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Free Agent Focus: Tampa Bay Lightning

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Free agency is now less than six weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. Next up is a look at the Lightning.

RFAs: F Tye Felhaber, F Simon Ryfors, F Otto Somppi, F Odeen Tufto, D Sean Day, D Alex Green, G Alexei Melnichuk

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Ondrej Palat — Entering his 30s now, the Czech is in line for the second payday of his career as his five-year, $26.5MM contract signed in 2017 expires this offseason. Palat remains a dominant playmaking winger on the top line of a team entering the dynasty conversation with a third consecutive Stanley Cup Finals appearance within reach. While injuries have somewhat artificially lowered his regular-season point totals, he’s remained remarkably consistent, notching between 15 and 20 goals for three consecutive seasons. It’s in the playoffs where Palat has done his best work, though. He’s really shone through on Tampa’s current run, scoring eight goals, six assists, and 14 points in 16 games, the best points-per-game rate in his playoff career. He was equally as impressive during Tampa’s first Cup run in 2020, scoring 11 goals in 25 games and playing 20:55 per game. He’s been leaned on heavily in the second and third rounds this year with Brayden Point’s injury, and his performance is only boosting the number he’ll receive on his next contract. Whether Palat becomes the latest player to fall victim to Tampa’s constant cap crunch remains to be seen.

F Nick Paul — The Trade Deadline acquisition from the Ottawa Senators has done it all for the Lightning in his short tenure, most notably with his two-goal performance to knock out the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 7 in the First Round. Paul’s shown his ability to stick out on an already talented team, as his defensive game (especially on the penalty kill) has fortified Tampa’s depth in a much-needed way. While a defensive specialist first and foremost, he did have 14 points down the stretch in 21 games for Tampa and he’s added seven points in 16 playoff games. If that’s a sign of what Paul can really produce on a good team, he should be a hot commodity in free agency among contenders who have a little more cap flexibility. In the same way that Yanni Gourde broke out and flourished in the same third-line center role, few would expect Tampa to be able to retain Paul’s services as a UFA. It’s never a good idea to count out general manager Julien BriseBois and his team’s expert cap management, though, and he’d continue to play an important depth role moving forward.

D Jan Rutta —  A latecomer to NHL action, making his NHL debut at 27, Rutta’s been used as the partner to Victor Hedman at even strength and gotten the job done. While his special teams minutes are nonexistent aside from a small amount of penalty-killing time, he’s been an important depth piece for Tampa, although maybe not to the degree of someone like Paul. He’s demonstrated that he can be reliable in limited minutes or with sheltered competition, making him an ideal, cheap complementary veteran for a team’s top players. If Rutta demands a raise on his current $1.3MM cap hit, though, it could be tough for the Lightning to keep him around. Teams are constantly willing to pay up for right-shot UFA defensemen, and Rutta could benefit financially from that market elsewhere.

Other UFAs: F Riley Nash, F Remi Elie, F Charles Hudon, F Anthony Richard, D Fredrik Claesson, D Darren Raddysh, G Maxime Lagace

Projected Cap Space

At first glance, things really don’t look good for the Lightning this offseason. CapFriendly already projects them in the red for this offseason with a -$2MM figure for their projected cap space. However, that doesn’t tell the whole story, as the potential LTIR relief from Brent Seabrook’s $6.785MM figure isn’t incorporated into that total. Tampa likely has closer to $4.5MM to work with this offseason, which, if they do plan on keeping Palat around, will likely all go to him (if he’ll take a discount).

It’s likely that the Lightning lose another key piece this offseason, whether it be due to Palat walking or the team trading away another player. Some eyes would look at Ryan McDonagh and his $6.75MM cap hit as juicy trade material to free up space, especially considering the team still has Mikhail Sergachev stuck behind Hedman and McDonagh on the depth chart. He still plays an incredibly important role on the team, though, and it would be a tough goodbye considering the team’s lack of real depth on the right side.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Focus: Toronto Maple Leafs

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Free agency is now less than six weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. Next up is a look at the Maple Leafs.

Key Restricted Free Agents

D Rasmus Sandin – Having barely played a full season’s worth of games in his career, Sandin has impressed in his young career, totaling 28 points in 88 career games on the backend for Toronto. The 2018 first-round pick can expect a reasonable raise over his $895K AAV on his previous contract, his ELC. The Maple Leafs are currently, like many teams, up against the salary cap ceiling, and will have some tough decisions to make as they try to bring back as much of their roster as they can, while improving too.

Sandin may be a casualty of Toronto’s moving parts, as the team already has Morgan Rielly, Jake Muzzin, Mark Giordano, and T.J. Brodie under contract for next season, all of whom, like Sandin, play the left side. It’s not that Sandin has disappointed or that his raise will be too much to handle, but dealing a 22-year-old defenseman with upside from a position of strength could provide tremendous value for Toronto.

D Timothy Liljegren – Much of what can be said about Sandin, can be said about Liljegren. A first-round pick of Toronto in 2017, Liljegren has spent parts of the last three seasons in the NHL, getting a bulk of his action, 61 games, this season. Liljegren hasn’t taken the world by storm, but has impressed and was a steady presence in Toronto’s defensive core this year, and like Sandin, played a role in helping the much-discussed Maple Leafs defense take a real step forward. Unlike Sandin, Liljegren plays the right side, a position Toronto only has one player signed for next season: Justin Holl. Even if Toronto re-signs Ilya Lyubushkin (see below), they would still need Lilejgren to round things out. Liljegren can expect a raise over his ELC salary, however, it should be one modest enough for Toronto to handle, especially given their need for right defense.

F Pierre Engvall – After two solid seasons to start his career, Engvall found himself having a breakout 2021-22 season for Toronto, setting career-highs in goals with 15, assists with 20, points with 35, and games played with 78. These numbers won’t blow anyone away compared to teammates Auston Matthews or Mitch Marner, but the massive Swedish winger was able to turn heads coming off of a two-year, $2.5MM contract that carried a $1.25MM cap hit, which he is likely now due a raise on and is eligible to go to arbitration for.

F Ondrej Kase – After signing as a free agent with Toronto last offseason, Kase finds himself once again as a RFA. Kase’s case should be interesting, as the winger signed a three-year, $7.8MM contract following the expiration of his ELC in 2018, then with the Anaheim Ducks. He would struggle greatly with injury after being traded to the Boston Bruins, playing in just nine games in a season and a half, and being allowed to walk as a free agent. Toronto would sign Kase for one year and $1.25MM, where he would again struggle with injury, but play to a more respectable 27 points in 50 games. With a rebound on his resume, Kase could be dealt a raise over his previous $1.25MM salary, perhaps closer to the $2.6MM cap hit he signed in 2018. However, given Toronto’s need to improve while balancing a tight cap, Kase could be a candidate to be let go as an RFA, just as he was last offseason.

Other RFAs: D Joseph Duszak, D Chad Krys, D Kristians Rubins, G Ian Scott

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

G Jack Campbell – When it comes to pending free agents for Toronto, no player has a bigger spotlight than Campbell. Toronto’s starting goaltender had an up and down season in 2021-22 after several strong seasons playing part-time for the Los Angeles Kings and the Maple Leafs. The 30-year-old’s first half was good enough to earn him All-Star honors, however, he struggled after the All-Star break and even missed time due to injury. Upon his return, Campbell was again stellar down the stretch before a less-than-impressive showing against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round of the playoffs.

After letting previous starting goaltender Frederik Andersen go in free agency last summer, eventually winning the Jennings Trophy with the Carolina Hurricanes this season, Toronto is still unsure about its future in net. If Campbell can routinely be the player he was in the first half of 2021-22, the answer for the Maple Leafs is clear, but his more recent struggles loom large. Those struggles also don’t change the fact that Campbell was an All-Star and has performed well for more than a few games, which should lead to a relatively large salary increase from the $1.65MM cap hit he had in 2021-22. Considering a limited goalie market and several teams having a need in net, Toronto may have to prioritize Campbell and find a number they are comfortable with, then make adjustments to handle the salary cap afterward.

D Ilya Lyubushkin – The aforementioned spotlight on Campbell as Toronto’s primary UFA seems to overshadow Lyubushkin’s impending free agency. A large, physical defender who Toronto acquired from the Arizona Coyotes along with Ryan Dzingel for a second-round pick and Nick Ritchie earlier this season, Lyubushkin fills a role Toronto, as mentioned, is short on–right defense. Arguably their best player at that position, the Maple Leafs will have to do their best to keep a player they know they can trust, otherwise, their options for a cost-controlled right defenseman may be hard to come by. Lyubushkin likely won’t see big money this offseason, but coming off of a one-year, $1.35MM contract, the 28-year-old will absolutely have his own leverage.

F Ilya Mikheyev – The 27-year-old Mikheyev may be as likely as anyone to depart from Toronto. After requesting a trade from the organization, Mikheyev stayed put and put up a career year, finding the back of the net 21 times, a career best, with a career-high 33 points in 53 games. Mikheyev will surely receive a raise over his $1.645MM cap hit the previous two seasons in Toronto, a luxury Toronto likely can’t afford, and though Mikheyev never was traded, his UFA status will give him the freedom to choose where he plays.

Other UFAs: F Colin Blackwell, F Brett Seney, D Teemu Kivihalme, G Michael Hutchinson, G Carter Hutton

Projected Cap Space:

The theme of this article, and likely of Toronto’s offseason, is limited cap space. The team needs to improve if it wants to have deep, sustained playoff success. However, they have just under $7.185MM in projected salary cap space for next season. That’s plenty to make an addition or two, but they first need to re-sign their starting goaltender, one of their top right defensemen, and give modest raises to two young defensemen in Liljegren and Sandin and a breakout forward in Engvall. At that point, an addition would be nearly impossible. All of this before trying to perhaps re-sign Kase and Mikheyev.

One bright spot for Toronto in this difficult situation is its depth. Going back to Sandin, the organization boasts several quality NHL left-defensemen, allowing them to potentially deal from this strength to add a cost-controlled option at a weaker position. The team also has several high-quality prospects that could be ready to make that jump to full-time NHL work, including Matthew Knies, Nicholas Robertson,  and Nicholas Abruzzese.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Focus: Vancouver Canucks

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Free agency is now less than six weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. Next up is a look at the Canucks.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Brock Boeser — Since turning pro in 2017, Boeser has turned into one of the more consistent scorers on the Canucks despite what most view as a stalled development process. Boeser has notched at least 45 points in his five full NHL seasons, and he’s scored 20 goals in four of those years as well. While Boeser had consistently stuck around 0.80 points per game from 2017-18 to 2020-21, though, his scoring pace numbers took a dip this year with 46 points in 71 games. A lot of that can be attributed to his (and the team’s) slow start under former head coach Travis Green, though, as evidenced by an eight-game pointless streak from November 11 to November 26, 2021. After the team replaced Green with Bruce Boudreau on December 6, 2021, Boeser finished the season with 36 points in those 49 games, much closer to his usual pace. While a below-average play-driver, Boeser remains a strong shooter and good power-play contributor. Coming off a three-year bridge deal that already awarded him $5.875MM per season, though, Boeser is likely only in line for a small raise given his weaker contract year performance (if he’s not dealt).

F Matthew Highmore — Vancouver acquired Highmore from the Blackhawks over a year ago in a one-for-one swap for Adam Gaudette. While not in possession of the largest stature, Highmore remains a good defensive specialist who can be of value in a fourth-line role. He managed to squeak into 46 games with the Canucks in 2021-22, though, notching 12 points (both career-highs). While a regular role in the lineup may not be carved out for him next season, the Canucks will likely be able to keep him around on a cheap, one-way deal. At 26 years old, Highmore should remain a solid option to slot into a fourth-line role for a few years to come.

F Juho Lammikko — Similar to Highmore, Lammikko was acquired for another overgrown prospect in the Canucks system. Unluckily for Highmore, though, he and Lammikko were both battling for similar roles, and Lammikko won in the eyes of the team. The Finnish forward was absent for just seven of Vancouver’s 82 games this season, playing in a career-high 75 games with a career-high seven goals and 15 points. While Highmore is a better defensive forward by most advanced metrics, Lammikko’s comfortability in the faceoff circle and at the center-ice position gave him the edge. He’s likely more in line for a seven-figure deal given his regular role in the lineup, but it’s not a guarantee.

Other RFAs: F William Lockwood, D Guillaume Brisebois, D Jack Rathbone, G Michael DiPietro

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

G Jaroslav Halak — Signed to a one-year deal last offseason to be the backup to Thatcher Demko, we may have seen the last NHL game in Halak’s career. Halak only played in 17 games this season as he battled injuries, COVID, and poor play (just a .902 save percentage on the year). While most of that was due to Demko’s excellence in goal, he was outshined at points by veteran third-stringer Spencer Martin, who posted a .950 mark in six games. Considering Martin is signed to a one-way contract next season, it’s a sign that the organization may rely on him as a cheap backup option. With that, plus a handful of young goalies in the system, there’s no longer an organizational fit for Halak. At 37 years old, he’s unlikely to receive much free agent interest.

F Alex Chiasson — The veteran forward earned a spot out of camp on a professional tryout contract and proceeded to give the Canucks a solid return on their investment in 2021-22. Chiasson continued to do what he’s done for his entire NHL career — give his team a decent amount of goals in a limited role. The 31-year-old lit the lamp 13 times this season, good enough for eighth on the team. However, with more young players within the organization pushing for roles, it’s unclear whether the organization will have much interest in retaining him. Given his continued limited usage and poor defensive numbers, he’s unlikely to command much on an extension or on the open market.

Other UFAs: F Brad Richardson, F Brandon Sutter, F Justin Bailey, F Phillip Di Giuseppe, F Sheldon Dries, F Nic Petan, F Sheldon Rempal, F John Stevens, D Brad Hunt, D Madison Bowey, D Noah Juulsen, D Ashton Sautner, D Devante Stephens

Projected Cap Space

The Canucks do have a few roster spots to fill without unlimited room. While the Boeser extension won’t take up all of their projected $11.5MM in cap space, the team is under pressure to move forward toward playoff contention, which will require a free agent acquisition or two. There’s also the matter of the 2023 offseason when both captain Bo Horvat and J.T. Miller will become unrestricted free agents. Moving Micheal Ferland’s $3.5MM cap hit back to LTIR will give Vancouver some more cushion, but that only lasts through this year.

Vancouver could look at moving on from Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s massive $7.2MM cap hit through 2027, although they’d need to give up something significant to dump the contract. It may be worth it, though, as it’s an anchor deal that could seriously inhibit the team from developing properly. Regardless, they do have a little bit of wiggle room entering next season, allowing them to at least be somewhat competitive in free agency.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract figures courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Winnipeg Jets

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that weren’t playoff-bound plus those who were eliminated in the first two rounds.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Jets.

After being ousted by Montreal in the playoffs a year ago, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff shored up the back end with the hopes that would help Winnipeg get to that next level.  Instead, they underachieved this season, both with and without Paul Maurice behind the bench, and ultimately came up short of reaching the playoffs.  Cheveldayoff once again will have some work to do to try to get the Jets back into the postseason picture.

Hire A Head Coach

With Maurice surprisingly stepping aside midseason, Cheveldayoff made the logical choice to elevate Dave Lowry to the interim head coaching role.  It didn’t result in the type of improvement they were hoping for as Winnipeg’s points percentage under Lowry (.537) was basically identical to Maurice’s (.534).  In other words, the coaching change didn’t move the needle.

Lowry was the logical choice at the time in that the team wouldn’t have had the opportunity to interview assistants currently employed if they made a full-time hire midseason.  While a handful of assistants are still working at the moment, the team has been able to do a more comprehensive search (beyond Barry Trotz, who is basically singlehandedly holding up the market right now).

While Lowry is expected to interview for the full-time role, a new voice from outside the organization would make the most sense.  A new system from a new coach could be a significant enough change to avoid needing to necessarily make any core changes to the roster.  Cheveldayoff is thought of as one of the managers who tends to be patient with his rosters so it’s quite possible that a big addition behind the bench could be their biggest move of the summer.  But with free agency fast approaching (where coaches want to have their input), a new coach will need to be in place soon.

Re-Sign Dubois

When Cheveldayoff decided to shake up his core early in the 2020-21 season with the acquisition of Pierre-Luc Dubois for Patrik Laine and Jack Roslovic, the 2022 offseason became a very important one for the Jets.  That corresponded with the end of Dubois’ contract as the 23-year-old is set to become a restricted free agent with arbitration eligibility this summer.  He has already gone through one contentious negotiation, one that ended with a trade request out of Columbus, and now, Dubois is two years away from being eligible to hit the open market.

He’s coming off a strong season, one that saw him reach a career-high in goals (28) while picking up 60 points.  That has him positioned to land more than the $6MM qualifying offer he’s owed but the question is how much higher should they be willing to go?  If they want to sign him to a long-term deal that buys up some UFA years (and Dubois is amenable to signing that type of contract), the AAV is likely to go beyond Kyle Connor’s $7.143MM price tag.  Do they want to go that high and reset the benchmark for their younger core?

On top of that, there is also a question of where Dubois best fits.  He was brought in to play center but he has spent a fair amount of time on the wing as well.  A long-term, big-money deal could potentially price them out of re-signing Mark Scheifele in a couple of years; does it make sense to do that for a player who may be better off as a winger than a center?

If it feels like there are a lot of questions for a pending restricted free agent, it’s because there are.  The route they go with Dubois will help shape their planning for beyond the 2022-23 campaign so getting this done sooner than later would be ideal.  Dubois is likely to file for an arbitration hearing if something isn’t worked out over the next six weeks so this is something that will need to be resolved by late July or early August at the latest.

Create Cap Flexibility

The Jets have around $18MM available this summer but have anywhere between seven and ten players to sign with that money.  A big chunk of that will go to Dubois which won’t leave a lot to spread around the rest of the openings.  Freeing up a bit of extra flexibility would certainly help Cheveldayoff to build out the rest of the roster without having to resort to signing several players for minimum-salary deals to stay cap compliant.  Forward depth has been problematic the last couple of years so being able to spend a bit more on their bottom six would help.

In order to do that, they will likely need to trade away from their back end as there really aren’t any viable non-core forwards that could be traded to free up space.  They have nearly $25MM tied up in their five most-expensive blueliners which is a lot.  Nate Schmidt didn’t have a great trade market a year ago and that likely hasn’t changed while Josh Morrissey and Neal Pionk aren’t likely to go anywhere.  That whittles it down to Brenden Dillon ($3.9MM through 2023-24) and Dylan DeMelo ($3MM through 2023-24); moving one of them to make a roster spot for a prospect like Ville Heinola or Dylan Samberg would give them some cap relief and also provide a chance for one of them to get an extended look in the NHL.  In a summer where many teams will be looking for some extra flexibility, any little bit helps.

Fill Backup Goalie Slot

Eric Comrie more or less got the backup goalie spot by default with the Jets due to his contract being at the league minimum.  To his credit, he did quite well this season, posting a .920 SV% and 2.58 GAA in 19 appearances, giving Winnipeg solid value from that backup spot.  But Comrie is set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer and after the year he had, he should be able to command more than $750K on the open market.

The Jets will once again need to shop towards the lower end of the market unless they can free up a few extra million in cap space but while Mikhail Berdin is on a one-way deal for next season, his performance with AHL Manitoba isn’t good enough to really contend for that spot so they will almost certainly have to look outside the organization if they can’t reach a new deal with Comrie.  Considering the opening day of free agency usually results in quite the game of musical chairs for netminders, this is something Cheveldayoff will need to address by July 13th.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Vegas Golden Knights

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Free agency is now less than six weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. Next up is a look at the Golden Knights

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Nicolas Roy – After a 2019 trade brought him to Vegas, Roy began showing flashes of skill and higher ability than he had shown in Carolina’s organization. Roy played 20 playoff games for the Golden Knights as they made a run to the 2020 Western Conference Final, scoring eight points, and finally established himself as a regular in 2020-21, getting into 50 regular-season games and 19 playoff games. Roy’s real breakout, though, came this past year, where he flew by his career highs in goals and points to finish with 15 goals and 39 points on the year. Roy was a consistent presence bringing both skill and physicality to a lineup ravaged by injuries, and his development was a major factor in keeping the Golden Knights’ playoff hopes alive until late in the season. Roy played on a $750k cap hit last year and is set to earn a decent raise on that number, although it remains to be seen if he will take a bridge contract or if the Golden Knights will choose to try to lock him up long-term.

D Nicolas Hague – Hague was the Golden Knights’ first-ever second-round pick and has developed nicely since he was drafted 34th overall in 2017. Hague’s big six-foot-six frame has always intrigued scouts and has helped him carve out a role in the NHL. Hague made his NHL debut in 2019-20, getting into 38 games and posting a healthy 11 points. Hague was a regular in 2020-21, skating in 52 games and scoring 17 points. While he battled injuries this past season and only featured in 52 out of the team’s 82 games, Hague’s future in Vegas looks bright. Hague played on a $791k cap hit this past season, and does not have arbitration rights. Given the cap constraints of the cup-or-bust Golden Knights, it seems like a bridge deal makes the most sense for both parties, although after the team signed fellow young blueliner Zach Whitecloud to an extension through 2027-2028, a similar long-term deal for Hague cannot be ruled out.

F Keegan Kolesar – Kolesar has been a great story for the Golden Knights. Kolesar was acquired from the Columbus Blue Jackets for a second-rounder in the 2017 draft, and disappointed in his first season in their system, spending 20 games playing for the Quad City Mallards of the ECHL. But since that point Kolesar has developed his game year after year and grown to be a regular bottom-sixer in Vegas. This past year was Kolesar’s second as an NHL regular, and he got into 77 games and posted 24 points. Kolesar was a dependable physical force in former coach Peter DeBoer’s lineup, but didn’t reach the offensive heights some may have expected. Kolesar is arbitration-eligible so it will be interesting to see which direction the team goes with his extension. The value true value of players like Kolesar can be sometimes difficult to quantify, so the raise Kolesar receives from his $725k cap hit will say a lot about his standing in Vegas’ organization.

Other RFA’s: F Brett Howden, F Jack Dugan, F Benjamin Jones, F Jake Leschyshyn, F Jonas Rondbjerg, D Daniil Miromanov, D Brayden Pachal, G Dylan Ferguson

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Reilly Smith – One of the Golden Knights’ original “misfits,” Smith has been a top-six staple in Vegas since the team first took the ice. Smith was originally acquired from the Florida Panthers at the team’s expansion draft and has 230 points in 321 games in Vegas. Smith’s best play has come in the playoffs, where he has 52 points in 66 games, including a phenomenal 22-point performance in the team’s 2018 run to the Stanley Cup Final. Smith had a difficult 2020-21, scoring only 25 points in 53 games, but he bounced back this year to post 38 points in his injury-limited 56-game season. That’s a 55-point pace, which is what can normally be expected from Smith, who posted between 53 and 60 points in his first three seasons in Vegas. Smith’s inability to stay healthy last year, when combined with his age (31), could be a potential threat to his free agent market. But ultimately his play on the ice will be the most important determining factor deciding what sort of contract he receives. Given his overall profile, a similar contract to the one Pittsburgh Penguins forward Bryan Rust signed could be a reasonable landing spot for both camps. The only question then, is whether or not the Golden Knights are in a position to afford Smith on that sort of deal.

F Mattias Janmark – Janmark was acquired from the Chicago Blackhawks at the 2021 trade deadline, and has fit decently well as a bottom-sixer in Vegas. He had some big performances, including a game-seven hat trick against the Minnesota Wild in 2021, but like many Golden Knights struggled with injuries and inconsistent play in 2021-22. Janmark’s average time on ice declined from around 17 minutes per game last season to under 14:21 in 2021-22. Janmark cost $2.25MM against the cap this season, and it’s fair to wonder if Vegas will be able to pay Janmark that sort of figure next season should they be interested in a reunion. Although it’s definitely possible he re-signs, Janmark will probably be able to receive more lucrative offers from other teams compared to what Vegas is in a position to offer.

Other UFA’s: D Jake Bischoff, F Gage Quinney

Projected Cap Space

The great lengths the Golden Knights have gone to stay under the salary cap have often made headlines, whether it be through their aggressive use of long-term injured reserve or attempt to trade a highly-paid player to a destination he had previously listed on his no-trade clause. This offseason figures to feature similar challenges for Vegas’ front office. The team has been built around a core of high-end, highly-paid veteran players, with Jack Eichel, Alex Pietrangelo, Mark Stone, and Max Pacioretty all commanding salaries at or above the $7MM mark. The Golden Knights enter the offseason with just $200K in cap space, meaning the team will likely need to get creative in order to have enough room to make their desired moves this summer.

The team could pursue a trade involving Evgenii Dadonov as they did in the past, or could choose to make a trade including a contract they can place on long-term injured reserve in order to create cap space, similar to what Tampa Bay’s front office did with the Tyler Johnson trade. Either way, they will need to do something, and how the Golden Knights’ offseason goes will largely be determined by what route they choose in order to create cap space. Could they trade bigger names such as Dadonov or even a William Karlsson? Or could they work around the margins, moving a player like Laurent Brossoit who, while still a solid backup option, is suboptimal on Vegas’ roster since he costs $2.325MM and Logan Thompson is waiting in the wings with a $766k cap hit.

Whatever route the Golden Knights ultimately choose to take, it’s their pursuit of cap space that will be the defining theme of their offseason.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Washington Capitals

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Free agency is now less than six weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Capitals.

Key Restricted Free Agents

G Ilya Samsonov – After a disappointing sophomore year, the Capitals were hoping that the 25-year-old would have a bounce-back campaign and stake his claim to the starting spot.  It didn’t happen.  Instead, Samsonov’s performance dipped once again with a save percentage of just .896 while his GAA jumped to 3.02.  In other words, he performed like a backup goalie.  Samsonov is owed a $2MM qualifying offer but is now arbitration-eligible which will help drive the price tag a little higher but it would be hard to see Washington offer a long-term deal.  He still will be RFA-eligible next summer so a one-year contract that gives him one more chance makes the most sense for both sides.

G Vitek Vanecek – Washington opted to trade a second-round pick to Seattle to get Vanecek back a week after they lost him in expansion and it’s a move that worked out well for them.  The 26-year-old had a near-repeat performance of his rookie year, posting an identical save percentage of .908 and improving slightly on his GAA from 2.69 to 2.67.  The qualifying offer for under $800K but it’s irrelevant as he’ll get at least three times that on his next deal.  Unlike Samsonov, Vanecek is a year away from UFA eligibility so they might be inclined to work on a multi-year pact with him which could push the price tag closer to the $3.5MM range.

Other RFAs: D Tobias Geisser, D Lucas Johansen, F Brett Leason, F Beck Malenstyn

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D Justin Schultz – Schultz was a surprise signing in 2020 considering Washington had little cap space at the time which made it seem unlikely that they’d use a lot of it on one player.  His first year with them was good and he was able to hold down a spot in their top four, averaging just over 19 minutes a game.  However, things didn’t go as well this season.  His production dipped to 23 points in 74 games (a bit on the low side for an offensive defenseman) while he dipped below 17 minutes in ATOI as he was more sheltered; in the playoffs, that dipped to just over 15 minutes.  The Schultz of 2020-21 was close to being worth his $4MM AAV but this year’s version wasn’t near that price point.  Still just 31, there will be a market for him – especially as a right-shot defender – but he will be hard-pressed to land a raise in free agency.  A small dip appears likely.

F Marcus Johansson – It took a little while for Johansson to sign last summer, eventually agreeing to a one-year, $1.5MM deal with Seattle before making his way to Washington at the trade deadline for the second go-round with the team.  His per-game numbers were quite similar to his 2020-21 performance so it stands to reason that he should be able to command a similar price tag this time around.  Johansson’s positional versatility will help his market but at this point of his career, he’s more of a depth scorer than a top-six player like he was just a few years ago.

F Johan Larsson – Larsson has shown flashes of offensive skill in the past but it hasn’t yielded much production.  He had a bigger role while he was with Arizona and there was a corresponding increase in production as he was just over a half a point per game before being moved to the Capitals at the trade deadline.  Generally speaking, teams will want to go low on their fourth liners and role players to save some cap space but Larsson has a chance to be an exception as a decent checking center that can chip in a bit from the fourth line.  He should have a chance to at least come close to the $1.4MM AAV he had in each of the last two years.

Other UFAs: G Pheonix Copley, F Shane Gersich, D Matt Irwin, D Michal Kempny, F Brian Pinho

Projected Cap Space

Washington enters this offseason with just under $9MM in cap space and two big question marks with the injuries to Nicklas Backstrom and Tom Wilson.  They could both be LTIR-bound to start the season but at least in Wilson’s case, he’ll be back after a couple of months.  With Backstrom, everything is on the table still with GM Brian MacLellan saying continuing to play through his injury would be unsustainable.  If they shut him down for a year with surgery, he could stay on LTIR throughout the year and the Capitals would have some flexibility.

Until they know one way or the other, they can’t plan for that to happen so for now, the bulk of that $9MM will need to go towards their two RFA goaltenders while they’ll also need to sign a defenseman or two with the leftover money.  Unless Backstrom is ruled out for the season, MacLellan won’t have much cap flexibility to work with this summer.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: New York Islanders

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that weren’t playoff-bound plus those who were eliminated in the first two rounds.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Islanders.

This past season was a tough one for New York.  They were forced to start with a 13-game road trip to ensure their new arena was ready to go and got hit hard with COVID-related absences soon after.  That put them in too much of a hole to climb out of.  Despite making the Eastern Conference Final the previous two years, GM Lou Lamoriello opted for a coaching change, dismissing Barry Trotz and elevating Lane Lambert to the top role.  However, that can’t be the only thing they do this summer if they want to get back into contention; Lamoriello has a few other items on his to-do list in the coming months.

Add Scoring Help

Let’s get the obvious out of the way first.  Scoring has been an issue for this team for a while as they haven’t averaged three goals per game since the 2017-18 season.  Part of that can be attributed to Trotz’s defense-first system but there isn’t a lot of firepower on this team.  Only Brock Nelson and Anders Lee cracked the 20-goal plateau this season and over the final two months of the year, Mathew Barzal was regularly playing with Zach Parise and Oliver Wahlstrom; with all due respect to those players, that’s probably not the optimal combination for their most skilled forward.

Back at the trade deadline when the Isles were very quiet, Lamoriello opted not to make any changes, stating that his focus was on ‘hockey trades’ to bring in pieces that better fit his roster.

With the team having barely $12MM in cap space and several roster spots to fill with that money, they don’t have the financial flexibility to be aggressive bidders on the free agent market.  Accordingly, this is one of those situations where Lamoriello will make a hockey trade and move out an underachiever for someone that’s a better fit.  Wingers Josh Bailey (two years, $5MM AAV) and Anthony Beauvillier (two years, $4.15MM) are candidates to move from their existing forward group while veteran goaltender Semyon Varlamov (one year, $5MM) could also make sense if they find a trade that’s acceptable to the 34-year-old who has a 16-team no-trade clause.  Either way, whether it’s one of them moving or someone else, New York will need more offensive production to get back into the playoff picture.

Re-Sign Dobson

A good chunk of their cap space is going to be heading towards defenseman Noah Dobson who is set to become a restricted free agent this summer.  After his first two NHL seasons were relatively quiet, 2021-22 was a breakout year that allowed the 22-year-old to finish third on the team in points with 51 including 13 goals.  For perspective, the rest of their blueliners combined for 19.  Not surprisingly, Dobson’s ATOI jumped up by more than five minutes a night from his sophomore campaign.  In other words, he had quite the platform year.

While the Islanders would undoubtedly like to lock Dobson up on a long-term deal, that would go against Lamoriello’s tendencies as he has continually opted for bridge contracts for his core RFAs including Barzal and defenseman Ryan Pulock in recent years.  A short-term pact would also allow them some extra cap flexibility to try to upgrade their roster.  That makes the bridge deal the likeliest scenario.

The extremes between Dobson’s first two seasons and this one will make it tricky to find the right number and without arbitration eligibility, the Islanders hold more of the leverage.  A two-year deal with an AAV around the $3MM range which is more than what Pulock and Adam Pelech received on their second contracts while a third season could push it closer to the $4MM range.  Anything longer than that would walk Dobson to unrestricted free agency so it’s likely that three years is the maximum term that New York will want to go.  It may take a while – Dobson’s only leverage is to delay signing in the hopes of getting a better offer later – but eventually, the two sides will come together on a short-term pact.

Rebuild The Defense

Over the past few years, the NHL has started to shift towards a more mobile back end.  The Islanders have been one of the exceptions but now as they work to retool things under a new head coach, this is the right time to try to kickstart that change.

Zdeno Chara and Andy Greene have been successful defensemen in the league for quite a while but mobility has been an issue for both of them while their offensive games are also quite limited.  Both are pending unrestricted free agents and should be replaced with younger, better fits.  Sebastian Aho is more of a mobile blueliner but has struggled in his own end in limited NHL action.  He’s also a pending UFA and will need to be retained or replaced.  That’s three roster spots that they’ll need to try to fill within their limited cap space and in terms of in-house options, only Robin Salo might be able to push for a spot at the end of the roster.

It’s also worth noting that Scott Mayfield is a year away from UFA eligibility as well and will be eyeing a sizable raise from the $1.45MM cap hit he’s on now.  Any multi-year commitments they make this summer will offset how much they can give to Mayfield a year from now so that’s something Lamoriello will have to weigh as he navigates the open market this summer.

With Pelech, Pulock, and Dobson, the Isles have a strong core back end that is either signed or under club control for at least the next four years.  That’s a strong foundation to work with.  Now, improvements will need to be made at the bottom end within a very tight cap situation to start moving towards a younger, more mobile defensive group.

Work On Barzal Extension

Three years ago, the Islanders and Barzal eventually worked out a three-year bridge deal, one that will be expiring next summer.  That means once the calendar flips to the start of the 2022-23 league year in mid-July, the two sides will be able to work on a contract extension.  After the season, Barzal stated that he wants to work out a long-term contract and is hopeful to remain with New York for his full career, a proclamation that is certainly encouraging from the team’s standpoint.

Barzal will be owed a qualifying offer of $8.4MM which is 120% of his current AAV; that’s the lower number between it and his salary for next season ($10MM).  He’ll also have arbitration eligibility at that time.  That qualifying number, therefore, serves as the absolute minimum starting point for negotiations as if the 25-year-old doesn’t like what the long-term offers look like, he can simply accept the qualifier in 2023 and become UFA-eligible a year later.

The potential challenge here is that Barzal hasn’t exactly produced at a level that’s worthy of offering considerably more than the qualifier.  While he averaged more than a point per game in his rookie season, the most he has gotten since then is 62 points.  He’s undoubtedly their most gifted offensive player but in a more defensive environment under Trotz, his numbers have suffered.  If Barzal thinks things will open up under Lambert, it may make more sense for him to play out next season and see what happens from there knowing the qualifying offer will still be on the table at that time.  But if Lamoriello comes in with a long-term offer in the $9MM range, it might be enough to give Barzal a chance to play for the Islanders for a long time to come.

They may not get a deal done this summer but both sides seem likely to give it a shot.  It isn’t as pressing as some of the other elements that will affect their plans for next season but as the offseason goes on and things slow down, that would be an optimal time to get to work on Barzal’s file.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Winnipeg Jets

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Free agency is now less than six weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Let’s begin with a look at the Jets.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Pierre-Luc Dubois: After a bit of an underwhelming first year with Winnipeg, Dubois was much more impactful this past season, sliding in nicely into the center spot on the second line for a good chunk of the campaign while also playing up when Mark Scheifele was injured.  The end result was numbers that were comparable to his sophomore season with Columbus as he put up 28 goals (a career high) and 32 assists in 81 games.  The 23-year-old is only two years away from being eligible for unrestricted free agency since he started in the NHL at 18 and is owed a $6MM qualifying offer next month.  Dubois is poised to land more than that if he gets to an arbitration hearing on a one-year award while a long-term contract that buys out his prime UFA years could push him closer to the $7.5MM mark.

F Mason Appleton: After a strong showing in 2020-21, Appleton was a widely-expected choice for Seattle in expansion but things didn’t go as well with the Kraken.  That resulted in him being moved back to Winnipeg at the trade deadline but he still scuffled offensively.  In the end, a platform season of 21 points in 68 games isn’t great but it should still be more than enough to push for a small increase on his qualifying offer of $945K, especially since this is his last year of RFA eligibility.  A long-term contract isn’t likely but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Winnipeg try to sign a multi-year pact and gain another year or two of team control in the process.

F Evgeny Svechnikov: The 25-year-old finally got a full NHL season under his belt and held his own in limited minutes, collecting 19 points in 72 games.  That’s not why he’s mentioned here, however.  As teams look to keep costs down on their end-of-roster players (something the Jets have done the last few years), Svechnikov’s arbitration eligibility looms large.  It’s not that an award would be over-the-top expensive (likely around the $1MM range) but depending on what happens with Dubois, Winnipeg is likely to have to get quite thrifty with their last few roster spots and an extra few hundred thousand may be more than they can afford which makes him a potential non-tender candidate.

Other RFAs: G Philippe Desrosiers, D Leon Gawanke, F David Gustafsson, F Jansen Harkins, D Johnathan Kovacevic, F Jeff Malott, D Markus Phillips

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

G Eric Comrie: Last summer, Winnipeg’s cap situation forced them to have to go with a backup making the minimum salary so Comrie got the nod and had his first full NHL season as a result, albeit with limited minutes.  He made the most of his playing time though, posting a SV% (.920) that was ten points higher than Connor Hellebuyck and a GAA (2.58) that was 39 points better than Hellebuyck.  While no one is going to argue that Comrie should be making the $6.166MM that Hellebuyck is getting, he has positioned himself to command much more than the minimum on the open market.  His limited track record will keep him out of the range of the top backups (around $4MM) but half of that could certainly be attainable.

F Paul Stastny: The 36-year-old was largely under the radar this season but he had a solid year, chipping in with 21 goals and 24 assists in 71 games which is solid second-line production.  Between that and being consistently above average at the faceoff dot, there should be a fairly strong market for Stastny if he makes it to free agency.  He took a pay cut to stay with the Jets last summer, dropping down to $3.75MM and it wouldn’t be surprising to see teams offer more than that on a one-year deal.  However, it’s possible that Stastny decides to take less to go to a contender as well as some veterans do.  He’s eligible for incentives in his contract as long as it’s a one-year deal which could be an option to keep the 2022-23 charge down which would help those contending teams.  Once Dubois signs his new contract, it will be difficult for the Jets to afford to keep him in the fold.

F Zach Sanford: He underwhelmed after joining Winnipeg at the trade deadline but there will be a decent market for the 27-year-old.  While he’s not enough of a reliable offensive threat to play in the top six, he chips in at a reasonable enough clip for a depth player while providing plenty of physicality.  That’s something plenty of teams will have interest in although Sanford may be hard-pressed to make more than the $2MM he received this season coming off a bit of a down season.

Other UFAs: F Adam Brooks, F Luke Johnson, F Austin Poganski, F C.J. Suess

Projected Cap Space

At the moment, Winnipeg has a little over $18MM in wiggle room under the salary cap although they have to re-sign half of a forward group, a backup goalie, and a depth defenseman with those funds.  There’s a good chance over 40% of that will go to Dubois which doesn’t leave GM Kevin Cheveldayoff a lot of room to try to add another impact piece to their roster.  If they largely stick with their current core and don’t make a trade or two to shake things up, they’ll be relying on their new head coach to help take this team back to playoff contention.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Columbus Blue Jackets

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that weren’t playoff-bound plus those who were eliminated over the first couple of rounds.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Columbus.

This season was a bit of a mixed bag for the Blue Jackets.  They weren’t expected to contend as their rebuild continued but managed to have their highest-scoring season in franchise history despite the exodus of veteran talent and they integrated several promising youngsters into their lineup.  However, despite that, they still missed the playoffs by 19 points.  At this point, it seems unlikely that they’ll make some big swings to try to get into the thick of the Wild Card race but instead, they’re more likely to stay the course which is to slowly build up; their checklist has that in mind.

Add Grit

Jakub Voracek has been around the league for a long time (14 years) so he should know a thing or two about roster composition.  Following the season, he told reporters including Jeff Svoboda of the Blue Jackets’ team site that the team has struggled when it comes to physicality and it’s something he’d like to see addressed so let’s start with that on their checklist.

Generally speaking, a team that has as young of a core as the Blue Jackets do (they had the lowest average age in the NHL going into the season and only got younger as the year went on) should want to insulate those players with a bit of toughness.  That doesn’t necessarily mean a throwback enforcer but a power forward or two that can play in the bottom six and still be a contributor.  Those players aren’t in as short supply as impact power forwards so they should be able to find some.  That won’t necessarily drastically improve their chances of winning in the short term but if it gives their younger players a little more confidence, there could be some benefits from those additions.

Re-Sign Laine

Last offseason, re-signing Patrik Laine was a priority and since he simply accepted his one-year qualifying offer, it’s back at the top of their list this time around as well.  While the value of the qualifier remains unchanged at $7.5MM, the 24-year-old has more leverage this time around.  He’s now one year away from unrestricted free agency and could simply accept his qualifier again (or file for salary arbitration) and ensure that he’d have a chance at hitting the open market in the prime of his career.

As a result, GM Jarmo Kekalainen will soon be engaging in serious discussions with Laine’s camp on a new deal if he hasn’t done so already.  If the winger wants to keep his options open instead of committing to a long-term deal, then the team will have to give serious consideration to trading him this summer; doing so by the draft would be preferable as some picks would almost certainly be part of any package.

Even if Laine is willing to sign a long-term contract, finding a number that works for both sides will be tricky.  This season was Laine’s first point-per-game campaign but he missed 26 games due to injury.  If we look at his career average on a per-82 extrapolation, Laine checks in at 35 goals and 31 assists.  Those are certainly good numbers but the market value for a player with that type of production isn’t far off the $7.5MM he made this season.  For him to forego testing the market, the Blue Jackets will need to come in above that but at what point does that become too much of an overpayment to justify (even with their current cap flexibility)?

Right now, for Columbus, Laine’s contract should be their top priority.  While there’s no firm deadline to get something done, if they want to know where things stand by the draft, that’s now less than six weeks away while free agency opens up a week after that.

Add Defensive Help

The good news for the Blue Jackets this season was that they set a franchise record for goals scored.  The bad news for them is that they also set a franchise record for the most goals allowed.  With several young forwards with room to continue developing, there’s some hope to maintain or even improve upon their offensive production.

However, there isn’t a lot of room for optimism to significantly improve that defensive number as things stand.  Their goaltending tandem remains intact with Elvis Merzlikins and Joonas Korpisalo with neither netminder coming off a particularly strong season.  Both are capable of being better but with the back end Columbus currently has, that improvement might not be too big.

Accordingly, this is an area that needs to be addressed.  They have a decent core of younger players which is fine for a rebuilding team but as they look to emerge from that, some veterans that are capable of playing an impact role should be added.  It probably won’t all come in one summer – this process will likely be gradual – but an emphasis on bringing in someone capable of playing the penalty kill and in key defensive situations would certainly help to stabilize things in the short term.

Gavrikov Extension Talks

Over his three years with the Blue Jackets, Vladislav Gavrikov has worked his way into a prominent role on the back end.  But because he waited until the age of 23 to come to North America, he’s already just a year away from unrestricted free agency after Kekalainen curiously signed him to a bridge contract that walked him straight to UFA eligibility.

With Seth Jones, David Savard, and even Ryan Murray departing in recent years, Columbus has seen some important defenders leave.  They did well to get good assets back for Jones and Savard in trades but the talent coming in hasn’t been close to the talent that left.  To lose Gavrikov next summer or even at the trade deadline would deal them another blow.

As a result, trying to work out an extension will be fairly high on Kekalainen’s to-do list, especially as the offseason progresses.  He’s going to be in line for a nice raise on his $2.8MM AAV especially coming off the year he had (33 points in 82 games while averaging over 22 minutes a night) but his salary for next season – $4.2MM – serves as a reasonable starting point for talks.  A multi-year offer a little above that rate (in the $4.5MM to $4.75MM range) might be enough to get it done and ensure that a key piece of their defensive squad is a pair of the post-rebuild future.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: San Jose Sharks

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that weren’t playoff-bound plus those who were eliminated early in the postseason.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at San Jose.

After being a consistent playoff threat including 14 appearances in a 15-year stretch, things haven’t gone as well for the Sharks in recent years as they’ve missed in three straight seasons.  With a veteran-laden roster and minimal flexibility from a salary cap perspective, it’s a big checklist for them to navigate through this summer.

Hire A GM

Before even getting into what needs to be done, the Sharks need to determine who is going to do the work.  Interim GM Joe Will clearly has the green light to make moves as evidenced by the contract extensions for Alexander Barabanov and Jaycob Megna earlier this month.  Ownership has expressed an openness to having Will take the team through the draft and potentially into free agency as well.  While that’s a nice short-term vote of confidence, it doesn’t seem as if Will is considered a strong candidate for the full-time position.

But it isn’t just a matter of who the next GM will be, it’s when that person takes over.  If Will has control going into free agency, it’s possible he makes decisions that his successor won’t like.  That makes that scenario a tough one to play out.  As a result, determining who the full-time GM will be and getting that person under contract as soon as possible needs to be at the top of their priority list.

Move A Goalie

Most of the time, a three-goalie system isn’t tenable for a full season.  San Jose was able to make it work after the trade deadline with Adin Hill missing time but he’ll be fully recovered for training camp.  James Reimer is still on the roster while Kaapo Kahkonen was brought in at the deadline in the Jacob Middleton trade.  At first glance, it sure seems like one of them needs to be moved.

Kahkonen is the youngest of the three at 25 and is a restricted free agent this summer.  To move a quality young blueliner for him only to trade Kahkonen away later doesn’t seem likely to happen.  Instead, a multi-year contract that buys out some UFA years is probably their preferred outcome if they can afford it on the cap.

That leaves Hill and Reimer battling for one spot.  Both players have one year left on their contracts and will be UFA-eligible in 2023.  The cap hits are nearly identical ($2.25MM for Reimer, $2.175MM for Hill).  But when it comes to age and experience, there’s a big difference as the 34-year-old Reimer has 433 career NHL appearances while the 26-year-old Hill sits at 74.  If the Sharks are prioritizing the longer-term, Hill has the most upside but it’s also possible that it comes down to if one is willing to sign an extension this summer.  Neither netminder is likely to carry much trade value but it would be tough for the Sharks to carry all three on the roster in October.

Meier Extension Talks

Back in 2019, the Sharks signed winger Timo Meier to a four-year, $24MM contract as a restricted free agent.  On its own, the AAV was reasonable and it allowed him to still be RFA-eligible at the end of the deal.  But his contract was the most extreme of the backloaded contracts done that summer as his salary for next season is $10MM.  Since that deal was signed before the new CBA, he’s not subjected to the new rule where the qualifier is the lower of the previous salary or 120% of the AAV.  In other words, they have to qualify him at $10MM next summer if he’s not on a new contract by then.

A few years ago when the salary cap was steadily on the rise, the number would have been a little inflated but potentially manageable.  Now, with the Upper Limit barely moving for the time being, offering Meier $10MM isn’t manageable, at least with the state of the rest of their roster.

While Meier is signed for next season already, there is a pressure point of sorts this summer.  In an ideal world, San Jose doesn’t want him to enter 2022-23 without a new deal in place.  Getting to next summer where Meier either has to be let go or qualified at an above-market rate isn’t palatable for the team.  As a result, finding a suitable extension now has to be a priority.  Meier is worth a raise on his current AAV and is coming off a career year that saw him pick up 35 goals and 41 assists but it shouldn’t be up to $10MM per season.  Whoever is named as the permanent GM is going to have a big negotiation this summer as a result.

Free Up Cap Space

The Sharks have some big contracts on the books, especially on the back end where they have over $31MM in commitments and that doesn’t include RFA Mario Ferraro who is coming off a season where he logged 23 minutes a game.  Even without arbitration eligibility, he’s in a good position to command a sizable raise of his own off his entry-level salary.

Right now, San Jose could get through the summer okay.  They could try to sign Ferraro and Kahkonen for one year, sign their other RFAs to one-year deals, trade a goalie, and manage to narrowly stay cap-compliant by carrying a roster close to the minimum size.  But will they be any better than they’ve been the last few seasons?  Probably not.  Looking ahead to the 2023 summer, they’ll have 11 players signed at just over $57.5MM which doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room for improvement in the future either, especially considering Meier needs a new deal that summer.

As a result, if they want to add an impact player or even have the flexibility to shake up their roster, they need to move a big contract.  Brent Burns ($8MM through 2024-25), Erik Karlsson ($11.5MM through 2026-27), and Marc-Edouard Vlasic ($7MM through 2025-26) are the oft-discussed possibilities although they each have at least some form of trade protection and not a particularly robust trade market because of their contracts.  No one said it would be easy but for the Sharks to have a chance to shake things up, they will need to find a way to move out one of those rearguards.

Resolve Kane Grievance

There is one other factor at play when it comes to San Jose’s summer and that’s the Evander Kane situation.  The expectation is that it will be resolved by the start of free agency but there is still plenty of uncertainty surrounding whether or not his deal will be put back on their books, the termination will be upheld, or, most likely, a settlement is reached which is what happened with the Kings and Mike Richards when things went down that path back in 2015.  The details of any potential settlement will go a long way towards determining what space they have to work with this summer and how much extra emphasis will have to be placed on clearing out one of their existing contracts.  The sooner they find out the end result of this, the better.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

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