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Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

at CDT | by 38 Comments

The first round is complete and many teams are facing significant questions about their future. How do you bounce back from another first-round exit? Which managers and coaches are now on the hot seat? What will happen to those deadline rentals that were unable to provide any postseason push? The offseason is right around the corner and things are starting to get exciting.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag. Last time, it was split into two parts. The first included a discussion about Ryan Ellis’ future in Philadelphia, Evander Kane’s ongoing grievance with the Sharks, and touched on a potential Kevin Fiala offer sheet. The second looked at Filip Forsberg’s pending free agency, the mess that the Golden Knights find themselves in, and some buyout candidates for this summer.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend and we will try to answer as many questions as possible.

Offseason Checklist: New Jersey Devils

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t playoff-bound plus some that were eliminated early in the playoffs.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at New Jersey.

While the Devils made a big splash last summer when they handed Dougie Hamilton the biggest UFA contract, they weren’t picked by many to contend for a playoff spot this season.  That said, not many expected them to struggle as much as they did either.  They’re a team that’s viewed as being on the rise with a good young nucleus so the focus now needs to be on strengthening their squad to get back into postseason contention which is a big part of their summer checklist.

Defensive Decisions

GM Tom Fitzgerald has a few decisions to make this summer when it comes to his back end.  For starters, Damon Severson and Ryan Graves will be entering the final year of their respective contracts next season and both will be UFA-eligible next summer.  Severson had a career year this season and was their top defender in terms of production and playing time.  That has him in line for a sizable raise on his current $4.167MM AAV.  But with Hamilton (another right-shot rearguard) locked up at $9MM per year through 2027-28, can they afford another high-priced blueliner on that side?  If a deal can’t be reached, then he becomes a trade candidate.

Graves’ situation is a little trickier.  He quietly had a career year offensively and didn’t look out of place in his first season with New Jersey.  But his track record is a lot smaller; he has just three full NHL seasons under his belt and two of those were shortened due to COVID.  He’s trending towards a raise on his $3.33MM AAV but has he shown enough to be part of their long-term plans?  If so, Fitzgerald will likely want to try to work on an extension once he’s eligible to sign one in July.

The other decision they’ll need to make pertains to P.K. Subban.  While it’s likely that he won’t be retained, how are they going to redistribute his $9MM cap hit across the roster?  They have the ability to try to swing big and add another impact blueliner or try to use some of that to cover extensions for one or both of Severson and Graves.  Alternatively, if Fitzgerald opted to reallocate the bulk of that money to his forward group, that could bolster their forward unit.  With the team being near the middle of the pack in that regard this season, a big boost up front could propel them closer to the top ten in that department.

Re-Sign Bratt

If someone was to ask who New Jersey’s top scorer was this season, it’d be understandable the first name that came to mind was either Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier, their core building blocks down the middle.  But that wouldn’t be the right answer.  No, the leading scorer was winger Jesper Bratt, a player who more than doubled his previous career-high in points while putting up 26 goals and 47 assists in 76 games.  He picked a perfect time to do so as he’s set to be a restricted free agent this summer with arbitration eligibility.  As a result, a new deal for the 23-year-old will be high on Fitzgerald’s to-do list.

It won’t be an easy task, however, when it comes to finding the right number for a contract.  Is his 73-point season a sign of things to come or an outlier considering his other four NHL seasons had point totals between 30 and 35?  Bratt’s camp will certainly argue the former while the Devils will want to hedge against the latter.  Fitzgerald has stated his intention to get Bratt signed to a long-term contract and with only two RFA years remaining, it’s going to take a big number to get the winger to lock down the prime years of his career.  He’s coming off a deal that carried a $2.75MM AAV and a long-term deal that buys out some UFA seasons will almost certainly cost double that or more.

Add A Goalie

Two years ago, the Devils thought they had the right veteran partner for Mackenzie Blackwood when they signed Corey Crawford to a two-year deal.  However, he had a last-minute change of heart, retiring before training camp.  New Jersey went down a similar path last summer, inking Jonathan Bernier to a two-year deal.  But a hip injury limited him to just ten games this season and he may not be ready to start 2022-23.  In the meantime, Blackwood’s stock has fallen considerably from a goalie on the rise to one that couldn’t crack the top 50 in the NHL in SV% among qualifying goaltenders this season.

Generally speaking, carrying three goaltenders isn’t a desirable situation.  But for the Devils, it’s basically a necessity to hedge against Bernier’s injury and Blackwood’s struggles.  Nico Daws was okay in his first taste of NHL duty but he needs to be in the minors for another season or two so they’ll need to look outside the organization for that third netminder.

The UFA market would be the easiest way to go with players like Jack Campbell and Ville Husso representing upside buys, albeit risky ones with their limited track records.  Veterans like Marc-Andre Fleury and Braden Holtby are shorter-term options if their intention is to just shore the position up for now and look for the big fix later.  (Darcy Kuemper is also available but it’s hard to see the Devils being the winner for his services.)  With where New Jersey is in terms of still emerging from its rebuild though, will they be appealing to those free agents if they’re looking to win sooner than later?

The trade market is another option although that market won’t materialize for a while.  Alexandar Georgiev should be available but is he much of an upgrade (and would the Rangers move him to their rival)?  Washington may move one of their goalies if they can land a more proven veteran but again, they come with question marks.  Others will come available over the coming months but will they be considerable upgrades?  That’s far from a guarantee.

There aren’t any truly obvious choices here for New Jersey other than the fact they’ll need to add a goalie at some point over the next couple of months.

Add Win-Now Talent

While New Jersey opted to keep Lindy Ruff behind the bench (instead opting to make a couple of changes to their assistants), it’s fair to surmise he’ll be on a short leash to start next season.  At some point, they need to go from rebuilding to pushing for a playoff spot; they’ve only made the playoffs once in the last decade.  That switch should be flipped this summer.

They have a little over $25MM in cap space this summer with Bratt’s deal being the only one that will be a high-priced contract.  While they also need to re-sign Miles Wood and Pavel Zacha, they’ll have well above $10MM to spend on the open market or in trades which puts them in a much better position than most of the league.  While it’s understandable if they want to leave themselves a bit of a cap cushion heading into the season, they should be within a few million of the Upper Limit so there is definitely room to work with.

They have the ability to outbid teams in free agency as they did for Hamilton last summer.  They can take on a bad contract for cheap in a trade that would double as an upgrade on their roster.  The options are plentiful but by the time October rolls around, Fitzgerald needs to find a way to add multiple impact veteran players if the Devils are going to have a realistic shot of trying to get into the Wild Card hunt next season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Salary figures courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Philadelphia Flyers

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t playoff-bound plus some that were eliminated early in the playoffs.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Philadelphia.

Things went off the rails early and often for the Flyers this season.  The team had high internal expectations and didn’t come close to meeting them.  Injuries hurt them considerably throughout the year, a coaching change did nothing to turn the tide, and Carter Hart put forth a second straight tough year.  Despite all that, they’re showing no signs of a rebuild so their checklist this summer may seem counterintuitive to the direction that many believe they should take.

Thread The Needle

GM Chuck Fletcher has talked about what he terms an aggressive retool.  On the surface, it appears that the intention there would be to shake up the core again, moving veterans for other veterans in the hopes that the new mix will result in better success.  They tried that last summer with the additions of Cam Atkinson and Ryan Ellis but while Atkinson had a decent season with 23 goals and 27 assists, Ellis was limited to just four games due to injury.  In the end, it didn’t really change their fortunes.

Fletcher now needs to find a way to make more of those swaps to make the team more competitive now while also not throwing away parts of his future as he did in the Rasmus Ristolainen trade.  While there will be teams open to those types of swaps since many will have salary cap challenges and will be limited to those types of trades involving impact players, finding the right combination of moves to spark the team isn’t going to be easy as the success rate around the league on those is nowhere near 100%.

Only one team scored fewer goals than the Flyers this season (Arizona) and only five allowed more goals so clearly, notable changes need to be made both up front and on the back end.  Full seasons from Sean Couturier and Ellis will help but that alone won’t be enough.  To borrow terms from other sports, Fletcher will need to thread the needle on a pretty significant sequence of moves and knock a few acquisitions out of the park.  They have their work cut out for them as a result.

Free Up Cap Space

Just when you might be thinking that the above seems pretty daunting in itself, let’s bring the salary cap into play now.  Philadelphia has less than $6MM in cap space this summer with Owen Tippett, Morgan Frost, and Zack MacEwen needing new deals up front and a replacement for Keith Yandle on the back end.  Even if that number is a little inflated with some of their end-of-season recalls, there isn’t much in the way of flexibility in terms of trying to make a splash in free agency.  Unless, of course, they can clear some money up first.

The obvious candidate on that front is James van Riemsdyk.  The 33-year-old has provided the Flyers with some decent secondary scoring in his second stint with the franchise, scoring at least 17 goals in each of his four years since returning (and that low mark came in the COVID-shortened 2020-21 campaign).  However, his effectiveness has waned as he ages and $7MM is an expensive price tag for someone who is best utilized as a middle-six winger.  It’s unlikely he’s going to turn things around next season and get back to the 30-goal mark so he’s someone that stands out as a trade candidate.  The question will be how much of an offset will be needed (either by retention or by taking a player back) or how much of an incentive they’ll need to provide to get a team to take the contract without sending any money back.  What happens with van Riemsdyk will go a long way towards determining what they can or can’t do this summer.

While they didn’t really get a chance to evaluate their full back end due to Ellis missing 78 games, it also seems likely that they will move a defender as part of their aggressive retool.  It won’t be Ellis as his value is down after missing almost the entire year and they just committed five years at $5.1MM per to Ristolainen; clearly, he’s not moving either.  That leaves Ivan Provorov ($6.75MM through 2024-25) and Travis Sanheim ($4.675MM in 2022-23, then becomes a UFA).  Provorov is coming off an underwhelming year so while moving him would save money, his trade value certainly isn’t at its best.  Sanheim is easier to move but yields less in cap savings.  But if they want to shake up the back end again, one of those two may need to be on the move as a result.

Hire A New Head Coach

After the decision to fire Alain Vigneault early in the season didn’t yield the results Fletcher was hoping for, the Flyers decided not to continue with Mike Yeo as their head coach for next season.  That puts finding a new bench boss very high on the priority list over the coming weeks.

With Philadelphia committed to trying to retool instead of rebuild, that could push them in the direction of a veteran coach over a first-timer in that role.  While long-time Flyer Rick Tocchet is viewed as a popular option, someone like Barry Trotz – who led quick turnarounds for the Capitals and Islanders – could stand out for that reason as well.  Paul Maurice is also a possible fit if he wanted to get back behind a bench so quickly after stepping away from Winnipeg.

Among the first-time head coaching options, Lane Lambert has long been speculated as a candidate but he could be promoted to the top spot for the Islanders after Trotz’s departure.  Nate Leaman is always an option to make the jump from the college ranks while Rikard Gronborg and Roger Ronnberg are international coaches that always come up at this time of year.  But again, a first-time NHL bench boss would be a bit surprising given their win-now intentions.  Regardless, it will be a crucial hire for Fletcher as with the way the last couple of seasons have gone, he may not get another one.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Salary figures courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Seattle Kraken

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t playoff-bound.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Seattle.

After the Golden Knights went to the Stanley Cup Final in their inaugural season, expectations were unrealistically high for the Kraken heading into their first year.  But even if they had the expectations of a typical expansion franchise, they still would have underachieved relative to those.  As a result, Seattle finds itself trying to build on multiple fronts this summer which is a certainly a tall task.

Find A New Goalie Coach

There was only one coaching casualty from their tough year and that was goalie coach Andrew Allen.  That move was understandable as, heading into the season, goaltending was believed to be their best strength with a tandem of Philipp Grubauer and Chris Driedger.  Instead, they had the lowest team save percentage in the NHL (.880) while sitting in the bottom ten in goals allowed despite allowing the fourth-fewest shots on goal.  Seattle will need to find a replacement coach and when it comes to their netminders, things can only go up from here.

Expand Young Core

Part of building an organization from scratch is trying to pick up some young core pieces.  They got one in the draft in Matthew Beniers and picked one in expansion in Jared McCann with the 25-year-old having a career year and quickly inking a long-term extension.  Beyond that, there isn’t that much of a young core.  That’s perfectly understandable after just one year of existence but this will be the top priority for GM Ron Francis this summer.

They’ll be able to add some key pieces at the draft.  They have the fourth pick in July’s draft plus four second-rounders that can be dangled in an effort to move up.  That should yield some nice long-term additions although most of those players will be several years away.

Back when the team was being assembled, cap flexibility was stated as a critical element of what they were doing.  This is something that the Kraken can use to their advantage this summer if they’re willing to take a bad contract or two while adding some more picks (or preferably prospects) like Arizona did last summer.  If the aim is to build a long-term contender, Seattle needs to have more than two long-term core pieces heading into next season.

Expand Current Core

Most general managers don’t lay out a road map for their planning but at his end-of-season news conference, Francis indicated a desire to add a top-six forward, a top-nine forward, and a puck-moving defenseman to his current group.  The forwards, in particular, could be added in free agency where the Kraken will have the ability to outbid most teams as they have nearly $23MM in cap room, per CapFriendly.  The UFA market for puck-moving blueliners isn’t as deep so going that route for that spot may be tougher so the trade front might be the better way for them there.

Last summer, Francis surprisingly handed a five-year contract to Jaden Schwartz in a move that didn’t work out too well with the oft-injured 29-year-old missing more than half of the season due to injuries.  That should serve as a cautionary tale for their free agent this time around when it comes to adding secondary scorers.

It wouldn’t be advisable to hand out similar long-term deals at this time to fill those roster spots.  Anything beyond a medium-term contract carries some risk of being a burden at the time that their young core will be ready to really try to contend.  A five-year deal for a 25-year-old (McCann) makes sense as he’ll still be young enough to be part of their plans and productive at the end of it.  A five-year deal for a 29-year-old UFA this summer probably won’t hold up as well.  They’d be wise to stick with shorter-term contracts that will be easier to move closer to their expiration.

Of course, that caveat doesn’t apply if they happen to entice one of the top free agents to join them.  In that case, you don’t say no to top talent and that player becomes a part of their current and future core.  But beyond that, playing it safe with the veterans they choose to add should be the path they choose to take.

Fill Out Farm Team

This season, Seattle didn’t have its own AHL affiliate which isn’t particularly unusual for an expansion franchise as they simply don’t have the organizational depth that more established teams do.  Instead, they teamed up with the Hurricanes, sharing their affiliate in Charlotte.  That allowed the Kraken to carry a pretty short group of contracts with only a handful of recallable players from the Checkers as the season went on.

That won’t be the case next season as Seattle will be operating the Coachella Valley Firebirds.  They certainly have plenty of work to do before the puck drops on their inaugural season in October.

At the moment, Seattle has basically the equivalent of one line signed for the Firebirds for next season (with three of those being on future deals that only start in 2022-23).  They also have goaltender Joey Daccord if they can get him through waivers in training camp.  In terms of on-ice personnel, that’s it.  Aside from those few players signed, they basically have to fill an entire team.  As a result, expect them to be very active in minor league free agency, both in terms of signing AHL free agents to AHL deals at the beginning of July and in handing out several NHL two-way deals when that market opens up near mid-July.

On top of that, they’ll need to round out their front office and coaching staff.  The Kraken added former NHL bench boss Dan Bylsma as an assistant with Charlotte and he’s a contender to be the coach in Palm Springs next season.  Francis will be building on multiple fronts this summer so expect a busy summer in Seattle.

PHR Mailbag: Golden Knights, Buyout Candidates, Gibson, Forsberg, Red Wings, NCAA

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the disappointing season for the Golden Knights, possible buyout candidates this summer, Filip Forsberg’s pending free agency, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

dayvisferreras: How big will the changes be in Vegas?? Vegas should be making big changes and stop creating greener pastures for shiny new toys. I appreciate Bill Foley’s vision but he shouldn’t add more salary to a team with no cap.

Gbear: Simply put, have you ever seen a team choke down the stretch as badly as Vegas did and do you see DeBoer getting fired after this season?

DirtbagBlues: Is Robin Lehner with the Golden Knights next season?

Let’s dig right in with some Vegas talk.

I don’t expect anywhere near the amount of change for next season for the Golden Knights that some do.  Part of that is the salary cap as obviously, they need to clear some money.  Evgenii Dadonov is probably going somewhere and Reilly Smith is a potential cap casualty as a pending UFA.  Mattias Janmark likely isn’t back as well.  If they can avoid taking a contract back in a Dadonov trade, that’s $5MM in savings from next year’s commitments, most of which can be allocated to the three forwards needed to fill those roster spots with a bit left over to apply to Nicolas Roy’s next contract.

Vegas can more or less force their way into a one-year deal for Nicolas Hague as the blueliner doesn’t have arbitration rights.  Accordingly, they don’t necessarily have to make a move on the back end.  I expect they’ll try to move Laurent Brossoit in order to give Logan Thompson the full-time backup job, saving another $1.55MM in cap room.  That’s enough to cover the one-year/no-leverage contract for Hague with the rest going to Roy.  Ben Hutton ($850K) can be waived in a pinch and when all is said and done, that’s a team with no flexibility once again but it’d be cap-compliant.  This is the path they’ve chosen to go and I don’t think they’ll deviate from it even after a tough end to their season.

I hesitate to put the word ‘choke’ on their collapse.  Yes, it’s substantial and over the last few seasons, I can’t think of another team that prominent falling out like that.  But they were also missing a lot of players.  Yes, some of that was by design but Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone being injured wasn’t part of the plan and both of them were far from 100% down the stretch.  They basically had their regular goalie tandem either out or playing at less than 100%.  You take two top-line forwards and a goalie tandem out of a lineup and most of the time, it’s not going to end well.  The Golden Knights created some of their misfortune, no doubt, but they had a lot out of their control go against them as well which is why I can’t call it a choke job.

To be honest, I was a bit underwhelmed when Vegas brought Peter DeBoer in to replace Gerard Gallant.  He doesn’t have a long track record of playoff success but on the other hand, who out there is demonstrably better to lead a win-now, veteran-laden team?  I’d be surprised if he was let go although he’ll also be viewed as someone squarely on the hot seat heading into next season.  Again, they did have some bad luck at the end of the season from a health perspective (and were missing some key pieces throughout the year).  To drastically shake things up based on how things ended this year seems a bit premature as a result.

I do think Lehner returns next season.  The optics surrounding that whole fiasco of him being out for the season but still dressing as backup and being expected at practice was bizarre.  But where else is Vegas going to find a good starting goaltender making $5MM or less for multiple years?  It’s not as if they have a deep prospect pool or extra high draft picks at their disposal either that they could use to trade for someone that’s making a bit less.  If Thompson makes a push for more minutes next season and gets closer to a 50-50 split in terms of playing time, then perhaps at that time Lehner might become available.  But at this moment, I think he’s their starter on opening night.

wreckage: Who is the most likely offseason buyout candidate?

The first name that comes to mind is Predators defenseman Philippe Myers.  His season was nothing short of a disaster and it was telling that after he cleared waivers before the trade deadline (a scenario that seemed unfathomable in the offseason), he was sent to Toronto’s farm team instead of their own.  That’s a pretty clear sign that he’s not in their future plans.  As he’s 25, he’s only subject to a one-third payout instead of the standard two-thirds while the heavily backloaded nature of the contract makes for a rather unique situation.  A buyout of the final season that carries a $2.55MM AAV would give Nashville a cap credit of $617K next season with a cap hit of $633K the following year.  I’m not sure the Predators are the ones that buy him out – perhaps a cap-strapped team views that buyout structure and cap credit as a short-term solution – but I’d be surprised if he’s playing under his current contract next season.

Colin White (three years left, $4.75MM AAV) also quickly came to mind when I saw this question.  We know Montreal had serious trade talks for him at the trade deadline but I can’t help but wonder if it was with the intention of sending a player the other way and then turning around and buying White out in the summer.  He’s also 25 and is thus subject to the one-third cost.  Paying him over six years isn’t ideal but the cap hit for five of those is $875K while the other is a cap credit of $625K.  Whether it’s the Canadiens or someone else, is it worth moving, say, a $3.5MM player to Ottawa for White and then executing the buyout to open up $2.625MM in cap room?    There are a few teams that I suspect would give that some serious thought.

It’s rare that we see a trade and buy out combo (Steve Mason was a somewhat recent example back in 2018) but I think it’s a serious option for those two which puts them at the top of my buyout list.

As for others that could be options under the standard costs, Toronto’s Petr Mrazek (two years remaining, $3.8MM) is certainly an option after the tough year he had.  Even with 50% retention, there may not be any trade takers which could force their hand.  Zack Kassian (two years left, $3.2MM) could be an option if they need to free up money for some of their pending RFAs (more on them shortly).  I’m sure there will be others that get bought out as well once that window opens up after the season.

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Offseason Checklist: Arizona Coyotes

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t playoff-bound.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Arizona.

This season went more or less as expected for the Coyotes.  After blowing up their roster over the summer and further cementing their status as a team committed to a long-term rebuild, expectations were low heading into the year and they lived up to them, finishing last in the Western Conference.  It seems quite unlikely that their direction will change (beyond playing out of a college arena for next season) and their checklist reflects that as a result.

Add A Second Goalie

One of the bright spots this season was the unexpected emergence of Karel Vejmelka between the pipes.  Originally viewed as extra depth, he played his way onto the opening roster and things only got better from there.  That earned him a three-year contract extension at the trade deadline and secured part of their goalie tandem for the next few years.

The other half of that pairing remains a work in progress, however.  Ivan Prosvetov has struggled in his limited NHL duty, Josef Korenar had a particularly rough season in the minors, and waiver claim Harri Sateri had just a .866 SV% in his six appearances down the stretch.  Suffice it to say, the ideal partner for Vejmelka isn’t currently in the organization.

There are two routes the team can take to fill this spot.  They can look to add a veteran free agent which is what they did this year when they signed Carter Hutton although setting their sights a little higher this time around would make sense.  There are several veteran netminders available once again and adding one of those on a short-term contract would solve the issue in the short term and is a perfectly reasonable way to go.  But how attractive will the team be with the direction they’re headed and the fact they won’t be playing out of an NHL-sized facility for a while?

On the other hand, as a team that has shown a willingness to take on unwanted contracts, that has to be a route worth exploring as well.  There are some higher-priced starters out there with deals that their teams wouldn’t mind getting out of and it stands to reason that they could tack on some draft picks or prospects as compensation for taking the contract off their hands.  That could lead to some longer-term stability at the position with some extra future assets as well.

Chychrun Decision

Last summer, there was an expectation that defenseman Jakob Chychrun was going to be on the move but it never materialized.  Then, during the season, reports surfaced that he was available but that the asking price was quite high with those reports mentioning the price as at least three first-round elements or more.  He then suffered an ankle injury about a week and a half before the trade deadline which put an end to any thoughts he might be moved.

But now it’s the offseason when it’s easier to trade players with term remaining on their contracts and Chychrun has three years remaining on his deal with a $4.6MM AAV.  GM Bill Armstrong stated at the end of the season that a trade involving his top defenseman was something they were going to explore which will only further add fuel to the fire.

However, beyond the summer often yielding more flexibility in roster building, the same problems that existed during the season are still there now.  The asking price is almost certain to remain extremely high and while there was speculation that there were teams willing to meet it, the fact a trade didn’t occur means either that wasn’t the case or the price went even higher.

The other is that Chychrun isn’t exactly coming off a strong season.  Few Coyotes had good years in 2021-22 but the 24-year-old took a step back although he still managed to put up 21 points in 47 games.  There’s certainly a good enough track record to indicate that he can return to form but him getting back to that form in an Arizona uniform would strengthen their negotiating position.

As a result, their biggest decision of the summer is deciding Chychrun’s future.  Do they take the best offer they can get for him now or roll the dice and see if he can play his way into increased trade value?  At this point, a trade is probably the best move for everyone involved.

Crouse – Trade Or Re-Sign?

One Coyote who did have a strong season was winger Lawson Crouse.  The 2015 first-round pick had an increased role under head coach Andre Tourigny and responded with career highs in goals (20) and points (34) despite missing 17 games due to injury.  He also contributed physically with nearly 2.8 hits per game.  That’s a nice platform year heading into his first year of arbitration eligibility as a restricted free agent.

The 24-year-old still has two years of RFA eligibility remaining since he didn’t get to the 40-game mark in his second professional season in 2016-17 which stopped him from accruing a year towards the seven needed to reach UFA status.  A power forward in the prime of his career with a couple of years of team control remaining – that’s the definition of a key part of Arizona’s future plan…or a key trade chip.

The market rate in terms of salary for a core power forward is always quite pricey and it’s probable that Crouse’s camp will be looking at Josh Anderson’s contract (seven years, $5.5MM AAV) as a comparable in any long-term discussions.    Is that a price Arizona will want to pay?  It’s certainly steep given his track record but at the same time, he’s young enough to still be part of the core when they eventually emerge from their rebuild.

Or, should they cash in when his trade value is probably at its highest?  Is there a team out there willing to part with a high-quality prospect to get a young power forward?  There probably is.  While they’d be running the risk of moving him a little too early (another year like this one in 2022-23 would only increase his trade value), it’d ensure they’d get a solid return and an asset that might line up closer to their young core.

While Chychrun will dominate the discussion surrounding the Coyotes over the next little while, deciding what to do with Crouse is going to be a big part of Arizona’s offseason.

Keep Stockpiling

There will come a time when the Coyotes have too many picks and prospects; they’re already looking ahead to 2024’s draft class with some of their moves.  They’re not there yet though.  What do all rebuilding teams need to do?  Stockpile young assets.

Arizona is starting to run out of significant trade chips, especially if Chychrun and Crouse are moved.  However, they can still leverage their cap space.  We saw them take on undesirable contracts several times last summer and even got a quality piece in Shayne Gostisbehere who could be a trade chip closer to the 2023 trade deadline.  They’ve taken on contracts in the past for players on LTIR and recently did so with Bryan Little.  They can still afford to do that to add more picks and prospects and with there being some uncertainty about the level of attractiveness as a free agent with their arena and competitiveness situation, it certainly would help them fill out their roster for next season.

Eventually, some of their picks and prospects will need to be consolidated to help them take some steps forward.  Until then, when it comes to future assets, the more, the merrier.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Montreal Canadiens

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t playoff-bound.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  First up is a look at Montreal.

While reasonable expectations heading into this season wouldn’t have been for the Canadiens to make it back to the Stanley Cup Final, few would have had them bottoming out completely as they finished dead last in the standings.  They’ve already made significant changes including a coaching and general manager change while several trades were done in-season.  Even so, there is still plenty to be done over the summer.

Re-Sign St. Louis

One of the biggest surprises of Montreal’s season came when the team named Hall of Famer Martin St. Louis as their interim head coach to take over from Dominique Ducharme who was let go after getting just eight wins in the first 45 games of the season.  St. Louis had minimal coaching experience, primarily coaching his children so to throw someone that raw behind an NHL bench carried some risks.

While the Canadiens still struggled under their new bench boss, they were much more competitive under St. Louis, compiling a 14-19-4 record down the stretch while rookie Cole Caufield went from scoring one goal under Ducharme to being one goal off the NHL rookie lead by the end of the year.

However, since his contract was only for the rest of this season, GM Kent Hughes needs to get St. Louis signed to a new deal.  Both sides have indicated a willingness to get a deal done and speaking at the end-of-season press conference, Hughes stated a desire to get a contract that’s at least three years in place.  This seems like a formality but it’s something that will need to be completed over the next few weeks.

Get Clarity On Price’s Future

This one isn’t entirely in their hands but the playing future of Carey Price is certainly in question.  After missing most of the season due to knee trouble, he was able to play a handful of games last month but swelling continues to be an issue.  He went as far as to mention that he prepared for his last game as if it would be his last in the NHL, suggesting that if things don’t improve on that front, he may not be able to play again.

That isn’t to say that it’s a given that the 34-year-old won’t return as the veteran also suggested that another surgery is an option and that he’s certainly not giving up on playing again.  If he does, however, it’s highly unlikely he’ll be able to log the heavy minutes that have made him the most-used goaltender in franchise history.

Price still has four years remaining on his contract at a $10.5MM AAV, the highest cap hit for a goalie in NHL history.  If he’s able to keep playing with a reduced workload, his deal will be considerably overpriced and an anchor on their books.  However, if he winds up in a similar situation to Shea Weber where it’s ruled that he won’t be able to return, they will be able to place him on LTIR which would give them some extra flexibility to work with although it will also result in them having to search for a new starter unless they’re okay with Jake Allen and Samuel Montembeault for another season.

A lot of what Montreal will or won’t need to do hinges on happens with Price, both in terms of roster composition and salary cap compliance.  However, unlike many things that would typically be on the checklist for a rebuilding team, this one is pretty much out of their hands.  Price is expected to undergo further testing in the coming weeks and the Canadiens will undoubtedly be hoping to have clarity on his future by the end of the playoffs.

Find A Petry Trade

While Montreal moved some notable players in the days and weeks leading up to the trade deadline, one veteran who wound up sticking around was Jeff Petry.  The veteran defenseman had requested a trade well before the deadline and Hughes indicated they tried to find a deal that worked for both Petry and the Canadiens although clearly, they didn’t find one.

That might prove to be a blessing in disguise for the team as Petry fared much better under St. Louis than Ducharme, notching 21 points in his final 30 games of the season.  While the caveat about evaluating players based on meaningless games in the standings with no pressure certainly is valid, the fact that he was more like the player that received a four-year, $25MM contract a year and a half ago certainly can’t hurt his trade value and could help it.

Last weekend, Petry didn’t go as far as walking back his trade request but acknowledged a scenario where he could return to Montreal.  But with the team squarely committed towards a rebuild and a youth movement and the fact that the veteran is 34, a move makes sense for both sides.

While he’s coming off a down year overall, Petry is still a capable top-four defender who plays on the right side, the one that’s typically in low supply and high demand.  Among their veterans that could be candidates to go, Petry may be the one that carries the potential for their best return.  With three years left on his contract, this is a move that will be a lot easier to make this summer than it would midseason as well.  This should be fairly high on their priority list as a result.

Clear Out Contracts

By the time you factor in their bonus penalty on top of their contractual commitments for next season, the Canadiens are already over the $82.5MM Upper Limit.  Yes, Weber being LTIR-eligible again gives them a bit of wiggle room but Price’s situation being uncertain makes it difficult for them to rely on full-season LTIR relief on his deal, not to mention the challenges with trying to be compliant with the summer spending limit which is set 10% above the cap without going into offseason LTIR.

Suffice it to say, Montreal is in a spot where they’re going to need to clear out some money this summer.  Weber was speculated to be heading for Arizona at the trade deadline but they weren’t able to work out the insurance elements in time.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see those talks rekindled at some point which should allow them to keep compliant with the summer cap without needing offseason LTIR.  Petry moving would help in that regard as well.

But there are other candidates to be moved to save cap space.  Wingers Jonathan Drouin ($5.5MM) and Paul Byron ($3.4MM) will be on expiring contracts next season and could be of interest while winger Mike Hoffman ($4.5MM) has two years remaining.  None of them had particularly good years but have had success in the past that should generate a little bit of interest as long as the acquiring team is able to at least offset some of the money (by retention or by sending a player back).  Winger Joel Armia ($3.4MM) and center Christian Dvorak ($4.45MM) could also attract some interest but Armia, in particular, had a rough year and may need to build up his value first.  Brendan Gallagher (five years, $6.5MM) is unlikely to move due to his contract.

This summer, the list of players to re-sign isn’t overly high with the most notable players being RFAs Alexander Romanov and Rem Pitlick.  However, Cole Caufield is in line for a significant raise in the 2023 offseason while Allen will be unrestricted and will need to be re-signed or replaced.  Caufield’s deal, in particular, will serve as a pressure point.  Getting out of some of their commitments now would not only buy them some flexibility now but take the pressure off a year from now.  Montreal is firmly committed to a rebuild and when that happens, there’s usually an exodus of veterans on their way out.  That should be the case for them this summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Chatter: Everyone Loves An Underdog

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As we continue the 2021-22 Stanley Cup Playoffs, PHR is excited to announce a new feature aimed at encouraging discourse between reader and writer. On Friday mornings (and perhaps even more often than that), we’ll post a topic of discussion that we think will draw out varied and interesting perspectives from both our commenters and the other staff writers.

For too long there has only been a couple of outlets for our readers to interact with the PHR staff. Live chats and mailbags offer a chance at some discussion, but also run the risk of being too crowded or even outdated by the time the answer arrives. With this new feature, we’re hoping to get weekly chatter going on a topic that normally would have to be brought into the spotlight by a reader before even being discussed.

Last time, the discussion centered on “tanking” and whether it is an effective means to eventual success in the NHL. This week, let’s take a look at the eight playoff series and see if we can’t find an upset.

Only the Carolina Hurricanes and Colorado Avalanche are up 2-0 so far, meaning any of the other series could easily swing to the underdog. But which one looks most likely to produce an unexpected result? This will be a free-flowing discussion that doesn’t have a lot of guidelines, so make sure you chime in and check regularly to continue the conversation.

PHR Mailbag: Ellis, Playoffs, Fiala, Jets, Devils, Draft, Kane

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Topics in this edition of the mailbag include Ryan Ellis’ future with the Flyers, playoff discussion, Evander Kane’s grievance process, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

InFletchWeTrust: Rumors flying around that Ryan Ellis may not want to be in Philly, and that is the reason for the yet-to-be-released nature of the injury that has kept him out all year…if true, sure seems like it just blows up Fletcher’s retooling plan…could we possibly be looking at a season even worse than this one? Who’s gonna take Ellis’ salary on, especially after a four-game season?

I don’t think there’s much to those reports.  Yesterday, Ellis told reporters, including Olivia Reiner of the Philadelphia Inquirer, that it took visits to several specialists and a wide range of testing before they were finally able to identify the root cause of the injury – a multi-layered one in his pelvic region.  Perhaps the reason that it took so long to identify the injury wasn’t because he wanted out and was being difficult but rather that the injury took a long time to identify?  That makes a lot more sense to me.

Ellis, who also clearly stated his desire to remain in Philadelphia in that same press conference, has been around long enough to recognize that missing 78 games due to injury in a season more or less tanks that person’s trade value.  Even if he wanted out, he’d be smart enough to know that a trade request coming from his situation would almost certainly fall on deaf ears.  It doesn’t matter who could take his salary on – he’s not going anywhere.  He wouldn’t have solved all of the issues for the Flyers this season but a full year from him would really make that back end a lot better.

Nha Trang: Alright, here’s one: what team’s going to be the surprise club that makes an unexpectedly deep postseason run?

My first thought is whoever comes out of the Minnesota-St. Louis series.  Both of those teams are good enough to give Colorado a good run for their money in the second round.  The Avs could get Nashville without Juuse Saros which could be a quick series, giving them a long layoff and with the intensity I expect we’ll see between the Blues and Wild, that could hurt Colorado early in a potential series as they adapt after what could be an easier series against the Predators.  If that’s enough to see Minnesota or St. Louis move on, they’d be going deeper than many expect.

I can’t think of a great option from the East to pick as I don’t really see any big upsets happening in the first round.  If Boston can get by Carolina (which could happen with the Hurricanes dealing with goalie issues of their own), they’d have a good shot at getting out of that side of the bracket which would surprise many but I don’t think we’ll be overly shocked at the results in that conference in the next couple of weeks.

urban shocker: Alternatively, which team is overrated and will fold like a cheap suit?

I’m hesitant to call a team overrated as it’s a good accomplishment to make it to the playoffs.  But if you’re asking me for a team that could be a quick out, Dallas comes to mind.  Teams with a negative goal differential typically don’t fare well in the postseason (although there have been some exceptions) but I don’t think their goaltending is good enough to shut down Calgary’s attack while Jacob Markstrom and Calgary’s back end are quite strong.

In terms of a perceived contender that could go early, Tampa Bay comes to mind.  Yes, they’re the reigning back-to-back champions but that’s actually a main reason why I’m a little leery about them.  They’ve played a ton of games the last two years, playing well into the summer.  We saw this season that the other teams that played deep into the playoffs last year get decimated by injuries (Vegas and Montreal, in particular) and I can’t help but think the Lightning could get caught by that at some point.  Maybe it’s not in the first round but I wouldn’t be surprised if they go out earlier than expected.  Carolina could be in trouble depending on their goaltending situation as well.

W H Twittle: Injuries are a big part of the playoffs. Which teams are less likely to go into a tailspin if one of their top d-men gets injured and which teams are most vulnerable?

As Montreal showed last year, teams can overcome iffy defensive depth (their bottom two defenders hardly played) as long as they have a strong top four.  For me, that means the teams that have strong third pairings with players that can move up are the ones that shouldn’t be hindered as much in that scenario although losing a top rearguard would be problematic for everyone.

In terms of teams that have the strong defensive depth to potentially overcome a top player going down, Colorado comes to mind.  Assuming he stays healthy, Bowen Byram is capable of moving into the top four and their depth defenders (Jack Johnson and Ryan Murray, when healthy) can be counted on.  Boston’s depth is pretty strong as well and while Carolina isn’t as deep, they have five top-four defenders on their roster that would help mitigate the loss.

On the other hand, Nashville’s back end certainly isn’t as deep as it once was and losing one of their better options would be quite costly, especially if it’s coupled with Saros’ uncertainty in goal.  The Kings have already been dealt a tough blow with Drew Doughty’s absence and another core blueliner going down would be quite costly.  In the East, the Rangers look a little vulnerable on that front; I was a bit surprised they didn’t do more on the back end at the deadline beyond adding Justin Braun.  Washington couldn’t afford any upgrades at the deadline but their defense corps would greatly be thinned out with a key player going down as well.

Johnny Z: Is there a chance that Kevin Fiala signs an Offer Sheet? 16 teams could do a 5 x $8M.

You’re correct in that there are that many teams that have the draft picks to do that type of offer sheet but of those, how many have the cap space to do it?  Of those that do, how many are rebuilding and couldn’t really justify parting with three draft picks (a first, second, and a third) to bring Fiala in?  Now we’re dealing with a pretty small list.

Is it possible that he signs an offer sheet?  In theory, sure.  Minnesota’s vulnerable with their cap situation for next season and those are the teams to try to take advantage of.  But I don’t think he’s really a viable candidate for a couple of reasons.

First, I don’t think his situation gets to the point where an offer sheet is an option.  Either he’s traded before the start of free agency or the Wild have opened up the cap space to keep him by moving someone else so I’m not sure he gets to the point where a team could even offer him one.  But for the sake of discussion, let’s say it gets that far.  I think Fiala would be more inclined to file for arbitration and take himself out of the offer sheet picture, get a one-year deal with a big raise, and hit unrestricted free agency in his prime.  There should be more interest in him as a UFA than as an RFA through an offer sheet so why not wait for a stronger market?  An offer sheet could happen but I don’t think Minnesota should be concerned about the possibility.

selanne 76: Assuming that the Jets clean house from a coaching perspective, who comes in as Head Coach to shake up and demand accountability from this leadership group? Will it even be the same leadership group?

Assuming Dave Lowry isn’t back behind the bench next season, this will be one of the biggest decisions of GM Kevin Cheveldayoff’s tenure.  This is a team that’s built to win now, not a few years from now.  For me, that’s a strike against most of the first-time head coaching candidates; they need someone who is going to get under their skin quickly and whip them into shape.  A few years from now, the act will wear thin and that will coincide with a likely rebuild.

Writing those sentences out, John Tortorella immediately comes to mind.  He gets buy-in from his teams quickly and isn’t going to put up with the varying levels of effort that plagued the Jets this season.  They need that but I don’t think he’s necessarily the right fit to unlock the offensive potential this group has.  If Vancouver doesn’t get something done with Bruce Boudreau, I like that fit.  Jim Montgomery is someone that’s in between those two.  He has some experience and success running an NHL bench in Dallas, albeit playing low-event hockey that may not be the best for Winnipeg.  But I think he can fix some of the defensive concerns they have and be a fresh voice that this team would certainly benefit from.  I think he’d be a good fit overall for them so I’ll pick him.

I think it will largely be the same core group in place although Mark Scheifele’s comments to reporters, including Sportsnet’s Ken Wiebe postgame today certainly raise some eyebrows.  Cheveldayoff is known to be one of the safer general managers out there and assuming they do bring in a new voice (which could turn into several if there are changes on the bench as well), he may be inclined to think that will be the spark they need.  I lean that way myself, actually.  Winnipeg has a pretty strong core group in place.  A fresh voice and some depth improvement may very well be enough to get them back into the playoff picture next season.

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Looking At Phil Kessel’s Impending Free Agency

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Earlier in the week, PHR’s own Ethan Hetu covered the situation surrounding the pending free agency of Carolina Hurricanes forwards Vincent Trocheck and Max Domi. Now, however, we pivot to the Western Conference, turning the magnifying glass on Arizona Coyotes veteran (and two-time Stanley Cup champion) Phil Kessel. Arizona opting to not move Kessel for a return at this year’s Trade Deadline surprised many. The NHL’s now-resident iron man has a respectable 52 points in 81 games this year on a Coyotes team that’s put up just 202 goals on the season, the worst such number in the NHL, and that wasn’t due to a crazy post-deadline bump in production. Now, after the eight-year contract extension he signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2013 expires this offseason, the 34-year-old could hit the open market for the first time in his NHL career.

The bottom line remains that the Coyotes need NHL forwards next season. While their situation for 2022-23 has improved slightly after the acquisitions of young forwards Jack McBain and Nathan Smith, it’s unlikely that both of them (especially McBain) are ready for full-time NHL roles as soon as this fall. With the team surely a no-go destination for most of the NHL’s free-agent pool due to their arena situation, it’s not too far out of left field to assume Arizona’s choice not to move Kessel was influenced by the team’s desire to extend the veteran before he hits the open market.

If Kessel decides though, as he very well could, to join a team with more hype for 2022-23, the market for him should and will likely be there. While Kessel does just have eight goals on the year, his disastrous 4.7 shooting percentage (the lowest figure of his career) offers a compelling explanation for that. He’s not a factor defensively and hasn’t been for a few seasons now, but he remains a skilled and intelligent play-driver as evidenced by his 44 assists on the year. The fact that he’s having his best offensive season in Arizona in the year where he’s had the least talent surrounding him is sure to convince multiple general managers that Kessel still has it in him as a middle-six winger.

One near-perfect past comparable to Kessel’s situation is that of Corey Perry. Bought out a few years ago by the Anaheim Ducks, Perry signed a one-year, $1.5MM contract in Dallas after a career-worst season in Anaheim. He’s managed to continue performing as an extremely valuable depth piece on successful teams, helping provide secondary scoring. Kessel likely fits right into this mold, and could see a similar one- or two-year deal signed this offseason, albeit likely with a higher price tag. Perry had just 10 points the prior season, with Kessel outproducing that by about five times.

While there are multiple younger, flashier options on the market this offseason, they’re also a lot more expensive than Kessel would be. A short-term deal limits the negative implications of the contract if Kessel does enter a steep decline, and his Stanley Cup pedigree is obviously attractive around the league. A cap hit in the $4MM neighborhood seems likely for Kessel on a one- or two-year deal, though it could of course be lower if he opts to take a discount to join a cap-strapped contender. Arizona would likely need to offer more than that number to retain his services if they wish.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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