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Offseason Checklist: Seattle Kraken

at CDT | by 7 Comments

The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t playoff-bound.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Seattle.

After the Golden Knights went to the Stanley Cup Final in their inaugural season, expectations were unrealistically high for the Kraken heading into their first year.  But even if they had the expectations of a typical expansion franchise, they still would have underachieved relative to those.  As a result, Seattle finds itself trying to build on multiple fronts this summer which is a certainly a tall task.

Find A New Goalie Coach

There was only one coaching casualty from their tough year and that was goalie coach Andrew Allen.  That move was understandable as, heading into the season, goaltending was believed to be their best strength with a tandem of Philipp Grubauer and Chris Driedger.  Instead, they had the lowest team save percentage in the NHL (.880) while sitting in the bottom ten in goals allowed despite allowing the fourth-fewest shots on goal.  Seattle will need to find a replacement coach and when it comes to their netminders, things can only go up from here.

Expand Young Core

Part of building an organization from scratch is trying to pick up some young core pieces.  They got one in the draft in Matthew Beniers and picked one in expansion in Jared McCann with the 25-year-old having a career year and quickly inking a long-term extension.  Beyond that, there isn’t that much of a young core.  That’s perfectly understandable after just one year of existence but this will be the top priority for GM Ron Francis this summer.

They’ll be able to add some key pieces at the draft.  They have the fourth pick in July’s draft plus four second-rounders that can be dangled in an effort to move up.  That should yield some nice long-term additions although most of those players will be several years away.

Back when the team was being assembled, cap flexibility was stated as a critical element of what they were doing.  This is something that the Kraken can use to their advantage this summer if they’re willing to take a bad contract or two while adding some more picks (or preferably prospects) like Arizona did last summer.  If the aim is to build a long-term contender, Seattle needs to have more than two long-term core pieces heading into next season.

Expand Current Core

Most general managers don’t lay out a road map for their planning but at his end-of-season news conference, Francis indicated a desire to add a top-six forward, a top-nine forward, and a puck-moving defenseman to his current group.  The forwards, in particular, could be added in free agency where the Kraken will have the ability to outbid most teams as they have nearly $23MM in cap room, per CapFriendly.  The UFA market for puck-moving blueliners isn’t as deep so going that route for that spot may be tougher so the trade front might be the better way for them there.

Last summer, Francis surprisingly handed a five-year contract to Jaden Schwartz in a move that didn’t work out too well with the oft-injured 29-year-old missing more than half of the season due to injuries.  That should serve as a cautionary tale for their free agent this time around when it comes to adding secondary scorers.

It wouldn’t be advisable to hand out similar long-term deals at this time to fill those roster spots.  Anything beyond a medium-term contract carries some risk of being a burden at the time that their young core will be ready to really try to contend.  A five-year deal for a 25-year-old (McCann) makes sense as he’ll still be young enough to be part of their plans and productive at the end of it.  A five-year deal for a 29-year-old UFA this summer probably won’t hold up as well.  They’d be wise to stick with shorter-term contracts that will be easier to move closer to their expiration.

Of course, that caveat doesn’t apply if they happen to entice one of the top free agents to join them.  In that case, you don’t say no to top talent and that player becomes a part of their current and future core.  But beyond that, playing it safe with the veterans they choose to add should be the path they choose to take.

Fill Out Farm Team

This season, Seattle didn’t have its own AHL affiliate which isn’t particularly unusual for an expansion franchise as they simply don’t have the organizational depth that more established teams do.  Instead, they teamed up with the Hurricanes, sharing their affiliate in Charlotte.  That allowed the Kraken to carry a pretty short group of contracts with only a handful of recallable players from the Checkers as the season went on.

That won’t be the case next season as Seattle will be operating the Coachella Valley Firebirds.  They certainly have plenty of work to do before the puck drops on their inaugural season in October.

At the moment, Seattle has basically the equivalent of one line signed for the Firebirds for next season (with three of those being on future deals that only start in 2022-23).  They also have goaltender Joey Daccord if they can get him through waivers in training camp.  In terms of on-ice personnel, that’s it.  Aside from those few players signed, they basically have to fill an entire team.  As a result, expect them to be very active in minor league free agency, both in terms of signing AHL free agents to AHL deals at the beginning of July and in handing out several NHL two-way deals when that market opens up near mid-July.

On top of that, they’ll need to round out their front office and coaching staff.  The Kraken added former NHL bench boss Dan Bylsma as an assistant with Charlotte and he’s a contender to be the coach in Palm Springs next season.  Francis will be building on multiple fronts this summer so expect a busy summer in Seattle.

PHR Mailbag: Golden Knights, Buyout Candidates, Gibson, Forsberg, Red Wings, NCAA

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the disappointing season for the Golden Knights, possible buyout candidates this summer, Filip Forsberg’s pending free agency, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

dayvisferreras: How big will the changes be in Vegas?? Vegas should be making big changes and stop creating greener pastures for shiny new toys. I appreciate Bill Foley’s vision but he shouldn’t add more salary to a team with no cap.

Gbear: Simply put, have you ever seen a team choke down the stretch as badly as Vegas did and do you see DeBoer getting fired after this season?

DirtbagBlues: Is Robin Lehner with the Golden Knights next season?

Let’s dig right in with some Vegas talk.

I don’t expect anywhere near the amount of change for next season for the Golden Knights that some do.  Part of that is the salary cap as obviously, they need to clear some money.  Evgenii Dadonov is probably going somewhere and Reilly Smith is a potential cap casualty as a pending UFA.  Mattias Janmark likely isn’t back as well.  If they can avoid taking a contract back in a Dadonov trade, that’s $5MM in savings from next year’s commitments, most of which can be allocated to the three forwards needed to fill those roster spots with a bit left over to apply to Nicolas Roy’s next contract.

Vegas can more or less force their way into a one-year deal for Nicolas Hague as the blueliner doesn’t have arbitration rights.  Accordingly, they don’t necessarily have to make a move on the back end.  I expect they’ll try to move Laurent Brossoit in order to give Logan Thompson the full-time backup job, saving another $1.55MM in cap room.  That’s enough to cover the one-year/no-leverage contract for Hague with the rest going to Roy.  Ben Hutton ($850K) can be waived in a pinch and when all is said and done, that’s a team with no flexibility once again but it’d be cap-compliant.  This is the path they’ve chosen to go and I don’t think they’ll deviate from it even after a tough end to their season.

I hesitate to put the word ‘choke’ on their collapse.  Yes, it’s substantial and over the last few seasons, I can’t think of another team that prominent falling out like that.  But they were also missing a lot of players.  Yes, some of that was by design but Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone being injured wasn’t part of the plan and both of them were far from 100% down the stretch.  They basically had their regular goalie tandem either out or playing at less than 100%.  You take two top-line forwards and a goalie tandem out of a lineup and most of the time, it’s not going to end well.  The Golden Knights created some of their misfortune, no doubt, but they had a lot out of their control go against them as well which is why I can’t call it a choke job.

To be honest, I was a bit underwhelmed when Vegas brought Peter DeBoer in to replace Gerard Gallant.  He doesn’t have a long track record of playoff success but on the other hand, who out there is demonstrably better to lead a win-now, veteran-laden team?  I’d be surprised if he was let go although he’ll also be viewed as someone squarely on the hot seat heading into next season.  Again, they did have some bad luck at the end of the season from a health perspective (and were missing some key pieces throughout the year).  To drastically shake things up based on how things ended this year seems a bit premature as a result.

I do think Lehner returns next season.  The optics surrounding that whole fiasco of him being out for the season but still dressing as backup and being expected at practice was bizarre.  But where else is Vegas going to find a good starting goaltender making $5MM or less for multiple years?  It’s not as if they have a deep prospect pool or extra high draft picks at their disposal either that they could use to trade for someone that’s making a bit less.  If Thompson makes a push for more minutes next season and gets closer to a 50-50 split in terms of playing time, then perhaps at that time Lehner might become available.  But at this moment, I think he’s their starter on opening night.

wreckage: Who is the most likely offseason buyout candidate?

The first name that comes to mind is Predators defenseman Philippe Myers.  His season was nothing short of a disaster and it was telling that after he cleared waivers before the trade deadline (a scenario that seemed unfathomable in the offseason), he was sent to Toronto’s farm team instead of their own.  That’s a pretty clear sign that he’s not in their future plans.  As he’s 25, he’s only subject to a one-third payout instead of the standard two-thirds while the heavily backloaded nature of the contract makes for a rather unique situation.  A buyout of the final season that carries a $2.55MM AAV would give Nashville a cap credit of $617K next season with a cap hit of $633K the following year.  I’m not sure the Predators are the ones that buy him out – perhaps a cap-strapped team views that buyout structure and cap credit as a short-term solution – but I’d be surprised if he’s playing under his current contract next season.

Colin White (three years left, $4.75MM AAV) also quickly came to mind when I saw this question.  We know Montreal had serious trade talks for him at the trade deadline but I can’t help but wonder if it was with the intention of sending a player the other way and then turning around and buying White out in the summer.  He’s also 25 and is thus subject to the one-third cost.  Paying him over six years isn’t ideal but the cap hit for five of those is $875K while the other is a cap credit of $625K.  Whether it’s the Canadiens or someone else, is it worth moving, say, a $3.5MM player to Ottawa for White and then executing the buyout to open up $2.625MM in cap room?    There are a few teams that I suspect would give that some serious thought.

It’s rare that we see a trade and buy out combo (Steve Mason was a somewhat recent example back in 2018) but I think it’s a serious option for those two which puts them at the top of my buyout list.

As for others that could be options under the standard costs, Toronto’s Petr Mrazek (two years remaining, $3.8MM) is certainly an option after the tough year he had.  Even with 50% retention, there may not be any trade takers which could force their hand.  Zack Kassian (two years left, $3.2MM) could be an option if they need to free up money for some of their pending RFAs (more on them shortly).  I’m sure there will be others that get bought out as well once that window opens up after the season.

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Offseason Checklist: Arizona Coyotes

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t playoff-bound.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Arizona.

This season went more or less as expected for the Coyotes.  After blowing up their roster over the summer and further cementing their status as a team committed to a long-term rebuild, expectations were low heading into the year and they lived up to them, finishing last in the Western Conference.  It seems quite unlikely that their direction will change (beyond playing out of a college arena for next season) and their checklist reflects that as a result.

Add A Second Goalie

One of the bright spots this season was the unexpected emergence of Karel Vejmelka between the pipes.  Originally viewed as extra depth, he played his way onto the opening roster and things only got better from there.  That earned him a three-year contract extension at the trade deadline and secured part of their goalie tandem for the next few years.

The other half of that pairing remains a work in progress, however.  Ivan Prosvetov has struggled in his limited NHL duty, Josef Korenar had a particularly rough season in the minors, and waiver claim Harri Sateri had just a .866 SV% in his six appearances down the stretch.  Suffice it to say, the ideal partner for Vejmelka isn’t currently in the organization.

There are two routes the team can take to fill this spot.  They can look to add a veteran free agent which is what they did this year when they signed Carter Hutton although setting their sights a little higher this time around would make sense.  There are several veteran netminders available once again and adding one of those on a short-term contract would solve the issue in the short term and is a perfectly reasonable way to go.  But how attractive will the team be with the direction they’re headed and the fact they won’t be playing out of an NHL-sized facility for a while?

On the other hand, as a team that has shown a willingness to take on unwanted contracts, that has to be a route worth exploring as well.  There are some higher-priced starters out there with deals that their teams wouldn’t mind getting out of and it stands to reason that they could tack on some draft picks or prospects as compensation for taking the contract off their hands.  That could lead to some longer-term stability at the position with some extra future assets as well.

Chychrun Decision

Last summer, there was an expectation that defenseman Jakob Chychrun was going to be on the move but it never materialized.  Then, during the season, reports surfaced that he was available but that the asking price was quite high with those reports mentioning the price as at least three first-round elements or more.  He then suffered an ankle injury about a week and a half before the trade deadline which put an end to any thoughts he might be moved.

But now it’s the offseason when it’s easier to trade players with term remaining on their contracts and Chychrun has three years remaining on his deal with a $4.6MM AAV.  GM Bill Armstrong stated at the end of the season that a trade involving his top defenseman was something they were going to explore which will only further add fuel to the fire.

However, beyond the summer often yielding more flexibility in roster building, the same problems that existed during the season are still there now.  The asking price is almost certain to remain extremely high and while there was speculation that there were teams willing to meet it, the fact a trade didn’t occur means either that wasn’t the case or the price went even higher.

The other is that Chychrun isn’t exactly coming off a strong season.  Few Coyotes had good years in 2021-22 but the 24-year-old took a step back although he still managed to put up 21 points in 47 games.  There’s certainly a good enough track record to indicate that he can return to form but him getting back to that form in an Arizona uniform would strengthen their negotiating position.

As a result, their biggest decision of the summer is deciding Chychrun’s future.  Do they take the best offer they can get for him now or roll the dice and see if he can play his way into increased trade value?  At this point, a trade is probably the best move for everyone involved.

Crouse – Trade Or Re-Sign?

One Coyote who did have a strong season was winger Lawson Crouse.  The 2015 first-round pick had an increased role under head coach Andre Tourigny and responded with career highs in goals (20) and points (34) despite missing 17 games due to injury.  He also contributed physically with nearly 2.8 hits per game.  That’s a nice platform year heading into his first year of arbitration eligibility as a restricted free agent.

The 24-year-old still has two years of RFA eligibility remaining since he didn’t get to the 40-game mark in his second professional season in 2016-17 which stopped him from accruing a year towards the seven needed to reach UFA status.  A power forward in the prime of his career with a couple of years of team control remaining – that’s the definition of a key part of Arizona’s future plan…or a key trade chip.

The market rate in terms of salary for a core power forward is always quite pricey and it’s probable that Crouse’s camp will be looking at Josh Anderson’s contract (seven years, $5.5MM AAV) as a comparable in any long-term discussions.    Is that a price Arizona will want to pay?  It’s certainly steep given his track record but at the same time, he’s young enough to still be part of the core when they eventually emerge from their rebuild.

Or, should they cash in when his trade value is probably at its highest?  Is there a team out there willing to part with a high-quality prospect to get a young power forward?  There probably is.  While they’d be running the risk of moving him a little too early (another year like this one in 2022-23 would only increase his trade value), it’d ensure they’d get a solid return and an asset that might line up closer to their young core.

While Chychrun will dominate the discussion surrounding the Coyotes over the next little while, deciding what to do with Crouse is going to be a big part of Arizona’s offseason.

Keep Stockpiling

There will come a time when the Coyotes have too many picks and prospects; they’re already looking ahead to 2024’s draft class with some of their moves.  They’re not there yet though.  What do all rebuilding teams need to do?  Stockpile young assets.

Arizona is starting to run out of significant trade chips, especially if Chychrun and Crouse are moved.  However, they can still leverage their cap space.  We saw them take on undesirable contracts several times last summer and even got a quality piece in Shayne Gostisbehere who could be a trade chip closer to the 2023 trade deadline.  They’ve taken on contracts in the past for players on LTIR and recently did so with Bryan Little.  They can still afford to do that to add more picks and prospects and with there being some uncertainty about the level of attractiveness as a free agent with their arena and competitiveness situation, it certainly would help them fill out their roster for next season.

Eventually, some of their picks and prospects will need to be consolidated to help them take some steps forward.  Until then, when it comes to future assets, the more, the merrier.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Montreal Canadiens

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t playoff-bound.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  First up is a look at Montreal.

While reasonable expectations heading into this season wouldn’t have been for the Canadiens to make it back to the Stanley Cup Final, few would have had them bottoming out completely as they finished dead last in the standings.  They’ve already made significant changes including a coaching and general manager change while several trades were done in-season.  Even so, there is still plenty to be done over the summer.

Re-Sign St. Louis

One of the biggest surprises of Montreal’s season came when the team named Hall of Famer Martin St. Louis as their interim head coach to take over from Dominique Ducharme who was let go after getting just eight wins in the first 45 games of the season.  St. Louis had minimal coaching experience, primarily coaching his children so to throw someone that raw behind an NHL bench carried some risks.

While the Canadiens still struggled under their new bench boss, they were much more competitive under St. Louis, compiling a 14-19-4 record down the stretch while rookie Cole Caufield went from scoring one goal under Ducharme to being one goal off the NHL rookie lead by the end of the year.

However, since his contract was only for the rest of this season, GM Kent Hughes needs to get St. Louis signed to a new deal.  Both sides have indicated a willingness to get a deal done and speaking at the end-of-season press conference, Hughes stated a desire to get a contract that’s at least three years in place.  This seems like a formality but it’s something that will need to be completed over the next few weeks.

Get Clarity On Price’s Future

This one isn’t entirely in their hands but the playing future of Carey Price is certainly in question.  After missing most of the season due to knee trouble, he was able to play a handful of games last month but swelling continues to be an issue.  He went as far as to mention that he prepared for his last game as if it would be his last in the NHL, suggesting that if things don’t improve on that front, he may not be able to play again.

That isn’t to say that it’s a given that the 34-year-old won’t return as the veteran also suggested that another surgery is an option and that he’s certainly not giving up on playing again.  If he does, however, it’s highly unlikely he’ll be able to log the heavy minutes that have made him the most-used goaltender in franchise history.

Price still has four years remaining on his contract at a $10.5MM AAV, the highest cap hit for a goalie in NHL history.  If he’s able to keep playing with a reduced workload, his deal will be considerably overpriced and an anchor on their books.  However, if he winds up in a similar situation to Shea Weber where it’s ruled that he won’t be able to return, they will be able to place him on LTIR which would give them some extra flexibility to work with although it will also result in them having to search for a new starter unless they’re okay with Jake Allen and Samuel Montembeault for another season.

A lot of what Montreal will or won’t need to do hinges on happens with Price, both in terms of roster composition and salary cap compliance.  However, unlike many things that would typically be on the checklist for a rebuilding team, this one is pretty much out of their hands.  Price is expected to undergo further testing in the coming weeks and the Canadiens will undoubtedly be hoping to have clarity on his future by the end of the playoffs.

Find A Petry Trade

While Montreal moved some notable players in the days and weeks leading up to the trade deadline, one veteran who wound up sticking around was Jeff Petry.  The veteran defenseman had requested a trade well before the deadline and Hughes indicated they tried to find a deal that worked for both Petry and the Canadiens although clearly, they didn’t find one.

That might prove to be a blessing in disguise for the team as Petry fared much better under St. Louis than Ducharme, notching 21 points in his final 30 games of the season.  While the caveat about evaluating players based on meaningless games in the standings with no pressure certainly is valid, the fact that he was more like the player that received a four-year, $25MM contract a year and a half ago certainly can’t hurt his trade value and could help it.

Last weekend, Petry didn’t go as far as walking back his trade request but acknowledged a scenario where he could return to Montreal.  But with the team squarely committed towards a rebuild and a youth movement and the fact that the veteran is 34, a move makes sense for both sides.

While he’s coming off a down year overall, Petry is still a capable top-four defender who plays on the right side, the one that’s typically in low supply and high demand.  Among their veterans that could be candidates to go, Petry may be the one that carries the potential for their best return.  With three years left on his contract, this is a move that will be a lot easier to make this summer than it would midseason as well.  This should be fairly high on their priority list as a result.

Clear Out Contracts

By the time you factor in their bonus penalty on top of their contractual commitments for next season, the Canadiens are already over the $82.5MM Upper Limit.  Yes, Weber being LTIR-eligible again gives them a bit of wiggle room but Price’s situation being uncertain makes it difficult for them to rely on full-season LTIR relief on his deal, not to mention the challenges with trying to be compliant with the summer spending limit which is set 10% above the cap without going into offseason LTIR.

Suffice it to say, Montreal is in a spot where they’re going to need to clear out some money this summer.  Weber was speculated to be heading for Arizona at the trade deadline but they weren’t able to work out the insurance elements in time.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see those talks rekindled at some point which should allow them to keep compliant with the summer cap without needing offseason LTIR.  Petry moving would help in that regard as well.

But there are other candidates to be moved to save cap space.  Wingers Jonathan Drouin ($5.5MM) and Paul Byron ($3.4MM) will be on expiring contracts next season and could be of interest while winger Mike Hoffman ($4.5MM) has two years remaining.  None of them had particularly good years but have had success in the past that should generate a little bit of interest as long as the acquiring team is able to at least offset some of the money (by retention or by sending a player back).  Winger Joel Armia ($3.4MM) and center Christian Dvorak ($4.45MM) could also attract some interest but Armia, in particular, had a rough year and may need to build up his value first.  Brendan Gallagher (five years, $6.5MM) is unlikely to move due to his contract.

This summer, the list of players to re-sign isn’t overly high with the most notable players being RFAs Alexander Romanov and Rem Pitlick.  However, Cole Caufield is in line for a significant raise in the 2023 offseason while Allen will be unrestricted and will need to be re-signed or replaced.  Caufield’s deal, in particular, will serve as a pressure point.  Getting out of some of their commitments now would not only buy them some flexibility now but take the pressure off a year from now.  Montreal is firmly committed to a rebuild and when that happens, there’s usually an exodus of veterans on their way out.  That should be the case for them this summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Chatter: Everyone Loves An Underdog

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As we continue the 2021-22 Stanley Cup Playoffs, PHR is excited to announce a new feature aimed at encouraging discourse between reader and writer. On Friday mornings (and perhaps even more often than that), we’ll post a topic of discussion that we think will draw out varied and interesting perspectives from both our commenters and the other staff writers.

For too long there has only been a couple of outlets for our readers to interact with the PHR staff. Live chats and mailbags offer a chance at some discussion, but also run the risk of being too crowded or even outdated by the time the answer arrives. With this new feature, we’re hoping to get weekly chatter going on a topic that normally would have to be brought into the spotlight by a reader before even being discussed.

Last time, the discussion centered on “tanking” and whether it is an effective means to eventual success in the NHL. This week, let’s take a look at the eight playoff series and see if we can’t find an upset.

Only the Carolina Hurricanes and Colorado Avalanche are up 2-0 so far, meaning any of the other series could easily swing to the underdog. But which one looks most likely to produce an unexpected result? This will be a free-flowing discussion that doesn’t have a lot of guidelines, so make sure you chime in and check regularly to continue the conversation.

PHR Mailbag: Ellis, Playoffs, Fiala, Jets, Devils, Draft, Kane

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Topics in this edition of the mailbag include Ryan Ellis’ future with the Flyers, playoff discussion, Evander Kane’s grievance process, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

InFletchWeTrust: Rumors flying around that Ryan Ellis may not want to be in Philly, and that is the reason for the yet-to-be-released nature of the injury that has kept him out all year…if true, sure seems like it just blows up Fletcher’s retooling plan…could we possibly be looking at a season even worse than this one? Who’s gonna take Ellis’ salary on, especially after a four-game season?

I don’t think there’s much to those reports.  Yesterday, Ellis told reporters, including Olivia Reiner of the Philadelphia Inquirer, that it took visits to several specialists and a wide range of testing before they were finally able to identify the root cause of the injury – a multi-layered one in his pelvic region.  Perhaps the reason that it took so long to identify the injury wasn’t because he wanted out and was being difficult but rather that the injury took a long time to identify?  That makes a lot more sense to me.

Ellis, who also clearly stated his desire to remain in Philadelphia in that same press conference, has been around long enough to recognize that missing 78 games due to injury in a season more or less tanks that person’s trade value.  Even if he wanted out, he’d be smart enough to know that a trade request coming from his situation would almost certainly fall on deaf ears.  It doesn’t matter who could take his salary on – he’s not going anywhere.  He wouldn’t have solved all of the issues for the Flyers this season but a full year from him would really make that back end a lot better.

Nha Trang: Alright, here’s one: what team’s going to be the surprise club that makes an unexpectedly deep postseason run?

My first thought is whoever comes out of the Minnesota-St. Louis series.  Both of those teams are good enough to give Colorado a good run for their money in the second round.  The Avs could get Nashville without Juuse Saros which could be a quick series, giving them a long layoff and with the intensity I expect we’ll see between the Blues and Wild, that could hurt Colorado early in a potential series as they adapt after what could be an easier series against the Predators.  If that’s enough to see Minnesota or St. Louis move on, they’d be going deeper than many expect.

I can’t think of a great option from the East to pick as I don’t really see any big upsets happening in the first round.  If Boston can get by Carolina (which could happen with the Hurricanes dealing with goalie issues of their own), they’d have a good shot at getting out of that side of the bracket which would surprise many but I don’t think we’ll be overly shocked at the results in that conference in the next couple of weeks.

urban shocker: Alternatively, which team is overrated and will fold like a cheap suit?

I’m hesitant to call a team overrated as it’s a good accomplishment to make it to the playoffs.  But if you’re asking me for a team that could be a quick out, Dallas comes to mind.  Teams with a negative goal differential typically don’t fare well in the postseason (although there have been some exceptions) but I don’t think their goaltending is good enough to shut down Calgary’s attack while Jacob Markstrom and Calgary’s back end are quite strong.

In terms of a perceived contender that could go early, Tampa Bay comes to mind.  Yes, they’re the reigning back-to-back champions but that’s actually a main reason why I’m a little leery about them.  They’ve played a ton of games the last two years, playing well into the summer.  We saw this season that the other teams that played deep into the playoffs last year get decimated by injuries (Vegas and Montreal, in particular) and I can’t help but think the Lightning could get caught by that at some point.  Maybe it’s not in the first round but I wouldn’t be surprised if they go out earlier than expected.  Carolina could be in trouble depending on their goaltending situation as well.

W H Twittle: Injuries are a big part of the playoffs. Which teams are less likely to go into a tailspin if one of their top d-men gets injured and which teams are most vulnerable?

As Montreal showed last year, teams can overcome iffy defensive depth (their bottom two defenders hardly played) as long as they have a strong top four.  For me, that means the teams that have strong third pairings with players that can move up are the ones that shouldn’t be hindered as much in that scenario although losing a top rearguard would be problematic for everyone.

In terms of teams that have the strong defensive depth to potentially overcome a top player going down, Colorado comes to mind.  Assuming he stays healthy, Bowen Byram is capable of moving into the top four and their depth defenders (Jack Johnson and Ryan Murray, when healthy) can be counted on.  Boston’s depth is pretty strong as well and while Carolina isn’t as deep, they have five top-four defenders on their roster that would help mitigate the loss.

On the other hand, Nashville’s back end certainly isn’t as deep as it once was and losing one of their better options would be quite costly, especially if it’s coupled with Saros’ uncertainty in goal.  The Kings have already been dealt a tough blow with Drew Doughty’s absence and another core blueliner going down would be quite costly.  In the East, the Rangers look a little vulnerable on that front; I was a bit surprised they didn’t do more on the back end at the deadline beyond adding Justin Braun.  Washington couldn’t afford any upgrades at the deadline but their defense corps would greatly be thinned out with a key player going down as well.

Johnny Z: Is there a chance that Kevin Fiala signs an Offer Sheet? 16 teams could do a 5 x $8M.

You’re correct in that there are that many teams that have the draft picks to do that type of offer sheet but of those, how many have the cap space to do it?  Of those that do, how many are rebuilding and couldn’t really justify parting with three draft picks (a first, second, and a third) to bring Fiala in?  Now we’re dealing with a pretty small list.

Is it possible that he signs an offer sheet?  In theory, sure.  Minnesota’s vulnerable with their cap situation for next season and those are the teams to try to take advantage of.  But I don’t think he’s really a viable candidate for a couple of reasons.

First, I don’t think his situation gets to the point where an offer sheet is an option.  Either he’s traded before the start of free agency or the Wild have opened up the cap space to keep him by moving someone else so I’m not sure he gets to the point where a team could even offer him one.  But for the sake of discussion, let’s say it gets that far.  I think Fiala would be more inclined to file for arbitration and take himself out of the offer sheet picture, get a one-year deal with a big raise, and hit unrestricted free agency in his prime.  There should be more interest in him as a UFA than as an RFA through an offer sheet so why not wait for a stronger market?  An offer sheet could happen but I don’t think Minnesota should be concerned about the possibility.

selanne 76: Assuming that the Jets clean house from a coaching perspective, who comes in as Head Coach to shake up and demand accountability from this leadership group? Will it even be the same leadership group?

Assuming Dave Lowry isn’t back behind the bench next season, this will be one of the biggest decisions of GM Kevin Cheveldayoff’s tenure.  This is a team that’s built to win now, not a few years from now.  For me, that’s a strike against most of the first-time head coaching candidates; they need someone who is going to get under their skin quickly and whip them into shape.  A few years from now, the act will wear thin and that will coincide with a likely rebuild.

Writing those sentences out, John Tortorella immediately comes to mind.  He gets buy-in from his teams quickly and isn’t going to put up with the varying levels of effort that plagued the Jets this season.  They need that but I don’t think he’s necessarily the right fit to unlock the offensive potential this group has.  If Vancouver doesn’t get something done with Bruce Boudreau, I like that fit.  Jim Montgomery is someone that’s in between those two.  He has some experience and success running an NHL bench in Dallas, albeit playing low-event hockey that may not be the best for Winnipeg.  But I think he can fix some of the defensive concerns they have and be a fresh voice that this team would certainly benefit from.  I think he’d be a good fit overall for them so I’ll pick him.

I think it will largely be the same core group in place although Mark Scheifele’s comments to reporters, including Sportsnet’s Ken Wiebe postgame today certainly raise some eyebrows.  Cheveldayoff is known to be one of the safer general managers out there and assuming they do bring in a new voice (which could turn into several if there are changes on the bench as well), he may be inclined to think that will be the spark they need.  I lean that way myself, actually.  Winnipeg has a pretty strong core group in place.  A fresh voice and some depth improvement may very well be enough to get them back into the playoff picture next season.

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Looking At Phil Kessel’s Impending Free Agency

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Earlier in the week, PHR’s own Ethan Hetu covered the situation surrounding the pending free agency of Carolina Hurricanes forwards Vincent Trocheck and Max Domi. Now, however, we pivot to the Western Conference, turning the magnifying glass on Arizona Coyotes veteran (and two-time Stanley Cup champion) Phil Kessel. Arizona opting to not move Kessel for a return at this year’s Trade Deadline surprised many. The NHL’s now-resident iron man has a respectable 52 points in 81 games this year on a Coyotes team that’s put up just 202 goals on the season, the worst such number in the NHL, and that wasn’t due to a crazy post-deadline bump in production. Now, after the eight-year contract extension he signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2013 expires this offseason, the 34-year-old could hit the open market for the first time in his NHL career.

The bottom line remains that the Coyotes need NHL forwards next season. While their situation for 2022-23 has improved slightly after the acquisitions of young forwards Jack McBain and Nathan Smith, it’s unlikely that both of them (especially McBain) are ready for full-time NHL roles as soon as this fall. With the team surely a no-go destination for most of the NHL’s free-agent pool due to their arena situation, it’s not too far out of left field to assume Arizona’s choice not to move Kessel was influenced by the team’s desire to extend the veteran before he hits the open market.

If Kessel decides though, as he very well could, to join a team with more hype for 2022-23, the market for him should and will likely be there. While Kessel does just have eight goals on the year, his disastrous 4.7 shooting percentage (the lowest figure of his career) offers a compelling explanation for that. He’s not a factor defensively and hasn’t been for a few seasons now, but he remains a skilled and intelligent play-driver as evidenced by his 44 assists on the year. The fact that he’s having his best offensive season in Arizona in the year where he’s had the least talent surrounding him is sure to convince multiple general managers that Kessel still has it in him as a middle-six winger.

One near-perfect past comparable to Kessel’s situation is that of Corey Perry. Bought out a few years ago by the Anaheim Ducks, Perry signed a one-year, $1.5MM contract in Dallas after a career-worst season in Anaheim. He’s managed to continue performing as an extremely valuable depth piece on successful teams, helping provide secondary scoring. Kessel likely fits right into this mold, and could see a similar one- or two-year deal signed this offseason, albeit likely with a higher price tag. Perry had just 10 points the prior season, with Kessel outproducing that by about five times.

While there are multiple younger, flashier options on the market this offseason, they’re also a lot more expensive than Kessel would be. A short-term deal limits the negative implications of the contract if Kessel does enter a steep decline, and his Stanley Cup pedigree is obviously attractive around the league. A cap hit in the $4MM neighborhood seems likely for Kessel on a one- or two-year deal, though it could of course be lower if he opts to take a discount to join a cap-strapped contender. Arizona would likely need to offer more than that number to retain his services if they wish.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Looking At Max Domi’s Impending Free Agency

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After taking a look at the upcoming free agency situation of Vincent Trocheck, we now pivot to looking at the future of his Hurricanes teammate, Max Domi. Tonight Domi hit an important milestone in his career: 500 NHL games played. Domi is famously the son of enforcer Tie Domi, who spent the majority of his career with just one team: the Toronto Maple Leafs. The stability that Tie Domi found once he established himself in Toronto is not something Max has managed in his career, and as a pending unrestricted free agent, the second Domi looks set to potentially land on the fifth NHL team of his career despite being just 27 years old.

As we previously mentioned when going over the situation of Trocheck, the Hurricanes already have significant cap dollars tied to their forward corps, (and more specifically their top three centers) and have important extensions to consider down the line. As a result, it is likely that Domi, who arrived in Carolina as part of a buzzer-beating deadline-day trade, is a pure rental for the team. So the former London Knights star looks primed to hit the unrestricted free-agent market for the first time in his career.

But what should his market look like? Domi is a bit of an enigmatic player. He is very talented offensively, having produced at an elite level once before (when he had 72 points for the Montreal Canadiens in the 2018-19 season) and having the overall skill level to appear on highlight reels. Additionally, Domi plays with a level of energy and enthusiasm that one would expect from the son of Tie Domi, and he plays a style that allows him to quickly endear himself to fans. Although coaches have mostly preferred to keep him on the wing, Domi also has experience playing center, which adds to his value. But with those positives comes a sometimes maddening level of inconsistency, as well as a shaky defensive game. Domi butted heads with coach John Tortorella in Columbus, and near the end of his tenure in Montreal, he found himself relegated to fourth-line center duty. So despite his intriguing package of skills and desirable work ethic, Domi’s overall offering as a free agent is more mixed than it may initially seem.

All of those factors make assessing what Domi could cost on the open market a challenging prospect. With many players, there are typically some generally accurate comparable players to use as a benchmark for estimating what kind of contract a player can command in free agency. But with Domi, are there many comparables that make sense for his situation? One tool we have to assess how Domi is viewed leaguewide is his trade value. It’s not perfect, as there are a whole host of factors that go into an in-season trade that are not present in the summer, but it can paint a somewhat accurate picture. 

Domi’s trade was a complicated three-way deal that involved a “cap broker” and multiple assets being swapped just to account for the financial aspects of the deal. But in the end, the Blue Jackets, the team trading Domi, got just one asset in return for him, the rights to prospect defenseman Aidan Hreschuk, a 19-year-old playing for Boston College. Hreschuk was a third-round pick in 2021 and had 8 points in 37 games in this NCAA season. If that return is any indication, Domi’s value has declined sharply since a few years ago, when he was the main return in Columbus’ Josh Anderson trade and earned a contract worth over $5MM AAV.

This offseason’s market for offensive skill players is one that theoretically offers teams many options, with elite scorers such as Johnny Gaudreau, Filip Forsberg, and Nazem Kadri as the headliners, meaning Domi may not be the beneficiary of a bidding war caused by an imbalance between the supply and demand of scoring talent on the market. That means that Domi may not reach the $5.3MM AAV mark he is currently earning if he wants a long-term contract. But if Domi wants a shorter-term deal, one where he can prioritize role and fit in order to re-enter the market on the back of a better platform year, that would likely make him a desirable player for many cap-strapped teams. Domi’s 2018-19 season showed that he can score at a high level in the NHL, but he hasn’t come close to that since. His decision this offseason regarding where he wants to sign as a first-time UFA could determine if he reaches those heights again.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Looking At Vincent Trocheck’s Impending Free Agency

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The Carolina Hurricanes have been one of the NHL’s best teams over the past several seasons, and a major reason for that success has been their depth down the middle. The team has Sebastian Aho, one of the best centers in hockey, and Jordan Staal, who is in his tenth season with the club. In addition to those two, the team has had Vincent Trocheck since a February 2020 trade with Florida, but they may not have him for much longer. Trocheck, 28, is set to be an unrestricted free agent for the first time in his career, as the six-year, $4.75MM AAV contract he signed as a 23-year-old Panther is set to expire at the end of this season. With the Hurricanes having extended offseason addition Jesperi Kotkaniemi, getting him under contract until 2029-30 at $4.82MM against the cap, it looks as though Trocheck may be forced to join the third team of his career if he wants to maximize his earnings this summer.

That is not his preference, though. In an interview with Matt Larkin of Daily Faceoff, Trocheck reiterated his desire to stay in Carolina, saying:

That’s still the goal, to be here. I love being a Hurricane and having a chance to win every year is where you want to be. So hopefully we can figure something out.

As previously mentioned, though, staying in Carolina may not make financial sense for both the team and the player. The team has committed nearly $20MM for next season to the trio of Staal, Aho, and Kotkaniemi, and with other significant contracts on the books already, things are getting tight. Additionally, Vezina Trophy hopeful Frederik Andersen will need an extension after next season, meaning with all that in mind, Trocheck may be the player who becomes the odd man out this summer.

It may even be probable. With the extension to Tomas Hertl, the offseason’s center market is looking a bit thin. Beyond breakout Avalanche star Nazem Kadri, there aren’t many players available on this summer’s market who can play center and have a scoring pedigree. It is expected that franchise icons Evgeni Malkin and Patrice Bergeron will re-up with the only NHL clubs they have ever known, and Florida’s Claude Giroux has been more of a winger than a center in recent years. That leaves Trocheck and the Rangers’ Ryan Strome as the only two centers set to hit the market this offseason who have even crossed the 35-point mark in 2021-22, meaning the market for Trocheck this summer should be very player-friendly.

Trocheck has had a nice season in Carolina, with 20 goals and 48 points in 79 games. This is Trocheck’s fourth season where he has reached the 20-goal plateau, and he potted 17 in only 47 games last season. Trocheck also has flashed even higher levels of offensive upside, as he hit 31 goals and 75 points in the 2017-18 season with the Panthers. In addition to his offense, Trocheck has a decently well-rounded defensive game, and he ranks third among Hurricanes forwards in shorthanded time-on-ice per game. So, in short, Trocheck is a two-way center that can help a team defensively and add 20 goals and 50 points as a baseline level of offensive production. Players like that get paid on the open market, and with the aforementioned dearth of quality centers in this offseason’s free-agent class, Trocheck is lined up to get a major contract.

So even if his preference is to remain in Carolina, money is typically the ultimate deciding factor for most players, (and rightfully so) meaning Trocheck’s time as a Hurricane is likely coming to an end. But that leaves a question to be considered: with comparable centers like Kevin Hayes crossing the $7MM AAV threshold in their long-term free-agent contracts, is $7MM+ per year on a long-term contract an appropriate price to pay for a player like Trocheck, someone who is an accomplished all-around center but far from a superstar?

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

PHR Mailbag: Trophy Predictions, Kraken, UFAs, Kadri, Kings, Projections, Draft, Blue Jackets, Red Wings, Blues

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include early award predictions, an assessment of Nazem Kadri’s pending free agency, surplus depth for the Kings, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back for it in last weekend’s mailbag.

NHATrang: How about some predictions for the major trophies: Hart, Norris, Vezina, Selke?

Hart Trophy – Auston Matthews (Toronto) – With there being several quality candidates, a strong finish could give someone the boost to get the award.  Right now, Matthews is having quite the strong finish to his season and has a good chance at hitting 60 goals.  That should make him the front-runner.

Norris Trophy – Roman Josi (Nashville) – There’s a very good case to make for Colorado’s Cale Makar but Josi has the better offensive numbers and whether we like it or not, that will stand out to some voters.  I think what also will help Josi is that the Predators weren’t expected to be a playoff threat while the Avs have been viewed as contenders all season.  Josi helping lead Nashville into the thick of the playoff race will carry some weight.

Vezina Trophy – Igor Shesterkin (NY Rangers) – He’s first in the NHL in save percentage (.935) and second in goals against average (2.10) and while he hasn’t had quite as high of a workload as some other starters, he has played enough that it won’t be held against him.  It’s his to lose down the stretch.

Selke Trophy – Patrice Bergeron (Boston) – He still is elite at faceoffs, his possession numbers are elite, he kills penalties, and still contributes at a top-line level.  He hasn’t won in four years but has been a finalist each time and there’s no reason to think he won’t be in the mix.  If some writers think this could be his final year as some have speculated, that could garner him a few first-place votes as well from those who may want to send him off on top.

Tim Wilson: Much has been made of the poor performance of Seattle’s goaltending tandem in their first season. I’m wondering how the Kraken’s team defensive stats such as shots allowed compare to Grubauer and Driedger’s 20/21 teams, Colorado and Florida.

Seattle is only allowing 29.1 shots per game this season, the fourth-fewest in the entire league and second-fewest in the Western Conference.  They’re trying to play a defensively responsible style knowing that they don’t have the firepower to win and have done a decent job at doing so.  For comparison, Colorado last year was tops in the league at just 25.4 while Florida was in the middle of the pack at 30.0.

A lot of their struggles simply stem from poor goaltending.  Philipp Grubauer is dead last among qualifying goaltenders at -29.9 goals saved above expected, per Moneypuck.  That’s just in 50 games too, or 0.6 extra per game on average than he should be allowing.  How many more wins would Seattle have if he was strictly middle of the pack hovering around the zero mark in that stat?  They wouldn’t be a playoff team but they wouldn’t be battling for the top draft lottery odds either.  Chris Driedger has done better at -1.1 goals saved above expected so he’s basically average on that front.

If you’re looking for some reason for optimism, Grubauer has been a good goalie for a while now and it’s not as if he somehow forgot how to play the position upon signing with Seattle.  I’m confident he’ll be a lot better next season.  Probably not enough to get them into the playoffs – they have a long way to go before that happens – but their goaltending shouldn’t be anywhere near this level in 2022-23.

Y2KAK: Early top FA predictions please!!!

This is a tough one to answer right now in that the season isn’t over yet so there’s still the potential for some fluctuation in players’ values.  Personally, I don’t dig in too much into the UFA group in terms of fits and potential contracts until we start working on our annual Top 50 UFA post which is still more than two months away.  But here’s a very quick overview of some of the bigger names.

Johnny Gaudreau – Re-signs in Calgary.  Matthew Tkachuk’s pending RFA contract will definitely make this a tough squeeze but there’s a way to make it work if they go with a lot of minimum-salary players to round out the roster.

Nazem Kadri – I’ll look at him in more detail shortly but I don’t see him staying with Colorado.

Filip Forsberg – Re-signs with Nashville.  There’s mutual interest in getting a deal done and while it’s going to contain elements the Predators don’t like (signing bonuses and trade protection), they won’t let that ultimately nix a new contract.

Penguins – Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang re-sign, Bryan Rust moves on.  Malkin winds up a little lower than his current AAV while Letang is a bit higher.  If they could find a way to move Jason Zucker without taking salary back, they might be able to take a late run at Rust as well.

Patrice Bergeron – Re-signs with Boston.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they go year-to-year from here on out, allowing for some creativity in terms of salary and performance bonus structure.

Claude Giroux – He’s not re-signing with Florida, that’s pretty much a given.  There seems to be a bit of smoke with his hometown Senators and that would make a lot of sense as that team needs an impact veteran to really round out their improving forward group.

John Klingberg – I wouldn’t be shocked if Dallas eventually worked out a deal with him but for now, I’ll say he moves on.  If Detroit is ready to flip the switch and go for it, I think they’ll be seriously in the mix at least.

Ville Husso – I pegged him to New Jersey in a hypothetical scenario in last weekend’s mailbag so I’ll stick with them.

M34: What are Kadri’s next contract terms and which team gives it to him?

Boy, did Kadri ever pick a good time for a career year.  He sits 13th in league scoring heading into today’s action and, perhaps more notably, sixth above centers.  What better way to argue that he’s capable of being a top pivot than by being among the top-scoring middlemen in the league.

That said, I don’t he’s going to be able to command the type of deal that a top-producing center typically would.  He’ll be 32 when next season starts so there will be concern about a drop-off occurring sooner than later.  His previous career high in points is 61 so it’s not as if there’s a track record of him scoring like this.  Plus, there’s his lengthy suspension history – six in total.  At this point, the suspensions are getting more severe each time to the point where his next one could be in the double-digits.  That will make some teams hesitant.

In spite of all that, he’s heading for a nice contract.  His maximum term, assuming it’s not Colorado that re-signs him, is seven years and while teams may not want to sign him for that long, that final year or two could be used to smooth out the AAV a little bit.  So I’ll say he gets the max-term with a seven-year deal with an AAV around $8MM.  I don’t think he’ll be worth that contract in the end but he plays a premium position which will help to mitigate some of the aforementioned concerns.

W H Twittle: What can the L.A. Kings be expected to do with their prospects who are mostly RDs or Cs? Cs can be moved to the wings if they can score. But moving defensemen to their wrong side is seldom a good move. Do they start looking to trade a few prospects this summer or before the draft for the players they feel will help them next year?

While it isn’t ideal to have defensemen on their wrong side, it’s quite common.  Most NHL teams have at least one blueliner on his off-side in each game.  It’s usually a lefty on the right but it’s not implausible that a righty can go on the left if need be.  I’m also not convinced it’s a logjam they need to deal with right now.  Jordan Spence could plausibly be back in the minors, leaving Drew Doughty, Matt Roy, and Sean Durzi as the three that break camp.  It’s not a situation that necessarily has to be dealt with in the near future.

As for their center situation, I agree that some can move to the wing but that is a short-term solution.  Potential impact centers are always in high demand but the Kings could run the risk of devaluing them if they stay on the wing for too long.  If they’re shifting towards win-now mode, yes, moving some of that surplus could make sense.  The question is who to move.  They probably don’t want to move Alex Turcotte while Gabriel Vilardi and Lias Andersson have seen their value dip; Rasmus Kupari has had a nice year in a depth role but his value isn’t sky-high.  If they think Turcotte still could be a top center a few years from now, that could make Quinton Byfield the one to watch for if they want to move a promising youngster for a shorter-term difference-maker.

The Duke: All-knowing and -seeing MB Crystal Ball, please weigh in on the following queries: 1. How do the SJS and Preds’ goaltending shake out next season and the next few years? 2. Career trajectories for Mssrs Zadina & Sandin (are either on new teams soon)? 3. And finally, what team does John Gibson suit up for next season? As always, much thanks.

1) Let’s look at San Jose first.  Obviously, they need to move a goalie this summer.  My guess is that it’s James Reimer as whoever is GM at that time will likely want to give the two younger goals (Adin Hill and Kaapo Kahkonen) a longer look.  They’re both 25 at the moment and in a perfect world, that’s their tandem for the foreseeable future.  They don’t have a top goalie prospect in their system and as they have several high-priced contracts for a while, they need to go with cheaper options.  A platoon costing somewhere between $6MM to $7MM combined would help so I expect those two will be given a chance to be longer-term options.

As for Nashville, theirs is a little easier to predict.  I don’t see anyone supplanting Juuse Saros as the starter as long as Saros is under contract which is through the 2024-25 season.  By then, Yaroslav Askarov should be NHL-ready.  They’ll need a bridge backup for a couple of years – someone like Reimer would make a lot of sense, to be honest – but there will be several of those available in free agency each year so they could just look to go year-to-year with low-cost options.

2) Filip Zadina – I have my doubts that he’ll be able to live up to his draft billing and become the top-line winger many felt he had the potential to be.  That said, he certainly has some offensive talent which will keep him in the league for a while.  I could see him being a player who hovers around 40-50 points most years (slightly higher at times) and bounces between the second and third lines.  That’s a pretty good career trajectory overall even if it’s a bit underwhelming relative to where he was picked.  As for being on a new team in the somewhat near future, I think there’s a good chance that happens.

Rasmus Sandin – I’ve talked about him in the past and I don’t see him being a high-end point-getter in the NHL.  To me, he projects as a secondary offensive threat, someone that will have a floor of 25 points every year and could creep up over 40 in a good year.  I also see no reason why Toronto would want to move him anytime soon, they need cost-controllable blueliners and he’ll be that for a little while yet, even through his first (and possibly second) trip through restricted free agency.

3) Unless Gibson wants out and makes it known, I have no reason to think it won’t be Anaheim.  If you go back and look at the trade market for good goalies, the word underwhelming comes to mind.  When was the last time an above average goalie that was signed for several more seasons was moved for a return that made you think ‘wow, that’s a really good trade’?  Certainly not lately.  If the options are either take an underwhelming return or hold onto Gibson, the latter path is the right way to go for them.

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