Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

PHR Mailbag: Senators, Dumba, Rangers, Underrated Players, Kraken, Bruins, Kings, Penguins Coaching Staff

May 29, 2022 at 7:53 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 19 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Mathew Dumba and Minnesota’s cap crunch, the Rangers’ center situation beyond this season, Seattle’s underwhelming year, and much more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back for it in last weekend’s mailbag.

MoneyBallJustWorks: What is the next step for the Sens. The team has stockpiled a good core of youth (especially on the blue line) but what do they have to do this offseason to take the next step?

The young nucleus for the Senators is pretty strong between Brady Tkachuk, Joshua Norris, Tim Stutzle, and Drake Batherson up front plus Thomas Chabot and Jake Sanderson on the back end. Now, they need to upgrade the supporting cast, so to speak.

Defensively, they need a top-four, all situations type of player. Players like Nick Holden, Nikita Zaitsev, and even trade deadline acquisition Travis Hamonic are serviceable veterans that can raise the floor of their defense corps. While that’s useful, now GM Pierre Dorion needs to raise the ceiling for this group to take a step forward. Chabot and Sanderson plus Artem Zub and Erik Brannstrom have some room to grow but with the right veterans, they’ll get there faster.

Up front, the top line is pretty much set with Tkachuk, Norris, and Batherson. But Stutzle’s linemates aren’t as consistent or anywhere near as good. Connor Brown is a good veteran but he’s not a big scorer while Alex Formenton’s speed is high-end but his scoring isn’t. Upgrading one (or if you want to aim big, both) of those spots would really deepen the offense.

On top of that, a goalie upgrade would help them take a step forward. Anton Forsberg isn’t a true starter, Matt Murray has underachieved, and Filip Gustavsson may not be ready for a full-time NHL roster spot (although waiver eligibility will probably keep him up).

That’s a huge wish list but adding any of those elements will help them get back to at least realistically battling for a playoff spot next season. That would be a good next step for Ottawa who isn’t really in a position to go from a bottom-feeder to a contender overnight unless Dorion manages to have the offseason of a lifetime and hit on all of these areas.

DarkSide830: With his name in past rumors and MIN needing to make a move, I wonder, can PHI make a move for Dumba? They need to get better on the back end and he could be available for 80 cents on the dollar with MIN’s crunch. I presume they need to move out a JVR then. Can they move enough of JVR’s cap without having to give someone a pick with it so they can reasonably fit Dumba in?

While I agree that Minnesota has a cap crunch, I disagree that they will make someone like Dumba available for 80 cents on the dollar. Yes, everyone knows they need to clear money but whoever goes – Dumba or Kevin Fiala (who’d fit one of those holes in Ottawa we just went over) – there will be enough demand that they’ll be able to get full value. Let’s say it’s Dumba. The UFA market for impact defensemen isn’t the deepest and Dumba’s cap hit is lower than what players like Kris Letang and John Klingberg are going to get. That bodes well for maximizing trade value, even with their hand being forced.

As for James van Riemsdyk, they’re not going to get much cap relief in a trade unless they send a pick with him. If I was an acquiring team, I’m pointing at the Patrick Marleau to Carolina trade as a benchmark; that move cost Toronto a first-rounder. Is it possible that they flip him for another underachieving veteran that makes a little less? Sure. That is definitely a plausible option. But will they save enough to fit Dumba’s $6MM in? Nope. Frankly, I’m not sure they’d save more on the cap next season than if they bought him out ($4.33MM cap charge) with a trade.

And if I’m Philadelphia GM Chuck Fletcher, notwithstanding the van Riemsdyk thing, do I really want to part with the first-round pick and/or a top young asset that it will probably take to get into the bidding to acquire Dumba? That’s not a smart strategy for a non-playoff team, even if it’s a core he thinks is better than it has shown. Once you do factor in the likely cost to offload van Riemsdyk’s contract for cap relief on top of the acquisition cost, the price for Dumba is one they shouldn’t be willing to pay.

Bill Blueshirt: The NYR need a 2C next year while being in a cap squeeze. Strome seems unaffordable. Do they a) sign Copp, b) go with Chytil and backfill at 3C, c) trade some of their many prospects for a C (and who would that be), or d) ???

I’m not convinced the bidding for Ryan Strome is going to be super high this summer. Yes, he has put up impressive numbers the last couple of seasons but he was doing that with Artemi Panarin on the wing a good chunk of the time. But his history before getting to New York was spotty at best and I’m confident there are general managers out there who will be hesitant to commit a big contract to him this summer.

I’m not saying there won’t be a good market for him but I wouldn’t be shocked if his AAV winds up being close to where Andrew Copp’s lands. If that’s the case, I don’t think Strome re-signing can easily be ruled out.

Do they need to free up some money? Probably. I wonder if they try to find a taker for Patrik Nemeth and take a cheaper player back to give them some wiggle room. But if they go with some cheap end-of-roster options and make a small cap-clearing move or two (Alexandar Georgiev being another one), I think they can cobble enough together to make an intermediate type of offer that could be enough to keep one of Copp or Strome in the fold. So, to answer your question, I’ll pick either a or d.

FearTheWilson: In your opinion who are the most underrated players in the league?

This is always a hard question to answer as underrated can be interpreted in a few different contexts. I could rhyme off some names that some of you may not be familiar with that are actually important players and that would qualify as underrated. But I suspect you’re looking for more prominent names so I’ll go with those.

Quick, think of an impact center on the Blues. No, not Ryan O’Reilly. Not Brayden Schenn either who, for many, would be the second one that comes to mind with his contract. Meanwhile, all Robert Thomas did this season was lead their centers in scoring while logging nearly 19 minutes a night. He was an impact offensive player in junior and while it has taken a few years for him to truly become an impact player in the NHL, he’s there, even if he doesn’t immediately come to mind when St. Louis centers are being discussed.

Roope Hintz is a player that many are familiar with. If you were thinking to yourself that he’s a good secondary scorer, it’d certainly be understandable. When digging into this question, that’s where I was leaning. But he averaged over a point per game last year and followed that up with 37 goals and 35 assists this season, finishing tied for 20th in the league in goals. That’s not a good secondary scorer, that’s a higher-end primary player who, by the way, spends a lot of time at center after coming up as a winger a few years ago. He definitely fits the bill of being underrated.

As for a defenseman, the first one that came to mind was Calgary’s Rasmus Andersson. He showed flashes of offensive upside over his first few NHL seasons but found another gear this season as he very quickly reached the 50-point mark. But he isn’t just a slick-skating, offensive defender. He takes a regular turn on the penalty kill and is trusted in all situations while leading the Flames in ice time. Despite all of that, if I ran a poll of what type of blueliner he is, I think a ‘good number four’ would probably win out. He’s much more than that; Andersson is quietly pushing for lower-end number one territory.

I’ll add a goalie to the list as well in Islanders netminder Ilya Sorokin. His delayed arrival in North America has resulted in limited exposure; he has played in just 74 career NHL games. On top of that, New York had a season to forget as they were out of contention early. But Sorokin very quietly was second in the league in save percentage this season (.925) and fourth in goals against average (2.40), impressive numbers for a non-playoff team. If he puts up similar numbers next season and the Isles rebound in the standings, Sorokin will be in the discussion for the Vezina Trophy. But when it comes to thinking of top NHL goaltenders, his name often doesn’t come up.

trak2k: If the Kraken do not “do anything” in free agency and or struggle at the beginning of next season do they fire the GM?

I don’t think there’s any chance of a GM change in Seattle within the next year. When the Kraken chose their roster in expansion, it became more than evident that they were planning a longer-scale build. In other words, they were going to have the development curve of a traditional expansion team. That results in losing seasons early on.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think Ron Francis did a particularly good job in assembling his roster in expansion and even their coaching choice was underwhelming. But he got the green light to build this way. To turn around and go back on that this early doesn’t seem like a likely outcome.

If I was Francis, I wouldn’t be overly active in free agency this summer. With so many teams in cap trouble, they’re ripe for the picking in terms of adding extra picks and prospects in exchange for taking on an unwanted contract or two, improving their future, and probably helping the current team in the process. Basically, do what they didn’t do a year ago.

aka.nda: I’d like to hear more on the Kraken.. seems they have a buffet of conundrums: 1. Goaltending, 2. Jaden Schwartz, 3. Victor Rask (why’d they play him so much?), 4. Massive amount of ‘22 picks, 5. Fleurys, 6. RFAs, 7. Captain, 8. Cap space… Speculate vigorously!

With so many questions, I’m going to have to go with pretty quick answers here.

1) Stay with Philipp Grubauer and Chris Driedger – both have shown enough in the past to think a rebound is likely. And even if Francis thinks otherwise, neither has good trade value at the moment.

2) Not much they can do with Schwartz. His injury history hurts his value and with four years left on his contract, he’s not exactly tradeable right now. Plus he has a no-move clause. He needs to play his way into some trade value.

3) Francis had Rask in Carolina and gave him the contract that will end in July. He had a lot of faith in the center so it’s understandable he’d have been willing to give him a long leash to see if there’s anything left. I wouldn’t be shocked if he was re-signed for around the league minimum next season.

4) This team doesn’t have much of a prospect base yet. They could use all 12 picks and it wouldn’t be surprising; if they did, they’d still have a pretty thin pool. Maybe they flip one or two of those for picks next year to balance things out but if they come out of the draft with the most additions to their system, that’s exactly what they need.

5) Haydn Fleury – Hard to see him qualified at $1.55MM with his limited role but it wouldn’t surprise me to Seattle try to get him at a little less on a one-year deal. He’s another player Francis had in Carolina and believes in.

Cale Fleury – Seattle will have their own AHL team next season in Coachella Valley and they need a lot of bodies to fill out their roster after sharing a team with Carolina this year. Fleury is a safe bet to clear waivers to he’s the type of player they’ll need to fill out the roster for the Firebirds. He should stay.

6) Most get tendered other than maybe the first Fleury. If they’re worried about Ryan Donato’s arbitration award if it went to a hearing, he could be a non-tender option as well but they probably will try to keep him even if he isn’t qualified. Some of their players on the fringes of the roster are options for the Firebirds next season.

7) If they name a captain, Yanni Gourde seems like the best option as a hard-working, respected, and impactful veteran. I wouldn’t be in a rush to name one though and if they want to go with only alternates next season, that would be perfectly fine.

8) I touched on this in the last question but rather than see them commit another Schwartz-like contract this summer, I’d like to see them take on shorter-term big deals and add other organizational assets. They should have done that last summer but didn’t. That said, I think they’ll get in the bidding for some of the big names to see if they can make a splash before pivoting towards some second-tier options.

SkidRowe: What do the Bruins do if Bergeron retires?

I think Boston signaled their intentions when they traded futures for Hampus Lindholm at the trade deadline and promptly signed him to an eight-year extension. That’s not a move made by a team that’s thinking about transitioning to a rebuild whenever Patrice Bergeron decides to call it a career.

For me, Plan A is signing Nazem Kadri. He’s not the same type of player Bergeron is – few are – but he showed this year that he is capable of scoring at a high-end level and that he can find another gear with top wingers. The Bruins have two top wingers in Brad Marchand (once he returns from surgery) and David Pastrnak and I think that trio could be a matchup nightmare for a lot of teams. If not him, they’re going to kick the tires on any top-six center that hits the open market and hope to land one of them. Charlie Coyle did well enough as the middleman on the second line that they only look to make one move.

Of course, it’s worth noting that Boston doesn’t have anywhere near enough cap space to add an impact piece this summer and will need to shed some salary. I’d look to the back end for that where they have nearly $32MM in commitments, per CapFriendly. That’s a bit much considering teams only dress six rearguards per game. But the ones they’re likely going to want to move (Derek Forbort or Mike Reilly would be my guess) aren’t going to be enough to add an impact center back. GM Don Sweeney has traded several higher draft picks in recent years so they don’t have the farm system or surplus draft choices to deal from to try to take a run at Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele if the Jets opt to shake up their core.

I think that takes trading for a Bergeron replacement off the table. As a result, with them clearly being in win-now mode, Sweeney needs to find a way to get a key center to sign off the open market while making a trade or two to free up the necessary cap space to make it happen. At this point, don’t even think about Plan B if Bergeron decides to retire – they just can’t miss on a free agent replacement.

rpoabr: Should the Kings swing for the fences this offseason or is it too early? They have a ton of young assets, some cap space, and an appealing situation to incoming FAs. Should they make some major trades or be patient another year to see what develops with the young group?

I don’t think Los Angeles is in their prime window yet (their core youngsters aren’t in their primes just yet) but if the opportunity presents itself to land an impact free agent, they have to take it. If they can add a core player to their roster without losing any future assets and use their cap space to their advantage, that can only help. I wouldn’t swing for the fences but augmenting their roster doesn’t hurt.

Knowing that the Kings will have their young core getting more expensive quickly, there’s a reasonable case to be made that going a year early might actually be beneficial as the deal will be easier to move (or expiring) before the potential cap crunch down the road.

That said, I draw the line at free agency. It’s one thing to add a ‘free’ asset but another to trade pieces away too early. I don’t think that would be the right move for them to make. That’s one of those things to do when it’s time for that final piece or two. They’re not there yet. Use this next year (or even two) to evaluate what they have so they know exactly what they need and who is expendable when the time comes to make that move. For me, it’s either add free agents or stand pat for Los Angeles this summer.

One More JAGR: Is Sullivan and his “system” on the hotseat? Perhaps Reirden?

A lot will depend on what winds up happening this summer. If the Penguins are able to keep most of their current core together, there will be win-now expectations and a slow start would probably have Mike Sullivan on the hotseat. But if they lose a couple of pieces and look more like a middle-of-the-pack team at best on paper, the expectations should be different and it would seemingly allow them to be more patient if they get off to a slower start next season.

That said, Sullivan wasn’t hired by Pittsburgh’s current management group which is always noteworthy while he has also been there seven years so there’s a risk of the message growing stale. Those have to be factors to consider as well. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Sullivan near the list of speculative coaches on the hotseat to start next season as a result but again, a lot will depend on what does (or doesn’t) happen with their roster in the coming months.

As for Todd Reirden, assistants are always tough to predict. Is it possible he’d go with Sullivan if they decided to clean house? Sure. Is it also possible that they’d view him as an ideal interim head coach if they want to make a change but have someone that has run an NHL bench before take over for the rest of the year? That certainly is a potential option as well. Until we see what Pittsburgh looks like next season and what the proper expectations should be though, it’s hard to forecast the short-term future of their coaching staff.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Anaheim Ducks

May 29, 2022 at 6:48 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 7 Comments

The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that weren’t playoff-bound plus those who were eliminated early in the postseason. It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Anaheim.

The Ducks got off to a good start this season which had them in the thick of the playoff race for most of the year before slowing down late in the year which helped lead to a significant sale at the trade deadline. GM Pat Verbeek now has a largely clean slate to work with as he enters his first summer at the helm but has some work to do.

Leverage Cap Space

At the moment, Anaheim has over $39MM in cap space with their most prominent restricted free agents being forwards Sonny Milano, Isac Lundestrom, and Sam Steel. They’re all capable young players but none of them are going to break the bank and significantly cut into that spending room. If Verbeek has the green light to go to the $82.5MM Upper Limit, he could be a big player in the summer spending around the league.

The big question is what is the best way to spend that money? They could try to go for the quick fix and look to add several impact veterans which would help replace the exodus of veterans at the trade deadline. At a time when many teams will have to show restraint in free agency, the Ducks could splurge. That said, with what’s coming down the pipeline a year from now (more on that shortly), is that the best route for them to take? And is the rebuild ready to be over or does more work need to be done? If the answer is the latter, spending big now makes less sense.

If they’re not ready to spend big just yet, then leveraging that cap space in trade talks might be the better way for Anaheim to go. They should be able to get some future assets in exchange for acquiring an above-market contract with the approach that Arizona has taken recently. Those contracts will often be shorter in length compared to what they’d be handing out to free agents in July which would preserve their flexibility when their young core is closer to being ready to try to contend. Retaining salary in a trade (or being a third-party facilitator) to add extra assets is another option as well. One way or the other, Verbeek will need to take advantage of the opportunity he has with the scarcity of cap space around the league.

Determine Gibson’s Future

Few players have been with the Ducks as long as John Gibson has. Along the way, the 28-year-old has seen his fair share of ups and downs, both in terms of Anaheim’s performance and his own. Back at training camp, however, he voiced his frustration with the team shifting towards a rebuild, indicating he was tired of losing. That has resulted in plenty of speculation about his future with the team.

This isn’t a situation where Gibson is on an expiring contract and a decision of either extend or trade needs to happen. With five years left on his deal, they’re not going to be in that situation anytime soon. But with Gibson’s discontentment about where Anaheim has been from a competitive standpoint, they will have to consider whether or not to move him, especially if Verbeek intends to extend the rebuild for another year or two. Keeping a player who is clearly going to be frustrated with that situation isn’t ideal.

That said, it’s not as if his trade market is particularly strong. His .904 SV% was below the NHL average this season while a 3.19 GAA isn’t overly impressive either. Part of that is playing behind a team that had a lot of inexperienced players but that’s only part of it; Gibson wasn’t particularly sharp as well. For perspective, his save percentage has hovered around that mark for the last three seasons. A netminder with those numbers that has another half of a decade left on his contract at a $6.4MM AAV isn’t going to carry a lot of trade value. In general, starting goalies don’t carry great value in the first place but certainly, ones that have underachieved as Gibson has aren’t going to have a lot of suitors.

Are they better selling low and taking a run at a replacement goalie in free agency to partner with Anthony Stolarz next season or do they hold onto one of their longest-tenured players even with him being unhappy about rebuilding? Neither scenario is great but it’s something that will need to be looked at this summer.

Extension Talks

Right now, cap space is plentiful but that is going to change next summer when three of their top young players are all in need of new contracts.

Troy Terry had a breakout year, leading the Ducks in scoring with 37 goals and 30 assists in 75 games after putting up just 48 points in his first 129 career contests. The low output led to a bridge contract which he has clearly outperformed already. Since he’s on his second contract already, the 24-year-old will be arbitration-eligible next summer where he’ll be two years away from UFA eligibility and anything close to a repeat season would push his asking price into the $7MM or more range on a long-term deal while giving him a strong arbitration case if got that far. If Verbeek is convinced that Terry’s production wasn’t a one-off but rather a sign of things to come, it would make sense for him to try to work out an extension now.

Meanwhile, Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale will be in the final year of their entry-level deals next season and are also extension-eligible in mid-July. Both players will have five years of team control left next summer and won’t be able to file for arbitration. Zegras didn’t look out of place as their top center last season and with Ryan Getzlaf gone, he will be carrying a bigger workload as well which could result in a jump from the 61 points he had this season. Drysdale, meanwhile, averaged nearly 20 minutes per game in his first NHL campaign while chipping in with 32 points, numbers that should only go up in 2022-23. Many teams often try to work out an early extension over running the risk of an extended negotiation the following summer and Verbeek will certainly want to do that here.

Getting these extensions worked out early would give the Ducks a much better overview of what their salary cap picture will look like in 2023 and beyond. Three long-term contracts will take a big chunk out of their spending room but if the two sides are too far apart in negotiations to the point where a shorter-term deal makes sense (more for Drysdale and Zegras than Terry), that would then open up some extra spending room for a couple of years. The sooner they know what they have to work with, the better.

Coaching Decisions

Verbeek opted to pick up the team option on Dallas Eakins’ deal, ensuring he’ll return for his fourth season behind Anaheim’s bench. But teams often don’t like their head coaches heading into ‘lame-duck’ situations so this might not be desirable for the team. In those instances, a one-year or two-year extension could be on the table, one that takes away any short-term uncertainty but also doesn’t carry a significant commitment if things go sideways and Verbeek decides he wants to make a change.

There is also some work to do at the AHL level as a full coaching staff is required for the second straight summer. Joel Bouchard along with assistants Daniel Jacob and Max Talbot were somewhat surprisingly let go after their first season following San Diego being eliminated in the play-in round for the playoffs. AHL coaching staffs don’t have to be in place at the start of free agency but if they want to try to go after some free agents that are ticketed for the Gulls, it would be useful for them to have their staff in place by then to avoid any uncertainty as those free agents will likely want to know who is coaching before they sign.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Buffalo Sabres

May 28, 2022 at 2:51 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 3 Comments

The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that weren’t playoff-bound plus those that were eliminated early in the postseason. It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Buffalo.

It wasn’t a great year in the standings but things are looking up for the Sabres. The team was much more competitive in Don Granato’s first season behind the bench and several of their young players made promising strides to show that brighter days could soon be on the horizon. With that in mind, Buffalo’s checklist looks a bit different than it has in recent years as they should now begin the process of trying to add talent and emerge from their rebuild.

Sign A Veteran Goalie

At the moment, Buffalo has six goaltenders under contract. Once the calendar flips to the new league year in July, that number drops to zero. GM Kevyn Adams will be busy on that front, to say the least, both in terms of NHL and AHL signings. Let’s look at the NHL situation here.

It’s widely expected that Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen will be promoted from the minors to fill one of the two spots with Buffalo as he continues his development and the team continues to evaluate whether or not he’ll be the goalie of the future for them. But the most games he has played in any of his professional seasons is 44. Between that and the fact he has just 13 NHL appearances under his belt, it’s safe to say that he’s not yet ready to assume the true starting role.

As a result, Adams will be looking for a veteran that is capable of playing more than a typical backup role. A short-term starter would make some sense or failing that, a platoon netminder to split time with Luukkonen would also work. Craig Anderson is among Buffalo’s pending unrestricted free agents and it seems like re-signing the 41-year-old would be their preference as he fit in quite well in his first season with Buffalo. It’s questionable if he can hold up under a higher workload than the 31 games he played in 2021-22 so if he is their choice, a veteran third-stringer to stash at AHL Rochester certainly would make some sense.

Decide Olofsson’s Future

Victor Olofsson has had an up-and-down tenure with Buffalo so far. After a surprise showing in his rookie season that saw him put up 20 goals and 22 assists in just 54 games, the two sides settled on a bridge contract, a reasonable course of action. The first year didn’t go well and for the majority of this season, things weren’t much better. At the end of February, he had just seven goals in 44 games and looked like he could be heading for non-tender territory.

But once March hit, the 26-year-old suddenly rediscovered his scoring touch, potting 13 goals along with 12 assists in the final 28 games. While the usual caveat about reading too much into production when a team is well out of playoff contention certainly applies, Olofsson may have shown enough to warrant another contract.

If that’s the case, what is the right deal? This is Olofsson’s final year of RFA eligibility so it’s not as if they can work out a short-term pact and then re-assess before he’s UFA-eligible. With him being unrestricted no matter what, a one-year contract isn’t ideal from Buffalo’s perspective while finding common ground on a long-term deal could be tricky given the year-to-year variability in his performance.

Olofsson is owed a $3.25MM qualifying offer and has arbitration eligibility this summer. With a little over six weeks until qualifiers are due, Adams will need to make a decision on this front sooner than later.

Add Defensive Help

At the moment, Buffalo has just three defensemen signed for next season that are locks to make the opening roster. They’re all aged 22 or younger in Rasmus Dahlin, Henri Jokiharju, and Owen Power. That’s a solid cluster of young impact blueliners that are going to be around for a little while but they need some veteran support.

This is something that the Sabres haven’t really tried to address in recent years which is understandable with the team clearly more interested in being at the bottom of the standings than the top over that stretch. Doing so allowed Dahlin and Jokiharju to log heavy minutes and play through some mistakes.

However, assuming their plan is to start to push forward with trying to get back to the playoffs after missing the postseason for an 11th straight year, they need some veterans capable of logging heavy minutes to work with these three. In an ideal world, they find three of them, one to partner with each youngster which would allow someone like Mattias Samuelsson to see more AHL action.

That said, adding three impact blueliners would be a tall task for any team, especially since there aren’t a lot of them available in free agency this summer. With more than ample cap space though, this seems like an area where Adams should have the green light to bid aggressively. Three would be perfect, two would be nice, but one is simply a necessity if they want to help their goalies and more importantly, help their young rearguards find another level in their development.

Thompson Extension Talks

The first season of Tage Thompson’s bridge contract didn’t go well as he put up just 14 points in 38 games in 2020-21. Heading into this season, expectations were quite low as a result. If he could lock down a full-time spot and play with some consistency, it likely would have been viewed as a success.

But what the 24-year-old did in 2021-22 was far beyond realistic expectations, likely beyond even the most optimistic projections for Thompson as he put up 38 goals and 30 assists. That goal total put him 19th in the entire league while he also made the transition to playing down the middle. While it took several years, Thompson certainly showed the offensive promise that made him a first-round pick back in 2016.

Thompson’s timing for his offensive outburst was pretty optimal as well as he’s eligible to sign a contract extension once free agency opens up in mid-July and he officially enters the final year of his deal. If Adams and the Sabres believe that Thompson’s performance is a sign of things to come, they will almost certainly try to work out an extension this summer as anything close to a repeat performance in 2022-23 will only drive the asking price higher. Meanwhile, after being a depth player for the first few years of his career, the prospect of a big money, long-term extension might appeal to Thompson. This is something that doesn’t have to happen but it wouldn’t be surprising to see both sides take a run at an extension in the coming months.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Detroit Red Wings

May 25, 2022 at 7:58 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 11 Comments

The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that weren’t playoff-bound plus some that were eliminated early in the playoffs. It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Detroit.

It has been a rough few seasons for the Red Wings. After their streak of 25 straight playoff appearances came to an end in 2017, they haven’t seen the playoffs since then. They have brought in several promising youngsters in recent years and the expectation is that they’ll soon get back to battling for a playoff spot at a minimum. With that in mind, their summer checklist is more geared towards win-now moves compared to recent years.

Hire A Head Coach

First things first. After parting ways with Jeff Blashill, who had been one of the longer-tenured coaches in the league, Detroit now needs a new bench boss for the first time since 2015 when Mike Babcock left for Toronto. Blashill’s tenure wasn’t overly successful in terms of his record (204-261-72) but with the team going through a reset, it wasn’t as much of a concern. But now with an expectation of more on-ice success, GM Steve Yzerman decided now is the right time for a change.

With that in mind, it will be interesting to see what direction they go. Are they looking for someone that is going to help them get back to the playoffs first and foremost or are they hoping for a longer-term fit? The two don’t have to be mutually exclusive but the first category opens up the ability to hire a veteran coach who can get quick results but who typically has a short shelf life, giving them some extra options to consider. On the other hand, if Yzerman is looking for a long-term fit, then the potential for a first-time hire stands out a bit more.

Either way, getting a coach in place well before the summer transactions get underway will be important as whoever takes the job will likely want to provide some input on what else the Red Wings do this summer.

Extension Talks

Two of Detroit’s top players will be eligible for contract extensions once free agency opens up in July in Dylan Larkin and Tyler Bertuzzi. Larkin, their captain, has been on a bargain contract for the past four seasons with a $6.1MM AAV, a price tag that’s below market value for a number one center. That will certainly change on his next contract as recent comparables will likely push his price tag over the $8MM mark per season. There’s no doubt that Yzerman will want to extend the Michigan native and keep him in the fold, especially since they don’t have an up-and-coming number one center behind him. In Tampa Bay, Yzerman’s talks with captain Steven Stamkos went right down to the wire. In an ideal world, that doesn’t happen so they’re likely to try to hammer something out this summer.

As for Bertuzzi, while he was in the headlines for not being able to play in Canada due to his vaccination status, that overshadowed a career year that saw him set career highs in goals (30) and assists (32) in 68 games while averaging nearly 20 minutes a night. That’s top-line production at a $4.75MM price tag which is also well below market value. Bertuzzi is a couple of years older than Larkin but at 27, he’s still young enough to be part of the core. This summer, Yzerman needs to find out what Bertuzzi’s asking price is to see if it fits within their future salary structure. If not, his name could be in trade speculation soon after.

Reshape The Back End

Detroit’s back end got a big lift this season with the arrival of Moritz Seider who is a very strong contender to win the Calder Trophy as the top rookie next month. However, their defense corps has been a weak spot for the past several seasons and will need to be addressed this offseason.

Long-time rearguard Danny DeKeyser is set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer and is unlikely to return unless it’s at a very steep discount. Marc Staal is also a pending UFA and while he’s not the higher-end shutdown player he was in his prime, he still filled a stable stay-at-home role for the Red Wings over the last couple of years. He could be back but would need to be replaced if he doesn’t return.

At the moment, there are only three other regular defensemen signed for next season beyond Seider – Filip Hronek, Gustav Lindstrom, and Jordan Oesterle. Hronek had a tough year in his own end but has some trade value if they decide to shake things up while Lindstrom and Oesterle are better as depth pieces. So, too, are recent signing Steven Kampfer and pending RFAs Olli Juolevi and Jake Walman. Beyond Hronek, none of those players should be in impact roles next season.

Detroit will have another top youngster coming to North America in 2022-23 in Simon Edvinsson and while he has shown plenty of promise, it’s hard to expect he’ll come in and suddenly solve all of their defensive issues. Adding an impact veteran (if not two) will be needed to help shore up a group that allowed the third-most goals in the league this season and help take some pressure off the goaltenders. Fortunately, they have over $35MM in cap space at their disposal so they can afford to shop at the higher end of the market this summer.

Find A New Second Goalie

Speaking of their goalies, Detroit needs to find a second goaltender to partner with Alex Nedeljkovic. Thomas Greiss had a particularly tough season and is unlikely to be retained while Calvin Pickard, their third-string option, is also a pending UFA and isn’t really in the mix for an NHL spot either. Magnus Hellberg signed late in the year but he’s more of a viable third-string option than a strong contender for the backup spot.

As usual, there are several Greiss-like goalies available, veterans that can be signed for a year or two to continue the platoon and maintain the status quo. Alternatively, a handful of netminders could be moved this summer that could be plausible platoon options as well.

That said, are the Red Wings better off looking for a longer-term option? Darcy Kuemper still has a few years as a starter left in him while Ville Husso and Jack Campbell have both shown flashes and are young enough to be around for a while. While Detroit has Sebastian Cossa, a prospect they have high hopes for, it typically takes a few years for a goaltender to be NHL-ready. Instead of continuing to churn through goalies for short-term fixes, perhaps a longer-term solution that serves as a bridge to Cossa is a better way for them to go this summer. Either way, they will need a new netminder in the next couple of months.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Salary figures courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Ottawa Senators

May 22, 2022 at 7:54 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 5 Comments

The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t playoff-bound plus some that were eliminated early in the playoffs. It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Ottawa.

Before last season, Senators GM Pierre Dorion declared the rebuild over. The team went on to post a weaker points percentage and finished seventh in the Atlantic Division after finishing sixth in the North the year before. Nevertheless, they’re still on the right path towards trying to get back into the playoff picture and their checklist follows that mindset with a mixture of retaining their current core and trying to add to it.

Shore Up Goaltending

One area that hasn’t been pretty the last couple of years is between the pipes. Anton Forsberg exceeded expectations as a waiver claim and did well enough to earn himself a three-year extension just before the trade deadline. After him, however, there are question marks; even Forsberg is somewhat of a question with just 104 games under his belt.

Matt Murray has struggled mightily in his two seasons with Ottawa, posting a 3.23 GAA and a SV% of just .899 over that stretch. He suffered a concussion back in early March, the third documented one of his career already after having two in quick succession with Pittsburgh. At this point, it’s hard to rely on him to provide much even though he has two years left on his contract at a $6.25MM AAV, one that’s effectively untradeable.

Their other in-house option is Filip Gustavsson. Once viewed as a key goalie prospect of Ottawa’s future, he has underwhelmed in his limited NHL action so far. He is waiver-eligible next season so he’s likely to be on the roster although relying on him would also be risky.

This is not a trio of goaltenders that will inspire a lot of confidence for a team with playoff aspirations. Finding a capable second goaltender to partner with Forsberg would give them a big lift. It’ll be easier said than done with Murray on the books and Gustavsson’s trade value not exactly at its peak but Dorion would be wise to try to bring in an upgrade between the pipes.

Flip The Switch

Regardless of whether or not they’re able to shore up the goaltending, Dorion needs to start focusing on some win-now moves. They’re not going to go from being near the basement to a contender right away but the time has come to start shopping for veterans that are going to help the process of turning things around.

Up front, that means looking for a top-six winger. Ottawa’s front line appears to be set with Brady Tkachuk and Drake Batherson flanking Joshua Norris. However, with Tim Stutzle anchoring the second line, his options on the wing aren’t anywhere near as strong and have been a collection of youngsters looking to establish themselves in the NHL or a veteran like Connor Brown who has been more of a two-way player than a consistent offensive threat. Bringing in a quality scoring winger would elevate Stutzle’s play and really give the Senators a second line that’s capable of producing with consistency.

There’s also work that needs to be done on the back end beyond non-tendering Victor Mete and parting with Michael Del Zotto. Travis Hamonic was brought in to try to stabilize a back end that bleeds shots allowed (more than 33 per game after allowing just over 32 per game the year before) but while he’s a stable veteran, that alone isn’t going to change their fortunes. A full season from Jake Sanderson probably doesn’t hurt but another impact defender would make a big difference.

Ottawa doesn’t yet have $60MM in commitments for next season and while that will change once they re-sign their restricted free agents, they will have ample room to try to add. If they opt to buy out Colin White (at a cap charge of $3.75MM total spread out over six seasons), they’ll have nearly $4MM extra to work with this summer as well.

Re-Sign Norris

Last summer, it was Tkachuk that was in line for a big contract coming off his entry-level deal. This year, it’s Norris. The 23-year-old had a breakout campaign, leading Ottawa in goals with 35 while finishing third in points with 55. Dorion’s preference has been to sign long-term contracts off expiring entry-level pacts as he did for Tkachuk, Batherson, and Thomas Chabot so he’s likely going to want to do the same here.

One of the challenges that both sides will here is Norris’ shorter track record. His first season was just three games and he has only 125 career NHL appearances under his belt, the equivalent of a year and a half. That isn’t a big sample size to go off of and he doesn’t have arbitration eligibility so this has the potential to be a particularly drawn-out negotiation. If Ottawa wants to skip the bridge contract and look for a long-term pact, Norris’ camp is likely to point to Nick Suzuki’s contract in Montreal (eight years, $7.875MM AAV) which would also stay within their salary structure as it would check in a little below Tkachuk and Chabot.

Extension Talks

Speaking of long-term contracts handed out to players coming off of their entry-level contracts, Ottawa could be in that situation next summer with Stutzle’s deal coming to an end. After a stronger sophomore year, Dorion will likely want to kick the tires on what an extension now might cost, knowing that a stronger platform season would result in a higher asking price the following year. It’s likely to fall in the range of Tkachuk, Chabot, and probably Norris in terms of the AAV.

Ottawa also has a pair of intriguing players that will be unrestricted next summer and thus eligible for extension talks at the start of the new league year in mid-July. Brown has been a solid performer since coming over from Toronto but is his role likelier to stay where it is now or do they envision him being more of a third-liner down the road? The answer to that will go a long way in determining whether or not discussions of a new deal make sense.

The other UFA of note in 2023 is defenseman Artem Zub. His numbers don’t jump off the page (22 points in 81 games) but he logged over 21 minutes a night and is a right-shot defender that will hit the open market in 2023 at the age of 27. In other words, there is going to be a lot of interest if he gets to that point. Dorion moved quickly to extend Zub when his entry-level contract ended and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him try to get an early extension done again. If so, his teammate Nikita Zaitsev’s contract ($4.5MM AAV) is a possible comparable.

For the last few seasons, the Senators have been near the bottom in spending on the cap. As their young core matures and other veterans are added or brought in to deepen the roster, that’s going to change fast. The more certainty they can get on the spending front, the better which is why being proactive on the contract discussion front should be a priority for Dorion.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Salary figures courtesy of CapFriendly.

PHR Mailbag: Devils, Trotz, Maple Leafs, Predators, Predictions, Penguins, Quenneville

May 22, 2022 at 6:49 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 7 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Barry Trotz’s market, Toronto’s early playoff exit, what’s next for Nashville, and much more. If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

M34: With a pretty strong young core and some team-friendly veteran contracts with plenty of room to spare, which UFA goalie does NJ pursue? Kuemper? Fleury?

Non-tendered: Another one regarding the Devils — It appears as if they have the assets and cap space to acquire an elite goaltender, which many believe is their biggest need. Is the notion of needing an elite goaltender done? The Oilers are primed to go deep and look at all the goalie problems they’ve had. Carolina is a revolving door of consonants between the pipes. How many elite goalies are there, really? Vasy, Shesterkin, Bob?

I’d prefer the Devils to shore up the netminder for 7+ years to come, but I’m not sure Kuemper, Gibson, or Husso are the ones. Who do the Devils look to to improve the goalie situation and what do they with all their assets?

I had a similar question in a mailbag last month so I won’t dig too deep into who they go after. But I think the Devils are going to have a hard time making themselves attractive to veterans like Darcy Kuemper and Marc-Andre Fleury. Kuemper is on a top team with a chance for a long playoff run. To turn around and go to a team that has consistently been out of the playoffs for a while would be surprising. As for Fleury, he’s near the end of his career. He wants to win or play where he’s comfortable. I don’t think New Jersey fits either situation.

The UFA I think they go after is Ville Husso. They have the cap space to go higher on the AAV than most teams will so why not go for some upside? There’s some risk but if they offset that with a capable 1B option (I suggested a trade for Boston’s Linus Ullmark in that previous mailbag assuming he’s willing to waive his no-move protection), the risk would be mitigated to an extent. That would give them a capable tandem with a big of upside and some certainty; Ullmark is signed for three years and Husso will probably get that long or more. Some stability between the pipes certainly wouldn’t hurt. I also don’t think they’d need to part with any significant asset to get Ullmark from the Bruins.

Now to circle back to the question that’s sort of sandwiched by what New Jersey should do. You make a good point in that there are few elite goalies in the league and of the three you suggested, I wouldn’t put Sergei Bobrovsky in that category. (If you want a darkhorse candidate for who’s in net for New Jersey next year, it’s him in a cap dump from Florida if they can get him to waive his no-move clause.) Andrei Vasilevskiy and Igor Shesterkin are definitely in there and Juuse Saros has a chance to get into that group. But in terms of elite, that’s about it.

Teams are beginning to embrace the platoon option more and more now which makes sense if they don’t have an elite or at least a higher-end starter. It’s more cost-efficient and is a better hedge against in-season injuries. New Jersey has tried to go that way the last couple of years and will likely stay on that path moving forward.

Johnny Z: NJ hinted at trading #2 OA. Do you think it could be offered for a player such as Fiala or Willie Nylander?

The speculation about New Jersey’s openness to move their first-round pick came before the Draft Lottery when their pick sat fifth and could drop as low as seventh. Things have changed since then with them winning the second draw, giving them the second pick. Now, they have a chance to get a core piece in the draft, either a winger like Juraj Slafkovsky or a defenseman like Simon Nemec or David Jiricek (assuming Montreal takes Shane Wright). That jump of a few spots really changes the outlook. If you can get a long-term core piece that should be NHL-ready fairly soon, they’re probably going to be better off keeping the pick.

For me, to even consider trading the pick, I’d want someone either signed or under team control for at least four years, someone that’s going to be part of their long-term core. William Nylander has two years left on his contract and with how contentious his last contract talks went, there’s little reason to think he’d sign an early extension so there would be a risk to acquiring him in such a move. It’s possible they could work out a long-term agreement with Kevin Fiala as part of a deal but if management thinks Slafkovsky can produce at a similar level, why not keep the pick and take him instead?

Never say never but there’s a reason teams very seldom trade top picks, let alone trading out of the draft entirely. They’ll certainly listen to what’s out there but I’d be surprised if that trend changes with the Devils this summer.

2012 orioles: What are the most realistic destinations for Trotz?

Player free agency doesn’t happen for a couple more months but coaching free agency just got a whole lot more interesting when Lou Lamoriello made Barry Trotz available. He’s probably going to wind up with a raise on the $4MM that he was getting with New York (and is still owed until he finds a new team) and plenty of job security in the form of a long-term deal.

In terms of who is a realistic fit for him, Vegas is the first team that comes to mind. They’ve set the bar high and Trotz is a coach that has plenty of pedigree and a good playoff track record. Both of those appeal to an organization like the Golden Knights. And if the Golden Knights are worried about how things went down with Robin Lehner down the stretch, what better move could they make by bringing in his coach from his best NHL season (2018-19)? He’s a splashy hire and would give them a boost while they have the willingness to spend big to get him. I’d handicap them as the top contender as a result.

Flyers GM Chuck Fletcher believes the core of his team is still good enough to contend and will go into this offseason with an eye on a quick turnaround. Trotz is the type of coach that could them back to the playoffs so they’ll be in the mix. Detroit GM Steve Yzerman has talked about wanting more defensive structure so they’ll kick the tires as well although Jim Montgomery still feels like the best fit to me. With Rick Bowness stepping down in Dallas, I’m sure they’ll also have interest although I’m not sure ownership will want to pay what it will cost to bring Trotz in.

The big wild card here is Winnipeg. Trotz is a Winnipeg native and the chance to coach his hometown team has to be appealing. They’re in a similar situation as Philadelphia in that they have a roster that underachieved but could plausibly get back in the hunt with the right coach. Speculatively on my part, if Trotz has interest in being a GM down the road, could he sign on as coach for a few years and then potentially move into the front office with Kevin Cheveldayoff moving up to team president (assuming he’s still around by then)? The Jets probably won’t be able to offer top dollar though.

Basically, every team with an opening is going to at least call. It wouldn’t surprise me if a team or two that doesn’t have an opening quietly interviews Trotz anyway. But right now, Vegas seems like the most realistic landing spot with Philadelphia and Winnipeg being in that next tier of options.

Y2KAK: When do the Maple Leafs win a first-round series? 2023? 2025? 2040?

Put me in the crew that thinks this core can still get there soon. They played a solid series against Tampa Bay and the final game was basically a coin flip. They didn’t get over the hump but this was far from choking away the series victories they could (and frankly, should) have had in the past. As a result, I wouldn’t drastically shake things up this summer if I were the Leafs.

If that’s the course that GM Kyle Dubas pursues, then it’s quite possible they get over that hump next year. Boston may take a step back depending on what happens with their captain, Florida’s roster won’t be as strong as it is now, and Tampa Bay is going to be squeezed by the cap as well.

Nothing is a guarantee and the questions are going to linger throughout the summer and into next season, as they should. But I’m pretty confident that this core is going to get through a round if it stays together. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if that happened next season.

ckw: With the questionable coaching from Hynes and moves by Poile, where do you think the Preds go from here? Two forty-goal scorers, a record season by Josi and a Vezina-caliber goalie in Saros, and an arguable Calder trophy finalist they still could barely squeak into the playoffs.

A commonly-used phrase in sports is when a team is ‘spinning its wheels’. That’s a sentiment that I think applies pretty well to Nashville.

First things first, I was quite impressed with their season as I didn’t think they’d come close to making the playoffs. Even though they went out quickly, the fact they even got there surprised me with the moves they made over the summer.

But here’s the thing. The Predators are good enough to hang around the edge of the playoff mix. But how much more upside does their core group have? It’s probably not much, certainly not enough to catapult them into contender status. But they’re also not in a spot where they can really embrace a rebuild as some of their bigger contracts (Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen) aren’t easy to move. If Filip Forsberg re-signs, he’ll be in that salary tier as well.

With the two-year extension given to Hynes, it’s a signal that they’re going to stay on this path for the time being. So where do they go from here? If Forsberg sticks around, they’re probably bringing a very similar team back to the one that finished this season unless they get the green light to spend closer to the cap ceiling which could allow them to add a player or two. That will have them either just in the playoffs or just out which is basically where they’ve been the last three years. They’re in that mushy middle and don’t appear to be changing course. From a sports perspective, they’re spinning their wheels.

The Duke: Oh mighty & all-knowing PHR Crystal Ball, 3 quickies for you here: 1. Where will Evander play next season? 2. Do Seth Jarvis and Alexander Holtz get Top-6 play – and which one has the brighter scoring future? And 3. Does UPL begin his starting assignment next season? Thanks in advance – but then, you already knew I’d thank you.

1) Edmonton certainly will want to re-sign Evander Kane although fitting him in doesn’t seem plausible. Given his situation, he’s likely going to be looking for the biggest financial commitment and that’s not going to be the Oilers. My first thought when I saw this question was Los Angeles, a team that has cap space at their disposal with Dustin Brown retiring, plus good veteran leaders like Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty to take some of the heat off. Lots will change in terms of who the free agent players could be by mid-July so for now, I’ll go with them.

2) If you’re asking about next season, I’d be leery of putting Jarvis in the top six. Carolina will have less depth next year but it’ll still be good enough for them to use him on the third line more regularly than the second. As for Holtz, I think he will see a lot of top-six minutes next season unless the Devils go and add a couple of wingers this summer in free agency or on the trade market. There’s no contractual advantage to holding him down now (they gained a year of team control by keeping him under ten NHL games this season) and with the way he played in Utica, he’s close to ready. From a long-term perspective, Holtz has top-line upside while I think Jarvis tops out as a second-liner so Holtz should have the brighter future.

3) I expect to see Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in the NHL next season on a regular basis. But I’m not as certain that he’s the starter. It has been suggested they’d like to retain Craig Anderson to ease some of the pressure of Luukkonen and whether it’s him or another veteran, they’re going to handle a fairly big workload, especially since the youngster hasn’t really had heavy action in the minors due to injuries. I think he falls somewhere within the 35-45 games played range which is more of a platoon goalie than a clear-cut starter in 2022-23.

W H Twittle: Does Hextall’s tenure in Philadelphia tell us anything about how he intends to manage the UFA situation in Pittsburgh?

Hextall’s biggest UFA signing in terms of newcomers was James van Riemsdyk but in terms of AAV, his next biggest was Evgeni Medvedev at $3MM. There was plenty of lower-end activity though. As for re-signings, he handed Jakub Voracek eight years and $66MM so he isn’t against spending big to keep someone either. He just handed out a six-year deal to a 30-year-old as well with yesterday’s Bryan Rust contract.

What can we glean from that and apply to Pittsburgh’s situation? Not much, if anything. At this point, the goal will be to keep as much talent in the fold as possible so they’ll try to keep Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin, and trade deadline acquisition Rickard Rakell. Of course, there will be limits to what they can offer but that will be more dictated by their cap situation than Hextall’s own beliefs and limitations when it comes to free agency.

I’m really intrigued to see what happens with the Penguins and how many of their free agents they’ll be able to keep, especially since it doesn’t seem like they can afford to keep Malkin and Letang now without both signing team-friendly deals. But I don’t think we can really apply anything that happened with Hextall when he ran the Flyers to predict what will happen with Pittsburgh this summer.

Red Wings: Any chance Quenneville is back with the Panthers next season?

I’d put those odds between slim and nil and slim just left the building. This isn’t a case like Alex Cora with the Boston Red Sox where he served his penalty from Houston’s sign-stealing scandal, got rehired, and things largely went on as if nothing of consequence happened. The gravity of what happened back with Chicago is much steeper than that and certainly not enough time has passed for him to realistically be considered as a candidate to be hired anywhere, let alone with Florida. The fact that he has yet to apply for reinstatement from the league at the time when the coaching market is in full flight is a pretty telling sign that he doesn’t expect to be considered for any vacancies this summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Chicago Blackhawks

May 21, 2022 at 10:16 am CDT | by Brian La Rose 12 Comments

There were high hopes for the Blackhawks to start this season after a summer that saw them add a new top defender in Seth Jones, a new starting goalie in Marc-Andre Fleury, as well as some extra depth up front. The hope was that these improvements would help get them back into the playoff picture after missing the postseason the year before. It didn’t happen. Instead, mired with off-ice controversy and on-ice struggles, things snowballed in the opposite direction and instead of building for the playoffs, GM Kyle Davidson has committed to going for a rebuild instead. As a result, he has a busy summer ahead of him.

Coaching Decision

After Jeremy Colliton was let go after just a dozen games, Derek King was elevated from coaching with AHL Rockford to fill in on an interim basis for the rest of the season. His record wasn’t stellar by any stretch (27-33-10) but the team was much more competitive under King despite having nothing to play for but pride for most of the season.

Davidson decided that he wants to undergo a full coaching search and one of the questions he’ll have to answer is the type of coach he’s looking for. Is he looking for a long-term fixture to grow with the team or is it someone to take them through this transitional period? If it’s the latter, someone like King – who will interview for the full-time job – becomes a legitimate candidate with how Chicago performed down the stretch. A veteran coach doesn’t seem like a good fit for a rebuilding squad but Davidson has committed to a thorough search so there will undoubtedly be some veteran coaches considered over the coming weeks on top of some first-time options.

On top of hiring a head coach, Davidson and whoever he picks as his bench boss will need to fill a couple of vacancies on the bench after the team dismissed associate coach Marc Crawford and assistant coach Rob Cookson this summer.

Build A Goalie Tandem

In terms of Chicago’s on-ice personnel, there is a lot of work to be done this summer between the pipes. Fleury was moved to Minnesota at the trade deadline while holdovers Kevin Lankinen and Collin Delia are both pending unrestricted free agents. As it stands, the only goalie with professional experience that’s signed for next season is Arvid Soderblom. Suffice it to say, they have some work to do.

After an impressive first NHL season, Lankinen struggled considerably this year with a save percentage of just .891. A year ago, it looked like he could be a sought-after netminder in free agency but now, his market will have cooled considerably. Still, a return to Chicago could be an option in a backup role. Delia is someone that has been around the organization for a while (five years) but never has really emerged beyond being a good AHL netminder that can play a handful of NHL contests when needed. With the Blackhawks wanting to give Soderblom and Jaxson Stauber lots of action with AHL Rockford, Delia seems likely to move on.

Davidson could try to go after a younger free agent goalie in Jack Campbell or Ville Husso with the hope that they’ll still be on the team when they’re ready to try to contend again but that seems like an unlikely scenario. Instead, veterans on short-term contracts that give them some flexibility seems like the smarter way to go for them. They’ll need a couple of them over the next few months.

Rebuild The Rest

There are few core players on Chicago that should be viewed as untouchable. With them appearing to be eyeing a multi-year process, anyone that isn’t signed or under team control through that time could very well be expendable.

Blackhawks GM Kyle Davidson has a very busy offseason ahead of him.The biggest decisions that will need to be made in the short term involve winger Patrick Kane and center Jonathan Toews. Both players have spent their entire careers (14 years for Toews, 15 for Kane) in Chicago and have been on identical contracts since 2010. They’re set to enter the final year of their deals that carry a $10.5MM cap hit. Are they a part of the future plans? Davidson allowed for the possibility that they could stick around but will the veterans be willing to go through several more years of losing? If not, then they will have to give serious consideration to trading their long-time pillars. Are those moves easier to make now when moving salary is a bit easier or closer to the trade deadline when most of the cap hit has been covered already? That, along with the possibility of extensions, will likely have to be jointly explored this summer.

Other veterans will likely be on the move as well to add future assets and try to free up some cap flexibility. Blueliner Jake McCabe and Connor Murphy along with center Tyler Johnson are all potential options either this summer or at some point during the season.

RFA Decisions

Two younger veterans that could fit in the above category as well are Dominik Kubalik and Dylan Strome. Both are restricted free agents this summer with qualifying offers ($4MM for Kubalik, $3.6MM for Strome) that are a bit high relative to their performance in recent years. Kubalik had 30 goals in his rookie season but just 32 in the last two combined. Strome, meanwhile, has been hit or miss since joining Chicago in 2018, at times looking like a capable top-six player and others where he struggled to the point of being a healthy scratch.

Not that long ago, both players were viewed as potential long-term fits for the Blackhawks but that isn’t the case now due to their inconsistency and somewhat recent struggles. Kubalik was available at the trade deadline with minimal interest while Strome has been available off and on going back more than a year although his strong finish (36 points in his last 40 games) could help his chances of sticking around with a one-year, ‘prove it’ type of contract.

Can they keep both? With their cap situation, can they afford to keep both? They can opt for club-elected arbitration which carries a minimum salary of 85% of the qualifying offer but there’s no guarantee the arbitrator will agree with that valuation and there are no walkaway rights with club-elected arbitration. Chicago can try to negotiate a lower-priced deal but there’s no requirement for Kubalik and Strome to agree to something like that. Accordingly, don’t be surprised if both players are in the rumor mill in the coming weeks to see if there’s a trade return that could be palatable if Davidson doesn’t want to pay the cost to keep them.

DeBrincat Extension Talks

One player that Davidson will undoubtedly be willing to pay the cost to keep is winger Alex DeBrincat. He signed a three-year bridge deal back in 2019 and has outperformed it, scoring 73 goals in just 134 games since then, including 41 this season. With his contract coming before the CBA extension, he’s subject to the old qualifying offer rules which means his 2022-23 salary of $9MM represents his qualifying offer next summer.

The 24-year-old will be eligible for an extension once the new league year starts in mid-July. DeBrincat looks like a centerpiece of Chicago’s rebuilding process so locking him up as soon as possible is something that needs to be explored. It wouldn’t be surprising to see discussions on a new agreement begin sooner than later as a result. A deal doesn’t have to be done now but if something isn’t agreed on, he’ll enter next summer a year away from UFA eligibility which always carries some risk. Expect Davidson to try to avoid that if he can.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Salary figures courtesy of CapFriendly.

Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

May 20, 2022 at 2:20 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 38 Comments

The first round is complete and many teams are facing significant questions about their future. How do you bounce back from another first-round exit? Which managers and coaches are now on the hot seat? What will happen to those deadline rentals that were unable to provide any postseason push? The offseason is right around the corner and things are starting to get exciting.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag. Last time, it was split into two parts. The first included a discussion about Ryan Ellis’ future in Philadelphia, Evander Kane’s ongoing grievance with the Sharks, and touched on a potential Kevin Fiala offer sheet. The second looked at Filip Forsberg’s pending free agency, the mess that the Golden Knights find themselves in, and some buyout candidates for this summer.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend and we will try to answer as many questions as possible.

Offseason Checklist: New Jersey Devils

May 19, 2022 at 7:53 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 4 Comments

While the Devils made a big splash last summer when they handed Dougie Hamilton the biggest UFA contract, they weren’t picked by many to contend for a playoff spot this season. That said, not many expected them to struggle as much as they did either. They’re a team that’s viewed as being on the rise with a good young nucleus so the focus now needs to be on strengthening their squad to get back into postseason contention which is a big part of their summer checklist.

Defensive Decisions

GM Tom Fitzgerald has a few decisions to make this summer when it comes to his back end. For starters, Damon Severson and Ryan Graves will be entering the final year of their respective contracts next season and both will be UFA-eligible next summer. Severson had a career year this season and was their top defender in terms of production and playing time. That has him in line for a sizable raise on his current $4.167MM AAV. But with Hamilton (another right-shot rearguard) locked up at $9MM per year through 2027-28, can they afford another high-priced blueliner on that side? If a deal can’t be reached, then he becomes a trade candidate.

Graves’ situation is a little trickier. He quietly had a career year offensively and didn’t look out of place in his first season with New Jersey. But his track record is a lot smaller; he has just three full NHL seasons under his belt and two of those were shortened due to COVID. He’s trending towards a raise on his $3.33MM AAV but has he shown enough to be part of their long-term plans? If so, Fitzgerald will likely want to try to work on an extension once he’s eligible to sign one in July.

The other decision they’ll need to make pertains to P.K. Subban. While it’s likely that he won’t be retained, how are they going to redistribute his $9MM cap hit across the roster? They have the ability to try to swing big and add another impact blueliner or try to use some of that to cover extensions for one or both of Severson and Graves. Alternatively, if Fitzgerald opted to reallocate the bulk of that money to his forward group, that could bolster their forward unit. With the team being near the middle of the pack in that regard this season, a big boost up front could propel them closer to the top ten in that department.

Re-Sign Bratt

If someone was to ask who New Jersey’s top scorer was this season, it’d be understandable the first name that came to mind was either Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier, their core building blocks down the middle. But that wouldn’t be the right answer. No, the leading scorer was winger Jesper Bratt, a player who more than doubled his previous career-high in points while putting up 26 goals and 47 assists in 76 games. He picked a perfect time to do so as he’s set to be a restricted free agent this summer with arbitration eligibility. As a result, a new deal for the 23-year-old will be high on Fitzgerald’s to-do list.

It won’t be an easy task, however, when it comes to finding the right number for a contract. Is his 73-point season a sign of things to come or an outlier considering his other four NHL seasons had point totals between 30 and 35? Bratt’s camp will certainly argue the former while the Devils will want to hedge against the latter. Fitzgerald has stated his intention to get Bratt signed to a long-term contract and with only two RFA years remaining, it’s going to take a big number to get the winger to lock down the prime years of his career. He’s coming off a deal that carried a $2.75MM AAV and a long-term deal that buys out some UFA seasons will almost certainly cost double that or more.

Add A Goalie

Two years ago, the Devils thought they had the right veteran partner for Mackenzie Blackwood when they signed Corey Crawford to a two-year deal. However, he had a last-minute change of heart, retiring before training camp. New Jersey went down a similar path last summer, inking Jonathan Bernier to a two-year deal. But a hip injury limited him to just ten games this season and he may not be ready to start 2022-23. In the meantime, Blackwood’s stock has fallen considerably from a goalie on the rise to one that couldn’t crack the top 50 in the NHL in SV% among qualifying goaltenders this season.

Generally speaking, carrying three goaltenders isn’t a desirable situation. But for the Devils, it’s basically a necessity to hedge against Bernier’s injury and Blackwood’s struggles. Nico Daws was okay in his first taste of NHL duty but he needs to be in the minors for another season or two so they’ll need to look outside the organization for that third netminder.

The UFA market would be the easiest way to go with players like Jack Campbell and Ville Husso representing upside buys, albeit risky ones with their limited track records. Veterans like Marc-Andre Fleury and Braden Holtby are shorter-term options if their intention is to just shore the position up for now and look for the big fix later. (Darcy Kuemper is also available but it’s hard to see the Devils being the winner for his services.) With where New Jersey is in terms of still emerging from its rebuild though, will they be appealing to those free agents if they’re looking to win sooner than later?

The trade market is another option although that market won’t materialize for a while. Alexandar Georgiev should be available but is he much of an upgrade (and would the Rangers move him to their rival)? Washington may move one of their goalies if they can land a more proven veteran but again, they come with question marks. Others will come available over the coming months but will they be considerable upgrades? That’s far from a guarantee.

There aren’t any truly obvious choices here for New Jersey other than the fact they’ll need to add a goalie at some point over the next couple of months.

Add Win-Now Talent

While New Jersey opted to keep Lindy Ruff behind the bench (instead opting to make a couple of changes to their assistants), it’s fair to surmise he’ll be on a short leash to start next season. At some point, they need to go from rebuilding to pushing for a playoff spot; they’ve only made the playoffs once in the last decade. That switch should be flipped this summer.

They have a little over $25MM in cap space this summer with Bratt’s deal being the only one that will be a high-priced contract. While they also need to re-sign Miles Wood and Pavel Zacha, they’ll have well above $10MM to spend on the open market or in trades which puts them in a much better position than most of the league. While it’s understandable if they want to leave themselves a bit of a cap cushion heading into the season, they should be within a few million of the Upper Limit so there is definitely room to work with.

They have the ability to outbid teams in free agency as they did for Hamilton last summer. They can take on a bad contract for cheap in a trade that would double as an upgrade on their roster. The options are plentiful but by the time October rolls around, Fitzgerald needs to find a way to add multiple impact veteran players if the Devils are going to have a realistic shot of trying to get into the Wild Card hunt next season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Salary figures courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Philadelphia Flyers

May 15, 2022 at 6:57 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 8 Comments

Things went off the rails early and often for the Flyers this season. The team had high internal expectations and didn’t come close to meeting them. Injuries hurt them considerably throughout the year, a coaching change did nothing to turn the tide, and Carter Hart put forth a second straight tough year. Despite all that, they’re showing no signs of a rebuild so their checklist this summer may seem counterintuitive to the direction that many believe they should take.

Thread The Needle

GM Chuck Fletcher has talked about what he terms an aggressive retool. On the surface, it appears that the intention there would be to shake up the core again, moving veterans for other veterans in the hopes that the new mix will result in better success. They tried that last summer with the additions of Cam Atkinson and Ryan Ellis but while Atkinson had a decent season with 23 goals and 27 assists, Ellis was limited to just four games due to injury. In the end, it didn’t really change their fortunes.

Fletcher now needs to find a way to make more of those swaps to make the team more competitive now while also not throwing away parts of his future as he did in the Rasmus Ristolainen trade. While there will be teams open to those types of swaps since many will have salary cap challenges and will be limited to those types of trades involving impact players, finding the right combination of moves to spark the team isn’t going to be easy as the success rate around the league on those is nowhere near 100%.

Only one team scored fewer goals than the Flyers this season (Arizona) and only five allowed more goals so clearly, notable changes need to be made both up front and on the back end. Full seasons from Sean Couturier and Ellis will help but that alone won’t be enough. To borrow terms from other sports, Fletcher will need to thread the needle on a pretty significant sequence of moves and knock a few acquisitions out of the park. They have their work cut out for them as a result.

Free Up Cap Space

Just when you might be thinking that the above seems pretty daunting in itself, let’s bring the salary cap into play now. Philadelphia has less than $6MM in cap space this summer with Owen Tippett, Morgan Frost, and Zack MacEwen needing new deals up front and a replacement for Keith Yandle on the back end. Even if that number is a little inflated with some of their end-of-season recalls, there isn’t much in the way of flexibility in terms of trying to make a splash in free agency. Unless, of course, they can clear some money up first.

The obvious candidate on that front is James van Riemsdyk. The 33-year-old has provided the Flyers with some decent secondary scoring in his second stint with the franchise, scoring at least 17 goals in each of his four years since returning (and that low mark came in the COVID-shortened 2020-21 campaign). However, his effectiveness has waned as he ages and $7MM is an expensive price tag for someone who is best utilized as a middle-six winger. It’s unlikely he’s going to turn things around next season and get back to the 30-goal mark so he’s someone that stands out as a trade candidate. The question will be how much of an offset will be needed (either by retention or by taking a player back) or how much of an incentive they’ll need to provide to get a team to take the contract without sending any money back. What happens with van Riemsdyk will go a long way towards determining what they can or can’t do this summer.

While they didn’t really get a chance to evaluate their full back end due to Ellis missing 78 games, it also seems likely that they will move a defender as part of their aggressive retool. It won’t be Ellis as his value is down after missing almost the entire year and they just committed five years at $5.1MM per to Ristolainen; clearly, he’s not moving either. That leaves Ivan Provorov ($6.75MM through 2024-25) and Travis Sanheim ($4.675MM in 2022-23, then becomes a UFA). Provorov is coming off an underwhelming year so while moving him would save money, his trade value certainly isn’t at its best. Sanheim is easier to move but yields less in cap savings. But if they want to shake up the back end again, one of those two may need to be on the move as a result.

Hire A New Head Coach

After the decision to fire Alain Vigneault early in the season didn’t yield the results Fletcher was hoping for, the Flyers decided not to continue with Mike Yeo as their head coach for next season. That puts finding a new bench boss very high on the priority list over the coming weeks.

With Philadelphia committed to trying to retool instead of rebuild, that could push them in the direction of a veteran coach over a first-timer in that role. While long-time Flyer Rick Tocchet is viewed as a popular option, someone like Barry Trotz – who led quick turnarounds for the Capitals and Islanders – could stand out for that reason as well. Paul Maurice is also a possible fit if he wanted to get back behind a bench so quickly after stepping away from Winnipeg.

Among the first-time head coaching options, Lane Lambert has long been speculated as a candidate but he could be promoted to the top spot for the Islanders after Trotz’s departure. Nate Leaman is always an option to make the jump from the college ranks while Rikard Gronborg and Roger Ronnberg are international coaches that always come up at this time of year. But again, a first-time NHL bench boss would be a bit surprising given their win-now intentions. Regardless, it will be a crucial hire for Fletcher as with the way the last couple of seasons have gone, he may not get another one.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Salary figures courtesy of CapFriendly.

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