Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Ville Husso’s future with St. Louis, whether or not it’s time for Winnipeg to shake up their core, building up Detroit’s back end, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

@JoeBad34TD: Sabres: It’s time to move on from Mittelstadt, Miller, Eakin, and Olofsson. Miller and Eakin are vets that may get you some later picks.  Mittelstadt and Olofsson are young but not the right fit for this team’s future. Do you see a trade market for these players and at what value?

I agree with you on the assessment of Cody Eakin and Colin Miller – both are candidates to be moved for draft picks so there’s really nothing more to say about those two.

As for the two younger players, I don’t think there’s a great market for Casey Mittelstadt right now.  He has struggled since his rookie season and hasn’t been healthy all that much this year.  With two more years left on his deal at $2.5MM per, Buffalo would be selling low if they moved him.  They’re not in a position where they should be selling low so holding onto him is the smarter play from a valuation standpoint; it’s not as if his value can get much lower than it would be right now so why not hold onto him, make some moves to bolster the roster over the summer, and see how he fits in with the new-look team?  Maybe there’s a better fit and if that doesn’t happen, maybe he produces a bit more to up his trade value.

Then there’s Victor Olofsson.  I tend to agree that he’s not a great fit for Buffalo moving forward but again, they’re not exactly selling high on him either.  He has struggled this year and has just 10 goals in 49 games with a $3.25MM qualifying offer looming large this summer.  If they know that they don’t want to pay that, then it’s a case of taking what you can get now which might be a mid-round pick if the Sabres retain on the contract.  If GM Kevyn Adams is leaning towards tendering that offer though, they might have a shot at a swap of underachieving wingers in the summer.  It’s not going to be an overly exciting return, however.

Y2KAK: What are reasonable moves the Islanders make at the trade deadline?

While they won’t be able to get much for their rentals (headlined by winger Cal Clutterbuck), GM Lou Lamoriello would be wise to try to get a couple of draft picks through moving some of them.  They haven’t had more than six selections over the last three years and only have five for this summer’s draft so getting closer to a full complement of picks would be a reasonable move.

I honestly don’t expect a whole lot more from them.  This is a team that has been good enough to make some decent playoff runs lately so I think Lamoriello will look at this and feel that they could be back in the thick of things next season when they don’t have a massive road trip, get hit hard by positive COVID tests, and have a bunch of injuries.  With that in mind, I don’t know how much he really wants to change things.

One move I could see them looking into is trading Semyon Varlamov.  Ilya Sorokin is clearly their goalie of the present and while they want someone who will probably play a bit more than an average backup behind him, that player doesn’t need to cost $5MM like Varlamov does.  He’s signed for next season and with the trade market being relatively thin in terms of impact goalies available, the 33-year-old could be a candidate to be moved.  It might have to be in the summer but a deadline trade can’t be ruled out either.

bighiggy: With the emergence of Husso, do the Blues look to sign Husso so he doesn’t depart at the end of the season, and then try to trade Binnington? Or let Husso walk and hope Binnington plays better?

The Blues would like to keep Husso and in a perfect world, they find a way to keep both.  Husso is a fascinating UFA case this summer.  He’s having a great year (2.24 GAA, .928 SV% in 24 games) but he only has 41 career NHL appearances under his belt.  Is that enough to land him top dollar on the open market?  Probably not.  But could he land something similar to Alex Nedeljkovic’s deal with Detroit – two years, $3MM AAV?  That wouldn’t shock me.

Now with that estimate, can they afford to keep Husso?  I think they can.  If they opt to let David Perron walk in free agency and fill his spot with someone like Jake Neighbours who is still on his cheap entry-level deal, that might be enough of a shuffle in terms of allocating cap dollars to make it work if they go with low-cost pieces to round out the roster as they’re likely to do.  If they don’t want to do that, then I suspect Husso would walk and Binnington would enter next season as the undisputed starter as if they can’t/won’t pay Husso in the $3MM range, they’re not getting someone that can push for the starting job for less than that.  With Binnington’s struggles, it’s hard to see a viable scenario where he leaves and Husso becomes the starter.

selanne76: Should the Jets make a move to shake up their leadership group? If so, who goes where and what should be the return?

I have to admit, I really like Winnipeg’s core group.  It’s a good mix of veterans and younger players and they’re all capable of scoring.  Breaking that up is risky.  But this core has been together for a while and hasn’t gotten it done in terms of playoff success and even getting to the postseason this year is going to be tough.

Personally, I’d give them one more opportunity next season.  Andrew Copp probably won’t be back and if Paul Stastny departs as well, that gives the Jets some money to work with to reshape the bottom six.  I’d like to see their depth improved as that has been an issue this year; going with low-cost players because they make the minimum or close to it makes the cap work but puts a lot of extra pressure on that top group.

I also could see a coaching change happening.  With Paul Maurice leaving midseason, they were in a tough spot and elevating Dave Lowry to the interim role was the logical choice.  But if they miss the playoffs, it’s an opportunity to bring a new voice and system in; perhaps that gives them the spark they were missing.

If they decided to make a change to really shake it up, my guess would be that Nikolaj Ehlers would be the one to go.  It’s hard to move Mark Scheifele when they don’t have a sure-fire replacement in the system (I like Cole Perfetti as a winger more than a center from a long-term standpoint) and Pierre-Luc Dubois isn’t a true number one and might not have the trade value he did when Winnipeg got him with now two fewer years of team control.  Blake Wheeler won’t bring back much with his age and contract and Kyle Connor isn’t going anywhere.

As for what Ehlers could bring back, it’d all depend on what they’d be doing.  If they were doing a rebuild, a first-rounder and a top prospect would be the key elements of a return.  If it’s a core shakeup, it’d be another top-six winger that’s signed or at least under team control for as long as Ehlers is signed for (through 2024-25).

2012orioles: Even if the Capitals move Samsonov, what value does he bring being an RFA after the season?

Not as much as you might think at first glance.  When was the last time a goaltender was traded in a move that made anyone think ‘wow, that’s a big price to pay’?  It doesn’t happen very often and with the year he’s having, he’s probably not going to buck the trend.

I think Ilya Samsonov can be a starter in the NHL or at least a 1A part of a platoon.  He’s not going to be able to command that type of return with a save percentage that’s just above .900 though, nor is he going to be able to land the type of contract that’s commensurate with that level of a player (high-$3MM range for a 1A, considerably more for a starter) this summer.  Another one-year, prove it type of deal is probably coming.

That actually hurts Samsonov’s trade value a little bit in my eyes.  He has two years of team control left but a one-year deal this summer takes him to a spot where he can opt for arbitration next summer and head to unrestricted free agency in his prime.  The Rangers will likely be moving Alexandar Georgiev for cap reasons this summer, another pending RFA who has had similar hot and cold spells in the NHL and that also doesn’t help Washington’s cause.

When I first saw this question, the word that immediately came to mind in terms of value was underwhelming.  Regardless of whether it’s a futures-based trade or he’s moved for a veteran, any return for Samsonov (if he winds up being traded) is going to yield an underwhelming return.

Detroit_SP: How do the Red Wings address the left side of the defense? They have given up over 6 GAA in the recent stretch and it’s mostly due to left side deficiencies (Leddy, DeKeyser, etc.)

I don’t see a lot of top two D-men in FA that fit with the Red Wings timeline.

Can they swing for Chychrun without giving up Seider, Edvinsson, or Raymond? I imagine Berggren would be going the other way, as unfortunate as that would be. Combination involving him and then from Wallinder, Sebrango, McIsaac, Johannson, Mazur, picks? I’d prefer to avoid 2023 picks given the draft prowess projected.

Target a different defender with term remaining?

Let’s talk about Chychrun first.  The asking price is extremely high and Arizona has no reason to trade him for anything less than a king’s ransom at this point.  The price to be paid is going to hurt so no, a package headlined by a 2018 second-round pick in winger Jonatan Berggren isn’t going to work.  I don’t think they’d need to move Moritz Seider or Lucas Raymond but I imagine the Coyotes would be insisting on Simon Edvinsson as part of the deal and then adding pieces (including Berggren potentially) from there.

I don’t think this is the right time for them to try to fill a top-two spot on the back end.  Detroit isn’t about to jump from missing the playoffs for the sixth year in a row to a contender overnight.  GM Steve Yzerman is all about building slowly so it stands to reason that the shift towards being a playoff-bound team is going to be gradual, not dramatic.  It wouldn’t be shocking to see them give Edvinsson some NHL time next season (he’s signed with Frolunda but as he was a first-round pick, Detroit can supersede that contract).

Out of the pending free agents, Hampus Lindholm is one that would really fit well for the Red Wings if they wanted to make a big splash and while he’s not a big point-getter, he’s a legitimate top-pairing player.  That’s why Anaheim wants to re-sign him and why the trade market for rental defenders is basically at a standstill at this point.  I wouldn’t be shocked if Marc Staal returns either while another depth piece can be added as well through free agency.

Could Yzerman trade his way towards filling some of those holes?  Sure.  But why move those assets out in what will probably be a transitional year as they look to get back into the playoff picture?  Add some pieces in free agency, get a little better, assess where things stand, and then use some picks and prospects as trade currency to add when they’re more ready to go for it.  As a patient GM with both Tampa Bay and now Detroit, that’s the route I expect him to take.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag primarily focus on the upcoming trade deadline with trade scenarios and team needs being discussed.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s edition.

SpeakOfTheDevil: What do the Devils do on or before the deadline? Who do you see us bringing in/shipping out?

I don’t expect a whole lot from New Jersey.  We know they’re looking for a veteran goalie just to allow Nico Daws to go back to Utica and I expect they’ll find a way to accomplish that.  They could look to do like Montreal did with Andrew Hammond and bring in a third-string option (if Jake Allen returns in the next couple of weeks, I could see a scenario where Hammond moves again).  If Marc-Andre Fleury stays in Chicago, someone like Collin Delia makes sense as a target.  I could even see someone like Jaroslav Halak if they want someone a little more proven.  If he decides he’s open to a move and just wants to get some playing time in the hopes of landing a contract for next season, New Jersey makes sense.  They won’t make the playoffs but playing time wouldn’t be hard to come by.

I believe they’ll work to find a spot for P.K. Subban as a rental although it’s a move that likely requires double retention so that the acquiring team is only on the hook for $2.25MM.  That might net the Devils a mid-round pick.  He’s the only pending UFA who realistically has a chance to be moved.

One other player that wouldn’t surprise me if he was moved was Pavel Zacha.  He’s a pending RFA but has just one year of team control left with a qualifying offer of $3MM.  Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier are entrenched as their top two centers of the present and future.  Is there a team that still thinks he could be a second liner or a high-end third liner?  If so, maybe he gets dealt.  Since he’s younger, it’s not just playoff-bound teams that could be interested which expands the options.  As for a return, I could see a couple of different scenarios – a third liner under team control for longer than Zacha or a similar-aged defenseman.  This one doesn’t need to be a swap that brings in futures.  Beyond these, I think it’ll be a pretty quiet deadline for the Devils.

pawtucket: With Edmonton once again struggling…even if they make the playoffs, they are likely facing the Avalanche who are incredible at home and far deeper than them…will McDavid be happy being bounced in the first round? (That is if they MAKE the playoffs!).

Could he demand a trade this offseason?

Never say never, I suppose, but I don’t sense that McDavid is the type of player who is going to make that request.  I share your skepticism in terms of them being able to go far in the playoffs and Colorado certainly isn’t an ideal matchup for them.  But from a long-term perspective, I don’t think they’re that far away from really contending either.  They need a legitimate starting goalie and if they can get one, they can do some damage.  McDavid knows that.

What could happen that may be more realistic is that McDavid goes to GM Ken Holland and states his preference to see a core shakeup that sees a higher-priced player moved out in order to acquire that goaltender.  That type of discussion would happen entirely behind the scenes and might not even leak out publicly.  That’s more in line with the more reserved type of player that McDavid is over flat out requesting a trade if things don’t go well this year.

rdiddy75: What would a trade with Giroux going to the Avalanche look like? Any chance the Flyers can get Barron and Behrens in that deal? That would help their blue line for years.

@IWTFWC: Chances that Avalanche acquire Claude Giroux and if so, what will it cost? (1st rd pick, Tyson Jost and Justin Barron?) Also, chances Avalanche acquire Cal Clutterbuck? Or someone else to help the PK/GET PHYSICAL?

Giroux to Colorado has been out there as a speculative destination for a while and at this point, it certainly sounds like they’re a contender (if not the contender) for his services.  I’ve mentioned in the last mailbag that my expected price point for him was a first-round pick, a prospect, and salary filler with the Flyers retaining half of Giroux’s $8.275MM AAV.

I think we have the foundation of what a deal would look like from these questions – the first-rounder (which will need to be 2023 as 2022’s is already gone) and defensive prospect Justin Barron.  (I don’t think Sean Behrens will be in there unless the formula changes to two prospects plus a roster player.)  I like the idea of Jost in principle as a younger player that could benefit from a change of scenery.  Part of me wonders if they’d prefer to move J.T. Compher instead who’s a little better but costs $1.5MM more against the cap this season and next.  That would give them some extra wiggle room to add a secondary piece now and more space for next year.

Colorado has scouted the Islanders lately and they could benefit from a physical winger for the playoffs.  I’m just not certain that Clutterbuck is the right fit for them.  They play an up-tempo style and Clutterbuck is not an up-tempo player.  I know things slow down in the playoffs and maybe he could fit on the fourth line but he’s expensive for that role ($3.5MM) and if they were to add Giroux, I don’t know if they’d have enough money left to add someone at that price point, even if New York retained.  I’m not going to put odds on it but I wouldn’t be surprised if they wind up with someone that plays a similar role and is cheaper over getting Clutterbuck himself.

jdgoat: Could Cam Atkinson be on the move this deadline?

I wouldn’t count on that happening.  While it periodically happens, players with multiple years left on their contracts at big money (Atkinson has three more years at $5.875MM) don’t tend to move at the deadline.  There’s an expectation that the Flyers aren’t interested in rebuilding and will instead do another shakeup of their core.  That happened last summer and that’s when I think they’ll make those types of moves.  That’s when more teams will be willing to shake things up compared to now when buyers are simply looking to add to their rosters, not mess around with their core.

Atkinson has actually had a nice season for the Flyers with 39 points in 54 games heading into today’s game against Chicago which is good for second on the team in scoring (just one point behind Giroux).  I don’t get the sense that he’s going to be the player that moves as a result.  If they believe they’re closer to the playoffs than their record indicates, Atkinson is the type of player to keep, not move out.

Johnny Z: Where might Namestnikov be traded to and for what?

Let’s answer the second half first.  There are two options for a return that are pretty similar – a mid-round pick or a mid-round pick plus salary ballast.  Where the pick falls depends on retention (if any) and how much the player coming back in the second scenario makes.  (There’s going to be a math component involved in pretty much every trade being made, it’s just the reality of the cap situation for many contenders around the league.)

As for where he goes, there are two types of teams where I think he fits.  One is capped-out teams getting 50% retention making him an affordable upgrade on a fourth liner and the other is a team that may want to add to their roster but doesn’t want to move much of their future.  In the first group, Dallas and Washington come to mind as options.  In the second, Nashville, Los Angeles, and maybe Anaheim if they can hang around the race a little longer.

skidrowe: Rickard Rakell to the Bruins…what would it take?

First, extension talks would need to go nowhere.  Second, Anaheim would need to fall out of the playoff race enough to justify selling.  I can see a scenario where an unsigned Rakell stays, to be honest, if they’re still in the playoff picture even with GM Pat Verbeek’s recent comments.  I doubt they’d hold onto blueliners Hampus Lindholm and Josh Manson without extensions but there’s less risk of doing that with Rakell since quality wingers are easier to replace on the open market than quality defensemen.

But that’s probably not what you’re wanting to hear, you’re wanting a rough trade proposal.  Rakell is tricky in the sense that he’s probably not worth a first-round pick or an ‘A’ prospect but a second-rounder or a ‘B’ prospect alone isn’t going to cut it either.  The prospect that comes to mind is defenseman Urho Vaakanainen.  Anaheim’s back end has been weakened over the years and while the 23-year-old may not be a top-four player, he could be a quality piece on the third pairing for a while.  The Ducks haven’t had a lot of success filling those spots lately which would be appealing.

I could see Verbeek asking for a second-rounder on top of that which may be a bit high for his Boston counterpart in Don Sweeney.  However, if Anaheim agrees to take Chris Wagner’s contract ($1.35MM in the minors), maybe that helps.  That would give Boston $225K of cap relief for next season (the rest of the cap hit comes off when he’s in the minors) and clear up a contract slot.  That said, the Ducks are a budget team and might want to part with the final year of Kodie Curran’s contract ($1MM one-way) to offset part of Wagner’s deal in that scenario.  Is that a proposal that could land Rakell?  Perhaps, although I’m still leaning towards them keeping him unless things go off the rails over the next few weeks.

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The NHL trade deadline is now three weeks away, meaning the playoffs are starting to crest over the horizon. Five teams in the league have already reached the 55-game mark, and only the New York Islanders have yet to play 50. Trades have started, sort of, with Tyler Toffoli easily the biggest name dealt so far. But that won’t last long, as things are heating up all around the league as teams realize whether they’re really in the playoff hunt or just pretending at this point.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag. If you missed the last one, it was broken into two parts. In the first, our Brian La Rose examined the surging Los Angeles Kings, how the Boston Bruins might approach the trade deadline, and New Jersey’s goaltending situation moving forward. In the second, the New York Rangers’ deadline plans were discussed, along with the Philadelphia Flyers players that are pending free agents.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend and answer as many questions as possible.