Kucherov Will Be Next To Receive McDavid-Like Money
With the eight-year, $100MM extension of Edmonton Oilers’ Connor McDavid already in the rearview mirror, many people have been speculating on the next big contract in the NHL. There are some who are looking at teammate Leon Draisaitl to break the bank, others at Auston Matthews in Toronto. Nashville’s Ryan Johansen just picked up $8MM per year, while Washington Evgeny Kuznetsov picked up $7.8. However, Larry Brooks of the New York Post, points the finger at Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov who should be getting a huge extension in two years.
Kucherov is going into his second season of a three-year deal where he will be making $4.76MM, but when his contract is up in two years, expect there to be a major payday. The big-scoring winger will be just hitting his prime at age 26 when his contract is up and Tampa Bay’s Steve Yzerman will have a tough time from keeping Kucherov’s next contract from doubling, according to Brooks.
The 24-year-old winger took another major step this year, putting up career highs in both goals and assists, scoring 40 goals and 45 assists for 85 points. Kucherov has come a long way in just a short time. Originally drafted as a second round pick in 2011, he stayed in Moscow for one year before coming over and playing junior hockey, before finally reaching the AHL in 2013-14 season. After 17 games, he was quickly promoted to Tampa Bay where he put up nine goals and nine assists in 51 games, but broke out the following year. He put up consistent numbers the next two years, combining for 58 goals and 72 assists, before taking the next step this past year.
While his 30 goals and 66 points in the 2015-16 season was still outstanding, Kucherov had little negotiating room when he hammered out this three-year deal. According to Brooks, Kucherov did not threaten to return to the KHL and had little recourse but to accept the three-year deal offered to him as a restricted free agent without arbitration rights. However, everything will change in two years when he can dangle his unrestricted free agency tag. His improved performance should only increase his pricetag. Add in the fact that Kucherov went out and got a new agent in Daniel Milstein of Gold Star Sports and expect that Kucherov should break the bank unless Yzerman can prove that he can lock up another great player to a team-friendly deal.
Expansion Primer: Tampa Bay Lightning
We’re continuing to break down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, coming up next week: which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.
Steve Yzerman fired the first shot in the pre-expansion draft trade market by acquiring Mikhail Sergachev from Montreal for Jonathan Drouin, a move that gave the Lightning flexibility both with the cap and their expansion protection list. It also filled a need with the Bolts on defense. With that in mind, it makes Yzerman and the Lightning’s decisions slightly easier as to who to protect and who to expose. But there are still some tough choices to make.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards: Steven Stamkos (NMC), Ryan Callahan (NMC), Nikita Kucherov, Alex Killorn, Vladislav Namestnikov, J.T. Brown, Erik Condra, Cedric Paquette, Ondrej Palat (RFA), Tyler Johnson
Defensemen: Victor Hedman (NMC), Jason Garrison, Anton Stralman, Braydon Coburn, Andrej Sustr (RFA), Slater Koekkoek, Jake Dotchin
Goaltender: Andrei Vasilevskiy, Kristers Gudlevskis (RFA)
Notable Exemptions
Mikhail Sergachev, Brett Howden
Key Decisions
Unloading Drouin certainly helped from a financial and expansion list aspect. This makes it somewhat easier for forwards to put on the protected list.
Ondrej Palat and Alex Killorn are both choices that benefitted from Drouin being moved. Killorn netted 19 goals while Palat will continue to get better. Stamkos and Callahan both have NMCs. Despite fighting injury and not matching his production from 2014-15, Johnson is too good of a talent to leave exposed.
It’s on defense where tougher decisions need to be made, and it will come down to three players. Hedman and Stralman will both be protected, Hedman because he has a no-movement clause and Stralman is key to the Lightning blueline. Jason Garrison and Braydon Coburn are both carrying heavier hits for the cap and will most likely be left alone when they’re exposed. Garrison could hypothetically be taken with his deal ending at the conclusion of the 2017-18 season, but the $4.6MM hit would probably scare Vegas away.
That leaves three choices to protect: Andrej Sustr, Jake Dotchin, and Slater Koekkoek. Sustr is a restricted free agent and won’t be able to command much in the way of money after having a down year. That doesn’t make him exempt from being exposed. If anything, seeing his numbers drop with a number of other options pounding on the door for the big club could make him the odd man out. However, he’s still an economical option and any leverage he had took a hit with the acquisition of Sergachev, who if scouting is correct, should find time on the Tampa blueline next season. But the problem with protecting Sustr is that Tampa would risk losing two young, and talented defensemen for nothing. In the same breath, would the Bolts want to possibly lose a steady defenseman who is only 26?
That leads to Dotchin and Koekkoek. Dotchin just turned 23, and registered 11 points in 35 games this season. The problem is, as Lightning blog Raw Charge pointed out, his sample size was limited compared to Koekkoek while being paired with Hedman. The 23-year-old Koekkoek logged 41 games over the past two seasons, but played strong for AHL affiliate Syracuse during the Calder Cup playoffs. Picking between them is essentially splitting hairs. Koekkoek appears to have the higher ceiling, and plays a cleaner game than Dotchin. Though they play different games, Yzerman might prefer a more disciplined, puck moving defenseman when choosing who to protect. At the same time, Dotchin plays a physical game, and can move the puck as well. He’s not afraid to muck it up, and provides a presence that protects his teammates on the ice–while still contributing on the score sheet. As Tampa Bay Times beat writer Joe Smith wrote, Dotchin has stood out to management, especially in the NHL and AHL during Syracuse’s Calder Cup Final run.
With two younger defensive prospects and after having a less than stellar season, predict Sustr to be exposed and Koekkoek protected. Don’t be surprised, as many others have written, if Yzerman pulls something off to keep all of his young defensemen so Dotchin remains in the fold.
Projected Protection List
F – Steven Stamkos (NMC)
F – Ryan Callahan (NMC)
F – Tyler Johnson (RFA)
F – Nikita Kucherov
F – Vladislav Namestnikov
F – Alex Killorn
F – Ondrej Palat (RFA)
D – Victor Hedman (NMC)
D – Anton Stralman
D –Slater Koekkoek (RFA)
Vasilevskiy is truly the only option to protect as 24-year-old netminder Kristers Gudlevskis is unlikely to be taken with other options presumably available from other teams. Of the decisions, it seems to be the least of Tampa’s worries.
The Lightning, despite missing the playoffs and sustaining injuries to one key player after another, still have a strong lineup that will absolutely compete next season. Peddling Drouin off certainly helped matters, but the third player to protect defensively is a tough decision to make. At the end of the day, though, Yzerman has shown skills deft enough to take a challenging situation and somehow make it work out. Don’t be surprised if he finds a way to do it again.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Nikita Gusev Does Not Plan To Leave KHL For Lightning
Amidst the signing of Vadim Shipachyov with the Vegas Golden Knights and rumors of Ilya Kovalchuk and Evgeni Dadonov hoping to make the move to the NHL as well, reigning KHL champion SKA St. Petersburg can at least take some solace in the fact that at least one of their star players would like to return. According to the Tampa Bay Times’ Joe Smith, Tampa Bay Lightning prospect Nikita Gusev has no plans to jump ship to North America. A current free agent, Gusev instead hopes to re-sign with SKA.
Despite the ample attention that 28-year-old Dadonov is getting from NHL team right now, it was actually the 24-year-old Gusev who finished third on the team in scoring this season behind Shipachyov and Kovalchuk. Gusev scored 71 points in 57 games to Dadonov’s 66 point in 53 games, even narrowly edging him out in points per game. The 2012 seventh-rounder additionally led the team in playoff scoring with seven goals and 16 assists in 18 postseason games en route to a title. At 5’11” and 181-lbs., Gusev is quick and elusive and possesses top end puck-handling skills. He also has a penchant for play-making, finishing third overall in the KHL with 47 assists in 2016-17.
Gusev is certaintly a promising player, but doesn’t appear to be ready to follow in Nikita Kucherov‘s footsteps and take his talents to Tampa and to the best league in the world. Kucherov committed to the Lightning and to the NHL at age 20 and has developed into one of the most dangerous scorers in the world. However, Kucherov also never had the impact on a KHL team that Gusev has had. With Shipachyov, Kovalchuk, and Dadonov all likely gone, Gusev knows that if he puts off on any NHL aspirations and doesn’t join a crowded Tampa forward group, he has the chance to be the leader of SKA and knows the fame (and payday) that would bring. So, for now, Lightning fans will have to wait on adding yet another elite Russian weapon.
Snapshots: Bieksa, Stamkos, Pyatt
Anaheim defenseman Kevin Bieksa is not expected to take the ice in Game 2 against Edmonton. Bieksa had not been logging major minutes lately, averaging just over 16 minutes on the backend, good for 6th best on his squad. However, his nasty, physical edge was felt everytime he took the ice. The defenseman had an awkward looking collision early in Wednesday’s game with teammate Shea Theodore. He left the game, briefly returned, and exited again for good. Further information is unknown at this time.
Bieksa is perhaps best remembered for being a pivotal part of the defense that led the Vancouver Canucks to Game 7 of a Stanley Cup Final in 2010-11. He has played 82 career NHL playoff games, with a solid 30 points over that span. He had already potted 4 assists for the Ducks through 5 games. Replacing such a force will be difficult for Anaheim, especially since they struggled to deter the high-flying Edmonton forwards from creating offense and crashing the net. Sami Vatanen would be a safe bet to re-enter the lineup in his place, in an attempt to recoup some of that experience.
- Steven Stamkos should be ready to go at the beginning of next season for the Tampa Bay Lightning. He had undergone intensive surgery on his knee, after tearing his meniscus. Although his return was expected, the reassuring news should bring a sigh of relief for Bolts’ fans. Stamkos’ absence was sorely felt this season as his squad was kept afloat largely due to the individual efforts of Nikita Kucherov and Victor Hedman. Scoring depth was harder to come by and the team was noticeably less effective at line-matching. Stamkos is the sort of offensive superstar that is nearly impossible to replace, even with a roster that had been as well constructed as GM Steve Yzerman‘s. Stamkos has won two Maurice “Rocket” Richard trophies for top goal scorer in a season, including an absurd 60 goals in 2011-12. He had posted 9 goals and 20 points through 17 games this season before succumbing to injury.
- Tom Pyatt did not play in Game 1 between the Senators and Rangers. The Ottawa forward was hopeful to be slotted in the lineup tonight, but was a late scratch. Pyatt had also missed the deciding Game 6 against Boston in the first round. The undersized fourth-liner had been held pointless through 4 games, and posted a -2. Although his veteran status and feistiness would have been welcome attributes in what is sure to be a tough series, his contributions this season were minimal. His advanced stats show that he is a net negative in terms of scoring opportunities and shots (CF% of 43.6), and his versatility isn’t even much of a bonus, as he only took 49 draws this season, losing the bulk of them.
Snapshots: Kucherov, Montgomery, Drug Testing
Nikita Kucherov took another step forward for the Tampa Bay Lightning this season after being given a three-year deal, but he can’t say the same for some of his teammates. In a translated interview with Pavel Lysenkov of Sovietsky Sport (h/t Sergey Demidov of NHL.com) Kucherov made it clear that not all his teammates were working hard enough this year.
…some guys overstayed in team. They’ve got their money and stopped working. They knew there’s no competition for their positions and organization is not going to take someone else. They played not really well this year—you can see it in their stats and way of play.
Kucherov’s agent Dan Milstein got in contact with Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times to explain the comments, saying that the translation is accurate and that he doesn’t feel like every player is “on board to win.” His agent also told Smith that Kucherov hopes to play his entire career for Tampa Bay “like his GM”—Steve Yzerman famously spent his entire career with the Detroit Red Wings before moving into management.
- Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet confirmed that Jim Montgomery interviewed in Florida for the vacant Panthers head coach position, but that the team will continue to look at all options before making a decision. Montgomery is coming off a national championship with the University of Denver, and has been rumored for all of the openings around the league this spring. The former NHL journeyman is a lock for a professional head coaching job eventually, and at just 47 years old has a long career still ahead of him in the industry.
- In the newest article from Rick Westhead of TSN, he reports that the league increased their screening for both marijuana and cocaine this year, testing all 2,300 samples for recreational drugs. The NHL doesn’t suspend players who test positive for recreational drugs, but does monitor it and enroll players in substance abuse programs if deemed necessary. While the increase in screening—up from just 800 of the samples in 2015—shows the leagues increasing awareness of a rising problem among NHL players. Westhead cites two different criminal offenses from the past that involved cocaine, and rumors have persisted for years about the drug being used throughout the league. The testing will likely continue next season, with perhaps even more steps being taken to squash the problem if it indeed continued this season.
Eastern Notes: Yzerman, Tavares, Hellberg
The Tampa Bay Lightning might be currently watching the playoffs rather than playing in them, but Steve Yzerman is already working on his offseason plans. The GM has said his top priority this season is to lock up three core restricted free agents in Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson and Jonathan Drouin, which is expected to be quite a challenge, considering how up against the salary cap the Lightning are this offseason.
Tampa Bay Times writer Joe Smith suggests Yzerman might have trouble signing all three of them and acquire a top-four defenseman they desperately need and acquire a goaltender they need at the same time. That doesn’t include Victor Hedman‘s $7.875MM extension that kicks in (and almost doubles) next year and the future contract they will have to negotiate with Nikita Kucherov in two years, which is likely to be huge.
Yzerman successfully helped Tampa Bay’s cap situation at the trade deadline when he moved the contracts of Ben Bishop ($4.76MM), Brian Boyle ($2MM) and Valtteri Filppula ($5MM). While all three were important to the Lightning, getting their cap numbers off their books only increased their chances of resigning the trio of young stars.
The scribe writes the Lightning should focus their efforts on resigning both Palat and Johnson who are integral to the team’s success and even went on to suggest that the team should consider trading the 22-year old Drouin, who enjoyed a breakout campaign this year. The thought being that Drouin may have the most trade value of the three and might net them a nice haul right before the 2017 NHL draft.
Smith also suggested other possibilities including looking to the Las Vegas Golden Knights, which has heavily scouted Tampa Bay in the last couple of months, as an option to move a player like Johnson as there is a potential replacement for him in rookie Brayden Point.
All said and done, Yzerman has his work cut out for him this offseason.
Other notes:
- The New York Islanders, also sitting home during the playoffs, need to focus their attention on re-signing star player John Tavares. The belief is that the Islanders naming Doug Weight the permanent coach was critical to get the 26-year old star to return. Weight, who served as interim coach since January, produced a successful second half for the Islanders as he posted the second-best NHL record during that time. Unfortunately, they fell short of reaching the playoffs, but it is believed that Weight’s return will only help in Tavares opting to return. Tavares, who led the team with 28 goals and 38 assists for 66 points, is in line for a potential 8-year, $100MM extension this summer. A free agent defection would be crippling to the Islanders’ franchise.
- The New York Rangers have recalled goaltender Magnus Hellberg for Game 3 of their playoff game with the Canadiens today. He will serve only as an emergency backup as the Hartford Wolf Pack just finished their regular season.
Minor Transactions: 4/1/2017
There may be just a little more than a week remaining in the NHL regular season, but teams are still making roster moves. We’ll track all of the days minor league call-ups and reassignments in this post.
- Philadelphia Flyers GM Ron Hextall announced this morning that the team has recalled forward Colin McDonald from the Lehigh Valley Phantoms of the AHL. McDonald, 32, has yet to appear in the NHL this season but has 145 NHL games on his resume, a vast majority coming as a member of the New York Islanders. He is expected to be in the team’s lineup tonight as the Flyers are set to host their Metro Division rivals, the New Jersey Devils. McDonald, the Phantoms captain, has tallied 23 goals with 18 assists in 67 AHL games and has helped the team to the third best record in the league. The recall of McDonald seems strange on the surface, as Dave Isaac of the Courier-Post notes via Twitter. The team has plenty of healthy options and a lengthy stay in Philadelphia may have a negative impact on the Phantoms AHL playoff chances. Perhaps it’s a reward for the veteran pro, who has had a strong season, giving him a chance to earn a larger paycheck while in the NHL, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him returned to Lehigh Valley after tonight’s game.
- Joel Vermin continues to rack up the frequent flyer miles as the 25-year-old native of Switzerland was again reassigned to Syracuse of the AHL, according to Lightning GM Steve Yzerman. Vermin has been called up seven different times this season, only to be reassigned each time. In 16 games for Tampa Bay, Vermin has tallied three assists in 10:00 of ice time per night. Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times suggests the reassignment bodes well for Nikita Kucherov, who missed the Lightning’s victory over Detroit Thursday night due to an illness, but would appear set to return to the ice tonight.
- The St. Louis Blues announced via Twitter that they have recalled defenseman Petteri Lindbohm from the Chicago Wolves of the AHL on an emergency basis. Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch adds that fellow blue liner Robert Bortuzzo was hurt in last night’s 2 – 1 shootout loss to Colorado and may not be able to play tomorrow. Additionally, Carl Gunnarsson is still out, thus necessitating the call up of Lindbohm. In five earlier appearances this season with the Blues, Lindbohm is pointless with four penalty minutes while averaging under 13 minutes of ice time a night.
Lightning Injury Notes: Stamkos, Johnson, Kucherov
Injuries are a harsh reality in the NHL and something each team is forced to deal with each season. Tampa Bay, however, has perhaps experienced more than their fair share of health woes this season, losing captain Steven Stamkos and gritty, two-way winger Ryan Callahan for much of the year. In addition, the team has had to manage at times without stalwart defenseman Anton Stralman as well as top-six forwards Tyler Johnson and Nikita Kucherov for short stretches this season because of injuries. All told, the Lightning have used 33 different skaters this season with 30 appearing in at least 10 games.
While the injuries have derailed what many pundits thought would be a Stanley Cup contender, the Lighting have displayed tremendous resiliency and remain within striking distance of a postseason berth. Currently three points behind Boston for the final playoff spot in the east, Tampa Bay’s chances might get a shot in the arm as the team enters the final stretch. As Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times writes, Stamkos is close to returning and may play as early as tonight when the Lightning host the Montreal Canadiens.
Stamkos has been skating with the club for the last while and according to Smith, was one of the last players to leave the ice at the team’s optional skate Thursday. He was expected to be reevaluated yesterday and if all checks out, he could be in the Lightning lineup for the first time in nearly five months for tonight’s contest. Of course with another game slated for Sunday, head coach Jon Cooper would likely have to monitor the captain’s minutes but Stamkos’ return would certainly represent a much-needed boost to Tampa’s playoff chances.
- In the same article, Smith also touches on the status of center Tyler Johnson, who has missed the last 10 games with a lower-body injury. He finally joined Stamkos and the rest of his teammates on the ice for the first time in three weeks on Thursday and while that is a positive development, Smith points out that it’s “hard to tell” whether Johnson will be able to suit up this weekend following just one optional skating session. Johnson has posted 19 goals and 44 points in 64 games and is an important player in the team’s top-six as well as on the power play.
- Perhaps Tampa Bay’s best player, at least with Stamkos sidelined, Nikita Kucherov sat out Tampa Bay’s 5 – 3 win over Detroit Thursday night due to an illness. Smith notes that the bug has made it’s rounds over the last couple of months in Tampa, afflicting Jason Garrison and Victor Hedman as well as Cooper at various points. The hope is that Kucherov will be ready to go tonight. The 23-year-old Russian may well merit MVP consideration with his performance this season. Through 68 appearances, Kucherov has 38 goals and 80 points while averaging a career-high 19:34 of ice time per night. A healthy Kucherov along with the potential returns of Stamkos and Johnson would certainly make the team’s attach much more formidable and presuming the team is able to squeak into the playoffs, the Lightning should be a challenging out in the first round.
Lightning Notes: Yzerman, Callahan, Stamkos
It was a successful trade deadline for the Tampa Bay Lightning, who moved Valtteri Filppula, Brian Boyle and Ben Bishop out of town to create cap space for this season and beyond. The team finds themselves just three points back of a playoff spot after Nikita Kucherov‘s disgusting shootout winner, and is right in the thick of the race as the season comes into its final stretch.
Just because the deadline is over though, doesn’t mean Steve Yzerman can relax. He still has quite a bit of work ahead of him to sort out the cap issues the Lightning will face this summer reports Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times. With Jonathan Drouin, Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson all needing big raises (that are getting bigger as the playoffs get closer), the team will likely have to move out even more salary at some point. Smith points to the Nashville Predators as a natural trading partner for the team, and that they scouted each other heavily leading up to the deadline.
- Ryan Callahan may miss the rest of the season, but there is optimism he’ll be ready for next year. The latest hip procedure was not to repair a labrum tear like originally reported, but just to clean up a scar tissue issue that was impacting his movement. Smith quotes Bryan Kelly, the surgeon who performed both operations: “There’s no reason to think [players who go through this procedure] couldn’t go back to play.” Callahan has three years remaining on his current contract at $5.8MM per season.
- Though Smith’s article is enlightening on many subjects, he drops a bombshell in the notes at the bottom. Smith “would not be stunned” to see Steven Stamkos back at practice with the team this week. Stamkos has been out since the middle of November, but has recently returned to the ice for his own workouts. The idea that he would be back at practice with his teammates would be a huge step towards his recovery, and makes the Lightning a team to watch down the stretch. Even without one of the greatest goal scorers in the league they’ve climbed their way back into the playoff picture, imagine what they can do when their captain returns.
Tampa Bay Lightning Deadline, Expansion Notes
The Tampa Bay Lightning have had a ton of success the past few seasons, winning at least 46 games three straight seasons and making a Stanley Cup final in 2015. Today, they find themselves in last place in the Atlantic division and one point out of the bottom of the conference. They’re 2-7-1 in their last 10, and haven’t been able to find any consistency at either end of the ice.
When looking at the rest of their season, it’s not all bad. Despite being close to the bottom of the conference, they’re also just four points back of the Maple Leafs for the last wildcard spot (though they’ve played 48 games, four more than the Leafs). They should get Steven Stamkos back at some point, though depending on when he returns (likely mid-March) it may be too late.
When looking at their roster, they have very few expiring deals to sell off at the deadline. Ben Bishop would be a big chip, though most Cup contenders already have a #1 installed firmly in net. He’s also struggled through inconsistency and injury this season, making him a hard player to value for the back half of the season. Brian Boyle is a UFA this summer, and while he’s have a nice season he likely isn’t the 20 goal scorer he once was for New York. He’d be attractive to some teams to plug into a bottom-six, but wouldn’t bring much back.
The biggest problem for the Lightning though may be the upcoming expansion draft, where they will have a tough time protecting their current assets up front. Since Stamkos, Victor Hedman, Ryan Callahan and Valtteri Filppula all have no-movement clauses and come with automatic protection, the team has just four forward spots left to protect.
Nikita Kucherov and Jonathan Drouin are locks to be protected, meaning there are two slots left for the crop of forwards including Alex Killorn, Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, and Vladislav Namestnikov among others (many, many others). Losing one of those players for nothing would be a questionable move, meaning GM Steve Yzerman may be busy in the next month positioning his team better for the draft.
Adding a defenseman is a big need for the Bolts, and if they could find one that is exempt from the draft (meaning a young, first or second year player) it would be advantageous. Johnson could likely have fetched a huge price two years ago coming off his 29-goal, 72 point 2014-15, but after the struggles last year and a perceived step backwards defensively it may be selling low on him. He’s an RFA again this summer meaning he’ll be looking for a big-money deal, but perhaps the team could get a better price after letting him play out the rest of the regular season and (hopefully) topping the 50 point mark once again.
Killorn just signed a new deal this summer that locked him up for seven years, which may scare some teams off after a sluggish first half. Palat, though also not having a huge year probably has a bigger upside than Killorn and is two years younger. Though he’s also up for a new deal this summer as an RFA, the Lightning would likely need a big offer to pry him away.
If the team still thinks that it can compete in the Eastern Conference playoffs once Stamkos is back, perhaps they don’t need to sell one of their forwards for help down the line but with the draft looming and this season slipping away they may end up shipping out a well-known name.
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