Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

PHR Chatter: Everyone Loves An Underdog

May 6, 2022 at 9:30 am CDT | by Gavin Lee 11 Comments

As we continue the 2021-22 Stanley Cup Playoffs, PHR is excited to announce a new feature aimed at encouraging discourse between reader and writer. On Friday mornings (and perhaps even more often than that), we’ll post a topic of discussion that we think will draw out varied and interesting perspectives from both our commenters and the other staff writers.

For too long there has only been a couple of outlets for our readers to interact with the PHR staff. Live chats and mailbags offer a chance at some discussion, but also run the risk of being too crowded or even outdated by the time the answer arrives. With this new feature, we’re hoping to get weekly chatter going on a topic that normally would have to be brought into the spotlight by a reader before even being discussed.

Last time, the discussion centered on “tanking” and whether it is an effective means to eventual success in the NHL. This week, let’s take a look at the eight playoff series and see if we can’t find an upset.

Only the Carolina Hurricanes and Colorado Avalanche are up 2-0 so far, meaning any of the other series could easily swing to the underdog. But which one looks most likely to produce an unexpected result? This will be a free-flowing discussion that doesn’t have a lot of guidelines, so make sure you chime in and check regularly to continue the conversation.

PHR Mailbag: Ellis, Playoffs, Fiala, Jets, Devils, Draft, Kane

May 1, 2022 at 7:55 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 3 Comments

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include Ryan Ellis’ future with the Flyers, playoff discussion, Evander Kane’s grievance process, and much more. If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

InFletchWeTrust: Rumors flying around that Ryan Ellis may not want to be in Philly, and that is the reason for the yet-to-be-released nature of the injury that has kept him out all year…if true, sure seems like it just blows up Fletcher’s retooling plan…could we possibly be looking at a season even worse than this one? Who’s gonna take Ellis’ salary on, especially after a four-game season?

I don’t think there’s much to those reports. Yesterday, Ellis told reporters, including Olivia Reiner of the Philadelphia Inquirer, that it took visits to several specialists and a wide range of testing before they were finally able to identify the root cause of the injury – a multi-layered one in his pelvic region. Perhaps the reason that it took so long to identify the injury wasn’t because he wanted out and was being difficult but rather that the injury took a long time to identify? That makes a lot more sense to me.

Ellis, who also clearly stated his desire to remain in Philadelphia in that same press conference, has been around long enough to recognize that missing 78 games due to injury in a season more or less tanks that person’s trade value. Even if he wanted out, he’d be smart enough to know that a trade request coming from his situation would almost certainly fall on deaf ears. It doesn’t matter who could take his salary on – he’s not going anywhere. He wouldn’t have solved all of the issues for the Flyers this season but a full year from him would really make that back end a lot better.

Nha Trang: Alright, here’s one: what team’s going to be the surprise club that makes an unexpectedly deep postseason run?

My first thought is whoever comes out of the Minnesota-St. Louis series. Both of those teams are good enough to give Colorado a good run for their money in the second round. The Avs could get Nashville without Juuse Saros which could be a quick series, giving them a long layoff and with the intensity I expect we’ll see between the Blues and Wild, that could hurt Colorado early in a potential series as they adapt after what could be an easier series against the Predators. If that’s enough to see Minnesota or St. Louis move on, they’d be going deeper than many expect.

I can’t think of a great option from the East to pick as I don’t really see any big upsets happening in the first round. If Boston can get by Carolina (which could happen with the Hurricanes dealing with goalie issues of their own), they’d have a good shot at getting out of that side of the bracket which would surprise many but I don’t think we’ll be overly shocked at the results in that conference in the next couple of weeks.

urban shocker: Alternatively, which team is overrated and will fold like a cheap suit?

I’m hesitant to call a team overrated as it’s a good accomplishment to make it to the playoffs. But if you’re asking me for a team that could be a quick out, Dallas comes to mind. Teams with a negative goal differential typically don’t fare well in the postseason (although there have been some exceptions) but I don’t think their goaltending is good enough to shut down Calgary’s attack while Jacob Markstrom and Calgary’s back end are quite strong.

In terms of a perceived contender that could go early, Tampa Bay comes to mind. Yes, they’re the reigning back-to-back champions but that’s actually a main reason why I’m a little leery about them. They’ve played a ton of games the last two years, playing well into the summer. We saw this season that the other teams that played deep into the playoffs last year get decimated by injuries (Vegas and Montreal, in particular) and I can’t help but think the Lightning could get caught by that at some point. Maybe it’s not in the first round but I wouldn’t be surprised if they go out earlier than expected. Carolina could be in trouble depending on their goaltending situation as well.

W H Twittle: Injuries are a big part of the playoffs. Which teams are less likely to go into a tailspin if one of their top d-men gets injured and which teams are most vulnerable?

As Montreal showed last year, teams can overcome iffy defensive depth (their bottom two defenders hardly played) as long as they have a strong top four. For me, that means the teams that have strong third pairings with players that can move up are the ones that shouldn’t be hindered as much in that scenario although losing a top rearguard would be problematic for everyone.

In terms of teams that have the strong defensive depth to potentially overcome a top player going down, Colorado comes to mind. Assuming he stays healthy, Bowen Byram is capable of moving into the top four and their depth defenders (Jack Johnson and Ryan Murray, when healthy) can be counted on. Boston’s depth is pretty strong as well and while Carolina isn’t as deep, they have five top-four defenders on their roster that would help mitigate the loss.

On the other hand, Nashville’s back end certainly isn’t as deep as it once was and losing one of their better options would be quite costly, especially if it’s coupled with Saros’ uncertainty in goal. The Kings have already been dealt a tough blow with Drew Doughty’s absence and another core blueliner going down would be quite costly. In the East, the Rangers look a little vulnerable on that front; I was a bit surprised they didn’t do more on the back end at the deadline beyond adding Justin Braun. Washington couldn’t afford any upgrades at the deadline but their defense corps would greatly be thinned out with a key player going down as well.

Johnny Z: Is there a chance that Kevin Fiala signs an Offer Sheet? 16 teams could do a 5 x $8M.

You’re correct in that there are that many teams that have the draft picks to do that type of offer sheet but of those, how many have the cap space to do it? Of those that do, how many are rebuilding and couldn’t really justify parting with three draft picks (a first, second, and a third) to bring Fiala in? Now we’re dealing with a pretty small list.

Is it possible that he signs an offer sheet? In theory, sure. Minnesota’s vulnerable with their cap situation for next season and those are the teams to try to take advantage of. But I don’t think he’s really a viable candidate for a couple of reasons.

First, I don’t think his situation gets to the point where an offer sheet is an option. Either he’s traded before the start of free agency or the Wild have opened up the cap space to keep him by moving someone else so I’m not sure he gets to the point where a team could even offer him one. But for the sake of discussion, let’s say it gets that far. I think Fiala would be more inclined to file for arbitration and take himself out of the offer sheet picture, get a one-year deal with a big raise, and hit unrestricted free agency in his prime. There should be more interest in him as a UFA than as an RFA through an offer sheet so why not wait for a stronger market? An offer sheet could happen but I don’t think Minnesota should be concerned about the possibility.

selanne 76: Assuming that the Jets clean house from a coaching perspective, who comes in as Head Coach to shake up and demand accountability from this leadership group? Will it even be the same leadership group?

Assuming Dave Lowry isn’t back behind the bench next season, this will be one of the biggest decisions of GM Kevin Cheveldayoff’s tenure. This is a team that’s built to win now, not a few years from now. For me, that’s a strike against most of the first-time head coaching candidates; they need someone who is going to get under their skin quickly and whip them into shape. A few years from now, the act will wear thin and that will coincide with a likely rebuild.

Writing those sentences out, John Tortorella immediately comes to mind. He gets buy-in from his teams quickly and isn’t going to put up with the varying levels of effort that plagued the Jets this season. They need that but I don’t think he’s necessarily the right fit to unlock the offensive potential this group has. If Vancouver doesn’t get something done with Bruce Boudreau, I like that fit. Jim Montgomery is someone that’s in between those two. He has some experience and success running an NHL bench in Dallas, albeit playing low-event hockey that may not be the best for Winnipeg. But I think he can fix some of the defensive concerns they have and be a fresh voice that this team would certainly benefit from. I think he’d be a good fit overall for them so I’ll pick him.

I think it will largely be the same core group in place although Mark Scheifele’s comments to reporters, including Sportsnet’s Ken Wiebe postgame today certainly raise some eyebrows. Cheveldayoff is known to be one of the safer general managers out there and assuming they do bring in a new voice (which could turn into several if there are changes on the bench as well), he may be inclined to think that will be the spark they need. I lean that way myself, actually. Winnipeg has a pretty strong core group in place. A fresh voice and some depth improvement may very well be enough to get them back into the playoff picture next season.

SpeakOfTheDevil: Assuming Ruff and his entire staff are fired by the Devils, who do you see replacing them behind the bench? Really looking for coach, two assistants, and goalie coach here.

I don’t see changes coming in New Jersey, to be honest. I don’t think it’s really needed. Yes, it was an ugly season but this wasn’t a playoff team heading into the year. We saw Jack Hughes take a big step forward offensively while Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt had career years as well. That’s a good thing.

I view Lindy Ruff as a transitional coach. He’s not the one that’s going to lead them back into contention but his job is to maximize the development of some of their core youngsters. That’s what’s happening. When the time is right for them to get back into playoff contention, then bring in the coach that you expect will be around for a while. They’re not there yet.

You’ve asked about goaltending in past mailbags and that was a big part of their problems this season. But that’s not on the head coach. When you’re trotting out an AHL tandem, that can’t even all be pinned on the goalie coach although Mackenzie Blackwood’s struggles should be noted.

It’s hard to pinpoint specific candidates for assistant coaches. They’re usually picked by the head coach and as I said, I don’t think a change is coming. As for a goalie coach, if they were making a change there, it’d probably be for another first-time coach who worked on the development side before. Basically, the same path as Dave Rogalski. There’s no point in me guessing a name as I’d basically be picking names at random; there’s no publicized list of goalie coaches that are on the verge of getting an opportunity.

I know you want new names on here but I think they keep the status quo, make some changes in goal, reallocate P.K. Subban’s salary to fill some other areas of need, and see where that gets them. Probably not a playoff spot but a step or two closer and then they’ll assess if the time is right to bring in the coach that’s going to help them take that next step forward.

Millville Meteor: How does this year’s draft class stack up against past classes and the 2023 class? Deep or thin beyond Wright and Cooley?

YzerPlan19: To add to that, would you consider Wright the consensus #1? Who is unseating him if not? Who are your top 5 in order?

I’m going to qualify this by mentioning that I haven’t done a ton of draft research yet so I can’t dig too deep into this, especially in terms of thinking of player comparables to compare this group to previous draft classes. Personally, I want to see how things go in the major junior playoffs and the World Championships before starting to hone in on some player-specific details and finalize my own rankings.

But the sense I get is that the top of this draft class is pretty deep; teams picking towards the back half of the lottery should still have a good chance of landing a core piece. However, it doesn’t have a true franchise player like the 2023 draft is expected to in Connor Bedard. There are going to be several quality impact players but I don’t know if we see a superstar player come out of this group.

As for my top five as things stand:

1) Shane Wright, C, Kingston (OHL) – He didn’t get off to a great start but his second half has been quite strong. He looks like he should be a top-line two-way center and those types of players have long and fruitful NHL careers. I wouldn’t call him a lock to go first overall but it’s his spot to lose and should be viewed as the consensus number one.

2) Logan Cooley, C, US NTDP (USHL) – He’s a bit undersized but his offensive skill-set is quite impressive. And if a team thinks he can stick down the middle – he should be able to – it’d be hard to see him slipping past here.

3) Simon Nemec, D, Nikta (Slovakia) – He’s now the consensus top defenseman in this draft class. He’s a mobile two-way defenseman who has been playing in the pros on a full-time basis for the last two seasons. He’s also a right-shot rearguard which is always in high demand.

4) David Jiricek, D, Plzen (Czechia) – Had he not been injured at the World Juniors, he could have pushed Nemec for the top blueliner. Another right-handed two-way rearguard, Jiricek could fall due to how much time he has missed but a potential top-pairing defender would be hard to pass up.

5) Juraj Slafkovsky, LW, TPS (SM-liiga) – The Olympic standout has shown flashes of offensive dominance but was quiet for stretches of the year as well. But he also played a regular shift in a strong league which counts. Matthew Savoie could also play his way into that spot, depending on how his playoffs go.

rickg: When will the results of the Evander Kane grievance be announced? The Sharks were given the go-ahead by the NHL main office and Bill Daly the NHL Deputy Commissioner right when the situation came to a head. Now almost four months later, the Sharks are still being held hostage by this whole grievance process.

The proceedings aren’t even over yet actually. The first hearing was held back on April 19th but they didn’t get through everything and a second date will need to be set. With Edmonton now in the playoffs, it might be a while before that gets set as Kane’s camp won’t want to take Kane’s focus away from the postseason.

I get the uncertainty from a San Jose perspective but I don’t know how worried they are about this from a cap perspective. They clearly felt they were within their rights to declare a material breach of contract and the NHL signed off on it. They don’t do that if they think there’s a strong chance that his contract is getting retroactively reinstated on their books in its entirety after the grievance hearings.

Obviously, I’m speculating here but I think their goal is to quietly reach a settlement along the lines of the one that Mike Richards and the Kings worked out ($10.5MM spread out over 17 years) where he’s on the cap for a long time but it’s small enough on an annual basis that it doesn’t materially affect their salary cap situation. If that’s the end goal or expectation, it shouldn’t be holding them up from doing much.

I get your concern as the worst-case scenario isn’t pretty for the Sharks and would force their hand to cut some salary in a very unfavorable situation. But assuming this eventually winds up being settled (the delay in the second hearing can only help on that front), I think they’ll at least come out okay without having to drastically dump money. It’d obviously be nice to have some certainly one way or another but I don’t think we’ll see that in the immediate future.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Looking At Phil Kessel’s Impending Free Agency

April 28, 2022 at 4:15 pm CDT | by Josh Erickson 12 Comments

Earlier in the week, PHR’s own Ethan Hetu covered the situation surrounding the pending free agency of Carolina Hurricanes forwards Vincent Trocheck and Max Domi. Now, however, we pivot to the Western Conference, turning the magnifying glass on Arizona Coyotes veteran (and two-time Stanley Cup champion) Phil Kessel. Arizona opting to not move Kessel for a return at this year’s Trade Deadline surprised many. The NHL’s now-resident iron man has a respectable 52 points in 81 games this year on a Coyotes team that’s put up just 202 goals on the season, the worst such number in the NHL, and that wasn’t due to a crazy post-deadline bump in production. Now, after the eight-year contract extension he signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2013 expires this offseason, the 34-year-old could hit the open market for the first time in his NHL career.

The bottom line remains that the Coyotes need NHL forwards next season. While their situation for 2022-23 has improved slightly after the acquisitions of young forwards Jack McBain and Nathan Smith, it’s unlikely that both of them (especially McBain) are ready for full-time NHL roles as soon as this fall. With the team surely a no-go destination for most of the NHL’s free-agent pool due to their arena situation, it’s not too far out of left field to assume Arizona’s choice not to move Kessel was influenced by the team’s desire to extend the veteran before he hits the open market.

If Kessel decides though, as he very well could, to join a team with more hype for 2022-23, the market for him should and will likely be there. While Kessel does just have eight goals on the year, his disastrous 4.7 shooting percentage (the lowest figure of his career) offers a compelling explanation for that. He’s not a factor defensively and hasn’t been for a few seasons now, but he remains a skilled and intelligent play-driver as evidenced by his 44 assists on the year. The fact that he’s having his best offensive season in Arizona in the year where he’s had the least talent surrounding him is sure to convince multiple general managers that Kessel still has it in him as a middle-six winger.

One near-perfect past comparable to Kessel’s situation is that of Corey Perry. Bought out a few years ago by the Anaheim Ducks, Perry signed a one-year, $1.5MM contract in Dallas after a career-worst season in Anaheim. He’s managed to continue performing as an extremely valuable depth piece on successful teams, helping provide secondary scoring. Kessel likely fits right into this mold, and could see a similar one- or two-year deal signed this offseason, albeit likely with a higher price tag. Perry had just 10 points the prior season, with Kessel outproducing that by about five times.

While there are multiple younger, flashier options on the market this offseason, they’re also a lot more expensive than Kessel would be. A short-term deal limits the negative implications of the contract if Kessel does enter a steep decline, and his Stanley Cup pedigree is obviously attractive around the league. A cap hit in the $4MM neighborhood seems likely for Kessel on a one- or two-year deal, though it could of course be lower if he opts to take a discount to join a cap-strapped contender. Arizona would likely need to offer more than that number to retain his services if they wish.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Looking At Max Domi’s Impending Free Agency

April 26, 2022 at 8:00 pm CDT | by Ethan Hetu 8 Comments

After taking a look at the upcoming free agency situation of Vincent Trocheck, we now pivot to looking at the future of his Hurricanes teammate, Max Domi. Tonight Domi hit an important milestone in his career: 500 NHL games played. Domi is famously the son of enforcer Tie Domi, who spent the majority of his career with just one team: the Toronto Maple Leafs. The stability that Tie Domi found once he established himself in Toronto is not something Max has managed in his career, and as a pending unrestricted free agent, the second Domi looks set to potentially land on the fifth NHL team of his career despite being just 27 years old.

As we previously mentioned when going over the situation of Trocheck, the Hurricanes already have significant cap dollars tied to their forward corps, (and more specifically their top three centers) and have important extensions to consider down the line. As a result, it is likely that Domi, who arrived in Carolina as part of a buzzer-beating deadline-day trade, is a pure rental for the team. So the former London Knights star looks primed to hit the unrestricted free-agent market for the first time in his career.

But what should his market look like? Domi is a bit of an enigmatic player. He is very talented offensively, having produced at an elite level once before (when he had 72 points for the Montreal Canadiens in the 2018-19 season) and having the overall skill level to appear on highlight reels. Additionally, Domi plays with a level of energy and enthusiasm that one would expect from the son of Tie Domi, and he plays a style that allows him to quickly endear himself to fans. Although coaches have mostly preferred to keep him on the wing, Domi also has experience playing center, which adds to his value. But with those positives comes a sometimes maddening level of inconsistency, as well as a shaky defensive game. Domi butted heads with coach John Tortorella in Columbus, and near the end of his tenure in Montreal, he found himself relegated to fourth-line center duty. So despite his intriguing package of skills and desirable work ethic, Domi’s overall offering as a free agent is more mixed than it may initially seem.

All of those factors make assessing what Domi could cost on the open market a challenging prospect. With many players, there are typically some generally accurate comparable players to use as a benchmark for estimating what kind of contract a player can command in free agency. But with Domi, are there many comparables that make sense for his situation? One tool we have to assess how Domi is viewed leaguewide is his trade value. It’s not perfect, as there are a whole host of factors that go into an in-season trade that are not present in the summer, but it can paint a somewhat accurate picture.

Domi’s trade was a complicated three-way deal that involved a “cap broker” and multiple assets being swapped just to account for the financial aspects of the deal. But in the end, the Blue Jackets, the team trading Domi, got just one asset in return for him, the rights to prospect defenseman Aidan Hreschuk, a 19-year-old playing for Boston College. Hreschuk was a third-round pick in 2021 and had 8 points in 37 games in this NCAA season. If that return is any indication, Domi’s value has declined sharply since a few years ago, when he was the main return in Columbus’ Josh Anderson trade and earned a contract worth over $5MM AAV.

This offseason’s market for offensive skill players is one that theoretically offers teams many options, with elite scorers such as Johnny Gaudreau, Filip Forsberg, and Nazem Kadri as the headliners, meaning Domi may not be the beneficiary of a bidding war caused by an imbalance between the supply and demand of scoring talent on the market. That means that Domi may not reach the $5.3MM AAV mark he is currently earning if he wants a long-term contract. But if Domi wants a shorter-term deal, one where he can prioritize role and fit in order to re-enter the market on the back of a better platform year, that would likely make him a desirable player for many cap-strapped teams. Domi’s 2018-19 season showed that he can score at a high level in the NHL, but he hasn’t come close to that since. His decision this offseason regarding where he wants to sign as a first-time UFA could determine if he reaches those heights again.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Looking At Vincent Trocheck’s Impending Free Agency

April 24, 2022 at 2:00 pm CDT | by Ethan Hetu 11 Comments

The Carolina Hurricanes have been one of the NHL’s best teams over the past several seasons, and a major reason for that success has been their depth down the middle. The team has Sebastian Aho, one of the best centers in hockey, and Jordan Staal, who is in his tenth season with the club. In addition to those two, the team has had Vincent Trocheck since a February 2020 trade with Florida, but they may not have him for much longer. Trocheck, 28, is set to be an unrestricted free agent for the first time in his career, as the six-year, $4.75MM AAV contract he signed as a 23-year-old Panther is set to expire at the end of this season. With the Hurricanes having extended offseason addition Jesperi Kotkaniemi, getting him under contract until 2029-30 at $4.82MM against the cap, it looks as though Trocheck may be forced to join the third team of his career if he wants to maximize his earnings this summer.

That is not his preference, though. In an interview with Matt Larkin of Daily Faceoff, Trocheck reiterated his desire to stay in Carolina, saying:

That’s still the goal, to be here. I love being a Hurricane and having a chance to win every year is where you want to be. So hopefully we can figure something out.

As previously mentioned, though, staying in Carolina may not make financial sense for both the team and the player. The team has committed nearly $20MM for next season to the trio of Staal, Aho, and Kotkaniemi, and with other significant contracts on the books already, things are getting tight. Additionally, Vezina Trophy hopeful Frederik Andersen will need an extension after next season, meaning with all that in mind, Trocheck may be the player who becomes the odd man out this summer.

It may even be probable. With the extension to Tomas Hertl, the offseason’s center market is looking a bit thin. Beyond breakout Avalanche star Nazem Kadri, there aren’t many players available on this summer’s market who can play center and have a scoring pedigree. It is expected that franchise icons Evgeni Malkin and Patrice Bergeron will re-up with the only NHL clubs they have ever known, and Florida’s Claude Giroux has been more of a winger than a center in recent years. That leaves Trocheck and the Rangers’ Ryan Strome as the only two centers set to hit the market this offseason who have even crossed the 35-point mark in 2021-22, meaning the market for Trocheck this summer should be very player-friendly.

Trocheck has had a nice season in Carolina, with 20 goals and 48 points in 79 games. This is Trocheck’s fourth season where he has reached the 20-goal plateau, and he potted 17 in only 47 games last season. Trocheck also has flashed even higher levels of offensive upside, as he hit 31 goals and 75 points in the 2017-18 season with the Panthers. In addition to his offense, Trocheck has a decently well-rounded defensive game, and he ranks third among Hurricanes forwards in shorthanded time-on-ice per game. So, in short, Trocheck is a two-way center that can help a team defensively and add 20 goals and 50 points as a baseline level of offensive production. Players like that get paid on the open market, and with the aforementioned dearth of quality centers in this offseason’s free-agent class, Trocheck is lined up to get a major contract.

So even if his preference is to remain in Carolina, money is typically the ultimate deciding factor for most players, (and rightfully so) meaning Trocheck’s time as a Hurricane is likely coming to an end. But that leaves a question to be considered: with comparable centers like Kevin Hayes crossing the $7MM AAV threshold in their long-term free-agent contracts, is $7MM+ per year on a long-term contract an appropriate price to pay for a player like Trocheck, someone who is an accomplished all-around center but far from a superstar?

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

PHR Mailbag: Trophy Predictions, Kraken, UFAs, Kadri, Kings, Projections, Draft, Blue Jackets, Red Wings, Blues

April 9, 2022 at 4:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 6 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include early award predictions, an assessment of Nazem Kadri’s pending free agency, surplus depth for the Kings, and much more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back for it in last weekend’s mailbag.

NHATrang: How about some predictions for the major trophies: Hart, Norris, Vezina, Selke?

Hart Trophy – Auston Matthews (Toronto) – With there being several quality candidates, a strong finish could give someone the boost to get the award. Right now, Matthews is having quite the strong finish to his season and has a good chance at hitting 60 goals. That should make him the front-runner.

Norris Trophy – Roman Josi (Nashville) – There’s a very good case to make for Colorado’s Cale Makar but Josi has the better offensive numbers and whether we like it or not, that will stand out to some voters. I think what also will help Josi is that the Predators weren’t expected to be a playoff threat while the Avs have been viewed as contenders all season. Josi helping lead Nashville into the thick of the playoff race will carry some weight.

Vezina Trophy – Igor Shesterkin (NY Rangers) – He’s first in the NHL in save percentage (.935) and second in goals against average (2.10) and while he hasn’t had quite as high of a workload as some other starters, he has played enough that it won’t be held against him. It’s his to lose down the stretch.

Selke Trophy – Patrice Bergeron (Boston) – He still is elite at faceoffs, his possession numbers are elite, he kills penalties, and still contributes at a top-line level. He hasn’t won in four years but has been a finalist each time and there’s no reason to think he won’t be in the mix. If some writers think this could be his final year as some have speculated, that could garner him a few first-place votes as well from those who may want to send him off on top.

Tim Wilson: Much has been made of the poor performance of Seattle’s goaltending tandem in their first season. I’m wondering how the Kraken’s team defensive stats such as shots allowed compare to Grubauer and Driedger’s 20/21 teams, Colorado and Florida.

Seattle is only allowing 29.1 shots per game this season, the fourth-fewest in the entire league and second-fewest in the Western Conference. They’re trying to play a defensively responsible style knowing that they don’t have the firepower to win and have done a decent job at doing so. For comparison, Colorado last year was tops in the league at just 25.4 while Florida was in the middle of the pack at 30.0.

A lot of their struggles simply stem from poor goaltending. Philipp Grubauer is dead last among qualifying goaltenders at -29.9 goals saved above expected, per Moneypuck. That’s just in 50 games too, or 0.6 extra per game on average than he should be allowing. How many more wins would Seattle have if he was strictly middle of the pack hovering around the zero mark in that stat? They wouldn’t be a playoff team but they wouldn’t be battling for the top draft lottery odds either. Chris Driedger has done better at -1.1 goals saved above expected so he’s basically average on that front.

If you’re looking for some reason for optimism, Grubauer has been a good goalie for a while now and it’s not as if he somehow forgot how to play the position upon signing with Seattle. I’m confident he’ll be a lot better next season. Probably not enough to get them into the playoffs – they have a long way to go before that happens – but their goaltending shouldn’t be anywhere near this level in 2022-23.

Y2KAK: Early top FA predictions please!!!

This is a tough one to answer right now in that the season isn’t over yet so there’s still the potential for some fluctuation in players’ values. Personally, I don’t dig in too much into the UFA group in terms of fits and potential contracts until we start working on our annual Top 50 UFA post which is still more than two months away. But here’s a very quick overview of some of the bigger names.

Johnny Gaudreau – Re-signs in Calgary. Matthew Tkachuk’s pending RFA contract will definitely make this a tough squeeze but there’s a way to make it work if they go with a lot of minimum-salary players to round out the roster.

Nazem Kadri – I’ll look at him in more detail shortly but I don’t see him staying with Colorado.

Filip Forsberg – Re-signs with Nashville. There’s mutual interest in getting a deal done and while it’s going to contain elements the Predators don’t like (signing bonuses and trade protection), they won’t let that ultimately nix a new contract.

Penguins – Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang re-sign, Bryan Rust moves on. Malkin winds up a little lower than his current AAV while Letang is a bit higher. If they could find a way to move Jason Zucker without taking salary back, they might be able to take a late run at Rust as well.

Patrice Bergeron – Re-signs with Boston. I wouldn’t be surprised if they go year-to-year from here on out, allowing for some creativity in terms of salary and performance bonus structure.

Claude Giroux – He’s not re-signing with Florida, that’s pretty much a given. There seems to be a bit of smoke with his hometown Senators and that would make a lot of sense as that team needs an impact veteran to really round out their improving forward group.

John Klingberg – I wouldn’t be shocked if Dallas eventually worked out a deal with him but for now, I’ll say he moves on. If Detroit is ready to flip the switch and go for it, I think they’ll be seriously in the mix at least.

Ville Husso – I pegged him to New Jersey in a hypothetical scenario in last weekend’s mailbag so I’ll stick with them.

M34: What are Kadri’s next contract terms and which team gives it to him?

Boy, did Kadri ever pick a good time for a career year. He sits 13th in league scoring heading into today’s action and, perhaps more notably, sixth above centers. What better way to argue that he’s capable of being a top pivot than by being among the top-scoring middlemen in the league.

That said, I don’t he’s going to be able to command the type of deal that a top-producing center typically would. He’ll be 32 when next season starts so there will be concern about a drop-off occurring sooner than later. His previous career high in points is 61 so it’s not as if there’s a track record of him scoring like this. Plus, there’s his lengthy suspension history – six in total. At this point, the suspensions are getting more severe each time to the point where his next one could be in the double-digits. That will make some teams hesitant.

In spite of all that, he’s heading for a nice contract. His maximum term, assuming it’s not Colorado that re-signs him, is seven years and while teams may not want to sign him for that long, that final year or two could be used to smooth out the AAV a little bit. So I’ll say he gets the max-term with a seven-year deal with an AAV around $8MM. I don’t think he’ll be worth that contract in the end but he plays a premium position which will help to mitigate some of the aforementioned concerns.

W H Twittle: What can the L.A. Kings be expected to do with their prospects who are mostly RDs or Cs? Cs can be moved to the wings if they can score. But moving defensemen to their wrong side is seldom a good move. Do they start looking to trade a few prospects this summer or before the draft for the players they feel will help them next year?

While it isn’t ideal to have defensemen on their wrong side, it’s quite common. Most NHL teams have at least one blueliner on his off-side in each game. It’s usually a lefty on the right but it’s not implausible that a righty can go on the left if need be. I’m also not convinced it’s a logjam they need to deal with right now. Jordan Spence could plausibly be back in the minors, leaving Drew Doughty, Matt Roy, and Sean Durzi as the three that break camp. It’s not a situation that necessarily has to be dealt with in the near future.

As for their center situation, I agree that some can move to the wing but that is a short-term solution. Potential impact centers are always in high demand but the Kings could run the risk of devaluing them if they stay on the wing for too long. If they’re shifting towards win-now mode, yes, moving some of that surplus could make sense. The question is who to move. They probably don’t want to move Alex Turcotte while Gabriel Vilardi and Lias Andersson have seen their value dip; Rasmus Kupari has had a nice year in a depth role but his value isn’t sky-high. If they think Turcotte still could be a top center a few years from now, that could make Quinton Byfield the one to watch for if they want to move a promising youngster for a shorter-term difference-maker.

The Duke: All-knowing and -seeing MB Crystal Ball, please weigh in on the following queries: 1. How do the SJS and Preds’ goaltending shake out next season and the next few years? 2. Career trajectories for Mssrs Zadina & Sandin (are either on new teams soon)? 3. And finally, what team does John Gibson suit up for next season? As always, much thanks.

1) Let’s look at San Jose first. Obviously, they need to move a goalie this summer. My guess is that it’s James Reimer as whoever is GM at that time will likely want to give the two younger goals (Adin Hill and Kaapo Kahkonen) a longer look. They’re both 25 at the moment and in a perfect world, that’s their tandem for the foreseeable future. They don’t have a top goalie prospect in their system and as they have several high-priced contracts for a while, they need to go with cheaper options. A platoon costing somewhere between $6MM to $7MM combined would help so I expect those two will be given a chance to be longer-term options.

As for Nashville, theirs is a little easier to predict. I don’t see anyone supplanting Juuse Saros as the starter as long as Saros is under contract which is through the 2024-25 season. By then, Yaroslav Askarov should be NHL-ready. They’ll need a bridge backup for a couple of years – someone like Reimer would make a lot of sense, to be honest – but there will be several of those available in free agency each year so they could just look to go year-to-year with low-cost options.

2) Filip Zadina – I have my doubts that he’ll be able to live up to his draft billing and become the top-line winger many felt he had the potential to be. That said, he certainly has some offensive talent which will keep him in the league for a while. I could see him being a player who hovers around 40-50 points most years (slightly higher at times) and bounces between the second and third lines. That’s a pretty good career trajectory overall even if it’s a bit underwhelming relative to where he was picked. As for being on a new team in the somewhat near future, I think there’s a good chance that happens.

Rasmus Sandin – I’ve talked about him in the past and I don’t see him being a high-end point-getter in the NHL. To me, he projects as a secondary offensive threat, someone that will have a floor of 25 points every year and could creep up over 40 in a good year. I also see no reason why Toronto would want to move him anytime soon, they need cost-controllable blueliners and he’ll be that for a little while yet, even through his first (and possibly second) trip through restricted free agency.

3) Unless Gibson wants out and makes it known, I have no reason to think it won’t be Anaheim. If you go back and look at the trade market for good goalies, the word underwhelming comes to mind. When was the last time an above average goalie that was signed for several more seasons was moved for a return that made you think ‘wow, that’s a really good trade’? Certainly not lately. If the options are either take an underwhelming return or hold onto Gibson, the latter path is the right way to go for them.

trak2k: Is it better to draft for need or draft the best available player? Depending of course on draft position and/or what a team needs.

I’ve always believed that BPA is the way to go. This isn’t like the NFL where drafted players play the next season as only a handful make the jump right away. By the time the player is ready to play, the team needs at that point may very well be different than they were when he was drafted.

That said, if you have a group of players with similar scouting scores, then sure, picking the one that fits a perceived organizational need makes sense. But at the same time, if a team is in that situation, I’d be more inclined to pick the one that plays a more premium position (center or right defense) as they’re always in high demand.

By drafting the best player available, a team sets itself up for the best options. The player can be afforded extra development time if he plays a position they’re well set in and I’m a proponent of a slower development curve in most cases. If there are too many players at one spot, then good trade opportunities arise. And, of course, there’s a better chance of a BPA pick making it over a reach selection to pick for need. BPA all the way.

@PhilPageau12: Any news on when the tickets will be on sale for the NHL Draft ‘22 in MTL? Thx!

I reached out to the team last weekend and was told that there is no date in place yet for when tickets will be released to the public. The league runs the event and – this is my own speculation here – the fact that it wasn’t that long ago that they were unsure if the event would be held in Montreal due to restrictions might be part of the delay. Why go through the process of getting everything planned out when they were considering the possibility of having to move it elsewhere?

Now that it’s confirmed to be in Montreal in July, I anticipate there will be some clarity on that front over the next couple of weeks.

baji kimran: As a Columbus fan, I’ve watched other teams lay siege to our goalies all season long because of poor defensive play. Is the Jackets’ best bet to take their time and solve this through the draft and player development or might there be reasonable solutions available through trade or free agency? The Jackets have clearly overachieved this year, but they are a long way from where they want to be with the current roster. I fear regression next season if their blueline issues are not resolved.

The Blue Jackets have tried the patchwork approach to keep the core together but that time has come and gone. This certainly feels like the early stages of a longer-term rebuild so yes, I’d say their best bet is to be patient and build through the draft with a heavy emphasis on player development. There are already some encouraging pieces in the system and with what should be two lottery picks in July (unless Chicago’s pick falls in the top two selections), they can add two more.

It’s quite possible that there is some regression next season in terms of their point total as I agree that they’ve overachieved. But if their drop-off next season comes with young players playing key roles and going through the trials and tribulations that youngsters often go through, that’s okay. If Adam Boqvist and Jake Bean are playing bigger roles and showing signs of improvement, it’ll be worth the short-term pain for the long-term gain for Columbus. They’re on the right track but they’re a few years away from getting back into legitimate playoff contention.

Johnny Z: Assuming Blashill is replaced this offseason, who are the top candidates besides Lane Lambert?

I’ll start my answer with another question – what type of coach should Detroit be seeking? If they’re looking to emerge from their rebuild and push for a playoff spot next season, a proven bench boss may be the way to go. If they’re not quite ready to do that yet, then it’s either a transitional coach (which could be Jeff Blashill for another year) or a younger coach that they think is their long-term solution behind the bench.

Among the veterans, the usual names come to mind – Claude Julien, John Tortorella, maybe Rick Tocchet. If Vancouver goes in a different direction with Bruce Boudreau, he’d be in that mix as well. Those are all familiar names so there’s no need to go into much detail there. If it’s a transitional coach, Ben Simon, the head coach at AHL Grand Rapids, would have to be considered the favorite. I wonder if Jim Montgomery will get a look this summer and he fits in a shorter-term tryout type of role that a transitional coach would be in.

But if you’re mentioning Lambert, you’re looking for younger coaches that are under the radar so I’ll toss out a few of those. Spencer Carbery is in his first year as an NHL assistant with Toronto but was widely regarded with AHL Hershey in his three years with them. I could see him garnering some interest. Seth Appert had a long run in college before a stint with the US National Team Development Program and is now in his second season with AHL Rochester. It may be a little early for him but I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets an interview this offseason. At the college level, Nate Leaman has done quite well in his 11 seasons in Providence and the time may be right to make the jump to the pros.

Gmm8881: I would love to see the Blues re-sign both Ville Husso and Charlie Lindgren. Move Binnington to Toronto for two or three prospects from their reserve list. Makes room for the Blues’ upcoming kids from being blocked. MUCH needed cap space would be realized.

You mention how St. Louis would save cap space with a move of Jordan Binnington for prospects but how do the Maple Leafs afford that deal? If they’re trading for a goalie, Petr Mrazek and the two years left on his deal are almost certainly going to be in the trade which wipes out more than half of the cap savings. And considering Mrazek cleared waivers last month and has been hurt since then, it’s not a situation where you could simply say Toronto could move Mrazek elsewhere.

I also don’t think it’s wise to go with a Husso-Lindgren tandem next season. They don’t have a full NHL season of games under their belt combined let alone individually. Husso is probably a strong-side platoon goalie next year so whoever gets the pending UFA needs a proven backup to partner with him. Lindgren looked good in limited action this season but there’s a reason he has been viewed as a third-stringer for several years now. They’d save money in your scenario but that would certainly be a risky tandem and I’m not sure the risk is worth the reward. If Binnington isn’t back and Husso is, they need a more proven backup.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Mailbag: Islanders, Flyers, Sharks, Weber, Wright, Devils Goaltending, Draft, Prospect Rights, Wild

April 2, 2022 at 3:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 8 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what’s next for Philadelphia, Shea Weber’s contract, guessing the future of New Jersey’s goaltending, an overview of how long teams can hold the rights to a prospect, and much more. If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag column.

FearTheWilson: The Islanders have one of the oldest teams in the league, limited cap space, lack scoring depth, and need to sign some defensemen this summer. Is there any way out of this mess or will they be just another team who came close but couldn’t win?

Based on GM Lou Lamoriello’s recent extensions, the plan to get out of their struggles is to double down on the current core. I get why as the core group is decent, Ilya Sorokin is a solid goalie and the way they play works in the playoffs. With a more normal schedule that doesn’t involve a 13-game road trip to start the season that’s followed by a particularly rough COVID outbreak, they very well could have been in the mix.

They can save some money if they can find a suitable trade for Semyon Varlamov and find a cheaper backup which would allow them to put a couple million or so into their back end (or another offensive forward), that would help. And with Noah Dobson being the only impact player that needs a new contract, they will have a bit of wiggle room to try to upgrade the roster.

In Lamoriello’s eyes at least, the solution is a couple of roster improvements and stability. If they get that, then they should be in the Wild Card mix and as we’ve seen, if they can get into the playoffs in 2023 with the group they have and the way they play, they could win a round or two.

Black Ace57: What is the Flyers’ plan? They haven’t really established a core ready to contend and they don’t want to rebuild.

In Fletch We Trust: Thoughts on Flyers HC for next year? Is Chuck gonna stick with Yeo? Or does he (I hope) see the need to go outside the organization and find someone to help change the culture?

Let’s combine the Flyers questions. The second part of the first question actually is the framework for their plan. To me, it seems like they think they have enough quality core pieces in place to be a playoff-caliber team. Make a couple of tweaks, hope for some better luck with injuries (Ryan Ellis and Sean Couturier in particular), and they could very well be in the thick of a Wild Card battle a year from now. I know things haven’t gone well lately but I look at that team on paper and think it has the potential to be a lot more competitive than they’ve shown this season.

I’m particularly interested to see what happens in free agency. Do they find a way to clear James van Riemsdyk’s deal off the roster and try to go after a big fish to basically replace Claude Giroux? I suspect that is their intention and if they can find a way to add another core piece, their fortunes could turn around fairly quickly. Not to the point of being a contender, mind you, but their approach feels like the target is simply to get to the playoffs and a few tweaks could theoretically be enough to get them there.

Speaking of tweaks, I expect this will be one of them. I’d be surprised if Mike Yeo has the interim tag lifted at the end of the season. He’s the holdover from Alain Vigneault’s staff and it’s not as if they’ve been better since the coaching change. If GM Chuck Fletcher truly believes in this core, a new voice is one card that can be played to try to give this team a spark and potentially provide a culture change as well. Having someone currently around the team on a day-to-day basis behind the bench would make it very difficult to accomplish that particular objective.

Nha Trang: San Jose: $70 million committed next year to only 17 NHL contracts, and major bucks committed to elderly, underproducing players. Buy out Vlasic? Someone else? Bribe another team to take Burns’ or Karlsson’s contract off their hands? Hold their noses and pray? What’s the solution?

A buyout of Marc-Edouard Vlasic’s contract would only push the problem down the road as the varied structure of the deal actually would yield buyout costs of roughly $4.2MM in 2024-25 and $5.2MM in 2025-26. Sure, they’d save a fair bit on the first two seasons but that’s only a short-term fix.

They’re going to have to move a goalie – presumably either Adin Hill or James Reimer – which will save a little over $2MM in cap room but most of that will be redirected to Kaapo Kahkonen. I suspect they will try to get out of Radim Simek’s deal and with only two years left on it, they may be able to find a taker in a swap that would bring a forward back. Even Nick Bonino’s deal could be replaced with someone making a bit less.

There is, of course, one other wild card – Evander Kane. Will their contract termination stand without any cap penalties or will there be some sort of retroactive penalty similar to Mike Richards and the Kings in the past? If yes, how much will it cost? That will help determine if there is a bigger cost-cutting move to make.

As things stand, I think they can fill out their roster and be cap-compliant next year. They won’t be any better than they are now but it may be their only viable solution. They’re in a tough spot and they don’t have the prospect pool to get themselves out of trouble just yet. In the summer of 2023, Brent Burns is only down to two years left which will make him a little easier to move than he is now. Vlasic would be down to three years and maybe a move is slightly easier then. In the meantime, they’re going to need to just tread water.

W H Twittle: Are there teams other than Vegas and Minnesota that may be interested in Shea Weber’s contract? And why?

I don’t think either of those teams would be interested in him at all. Minnesota’s was suggested as a hypothetical and it was quickly pointed out that it wouldn’t work for them and since then, there has been no suggestion that they’re actually interested. As for Vegas, why would they take on four years of an LTIR contract? Yes, it’s quite possible they try for another LTIR deal if they want to try the Evgenii Dadonov move again but there are contracts that can be acquired that are a lot shorter than four years. It stands to reason they’d opt for one of those. Ryan Kesler was preferable because his deal is an expiring one and they’d have minimal lingering commitments (just the rest of John Moore’s deal).

While Weber is likely on LTIR for the rest of his career (the league hasn’t signed off on that particular ruling yet which is why there hasn’t been an official announcement), there are lingering commitments. He still counts against the 50-contract limit, his $7.857MM AAV is factored into calculations for the offseason cap (10% above the Upper Limit each year), a chunk of the salary has to be paid as the deal isn’t fully insured, and if it’s a cap-spending team that has his contract, they have an inability to bank cap space which means that any bonuses earned in a season become a carryover penalty for next year. This is why Montreal wants to move him even though they haven’t even fully gotten clear of salary cap recapture liability yet with his deal (although the amount they’d potentially be on the hook for would be less than $1MM in total which pales in comparison to Nashville’s number).

So, who might be interested? It sounds like there were talks with Arizona which makes a bit of sense as they have no intention of spending to the cap ceiling and would rather hang around the cap floor. With Weber’s salary being lower than his AAV, there’s some potential for savings in total dollars being spent which, with as small of an arena as they’ll be playing out of for a little while, is notable. (It’s the same reason that they took on Bryan Little’s contract from Winnipeg.) But they’re about the only viable fit for that contract for now because of how much longer it runs.

MillvilleMeteor: What would a trade package look like for the Ducks to trade up and grab Shane Wright at the number one spot in the draft?

More than they should be willing to pay. Considering Wright is projected to be an impact center, Trevor Zegras or Mason McTavish would have to be the focal point of the offer with Anaheim also needing to part with their first-rounder which is hovering around 10th overall at the moment. Considering the almost always exorbitant asking price for a first-overall selection (which is why they basically never move), there’s probably another piece that would need to be involved as well in the range of a late first or early second-rounder or an equivalent prospect.

There’s a high sticker shock with a number one pick and frankly, it’s not one anyone should really be willing to pay this year. Wright’s going to be a very good NHL center but he’s not a franchise player, not compared to the top picks in the class of 2023. If you’re going to make the big move and cash in some of those younger assets, it needs to be for someone that you can really build around. I’m not sure Wright is that caliber of player.

With the moves they’ve recently made, Anaheim is in a spot where they need to stay on the course that they’re on. Make these extra picks they’ve acquired and continue to develop their young core. In a year or two when their top youngsters are further along in their development, then they can look towards some win-now pieces. But in terms of pick or prospect consolidation, I don’t think that’s the route the Ducks should be taking.

SpeakOfTheDevil: Who are the Devils’ 1A and 1B goalies next year? Assuming Bernier is done and Blackwood gets traded.

I’m not convinced Mackenzie Blackwood is ultimately dealt but I’ll play along with the premise and pick a new tandem. This isn’t a great UFA year in terms of starters. Darcy Kuemper is available but I don’t think he’d look at New Jersey as a viable option unless they vastly overpaid in salary. Marc-Andre Fleury probably isn’t going there and Jack Campbell looks like a bit of a risk now. That leaves Ville Husso who, quite frankly, is also a bit of a risk given his limited track record. That should limit his market to an extent where if the Devils were willing to take the plunge on a medium-term contract in the $4MM range, that might be enough to get him.

But with Husso’s limited track record, they’d need a fairly proven platoon partner and that’s not coming from free agency. Let’s turn to the trade front then. Jeremy Swayman’s season with Boston could be enough to get them to move on from Linus Ullmark’s contract (three years, $5MM AAV left after this season) as long as they get a decent goalie in return. Perhaps someone like Blackwood who could look better behind the back end of the Bruins? That would save them some short-term money (which is important with Patrice Bergeron up this summer and David Pastrnak next offseason) while giving them a serviceable second option for Swayman while Ullmark would give New Jersey a more proven partner for Husso.

The combined AAV for the tandem would be on the higher side compared to other teams but the Devils have ample cap space at their disposal and can afford it. An Ullmark-Husso tandem would certainly be an upgrade on what they have now with short enough commitments in terms of the length of the contracts to not block someone like Nico Daws if he shows he’s ready for full-time NHL duty down the road.

Grocery stick: Can you maybe give some insights into how the teams approach Russian players for the draft? Is this business as usual, or could players be reluctant to switch to North America? Could Russian top talent even drop down to the 3rd/4th round because of uncertainty?

Predicting what will happen with Russian-born players in the draft in a normal year can be tricky. In this year with these circumstances? It’s basically a total guess.

I’m going to tackle the North America part first. It’s quite possible that the CHL places a ban on Russian-born players in the Import Draft which will reduce the number of players coming over. Of those that still want to come over, will they be able to secure visas or will there be restrictions coming down the pipe? How difficult will it be to get contract information now that the NHL and KHL aren’t sharing contract info anymore? These will be factors and that should drop players lower than they’d otherwise go. Probably not to the extent you asked about but as we get into the second day of the draft, there will be several Russian-born players on the ‘Best Remaining’ lists.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see a bit of a run on Russians over the final three rounds. Why not take a flyer on a potentially higher-upside prospect even though it may be harder to bring them over down the road? In the last couple of rounds, there isn’t a lot of risk when it comes to picking players since most don’t make it to the NHL at that point so why not take a chance? Accordingly, I think the number of Russians that get drafted in July might actually be close to the usual one, it’s just that the distribution of those selections will be different.

trak2k: What is the time limit for signing a draft pick and how long does a team have the rights for a signed draft pick? Is there a time limit for how a pick can stay in say juniors (or whatever leave they came from) once they are signed before they have to go to either the NHL minor leagues or the NHL itself?

This isn’t a one size fits all type of answer but I’ll try to break it down quickly and cover most of the possibilities. For most players drafted out of the CHL, teams have two years to sign them. (An exception is a CHL-drafted player that doesn’t sign, re-enters the draft, and is selected again, then it’s only one year.) The signing date to watch for with them is June 1st.

For most college-bound players drafted at age 18 or 19, teams have until August 15th of their graduating year to sign them. Generally, that’s four years although some opt for the USHL first, then college. In that case, rights can be held for longer than four years although players can de-register and elect free agency after four seasons if they so desire.

As for international players, it’s generally four years as well as long as the country they’re from has a transfer agreement in place with the NHL with June 1st again being the cutoff date. For those that don’t (such as Russia, for example), rights are held indefinitely; there are plenty of players drafted 15 or more years ago from Russia that are still technically on the reserve list of the team that picked them.

This isn’t an exhaustive answer – Section 8.6 of the CBA which covers this is more than four pages long and has plenty of rarer scenarios if you’re interested in really digging into this – but the majority of players that are picked fall into one of these categories.

Zakis: With the Wild extending Goligoski and bringing Middleton into the fold, where do they go with the D group for next season? Does Dumba get traded, will they deal one of their D prospects for prospect forwards or stand pat?

I think there is one big trade coming out of Minnesota this offseason but I’d be surprised if it’s Mathew Dumba. He brings a much different dimension than Alex Goligoski and Jacob Middleton and it’s one their back end doesn’t have a lot of. I could see GM Bill Guerin looking to move the final year and $2.25MM of Dmitry Kulikov’s contract to free up a little bit of money but beyond that, the heavy lifting should be done on the back end. They didn’t go through all of those years with Dumba being in trade speculation to turn around and move him now.

Kevin Fiala is the one I feel could be the odd man out due to their salary cap situation (with $8MM in dead cap being added for the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts). They haven’t had any luck coming to terms on a long-term pact in the past and with the year he’s having – 61 points in 66 games – the asking price has only gone up since then. He’s one I could see being moved for prospect forwards that are nearly NHL-ready which would alleviate the cap constraints. From there, they’d be hoping that a player like Matt Boldy will find another gear in his first full NHL season and get some internal improvements from others to pick up the slack to replace Fiala’s production.

GBear: In the first five games tonight in the NHL, the five winning teams won by a combined score of 28 to 6. This isn’t uncommon on many nights in the NHL. What ideas do you have to improve the competitiveness in games, and in particular (especially in the Eastern Conference), not have a dozen or more teams effectively out of the playoff race by January?

I wouldn’t really change anything, to be honest. This season is an outlier; usually, there are playoff races that go right down to the wire like the one we’re seeing in the West. I wouldn’t want to make any significant changes based on a one-off.

There are always going to be some teams that are out of it early as they’re committed to long-term rebuilds. Those are the ones that are basically going to be out of it from October and there’s no way to really effectively prohibit tanking. This many teams, I agree, isn’t ideal but that’s what the salary cap is supposed to be for – to try to ensure some sort of talent redistribution since top teams can’t afford to keep all of their players. And if you look at the top of the Eastern Conference, most of those teams are going to be forced to part ways with quality players this summer since the Upper Limit is only going up by $1MM. Some of those players are probably going to wind up on those non-playoff squads, upping the level of parity in the process.

There’s always a case to be made to expand the playoffs, and have a play-in like the NBA has gone to. That would, in theory, motivate more teams to try to stay competitive. That’s going to be an option down the road, especially if there’s a sizable impact from a revenue perspective from having that extra mini-series (a single-game situation may not move the needle enough). But I wouldn’t be advocating for that now.

I agree, it has been a bit boring in the sense that the Eastern playoff teams have been known for quite a while. But I expect that this won’t be the start of a new trend and that there will be jostling for playoff spots down the stretch next season and beyond. Accordingly, I wouldn’t mess with anything to try to force a more level playing field from a competitiveness standpoint.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

April 1, 2022 at 11:55 am CDT | by Brian La Rose 22 Comments

It has certainly been an eventful past few weeks around the NHL with a very busy trade deadline plus a rare trade that was approved and later invalidated by the league. On top of that, the push for the playoffs is heating up with battles for seeding in the Eastern Conference and several spots up for grabs in the very tight Western Conference.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag. If you missed the last one, it was broken into two parts. The first one focused on several trade deadline scenarios while the second looked at how St. Louis can afford to keep pending UFA Ville Husso, the future of Winnipeg’s core forward group, and much more.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend.

PHR Panel: 2022 Trade Deadline Predictions

March 19, 2022 at 2:00 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 5 Comments

With just 48 hours remaining before the 2022 NHL trade deadline, things are heating up around the league. Several big moves have already been made, with Josh Manson, Brandon Hagel, Calle Jarnkrok, and Ben Chiarot all traded to contenders. There’s more coming before Monday’s deadline, with Claude Giroux and others still yet to be moved.

As we get closer, it’s time to unearth one of our old features: The PHR Panel. This time it’ll come with a bit of a twist as instead of answering questions, we’re going to have a bit of fun. Each of us will give one prediction for a deadline move, and we encouraged each other to go a bit outside the box if necessary. These deals are completely speculative and just done for fun–but make sure you tell us why we’re out of our minds in the comments!

Q: Suggest one trade that makes sense at this year’s deadline.

Brian La Rose: Pittsburgh trades Kasperi Kapanen, Marcus Pettersson to Vancouver for Conor Garland, Travis Hamonic

With all of the smoke surrounding Vancouver, it sure feels like the Canucks are going to do something. We all know team president Jim Rutherford is a big fan of Kapanen and he’s the one who gave Pettersson a five-year, $20.125MM contract that hasn’t aged very well. Clearly, he’s also a believer in him. On the other hand, he’s not the one that brought Garland in from Arizona and if they want to shake up their core, he could be the one to go instead of the likes of J.T. Miller or Brock Boeser. GM Patrik Allvin is also quite familiar with both players from his days in Pittsburgh and knows what he’d be getting with those two.

For the Canucks, they add two players that Rutherford is quite comfortable with and their hope is that Kapanen will be a better long-term fit than Garland who has quieted off after a hot start to the season. Pettersson fits as a potential partner for Tucker Poolman when he’s healthy on Vancouver’s third pairing.

As for the Penguins, Garland on the wing for one of Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin (likely the latter) would be an opportunity for him to step into the scoring role that Kapanen was supposed to provide while Hamonic would help to shore up their third pairing. His shorter-term contract than Pettersson (he’s only signed through next season) would be easier to move this summer than Pettersson’s if Pittsburgh needs to free up money to try to re-sign Malkin, Kris Letang, or Bryan Rust. Team president Brian Burke helped bring Hamonic to Calgary from the Islanders back in 2017 and that familiarity could help here as well.

From a cap perspective, it’s pretty close to neutral this season. Pittsburgh adds $725K to their books, an amount that can be offset by simply sending Radim Zohorna to the minors for the time being. Garland has one extra year left than Kapanen but is at a price tag that’s somewhat similar to what a long-term contract for Kapanen will cost. That will make the cost for Vancouver a little higher beyond this season but nothing overly drastic. In the end, it’s an old-fashioned ‘hockey trade’, one we could see a few of before Monday with so many teams right against the cap where player for player swaps will be their only realistic option.

Zach Leach: Los Angeles Kings acquire Mark Giordano

It has been very quiet out of Los Angeles with the trade deadline looming. Though they have been linked to available names here and there, they have not been painted as an active buyer. Is the young team merely content with their current squad? Or are they simply lurking in the background and waiting for the right time to strike? I believe that it’s the latter. The Kings have every reason to fight for a playoff spot this season. They have aging core players eager to make another run, promising young players who could desperately use some postseason experience, and find themselves in the weakest division in the NHL with a real chance to make a run to the Western Conference Final (and perhaps beyond). GM Rob Blake has shown a willingness to spend on prime talent of late with the Phillip Danault signing and Viktor Arvidsson trade and I would expect him to do so again with his team in a great spot in the Pacific.

Perhaps the hesitancy from the media to project major moves from the Kings comes from a lack of believability–which is somewhat well-founded. L.A. has been willing themselves to victory this season despite some concerning numbers. The team ranks second-worst among current playoff-seeded clubs in goal differential at +2, just a few unlucky bounces away from a net negative mark. Special teams have also been a nightmare; the Kings are ranked in the bottom five in both power play and penalty kill efficiency. L.A. is also below average (or worse) in scoring, hits, blocked shots, and takeaways. Pretty bleak, huh? Yet, they play a smothering defensive system and possession game that allows the fewest shots against the in the NHL and as a result, are one of the goals against leaders in the West.

So why add a defenseman? First of all, in the case of a team with numerous holes, there’s something to be said for identifying a strength and leaning into it. Plus, the injury-plagued Kings are currently out four starting defensemen, including Drew Doughty, Matt Roy, and Mikey Anderson, with Sean Walker done for the year and Alex Edler only just returning. The defense may be a strength in L.A., but they need some immediate help to keep it going.

More importantly, Mark Giordano is no ordinary defenseman. The Seattle Kraken captain is the most experienced top-four defender on the trade market with over 1,000 games played and continues to perform like a player in his prime. Even for a struggling expansion team, the 38-year-old has managed to record 23 points in 55 games and has improved his possession numbers from the past two years in Calgary. Giordano does everything that the Kings need more of; he leads the Kraken in Corsi and powerplay time on ice, is among the top three skaters in time on ice, powerplay points, shots, and blocked shots, and is among the top five skaters in assists and short-handed time on ice. On a more talented team with a strong defensive system, Giordano will only improve. Given the Kings’ poor blue line depth, it also helps that Giordano is used to eating minutes (23:35 average time on ice over the past 13 years) and has largely stayed healthy in his career. He would be well-equipped to take over a top pair spot in L.A. and eventually join with Doughty to create a formidable pairing of past Norris Trophy winners. The Kings thought that they were creating a dynamic veteran duo when signing Edler this off-season but it hasn’t worked out. They now have a second chance.

We know that the Kraken are going to deal their captain. Even though Giordano is the locker room leader for the league’s newest team, his expiring contract and high trade value will force GM Ron Francis’s hand. Giordano is currently sitting out in anticipation of a trade, protecting a prized asset–especially after the Josh Manson and Ben Chiarot trades set a high bar for top-four rentals. The Kings can offer Seattle return options that most other contenders cannot. First, they do not need to ask Seattle to retain much, if any, of Giordano’s $6.75MM price tag as their numerous injuries allow them to create additional LTIR space while eventually they will still have room for all of their currently sidelined players on the active roster outside of Walker. Additionally, while most contenders are trying to push draft picks and long-term project prospects on Seattle, the Kings are littered with elite, NHL-ready prospects. So much so in fact that the team could send one or two to Seattle for Giordano and still have plenty to send to Arizona for Jakob Chychrun in the off-season (another player that they have been linked to but whose injury status could delay a trade). The Kraken should want to improve next season rather than enter a rebuild already. Opting to send Giordano to L.A. in exchange for a player like Gabriel Vilardi, Rasmus Kupari, Jaret Anderson-Dolan, Alex Turcotte, Samuel Fagemo, Akil Thomas, or others (see what I mean by prospect depth?) is a long-term benefit but more helpful in the short-term than acquiring picks or prospects that are years away from contributing. Giordano’s familiarity with the Pacific Division, namely the division-leading Flames, is just the cherry on top of a deal that seems to be a great fit.

Josh Erickson: New York Rangers acquire Mark Giordano

It’s no secret that MVP-caliber goalie Igor Shesterkin has been the largest impetus of the Rangers’ success this season, catapulting them into a sure-fire top-three spot in the Metropolitan Division come season’s end. But the team has started to slip in recent weeks and their five-on-five play, particularly defensively, is now starting to expose cracks that have been forming all year. While no single acquisition will likely fix a team-wide issue like this, the need for a veteran left defenseman at this point is just too glaring to ignore.

As Zach details above, Giordano can be a difference-maker even at this point in his career. The Rangers can comfortably deal either their 2022 or 2023 first-round selection to Seattle, and the team also has a large number of prospects that the Kraken would be interested in taking on as well (is this a chance for Vitali Kravtsov to get a new start?).

They’ve gotten solid performances out of their top four defensemen all season, but the bottom pairing has become an issue. Patrik Nemeth has created more problems than he’s solved with his play this season, and while Giordano’s offensive game has dipped with age this year, he’s still been solid defensively. He’s a logical fit either next to Adam Fox, allowing Ryan Lindgren to draw more favorable matchups, or he can slot in on the third pairing and help mentor the young Braden Schneider as the Rangers go down the stretch run.

John Gilroy: Minnesota Wild acquire Andrew Copp

Still holding onto a playoff position in the Central Division but vulnerable, the Minnesota Wild could use a spark in their lineup, and with $11MM in cap space on deadline day, the Wild are poised to make a splash. In addition to cap space, the Wild also hold all but one of their draft picks over the next three years, missing only their 2022 seventh-round pick. One spark that seems to make plenty of sense for Minnesota is Winnipeg Jets’ forward Andrew Copp.

Copp, 27, is currently making $3.64MM and is a pending UFA, but could certainly slot into Minnesota’s long-term plans if they can re-sign him. The forward currently has 13 goals and 19 assists in 54 games for Winnipeg this season, which would put him tied for fifth on the Wild in points. However, Copp’s talent is not limited to his offense, as he currently profiles as a strong penalty killer for the Jets and is incredibly responsible, recording just eight penalty minutes in 54 games this season, and just 82 penalty minutes in 465 career games.

One concern might be the return for Copp. While the Jets are not in playoff contention, they do not appear headed for a rebuild, having a majority of their core signed or under team control through at least 2023-24. Trading Copp for draft picks, which the Wild have plenty of, would return his value, but may not make much sense for the Jets if they intend to win soon. One player that may make sense in a return for Copp would be prospect Jack McBain. The 22-year-old McBain has been the center of trade rumors recently for Minnesota, as he is eligible to hit free agency this summer. However, McBain, who is from the Toronto area, may also prefer to sign closer to home.

Ultimately, it appears that Copp is on his way out of Winnipeg, and if the two sides can come to terms on a suitable return, it would be in the best interests of the Wild to make a move for an energetic and well-rounded forward to spark a team that has struggled mightily as of late.

Gavin Lee: Detroit Red Wings trade Nick Leddy (50% retained) to St. Louis Blues for Klim Kostin, Marco Scandella

“Stevie Y is up to something.” That’s the text that Emily Kaplan of ESPN received this week, as the Red Wings prepare for the deadline in an interesting position. The team obviously isn’t good enough yet to contend for the Stanley Cup but has the building blocks to start pushing for a playoff position as soon as next season. With that in mind, targeting young players that have yet to make an impact makes sense, instead of just collecting draft picks like deadlines past.

Leddy has been linked to the Dallas Stars in recent days, and while they make sense, it seems more likely that they’re offering up a package of futures, instead of someone like Kostin who could impact the Red Wings lineup down the stretch and next season. The 30-year-old Leddy isn’t the player he once was but can still make an impact in a more limited role, something he could receive in St. Louis as they try to work their way back to the Stanley Cup.

You aren’t going to steal Kostin out of St. Louis for a few months of a depth defenseman though, so Detroit would need to provide some other value to the Blues. That’s where Scandella comes in, as the 32-year-old has taken a noticeable step back this season and is signed through 2023-24 at a $3.275MM cap hit. The thing is, for a team like the Red Wings, acquiring a cap hit like Scandella is almost meaningless given how much financial flexibility they’ve built, and he could essentially replace the veteran presence of Marc Staal next season. Scandella does hold a partial no-trade clause, but how likely is it that Detroit is one of the seven teams he has blocked?

The prize here is Kostin, a player that has struggled to find regular minutes in St. Louis. Since being selected 31st overall in 2017, the big forward has spent most of his time in the AHL, playing in most of three seasons before even making his NHL debut and now ending up back there this year. There’s a risk here for Detroit; Kostin isn’t signed past this season and could bolt for the KHL as a restricted free agent this summer, but there’s also a possibility that he establishes himself quickly as a middle-six option for a rebuilding club.

A second-round pick is nice, sure, but at some point, the Red Wings will have to start looking at players closer to the NHL. Kostin is exactly that, and the teams have a recent history of something just like this. In 2019, Detroit acquired Robby Fabbri from the Blues in exchange for Jacob de la Rose, and gave him an opportunity he wasn’t ever going to receive in St. Louis after major knee surgery. Kostin hasn’t been blocked because of injury, but perhaps the Red Wings could provide a similar chance for him to play more than the nine minutes he’s averaged over his 46-game career to this point.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Deadline Primer: Minnesota Wild

March 19, 2022 at 7:48 am CDT | by Josh Erickson 3 Comments

As we enter the middle of March, the trade deadline is inching closer. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Minnesota Wild.

In the past two seasons, the Minnesota Wild have emerged from the mold of mediocrity thanks to the long-awaited arrival of Kirill Kaprizov. The team’s sights are now set on making it out of the First Round for the first time since 2015 and to the Conference Finals for the first time since 2003, although a recent skid evidenced by their 4-5-1 record in their past ten games has set them back on that path, seemingly. Third-year general manager Bill Guerin has already made one interesting swap this month, dealing Nico Sturm to Colorado for former top-ten pick Tyson Jost. With that cap-clearing move, many thought Guerin may be up to something bigger. They now have just two days left to capitalize on that open space, though, as March 21st’s deadline looms large.

Record

35-20-4, 3rd in the Central

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$10.526MM today, $11.053MM in full-season space, 0/3 retention slots used, 44/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2022: MIN 1st, MIN 2nd, MIN 3rd, MIN 4th, MIN 5th, SJS 5th, MIN 6th
2023: MIN 1st, MIN 2nd, MIN 3rd, MIN 4th, MIN 5th, MIN 6th, MIN 7th

Trade Chips

Eyebrows across all of the hockey world raised last summer when Guerin bought out the remaining four years of Zach Parise’s and Ryan Suter’s matching gigantic contracts, resulting in what could be crippling salary cap penalties in the next few seasons before the cost of the buyouts goes down. The penalty of those deals is set to increase by ~$8MM this offseason, so this deadline is likely the most flexibility to move the Wild will have for the next four years.

One position Minnesota will likely deal from to make a trade is defense. Skilled drafting in the past few seasons by Guerin and co. has resulted in an incredibly deep all-around pool, but at this point, the defense (especially left defense) is becoming overcrowded with what look like surefire NHLers. Seemingly, the most likely of these names to be dealt is one of Ryan O’Rourke and Daemon Hunt. A second-round and third-round selection by the team in 2020, respectively, O’Rourke and Hunt have continued their torrid upward development since Draft Day, with O’Rourke playing for Canada at the abruptly-cancelled 2021 World Junior Championships. With 21-year-old Calen Addison in the mix, as well as 2021 selections Carson Lambos and Jack Peart, the Wild can deal from this position comfortably.

While the team won’t be dealing top prospects like Marco Rossi and Jesper Wallstedt, a name at forward they could look at moving is Marat Khusnutdinov. A great budding two-way center, Khusnutdinov had 12 points in 32 KHL games this season and has two more seasons remaining on his contract there. He’d be a bit of a project, but still is at least a B-grade prospect and carries significant weight in a trade.

Other Names To Watch For: F Victor Rask ($4MM, pending UFA), top picks in 2022 and 2023

Team Needs

1) Another Center — It’s entirely feasible that the Wild won’t go big-game hunting on the wings due to the emergence of Matt Boldy and the success of Jordan Greenway and Marcus Foligno on the team’s third/checking line. But they could look to add another player who can slot in at center in the middle-six. While he hasn’t played center in quite a long time, the Wild are reported to have some amount of interest in Anaheim’s Rickard Rakell, who could shuffle around forward positions as need dictates. They could also look to acquire another winger for the fourth line (a Cal Clutterbuck reunion?), giving competition to Brandon Duhaime, Nick Bjugstad, and Connor Dewar.

2) Depth Defenseman — Calen Addison hasn’t managed to carve out a regular NHL role just quite yet, and Jordie Benn just hasn’t cut it as an NHL defenseman for this team. While their bottom pairing of Jon Merrill and Dmitry Kulikov is fine at worst, injuries happen and having one of those two as your seventh defenseman is a good place to be in. A name like Brett Kulak or Justin Braun makes a lot of sense, especially to help shore up their penalty kill, which has been in free-fall mode recently.

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