Offseason Checklist: Los Angeles Kings
The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league finished up after missing the playoffs. It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Los Angeles.
The rebuild has been in full effect for the Kings lately as they’ve missed the playoffs in three straight seasons while carrying one of the lowest payrolls in the league as they attempted to integrate several young players into their lineup with mixed results. GM Rob Blake has done well in terms of stockpiling quality young talent (particularly down the middle) but his veteran core, led by Drew Doughty, are hoping to see some win-now moves made. With their cap flexibility closing as their young players come off their entry-level deals, the time is right for Los Angeles to try to strike and accordingly, several items on their offseason checklist revolve around that idea.
Leverage Cap Space
This will be a common theme for the few teams that have cap room. The Kings have a little more than $20MM in space for next season and perhaps even more notably, few free agents of consequence (more on one of those later). While they have several contracts to hand out, some of those will be of the relatively cheap variety so they will have the ability to make a splash or two if they so desire. They’ll be a team to watch for in free agency or on the trade market as a result.
Defensive Upgrades
Doughty has been a fixture on the back end for Los Angeles for 13 years and with six years left on his contract that briefly was the richest for a defenseman in NHL history, it’s safe to say he’s going to be there for a while yet. However, while there are some supporting pieces in place, they don’t have the deepest of back ends and the rest of their players combined basically make what Doughty does ($11MM).
Matt Roy and Sean Walker have emerged as capable pieces but while both are signed for at least three more years, they’re more ideally suited to the bottom half of the depth chart. Michael Anderson had a nice rookie year and has top-four upside, a projection that could also be extended to Tobias Bjornfot though he is a little further away from getting there. They should be part of the picture for a while as well.
The depth thins out after that, however. Olli Maatta didn’t have a great year and considering he was brought in as a cap dump from Chicago, it’s unlikely that he’s part of their long-term plans. Kale Clague heads up a list of secondary prospects that could make it as role players.
At a minimum, one impact blueliner needs to be added to push most of their current ones down a spot on the depth chart to a more optimal position. Doughty has been a workhorse for many years now and logged more than 26 minutes a night again this season. But he’s 31 and can’t keep doing it alone for much longer. His request for Blake to add help is certainly understandable and he probably wouldn’t mind one bit if that help came at his position.
Determine Athanasiou’s Future
Last fall, one of the more intriguing non-tender decisions revolved around winger Andreas Athanasiou. Edmonton had just paid two draft picks for him at the trade deadline and needed to decide whether or not to tender a $3MM offer. They didn’t and he eventually landed in Los Angeles. The decision point is much lower this time around – $1.2MM – but the same question exists thanks to his arbitration eligibility.
Statistically speaking, it was a decent season for the 26-year-old. He had 10 goals and 13 assists in 47 games, good enough to finish sixth on the team in scoring. Extrapolated to a full season, that’s not far off a 20-goal pace which for $1.2MM is solid value. If it wasn’t for his ability to file for arbitration, this would be a no-brainer decision.
But he can file which makes things a lot harder. Given the fact that he was making $3MM just a year ago and has a recent 30-goal season under his belt from the 2018-19 campaign, there’s a strong likelihood that his camp will come in with a proposed contract even higher than that. Yes, it’s a different system from MLB in that an arbitrator doesn’t pick one number or the other but they often wind up close to the midpoint so even with the Kings coming in closer to the $1.5MM range, the midpoint where the deal would be more likely to fall might be higher than they’re comfortable going to.
As a result, this feels like a situation where there will need to be a concerted effort to get a deal done before the qualifying offer deadline. Athanasiou did well enough to earn a bit of a raise even in this marketplace but after not garnering a lot of interest on the open market (it took until late December for him to get this deal just as training camps were starting), sticking around with Los Angeles seems like a good idea for him.
Add Top-Six Wingers
Despite their poor finish, the Kings are in good shape down the middle. Anze Kopitar is still signed for three more years while Quinton Byfield, Alex Turcotte, Gabriel Vilardi, and Rasmus Kupari are all recent first-rounders. That’s a nice core to build around.
They aren’t anywhere near as deep on the wings, however. Alex Iafallo’s new four-year deal kicks in for 2021-22 so he’s one piece of the puzzle. After that, there aren’t any long-term pieces. Dustin Brown has had a bit of a late-career resurgence but he’s entering the final year of his contract next season and at 36, he’s not going to be around for much longer. Adrian Kempe, a former center, is better suited on the third line than the top six. The rest of their current roster are role players or question marks.
Some of the young centers may wind up on the wing and players like Arthur Kaliyev should be part of their future plans but that’s a short-term solution. If they’re going to add and use that cap space this summer, they’ll need to go outside the organization. Fortunately for Blake, there are options in free agency and with some teams needing to make cap-shedding trades this summer, there will be several upgrades available and it wouldn’t be surprising to see one or two of them in a Kings uniform next season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Cap information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Offseason Checklist: San Jose Sharks
The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league finished up after missing the playoffs and several more joining them following their first-round eliminations. It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at San Jose.
The Sharks were supposed to be a team that was set to contend. That was the idea behind the Erik Karlsson trade three years ago and while they did that in 2018-19, they missed the playoffs entirely a year ago and weren’t much better this season. Their veteran core struggled mightily and while they had a bit of cap space to add some mid-round picks at the deadline, they don’t have a lot of wiggle room to significantly shake up their core. With that in mind, GM Doug Wilson’s checklist for the summer is somewhat restricted with seven of their eight highest-paid players having some form of trade protection.
Donato Decision
One thing the flattened salary cap did last offseason was increase the number of players that were non-tendered to avoid salary arbitration. With the Upper Limit staying at $81.5MM, that’s likely to be the case again this summer. San Jose has one of those players in winger Ryan Donato who is owed a $2.15MM qualifying offer in July.
The Sharks acquired the 25-year-old in October for a third-round pick, a reasonable price to pay for someone that has shown some flashes of being an impact NHL forward, albeit mixed in with some inconsistent play as well. Unfortunately for Wilson, Donato provided more of the latter than the former, finishing up his year with six goals and 14 assists in 50 games while averaging 12:37 per game.
In a normal year, he’d be likely to get another opportunity given his previous stretches of being a productive top-six piece. Give him a small raise and go from there. But in this cap environment, it’s hard to envision Donato getting $2.15MM on the open market. Bottom-six forwards were largely squeezed out a year ago and with teams as cap-strapped now as they were then, that’s not likely to change.
As a result, if San Jose wants to retain Donato, they need to try to work out a new deal before free agency opens up in late July. Offer a cut in pay to see if he wants to stick around – that’s perfectly legal despite the qualifier that’s owed – with the understanding that if an agreement can’t be reached, he’ll be non-tendered. It’s a bit of a heavy-handed approach but don’t be surprised if many other teams take a similar approach with some of their RFAs.
Add A Goalie
It was only a few years ago that Martin Jones looked like their long-term goalie of the future and his $5.75MM AAV through 2023-24 potentially being a bargain. No one’s saying that now. The 31-year-old posted a .896 SV% for the third straight season, a rate that is well below average for a backup let alone a starter. All of a sudden, forget about the old thought of it being a bargain contract. Now, Wilson may need to give serious consideration to buying him out. If you’re curious as to what that would cost, the cap hit would range from $1.667MM to $2.917MM over each of the next six seasons. That’s a steep price to pay but it would give them a bit of space to try to add a better option.
Even if they don’t buy him out, the Sharks need to add another goalie, preferably a starter instead of another reclamation project. Josef Korenar had some good moments in his first taste of NHL action but he has another year of waiver exemption; he needs to be playing as much as possible in the minors and he’s not ready to push for full-time NHL duty just yet. As is often the case, there are quite a few goalies available in free agency and the trade market could feature a few more options than usual. They should be able to nab a reasonably-priced option and with the struggles they’ve had between the pipes lately, the right choice could yield a few more wins in the standings on their own.
Extension Talks For Hertl
If you were curious as to which of their eight highest-paid players doesn’t have any trade protection, it’s Tomas Hertl. He will be entering the final year of his contract next season so when free agency begins and the calendar flips to the 2021-22 season, the 27-year-old will be eligible to sign a contract extension.
While many of the top players in San Jose underachieved offensively this season, Hertl was one of the exceptions. He finished second on the team in scoring to Evander Kane and had he been healthy and played in all 56 games, he might have got the top spot. Nevertheless, his 19 goals and 24 assists in 50 games was good enough for the second-highest point per game average of his career, a pretty good showing.
When Hertl signed a four-year, $22.5MM deal back in the 2018 offseason, it looked like it might be a bit high considering he had only reached the 20-goal mark twice and never had more than 46 points in a season. Since then, however, he has certainly lived up to the deal, picking up 153 points in 170 games, well above a 46-point pace over a full regular season.
With that in mind, it’s likely that Hertl’s camp will be seeking an increase on his next contract, even with wingers taking a hit in free agency last summer in a marketplace that is likely to be more restrictive than usual for the next few years. Wilson will have to decide if the time is right to do that or to let the season play out first. One thing he can dangle now that he can’t next fall? He can offer to put in trade protection into the final season of his existing contract as he’s now old enough to have that protection in his deal (only UFA-eligible players can have it). Maybe he won’t be the only highly-paid player without that for much longer.
Redirect Cap Spending To Offense
The Sharks have been in the bottom ten in scoring in each of the last two seasons. Part of the reason for that is that they’ve dedicated a lot of money away from the forwards. By the time they round out their roster for next season, it’s going to be close to a 50/50 split in terms of money on forwards versus goalies and defensemen. It’s hard to improve offensively with that much money tied up in non-forwards.
Granted, Karlsson and Brent Burns are supposed to help carry the load offensively but that simply wasn’t the case this season. Add a slumping Marc-Edouard Vlasic to the mix and their big three on the back end counts for $26.5MM without much production from that group. In a perfect world, they could get out of one of those contracts which all run through at least 2024-25 but their high price tags and trade protection make that extremely difficult.
One smaller move they could try to make to add some money to the pot for their forwards is to move out Radim Simek. His four-year, $9MM contract is hardly excessive in terms of cost but he has had difficulty staying healthy and had a limited role when he did play this season. Finding a new team for him would give Wilson a little bit more room to try to add up front which, with their veteran defenders slowly down offensively, will be needed if they want to have a chance at working their way back into playoff contention.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Cap information courtesy of CapFriendly.
PHR Mailbag: Cup Prediction, Georgiev, Messier, Eichel, Prospects, Mock Draft
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include a prediction of the Stanley Cup winner, Alexandar Georgiev’s future with the Rangers, a thought on Mark Messier in New York, Jack Eichel trade talk, power forward prospects, and an early mock draft. If your question doesn’t appear here, check for it in last weekend’s mailbag.
lapcheung39: Do you see Tampa Bay will repeat as champion this year; if not, who do you see as a dark horse to win it all?
First, that was quite an entertaining series they had against Florida. The fact that the Lightning played well against a team that really mixed it up physically bodes well for them, a team that is tacitly viewed as more of a finesse group. However, even though I see them squeaking by Carolina in the second round, I don’t think they’re the favorite to win the Stanley Cup.
I suspect I’m hardly the only one in this camp but whoever wins the Colorado-Vegas series is my pick to win it all. Those two teams are in win-now mode with rosters that don’t have many flaws and they know that their best chance is now with the flat cap and pending free agents. (I know Tampa Bay is in a similar boat as well.) I have the Avalanche getting through the Golden Knights so they’d be my pick. I know that’s hardly a dark horse but I don’t think there is one.
CoachWall: Any chance the Rangers include Georgiev in a trade for a center and bring “The King” back to mentor/back up Igor? It would give Henry a way to get a proper send-off before #30 takes its rightful place in the rafters.
Let’s address a quick CBA note here in that there is nothing preventing New York from doing this if they wanted to. Players that are bought out can sign back with the team that bought them out (Calgary’s Michael Stone being the most recent example).
But even though they can, I don’t think they want to do that, nor should they. If the inclusion of Georgiev helps land an impact center, that’d be great. I don’t think he carries enough value to be a key piece of such a trade but in a bigger deal, I could see him being included.
But that doesn’t mean Lundqvist should be the target. He hasn’t played this season after undergoing open-heart surgery which means he will have gone about 14 months between game action between the bubble and the start of next year. It’s also important to remember that his numbers in his final season with New York weren’t particularly great and were below average for a backup.
I agree that Igor Shesterkin could benefit from a veteran backup who can help mentor him but the Rangers need someone that’s a little more reliable and doesn’t come with as many question marks in terms of health. For as talented as Shesterkin is, he has all of 48 career NHL games under his belt and we appear to be heading for an 82-game season in 2021-22. If I’m GM Chris Drury, I’m looking for someone that I’m comfortable handing 35-40 starts to next season. It’d make for a fantastic story but I don’t think that Lundqvist can handle that workload at the age of 39, at least to the point of giving them above-average backup goaltending.
The good news is that a lot of the other veteran free agent goalies out there should be able to handle that type of action so if they do move Georgiev this summer, there will be several viable options to turn to.
@flaguy12: Any chance if the Rangers interviewing Mark Messier for their head coaching job?
Is there a chance they’re interviewing Messier? Sure. I’d even go as far as saying they’re likely to talk to him considering his comments earlier this month when he said he was “standing by ready to help out” following the firings of Jeff Gorton and John Davidson. But as a head coach? I’d be shocked.
Messier dabbled in coaching a decade ago, heading up Canada’s entries into the Deutschland and Spengler Cups. He also has a couple of stints as an assistant coach with peewee teams. That’s the extent of his coaching background. That’s not enough to make him a credible candidate to be an NHL coach, let alone a head coach.
If they do speak with Messier, I wouldn’t be surprised if a role similar to the Senior Advisor post he held a decade ago with the team. If he had any intention of being in a full-time NHL role somewhere, his name would have popped up for opportunities somewhere over the past several years. Accordingly, a part-time role makes more sense for him which would be as an advisor or some sort of player development coach.
sabres3277: Do you believe that the Sabres will trade Eichel? If so, what team would be the best landing spot to bring the Sabres the best return? And what kind of return are the Sabres looking at?
It has been a tough stretch in Buffalo for the past several years and to be honest, I don’t see a lot of hope on the horizon for them. That’s not at all a shot at Jack Eichel either but the supporting cast isn’t good enough and the rotating door of coaches and general managers doesn’t help either. He’s one more season away from having the ability to veto a move when his no-move clause kicks in. I don’t get the sense he’s going to be happier with the Sabres a year from now, especially with the current issue of wanting surgery that the team won’t sign off on. Even with that lingering procedure, it certainly feels as if they have a better shot at getting more for him this summer than next offseason when he can limit the market. Accordingly, I do believe that Eichel will be on the move.
I don’t know how willing the Kings are to commit to three players making at least $10MM on their payroll when they’re a non-playoff team but on paper, they match up well. Buffalo needs a top young center in a trade. Los Angeles has Quinton Byfield, Alex Turcotte, and Gabriel Vilardi as recent first-round picks. They don’t have extra first-round picks but have extra picks in the next two rounds this summer which makes it a bit easier to part with their top selection. They also have ample cap space which means they don’t have to match money. That’s a strong foundation of a deal right there.
The Rangers have been long speculated as a landing spot but their package would have to be based on young defensemen more than a center as part of the reason New York would be in the hunt here is that youngsters like Filip Chytil and Brett Howden haven’t established themselves as top-six fits. I don’t know if the fit is as good and it’s a deal where money would need to be matched beyond the inclusion of Ryan Strome. I’ll toss in a dark horse team as well, the Blue Jackets. If Buffalo really likes one of Joonas Korpisalo or Elvis Merzlikins and that goalie is willing to sign, that could give them their starter for the foreseeable future, a core piece. They have three first-round picks at their disposal and could add someone like Max Domi to give him another fresh start although they don’t need to match money either. There are some pieces to work with for an offer there.
I can see this being a four or five-piece package. A young core player that’s either signed long-term or under team control for four or five years (Eichel has five years left on his deal). There needs to be a top prospect in there and probably a first-round pick or comparable prospect. The rest will be taking a player or two back for cap purposes. That’s a higher price than Ryan O’Reilly but Eichel is in a higher tier. O’Reilly is quite good but Eichel is a franchise player. They need to demand a huge return and even in a flat-cap market, they should be able to get it.
Pieters: Which prospects would have the best chance of being the next Brady Tkachuk (i.e., scoring forward that’s not afraid to mix it up)?
That’s a very rare combination to try to match which is part of the reason Tkachuk went as high as he did (fourth overall in 2016). There frankly hasn’t been one like him since then which makes this rather challenging to answer.
I think players like Matt Boldy (MIN) and Samuel Poulin (PIT) could fit the bill offensively. Boldy hasn’t had a chance to throw his weight around much in college but I think as he fills out, he’ll have a bigger willingness to get engaged physically. I’m not sure that means he’ll drop the gloves a ton but there should be a physicality element in time and he should score enough to be in the top six. Poulin has shown the offensive skill in junior that could translate to the pros but he already is a particularly physical player and undoubtedly will be highly valued by Pittsburgh’s new management team. If he puts it all together, he could fit that bill.
One other wildcard that comes to mind is Jake Neighbours (STL). I’m not convinced that his offensive ceiling is as high as Tkachuk’s but he could be a 15-20-goal player that drops the gloves from time to time while being able to mix it up in the corners.
If you’re looking at this and thinking that none of these players are like Tkachuk, you’re right. They’re not. But part of what makes Tkachuk or any other power forward of that ilk (think Milan Lucic and Wayne Simmonds in their primes) is that the combination of physicality and offensive skill is so hard to get; they don’t come around often. There are players with similar offensive games but don’t throw their weight around as much. There are more players willing to engage in the corners and play rough but lack the offensive upside to play in the top six. Rarely do you see both in the same player.
Tkachuk may not have the overall offensive upside as some of the others that went behind him in that draft but with everything else he brings to the table, the Sens believed he’d be more valuable. That belief has been rewarded so far.
Offseason Checklist: Detroit Red Wings
The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league finished up after missing the playoffs. It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Detroit.
The rebuild continues for the Red Wings which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise with how their roster was structured coming into the season. They’re playing the long game and have amassed a quality group of prospects that will be added to this summer with a dozen draft picks including five in the first two rounds. GM Steve Yzerman has already checked off one major item from his checklist with the decision to retain head coach Jeff Blashill (though they will need to replace Dan Bylsma behind the bench) but he still has a lot of work to do.
Rebuild The Back End
There’s no denying that Detroit has plenty of cap and roster flexibility, especially on the back end where a grand total of two regulars are under contract for next season in Danny DeKeyser and Troy Stecher. Of those, it’s worth noting that DeKeyser cleared waivers and would almost certainly do so again next year. There’s a lot of work to be done here.
Filip Hronek is the top restricted free agent out of the group and very quietly led the Red Wings in scoring this season with 26 points while logging over 23 minutes a game for the second straight year. He isn’t eligible for salary arbitration as he’s coming off his entry-level deal but that won’t stop him from landing a significant raise. Even with a bridge deal, he should be able to at least quadruple his $714K price tag while a contract that buys out UFA years would be substantially higher and should put him ahead of DeKeyser’s AAV. Dennis Cholowski and Gustav Lindstrom have a bit of upside but project as role players at this point. So too are veterans Marc Staal and Alex Biega, both set to become unrestricted free agents; Hronek is the only core piece of the bunch and it’s a core that isn’t very deep.
There is definitely room for multiple additions in their top four defensively and that’s not even considering top prospect Moritz Seider who is ready to make the jump to the NHL. Detroit has been cautious in their player development so it’s unlikely he’ll get heavy minutes right away. It’s unlikely that they will be a prime free agent destination so Yzerman may need to do what he did a year ago with Staal and leverage their cap room – they have less than $33MM on the books for next season – to add some pieces. A willingness to add someone with term on their deal this time around might be a better way to go than another rental.
Detroit isn’t ready to become a contender next season so this isn’t something that has to all be done this summer but bringing in another building block or two to shore things up would be a welcome step in the right direction.
Re-Sign Key RFA Wingers
There is a long list of forwards that are in need of new deals but there are two that certainly stand out among the group in wingers Tyler Bertuzzi and Jakub Vrana. Both players are eligible for salary arbitration so if they want to avoid a hearing, they’ll be trying to work out new deals by August (assuming the players file by the deadline).
Bertuzzi’s case is going to be an intriguing one. Coming into the season, he was coming off a career year offensively despite the pandemic-shortened 2019-20 campaign and had two straight seasons of 21 goals and at least 47 points. The expectation coming into the year was that he’d be able to take another step forward this season. He looked to be on his way to doing so with five goals and seven points in nine January games but those wound up being his only games. While he initially wasn’t expected to miss the rest of the year, that eventually became the case and he underwent back surgery at the end of April. Bertuzzi, now 26, is a year away from UFA eligibility and while his platform year ended in disappointment, he’ll still carry some leverage knowing that he can force another one-year deal and hit the open market a year from now. He’ll be owed a qualifying offer of $3.5MM but expect Detroit to go considerably higher and try to buy out some UFA eligibility.
As for Vrana, he was the key piece coming back in the deadline deal that saw Anthony Mantha head to Washington. While the 25-year-old underwhelmed with the Capitals, that changed following the move. His playing time jumped by nearly three minutes a night while he produced at a point per game pace, collecting eight goals and three assists in 11 games. That’s certainly a small sample size and no one should be expecting that to continue but it pushed his numbers to a level comparable to his career year in 2019-20 once you extrapolate for the shortened season. His qualifying offer is actually a bit lower than his AAV based on the structure of the deal but Vrana will certainly earn more than the $3MM they’re required to offer. He’s two years away from unrestricted free agency so the two sides could agree to a one-year pact that allows for more evaluation while keeping him RFA-eligible after that. Alternatively, if Yzerman feels that Vrana is a top-six fixture for the foreseeable future, a long-term contract now would make sense.
Add A Starting Goalie
Goaltending has been an issue for the Red Wings for several years now. Jimmy Howard had a good run as a starter but by the end of his playing days, he wasn’t a legitimate starter. Jonathan Bernier has done relatively well considering the weaker team in front of him but he isn’t a number one either. Neither is Thomas Greiss who they signed in free agency last offseason. That allowed them to basically run a platoon of decent veterans which was fine for a season when they weren’t opting to contend but it hasn’t exactly set up them for their post-rebuild either.
Last year, it was Howard’s free agency that created an opening between the crease and this time, it’s Bernier in that situation. He seemed like a probable candidate to move at the trade deadline but there wasn’t much of a market and he wound up staying put. Now, Yzerman has to decide whether or not he wants to keep Bernier and run with the platoon again or look to try to bring in more of a long-term piece. If the expectation is that they won’t be a playoff contender next year, keeping the status quo would make some sense in principle while allowing them the ability to potentially trade a rental a year from now (Greiss will be in the final year of his contract in 21-22).
However, a starting goalie isn’t something a team should be searching for on an annual basis. At some point, a more permanent solution needs to be brought in and it’s probably not coming from their prospect pool. It’s not a great year for proven starters in free agency but there are upgrades available there while the looking Seattle expansion could result in some more activity on the trade market than usual. Yzerman will need to determine if this is the time to make a goalie splash or punt on the decision for another year.
Add Top-Six Forwards
The list of teams that scored fewer goals than Detroit this season begins with Anaheim and also ends with Anaheim. With Bertuzzi, Vrana, and Dylan Larkin, they have three capable top-six forwards but the depth starts to slide after that. Filip Zadina has some upside still and Robby Fabbri was quietly productive in limited action but they’re not ready to be top-six players on a contender just yet.
To help get them to playoff contender status, they need to bring in multiple players that can play in the top six, preferably a winger and a center. The good news is that there are quality UFA wingers available that may require an overpayment in terms of money to bring in but they have ample cap space and can afford to overpay to maintain their prospect and draft pick capital. The bad news is that the same can’t be said for centers. Filling that void will require some creativity.
Last offseason, Detroit used their cap space to take on Staal and add a second-round pick for their troubles. A similar approach could be taken here to both improve their roster as well as keep adding to their stockpile for the future. Yzerman has built up the forward depth since taking over in Detroit and now it’s getting closer to being time to make a bigger splash. This summer, one that should have a lot of player movement, looks like a good place to start improving on that front.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Cap information courtesy of CapFriendly.
PHR Mailbag: Player Safety, Compliance Buyouts, Kessel, Summer Shakeups, Predators, Flyers, Officiating
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the Department of Player Safety, the possibility of compliance buyouts, a creative Arizona trade idea, teams that could be heading for a sizable shakeup, Nashville’s regular season struggles, Philadelphia’s offseason, and NHL officiating. If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.
pawtucket: How would you fix the Department of Player Safety and its obvious flaws and inconsistencies?
When it comes to its flaws, I’m not sure everyone in the league and the NHL Players Association necessarily sees it that way. I’m not going to weigh in on the Tom Wilson incident which is what I suspect led to this question aside from noting that the view of general managers who were willing to speak off the record about it was hardly unanimous. I’m fairly confident the same can be said of the players as well. If someone wants to see stiffer discipline handed out, there is someone else who likes things the way there are now. That makes meaningful changes hard to accomplish.
The fine system has largely been ridiculed given its lack of teeth but that’s how both sides (the NHL and NHLPA) seem to want it. The threshold for levying a fine without a disciplinary hearing is $5K and is collectively bargained (Section 18 for anyone who wants to look up the details). That’s why most fines have been for that amount; it’s the most they can give without calling a hearing. It can actually be higher (up to $15K for multiple fines in a 12-month period) but a hearing would have to happen each time. If they want it to be higher, it needs to be agreed upon in the CBA. They just extended the CBA and didn’t touch it. Until a large percentage of players and league executives believe things need to change, they’re not going to change.
As to what I might change? That’s a hard one as the ideas I have certainly have flaws to them but here they are. Having an independent party make the decision could be more objective than an NHL employee but that would cost more money and chances are, the league would be more hesitant to refer matters to that independent person which would mean even more of the current system. Maybe some sort of panel makes a ruling – one with a league representative, an NHLPA representative, and one other party (perhaps a former player). Each makes their ruling and the suspension or fine becomes the average or median amount of those three. I’ll admit, that’s not a great system either but in terms of changes that I can think of, those are the ones that come to mind.
Joe422: With so many teams up against the salary cap… is there any chance the league allows a compliance buyout this offseason? And if yes, we know Ladd, Neal, etc will be bought out but what surprise names could we see?
If there was going to be a compliance buyout that was allowed, it would have been last year when teams were caught off guard by the cap flattening out instead of continuing to increase. Everyone has now had a season to operate under the new system and have signed contracts knowing what the new economic reality is. And while there are some large-market, cap-strapped teams that would welcome the ability for a cap-exempt buyout, there are others that want to see those teams suffer, for lack of a better term. I’d be surprised if one was allowed this summer.
But, just for fun, a name that came to mind that might be viewed as a surprise when I saw this question was Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky. He has not fared well with the Panthers; a .902 SV% wasn’t what they were expecting when they gave him $10MM a year for seven years. They have Spencer Knight who is their goalie of the future. Clearing Bobrovsky’s deal off the books would also allow them to be able to afford to re-sign pending UFA Chris Driedger, bring in a veteran backup/platoon option, and still come out with cap and real dollar savings. GM Bill Zito isn’t the GM who gave Bobrovsky the contract so there’s no situation where the GM isn’t willing to admit his mistake – it was Dale Tallon who made it.
The Mistake of Giving Eugene Melnyk a Liver Transplant: Could Arizona expose Phil Kessel for the draft, then give up an asset to trade to get him back after the $5MM signing bonus has been paid?
Technically, this is legal, sort of. In the Vegas draft, teams were allowed to trade back for the players that they lost and a few of those teams went down that road but couldn’t work something out. However, as Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic noted back in 2017 (Twitter link), it can’t be part of a pre-arranged transaction. Assuming that the purpose of this is to have Seattle repay Kessel’s July 1 signing bonus to Arizona (which is how it technically would work), that certainly feels like a pre-arranged transaction. They’d have to get a little creative as a result.
For a deal to not appear as pre-arranged, some time would need to elapse before Arizona would re-acquire Kessel. I’m thinking a couple of months or more with the deal coming just before (or during) training camp. By then, the Coyotes could plausibly argue that they were unable to replace him in free agency or the trade market and having had time to re-assess their team, now believe that they need to bring him back (and would be paying a fairly significant cost to do so). Is losing a good pick/prospect or two and potentially drawing the ire of the league worth saving $5MM in costs? Even with their financial situation, I’m not sure they’d see it that way but I like the creative thinking.
MoneyBallJustWorks: What teams if they are eliminated in Round 1 can you see making big changes this offseason?
For example, if Edmonton is eliminated in Round 1, do they shake up their core outside of Leon, Connor and Darnell?
Edmonton certainly seems like the obvious choice to be bolder in their team building. The forward depth isn’t the greatest which is a by-product of having players like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on their roster. Their defense isn’t elite by any stretch either. I don’t think they’d move one of McDavid, Draisaitl, or Darnell Nurse but I don’t think there would be many untouchables beyond those three either. If they go down to Winnipeg with the offense continuing to sputter, GM Ken Holland will have a hard time justifying keeping things the way they are now.
Washington also stands out as a possibility and with them down 3-1 to Boston, them losing also stands out as a possibility. It has been a weird year for them and it certainly feels like Evgeny Kuznetsov’s time with them could be in jeopardy. Any time a center of his caliber becomes available, that’s shaking up the core. If they wind up exposing and losing T.J. Oshie to Seattle as some have speculated, that would be another big change to their core group.
Gbear: Despite getting into the playoffs, the Predators have been awful at shot suppression, shot creation and special teams throughout John Hynes’ tenure as coach. Is merely squeezing into the playoffs reason to allow him to keep his job in Nashville?
Related to that, it would seem that if any team needed to make a play for Jack Eichel, it would be Nashville. Would it not be reasonable for GM Poile to offer up two first-rounders, and any of their prospects not named Tomasino or Farrance for him?
Speaking of a team that could try to shake things up with a first-round exit, Nashville would certainly qualify as well. They’ve been sputtering for a while now and it’s clear the composition of players they have don’t work in terms of maximizing their individual talents. A swap of high-priced underachievers is one of the ways that teams can make moves without creating cap problems as long as the deals are similarly priced and the Predators look like a prime candidate to do that.
The hiring of Hynes was a little surprising at the time and frankly was underwhelming as nothing he had done in New Jersey suggested he was a ‘must-hire before anyone else gets a chance to get him’ coach. But it wouldn’t be fair to just lay it at his feet as the core wasn’t exactly doing much under Peter Laviolette either. I think it’s more of a roster composition issue than a coaching one at this point. And for what it’s worth, Hynes has only been behind the bench for 84 regular season games, barely one full season. Coaches, especially ones that they moved quickly to get like they did, typically get a longer leash than that, playoff success or not.
As for targeting Eichel, sure, they’d be wise to show interest in him. However, the cost to get a franchise player is going to be considerably higher than a couple of first-round picks that will be near the middle of the round and some prospects that aren’t at the top of their pool. Eichel will be looked at in more detail next week but if Buffalo isn’t getting elite talent in return, they shouldn’t be moving him. That package isn’t going to yield elite talent.
Offseason Checklist: Columbus Blue Jackets
The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league finished up after missing the playoffs. It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Columbus.
After eliminating Toronto in the Qualifying Round last season, there was supposed to be a bit of momentum for the Blue Jackets heading into 2020-21. However, that was quickly derailed by a trade request from Pierre-Luc Dubois and Gustav Nyqvist being ruled out for the season before it even began. Things basically only went downhill from there and instead of being in the mix for a playoff spot, they will be picking much higher in the draft than they wanted to. Now two years removed from their all-in push, GM Jarmo Kekalainen and the recently re-hired John Davidson have a lot of work to do this offseason to retain and supplement their new core.
Find A New Coach
Let’s get the easy one out of the way. Columbus has a vacancy behind the bench following the recent parting of ways between them and John Tortorella whose contract was not renewed. (On top of that, Brad Shaw, one of their assistant coaches, won’t be back either.)
As coaching cycles tend to alternate between tougher coaches and ones viewed as more of ‘players’ coaches’, it would seem that Kekalainen would be seeking someone in the latter category. The GM has already expressed an openness to hiring a first-time NHL head coach or someone who has held that title before so they’ll be casting a wide net.
One element Kekalainen will likely try to focus on is finding a coach who is going to play a more up-tempo system. Columbus struggled mightily in the offensive zone this season and while part of that is simply a lack of offensive firepower, some of the better forwards they had are coming off of tough seasons. Finding someone who can get more out of those players would certainly help their cause.
Extensions For Defensemen
While Columbus has seen their forward core get progressively weaker the past couple of years, that hasn’t been the case on the back end as their two stalwarts – Seth Jones and Zach Werenski – remain with the team. Both of them are signed for next season already but that’s it. As a result, they’ll be eligible to sign contract extensions once the 2021-22 calendar officially begins in July and Kekalainen will undoubtedly be looking to get new deals done with both of them.
Jones needs to be the priority of the two given his expiration status as he will be eligible for unrestricted free agency at the end of next season. His offensive numbers have dipped the last couple of years but he still managed to put up five goals and 23 assists in 56 games while averaging more than 25 minutes a night for the third straight year. He’s a legitimate top-pairing defenseman and will be in line for a significant raise on his current $5.4MM AAV. At 26, he’s in the prime of his career and should be able to command a max-term contract of eight years. He won’t come close to the highest-paid blueliners in the league but something in the $8MM range would appear to be doable.
As for Werenski, he will be a restricted free agent with another year of team control but that will already carry a premium price as his qualifying offer jumps to $7MM despite a $5MM AAV. It’s not that the price tag is daunting at that level but if you’re Werenski, it wouldn’t be worth accepting less than that on an extension knowing that much is already locked in for 2022-23. He is the better offensive player than Jones but isn’t as good in his own end and doesn’t play quite as much. However, he’s also in the prime of his career and is a viable top pairing player so he should be able to command a similar price tag as Jones.
While deals in that range would represent a substantial increase in cost, it’s one that they’d be wise to pay. That’s a strong defensive core to build around and they don’t even have $21MM in salary commitments for 2022-23; they have one of the cleanest cap situations in the league for that year. They can afford to do it.
New Deal For Laine
The trade of Dubois to Winnipeg brought back two forwards. One wound up finishing tied for second in team scoring while the other struggled offensively. Patrik Laine was supposed to become the go-to scorer for the Blue Jackets but instead, it was Jack Roslovic who thrived while Laine struggled considerably. He had just 10 goals in 45 games with his new team and while those numbers are certainly lower due to the pandemic-shortened season, it’s still worth noting that it was only an 18-goal pace over a full 82-game campaign. For someone that had at least 30 in each of his first three NHL seasons and played at a similar pace when COVID-19 put an early end to the 2019-20 campaign, that’s a substantial drop.
From Laine’s perspective, it was also an untimely one as the 23-year-old will be a restricted free agent this summer. This was supposed to be the year that helped him earn a long-term, lucrative contract. But after a year like this, there will definitely be questions about how much a deal that buys out several UFA years should cost.
At a minimum, we can comfortably say it will cost at least $7.5MM. With his bridge deal being backloaded, that’s the minimum required qualifying offer and while Laine didn’t have a season worthy of that level of production, there’s no way they’re non-tendering him. Has he done enough to earn more than that though? Is he willing to sign a long-term deal for that amount, even in this flat-cap market? Is he willing to sign a long-term deal in Columbus? (His comments at the end of the season seemed to suggest he would.) Is Kekalainen willing to do that type of contract or would he prefer a one-year pact to see how he fits in with a new coach and a new system?
There are undoubtedly plenty of questions, certainly more than either side would have hoped for when the trade was made. With Laine having arbitration eligibility this summer, they will have to be answered somewhere around the middle of August at the latest.
Add Impact Center
If this sounds like a familiar headline when it comes to Columbus, it’s because it is. Unfortunately for the Blue Jackets, it’s an even bigger issue now.
Kekalainen tried to address the issue last summer when he brought in Max Domi from Montreal. While he was coming off of a down season, he was only a year removed from a 72-point season so there was optimism that he’d be able to bounce back. A one-two punch of Dubois and Domi wouldn’t challenge for the best in the league but there seemed to be some legitimate offensive upside there. Except that didn’t happen. Dubois wanted out and was eventually obliged while Domi struggled even more than a year ago, putting up the lowest per-game numbers of his career while collecting just 24 points in 54 games. To make matters worse, he spent time on the wing as well.
Now, their one-two punch is Roslovic, a player who had mostly been a winger in the NHL before getting to Columbus and Domi. Boone Jenner is a capable third liner while Alexandre Texier has top-six upside but hasn’t put it all together. There’s a case to be made here that they could use two impact centers but in a free agent market where there aren’t many available, that would be tough to do. It may have to come from a trade but another notable addition down the middle is certainly required.
Pick A Goalie
The good news is that the Blue Jackets have a good goalie tandem in Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins. It’s a homegrown duo and they combine for a $6.8MM cap hit which is the league median. They don’t even have to worry about losing one to Seattle in expansion as Merzlikins is exempt having just come off his second NHL season.
The bad news is that both goalies are set to become unrestricted free agents next summer. Speculatively, it stands to reason that neither of them will be content with being in a platoon beyond that as both have aspirations of being a starting goalie. Both of them have shown flashes of that already. At some point over the next year or so, they need to pick who they want to keep.
Having said that, the in-season trade market for rental goalies has been minimal for years now. That probably isn’t going to change next year. Accordingly, Kekalainen’s best chance at extracting reasonable value for one of them on the trade front would be over the next couple of months before money starts to be spent in free agency. To that end, in his end-of-season media availability with reporters including Jeff Svoboda of the Blue Jackets’ team site, Merzlikins indicated that he’s expecting an uncertain summer with it seeming unlikely that both goalies will be content with the current situation.
As a result, that pick of who is going to be their goalie of the future may have to come sooner than later and could be dependent simply on if one is willing to sign now versus preferring to wait things out. It’s certainly shaping up to be a very busy offseason for Columbus.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Cap information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag
The playoffs have begun, even though the 2020-21 regular season isn’t actually over for the Vancouver Canucks and Calgary Flames. Still, those games are more like tryouts for young players than competitive NHL action, meaning the focus is on the postseason from here on out.
With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag. If you missed the last one, it was broken into two pieces. The first part looked at the future for Taylor Hall, some expansion draft complications, and the Selke Trophy vote. The second discussed the unproven goaltending situation in Pittsburgh, Seattle’s first star, and which dark horses could make a run during the playoffs.
You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run this weekend.
Offseason Checklist: New Jersey Devils
The offseason has arrived for most teams that aren’t playoff-bound with a couple of others set to join them in the coming days as they play out their rescheduled games. It’s time to examine what they need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at New Jersey.
The Devils weren’t expected to be a contender this season but this was a rough year for them. Corey Crawford’s retirement before training camp threw a wrench into their plan between the pipes and then a harsh COVID-19 outbreak derailed some early momentum. The end result was them selling once again at the trade deadline and remaining firmly entrenched in rebuilding mode. At some point, GM Tom Fitzgerald will need to get things headed back in the direction of playoff contention which results in a rather large to-do list that reflects requiring improvements pretty much everywhere.
Fitzgerald Extension
Before he can really dig into any of that, however, Fitzgerald needs a contract extension. While the interim GM tag was removed last offseason, it didn’t come with an extension so his deal is up at the end of the league calendar (the final day before free agency). On the surface, considering he had the green light to take them through the trade deadline, it stands to reason that Fitzgerald will be the GM moving forward and discussions on a new deal have already started. At some point in the near future though, pen will need to put to paper and at that time, presumably with a bit of contractual certainty, he will be able to continue reshaping this roster.
Add Impact Veteran Offensive Winger
The mark of a good team is often a mixture of quality young players on below-market contracts with some impact veterans mixed in with some good ones lower in the lineup. They have a promising young core up front headed by Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier while we can add Yegor Sharangovich, Pavel Zacha, and Jesper Bratt to the mix. Zacha turned 24 last month and he’s the elder statesman of the bunch. Others like Michael McLeod, Nolan Foote, and Janne Kuokkanen have the potential to be more than just role players either and none of them are older than 23. Not everyone will pan out but there’s enough for a decent foundation of young forwards to work with.
It’s fair to question if Hughes and Hischier will ultimately live up to their number one draft billing but in their defense, they’ve basically been thrown to the wolves without a lot of support. Taylor Hall had one really good season but wasn’t lighting the lamp a ton the rest of the time. He’s gone now. Kyle Palmieri is a nice player and a viable top-six forward but he’s not a top piece that’s going to bring out the best in two young centermen. He’s also gone now. If you look at the rest of their veterans, it’s mostly a group of role players with someone like Miles Wood being a middle-six guy. That’s not much help at all and it’s help that those two need if they’re going to be able to elevate their performance and reach their potential.
New Jersey hasn’t had much luck at all in free agency in recent years and with the year they had, it’s fair to wonder if that trend will continue. However, at a time when a lot of teams don’t have much cap space, they have plenty of it – more than $37MM per CapFriendly – which gives them an ability to be more aggressive when hunting for additions, especially since there aren’t any overly pricey restricted free agents to deal with. At a minimum, they need one impact winger and in a perfect world, more than that. And if they strike out on the top free agents, they should be able to leverage that cap space on the trade front as long as they don’t accept role players as they did last fall.
Who will New Jersey’s leading scorer be next season? The ideal answer to that question is someone that’s not currently in the organization. It’s a lofty goal but it’s one that needs to be met.
Add A Better Backup Goalie
To Fitzgerald’s credit, he read the goaltending situation correctly last offseason. Seeing that Mackenzie Blackwood had potential but not a lot of experience, bringing in a run of the mill backup wouldn’t have been a wise move. Bringing Crawford in on a two-year deal to work with and push Blackwood was a wise move. Unfortunately, his change of heart left them in a no-win situation and they were forced to rely on Scott Wedgewood and two waiver claims in Eric Comrie (later waived and reclaimed by Winnipeg) and Aaron Dell. Those players are best utilized as third-stringers and the ensuing results weren’t pretty.
As a result, Blackwood received the lion’s share of the workload and the results were mixed. There were times where he was stealing multiple games and others where he struggled mightily while enduring two losing streaks of at least six games. That can’t all be laid at his feet, however, given that there were many nights when the Devils didn’t have their best lineup available due to injuries and players being in COVID-19 protocol. There is still a reason to be optimistic that he can be their starter of the future.
However, he still could benefit from a veteran mentor that can still contribute, something that Crawford was expected to provide before he retired. That same thought process needs to be applied here in free agency. The good news is that veteran free agent goalies are typically available every year with varying levels of ability – starters, platoon options, clear-cut backups, and role players. Adding someone in the platoon category would be a good target, one that can take some pressure off Blackwood. Depending on what happens on the goalie front with Seattle, they could look to the trade market as well. It’s not as critical of an addition as adding forwards but this is something that Fitzgerald will need to accomplish.
Bring In Multiple Defensive Upgrades
There is a reasonable foundation in place for next season on the back end. P.K. Subban will be entering the final year of his contract, Damon Severson is a capable veteran, and Ty Smith’s first NHL season was certainly encouraging. The depth gets pretty thin after that, however.
Will Butcher has the offensive ability to be an impact player but has struggled the last couple of years while it remains to be seen how good Jonas Siegenthaler can be. They’ll be in the mix next season but can’t be counted on to play a significant role. Kevin Bahl has some potential but needs more time in the minors.
Ryan Murray, Connor Carrick, and Matt Tennyson are set to become unrestricted free agents this summer, creating an opening in the top four as well as on the depth front. At the very least, a top-four defender to replace Murray is needed but in a perfect world, another addition that can play in the fourth or fifth spot to give them some extra insurance would also be brought in. Unlike most teams, they can afford to shop for multiple impact pieces even after adding up front.
There are a lot of vacancies to try to fill but that’s what happens when a team misses the playoffs for three straight years and eight of the last nine. Fitzgerald may not be able to fill all of them but if New Jersey is going to get out of their current spin, they need to make several additions of note in the coming months.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Offseason Checklist: Anaheim Ducks
The offseason has arrived for most teams that aren’t playoff-bound with a couple of others set to join them in the coming days as they play out their rescheduled games. It’s time to examine what they need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Anaheim.
Expectations were relatively low for Anaheim heading into this season. The expectation was that the top three seeds in the Pacific Division were pretty much locks, leaving only one spot available for everyone else to fight for. It didn’t quite go as expected with who the third seed wound up being (many would have had St. Louis there) but in the end, the rest of the teams were battling for one spot. That is, except Anaheim as the Ducks fell out of the hunt in a hurry. The same problems that existed a year before are in place now so GM Bob Murray has a lot to accomplish this offseason to try to get this team out of its rut.
Add Offensive Help
Let’s dive into the obvious one first. The median goals per game average this season was 2.84 and the year before that 3.07. Anaheim’s goals per game averages over that same stretch? 2.21 this year (dead last) and 2.56 last season (third last). You can’t win if you can’t score and the Ducks clearly cannot score. Their core group just isn’t good enough to produce at a high enough level.
There’s good news on the horizon if you’re looking for some reason for optimism. Last summer, Anaheim didn’t have a lot of cap space at their disposal but that’s not the case this time around. They have just under $59MM on the books for next year, per CapFriendly, with no high-priced free agents to re-sign (more on the one you might be thinking of in a little bit). Even with a flat $81.5MM cap, that’s a lot of room to work with and if they’re willing to go into LTIR again, they would have even more room at their disposal as that $59MM figure includes Ryan Kesler’s $6.875MM AAV and with his playing days done, he can go back on there for next season.
The key here for Murray will be adding difference-makers. They could use a top center, top left winger, and top right winger. They could use upgrades on the second line as well. That’s not to say that they’re going to fill all of those spots – they won’t – but multiple viable top-six additions are needed. With few teams having the type of cap space that Anaheim will this summer, there should be few impediments in trying to get this done. Expect the Ducks to be active.
Re-Sign Young Core Forwards
While I’ve been critical of their offense, there are some promising pieces of Anaheim’s core up front and the majority of them need new contracts this summer. Included in this group are Max Comtois, Max Jones, Isac Lundestrom, Sam Steel, and Alexander Volkov.
With the exception of Volkov, the rest are drafted and developed exclusively by the Ducks and were supposed to comprise a bit part of their young core. Comtois is on his way – he very quietly led Anaheim in scoring this season – but the other three struggled, notching no more than 12 points.
Accordingly, the majority of these deals will be bridge contracts, allowing for more evaluation as to their overall upside but perhaps more importantly, to give them as much flexibility to try and add to their roster. Worth noting is that only Volkov has salary arbitration eligibility as well.
But Comtois’ deal will be a bit trickier. Over his first two seasons, he was pretty quiet at the offensive end in limited action, totalling 18 points in 39 games but in a full-time role this year, that jumped to 33 points in 55 contests while averaging over 15 minutes per night. Does he have another level to reach? If Murray thinks so, Comtois could be a quiet candidate for a longer-term deal. He isn’t an RFA that’s garnering a lot of attention but he’s one of the more intriguing ones of the summer.
Determine Getzlaf’s Future
Ryan Getzlaf has been a fixture in Anaheim’s lineup for 16 years and was a force on their top line for the majority of those. Along the way, he became their captain and is now the franchise leaders in games played and goals and is within striking distance of Teemu Selanne for the lead in points (just six away from tying the record). He has long stated his desire to stay with the Ducks to the point where he wouldn’t entertain trade options a year ago. This season, he appeared to be more open to the idea of moving at the trade deadline but no really viable opportunities really materialized, likely in large part due to his $8.25MM AAV; even with 50% retention, that would have been tough for most teams to fit in.
It’s a guarantee that he won’t get that this summer or even come close to that number. The 36-year-old had the worst offensive season of his career in 2020-21, notching just five goals and a dozen assists in 48 games. The days of him being a core contributor are gone but is there a fit at something closer to the $2MM mark, a deal that’s someone comparable to the deal that long-time former linemate Corey Perry inked with Dallas a year ago? Getzlaf is eligible for performance incentives in his deal as long as he signs a one-year contract.
But is he better off going elsewhere, especially if he has intentions of trying to get back into playoff contention? And does Anaheim need to keep transitioning to the future by allowing Steel and Lundestrom to get some of Getzlaf’s minutes? It’s always a tough situation when a franchise icon is nearing the end of his run. Murray will need to determine if that time is indeed now.
Figure Out What’s Next For Manson
Josh Manson has worked his way from being a role player to a key cog on Anaheim’s back end. While his offensive outburst in 2017-18 is looking more and more like a one-off, he still is strong in the defensive zone and gives them plenty of physicality. Those elements made him highly sought after at the trade deadline despite an injury-riddled season. But Murray set a very high asking price with him having another year left on his contract at a $4.1MM cap hit and nothing came to fruition.
Now he will be entering the final season of his deal and with that is the ability to work on a contract extension. While he is a key cog for them, he’ll be hard-pressed to command a significant raise with his offensive game regressing lately. In a flat-cap era, it’s harder to allocate significant salary dollars to players who aren’t going to do a whole lot on the scoreboard but a small increase in pay should be doable. Something in the $4.5MM to $5MM range is something that would seem reasonable to both sides.
But what if Manson isn’t ready to do that deal this summer? As we saw this season, cap space is much harder to free up once the season gets underway and unless the Ducks rapidly turn around their fortunes, he’ll enter the year as a highly speculative trade option. If that is the route that it looks like they will be heading down, they might be better off moving him before free agency starts. Anaheim’s back end has taken some hits in recent years and it seems likely that Murray will try to make a push to make sure that Manson isn’t the next one on that list.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Offseason Checklist: Buffalo Sabres
The offseason has arrived for several teams that aren’t playoff-bound with others set to join them in the coming days as they play out their rescheduled games. With that in mind, it’s time to begin our annual offseason series, beginning with Buffalo.
Optimism was high, or at least higher than normal, heading into the season for the Sabres. The top forward in free agency in Taylor Hall signed a one-year, $8MM deal to try to showcase himself alongside Jack Eichel while bolstering their top line in the process while Eric Staal was brought in to anchor an improved second line. That was the plan. What actually occurred was basically the exact opposite. Pretty much all of their veterans struggled mightily and things wound up going worse than they had in recent years. That saw Ralph Krueger ousted as head coach in the middle of an 18-game winless streak and while they were a bit better down the stretch, GM Kevyn Adams enters his second offseason with an awful lot on his to-do list. Here are some of the bigger ones.
Sign A Goalie Tandem
Forget simply searching for a starting goalie which is something that has been on the radar for a while given the uncertainty of Linus Ullmark’s ability to take over the number one role. Three years after letting Robin Lehner go, they hoped that Ullmark and veteran Carter Hutton would be able to work as a platoon. That hasn’t gone as well as they hoped and now both netminders are set to hit the UFA market this summer.
Hutton clearly won’t be back but Ullmark’s future is somewhat murky. They weren’t able to agree on a contract extension before the trade deadline but Adams opted to hold onto him and expressed some optimism that a deal could be reached. But what’s the right price tag? He had a 2.67 GAA with a .917 SV% this season which are good numbers considering the team led the league in goals allowed but he only made 20 starts. Ullmark hasn’t made more than 37 appearances in a single NHL season. That can’t be spun as playing time for a starter or even the strong side of a platoon. He’s in line for a raise on the $2.6MM he made this year but top backups only make about $1MM more than that. Is he willing to take that to stick around?
Of course, the fact that they want him to return also poses the question of what role they want him back for. Do they think he’s an above-average backup or, despite the relative inexperience, do they view him as a starter? The answer to that determines what type of other goalie they pursue, either a proven number one or a similar backup to try the platoon again. (And if he doesn’t re-sign, they’ll be looking for two goalies.)
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is the presumptive goalie of the future for Buffalo and while he didn’t look out of place in a four-game stint late in the season, he’s not ready to be a backup yet let alone a starter. That also throws a wrinkle into Adams’ planning. If they think Luukkonen is a few years away from being their number one, do they look at a shorter-term platoon as a bridge? And are top starters less inclined to sign there if Luukkonen is the guy down the road?
There are certainly a few factors in play but one way or another, Adams needs to sign a pair of goalies over the coming months.
Determine Eichel’s Future
Jack Eichel has been in the news plenty since Monday following his end-of-season media availability where he expressed some frustration with how things have gone both on the ice and with regards to his medical situation. Ending comments with a desire to get healthy and play “wherever that might be” isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement of Buffalo and stings a bit harder as their captain and franchise player.
Can this be fixed? At this point, they’re clearly hoping that they can and what happens with regards to whether he can get the surgery on his neck will certainly be part of those talks. If not, he’s going to be in trade speculation all summer long.
Eichel has five years remaining on his contract with a $10MM AAV. That will be difficult for teams to absorb but number one centers of his caliber rarely become available. Cap space is hard to come by but he’s the type of player that teams will find a way to make it work to bring him in, a task that will be made more difficult by the reality that getting Buffalo to retain on that contract for the next half-decade would be extremely difficult.
Also at play here is the fact that Eichel is a year away from having full control of where he could be moved to with a full no-move clause. The number of suitors in the 2022 offseason would be much lower as a result so if they can’t mend fences or sense that this discontent will be a lingering issue, the time to move him is this summer. More specifically, before the start of free agency when creating cap space will become more difficult as players start signing.
While Adams is at it, similar decisions will need to be made of defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen and forward Sam Reinhart. Both players have one year of team control remaining and didn’t exactly give glowing endorsements in their interviews either. Are they part of the long-term plans; are they willing to sign a multi-year deal? If not, they may have to be on the move as well.
Re-Sign Dahlin
On top of all of this, the other intended franchise pillar in defenseman Rasmus Dahlin is also in need of a new contract as he enters restricted free agency. Like pretty much everyone for Buffalo, this season was an abject disaster. After recording 40 points in the pandemic-shortened 2019-20 season, expectations were understandably high that he could become one of the elite offensive blueliners which would have him extremely well-positioned to get a second deal similar to Florida’s Aaron Ekblad ($7.5MM) or Ottawa’s Thomas Chabot ($8MM). Instead, he had just 23 points in 56 games along with an eye-popping -36 rating which stood out as the low outlier on a team full of poor minus ratings.
It’s not all doom and gloom for the 2018 first-overall pick, however. Dahlin still projects to be a key piece of Buffalo’s rebuild, even if that gets extended by moving some of their veteran players over the next few months. One of the decisions that Adams will have to make is whether or not to pursue a long-term contract or to work out a bridge deal that allows both sides to reassess his value down the road.
One of the challenges with a long-term pact that buys out some UFA eligibility is that Dahlin’s value isn’t what it was a summer ago when he could have signed an extension. He may still be a big part of their plans but the season he had simply cannot have bolstered his asking price. Accordingly, is he even willing to entertain a long-term deal now where he could be leaving some money on the table if he rebounds over the next couple of seasons?
With Dahlin not being eligible for salary arbitration, this one will probably be towards the back of the pile as it can be pushed until closer to training camp if it has to. Even so, this is a significant item on their to-do list.
Coaching Decision
On top of needing a new goalie or two, dealing with the discontent of their star and other key veterans and having to re-sign one of their pillars on the back end, Adams has to make a call on who is going to coach the team or whatever is left of it by then. Don Granato did a relatively nice job after taking over for Krueger despite the 9-16-3 record and helped get the Sabres out of their funk. They surprised some playoff teams down the stretch. Was that a matter of good coaching or teams playing looser when they’re eliminated? It’s a question that many interim coaches have to go through when they take over for a non-playoff team midseason.
There were several veteran coaches on the market already before John Tortorella and Rick Tocchet were added in recent days. There may be others that hit the market in the coming days as well. There will be options and Adams has said he’ll cast a wide net but they’re hardly going to be the only team on the lookout as well with Columbus and Arizona already in need of new bench bosses as well. Patience in finding the right fit is never a bad idea but with others that will be going after the top options, they may have to move quickly if they decide that Granato isn’t the long-term solution.
Needless to say, there’s an awful lot that Buffalo will need to get done between now and the start of next season. It’s going to be a fascinating offseason for them as a result.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.