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Looking At Max Domi’s Impending Free Agency

at CDT | by 8 Comments

After taking a look at the upcoming free agency situation of Vincent Trocheck, we now pivot to looking at the future of his Hurricanes teammate, Max Domi. Tonight Domi hit an important milestone in his career: 500 NHL games played. Domi is famously the son of enforcer Tie Domi, who spent the majority of his career with just one team: the Toronto Maple Leafs. The stability that Tie Domi found once he established himself in Toronto is not something Max has managed in his career, and as a pending unrestricted free agent, the second Domi looks set to potentially land on the fifth NHL team of his career despite being just 27 years old.

As we previously mentioned when going over the situation of Trocheck, the Hurricanes already have significant cap dollars tied to their forward corps, (and more specifically their top three centers) and have important extensions to consider down the line. As a result, it is likely that Domi, who arrived in Carolina as part of a buzzer-beating deadline-day trade, is a pure rental for the team. So the former London Knights star looks primed to hit the unrestricted free-agent market for the first time in his career.

But what should his market look like? Domi is a bit of an enigmatic player. He is very talented offensively, having produced at an elite level once before (when he had 72 points for the Montreal Canadiens in the 2018-19 season) and having the overall skill level to appear on highlight reels. Additionally, Domi plays with a level of energy and enthusiasm that one would expect from the son of Tie Domi, and he plays a style that allows him to quickly endear himself to fans. Although coaches have mostly preferred to keep him on the wing, Domi also has experience playing center, which adds to his value. But with those positives comes a sometimes maddening level of inconsistency, as well as a shaky defensive game. Domi butted heads with coach John Tortorella in Columbus, and near the end of his tenure in Montreal, he found himself relegated to fourth-line center duty. So despite his intriguing package of skills and desirable work ethic, Domi’s overall offering as a free agent is more mixed than it may initially seem.

All of those factors make assessing what Domi could cost on the open market a challenging prospect. With many players, there are typically some generally accurate comparable players to use as a benchmark for estimating what kind of contract a player can command in free agency. But with Domi, are there many comparables that make sense for his situation? One tool we have to assess how Domi is viewed leaguewide is his trade value. It’s not perfect, as there are a whole host of factors that go into an in-season trade that are not present in the summer, but it can paint a somewhat accurate picture. 

Domi’s trade was a complicated three-way deal that involved a “cap broker” and multiple assets being swapped just to account for the financial aspects of the deal. But in the end, the Blue Jackets, the team trading Domi, got just one asset in return for him, the rights to prospect defenseman Aidan Hreschuk, a 19-year-old playing for Boston College. Hreschuk was a third-round pick in 2021 and had 8 points in 37 games in this NCAA season. If that return is any indication, Domi’s value has declined sharply since a few years ago, when he was the main return in Columbus’ Josh Anderson trade and earned a contract worth over $5MM AAV.

This offseason’s market for offensive skill players is one that theoretically offers teams many options, with elite scorers such as Johnny Gaudreau, Filip Forsberg, and Nazem Kadri as the headliners, meaning Domi may not be the beneficiary of a bidding war caused by an imbalance between the supply and demand of scoring talent on the market. That means that Domi may not reach the $5.3MM AAV mark he is currently earning if he wants a long-term contract. But if Domi wants a shorter-term deal, one where he can prioritize role and fit in order to re-enter the market on the back of a better platform year, that would likely make him a desirable player for many cap-strapped teams. Domi’s 2018-19 season showed that he can score at a high level in the NHL, but he hasn’t come close to that since. His decision this offseason regarding where he wants to sign as a first-time UFA could determine if he reaches those heights again.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Looking At Vincent Trocheck’s Impending Free Agency

at CDT | by 11 Comments

The Carolina Hurricanes have been one of the NHL’s best teams over the past several seasons, and a major reason for that success has been their depth down the middle. The team has Sebastian Aho, one of the best centers in hockey, and Jordan Staal, who is in his tenth season with the club. In addition to those two, the team has had Vincent Trocheck since a February 2020 trade with Florida, but they may not have him for much longer. Trocheck, 28, is set to be an unrestricted free agent for the first time in his career, as the six-year, $4.75MM AAV contract he signed as a 23-year-old Panther is set to expire at the end of this season. With the Hurricanes having extended offseason addition Jesperi Kotkaniemi, getting him under contract until 2029-30 at $4.82MM against the cap, it looks as though Trocheck may be forced to join the third team of his career if he wants to maximize his earnings this summer.

That is not his preference, though. In an interview with Matt Larkin of Daily Faceoff, Trocheck reiterated his desire to stay in Carolina, saying:

That’s still the goal, to be here. I love being a Hurricane and having a chance to win every year is where you want to be. So hopefully we can figure something out.

As previously mentioned, though, staying in Carolina may not make financial sense for both the team and the player. The team has committed nearly $20MM for next season to the trio of Staal, Aho, and Kotkaniemi, and with other significant contracts on the books already, things are getting tight. Additionally, Vezina Trophy hopeful Frederik Andersen will need an extension after next season, meaning with all that in mind, Trocheck may be the player who becomes the odd man out this summer.

It may even be probable. With the extension to Tomas Hertl, the offseason’s center market is looking a bit thin. Beyond breakout Avalanche star Nazem Kadri, there aren’t many players available on this summer’s market who can play center and have a scoring pedigree. It is expected that franchise icons Evgeni Malkin and Patrice Bergeron will re-up with the only NHL clubs they have ever known, and Florida’s Claude Giroux has been more of a winger than a center in recent years. That leaves Trocheck and the Rangers’ Ryan Strome as the only two centers set to hit the market this offseason who have even crossed the 35-point mark in 2021-22, meaning the market for Trocheck this summer should be very player-friendly.

Trocheck has had a nice season in Carolina, with 20 goals and 48 points in 79 games. This is Trocheck’s fourth season where he has reached the 20-goal plateau, and he potted 17 in only 47 games last season. Trocheck also has flashed even higher levels of offensive upside, as he hit 31 goals and 75 points in the 2017-18 season with the Panthers. In addition to his offense, Trocheck has a decently well-rounded defensive game, and he ranks third among Hurricanes forwards in shorthanded time-on-ice per game. So, in short, Trocheck is a two-way center that can help a team defensively and add 20 goals and 50 points as a baseline level of offensive production. Players like that get paid on the open market, and with the aforementioned dearth of quality centers in this offseason’s free-agent class, Trocheck is lined up to get a major contract.

So even if his preference is to remain in Carolina, money is typically the ultimate deciding factor for most players, (and rightfully so) meaning Trocheck’s time as a Hurricane is likely coming to an end. But that leaves a question to be considered: with comparable centers like Kevin Hayes crossing the $7MM AAV threshold in their long-term free-agent contracts, is $7MM+ per year on a long-term contract an appropriate price to pay for a player like Trocheck, someone who is an accomplished all-around center but far from a superstar?

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

PHR Mailbag: Trophy Predictions, Kraken, UFAs, Kadri, Kings, Projections, Draft, Blue Jackets, Red Wings, Blues

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include early award predictions, an assessment of Nazem Kadri’s pending free agency, surplus depth for the Kings, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back for it in last weekend’s mailbag.

NHATrang: How about some predictions for the major trophies: Hart, Norris, Vezina, Selke?

Hart Trophy – Auston Matthews (Toronto) – With there being several quality candidates, a strong finish could give someone the boost to get the award.  Right now, Matthews is having quite the strong finish to his season and has a good chance at hitting 60 goals.  That should make him the front-runner.

Norris Trophy – Roman Josi (Nashville) – There’s a very good case to make for Colorado’s Cale Makar but Josi has the better offensive numbers and whether we like it or not, that will stand out to some voters.  I think what also will help Josi is that the Predators weren’t expected to be a playoff threat while the Avs have been viewed as contenders all season.  Josi helping lead Nashville into the thick of the playoff race will carry some weight.

Vezina Trophy – Igor Shesterkin (NY Rangers) – He’s first in the NHL in save percentage (.935) and second in goals against average (2.10) and while he hasn’t had quite as high of a workload as some other starters, he has played enough that it won’t be held against him.  It’s his to lose down the stretch.

Selke Trophy – Patrice Bergeron (Boston) – He still is elite at faceoffs, his possession numbers are elite, he kills penalties, and still contributes at a top-line level.  He hasn’t won in four years but has been a finalist each time and there’s no reason to think he won’t be in the mix.  If some writers think this could be his final year as some have speculated, that could garner him a few first-place votes as well from those who may want to send him off on top.

Tim Wilson: Much has been made of the poor performance of Seattle’s goaltending tandem in their first season. I’m wondering how the Kraken’s team defensive stats such as shots allowed compare to Grubauer and Driedger’s 20/21 teams, Colorado and Florida.

Seattle is only allowing 29.1 shots per game this season, the fourth-fewest in the entire league and second-fewest in the Western Conference.  They’re trying to play a defensively responsible style knowing that they don’t have the firepower to win and have done a decent job at doing so.  For comparison, Colorado last year was tops in the league at just 25.4 while Florida was in the middle of the pack at 30.0.

A lot of their struggles simply stem from poor goaltending.  Philipp Grubauer is dead last among qualifying goaltenders at -29.9 goals saved above expected, per Moneypuck.  That’s just in 50 games too, or 0.6 extra per game on average than he should be allowing.  How many more wins would Seattle have if he was strictly middle of the pack hovering around the zero mark in that stat?  They wouldn’t be a playoff team but they wouldn’t be battling for the top draft lottery odds either.  Chris Driedger has done better at -1.1 goals saved above expected so he’s basically average on that front.

If you’re looking for some reason for optimism, Grubauer has been a good goalie for a while now and it’s not as if he somehow forgot how to play the position upon signing with Seattle.  I’m confident he’ll be a lot better next season.  Probably not enough to get them into the playoffs – they have a long way to go before that happens – but their goaltending shouldn’t be anywhere near this level in 2022-23.

Y2KAK: Early top FA predictions please!!!

This is a tough one to answer right now in that the season isn’t over yet so there’s still the potential for some fluctuation in players’ values.  Personally, I don’t dig in too much into the UFA group in terms of fits and potential contracts until we start working on our annual Top 50 UFA post which is still more than two months away.  But here’s a very quick overview of some of the bigger names.

Johnny Gaudreau – Re-signs in Calgary.  Matthew Tkachuk’s pending RFA contract will definitely make this a tough squeeze but there’s a way to make it work if they go with a lot of minimum-salary players to round out the roster.

Nazem Kadri – I’ll look at him in more detail shortly but I don’t see him staying with Colorado.

Filip Forsberg – Re-signs with Nashville.  There’s mutual interest in getting a deal done and while it’s going to contain elements the Predators don’t like (signing bonuses and trade protection), they won’t let that ultimately nix a new contract.

Penguins – Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang re-sign, Bryan Rust moves on.  Malkin winds up a little lower than his current AAV while Letang is a bit higher.  If they could find a way to move Jason Zucker without taking salary back, they might be able to take a late run at Rust as well.

Patrice Bergeron – Re-signs with Boston.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they go year-to-year from here on out, allowing for some creativity in terms of salary and performance bonus structure.

Claude Giroux – He’s not re-signing with Florida, that’s pretty much a given.  There seems to be a bit of smoke with his hometown Senators and that would make a lot of sense as that team needs an impact veteran to really round out their improving forward group.

John Klingberg – I wouldn’t be shocked if Dallas eventually worked out a deal with him but for now, I’ll say he moves on.  If Detroit is ready to flip the switch and go for it, I think they’ll be seriously in the mix at least.

Ville Husso – I pegged him to New Jersey in a hypothetical scenario in last weekend’s mailbag so I’ll stick with them.

M34: What are Kadri’s next contract terms and which team gives it to him?

Boy, did Kadri ever pick a good time for a career year.  He sits 13th in league scoring heading into today’s action and, perhaps more notably, sixth above centers.  What better way to argue that he’s capable of being a top pivot than by being among the top-scoring middlemen in the league.

That said, I don’t he’s going to be able to command the type of deal that a top-producing center typically would.  He’ll be 32 when next season starts so there will be concern about a drop-off occurring sooner than later.  His previous career high in points is 61 so it’s not as if there’s a track record of him scoring like this.  Plus, there’s his lengthy suspension history – six in total.  At this point, the suspensions are getting more severe each time to the point where his next one could be in the double-digits.  That will make some teams hesitant.

In spite of all that, he’s heading for a nice contract.  His maximum term, assuming it’s not Colorado that re-signs him, is seven years and while teams may not want to sign him for that long, that final year or two could be used to smooth out the AAV a little bit.  So I’ll say he gets the max-term with a seven-year deal with an AAV around $8MM.  I don’t think he’ll be worth that contract in the end but he plays a premium position which will help to mitigate some of the aforementioned concerns.

W H Twittle: What can the L.A. Kings be expected to do with their prospects who are mostly RDs or Cs? Cs can be moved to the wings if they can score. But moving defensemen to their wrong side is seldom a good move. Do they start looking to trade a few prospects this summer or before the draft for the players they feel will help them next year?

While it isn’t ideal to have defensemen on their wrong side, it’s quite common.  Most NHL teams have at least one blueliner on his off-side in each game.  It’s usually a lefty on the right but it’s not implausible that a righty can go on the left if need be.  I’m also not convinced it’s a logjam they need to deal with right now.  Jordan Spence could plausibly be back in the minors, leaving Drew Doughty, Matt Roy, and Sean Durzi as the three that break camp.  It’s not a situation that necessarily has to be dealt with in the near future.

As for their center situation, I agree that some can move to the wing but that is a short-term solution.  Potential impact centers are always in high demand but the Kings could run the risk of devaluing them if they stay on the wing for too long.  If they’re shifting towards win-now mode, yes, moving some of that surplus could make sense.  The question is who to move.  They probably don’t want to move Alex Turcotte while Gabriel Vilardi and Lias Andersson have seen their value dip; Rasmus Kupari has had a nice year in a depth role but his value isn’t sky-high.  If they think Turcotte still could be a top center a few years from now, that could make Quinton Byfield the one to watch for if they want to move a promising youngster for a shorter-term difference-maker.

The Duke: All-knowing and -seeing MB Crystal Ball, please weigh in on the following queries: 1. How do the SJS and Preds’ goaltending shake out next season and the next few years? 2. Career trajectories for Mssrs Zadina & Sandin (are either on new teams soon)? 3. And finally, what team does John Gibson suit up for next season? As always, much thanks.

1) Let’s look at San Jose first.  Obviously, they need to move a goalie this summer.  My guess is that it’s James Reimer as whoever is GM at that time will likely want to give the two younger goals (Adin Hill and Kaapo Kahkonen) a longer look.  They’re both 25 at the moment and in a perfect world, that’s their tandem for the foreseeable future.  They don’t have a top goalie prospect in their system and as they have several high-priced contracts for a while, they need to go with cheaper options.  A platoon costing somewhere between $6MM to $7MM combined would help so I expect those two will be given a chance to be longer-term options.

As for Nashville, theirs is a little easier to predict.  I don’t see anyone supplanting Juuse Saros as the starter as long as Saros is under contract which is through the 2024-25 season.  By then, Yaroslav Askarov should be NHL-ready.  They’ll need a bridge backup for a couple of years – someone like Reimer would make a lot of sense, to be honest – but there will be several of those available in free agency each year so they could just look to go year-to-year with low-cost options.

2) Filip Zadina – I have my doubts that he’ll be able to live up to his draft billing and become the top-line winger many felt he had the potential to be.  That said, he certainly has some offensive talent which will keep him in the league for a while.  I could see him being a player who hovers around 40-50 points most years (slightly higher at times) and bounces between the second and third lines.  That’s a pretty good career trajectory overall even if it’s a bit underwhelming relative to where he was picked.  As for being on a new team in the somewhat near future, I think there’s a good chance that happens.

Rasmus Sandin – I’ve talked about him in the past and I don’t see him being a high-end point-getter in the NHL.  To me, he projects as a secondary offensive threat, someone that will have a floor of 25 points every year and could creep up over 40 in a good year.  I also see no reason why Toronto would want to move him anytime soon, they need cost-controllable blueliners and he’ll be that for a little while yet, even through his first (and possibly second) trip through restricted free agency.

3) Unless Gibson wants out and makes it known, I have no reason to think it won’t be Anaheim.  If you go back and look at the trade market for good goalies, the word underwhelming comes to mind.  When was the last time an above average goalie that was signed for several more seasons was moved for a return that made you think ‘wow, that’s a really good trade’?  Certainly not lately.  If the options are either take an underwhelming return or hold onto Gibson, the latter path is the right way to go for them.

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PHR Mailbag: Islanders, Flyers, Sharks, Weber, Wright, Devils Goaltending, Draft, Prospect Rights, Wild

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what’s next for Philadelphia, Shea Weber’s contract, guessing the future of New Jersey’s goaltending, an overview of how long teams can hold the rights to a prospect, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag column.

FearTheWilson: The Islanders have one of the oldest teams in the league, limited cap space, lack scoring depth, and need to sign some defensemen this summer. Is there any way out of this mess or will they be just another team who came close but couldn’t win?

Based on GM Lou Lamoriello’s recent extensions, the plan to get out of their struggles is to double down on the current core.  I get why as the core group is decent, Ilya Sorokin is a solid goalie and the way they play works in the playoffs.  With a more normal schedule that doesn’t involve a 13-game road trip to start the season that’s followed by a particularly rough COVID outbreak, they very well could have been in the mix.

They can save some money if they can find a suitable trade for Semyon Varlamov and find a cheaper backup which would allow them to put a couple million or so into their back end (or another offensive forward), that would help.  And with Noah Dobson being the only impact player that needs a new contract, they will have a bit of wiggle room to try to upgrade the roster.

In Lamoriello’s eyes at least, the solution is a couple of roster improvements and stability.  If they get that, then they should be in the Wild Card mix and as we’ve seen, if they can get into the playoffs in 2023 with the group they have and the way they play, they could win a round or two.

Black Ace57: What is the Flyers’ plan? They haven’t really established a core ready to contend and they don’t want to rebuild.

In Fletch We Trust: Thoughts on Flyers HC for next year? Is Chuck gonna stick with Yeo? Or does he (I hope) see the need to go outside the organization and find someone to help change the culture?

Let’s combine the Flyers questions.  The second part of the first question actually is the framework for their plan.  To me, it seems like they think they have enough quality core pieces in place to be a playoff-caliber team.  Make a couple of tweaks, hope for some better luck with injuries (Ryan Ellis and Sean Couturier in particular), and they could very well be in the thick of a Wild Card battle a year from now.  I know things haven’t gone well lately but I look at that team on paper and think it has the potential to be a lot more competitive than they’ve shown this season.

I’m particularly interested to see what happens in free agency.  Do they find a way to clear James van Riemsdyk’s deal off the roster and try to go after a big fish to basically replace Claude Giroux?  I suspect that is their intention and if they can find a way to add another core piece, their fortunes could turn around fairly quickly.  Not to the point of being a contender, mind you, but their approach feels like the target is simply to get to the playoffs and a few tweaks could theoretically be enough to get them there.

Speaking of tweaks, I expect this will be one of them.  I’d be surprised if Mike Yeo has the interim tag lifted at the end of the season.  He’s the holdover from Alain Vigneault’s staff and it’s not as if they’ve been better since the coaching change.  If GM Chuck Fletcher truly believes in this core, a new voice is one card that can be played to try to give this team a spark and potentially provide a culture change as well.  Having someone currently around the team on a day-to-day basis behind the bench would make it very difficult to accomplish that particular objective.

Nha Trang: San Jose: $70 million committed next year to only 17 NHL contracts, and major bucks committed to elderly, underproducing players. Buy out Vlasic? Someone else? Bribe another team to take Burns’ or Karlsson’s contract off their hands? Hold their noses and pray? What’s the solution?

A buyout of Marc-Edouard Vlasic’s contract would only push the problem down the road as the varied structure of the deal actually would yield buyout costs of roughly $4.2MM in 2024-25 and $5.2MM in 2025-26.  Sure, they’d save a fair bit on the first two seasons but that’s only a short-term fix.

They’re going to have to move a goalie – presumably either Adin Hill or James Reimer – which will save a little over $2MM in cap room but most of that will be redirected to Kaapo Kahkonen.  I suspect they will try to get out of Radim Simek’s deal and with only two years left on it, they may be able to find a taker in a swap that would bring a forward back.  Even Nick Bonino’s deal could be replaced with someone making a bit less.

There is, of course, one other wild card – Evander Kane.  Will their contract termination stand without any cap penalties or will there be some sort of retroactive penalty similar to Mike Richards and the Kings in the past?  If yes, how much will it cost?  That will help determine if there is a bigger cost-cutting move to make.

As things stand, I think they can fill out their roster and be cap-compliant next year.  They won’t be any better than they are now but it may be their only viable solution.  They’re in a tough spot and they don’t have the prospect pool to get themselves out of trouble just yet.  In the summer of 2023, Brent Burns is only down to two years left which will make him a little easier to move than he is now.  Vlasic would be down to three years and maybe a move is slightly easier then.  In the meantime, they’re going to need to just tread water.

W H Twittle: Are there teams other than Vegas and Minnesota that may be interested in Shea Weber’s contract? And why?

I don’t think either of those teams would be interested in him at all.  Minnesota’s was suggested as a hypothetical and it was quickly pointed out that it wouldn’t work for them and since then, there has been no suggestion that they’re actually interested.  As for Vegas, why would they take on four years of an LTIR contract?  Yes, it’s quite possible they try for another LTIR deal if they want to try the Evgenii Dadonov move again but there are contracts that can be acquired that are a lot shorter than four years.  It stands to reason they’d opt for one of those.  Ryan Kesler was preferable because his deal is an expiring one and they’d have minimal lingering commitments (just the rest of John Moore’s deal).

While Weber is likely on LTIR for the rest of his career (the league hasn’t signed off on that particular ruling yet which is why there hasn’t been an official announcement), there are lingering commitments.  He still counts against the 50-contract limit, his $7.857MM AAV is factored into calculations for the offseason cap (10% above the Upper Limit each year), a chunk of the salary has to be paid as the deal isn’t fully insured, and if it’s a cap-spending team that has his contract, they have an inability to bank cap space which means that any bonuses earned in a season become a carryover penalty for next year.  This is why Montreal wants to move him even though they haven’t even fully gotten clear of salary cap recapture liability yet with his deal (although the amount they’d potentially be on the hook for would be less than $1MM in total which pales in comparison to Nashville’s number).

So, who might be interested?  It sounds like there were talks with Arizona which makes a bit of sense as they have no intention of spending to the cap ceiling and would rather hang around the cap floor.  With Weber’s salary being lower than his AAV, there’s some potential for savings in total dollars being spent which, with as small of an arena as they’ll be playing out of for a little while, is notable.  (It’s the same reason that they took on Bryan Little’s contract from Winnipeg.)  But they’re about the only viable fit for that contract for now because of how much longer it runs.

MillvilleMeteor: What would a trade package look like for the Ducks to trade up and grab Shane Wright at the number one spot in the draft?

More than they should be willing to pay.  Considering Wright is projected to be an impact center, Trevor Zegras or Mason McTavish would have to be the focal point of the offer with Anaheim also needing to part with their first-rounder which is hovering around 10th overall at the moment.  Considering the almost always exorbitant asking price for a first-overall selection (which is why they basically never move), there’s probably another piece that would need to be involved as well in the range of a late first or early second-rounder or an equivalent prospect.

There’s a high sticker shock with a number one pick and frankly, it’s not one anyone should really be willing to pay this year.  Wright’s going to be a very good NHL center but he’s not a franchise player, not compared to the top picks in the class of 2023.  If you’re going to make the big move and cash in some of those younger assets, it needs to be for someone that you can really build around.  I’m not sure Wright is that caliber of player.

With the moves they’ve recently made, Anaheim is in a spot where they need to stay on the course that they’re on.  Make these extra picks they’ve acquired and continue to develop their young core.  In a year or two when their top youngsters are further along in their development, then they can look towards some win-now pieces.  But in terms of pick or prospect consolidation, I don’t think that’s the route the Ducks should be taking.

SpeakOfTheDevil: Who are the Devils’ 1A and 1B goalies next year? Assuming Bernier is done and Blackwood gets traded.

I’m not convinced Mackenzie Blackwood is ultimately dealt but I’ll play along with the premise and pick a new tandem.  This isn’t a great UFA year in terms of starters.  Darcy Kuemper is available but I don’t think he’d look at New Jersey as a viable option unless they vastly overpaid in salary.  Marc-Andre Fleury probably isn’t going there and Jack Campbell looks like a bit of a risk now.  That leaves Ville Husso who, quite frankly, is also a bit of a risk given his limited track record.  That should limit his market to an extent where if the Devils were willing to take the plunge on a medium-term contract in the $4MM range, that might be enough to get him.

But with Husso’s limited track record, they’d need a fairly proven platoon partner and that’s not coming from free agency.  Let’s turn to the trade front then.  Jeremy Swayman’s season with Boston could be enough to get them to move on from Linus Ullmark’s contract (three years, $5MM AAV left after this season) as long as they get a decent goalie in return.  Perhaps someone like Blackwood who could look better behind the back end of the Bruins?  That would save them some short-term money (which is important with Patrice Bergeron up this summer and David Pastrnak next offseason) while giving them a serviceable second option for Swayman while Ullmark would give New Jersey a more proven partner for Husso.

The combined AAV for the tandem would be on the higher side compared to other teams but the Devils have ample cap space at their disposal and can afford it.  An Ullmark-Husso tandem would certainly be an upgrade on what they have now with short enough commitments in terms of the length of the contracts to not block someone like Nico Daws if he shows he’s ready for full-time NHL duty down the road.

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Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

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It has certainly been an eventful past few weeks around the NHL with a very busy trade deadline plus a rare trade that was approved and later invalidated by the league.  On top of that, the push for the playoffs is heating up with battles for seeding in the Eastern Conference and several spots up for grabs in the very tight Western Conference.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag.  If you missed the last one, it was broken into two parts.  The first one focused on several trade deadline scenarios while the second looked at how St. Louis can afford to keep pending UFA Ville Husso, the future of Winnipeg’s core forward group, and much more.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend.

PHR Panel: 2022 Trade Deadline Predictions

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With just 48 hours remaining before the 2022 NHL trade deadline, things are heating up around the league. Several big moves have already been made, with Josh Manson, Brandon Hagel, Calle Jarnkrok, and Ben Chiarot all traded to contenders. There’s more coming before Monday’s deadline, with Claude Giroux and others still yet to be moved.

As we get closer, it’s time to unearth one of our old features: The PHR Panel. This time it’ll come with a bit of a twist as instead of answering questions, we’re going to have a bit of fun. Each of us will give one prediction for a deadline move, and we encouraged each other to go a bit outside the box if necessary. These deals are completely speculative and just done for fun–but make sure you tell us why we’re out of our minds in the comments!

Q: Suggest one trade that makes sense at this year’s deadline.

Brian La Rose: Pittsburgh trades Kasperi Kapanen, Marcus Pettersson to Vancouver for Conor Garland, Travis Hamonic

With all of the smoke surrounding Vancouver, it sure feels like the Canucks are going to do something. We all know team president Jim Rutherford is a big fan of Kapanen and he’s the one who gave Pettersson a five-year, $20.125MM contract that hasn’t aged very well. Clearly, he’s also a believer in him. On the other hand, he’s not the one that brought Garland in from Arizona and if they want to shake up their core, he could be the one to go instead of the likes of J.T. Miller or Brock Boeser. GM Patrik Allvin is also quite familiar with both players from his days in Pittsburgh and knows what he’d be getting with those two.

For the Canucks, they add two players that Rutherford is quite comfortable with and their hope is that Kapanen will be a better long-term fit than Garland who has quieted off after a hot start to the season. Pettersson fits as a potential partner for Tucker Poolman when he’s healthy on Vancouver’s third pairing.

As for the Penguins, Garland on the wing for one of Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin (likely the latter) would be an opportunity for him to step into the scoring role that Kapanen was supposed to provide while Hamonic would help to shore up their third pairing. His shorter-term contract than Pettersson (he’s only signed through next season) would be easier to move this summer than Pettersson’s if Pittsburgh needs to free up money to try to re-sign Malkin, Kris Letang, or Bryan Rust. Team president Brian Burke helped bring Hamonic to Calgary from the Islanders back in 2017 and that familiarity could help here as well.

From a cap perspective, it’s pretty close to neutral this season. Pittsburgh adds $725K to their books, an amount that can be offset by simply sending Radim Zohorna to the minors for the time being. Garland has one extra year left than Kapanen but is at a price tag that’s somewhat similar to what a long-term contract for Kapanen will cost. That will make the cost for Vancouver a little higher beyond this season but nothing overly drastic. In the end, it’s an old-fashioned ‘hockey trade’, one we could see a few of before Monday with so many teams right against the cap where player for player swaps will be their only realistic option.

Zach Leach: Los Angeles Kings acquire Mark Giordano

It has been very quiet out of Los Angeles with the trade deadline looming. Though they have been linked to available names here and there, they have not been painted as an active buyer. Is the young team merely content with their current squad? Or are they simply lurking in the background and waiting for the right time to strike? I believe that it’s the latter. The Kings have every reason to fight for a playoff spot this season. They have aging core players eager to make another run, promising young players who could desperately use some postseason experience, and find themselves in the weakest division in the NHL with a real chance to make a run to the Western Conference Final (and perhaps beyond). GM Rob Blake has shown a willingness to spend on prime talent of late with the Phillip Danault signing and Viktor Arvidsson trade and I would expect him to do so again with his team in a great spot in the Pacific.

Perhaps the hesitancy from the media to project major moves from the Kings comes from a lack of believability–which is somewhat well-founded. L.A. has been willing themselves to victory this season despite some concerning numbers. The team ranks second-worst among current playoff-seeded clubs in goal differential at +2, just a few unlucky bounces away from a net negative mark. Special teams have also been a nightmare; the Kings are ranked in the bottom five in both power play and penalty kill efficiency. L.A. is also below average (or worse) in scoring, hits, blocked shots, and takeaways. Pretty bleak, huh? Yet, they play a smothering defensive system and possession game that allows the fewest shots against the in the NHL and as a result, are one of the goals against leaders in the West.

So why add a defenseman? First of all, in the case of a team with numerous holes, there’s something to be said for identifying a strength and leaning into it. Plus, the injury-plagued Kings are currently out four starting defensemen, including Drew Doughty, Matt Roy, and Mikey Anderson, with Sean Walker done for the year and Alex Edler only just returning. The defense may be a strength in L.A., but they need some immediate help to keep it going.

More importantly, Mark Giordano is no ordinary defenseman. The Seattle Kraken captain is the most experienced top-four defender on the trade market with over 1,000 games played and continues to perform like a player in his prime. Even for a struggling expansion team, the 38-year-old has managed to record 23 points in 55 games and has improved his possession numbers from the past two years in Calgary. Giordano does everything that the Kings need more of; he leads the Kraken in Corsi and powerplay time on ice, is among the top three skaters in time on ice, powerplay points, shots, and blocked shots, and is among the top five skaters in assists and short-handed time on ice. On a more talented team with a strong defensive system, Giordano will only improve. Given the Kings’ poor blue line depth, it also helps that Giordano is used to eating minutes (23:35 average time on ice over the past 13 years) and has largely stayed healthy in his career. He would be well-equipped to take over a top pair spot in L.A. and eventually join with Doughty to create a formidable pairing of past Norris Trophy winners. The Kings thought that they were creating a dynamic veteran duo when signing Edler this off-season but it hasn’t worked out. They now have a second chance.

We know that the Kraken are going to deal their captain. Even though Giordano is the locker room leader for the league’s newest team, his expiring contract and high trade value will force GM Ron Francis’s hand. Giordano is currently sitting out in anticipation of a trade, protecting a prized asset–especially after the Josh Manson and Ben Chiarot trades set a high bar for top-four rentals. The Kings can offer Seattle return options that most other contenders cannot. First, they do not need to ask Seattle to retain much, if any, of Giordano’s $6.75MM price tag as their numerous injuries allow them to create additional LTIR space while eventually they will still have room for all of their currently sidelined players on the active roster outside of Walker. Additionally, while most contenders are trying to push draft picks and long-term project prospects on Seattle, the Kings are littered with elite, NHL-ready prospects. So much so in fact that the team could send one or two to Seattle for Giordano and still have plenty to send to Arizona for Jakob Chychrun in the off-season (another player that they have been linked to but whose injury status could delay a trade). The Kraken should want to improve next season rather than enter a rebuild already. Opting to send Giordano to L.A. in exchange for a player like Gabriel Vilardi, Rasmus Kupari, Jaret Anderson-Dolan, Alex Turcotte, Samuel Fagemo, Akil Thomas, or others (see what I mean by prospect depth?) is a long-term benefit but more helpful in the short-term than acquiring picks or prospects that are years away from contributing. Giordano’s familiarity with the Pacific Division, namely the division-leading Flames, is just the cherry on top of a deal that seems to be a great fit.

Josh Erickson: New York Rangers acquire Mark Giordano

It’s no secret that MVP-caliber goalie Igor Shesterkin has been the largest impetus of the Rangers’ success this season, catapulting them into a sure-fire top-three spot in the Metropolitan Division come season’s end. But the team has started to slip in recent weeks and their five-on-five play, particularly defensively, is now starting to expose cracks that have been forming all year. While no single acquisition will likely fix a team-wide issue like this, the need for a veteran left defenseman at this point is just too glaring to ignore.

As Zach details above, Giordano can be a difference-maker even at this point in his career. The Rangers can comfortably deal either their 2022 or 2023 first-round selection to Seattle, and the team also has a large number of prospects that the Kraken would be interested in taking on as well (is this a chance for Vitali Kravtsov to get a new start?).

They’ve gotten solid performances out of their top four defensemen all season, but the bottom pairing has become an issue. Patrik Nemeth has created more problems than he’s solved with his play this season, and while Giordano’s offensive game has dipped with age this year, he’s still been solid defensively. He’s a logical fit either next to Adam Fox, allowing Ryan Lindgren to draw more favorable matchups, or he can slot in on the third pairing and help mentor the young Braden Schneider as the Rangers go down the stretch run.

John Gilroy: Minnesota Wild acquire Andrew Copp

Still holding onto a playoff position in the Central Division but vulnerable, the Minnesota Wild could use a spark in their lineup, and with $11MM in cap space on deadline day, the Wild are poised to make a splash. In addition to cap space, the Wild also hold all but one of their draft picks over the next three years, missing only their 2022 seventh-round pick. One spark that seems to make plenty of sense for Minnesota is Winnipeg Jets’ forward Andrew Copp.

Copp, 27, is currently making $3.64MM and is a pending UFA, but could certainly slot into Minnesota’s long-term plans if they can re-sign him. The forward currently has 13 goals and 19 assists in 54 games for Winnipeg this season, which would put him tied for fifth on the Wild in points. However, Copp’s talent is not limited to his offense, as he currently profiles as a strong penalty killer for the Jets and is incredibly responsible, recording just eight penalty minutes in 54 games this season, and just 82 penalty minutes in 465 career games.

One concern might be the return for Copp. While the Jets are not in playoff contention, they do not appear headed for a rebuild, having a majority of their core signed or under team control through at least 2023-24. Trading Copp for draft picks, which the Wild have plenty of, would return his value, but may not make much sense for the Jets if they intend to win soon. One player that may make sense in a return for Copp would be prospect Jack McBain. The 22-year-old McBain has been the center of trade rumors recently for Minnesota, as he is eligible to hit free agency this summer. However, McBain, who is from the Toronto area, may also prefer to sign closer to home.

Ultimately, it appears that Copp is on his way out of Winnipeg, and if the two sides can come to terms on a suitable return, it would be in the best interests of the Wild to make a move for an energetic and well-rounded forward to spark a team that has struggled mightily as of late.

Gavin Lee: Detroit Red Wings trade Nick Leddy (50% retained) to St. Louis Blues for Klim Kostin, Marco Scandella

“Stevie Y is up to something.” That’s the text that Emily Kaplan of ESPN received this week, as the Red Wings prepare for the deadline in an interesting position. The team obviously isn’t good enough yet to contend for the Stanley Cup but has the building blocks to start pushing for a playoff position as soon as next season. With that in mind, targeting young players that have yet to make an impact makes sense, instead of just collecting draft picks like deadlines past.

Leddy has been linked to the Dallas Stars in recent days, and while they make sense, it seems more likely that they’re offering up a package of futures, instead of someone like Kostin who could impact the Red Wings lineup down the stretch and next season. The 30-year-old Leddy isn’t the player he once was but can still make an impact in a more limited role, something he could receive in St. Louis as they try to work their way back to the Stanley Cup.

You aren’t going to steal Kostin out of St. Louis for a few months of a depth defenseman though, so Detroit would need to provide some other value to the Blues. That’s where Scandella comes in, as the 32-year-old has taken a noticeable step back this season and is signed through 2023-24 at a $3.275MM cap hit. The thing is, for a team like the Red Wings, acquiring a cap hit like Scandella is almost meaningless given how much financial flexibility they’ve built, and he could essentially replace the veteran presence of Marc Staal next season. Scandella does hold a partial no-trade clause, but how likely is it that Detroit is one of the seven teams he has blocked?

The prize here is Kostin, a player that has struggled to find regular minutes in St. Louis. Since being selected 31st overall in 2017, the big forward has spent most of his time in the AHL, playing in most of three seasons before even making his NHL debut and now ending up back there this year. There’s a risk here for Detroit; Kostin isn’t signed past this season and could bolt for the KHL as a restricted free agent this summer, but there’s also a possibility that he establishes himself quickly as a middle-six option for a rebuilding club.

A second-round pick is nice, sure, but at some point, the Red Wings will have to start looking at players closer to the NHL. Kostin is exactly that, and the teams have a recent history of something just like this. In 2019, Detroit acquired Robby Fabbri from the Blues in exchange for Jacob de la Rose, and gave him an opportunity he wasn’t ever going to receive in St. Louis after major knee surgery. Kostin hasn’t been blocked because of injury, but perhaps the Red Wings could provide a similar chance for him to play more than the nine minutes he’s averaged over his 46-game career to this point.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Deadline Primer: Minnesota Wild

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As we enter the middle of March, the trade deadline is inching closer. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the Minnesota Wild. 

In the past two seasons, the Minnesota Wild have emerged from the mold of mediocrity thanks to the long-awaited arrival of Kirill Kaprizov. The team’s sights are now set on making it out of the First Round for the first time since 2015 and to the Conference Finals for the first time since 2003, although a recent skid evidenced by their 4-5-1 record in their past ten games has set them back on that path, seemingly. Third-year general manager Bill Guerin has already made one interesting swap this month, dealing Nico Sturm to Colorado for former top-ten pick Tyson Jost. With that cap-clearing move, many thought Guerin may be up to something bigger. They now have just two days left to capitalize on that open space, though, as March 21st’s deadline looms large.

Record

35-20-4, 3rd in the Central

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$10.526MM today, $11.053MM in full-season space, 0/3 retention slots used, 44/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2022: MIN 1st, MIN 2nd, MIN 3rd, MIN 4th, MIN 5th, SJS 5th, MIN 6th
2023: MIN 1st, MIN 2nd, MIN 3rd, MIN 4th, MIN 5th, MIN 6th, MIN 7th

Trade Chips

Eyebrows across all of the hockey world raised last summer when Guerin bought out the remaining four years of Zach Parise’s and Ryan Suter’s matching gigantic contracts, resulting in what could be crippling salary cap penalties in the next few seasons before the cost of the buyouts goes down. The penalty of those deals is set to increase by ~$8MM this offseason, so this deadline is likely the most flexibility to move the Wild will have for the next four years.

One position Minnesota will likely deal from to make a trade is defense. Skilled drafting in the past few seasons by Guerin and co. has resulted in an incredibly deep all-around pool, but at this point, the defense (especially left defense) is becoming overcrowded with what look like surefire NHLers. Seemingly, the most likely of these names to be dealt is one of Ryan O’Rourke and Daemon Hunt. A second-round and third-round selection by the team in 2020, respectively, O’Rourke and Hunt have continued their torrid upward development since Draft Day, with O’Rourke playing for Canada at the abruptly-cancelled 2021 World Junior Championships. With 21-year-old Calen Addison in the mix, as well as 2021 selections Carson Lambos and Jack Peart, the Wild can deal from this position comfortably.

While the team won’t be dealing top prospects like Marco Rossi and Jesper Wallstedt, a name at forward they could look at moving is Marat Khusnutdinov. A great budding two-way center, Khusnutdinov had 12 points in 32 KHL games this season and has two more seasons remaining on his contract there. He’d be a bit of a project, but still is at least a B-grade prospect and carries significant weight in a trade.

Other Names To Watch For: F Victor Rask ($4MM, pending UFA), top picks in 2022 and 2023

Team Needs

1) Another Center — It’s entirely feasible that the Wild won’t go big-game hunting on the wings due to the emergence of Matt Boldy and the success of Jordan Greenway and Marcus Foligno on the team’s third/checking line. But they could look to add another player who can slot in at center in the middle-six. While he hasn’t played center in quite a long time, the Wild are reported to have some amount of interest in Anaheim’s Rickard Rakell, who could shuffle around forward positions as need dictates. They could also look to acquire another winger for the fourth line (a Cal Clutterbuck reunion?), giving competition to Brandon Duhaime, Nick Bjugstad, and Connor Dewar.

2) Depth Defenseman — Calen Addison hasn’t managed to carve out a regular NHL role just quite yet, and Jordie Benn just hasn’t cut it as an NHL defenseman for this team. While their bottom pairing of Jon Merrill and Dmitry Kulikov is fine at worst, injuries happen and having one of those two as your seventh defenseman is a good place to be in. A name like Brett Kulak or Justin Braun makes a lot of sense, especially to help shore up their penalty kill, which has been in free-fall mode recently.

Trade Deadline Primer: Winnipeg Jets

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As we enter the middle of March, the trade deadline is inching closer. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the Winnipeg Jets.

A revamped back end for Winnipeg over the summer provided some cause for optimism heading into the season.  After a quick exit in the second round to Montreal, the additions of Nate Schmidt and Brendan Dillon were supposed to steady the blueline and help the Jets take that next step forward.  They’ve certainly helped on that front but unfortunately for them, Connor Hellebuyck has struggled and the end result is that they find themselves right in the middle heading into next week’s deadline – too close to automatically give up but too far away to realistically spend assets to try to make a run.

Record

28-23-10, 6th in the Central

Deadline Status

Toss-up

Deadline Cap Space

$669K today, $669K in full-season space (using LTIR), 0/3 retention slots used, 40/50 contracts used per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2022: WPG 1st, CBJ 3rd, WPG 5th, WPG 6th, WPG 7th
2023: WPG 1st, WPG 3rd, WPG 4th, WPG 5th, WPG 6th, WPG 7th

Trade Chips

The good news for Winnipeg is that if they do decide to sell, they have two veterans at a position that will be in high demand.  One of those is Andrew Copp, whose specific case we looked at in some detail over the weekend.  He’s currently out with a head injury and while it’s not believed to be too serious, it could put a hold on talks for the time being.  While his production has tapered off in recent weeks, he’s a two-way player that can play all three positions and do so in both offensive and defensive roles.  Pretty much every contender would have a use for that type of versatile player although, with a $3.64MM AAV, not all of them will be able to afford him.

The other center that would be available if they sell is Paul Stastny.  The 36-year-old has actually improved his offensive numbers from last season with 17 goals and 13 assists in 50 games, giving him his best point per game average since the 2018-19 season.  Stastny has spent a lot of this season on the wing with Winnipeg having Mark Scheifele and Pierre-Luc Dubois on their top two lines but he was a full-time middleman as recently as last season.  He’d fit in well on the third line for several contenders with an ability to move up in a pinch although his price tag of $3.75MM will take some creativity for some of them to fit the veteran onto their roster.

Nathan Beaulieu is currently on LTIR and will be out until next month but if there’s a team looking to add a bit of depth, his $1.25MM cap hit isn’t overly high and the 29-year-old has held his own on the third pairing in the past although his role has been reduced this year.  The return would be minimal – a conditional draft pick based on games played at most – but there’s at least a small possibility that he’d move.

On the other side of the coin is David Gustafsson.  The 21-year-old pending RFA actually cracked Winnipeg’s lineup as a 19-year-old but had a very limited role that year and in the two seasons since then, his NHL time has been extremely limited, including just two appearances this season that totaled less than five minutes of action.  He has played well with AHL Manitoba with 20 points in 33 games but as someone that needs waivers next season and doesn’t appear to have the confidence of the NHL coaching staff right now, he’s someone that GM Kevin Cheveldayoff might be comfortable parting with in a smaller move if he decided to try to add a small piece to try to help get the Jets into the second Wild Card spot.

Then there are the blank spots on their roster.  Only one team (Seattle) has fewer players signed to NHL contracts and there are a dozen teams that are three or less away from the limit of 50.  Winnipeg is in a position where they could add some extra AHL depth and perhaps a late draft pick to take a contract from one of those teams that has to free up a slot to make a move.  It wouldn’t be worth much but the empty slots effectively are a trade chip for the Jets.

Others To Watch For: D Tyrel Bauer (unsigned prospect), F C.J. Suess ($725K, UFA)

Team Needs

1) Draft Picks – If Winnipeg sells, they need to stock up on picks.  They haven’t had a full set of draft choices since 2017 and have had just four selections in each of the last two seasons.  At the moment, they only have two choices in the first 140 spots which is hardly ideal.

2) Depth Forward Upgrades – As a result of keeping their top forwards intact from last year and adding to their back end, Cheveldayoff had to go really cheap at the bottom of the depth chart.  The results haven’t been great for the most part.  They need low-cost improvements both now and in the long term, making this a team need that needs to be addressed regardless of which direction they ultimately wind up taking over the next few days.  While there are other needs to fill, it’s unlikely they’ll be addressed here with the Jets either selling or basically standing pat

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Deadline Primer: St. Louis Blues

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As we enter the middle of March, the trade deadline is inching closer. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the St. Louis Blues.

While many before the season thought the writing was on the wall for an aging Blues team, a variety of breakout years have kept St. Louis on track this year. Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich, and Ivan Barbashev are all having career-best years that are giving St. Louis some of the best forward depth in the league, and that’s not to mention a good rebound campaign from Vladimir Tarasenko. They’ve also gotten extraordinary goaltending from Ville Husso in recent weeks, keeping the team near the top of the Western Conference after a hot Jordan Binnington start cooled off. Now, they aim to create a roster that’s capable of giving the city of St. Louis its second Stanley Cup in four years.

Record

34-17-8 (.644), second in Central Division

Deadline Status

Buyers

Deadline Cap Space

$113,333 today, $133,333 in full-season space, 0/3 retention slots used, 44/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2022: STL 1st, STL 3rd, STL 4th, OTT 4th*,  STL 5th, STL 6th
2023: STL 1st, STL 2nd, STL 3rd, STL 4th, STL 5th, STL 6th, STL 7th

* – Blues receive Ottawa’s 2022 fourth-round selection if Logan Brown plays under 30 regular-season games for St. Louis in 2021-22. Brown has currently played 21 games.

Trade Chips

The St. Louis Blues have absolutely no salary cap flexibility at this stage to make a trade. While they are operating with a full 23-man roster, meaning they can send a player down and be okay (likely Alexei Toropchenko, who doesn’t require waivers), they’ll likely only have around $1MM to work with on Deadline day. With that in mind, any deal they make likely involves a roster player going the other way.

If they can offload him, the most obvious candidate here is defenseman Marco Scandella. Locked in for two more seasons after this with a cap hit of $3.275MM, his ice time has dwindled this year as injuries and age have limited his playing ability. It also doesn’t help that he plays the very position St. Louis is looking to upgrade the most — left defense. With him getting surpassed on the depth chart by Niko Mikkola, the fit for Scandella is simply no longer there.

In terms of the prospect pool that they have to deal from, Klim Kostin could be a piece desirable to other teams. He’s gotten into 40 NHL games this year but now finds himself back in AHL Springfield after just four goals and nine points, averaging nine minutes a game. The final pick of the first round in 2017 still carries significant trade value and would satisfy many teams’ want for an NHL-capable player without St. Louis having to deal from their active roster.

The Blues are also in an enviable position among contenders as they still have their first-round selection in each of the next two seasons. It’s a safe bet that the Blues will consider moving one of those picks, as their incredibly deep forward group and breakout year from Husso in net makes them a dark horse for a deep playoff run.

Team Needs

1) Top-Four Left Defenseman – Their top pairing of Torey Krug and Justin Faulk has been utterly dominant this season, but the team’s defense has been lacking behind that. Colton Parayko is still holding his own defensively, but the other half of the defense is plagued by inexperience and mediocrity. Finding a partner for Parayko has to be priority number one for St. Louis, and maybe Ben Chiarot or another defenseman fits that bill.

2) Depth Center – St. Louis could benefit from someone who can challenge Tyler Bozak and others for a spot in the lineup. Bozak’s age has caught up to him this year, and his -11 rating is the worst on the team. With just three goals on the season, a younger, cheap veteran option could be extremely beneficial.

Trade Candidate: Andrew Copp

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The trade deadline is now just over a week away as we continue our look at some of the players who have a good chance of being on the move between now and March 21st.

Andrew Copp has fairly quietly but steadily improved over the past several seasons and has worked his way up from being an energy player on the fourth line to a reliable checker to a quality two-way center that plays big minutes in all facets of the game.  As a result, if Winnipeg decides that they’re going to sell, Copp will be one of the most sought-after players around the league in the days to come.

Contract

Copp is on a one-year, $3.64MM contract that was agreed on prior to his arbitration hearing in August and thus contains no form of trade protection.  The deal is all salary and he will be an unrestricted free agent after the season.

2021-22

Copp has been somewhat of a Swiss army knife for Winnipeg this season.  Injuries to Blake Wheeler and Nikolaj Ehlers opened up spots on the wing that Copp filled at times.  He has spent most of the year playing down the middle but even with a fully healthy lineup (including Mark Scheifele and Pierre-Luc Dubois at center), Copp has logged heavy minutes and is third among all Winnipeg forwards in ice time behind only Kyle Connor and Scheifele.

Unsurprisingly, the 27-year-old has seen plenty of action on special teams.  He leads all Jets forwards in shorthanded ice time per game and plays almost the same amount of time on the power play, making him their only player to average at least 2:30 per contest in both situations.

The end result is that Copp is on pace to set career highs across the board (he’s already there in shots on goals).  On top of that, he’s winning over 53% of his draws and we know how much teams value situational faceoff performance in the playoffs.

However, it’s worth noting that his production has tapered off a little bit as of late with five points in his last 16 games while half of his full-season point total came in the first 15 games of the year.  That shouldn’t hurt his market too much but interested teams will be factoring that into their offers.

Season Stats

53 GP, 13 goals, 19 assists, 32 points, even rating, 8 PIMS, 147 shots, 20:05 TOI, 52.9 CF%, 53.8% faceoffs

Potential Suitors

Basically, any contending team with some cap space will have interest in Copp if he’s made available.  Winnipeg could retain to facilitate a deal although they’re close to being capped out so there may be a limitation to how much they can hold back or who they can take on to offset part of the contract.

In the East, the Bruins never really filled the hole created by David Krejci’s departure and have been looking to fill a top-six hole all season.  Copp fits the bill on both ends and they have the cap space to afford him outright.  So do the Rangers who could either slot him in on the wing in the top six or have him anchor a new-look third line that can take some pressure off the top lines.  The Maple Leafs have been linked to some wingers and Copp would be a good complementary piece on the wing on their second line although making the money work would be a challenge with Jake Muzzin set to return later this season.  The Capitals have been looking around at checking wingers and while Copp is rated a little higher, he’s someone they’d have interest in although again, the cap looms large on that front.  The Panthers may covet Copp’s faceoff prowess to help offset Sam Bennett’s struggles on the draw if they aren’t able to add a significant piece on the back end.

Out West, the Wild stand out as a strong fit.  They’re stuck shopping for expiring contracts with the buyout charges increasing next season for Zach Parise and Ryan Suter and could certainly use some improvements down the middle.  The Avalanche have good depth at center already but could use Copp on the wing or in a shutdown capacity.  It’d also be an opportunity to evaluate if he could be a serviceable replacement for Nazem Kadri if Kadri prices himself out of what Colorado can afford over the offseason.  The Flames would have some cap challenges to overcome and would need to use him on the wing but he certainly fits Calgary’s playing style.  If the Predators opt to try to make a bigger addition, Copp is someone that would fit in a role that’s similar to one he plays with Winnipeg, splitting time at center and the wing.

Likelihood Of A Trade

A lot will depend on how Winnipeg fares in this next week.  If they can close the gap on a Wild Card spot, they may hold onto Copp in the hopes of sneaking into the postseason.  However, if that doesn’t happen and a contract extension isn’t in the cards, there’s a very good chance that Copp will be on a different roster once the clock passes 2 PM CT on March 21st.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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