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2008 NHL Draft Take Two: Second Overall Pick

at CDT | by 24 Comments

Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.”  Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended.  For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

We’re looking back at the 2008 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now.  Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?

On Sunday, we asked the PHR community to weigh in on who should have been the top pick and over 70% of the votes cast went towards history repeating itself with Steven Stamkos being the number one selection.  For comparison, Patrick Kane had over 85% of the votes to stay as the top selection in our 2007 series so while it was still a sizable majority, it was a little closer this time around as we move on to the next selection.

That pick was made by the Kings who opted for defenseman Drew Doughty.  He was coming off of two high-scoring seasons with Guelph of the OHL which had him ranked as the top defenseman available by most scouting services so the selection didn’t come as too much of a surprise.

It’s safe to say that it has panned out quite nicely.  Doughty played his way onto the roster – no small feat for an 18-year-old defenseman – and made an immediate impact as he logged nearly 24 minutes a night.  The following year, the offensive promise he showed at the major junior level came through as he picked up 16 goals (the most of his career to date) and 59 points (second-most).

All in all, Doughty is the only player from the 2008 draft class to play at least 1,000 career NHL games while he has been a four-time Norris finalist, winning the award once in 2016.  He has two Stanley Cup championships under his belt in 2012 and 2014 and at the age of 32, he still has been going strong, averaging more than 25 minutes a night in each of the last ten seasons.  It’s safe to say the Kings are happy with how things turned out with their selection.

But was it the right one; would they have been better off with someone else instead?  With the second pick of the 2008 NHL Entry Draft, who should the Los Angeles Kings select?  Cast your vote below.

(App users, click here to vote.)

Free Agent Profile: Zach Aston-Reese

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Zach Aston-Reese was one of the more prized college free agents in recent memory when he came out of Northeastern University at the conclusion of the 2016-17 college season, with nearly half of the league pursuing him. The forward ultimately chose to sign a two-year, entry-level deal with the Pittsburgh Penguins beginning the following season, which also allowed him to make his professional debut with the AHL’s Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Penguins that year. After a brief, yet impressive 10-game stint in the AHL where he posted eight points, Aston-Reese came back and impressed once again with Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, earning the opportunity to crack the NHL for the first time in 2017-18.

In his first NHL season, Aston-Reese had four goals and a pair of assists in 16 games, a solid performance which was made all the better by his ability to play a physical game, contribute in dirty areas, and contribute on the penalty kill. All of that lead to Aston-Reese playing in 10 of Pittsburgh’s 12 playoff games that year as well. The following season, Aston-Reese would spend a little more time in the AHL before establishing himself as a regular on the NHL roster. In three seasons, the power-forward registered 45 points, 23 goals and 22 assists, over 145 regular season games, bringing along his gritty and responsible style of play with his offensive output.

This season was more of the same for Aston-Reese, who had two goals and nine assists in 52 games for the Penguins leading into the trade deadline. Somewhat of a salary cap casualty, Aston-Reese was included in the package that helped Pittsburgh bring back forward Rickard Rakell from the Anaheim Ducks. Now on an Anaheim team that had had its struggles and traded away several roster players at the deadline, Aston-Reese was able to slide into the lineup immediately and have an impact. Though he didn’t show many signs of improvement over the player he had been for his career thus far, the forward brought more of the same to the Ducks, tallying four points, three of which were goals, in 17 games, that included fairly regular penalty kill time.

At the conclusion of the season, Aston-Reese was set to hit the UFA market and the still-rebuilding Ducks chose to let him walk, as the franchise sought to overhaul its group to an extent. In the nearly month-and-a-half since free agency has begun, many players have signed, but some solid NHL talent still remains waiting for a new opportunity, Aston-Reese included.

Stats:

2021-22: 69 GP, 5-10-15, +9 rating, 28 PIMs, 78 shots, 231 hits, 13:02 ATOI

Career: 230 GP, 32-34-66, + 39 rating, 99 PIMs, 351 shots, 655 hits, 13:42 ATOI

Potential Suitors:

This late in the offseason, players still on the market generally can’t afford to be too picky with the opportunities they receive, and the same might be true for Aston-Reese. However, the forward should be expected to gather some interest from teams who could offer him either a two-way contract or a PTO. Out of those offers, the 28-year-old is likely to look for one where he has the best chance of finding regular ice time. Aston-Reese’s responsible, physical, and high-energy game is one that may not jump off the page statistically and could be hard to understand from just watching a little here and there, or of course, just playing a little here and there. His game is one that shines through, somewhat quietly, by playing night in and night out. Thus, an opportunity on a team that can get him in the lineup on a nightly basis may be the best situation.

One team that sticks out as a solid fit is the Staten Island native’s hometown team – the New York Rangers. Right now, the Rangers boast a talented group of players both up front and on the blueline, however with a bottom-six that would project to include Sammy Blais, Filip Chytil, Julien Gauthier, Barclay Goodrow, Dryden Hunt, and Ryan Reaves, there could be opportunities for Aston-Reese to crack the lineup. In all likelihood, he would be competing with Rangers prospects like Will Cuylle, Vitali Kravtsov, and Brennan Othmann for a roster spot and playing time, but his experience and style of play could be a strong fit for a younger team that is already building it’s bottom-six with a similar style of player.

Other options for the veteran winger likely include rebuilding teams who prefer to keep established NHLers in the lineup rather than rush their prospects, such as the Chicago Blackhawks or Arizona Coyotes. Aston-Reese may also be able to find an opportunity with a competitive team who values his experience and energy, looking to have him as a budget option to compete for ice-time along with their less experienced players who the team prefers to let develop, rather than play in especially important games. A team like the Colorado Avalanche stand out as an example.

Projected Contract:

This late into free agency, Aston-Reese’s options are likely limited to a two-way deal or a PTO. If he’s offered a one-way contract, it’s highly unlikely that will be for any more than the league-minimum of $750K. A PTO may be the best-case scenario for Aston-Reese, which would give him a chance to highlight his play, which becomes more apparent the more consistently it’s seen. The PTO would give him a chance to find an opportunity with that team, or if not, perhaps with another team that has the chance to evaluate his tryout from afar. An especially strong showing may also vault Aston-Reese into the territory of a guaranteed one-way contract, potentially for even more than the league-minimum.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Calgary Flames

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Calgary Flames

Current Cap Hit: $80,363,333 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Jakob Pelletier (two years, $863K)

Pelletier has yet to play in the NHL but the 2019 first-rounder is coming off a strong season in the minors that saw him put up 27 goals and 35 assists in 66 games with AHL Stockton; that performance will give him a good chance to push for a regular roster spot in training camp.  At this point, a bridge contract is the likeliest scenario for him but two strong NHL seasons could change that.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Milan Lucic* ($5.25MM, UFA)
F Trevor Lewis ($800K, UFA)
D Nicolas Meloche ($950K,UFA)
D Juuso Valimaki ($1.55MM, RFA)
G Daniel Vladar ($750K, RFA)
D MacKenzie Weegar ($3.25MM, UFA)

*-Edmonton is retaining an additional $750K of Lucic’s cap hit

Potential Bonuses:
Lewis: $200K

Lucic’s struggles on this contract have been well-documented.  He’s not the high-end power forward that he was in the prime of his career and at this point, he’s best utilized in more of a limited capacity.  It’s likely that he’ll be going year-to-year on any future contracts with a cap hit that is below $2MM, if not less.  Lewis was second among Calgary forwards in hits last season and has been a capable fourth liner for several years now; he should give them some positive value on this deal.

Weegar is coming over from Florida where he spent most of the last two seasons on their top pairing and has developed a quality offensive game over that stretch as well.  He’s likely to play a similar role with the Flames which has him well-positioned to more than double his current contract on the open market next summer.  The fact that he’s a right-shot defender, the side that is always in high demand and short supply, only stands to help his value.  Valimaki spent most of last season in the minors and didn’t do quite as well as either side had hoped.  He’s now waiver-eligible which could help him stay on the roster at least but as things stand, he’s likelier to be non-tendered than receive a $1.86MM qualifying offer.  That’s a surprising turn of events for someone believed to be a part of their future plans.  Meloche saw extended NHL action with San Jose last season for the first time, helping him secure a one-way deal in free agency.  If he can hold onto a spot on the third pairing with regularity, another small raise on the open market next summer would be achievable.

Vladar’s first full NHL season had some ups and downs with the end result being a 2.75 GAA and a .906 SV% in 23 games.  Those numbers aren’t excellent but they’re backup-level and with the escalating salaries for second-stringers, Vladar could easily double his current cap hit next summer if he has a similar performance in 2022-23.

Signed Through 2023-24

F Mikael Backlund ($5.35MM, UFA)
F Dillon Dube ($2.3MM, RFA)
D Noah Hanifin ($4.95MM, UFA)
D Oliver Kylington ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Elias Lindholm ($4.85MM, UFA)
F Kevin Rooney ($1.3MM, UFA)
D Chris Tanev ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Tyler Toffoli ($4.25MM, UFA)
D Nikita Zadorov ($3.75MM, UFA)

Backlund has spent parts of 14 seasons with Calgary and has been a key cog down the middle for most of those.  Now 33 and with a couple of middlemen ahead of him on the depth chart, he’s likely to play a lesser role moving forward and while he’ll still be one of the stronger defensive centers in the league, this contract will quickly become an above-market one.  Toffoli was added in a midseason swap with Montreal to give them some extra scoring on the wing and he did just that en route to his sixth 20-goal campaign.  He’s basically making second line money so as long as he stays in that role and keeps producing his usual level of production, the Flames will get some good value here.

Lindholm has really seen his career take off since coming over from Carolina four years ago.  He has continued to be a high-end defensive player while he has gone from being more of a secondary offensive producer to a legitimate top-line center.  His contract is certainly a sizable bargain for now as he’ll have an opportunity to potentially double his current AAV two years from now if he continues to produce at this pace in their new-look lineup.  Dube did well offensively in very limited minutes last season and is poised to play a bigger role in 2022-23; if he can increase his production accordingly, he’s someone that could have a shot at doubling his price tag as well in 2024.  Rooney has been a serviceable fourth liner the past couple of seasons and will play in that role with Calgary; it’s unlikely he’ll be able to command much more than that in his next trip through the open market.

Hanifin is coming off a career year offensively and while he hasn’t become the consistent two-way threat Carolina thought he’d be when they made him the fifth-overall pick in 2015, he is a legitimate top-pairing defender.  The market value for those players is considerably higher than what he’s making now, making this another team-friendly deal.  His next contract will be a few million higher than this one.  Tanev has stayed healthy the last two years which isn’t normal for him which has allowed Calgary to get a better-than-expected return so far.  He’ll need to be scaled back a bit over the next couple of years which will put him in line for a bit of a smaller deal in 2024, one that will almost certainly be a short-term contract.

Zadorov had an underwhelming first season with the Flames but the market wasn’t there for him so he opted to stick around.  If he can’t become more of a core piece for Calgary over that stretch, it’s hard to imagine that he’ll get another deal like this one; size and physicality aside, depth defenders rarely command this type of contract.  Kylington went from being a depth piece to a full-time regular last season, providing some secondary production in the process.  Interestingly, he signed a deal that walks him straight to unrestricted free agency at 27 so there’s a chance for another sizable jump in his contract in 2024.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Andrew Mangiapane ($5.8MM, UFA)

To call last season for Mangiapane a career year would be an understatement.  After his previous benchmark in points was 32, he passed that in 2021-22 with his goal total alone, notching 35 along with 20 assists in 82 games despite averaging less than 16 minutes a night.  In the end, the two sides opted for what is essentially another bridge contract, one that gives him a significant raise on the $2.425MM AAV he had for the last two seasons without locking in a lot of long-term risk for the Flames if his production reverts back closer to his career averages.  The pressure will be on now and Mangiapane will need to prove he’s a reliable 30-goal scorer to have a chance at getting that much on his next deal.

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Free Agent Profile: Cody Eakin

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In order for the inaugural Vegas Golden Knights team to have the historic season that they did, they required a full team effort with contributions up and down their lineup. Offensive performances from William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault, David Perron, and Reilly Smith, backed by future Hall-of-Famer Marc-Andre Fleury in net, highlighted the team’s success, but secondary performances were able to vault a solid team into one that came just a few wins shy of a Stanley Cup title in just it’s first try. One of those performances was from veteran forward Cody Eakin, who Vegas selected from the Dallas Stars in the 2017 Expansion Draft.

Originally a third-round pick of the Washington Capitals in 2009, Eakin established himself as a complete player and dangerous scorer, breaking out the year after he was drafted with a 47-goal campaign for the Swift Current Broncos of the WHL in 2009-10. After another strong WHL season in 2010-11, Eakin made his NHL debut in his first full professional campaign in 2011-12, putting up 27 points in 43 games for the Hershey Bears of the AHL and another eight points in 30 NHL games for the Capitals. Following that season, he was dealt to the Dallas Stars, where he spent the majority of his career to-date. Eakin would play parts of four seasons in Dallas, having one of the best seasons of his career when he recorded 40 points in 78 games in 2014-15. Ahead of the 2016-17 season, he signed a four-year, $15.4MM deal to stay with the Stars, but wound up with Vegas for most of the final three years.

With Vegas, Eakin became a crucial depth piece for the organization as it chased an ultimately elusive Stanley Cup. Perhaps the best season of his career thus far came in 2018-19, setting career-highs in goals, with 22, and points, with 41, in 78 games. In the final year of his deal, Vegas dealt Eakin to his hometown Winnipeg Jets before he hit free agency in the 2020 offseason. The veteran would sign a two-year, $4.5MM contract with the Buffalo Sabres, but his production dropped off sharply, recording a mere 19 points in 115 games over the two seasons, a far cry from the 22 goals and 41 points he was just two seasons removed from when he signed in Buffalo.

Now a free agent more than a month after the market opened, the versatile forward appears to be paying for his struggles in upstate New York. As effective as Eakin is in his own end, on the penalty kill, and in the faceoff circle, it’s hard for almost any team to justify giving Eakin the roster spot and time-on-ice necessary to be effective with such little offensive production. The ability to score is there for Eakin, however he hasn’t produced 30 points since that career-best 2018-19 and that regression came with him still in his prime.

Stats:

2021-22: 69 GP, 4-8-12, -15 rating, 22 PIMs, 74 shots, 56,0 FO%, 13:35 ATOI

Career:  701 GP, 110-146-256, -25 rating, 278 PIMs, 1,016 shots, 50.7 FO%, 15:16 ATOI

Potential Suitors:

As discussed, given the complete lack of offensive production the past couple of seasons, it would be tough to find a team that could justify giving regular minutes to Eakin. His game is primarily focused on defense and playing in his own zone, so not having a stellar track record on the other side of the puck is understandable, but there is a clear difference between the 0.41 points-per-game Eakin averaged from 2013-14 through 2018-19, and the 0.21 points-per-game he’s averaged since.

All of that said, there are still several extremely valuable things Eakin brings to the table. For one, his ability to play in his own zone and kill penalties, something he’s been doing his entire career. Experience doing this and the ability to work with a team’s younger players on this can be extremely valuable. Speaking of experience, Eakin has been to a Stanley Cup Final and has 50 playoff games of experience under his belt. Not only that, given his play style, he’s been trusted in some of the most crucial moments of those playoff games before. Having been there, and done it, a team bringing in Eakin as a situational player can expect him not to be phased when the time comes.

The usual suspects for forwards in these Free Agent Profile articles tends to be the Minnesota Wild and New York Islanders, who could both use some help up front. However, Eakin doesn’t seem to make sense for either, who have a few options already that play a similar role. An option that could make sense is a reunion in Vegas. With Robin Lehner headed to LTIR, Vegas will have a little more space with which to work, and though it won’t allow for any groundbreaking moves, bringing in a familiar face to do the little things might be preferable to a veteran-heavy team like Vegas as opposed to a younger player with little NHL experience or some sort of a shuffle of taxi-squad players.

Projected Contract:

This late in free agency with many organizations set on their rosters, and especially now with his regression, it’s hard to imagine Eakin will see the sort of money he earned when he signed with Dallas in 2016 or Buffalo in 2020. Still, at 31 years of age, Eakin’s career is far from over, even if he’s approaching the tail-end of his prime years. Instead of hoping to extend his career just a bit longer, he is more likely still in a position to try to rebound and get back to the player he was in Dallas and Vegas not too long ago.

This might require him to take a league-minimum $750K contract, or even a two-way deal. It could also come on the heels of a successful PTO stint, which may be the most likely scenario at this point in the offseason. A PTO might actually be a favorable opportunity, with the signing team wanting to evaluate Eakin, they would put him in positions to succeed and show he’s capable of the rebound, which could ultimately lead to be more consistent opportunities out of the gate.

Free Agent Profile: Evgeny Svechnikov

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Once one of the more exciting prospects in hockey, Evgeny Svechnikov hasn’t fully developed into the talent the Detroit Red Wings were hoping for when they selected him 19th overall in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft.  Taken just after Mathew Barzal, Kyle Connor and Thomas Chabot, Svechnikov was expected to be a dynamic threat just like those three, using his size and natural offensive talent to create, and capitalize on, offensive chances. Unfortunately, the enticing skillset he brought didn’t translate to the NHL and now, at age 25, the winger finds himself, for the second time in as many years, a UFA after failing to secure a qualifying offer.

Growing up in Russia, Svechnikov made his way through the Russian youth hockey scene, eventually securing a spot in the AK Bars organization. He would play parts of two seasons with their MHL team and even made his KHL debut during his age-17 season. The following year, 2014-15, Svechnikov made the jump to North America, joining the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles of the QMJHL, where he immediately impressed, scoring 32 goals along with 46 assists in 55 games. After the Red Wings selected him that June, Svechnikov returned to Cape Breton, dominating again with almost identical numbers: 32 goals and 47 assists in 50 games. The forward made his professional debut that season, skating in two playoff contests for the AHL’s Grand Rapids Griffins.

Svechnikov didn’t look back, playing a full season for the Griffins in 2016-17, tallying 20 goals with 31 assists in 74 games, showing he was ready for pro hockey in North America. Frustratingly for both player and organization, that would be Svechnikov’s last true step as a prospect. The next season, he would record just 23 points in 57 AHL games along with four points in 14 NHL games, following that up with 25 points in 51 AHL games and zero points in four NHL games. The 2020-21 season wasn’t much better and that summer, the Red Wings would fail to qualify him, making Svechnikov a free agent for the first time in his career.

Now 24, Svechnikov received strong interest from the Winnipeg Jets organization, signing an AHL contract and a PTO that eventually became an NHL contract. The Jets gave Svechnikov his first taste of full-time NHL action in 2021-22, but the winger still couldn’t put together a season that reflected the promise he once had. Over 72 games in Winnipeg, Svechnikov had just seven goals and 12 assists. That campaign did show he could play a full-time role for an NHL team, but perhaps also served to prove he was not set to become the player he was projected to be.

Stats:

2021-22: 72 GP, 7-12-19, -4 rating, 38 PIMs, 78 shots, 48.8 CF%, 10:45 ATOI

Career: 113 GP, 12-19-31, -10 rating, 58 PIMs, 125 shots, 49.3 CF%, 10:40 ATOI

Potential Suitors:

Finding a good fit for Svechnikov seems tricky. One aspect to consider is what does he bring to the table, and what is its value? At 25, he’s still relatively young and fresher than some of the veteran options that remain. Despite being fairly young relative to the other options, he still comes with experience, skating in 113 NHL games, as well as 186 in the AHL. Unlike many other players with his age and experience, Svechnikov brings his former prospect status. In other words, not too long ago, he had a ceiling higher than this. Almost 26, it’s rather unlikely he manages to hit or approach that ceiling, but he could still have a chance to bounce back to some extent and produce more than he has. Still, after his 51 points in 74 AHL games in 2016-17, he hasn’t been able to come close to replicating the production in the NHL or AHL.

Something worth considering is how little opportunity it seems Svehnikov has had when he does get on the ice in the NHL. Looking more closely at his career, Svechnikov has just 125 shots on goal. Granted, he’s only skated in 113 games, but it would be difficult to score at a high-rate when not shooting at a high-rate. It would also be difficult to shoot at such a rate, when averaging just 10:40 of time-on-ice, like Svechnikov has in his career. His 10:45 of time-on-ice and 78 shots in 2021-22, his only full season in the league, are fairly consistent with that of the rest of his career. Difficult, but fair: if Svechnikov can’t prove he can produce, he also won’t see those opportunities either.

Returning to the issue of where Svechnikov fits best, the answer might be a team looking for a diamond-in-the-rough talent, but also willing to give him the time and opportunity to succeed. Most teams won’t be able to justify giving a player with 31 points in 113 games those sorts of minutes, and those that may have them available could choose to give them to younger players who still hold their prospect status, leaving Svechnikov in a difficult state of limbo. One fit could be the Chicago Blackhawks, who appear committed to let their young players to develop in other leagues and have veterans hold the line for now. With the organization committed to the rebuild, they could be in a place to give Svechnikov some extra opportunities to prove his value.

Projected Contract:

Last offseason, Svechnikov signed a PTO with the Winnipeg Jets, earning a league minimum contract that he signed just prior to the start of the regular season. Over a month into free agency, it would appear Svechnikov is headed down that road once again. If he is offered a contract, whether that be in lieu of a PTO or afterwards, chance are it will not only be at the league minimum of $750K, but will be a two-way deal, much the same as it was this season.

PHR Mailbag: Bruins, Kings, Center Market, Wild, Red Wings, Islanders Transactions

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Topics in this edition of the mailbag include fixing Boston’s cap situation, the future center market, when the Islanders might announce a move this summer, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

case7187: What do you think the Bruins will do to get cap space?

Right now, probably nothing of consequence.  They have time to work with as they can get through the first two months of the season simply using LTIR.  A lot can change from a roster perspective in that time; does someone else get injured that could extend that LTIR safety net?

The reality is that moving out a contract is quite difficult right now and while it wouldn’t cost a first-round pick to offload the final year of Craig Smith’s deal or Nick Foligno’s, parting with future assets at a time when they might not be far from a rebuild of some degree is going to sting.  They might be able to take a smaller contract back and save a bit of money that way but there’s a better approach than that and it’s the one that I think Boston (and a whole lot of teams) are going to use.

Rather than part with an asset to move Smith and take a smaller contract back, why not just waive Smith?  Or Foligno?  Or, when healthy, Mike Reilly, who’s another potential casualty?  If you lose one of them for nothing, it’s still a better outcome than trading a future asset away to accomplish the same thing.  If they clear, they’d free up $1.125MM in cap space each time.  Do that two or three times and voila, problem solved.  If they get to the playoffs, those players return to the roster when there’s no salary cap so there’s no need to go for a rental depth piece or two at the deadline.

To be clear, I’m not singling those players out as not being worthy of being claimed.  Instead, I think there are going to be plenty of players in that price range ($3MM or so) that are dumped on waivers because teams know there’s little chance they’ll be claimed.  Think back to a couple of years ago when we saw some veterans waived to bounce back and forth from the taxi squads in an effort to bank any sort of cap room.  I expect that will be much more prevalent this coming season.

If there’s a reasonable opportunity to move a player out that doesn’t cost an asset of some significance, that’s obviously Plan A.  But if it doesn’t happen, I think they play things out, see how far they can get with LTIR, and then waive their way into cap compliance with two or three players being waived, clearing, and getting sent down to Providence.

rpoabr: Do the Kings get both Anderson and Durzi signed or do they make a trade to alleviate the logjam?

I think there’s enough money for both to sign without a trade needing to be made.  Let’s break down the current projection from CapFriendly that has the Kings only have around $1.5MM to spend on both players.

There are 15 forwards on that roster.  At most, they’re carrying 14 and in all likelihood, probably 13.  At a minimum, that frees up $750K with the likelier outcome being closer to $1.6MM in extra space.  Now they’re at $3MM or so to spend which is a lot better.

Defensively, there are seven signed players on there once you factor in the ones showing as injured.  Again, at least one has to go and the easiest solution is probably Jordan Spence even though it’s not the fairest solution.  It could be Jacob Moverare but Spence is waiver-exempt and Moverare isn’t.  Those things matter at the beginning of the season.  At a minimum, that’s another $762.5K off the roster, bringing the actual cap space closer to $3.8MM.

That should be more than enough to get both players signed on short-term bridge deals.  It’s doubtful either one gets more than two years so it’s not a long-term fix but it’s enough to get contracts done without compromising any of their depth.  Players in these situations don’t have any leverage outside of holding out and hoping for a better offer so even with that cap space in mind, it might take a few more weeks at least for one or both of them to sign.

baji kimran: Do you seen any real good (maybe even elite) centers coming available in the next year or two?

On the trade front, the first one that comes to mind is Winnipeg’s Pierre-Luc Dubois.  It sure seems like he has no intention of signing with the Jets on a long-term basis which will either have him traded in the next year or so to a team where he will sign or take another one-year deal next summer to hit the open market in 2024.  He’s not elite but as a fairly young player that can play on the second line, I’d say that would qualify.

Looking ahead to next summer’s free agent class, it’s actually pretty good as things stand.  Nathan MacKinnon would command a king’s ransom if he was to somehow make it there and definitely is in the elite category.  Dylan Larkin and Bo Horvat are also up at that time and are very good fits for plenty of teams.  Ryan O’Reilly is a capable veteran and Jonathan Toews will be up as well.  In 2024, the list currently consists of Auston Matthews, Sam Reinhart, Sebastian Aho, Elias Lindholm, Mark Scheifele, and Anze Kopitar, among others.  That’s a pretty good group as well.

Obviously, not all of those players are going to actually become available.  Most probably won’t.  But with a flat salary cap, some of them are probably going to make it there or at least become available in a sign-and-trade proposition.  For teams hoping to add an impact middleman over the next couple of years, there’s a bit of cause for optimism as a result.

Zakis: What free agent forward will the Wild sign? Or will they try and trade from the D depth to acquire a more impactful F?

I’m going to tackle these out of order.  I don’t see Minnesota moving their defensive depth to acquire a more impactful forward simply because there isn’t one that they’d be willing to move that would bring in a forward of significance.  I think they’d move Dmitry Kulikov but there aren’t teams lining up to trade a good forward for him.  Jon Merrill’s value has been limited in the past as well so he wouldn’t bring back a big return either.

When I first saw this question, Phil Kessel was the player that came to mind in free agency.  He’s someone that would probably play on the third line at five-on-five but he’d help the power play and in a more offensive environment, he’d probably give them a good return on a $2MM or so investment, which would ensure that they have ample cap space for midseason activity as well.  I think Paul Stastny would be a good fit as well with their center depth not being the strongest and Sonny Milano in that system would be intriguing from an upside standpoint.  If they sign a free agent, I could see it being one of those three.

There’s another option in between these and that’s taking on a contract with another asset for future considerations.  There are several teams that need to make a cost-cutting move and several more that might not have to but want to.  That might be a more desirable approach for them to take to add a middle-six forward plus a draft pick or prospect.  GM Bill Guerin would have plenty of options to ponder if he was open to going that route and it wouldn’t surprise me if that’s the path he ultimately takes.

Johnny Z: When does Stevie pull the trigger on that blockbuster trade? He has two big guns in Larkin and Bert that have not been extended as of yet, an under-performing Zadina, and some depth D to bargain with.

I’ve had similar questions in recent mailbags so I won’t go through the whole answer again but I keep coming back to the fact that teams rarely go from also-rans to contenders right away.  How will their core perform under the pressure of important games night after night in the playoff hunt and the playoffs themselves?  The problem with answering that is another question in itself; when was the last time Detroit’s core played in a bunch of meaningful games?  It has been so long that GM Steve Yzerman simply doesn’t know how that’s going to go.

When you bring up that blockbuster trade, I think of that move being the one that will vault them into contention.  They know what that missing piece is and they go and get it.  But I’d argue that they don’t know what that missing piece is yet.  They can hope that everyone will perform to expectations but that’s all it is, hope.  They need to see this group go through some legitimate pressure points which will tell them when the time is right to make that move.  It’s not this coming season and I’m not convinced it’s the year after either as what happens with Dylan Larkin and Tyler Bertuzzi (both 2023 UFAs) could impact their contention timeline.

Teams should be making that blockbuster move to bring in that missing piece of the puzzle.  Detroit isn’t particularly close to that point and making it too early could present more problems down the road.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Anaheim Ducks

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Anaheim Ducks

Current Cap Hit: $63,657,667 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Jamie Drysdale (one year, $925K)
F Mason McTavish (three years, $894K)
F Trevor Zegras (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses:
Drysdale: $850K
McTavish: $2.5MM
Zegras: $850K
Total: $4.2MM

Simply put, these three are the centerpieces of Anaheim’s rebuild.  Zegras played his first full NHL season in 2021-22 and finished second on the team in scoring, establishing himself as their top center in the process.  An early extension is always possible but with only 99 career games under his belt, GM Pat Verbeek might want to wait on that.  His next contract seems likely to check in around the $8MM range on a long-term deal, similar to the ones that Nick Suzuki and Josh Norris have signed recently.  Worth noting, he will still have five years of team control after next season.  As for McTavish, he didn’t look out of place in his limited NHL stint last year and his showing at the World Juniors shows that he’s ready for a full-time role in 2022-23.  It’s obviously too early to forecast his next deal but they’re hoping he does well enough to be in that $8MM range as well.

Drysdale had some struggles in his own end last season but that’s hardly uncommon for a 19-year-old and overall, he had a solid first full NHL campaign.  While it might seem that he should get a bigger role this season, that’s far from a guarantee with the veterans that will be ahead of him.  That makes his next contract a bit tricky.  Anaheim will certainly want to extend him on a max-term deal but it might be in Drysdale’s best interest to look for a two or three-year bridge deal; he also will have five years of team control remaining.  He’d get more of a chance to play top minutes in 2023-24 so locking in long-term before getting that opportunity would carry some risk from an earnings standpoint.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

D Simon Benoit ($750K, RFA)
F Max Comtois ($2.037MM, RFA)
F Derek Grant ($1.5MM, UFA)
D John Klingberg ($7MM, UFA)
D Josh Mahura ($750K, RFA)
D John Moore ($2.75MM, UFA)
D Kevin Shattenkirk ($3.9MM, UFA)
G Anthony Stolarz ($950K, UFA)
F Troy Terry ($1.45MM, RFA)

Bridge contracts are often overlooked as they’re often by-products of a salary cap situation.  That isn’t the case in Anaheim as the ones they signed were simply decisions to see how a player continues to perform before needing a big commitment.  They’ll certainly be needing that big commitment for Terry as he had a breakout showing in 2021-22, scoring 37 goals and 67 points.  For context, he had 15 goals in 128 contests heading into the season.  A repeat performance would push Terry well past the $6MM mark on a long-term deal which is basically four times what his qualifying offer would be next summer.  Anaheim will enjoy another season at a bargain price tag and will be paying up soon after.

At the opposite end of the spectrum is Comtois.  He received a bridge deal even after leading the Ducks in scoring in 2020-21 and the first year of it didn’t go well.  He struggled with his production and consistency which resulted in him dropping down the depth chart and even being scratched at times.  Still just 23, they’re certainly not giving up on him but his contract is back-loaded which results in a $2.55MM qualifier next summer.  A repeat showing next season will make the decision regarding his future a little trickier.  As for Grant, he’s coming off a career year with 29 points and played like a capable third center.  That’s a good return for that price point and if Anaheim is out of the playoff picture in February, he’ll be a strong candidate to move as a rental at the trade deadline.

The addition of Klingberg this summer certainly raised some eyebrows.  His presence on the roster will make it a little harder for Drysdale to play an elevated role in the lineup but at the same time, the veteran is in a good spot to be productive and show that he’s worthy of the long-term commitment he was seeking this summer.  Even so, that long-term contract will likely check in at a lower price tag than this one unless he really has a standout performance.  It certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see him move at the trade deadline either.  The same can be said for Shattenkirk who has re-established himself as a top-three defender with the Ducks but might be in tough to put up the type of offensive numbers that he’s accustomed to with Klingberg now in the fold which could hurt his market in free agency next summer.  Moore was a cap casualty they had to take on in the Hampus Lindholm trade last season and he’ll be looking at a deal at or near the minimum next season while Benoit and Mahura will need to become full-time regulars if they want to make more than the minimum in 2023-24 as well.

Stolarz did well in his first full NHL season as a backup, posting an impressive .917 SV% in 28 appearances.  With the way that backups have seen their price tags go up in recent years, if he’s able to play at a similar level next season, he could push for upwards of three times his current deal.  Even if he takes a step back, double his current price could still be doable.

Signed Through 2023-24

F Sam Carrick ($850K, UFA)
F Adam Henrique ($5.825MM, UFA)
F Max Jones ($1.295MM, RFA)
F Isac Lundestrom ($1.8MM, RFA)
F Jakob Silfverberg ($5.25MM, UFA)
D Urho Vaakanainen ($850K, RFA)

Henrique had a rough 2020-21 season to the point where he cleared waivers but he was much better last season with 42 points in 58 games while winning over 55% of his faceoffs.  That’s not a great return on his price tag but those are second-line numbers which is a better outcome than seemed possible just a season ago.  He won’t be able to command that type of money two years from now though.  The same can be said for Silfverberg, who’s coming off an injury-riddled year that saw him score just five times in 53 games.  While he was a top-six winger at the time his deal was signed, he isn’t now.  Carrick very quietly put up decent numbers in a depth role last season with 11 goals in 69 games after having just four in parts of five seasons before that.  His contract is cheap enough to give Anaheim good value if he’s on the fourth line while if young players push their way into his spot, it can be buried in the minors.

As for the younger forwards in this group, Lundestrom did well in his first full NHL season, picking up 29 points and playing a big role shorthanded.  Still just 22, he’s more of an unheralded part of their future plans and should be more of a bottom-six player moving forward but this was still a promising season.  The bridge deal makes sense and if he can produce at a similar rate these next two years, his AAV could jump into the $3MM range.  It’s safe to call the first year of Jones’ bridge contract a write-off as a pectoral injury limited him to just two appearances last season.  If he can return as a capable bottom-six winger, there’s room for his price tag to go up a couple of years from now.

Vaakanainen was part of the Lindholm trade as well and while he hasn’t played up to the level of a first-round pick as he was in 2017, he showed some signs of progressing into a regular NHL defender.  This contract has a chance to be a bit of a bargain as a result but with limited offensive upside, he’s not going to be someone to command big money down the road.  Doubling his current AAV could be achievable if he can hold down a regular spot.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Frank Vatrano ($3.65MM, UFA)

Vatrano has largely gone under the radar but he very quietly has scored at least 16 goals in each of the last four seasons and is coming off his second straight 18-goal campaign which wasn’t bad considering he played just over 13 minutes a night.  That type of money for someone whose role is that limited is a bit on the high side but he has been able to produce with some consistency with less ice time than players that hover around 20 goals typically get.  That made for a pretty strong market for him last month which yielded this contract.

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Free Agent Profile: Alex Chiasson

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A veteran of 631 NHL games spread over parts of 10 seasons, free agent forward Alex Chiasson once again finds himself in familiar territory: approaching training camp without a contract, after another solid NHL season. The veteran has signed three PTO’s thus far in his career, each of them resulting in an NHL contract, and all signs point to this offseason not being much of a change of pace. Chiasson spent last season as a member of the Vancouver Canucks, his first with the team, where he scored 13 goals to go with nine assists over 67 games, The winger’s 2021-22 doesn’t exactly match him up alongside the games greats, but it did represent another season of solid bottom-six play for a physical, two-way player, something he has brought to every team in his career thus far.

A second-round pick of the Dallas Stars in 2009, Chiasson was a highly-regarded prospect when he spent three years at Boston University prior to turning pro at the end of 2011-12. The younger Chiasson wouldn’t wait too long to make his NHL debut either, dressing in seven games for Dallas during the 2012-13 season, registering an impressive six goals in the short sample. Since debuting with the Stars, Chiasson has played for six different franchises, including Dallas, the Ottawa Senators, Calgary Flames, Washington Capitals, Edmonton Oilers and most recently Vancouver.

Despite the transition from team to team, Chiasson has made a name for himself as a reliable role-player everywhere he has gone, bringing a physical element while also chipping in on the penalty kill, and even contributing somewhere between 10 and 15 goals per season. Perhaps his most impressive season came not too long ago, when he scored a career-high 22 goals along with 16 assists for 38 points over 73 games as a member of the Edmonton Oilers in 2018-19. Turning 32 years of age just prior to opening night, it’s unlikely to expect Chiasson to take any step further with his game or even repeat the success he saw back in Edmonton, but he has been a model of consistency and hard work, two valuable assets to just about any team in the league. He’s likely headed for yet another PTO, but the chances of seeing him back in the NHL for the 2022-23 season still seem high given his track record.

Stats:

2021-22: 67 GP, 13-9-22, +4 rating, 24 PIMs, 98 shots, 56.3 CF%, 11:37 ATOI

Career: 631 GP, 114-110-224, -36 rating, 353 PIMs, 896 shots 52.6 CF%, 13:37 ATOI

Potential Suitors:

For his career, Chiasson seems to have a habit of latching on with relatively good teams, perhaps due to luck, but perhaps not. This past season saw the veteran’s Vancouver team struggle early, but make a tremendous push for a playoff position, just barely missing out. In the two seasons prior, his Edmonton Oilers made the playoffs, missing with 79 points in 2018-19, his career-year. Arguably the highlight of his career though was a Stanley Cup championship with the Washington Capitals in 2017-18. One would think, whether it’s a happy trend, Chiasson’s personal choice and analysis, or something in particular that he himself brings to the table, that whatever team he winds up with will at least be a strong contender for a playoff position.

But, over a month into free agency and not a star talent, at 32 years of age, what contender is in a position to sign Chiasson? The overwhelming majority of competitive teams not only have their rosters in place, but are so close, if not over the salary cap ceiling that even a league-minimum one-way contract would be impossible to fit in.

Two plausible options that come to mind would be the New York Islanders and Minnesota Wild. Although all the winger slots seem to be filled on Long Island, the team that has struggled to score goals could stand to add a dozen or so more as a depth option, and Chiasson’s style of play is in keeping with the preferences of Islanders’ GM Lou Lamoriello. Minnesota on the other hand is known to be looking to add another forward and while Chiasson of course doesn’t replace star winger Kevin Fiala, adding some punch to Minnesota’s bottom-six, especially after the departure of Nicolas Deslauriers, would make sense.

Another option for the Quebec native could be to head overseas. He had been connected to opportunities over in Switzerland back in late May, however his agent, Pat Morris, was sure to clarify that his client was looking for NHL opportunities, and was especially hoping for an opportunity to stay in Vancouver. But, Canucks GM Jim Rutherford indicated that they would not be making a decision on Chiasson until after their free agency wrapped up. Now that things are mostly quiet on the free agency front, especially with Vancouver, a return for Chiasson doesn’t look too good. However, not many PTO’s have been signed, and if that is indeed the route for the forward, then one might see his opportunities still upcoming.

Projected Contract:

Considering his track record both with on-ice production and previous deals, as well as where the offseason currently stands, Chiasson is almost certainly headed for another PTO. This option may be concerning for some players, and it may not be the most enjoyable position for Chiasson either, but he’s been here before and earned his keep when he has. Chiasson managed to sign an NHL contract after all three of those PTO’s, and what’s more is after the first, he went on to win a Stanley Cup, after his second, he was rewarded with a two-year, $4.3MM deal, and after his most recent, he found a place he appeared to feel very good about returning to in that of Vancouver

Whether he signs a PTO, then a contract, or receives a contract outright, it wouldn’t appear Chiasson will make any more than the league-minimum $750K salary for 2022-23 either. Not a perfect scenario, and far from the career-high $2.15MM salary he had with Edmonton from 2019-2021, an NHL contract would give Chiasson another year in the league and another chance at an early-in-free-agency deal like he signed with the Oilers in 2019.

 

Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

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As most of the hockey world takes a vacation, the World Juniors in Edmonton are providing a nice change of pace for fans looking to get a glimpse of their future stars. Anaheim Ducks forward Mason McTavish leads the tournament with six goals and ten points, sometimes looking like he is six or seven years older than the rest of his competition, while Luke Hughes continues to dominate as the tournament’s best defenseman. With the tournament coming to a close in just a few days, we’ll soon have to turn our attention back to the coming season.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag.

Last time, the mailbag was broken into two parts. The first examined the risky situation in Toronto’s crease, Pierre-Luc Dubois’ future in Winnipeg, and P.K. Subban’s continued free agency. The second focused on some offer sheet candidates, the front office in Philadelphia, and some often-discussed trade targets.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend.

Free Agent Profile: Victor Rask

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Considering their recent rise to relevancy, it seems like forever ago that the Minnesota Wild acquired center Victor Rask in a one-for-one deal with the Carolina Hurricanes in exchange for Nino Niederreiter. The since-lopsided trade finally met a sort of resolution this year when, after clearing waivers, Rask and the final year of his contract were dealt to the Seattle Kraken for future considerations.

Minnesota Wild forward Victor Rask (49) skates during warmup against the Edmonton Oilers at Rogers Place.It also seems like forever ago when Rask had a breakout season at the perfect time. In the last season of his entry-level contract, 2015-16, Rask had a 21-goal, 48-point season, setting career highs in both marks. It prompted then-general manager Ron Francis, who hilariously enough re-acquired Rask as the GM of the Kraken, to give the Swedish forward a six-year, $24MM contract. He maintained solid middle-six production until 2018-19 when Carolina traded him to Minnesota after amassing just a goal and six points in 26 games.

In Minnesota, Rask’s production never recovered. As the team got better (and more expensive), Rask was frequently healthy scratched, and then waived this season, reporting to the AHL’s Iowa Wild where he scored 10 points in 10 games. Seattle kept him in the NHL down the stretch, where he did just fine with eight points in 18 games.

Over the past two seasons, though, Rask has been solid defensively, though Minnesota’s system could carry the weight of that. He carried the bad reputation that comes with being overpaid into free agency, which certainly hasn’t worked in his favor, but the 29-year-old could still have the defensive acumen (and shot) to be an NHL forward. He’s had a shooting percentage of at least 13% over the past three seasons.

Stats

2021-22: 47 GP, 9-12-21, +4 rating, 2 PIMs, 58 shots, 53.3 CF%, 50.6 FO%, 12:12 ATOI
Career: 506 GP, 89-134-223, -22 rating, 86 PIMs, 848 shots, 51.4 CF%, 50.1 FO%, 14:58 ATOI

Potential Suitors

Rask is an ideal fourth-line center for teams looking to solidify their bottom sixes. He carries some scoring upside and serious defensive upside, and he can be used on the power play in a pinch. Teams without young players ready to take bottom-six spots, or teams looking for some utility help in a limited role, would be wise to make an offer to Rask to continue his NHL career.

Everyone seems to be waiting on the Winnipeg Jets to do at least something with their cap space, namely improving and adding depth to their bottom six filled with question marks and experience. Rask would be a solid upgrade over Dominic Toninato in the fourth-line center role, as Rask’s 21 points in just 47 games this year nearly match Toninato’s career total of 29 in 164 games. He’s got more special teams acumen than Toninato as well, making him a more attractive lineup option for coaches.

If Rask wants a bigger role, the obvious bottom two teams in the league next season still need NHL players. The Chicago Blackhawks especially don’t have many young forwards that can step in next season, and Rask could potentially find himself back in a top-nine role if he heads to the Windy City.

Projected Contract

Rask certainly won’t receive anything more than a $1MM, one-year contract, especially at this point in the offseason, but he could likely at least secure a one-way deal greater than the league minimum. The teams with a spot left for him likely wouldn’t have any trouble accommodating that.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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