Lightning Hoping To Sign Kucherov By End Of World Cup
Lightning GM Steve Yzerman is hopeful that he will be able to sign restricted free agent right winger Nikita Kucherov by the end of the World Cup, writes Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times.
Kucherov led Tampa Bay in scoring last season, picking up a career high 30 goals with 36 assists while seeing his ice time jump by over three minutes per night to an average of 18:13. He also led the team in postseason scoring with 19 points in just 17 games while logging just over 20 minutes per game.
CSKA Moscow of the KHL reportedly offered Kucherov a contract this offseason although it doesn’t sound like that option has received any sort of real consideration. His agent, Scott Greenspun, has declined to publicly comment on negotiations.
Kucherov is coming off of his entry level deal that saw him earn an NHL salary of just $700K last season. There’s no doubt that he will be in line for a major raise, potentially as high as ten times that amount depending on how long the contract is for.
Currently, Tampa Bay has just shy of $6.3MM in cap space according to Cap Friendly. However, not only do they have to re-sign Kucherov, defenseman Nikita Nesterov is also in need of a new deal. When you factor in that teams like to not spend right to the cap at the beginning of the year to give themselves some wiggle room, it seems likely that a trade will need to happen at some point.
However, Yzerman doesn’t believe that a trade is mandatory before the start of the season. When Smith asked if both RFA’s could be signed without making a trade, his response was simply, “No question”. For that to work, the Lightning may have to settle for getting a bridge deal done with Kucherov although Ryan Callahan’s injury that will carry over into November can also provide a short-term solution via LTIR.
Further creating complications for Yzerman is the pending RFA status of Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat, and Jonathan Drouin following the 2016-17 season. All three of those will also be primed for significant raises and the team already has roughly $55MM in cap hits for 2017-18. While Yzerman may believe that a trade isn’t necessary right away, it certainly looks like they will need to move some players (and money) out sooner rather than later.
Snapshots: Seguin, Kucherov, Lundqvist
Tyler Seguin has tallied better than a point-per-game in each of the last three seasons as the Stars #1 center and has also totaled 107 goals during that time. It would seem foolhardy to move the skilled pivot to any other position but Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News thinks the idea might have some merit.
In a recent chat, Heika fielded a question on Seguin and suggested he will be watching the six-year veteran to see how he plays at RW for Team Canada at the World Cup. With 11 natural pivots on the Canadian roster, several centers obviously will be forced into duty on the wing and it appears Seguin will be among those. Heika feels if Seguin performs well on the wing it might prompt the Stars to move him off the center position and elevate Cody Eakin into a more prominent role.
Eakin scored 16 goals and 35 points in 82 games for the Stars in 2015-16, while averaging nearly 16 1/2 minutes of ice time per contest. It was the third straight campaign Eakin recorded at least 16 goals and 35 points. Jason Spezza, fresh off a 33-goal, 63-point performance, is also likely slated to fill a slot on the top two lines giving the Stars plenty of depth at the center position.
It’s worth noting that Dallas also boasts plenty of offensive talent elsewhere among the forward group, meaning the club has no real need to move Seguin to the wing. The Stars recently inked Jiri Hudler to a one-year deal and he will join Jamie Benn, Patrick Sharp, Ales Hemsky, Valeri Nichushkin and Mattias Janmark in giving Dallas all kinds of options on the wing. Time will tell, of course, but the ability to role out Seguin, Spezza and Eakin, in that order, gives the Stars a strong group of pivots and one few teams can match in terms of talent. It simply wouldn’t make much sense to break that unit up.
Elsewhere in the NHL:
- Even though RFA RW Nikita Kucherov remains unsigned, Tampa Bay GM Steve Yzerman remains confident a deal will get done prior to the 2016-17 season kicking off, as Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times writes. There is no understating how critical Kucherov is to the success of the Lightning, particularly given how good he has been in the playoffs. Kucherov has contributed 21 goals and 41 points in 43 postseason games over the last two seasons, helping the Lightning to a Stanley Cup Finals berth in 2014-15 and an Eastern Conference Finals appearance this season. He’s also posted seasons of 66 and 65 points over the last two regular seasons. The Lightning are in a bit of a pinch in terms of the salary cap with just less than $6.3MM in space remaining and only 12 forwards, six defensemen and two goalies under contract. Smith points out that Filip Forsberg and Vladimir Tarasenko, two players he identifies as possible comparable cases, each signed deals recently that come with annual cap charges of $6MM and $7.5MM respectively. Given the situation, it’s plausible the Lightning will have to make a trade to clear some cap space if that’s the range Kucherov is looking to land in, and Smith singled out Ben Bishop, Valtteri Filppula and Jason Garrison as players the team could look to move if necessary.
- Despite stories – including this one which is in Swedish, and this one – suggesting New York Rangers superstar goalie Henrik Lundqvist had sustained an injury while golfing, Larry Brooks of the New York Post reassures the team’s fans that “the King” is just fine. Brooks tweet does indicate that Lundqvist took a puck to the ribs and is “sore” but it’s nothing to be concerned about. Of course any rumor regarding Lundqvist’s health is sure to grab the attention of Rangers fans everywhere. “Hank,” has been the backbone of the team since he debuted all the way back in the 2005-06 season and the five-time Vezina finalist gives the Blueshirts a chance to compete every year. If he were to miss significant time due to injury, the Rangers playoff chances would drop considerably.
Snapshots: Bishop, Burns, Howden
Barring the unexpected, Ben Bishop will enter the 2016-17 season as the starting goalie for the Tampa Bay Lightning. After leading the NHL in GAA (2.06) and finishing second in Vezina Trophy voting, Bishop has established himself as one of the league’s top net minders and is a key reason the Lightning will be among a small handful of teams expected to challenge Pittsburgh for Eastern Conference supremacy. But as he enters the final year of a contract, which comes with an AAV of $5.9MM, Bishop’s time in Tampa may be nearing its end, as Mike Halford of Pro Hockey Talk explains.
At 29 and with presumably several years of elite-level play ahead of him, Bishop will be in a position to command a significant multiyear deal next summer. The Lightning already have $55MM tied up in their 2017-18 salary cap – according to Cap Friendly – and will need to re-sign pending restricted free agents Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat and Jonathan Drouin, none of whom will come cheaply. Additionally, that figure does not yet account for the eventual cap charge of Nikita Kucherov, who is still a RFA and is in line for a nice payday. Chances are Tampa simply won’t be in a position to offer Bishop what he can command elsewhere.
On top of that, as Halford noted, the Lightning were proactive and inked backup goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy to a three-year extension which goes into effect in time for the 2017-18 campaign after Bishop’s contract ends. Vasilevskiy is one of the top young goalie prospects in the NHL and should be ready to assume a larger role. This gives the Lightning a fair amount of protection should they reconcile themselves to the likelihood of Bishop’s departure.
Halford wonders if Tampa would consider dealing Bishop prior to the trade deadline but points out that as long as GM Steve Yzerman feels the team’s chances of contending are better with Bishop than without, he is more likely to hang onto the goalie. He goes on to mention Calgary and Dallas as potential suitors, should the Lightning conclude moving Bishop is the best course of action. Both of those teams were linked to Bishop this summer.
Elsewhere in the NHL:
- Assuming he plays out the season without signing an extension, Brent Burns will be one of the most sought after free agents on the market next summer as an elite, puck-moving blue liner who can produce points. Joey Alfieri, who writes for Pro Hockey Talk, considered what Burns’ next contract might look like, suggesting Dustin Byfuglien‘s recent extension with Winnipeg as a fair comparable. Like Byfuglien, Burns is 31-years-old and both men are among the most dynamic offensive defensemen in the game today. Byfuglien inked a five-year pact worth $38MM with Winnipeg during the 2015-16 campaign. The Byfuglien comparable seems reasonable but it’s likely Burns can get more, particularly if he reaches the open market. The San Jose Sharks defender has tallied 44 goals and 135 points over the last two seasons. Byfuglien, on the other hand, has recorded 37 goals and 98 points. San Jose tends to tread carefully when it comes to the contract length for aging players – think the matching three-year deals for Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton – and they promote a willingness among many of their players to take fewer dollars from the Sharks than they could secure otherwise in free agency. Re-signing Burns will surely be a top priority for the Sharks and it will be interesting to see if the two sides can get something done.
- Quinton Howden, who signed a one-year, two-way contract with the Winnipeg Jets on July 1st, is thrilled to have the chance to play for his hometown team, as Jason Bell of the Winnipeg Free Press writes. Howden was a first-round pick of the Panthers in 2010 and played the previous three seasons with the Florida, tallying 10 goals and 17 points in 92 games. Howden, who grew up in Oakbank and played his junior hockey with the Moose Jaw Warriors, is expected to compete with several others for one of three or four forward spots up front for the Jets.
Atlantic Division: Remaining RFAs
We are less than a month away from the start of the World Cup and training camps. However, there are still 15 restricted free agents remaining, and many of them are not who you would expect to be unsigned at this point. Two NHL teams’ leading scorers, four top-four defensemen, and several other high quality players are still looking for new deals.
Let’s continue our break down of the remaining RFAs by taking a look at the Atlantic Division:
Buffalo Sabres – $8.15MM in cap space, according to Cap Friendly – Like the Anaheim Ducks, the Sabres have two RFAs remaining; also like the Ducks, it’s their third line center and number one defenseman. Zemgus Girgensons and Rasmus Ristolainen were the Sabres’ first round picks in 2012 and 2013 respectively. Ristolainen lead all Sabres defensemen with 41 points (good for fourth in team scoring) and averaged nearly three more minutes of ice time per game than the next skater. Over his three-year career he has been counted on to be an all-situation defender, starting more than 57% of his shifts in the defensive zone and still leading all Sabres defensemen in scoring over the last two seasons. The Sabres will want to lock him up long-term.
Meanwhile, Girgensons had something of a down year in 2015-16, dropping from 30 points to 18 despite playing 10 more games. Expect a one-year contract in the $1MM range as he looks to rebound.
Tampa Bay Lightning – $6.59MM in cap space, according to Cap Friendly – Lightning GM Steve Yzerman managed to re-sign Steven Stamkos and extend Victor Hedman, but has yet to sign their leading scorer from last season: Nikita Kucherov. Kucherov has put up seasons of 65 and 66 points and will be looking for a Filip Forsberg-type contract. Forsberg also was coming off back-to-back mid-60 point seasons and signed long-term in Nashville for six years at $6MM per. While the Lightning could likely make that salary work this season, it’s next summer that has to be looming large for Yzerman. The other two members of the Triplet Line, Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat, and starting goalie Ben Bishop all need to be re-signed, though Bishop figures to be traded to avoid losing him for nothing in the expansion draft.
The Lightning also have defenseman Nikita Nesterov to sign. The young depth defenseman will be looking for a bigger role after the team bought out Matt Carle in June. He’ll likely sign for a short “show-me” contract to prove he can continue to be a regular on a Cup contending team.
You can read our review of the Pacific Division RFAs here.
Roster Crunch: Atlantic Division
Over the past few days, we’ve looked at the final few spots on the roster for both the Pacific and Central divisions. This time, we’ll turn our attention to the East starting with the Atlantic. This division will be in turmoil over the next few years, with clubs like the Buffalo Sabres and Toronto Maple Leafs going through slow, deliberate rebuilds, and perennial contending squads like the Detroit Red Wings finally starting to slow down.
Florida Panthers – While the Panthers have pretty much accomplished everything they set out to do this off-season – improving the blueline with Keith Yandle and Jason Demers, getting a capable replacement for Roberto Luongo in James Reimer, and locking up their young core – they failed in one, big $5.5MM way. Dave Bolland failed his physical and therefor couldn’t be bought out. He’ll try to prove he deserves some playing time this season, but may find himself buried in the AHL to make room for Jared McCann, the prize Florida received when they dealt Erik Gudbranson to the Canucks.
Snapshots: Unsigned Restricted Free Agents, Trouba, Hudler
The list of Restricted Free Agents has some serious star power on it, despite the calendar turning to August. Between Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Hampus Lindholm, Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Kucherov, and Jacob Trouba, there are a handful of elite franchise building blocks without a contract. If you’re keeping count at home, that’s two legit number one defenseman, a possible number one in Trouba, and three high-end first line forwards. Quality players like Ryan Strome and Cody Ceci are also waiting to get contracts, having passed on their qualifying offers.
Here are some other snapshots from around the hockey world:
- On That’s Hockey, TSN’s Gary Lawless reported that things are very quiet between Trouba and the Winnipeg Jets, saying the two sides are far apart on “everything… they’re apart on term, they’re apart on money, they’re apart on usage”. Trouba finds himself behind Dustin Byfuglien and Tyler Myers on the right side, and according to Lawless he feels he should be playing with one of the team’s top defenders. A trade involving Trouba is unlikely according to Lawless.
- Also on TSN, Travis Yost made a strong case for UFA winger Jiri Hudler, arguing that while he’s past his prime scoring days, Hudler still has a very positive effect on his teammates. Hudler raises his team’s shooting percentage by 2.44 per cent when he’s on the ice. That ranks fourth in the NHL since 2010, behind superstars Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos, and the now-retired Martin St. Louis. We ranked Hudler 18th on our Top 50 Free Agents list back in June, and estimated a four-year, $16MM contract. Look for him to sign a much less expensive one-year pact with a goal-hungry team to prove he’s still got it.
Calculating Kucherov’s Potential Value As RFA
Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov is perhaps the best player still without a contract for 2016-17. Of course as a RFA without arbitration rights and given there is practically no chance another team would dare an offer sheet, Kucherov has almost no leverage to use in negotiations for a new deal. Regardless, Kucherov is going to get a significant raise over the modest $700K he earned in salary this year. That might not bode too well for Tampa, who has around $6.5MM in cap space with Kucherov and D Nikita Nestorov still to re-sign. Still, despite the relative lack of apparent progress, Lightning GM Steve Yzerman is quite confident a deal with Kucherov will get done, as Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times writes.
Naturally, knowing a deal will get done and knowing what that done deal will look like are two very different things. Smith speculates that the six-year, $36MM ($6MM AAV) contract Filip Forsberg signed with Nashville serves as a good comparable.
Like Kucherov, Forsberg was coming off his ELC when he agreed to his new pact. In terms of offensive production, there are strong similarities between the two. Forsberg has averaged 0.33 Goals/Game and 0.73 Pts/Game during his 182-game NHL career. Kucherov counters with nearly identical scoring rates of 0.32 Goals/Game and 0.71 Pts/Game over 211 games. Forsberg’s deal certainly would seem to represent a fair comparable.
Yzerman is as patient as they come in his role as GM and he will only make a deal if he feels it fits into the club’s salary structure. Not long ago it seemed all but certain that Steven Stamkos would sign a contract worth close to $10MM annually, whether with Tampa or another club, as that is the going rate for elite players. Yet Yzerman sold Stamkos on his long-term vision for the program and convinced the star sniper to take a more palatable figure for the team.
After getting Stamkos’ name on the dotted line, Yzerman moved to sign franchise defenseman Victor Hedman a year before he would have hit free agency. Ultimately, Hedman and the Lightning agreed to an eight-year, $63MM deal many in the industry feel is a steal for a player of his caliber.
Yzerman might not be the perfect GM (the Ryan Callahan contract already looks like it’s going to be an anchor) but he has done a tremendous job getting most of his own guys to re-sign for fair-market value or less, allowing enough space to get his RFA’s done.
That being said, Kucherov’s representation might look elsewhere for comparable contracts to base their argument on. One such deal is the eight-year, $60MM pact Vladimir Tarasenko obtained from the St. Louis Blues earlier this year. If we again take into account relative offensive production over the last three seasons, Kucherov matches up fairly well with Tarasenko. The Blues winger is slightly more productive offensively, both in the goal scoring (0.37 goals-per-game) and points departments (0.75 points-per-game). But the difference is small enough that Kucherov’s camp could reasonably push for a contract somewhat closer to Tarasenko’s in AAV.
On the other side of the coin, Mike Hoffman, who recently inked a four-year extension with Ottawa worth $20.75MM ($5.1875MM AAV) could also be used as a marker for Kucherov’s value. Hoffman comes up just shy in terms of points-per-game (0.68) but is essentially equal as a goal-scorer based on rates. Hoffman has averaged 0.36 goals-per-game over the last two seasons while Kucherov has recorded 0.37 per, over the same time frame.
At the end of the day, the Forsberg contract is likely going to be close to what the two sides end up agreeing upon. Kucherov has outproduced Hoffman enough to justify an AAV higher than $5.1875MM. And while Kucherov isn’t too far off from Tarasenko offensively, the Blues winger is the more electric goal scorer and goals pay better than assists. Those factors combined with Yzerman’s ability to make deals on his terms point to the likelihood of something in the range of $6MM annually.
Are Offer Sheets A Thing Of The Past?
This summer’s restricted free agent (RFA) list is quite impressive, with nine 20-goal scorers and 13 players who scored more than 40 points last season. Forwards Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau, Nikita Kucherov, Marcus Johansson, and Mike Hoffman headline the forwards; while Hampus Lindholm, Tyson Barrie, Rasmus Ristolainen, Danny DeKeyser, and Jacob Trouba are the top defensemen. Detroit’s Petr Mrazek is the only big-name RFA goalie remaining. Most of the above players are eligible for offer sheets.
According to Elliotte Friedman, compensation for offer sheets is as follows:
- Less than $1.239MM (average annual value of contract) – Nothing;
- $1.239-$1.878MM – Third-round pick;
- $1.878-$3.755MM – Second-round pick;
- $3.755-$5.633MM – First and third-round picks;
- $5.633-$7.510MM – First, second and third-round picks;
- $7.510-$9.388MM – Two first, a second and third-round picks;
- Over $9.388MM – Four first-round picks.
With this in mind, teams could target rival teams top young players, with both outcomes having their benefits to the aggressive team: either they acquire a good young player for only picks, or they mess up a rival’s salary cap by inflating the player’s salary.
The threat of an offer sheet was evident last summer, with the Blackhawks trading Brandon Saad to the Blue Jackets and the Bruins trading Dougie Hamilton to the Flames. Both players were pending RFAs and in line for a big raise before being shipped out to prevent their teams from being subjected to an offer sheet. However, this summer has been the complete opposite, with teams taking their time to sign the above-mentioned stars, apparently not overly worried about offer sheets.
Why could that be?
The last time an NHL team successfully acquired a player via an offer sheet was in 2007. Then-Oilers-GM Kevin Lowe signed Anaheim Ducks LW Dustin Penner to a 4-year, $21.5MM contract. The Ducks did not match, and the Oilers forked over their first three rounds of draft picks in 2008. Penner enjoyed varying degrees of success in three-and-a-half seasons in Edmonton before being traded to Los Angeles where he won a Stanley Cup. The Penner offer sheet is most fondly remembered by then-Ducks-GM Brian Burke and Lowe’s escalating war of words which nearly lead to a fist-fight in a rented barn in Lake Placid. Commissioner Gary Bettman was forced to have a conference call with the two GMs to get them to stop.
It’s perhaps this sort of reaction that prevents GMs from making offer sheets. Earlier this summer, ESPN and TSN reporter Pierre LeBrun quoted an unnamed GM as threatening opposing GMs with an offer sheet per year for the next ten years as retribution for a potential offer sheet. There appears to be an unspoken agreement between GMs to leave RFAs alone. There hasn’t been an offer sheet tendered since 2013 when Colorado matched Calgary’s contract with Ryan O’Reilly, saving the Flames from an embarrassing and costly mistake.
So despite several fan bases calling for offer sheets, it seems unlikely that any players will be switching sweaters this summer because of one.
RFAs Still Waiting On Contracts
After a busy few days watching free agent contracts be handed out like candy, and millions of dollars spent like pennies, there are still some key restricted free agents out there negotiating their next contracts. Vincent Trocheck, Filip Forsberg and Seth Jones have already received deals eclipsing $25MM, locking them in long before they even get a sniff of unrestricted free agency. Here are a few more names still waiting on deals:
- Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan of the Flames still are without deals, though reports indicate they are both open to signing long-term with Calgary and want to play with each other for “the next ten years”. The pair combined for 57 goals and 141 points last season, completed before either turned 23.
- The Ducks’ Hampus Lindholm is still without a contract, as discussed earlier today. The 22-year old is considered one of the best young defensemen in the league, and the team would like to lock him up to a similar term as partner Sami Vatanen, who received a four-year deal last month.
- After re-signing Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman and Andrei Vasilevskiy to what seem like team-friendly deals, GM Steve Yzerman still has work to do in the form of Nikita Kucherov, the team’s young sniper. Reports are that the two sides are working on a deal, but Yzerman has to be careful as the team is inching closer and closer to the salary cap with Kucherov and three other players still to sign.
- After acquiring Taylor Hall in a blockbuster deal, the Devils still have another star winger to get under contract in the form of Kyle Palmieri. The 25-year old broke out last season with 30 goals, and will be looking to cash in on his sudden performance. The Devils have over $17MM in cap space even after bringing back Devante Smith-Pelly and signing Ben Lovejoy and Vernon Fiddler.
For the entire list of RFA players, and the projected depth charts for each team head to Roster Resource and check out their detailed info.
Atlantic Notes: Bruins, Lightning, Maple Leafs, Red Wings
Though Puck Daddy’s Greg Wyshynski was initially surprised by David Backes signing in Boston, further review made it understandable. Backes adds another physical, goal scoring center to a team that already includes David Krejci and Patrice Bergeron. Wyshynski does warn that Backes arrives with a lot of miles and although he’s only missed 16 games since 2008, his style of play makes the five-year deal somewhat risky near the end of the contract. Regardless, the Bruins beefed up down the middle and have a more favorable look against the best teams in the division–and conference.
Other notes from the Atlantic:
- Lightning general manager Steve Yzerman continues his mastery of signing the team’s high end talent and Tampa Times writer Joe Smith reports that Nikita Kucherov should be the next name for Yzerman to cross off his list. Smith writes that Yzerman is optimistic a deal will get done and predicts that Kucherov could expect Filip Forsberg numbers in the range of a six-year, $36MM deal. But if there’s anything to be seen with Yzerman, it’s that he’s become a master of negotiations. Between Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman taking what was considered significantly less money to stay in Tampa, it should be expected that Kucherov will possibly take less to stay with a team that Yzerman continues to build into an Eastern Conference force.
- The Maple Leafs were very quiet with the exception of signing Matt Martin to a four-year, $10MM deal Friday. TSN’s Kristen Shilton writes that Leafs general manager Lou Lamoriello felt that Martin filled a need for the rebuilding organization. The move was also precipitated by bench boss Mike Babcock wanting more toughness on the roster. The Toronto Sun’s Lance Hornsby writes that while the team didn’t come out and say it, Martin’s role will be that of a bodyguard for #1 overall pick Auston Matthews, and other Leaf youngsters. Lamoriello did admit that the signing was one to make his younger players feel “freer” on the ice.
- While the Red Wings inked Frans Nielsen, Thomas Vanek and Steve Ott, their moves weren’t applauded by everyone. The Detroit News’ Gregg Krupa wonders if general manager Ken Holland’s magic touch is beginning to wear off, and writes that the Wings’ top man shouldn’t be finished with his offseason moves quite yet. Colleague Bob Wojnowski agrees, adding that the Wings are a team “scrambling to find their way” and along with Krupa, opines that that the fanbase is growing restless with Holland’s loyalty to players like Darren Helm, who notched a five-year, $19.5MM deal before free agency opened. Craig Hagerman goes even further, writing that the Wings were one of three teams that actually got worse following Friday’s free agent frenzy. While he lauds the Nielsen signing, he questions the re-signing of Helm (registering a 30 point season twice in his career), Ott (no goals last season), and Vanek (bought out for underachieving).