Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the Rangers and their long-term center situation, some candidates to step up for the Lightning this season, players that have a shot at having their tryouts converted to an NHL contract, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

jchancel: If the NYR are going to sign Zibanejad long term, what salaries do they move if they want to sign a front-line center? Personally, I’d like to see who they could possibly get that would play better with Panarin than Strome has. I know his faceoff % and defensive abilities aren’t the best, but he plays a very adequate game feeding Panarin.

Stop the Eichel nonsense!!! Crazy to overpay for damaged goods. If he’s gettable for two returns and a draft pick maybe. But not all your youth!!

I don’t see a scenario where they can afford to give Mika Zibanejad the long-term contract he’s seeking and still try to bring in a number one center.  With Artemi Panarin not going anywhere and their young core heading for pricier deals in a hurry – headlined by Adam Fox next summer – they’re not going to be able to carry two high-priced pivots on their roster.  If they were absolutely adamant about trying to add another impact center (perhaps a high-end second option), Chris Kreider feels like the one that they’d try to move.  His contract probably won’t age well and with the young wingers they have coming, he could be pushed down the depth chart in a hurry.

I understand the temptation to try to upgrade on Ryan Strome given his track record but at some point, he deserves some credit at least.  Yes, he plays well with Panarin but it shouldn’t necessarily be taken for granted that whichever potential upgrade they try to get will have similar chemistry.  It could be better but it could be worse.  I’m not necessarily advocating that they keep him but at the frequency he’s thrown into trade suggestions, it should at least be said that he has had the best two seasons of his career in the last two years.  That should count for something.

Eichel’s trade value is dipping right now but I don’t see Buffalo accepting that low of a return for him at this point.  With the Sabres not trying to compete, I think they’re perfectly content dragging this out a little while longer.

denny816: If the Rangers do not see a considerable jump in production from Kaapo Kakko (assuming he is given an increased role for the upcoming season), could you see Drury dangling him and one of their plethora of young defense prospects to fill the hole they have at center?

That would certainly make sense in theory but at the same time, if Kakko doesn’t have a big jump in production, how much does his trade value drop?  I wouldn’t want to put him into ‘bust’ territory but there’s no doubt it would make it harder for him to be the centerpiece of such a move.  If they had any inclination of trying to move Kakko for a center, it may make more sense to try to do it now.  There’s some risk in that Kakko breaks out elsewhere but if he landed a promising young, cost-controllable pivot, it could be worth doing sooner than later.

The Captain 11: The NYR are in a no-win situation with the center position right now. Both Zibanejad and Strome are UFA after this season. They have no internal options to replace them and it doesn’t look like there are upgrades available in the 2022 UFA market. Are there any possible RFA’s ripe for an offer sheet possibly?

Do the NYR overpay both Zibanejad and Strome in both money and term or do they trade one or both to not risk losing them for nothing? With Dolan mandating making the playoffs (or something close to that), it seems like the latter is off the table. A true no-win situation for Drury. I don’t see Chytil as a center moving forward even though Drury recently said he does see it. Barron might make a good 3C one day but prob needs more seasoning and some time before being ready. Most people have them both as better suited to wing.

Also, is it me or do the NYR seem to have an organizational aversion to drafting and developing centers? Very few really good centers have been drafted as they tend to get them through trade and free agency.

And, does Gallant finally break up the trio of pairs? Kreider/Zibanejad, Strome/Panarin, Kakko/Chytil. Should they name Kreider captain, would it be a smart move to slide him to the 3rd line and ease that burden on him a bit while simultaneously giving Laffy a good look on the top line?

Let’s stick with the Rangers for one more set of questions.  If you’re looking for a proven option, an offer sheet probably isn’t the best route to try to go.  Even if they find an impact center they like, how much will it cost to get them to sign and get the team to walk away?  Carolina more than doubled Jesperi Kotkaniemi’s value and even then, it was far from a guarantee that Montreal wouldn’t match.  Let’s say there’s a center worth $6MM in the RFA class that is willing to sign an offer sheet, they’re going to have to offer substantially more than that to get the team to walk away.  That’s more cap space and draft picks down the drain and if you’re going upwards of $8MM to $9MM, wouldn’t they be better off just keeping Zibanejad?

I don’t see Zibanejad being moved in-season (I think he re-signs) and if the Rangers are in the mix, I don’t think Strome moves either.  There’s always risk to that approach but it’s hard to see them voluntarily weakening their playoff fortunes to add a pick or a prospect.

I don’t think the Rangers have an aversion to drafting centers.  Chytil and Lias Andersson were both drafted as first-round centers and that was just in 2017.  Kakko and Lafreniere are wingers, sure, but they were the consensus top options where they were picked; reaching for a center wouldn’t have made sense.  In between that, they added a pair of decent winger prospects and a pretty good defenseman in K’Andre Miller.  Sometimes, sticking with BPA over positional need pays off in terms of stockpiling assets.  Now, they’ll have to develop those into trade chips to fill the need unless Chytil is able to establish himself there.

Line combos are meant to be shuffled around so sure, Gallant will probably split them up at points, especially in training camp.  Kreider will be on the third line down the road but if they want to keep his value high (if they have eyes on trading him for cap flexibility purposes), moving him down would make that hard.  That would also take the captaincy off the table.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Zibanejad is named captain if they get an extension worked out before the season starts.

Jack10: Which prospect(s) from the defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning will have the biggest impact, if any after their free agent signings, during the upcoming season in which they have lost their entire 3rd line from their back-to-back championships?

I mentioned him in a recent mailbag but I’ll go again with Alex Barre-Boulet here.  He produced at a high-end rate in junior.  He went to the minors and produced at a high-end rate in both of his full seasons while averaging more than a point per game in limited action last year.  His NHL numbers don’t stand out – three goals in 15 games – but it was his first taste of NHL action.  He’s someone I see having a limited role to start but working his way up into an important secondary scoring role before too long.

He’s slightly more proven but I’ll also add Mathieu Joseph to the mix.  He may not be a true prospect but he’s only a few months older than Barre-Boulet.  He has had a limited role so far in his career but he’s someone who should play higher in the lineup now.  He has produced in the past and if he does this season, he’ll be a very interesting restricted free agent next summer with salary arbitration rights.

The Duke: Let’s once again dust off the Mailbag’s Crystal Ball, which sees all & knows all: 1. Fastest path to – and most scoring success in – a top-six role between Newhook, Krebs, Veleno & Tomasino? 2. Brightest scoring future between Eklund, Raymond & Holtz? And lastly 3. the top three scoring forwards in NJ’s next 3-4 years? As always, much thanks.

1) The fastest path should be Nashville’s Philip Tomasino as there’s a very good chance he’ll be in that role this season.  The Predators didn’t exactly add up front this summer with an eye on giving some youngsters like him and Eeli Tolvanen a chance to step up.  Alex Newhook will get there at some point but it won’t be this season.  Peyton Krebs will need some time in the minors and Joseph Veleno I suspect will be more of a high-end third liner than a top-six guy.  Long term, Newhook might have the best path to success if he eventually ascends to the 2C role in Colorado but for the upcoming season, Tomasino should have the most points.

2) If we go strictly with SHL success, it’d be William Eklund who had a nice showing with Djurgardens last season where he was a teammate of Alexander Holtz.  But I’ll take Lucas Raymond, who is going to be a focal point of Detroit’s rebuild that will eventually come to an end, to slightly outscore the others.  All three should be impact players before too long though.

3) I expect Jack Hughes to continue to develop offensively so he’ll certainly be in that mix.  So, too, should Nico Hischier.  Holtz won’t play enough to have a shot at that and I don’t see many high-scoring forwards coming out of the rest of their group.  I’d like to take Dougie Hamilton as I think he’ll out-produce the rest of their forwards over that stretch but he’s a defenseman.  I’m not sold on Yegor Sharangovich being a key long-term piece for them but he’ll be around long enough to get an honest look so I’ll give him the slight edge for the third forward slot.

ericl: If the Bruins struggle to find a center who plays well with Hall, who are some centers that could be available as the trade deadline approaches that could be possible trade targets?

Max Domi would be one but I touched on that scenario earlier this month already so I won’t get into that one here.  I suspect the target would be a rental with an eye on extending the right fit which is basically what they did with Taylor Hall.  A lot will depend on where teams are at the deadline as to whether they’re selling or not so keep in mind that these names could wind up not being available midseason.

I’d look at someone like Joe Pavelski as a primary target if the Stars aren’t in the playoff race.  Dallas would need to retain and Boston would still need to send a salary offset but if they’re making one last run with this core and their internal options can’t get the job done, I would be surprised if he wasn’t Plan ‘A’.

Ryan Strome’s future with the Rangers is in question and if they’re not in the mix, he’s someone that could move.  He’s another question mark but his price tag would be more affordable.  Paul Stastny would be a good fit if Winnipeg is out of contention and now that his AAV is lower, Ryan Getzlaf is more palatable at the deadline as well.  I doubt all of these players will be available but if they’re thinking about a possible rental player already, these players could very well be on the list.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Toronto’s playoff potential, Philadelphia’s summer shuffle and goaltending situation, predictions for some surprises this season, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

jimmertee: Can the Leafs ever win in the playoffs with Matthews on the team and the core that’s getting paid so much money but don’t produce in the playoffs? How long do the Leafs stick with that core?

I think they can definitely win a round although that’s about as far as I’m willing to go this season; Tampa Bay is in their division after all and would be the likely favorite in what would be a second-round matchup.  They’ve come close enough in recent years and have done some things well; a good bounce here and there and they’d have won a series already.  So no, this core isn’t doomed to lose forever and they can definitely get over the proverbial hump.

There really isn’t an easy jumping-off point with this core, especially among their four high-priced forwards.  High-paid players are hard enough to move and getting top value for them will be even harder.  It’s not that those players aren’t any good but moving and matching money is going to be tough for a while.  The overall core group will weaken as the flattened salary cap ultimately prevents players from re-signing but I believe they’re locked into this team structure for a few more years yet.

wreckage: Do you see anyone declining an invite to play at the Olympics?

I’m assuming you’re asking on the political and public pressure fronts.  Lots can change as we get closer to February so this answer may not hold up in the end but I’m going to say no.  There hasn’t been a chance for an NHL player to participate in eight years so it’s going to be the first opportunity for many and the last chance for many others.  It’s hard to pass up on that.

There’s also the fact that the NHL isn’t overly enthusiastic about long-term participation in this event.  There’s a commitment to try for 2026 but after that, if they can rekindle and make money off the World Cup, they’re going to push for that so Olympic participation is hardly a guarantee.  With the opportunities being so infrequent, I just can’t see anyone declining for that reason.  Players will withdraw/decline due to injury but I think that will be the only reason.

Black Ace57: After a busy offseason, is this going to be the make-or-break year for the Flyers? At this point, if they can’t play up to expectations is there really any option but retooling for a year or two?

It sure feels like there’s a lot riding on this season, doesn’t it?  GM Chuck Fletcher has made several key changes to their roster with the additions of Cam Atkinson, Ryan Ellis, and Rasmus Ristolainen with the sole design of getting back to the playoffs and doing some damage when they get there.  If that doesn’t happen, changes are going to be made.

Claude Giroux is an unrestricted free agent next summer and he’s someone whose odds of returning will likely directly be tied to Philadelphia’s success.  Once James van Riemsdyk moves to being an expiring contract which happens next summer, he’s likelier to be gone as well.  Those two leaving would be another significant retooling.  We’ll see what happens with Ristolainen, another pending UFA, as well.

With the commitments they have on the books already – nearly $66MM in a dozen players per CapFriendly – a big overhaul seems less likely so while there could be a big name or two coming and going again, most of the core would stay intact so I like your classification of a retool instead of a rebuild in that situation.

Emoney123: Do the Flyers have a goalie problem? Hart is coming off a down year so should he be looking over his shoulder at Sandstrom, Ersson, Ustimenko, Ross, Tomek, and Fedotov? Is there a generational talent in there somewhere or just prospects hyped by the organization?

I’ll answer the second one first.  No, there isn’t a generational goalie in the pipeline.  I’m not even sure there’s an NHL starting goalie in there let alone a rare elite talent.  Samuel Ersson has some upside but he needs to do well in North America before calling him good enough to potentially push Carter Hart for playing time.

So, is that a problem?  I’m not ready to call it that yet.  I expect Hart to bounce back playing behind an improved defensive group and even if he isn’t a long-term star netminder, they’ll settle for someone that’s capable of being a decent starter.  He’s 23, signed for three years and under team control for four.  That’s a good foundation and finding a capable second goalie is certainly doable although I don’t think they necessarily landed one in Martin Jones who they’re also hoping will benefit behind a better defense.  If they have to reallocate some cap space to goaltending, they should be able to get a better backup to push Hart and, in the process, give them at a minimum a serviceable tandem.  If you have that, it’s not a problem.

In the meantime, adding a quality goalie prospect should be fairly high on the priority list.

YzerPlan19: Predictions for Bennett and Reinhart in Florida’s top six? Can Reinhart get 30 goals playing on Barkov’s wing? Did they bring him in to add more offense or does he slot in at 3C? Can Bennett exorcise his demons and continue on a point per game clip as 2C with Huberdeau?

I can’t see Florida paying a first-round pick and a pretty good goalie prospect in Devon Levi to have Sam Reinhart play on the third line.  He’s there to be an impact scorer and will be in their top six, potentially on the wing alongside Aleksander Barkov.  I think he’s absolutely capable of scoring 30 this season.  Very quietly, he scored at a 38-goal pace last season on a Buffalo team that was bereft of offense.  Put him in a more offensive-oriented environment while still being with a high-end center and 30 is definitely attainable.

Bennett, to me, is one of the biggest wildcards in the league.  I don’t think he’s going to be able to keep playing at a point-per-game pace as he did after the trade.  10 regular season games is a pretty small sample size as is five playoff contests.  But he absolutely can put up more than he was providing with Calgary.  If he had a 45-50-point season while being a capable center and playing with plenty of grit, I think they’d take that.  If he can hover closer to that point per game mark though, his contract will wind up being one of the better bargains in the league.

pawtucket: What are your top surprises in each division? Could be team, player, standings, whatever.

Atlantic: Will Butcher (Buffalo) gets back to being an impact offensive defenseman.  He was a bit better down the stretch in New Jersey but was still given away (with retention).  He’s not going to a winning environment but he will have a chance to play a bigger role and has the offensive skills to be a real weapon.  With his lowered price tag ($2.822MM after retention), he becomes one of the most sought-after rentals at the trade deadline.

Metropolitan: Columbus doesn’t bottom out and finish last in the division.  They’ve blown up their roster and at some point, one of their two pending UFA goalies is going to have to go as well.  The end result is a mishmash of players that are supposed to have the Blue Jackets contending for the top pick.  They’re not making the playoffs but they’ll be more competitive than many realize at and the end of the day, someone else is last in the Metro.

Central: Vladimir Tarasenko (St. Louis) is still with the Blues after the trade deadline.  There’s a mutual desire for a change of scenery and he has been in all sorts of trade speculation but they don’t want to give him away in case he bounces back.  Tarasenko produces close to a 20-goal level which still isn’t a good return on a $7.5MM AAV but it’s enough that they decide to hold onto him.  Many expect him to move – particularly since they need to re-sign Robert Thomas – but someone else becomes the cap casualty to make that happen.

Pacific: Nolan Patrick is this year’s Chandler Stephenson.  Stephenson’s trade to Vegas gave him a chance to play a bigger role and he certainly made the most of it.  Now, Patrick, freed somewhat from the expectations that come from being a second-overall pick, has a similar opportunity and puts up 35-40 points, giving the Golden Knights the center depth they’ve lacked lately.  He’s not going to be the number one that would make a huge difference but he’ll be a big part of their secondary core, not too shabby for a reclamation project.

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