elvis Merzlikins, and Joonas Korpisalo are all scheduled to hit the market at the same time. Zach Werenski will be an RFA. Will they decide they want to be in Columbus, or will Kekalainen be wishing more good luck?

What should be on the Blue Jackets’ holiday wish list?

Another weapon.

Just over a month ago, Gustav Nyquist underwent shoulder surgery and was given a five-to-six month recovery timeline. That means he won’t be available for a good chunk of this season, taking away Columbus’ second-highest scorer. Sure, Oliver Bjorkstrand looks like he’ll quickly take over that role (if not pass Dubois entirely) but the Blue Jackets need more at the offensive end of the rink.

Specifically, there’s no reason a team that boasts powerplay quarterbacks like Jones and Werenski should be near the bottom of the league in conversion. The Blue Jackets scored on just 16.4% of their man-advantage situations last season, fifth-worst in the league and unacceptable for a team looking to contend in the playoffs. They need to find a go-to option when a penalty is put on the board and there are still some available on the open market (cough–Mike Hoffman–cough). It doesn’t necessarily need to be a UFA mercenary, but something has to be added.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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